Thursday, February 3, 2011

The NFL Blog: 2010 Super Bowl Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (2-0); Straight Up: (2-0)

Season: Vs. Spread (131-129-6); Straight Up: (164-102)

Championship Round Review: Well, I guess it was a good week for me picking games. But it was my least favorite Championship Sunday ever.

Super Bowl Preview: This is a free one for me, as I’ve already clinched an above .500 record. It’s an interesting matchup with two great teams, histories, and fan bases. It should be a great game as well. But for the first time in many years I have to admit that I don’t care at all which team wins.

As you know if you've reading my blog over the last month, my betting line entries have been a bit different in the postseason. Since the conference championship games are obviously special games, the summaries of last Sunday's games are fairly extensive. For those of you who aren't looking for an in depth, play-by-play account of what happened, you may want to skip ahead to the next section.

Super Bowl XLV

Pittsburgh (+2.5) vs. Green Bay

Pick: Packers win but Steelers beat the spread.

Comment: I think it’s fairly safe to expect a tight, entertaining game. It’s been a while since we’ve had a total blowout in the Super Bowl, and many of the Super Bowls in the last 15 years or so have gone down to the wire. And these teams would appear to be evenly matched. It will be interesting to see how the relatively inexperienced Packers handle the bright lights of the Super Bowl.

Records and Trends

Pittsburgh: The Steelers are now 14-4 overall and 12-6 ATS. They have a +8.6 average scoring differential. Pittsburgh has won 4 straight and 4 straight ATS.

Green Bay: The Packers are now 13-6 overall and 12-7 ATS. They have a super +9.9 average scoring differential. Green Bay has won 5 in a row and 3 straight ATS.

Pittsburgh’s Championship Round Game

The Steelers were 4 point favorites at home last Sunday, hosting the Jets, who had already won on the road against Peyton Manning and the Colts and Tom Brady and the Patriots. In addition, the Jets had just won at Pittsburgh in week 15. The game started with the Jets looking shell shocked and the Steelers making it look surprisingly easy. By the time it was all over things had tightened up and become something close to the battle we expected.

The Steelers outscored the Jets 7-0 in the 1st quarter and 17-3 in the 2nd, but the Jets outscored Pittsburgh 7-0 in the 3rd and 9-0 in the 4th. The Steelers scored the first 24 points in the game, shutting out the Jets until New York got on the board with 9 seconds to play in the 1st half. The Jets would outscore Pittsburgh 19-0 the rest of the way. In fact, the Jets ended up outgaining the Steelers in total yards, 289-287, although Pittsburgh had a 23-17 edge in 1st downs. The Steelers dominated the matchup on the ground, out-rushing New York 166-70. The Jets ended up holding a 219-121 edge in passing yards. Pittsburgh was 6 for 11 on 3rd downs (0 for 1 on 4th), while the Jets went 5 for 14 on 3rd down (2 for 3 on 4th down). Both teams had a pair of sacks and the Jets won the turnover battle 2-1. Penalties would play a big role in this contest. Pittsburgh committed 4 penalties for 25 yards, while the Jets were called for 6 penalties for 50 yards. The Steelers went 2 for 3 scoring TD’s in the red zone; the Jets were 1 for 2. Pittsburgh had almost a 9 and a half minute edge in time of possession (34:41-25:19).

The Steelers got the ball first, and right away it looked like the Jets defense had forced a 3-and-out, as Ben Roethlisberger fired incomplete on 3rd and 7 from the Pittsburgh 37. However, Antonio Cromartie was called for illegal hands to the face and the Steelers got a 1st down at the 42. That turned out to be huge. On 3rd and 5 from the 47, Big Ben hit Mike Wallace for 6 yards and 1st down in Jets territory. On 1st down from the 23, Big Ben hit Heath Miller with a completion that gave the Steelers a 1st and goal at the 2, but the Jets challenged and the play was overturned. On 3rd and 12 from the 25, Roethlisberger scrambled and got just enough for a 1st down at the 13, picking up 12 yards. On 2nd down and 5 from the 8, Hines Ward caught a pass for 7 yards to give Pittsburgh a 1st and goal from the 1. However, Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey was hurt on the play and would not return. This would have a noticeable effect on things later in the game. Rashard Mendenhall scored on the next play to make it 7-0, capping off a 66 yard drive, during which the Steelers had run 15 plays and taken 9:06 off the clock. It was just about the worst start possible for New York.

When the Jets finally got the ball they got faced a huge 3rd down right away. On 3rd and 10 from the 27, Mark Sanchez found Jerricho Cotchery for 14 yards and a 1st down at the 41. An illegal contact penalty moved the ball to the 46. On 2nd and 9 from the 47, Sanchez threw incomplete, but Ike Taylor was hit for pass interference, giving the Jets another 1st down at the Pittsburgh 43. On 3rd and 14 from the 47, Sanchez threw short to Cotchery but he only got 3 yards to the 44 and the Jets had to punt. Steve Weatherford was able to pin the Steelers at the 13 but now the new defense was back on the field.

On the first play of Pittsburgh’s 2nd possession, Mendenhall gained 11 yards for a big 1st down at the 24. Then on 2nd and 8 from the 26, Mendenhall ran for 18 more and a 1st down at the 44 on the final play of the 1st quarter. Early in the 2nd quarter the Jets were hit with another big penalty. On 2nd and 10 from the 44 Big Ben threw over the middle for Emmanuel Sanders. This was not a good decision, as David Harris was back in coverage and had the ball bounce off his hands in front of his face. It got worse for the Jets. Not only had Harris dropped a pick, but safety Eric Smith was flagged for an “unnecessary” hit on Sanders at the end of the play.

Smith and Sanders had been heading straight for a big collision, but when Harris broke up the pass, Smith pulled up, and simply stood his ground, turning his shoulder into Sanders as the receiver reached him. What Smith did was exactly what officials are taught to do if they find themselves in that situation, unable to avoid a collision. For the safety of the official, they are taught to stand their ground and lean into the hit (this was the reason for the apparent forearm shiver delivered to a South Carolina player a few years back in a clip that became a YouTube hit). The official saw the collision, saw Sanders on the ground writhing, and saw Smith standing. He threw the flag based on this, assuming that Smith had chosen to make the collision happen, when in fact, he had pulled up and tried to avoid a collision.

The penalty gave the Steelers a 1st down at the Jets 41. New York was in jeopardy of falling into a big hole, but the defense stepped up at this point. On 3rd and 1 from the 32, Mendenhall was stopped for no gain. The Steelers lined up to go for it on 4th and 1 and Big Ben tried to drop a short pass off into traffic to Mendenhall and Bryan Thomas intercepted at the 34. The Jets took over at their own 35, still down just 7-0.

The Jets needed to keep the ball away from Pittsburgh for a while, just to give their own defense a rest. Unfortunately for them, they weren’t able to do it. They ran Cotchery around the left on the first play after the change of possession and Taylor and James Harrison threw him for a loss of 4 yards. A false start penalty backed the Jets up another 5 yards. On 3rd and 12 from the 33 Sanchez threw incomplete and the Jets had to punt after a 3-and-out. Weatherford’s kick went out of bounds at the Pittsburgh 38.

On 2nd and 10 following the punt, Big Ben threw to Mendenhall and he took it all the way down to the Jets 27 for a 35 yard pickup. Then Ike Redman got a couple of carries and picked up 8 yards and then 13 yards on back to back plays. That gave Pittsburgh a 1st and goal at the 6. Here, the Jets defense again kept the team in the game. On 3rd and goal from the 2, Big Ben’s pass was batted down by Smith, and on 4th and goal from the 2 the Steelers sent out Shaun Suisham for a 20 yard FG to make it 10-0.

After hitting the chip shot field goal, Suisham committed an error, kicking the ball out of bounds on the ensuing kickoff. The Jets now took over at their own 40 with 6:51 to go in the half. It felt like a huge possession for New York. However, the Steelers again forced a 3-and-out, as Sanchez threw incomplete on 3rd and 7 from the 43, and the Jets had to punt again. Antwaan Randle-El returned the punt 10 yards to give Pittsburgh decent field position at their 34. Pittsburgh threatened again right away. On 2nd down from the 34, Big Ben hit Miller for 24 yards and a 1st down at the Jets 42. On 2nd and 7 from the 39, Roethlisberger got it to Emmanuel Sanders for a gain of 20 and a 1st down at the 19. Then on 2nd and 7, Mendenhall caught a short pass and ran to the 2 for a pickup of 14 and a 1st and goal. On the next play, Big Ben ran into the end zone for a touchdown to make it 17-0 with exactly 2 minutes to go in the half.

The Jets got the ball back at their own 33 with 1:53 left in the half. The Steelers had every ounce of momentum. It only got worse, as Sanchez was sacked by LaMarr Woodley on the very first play of the drive, dropping him back at the 26 for a loss of 7. The Jets were going nowhere fast but they couldn’t afford to be conservative. On 3rd and 17 from the 26, Sanchez snapped the ball with 1:23 left in the half and dropped back to throw. Rather than playing safe, the Steelers came with a huge and exotic blitz. Taylor got through and hit Sanchez from behind as he was trying to throw at the 20. Taylor’s hit on Sanchez jarred the ball loose but Sanchez’s fingers were still on the ball and the motion of his arm sent the ball sailing way over towards the sideline. Then William Gay made the sort of play that separates the pro game from all other levels of tackle football. Gay had also been coming on the blitz from Sanchez’s blindside, and LaDainian Tomlinson had picked him up and blocked him behind the QB. But when the ball was knocked away, Gay sprinted to it, picked it up at the 19, waited for some of his mates to pass him to his right, and then brought it back, cutting up and to his right into the end zone for a touchdown. Heinz Field was in a frenzy again. The play went to review, and it was close, but the “empty hand” rule meant that it was upheld, and the Steelers had a 24-0 lead with just 1:13 remaining in the half. The game appeared to be over.

Facing a seemingly insurmountable deficit, the Jets got the ball back at their own 31 with 1:08 on the clock. The Jets were getting throttled and Sanchez had been shaken up on the fumble. But to New York’s credit, they did not merely tuck it in and try and get things turned around at halftime. They had 3 timeouts. Sanchez completed a pass to Dustin Keller for 5 yards on the first play of the drive, and then went to Brad Smith on the next play for a gain of 16 and a 1st down in Pittsburgh territory at the 48. Smith was able to get out of bounds with 39 ticks left. On the next play, Sanchez hit Smith for 9 yards and the Jets called a timeout with 33 seconds on the clock.

Sanchez fired incomplete on the next play but Bryan McFadden was called for illegal contact, giving the Jets a 1st down at the 34 with 28 seconds left. Then Sanchez and Keller hooked up again for a gain of 9 and the Jets burned their 2nd timeout with 23 seconds to go. With only 1 timeout left, Sanchez threw incomplete on the next 2 plays, leaving 4th and 1 from the 25 with just 14 seconds to go in the half. The Jets decided to settle for a 42 yard field goal try. Nick Folk hit it to get New York on the board with 9 seconds to play in the 2nd quarter. Following the kickoff the Steelers took a knee and headed to the locker room up 24-3. It had been a surprisingly one-sided half.

The field goal just before halftime may have seemed like an insignificant gesture for pride at the time, but it did change the lead from a 4 score deficit (barring 3 touchdowns and 2-point conversions) to a 3 score deficit. This was particularly important because the Jets would get the ball first in the 2nd half. They would be facing essentially a must-score possession, and another field goal wouldn’t really do them any good. They needed a touchdown. With this in mind, things couldn’t have gone much worse on the kickoff, as Smith ended up with a net return of -1, forcing the Jets to start at their own 10. They would have to go 90 yards.

Things got much brighter right off the bat, as they finally got something on the ground. On the first play of the 2nd half, Shaunn Greene ran for 23 yards, moving the ball out to the 33. Then on 3rd and 4 from the 39, the Jets got a conversion they had to have, as Sanchez hit Santonio Holmes for a pickup of 16 and a 1st down at the Pittsburgh 45. On the next play, Sanchez rolled out and Holmes got behind the Pittsburgh secondary. Sanchez got it to him for a 45 yard TD bomb to make it 24-10. Suddenly, the Jets had life. They had gone 90 yards in 5 plays over just 2:47.

The Jets continued to gain momentum on Pittsburgh’s first possession of the 2nd half, although they missed another chance for a pick. On 3rd and 2 from the 36, Roethlisberger threw a slant to his right and Darelle Revis stepped up directly in the path of the ball, but it hit him in the face mask and fell incomplete. Still, the Jets defense had forced a 3-and-out. Jeremy Kapinos came on to punt and booted it to the 24. However, Jamaal Westerman was hit with a devastating roughing the kicker penalty, giving the Steelers a 1st down at the Jets 49.

Like the first Pittsburgh possession of the game, the first of the 2nd half had ended in an apparent 3-and-out, only to have a penalty extend the drive. Then on 3rd and 6 from the 45, Big Ben dropped a pass off to Mewelde Moore for 9 yards and another 1st down at the 36. But then the injury to Pouncey came into play. Roethlisberger fumbled the snap from Doug Legursky and fell on it at the 37. On the next play, Big Ben went deep and Brodney Poole intercepted at the 5. Poole returned it to the 14. In the end, the Jets lost 10 yards of field position due to the penalty for roughing the kicker, but more importantly, they lost about 2 and a half minutes of time.

The Steelers needed to do something to get momentum back in their favor and the defense came through. On 3rd and 7 from the 17, Sanchez threw incomplete for a 3-and-out. The Jets had to punt it right back to Pittsburgh. Randle-El muffed the punt but it went out of bounds to give the Steelers the ball at their own 30.

Pittsburgh’s offense was not able to do much in the 2nd half, in part because they backed off a bit in an attempt to protect the big lead and not make mistakes. But the Jets also played much better defensively and the Steelers weren’t as good offensively. However, on this possession, when a score would have put the Jets away for good, the Steelers were at least able to hold the ball for a while and eat up another big chunk of time. On 3rd and 4 from the 36, Big Ben scrambled for 5 to pick up the 1st down. Then on 3rd and 3 from the 48, Big Ben scrambled and picked up 5 again, and defensive holding on Cromartie moved the ball to the New York 42.

At this point the Jets defense turned things around. On the next play, Calvin Pace finally got to Big Ben for a loss of 7. Then Moore was cut down by David Harris for a loss of 3. With the ball now back in Pittsburgh territory, Big Ben dropped back on 3rd and 20 and got sacked by Trevor Pryce for a loss of 5. Kapinos punted, forcing a fair catch at the 19. There was just 50 seconds left in the 3rd quarter.

Time was running out but the Jets were still only down 2 scores. On the first play of their next possession, Sanchez hit Braylon Edwards over the middle for 18 yards and a 1st down at the 37. LT ran for 5 yards on the final play of the 3rd quarter. On the first play of the 4th quarter, Sanchez went to Keller for 19 yards and a 1st down at the Pittsburgh 39. On 3rd and 4 from the 33 Sanchez found Keller again for 6 yards and a huge 1st down at the 27.

The Jets faced a 3rd and 3 from the 20, and this time they ran for it, with Greene gaining 2 yards to the 18. On 4th and 1, Greene carried again and again gained 2 yards for a 1st down at the 16. But on the next play, Sanchez fumbled the shotgun snap and it ended up as a loss of 8, all the way back to the 24. However, the Jets crossed the defense up on the next play, with Greene carrying for 16 yards, running over 2 Steelers along the way, setting up 3rd and 2 from the 8. Sanchez went to the old reliable Cotchery with a horizontal pass to the right on 3rd down and the play was good for 6 yards and a 1st and goal at the 2.

Greene got the carry on 1st and goal and moved the ball to the 1. On 2nd and goal from the 1, Sanchez threw incomplete. This was the play that got the Jets into trouble. Had they ran Greene up the middle or even ran Sanchez on a sneak on 2nd down from the 1, they may well have scored, and if not they might have at least moved it to about a half of a yard out. That would have left them 2 plays to either sneak it or give it to a running back and have him try and jump and stretch it over the goal line. But now they were still a full yard away and it was 3rd down. So the Jets tried another pass, this time a quick inside slant to the right, but Woodley read the play perfectly and jumped up and batted it down at the line. Two pass plays hadn’t worked, so on 4th and goal from the 1, the Jets ran Tomlinson up the middle. Pittsburgh sold out completely against the run and when Tomlinson hit the line he was forced up. There was no chance to jump or try and reach the ball over the line. The Steelers took over just outside of their end zone with 7:44 remaining. Almost half of the quarter had melted away and the Jets were no closer.

On the first play following the goal line stand the injury to Pouncey factored into things again, as the Steelers fumbled another snap. Big Ben fell on it in the end zone to avoid disaster but it was a safety. The score was now 24-12 with 7:38 remaining and the Jets were going to get it back.

While the play obviously had to pick up the spirits of both the Jets and their fans across the country, in reality, it didn’t come anywhere close to making up for the failure to score after a 1st and goal from the 2. To begin with, the 2-points really didn’t help the Jets at all. Going from being down 14 to being down 12 didn’t change the fact that they would need 2 touchdowns in the final 7 and a half minutes to catch Pittsburgh. Obviously, if they were able to do it they would now be ahead of the Steelers instead of just tying them. But that didn’t really improve their chances of not losing. The Jets chances of completing the comeback had dropped dramatically from the moment that they had 1st and goal at the 2 to the moment they turned it over on downs, and the safety didn’t raise their chances very much. A TD would have made it a 1 score game with still almost 8 minutes to go. It was now still a 2 score game with almost 8 minutes to go.

If given the choice when the Jets took over at their 19 late in the 3rd, the Steelers would gladly have traded 2 points in exchange for 8 minutes of clock being eaten away. Furthermore, the safety meant that the Steelers would get a free kick from the 20. Had they simply gone 3-and-out they would have been punting from the back of their own end zone, meaning there would be a possibility of the Jets blocking the punt for a touchdown or returning the punt for a touchdown or even just getting super field position. Looking at it now, if the Steelers couldn’t get a 1st down, a safety was probably the next best option.

Following the free kick, the Jets took over with good field position at their own 42 with 7:36 remaining. On the 1st play of the possession, Sanchez hit Edwards for 22 yards. Just like that the Jets were at the Pittsburgh 36. The Steelers defense stiffened, but on 4th and 1 from the 27, Sanchez hit Edwards again for 10 yards and a 1st down at the 17. On 3rd and 4 from the 11, Sanchez found Keller for 5 yards, setting up 1st and goal from the 6. This time the Jets got it in the end zone. On 2nd and goal from the 4, Sanchez hit Cotchery for a TD to make it 24-19 with 3:06 to play.

The Jets had gone 58 yards in 10 plays but the drive had taken 4:32. From the moment they were stopped on 4th and goal from the 1 to the moment they scored the TD, the time remaining had gone from 7:44 to 3:06. They still had enough time to avoid the onside kick but obviously now they had very little room for error. The first mistake came on the kickoff. Aaron Brown fielded New York’s kickoff at the 14 and returned it 27 yards to give the Steelers good field position at the 41 with 2:56 to play. It actually would have been better for Folk to kick the ball out of bounds, as that would have put the ball at the 40 without 10 seconds running off the clock.

The Steelers gave the ball to Mendenhall on the first play as expected and the Jets stopped him for a gain of 1. They called their first timeout with 2:50 remaining. Field position came into play here, as the Steelers were able to be more aggressive on 2nd and 9 from the 42 than they likely would have been on 2nd and 9 from the 21. Big Ben took the snap and dropped back to throw. He hit Miller for a gain of 14 yards and a huge 1st down at the New York 44. The Jets had to burn their 2nd timeout with 2:43 to play.

Again, field position was huge here. The Steelers were now in a position to force the Jets to use their last timeout and the 2-minute warning, and even if the Jets held them on 3rd down, the Steelers could punt and at worst force the Jets to go 80 yards with no timeouts in a minute and change. As expected, Mendenhall got the ball on the next play, and the Jets stopped him after a gain of 2 and called their last timeout with 2:38 left. Mendenhall carried again on the next play and again picked up 2 yards. The clock ran down to the 2-minute warning, with the Steelers facing 3rd and 6 from the New York 40.

Not to be repetitive, but field position was again key here. A first down would end the game and the Steelers had the option of going for it, with the only risk being the Jets having 1:50 or so to drive the length of the field instead of 1:20 or so. They went for the win and Big Ben hit Brown for 14 yards and a 1st down at the 26. It was over and Rex Ryan knew it. Roethlisberger kneeled it 3 times to finish off the 24-19 victory.

Big Ben once again made enough plays to get the job done, but it would be tough to say that he had a good game. He ended up completing 10 of 19 passes for 133 yards, no TD’s, and 2 picks for a 35.5 passer rating. He did run 11 times for 21 yards and a TD. Mendenhall rushed 27 times for 127 yards and a score, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He also caught 2 passes for 32 yards. Miller caught 2 passes for 38 yards. Suisham was 1 for 1 on FG tries and Kapinos put his only punt inside the 20. Taylor had 3 tackles and a huge sack/forced fumble. Woodley had 3 tackles and a sack. And Gay made 2 tackles and returned a fumble 19 yards for a TD.

Sanchez was actually pretty impressive in this game. He completed 20 of 33 passes for 233 yards and 2 TD’s with no picks for a 102.2 rating. He did lose a fumble. Greene ran 9 times for 52 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. On the other hand, Tomlinson was a total non-factor. He ran 9 times for just 16 yards and did not catch a pass. Keller caught 8 passes for 64 yards; Holmes caught 2 passes for 61 yards and a TD; Edwards made 3 catches for 50 yards; and Cotchery caught 5 passes for 33 yards and a score. Folk was 1 for 1 on FG tries and Weatherford put 1 of his 4 punts inside the 20. Pool made 6 tackles and had a pick. Thomas also had a pick. Pace and Pryce had a sack a piece.

Green Bay’s Championship Round Game

The red hot Packers came into last Sunday’s game having already beaten the Eagles and the Falcons on the road. Still, it surprised some that they were actually 3.5 point favorites on the road against the Bears last week. The two teams had split the season series, and when the Packers did beat the Bears in week 17, it was at home, by a score of 10-3, when they needed a win to get into the playoffs and the Bears had absolutely nothing to gain.

The two conference championship games were remarkably similar. Like the AFC game later in the day, this one looked surprisingly easy for the favored team early on. But despite the loss of their starting QB, the Bears fought their way back into the game and made things competitive in the end.

The Packers outscored the Bears 7-0 in the 1st quarter and 7-0 in the 2nd. After a scoreless 3rd quarter, the Bears outscored Green Bay 14-7 in the 4th. It was 14-0 Green Bay until the 12:02 point in the 4th. From then on the Bears outscored the Packers 14-7. Green Bay ended up outgaining the Bears 356-301 and they had a 23-17 edge in 1st downs. The Packers outgained Chicago 120-83 on the ground and 236-218 through the air. The Pack had just over an 8 minute edge in time of possession (34:04-25:56). Green Bay won the sack battle 2-1 and the turnover battle 3-2. Neither team had much success on 3rd down, with the Packers going 2 for 11 (did not attempt a 4th down conversion) and the Bears going 1 for 13 (1 for on 4th down). The Packers were 2 for 3 scoring TD’s in the red zone, while the Bears went 1 for 1. Green Bay committed 6 penalties for 40 yards; the Bears were hit with 9 penalties for 89 yards.


As unbelievable as Aaron Rodgers had been against Atlanta, during the days leading up to the game with Chicago, many people had said that he simply would not be able to do the same thing against the Bears defense. But on Green Bay’s first possession, Rodgers picked up right where he left off the week before, making it look easy. The Packers started at their own 16, and on the first play, Rodgers hit Greg Jennings for 22 yards. He hit Jennings for 26 yards on the next play. Then James Starks got a carry and picked up 6. He picked up 6 more on the next play. On the next play Rodgers went back to the air and hit Jordy Nelson for 22 yards, setting up first and goal at the 2. On 2nd and goal from the 1, Rodgers bootlegged left and went around the end and put the ball over the line in the corner by the pylon for a touchdown to make it 7-0 Green Bay just like that. They went 84 yards in just 4:10 on only 7 plays.

After Green Bay’s impressive opening drive, the Bears got off to a good start in their attempt to answer the score. On 2nd and 8 from the 39, Jay Cutler dropped a pass off to Matt Forte and he went 29 yards to the Green Bay 37. But on 3rd and 7 from the 34, Cutler went deep for Devin Hester and overthrew him. The Bears punted and Green Bay got the ball back at their own 10.

On the first play of their 2nd possession, Starks went around left end for 16 yards and a 1st down out at the 26. Green Bay neared midfield with a 1st and 10 at the 47, but Rodgers then threw 3 straight incompletions and the Packers brought out Tim Masthay. The punter would play a key role in their victory. His first punt backed Hester up to the 13 and he only managed to bring it out to the 16. He would be contained all day.

Chicago’s 2nd drive began with a false start. They ran it twice to set up 3rd and 6 from the 20, but Cullen Jenkins and Clay Matthews got to Cutler for a sack at the 15 and Chicago had to punt after a 3-and-out. Tramon Williams returned the punt 11 yards to give the Packers excellent field position at their 49. On the first play after the punt, Rodgers found Jennings again for 21 yards and a 1st down at the 30. But on 3rd and 7 from the 27 Brian Urlacher wrapped up Rodgers at the 35 for a sack and a loss of 8. Green Bay had to punt again. This time Masthay pinned the Bears at their own 3. A holding penalty during the kick backed Chicago up to the 2.

The 1st quarter ended with the Bears facing another 3rd and long from deep in their own territory. On 3rd and 8 from the 4, the Bears gave it to Forte and Jenkins knocked him for a 2 yard loss. Brad Maynard got the punt away while standing in the back of the end zone. It looked like the Packers might have tremendous field position, but the ball bounced off of Williams at the 39 and he had to go back and retrieve it at the 50. He made it back to the 44, giving the Packers great field position for a 3rd straight possession. This time the Packers took advantage. On 2nd and 13 from the 47, Rodgers dropped a pass off to Brandon Jackson and he went for 16 yards to the 31. Starks then ran for 12, Rodgers hit Nelson for 15 to the 4, and on the next play Starks ran right and reached the ball over the goal line for the touchdown to make it 14-0.

The Bears desperately needed to answer. They began their 4th possession at their own 34, and on the 1st play, Cutler found Johnny Knox down the left sideline for 24 yards and a 1st down in Green Bay territory. On 2nd and 10 from the 42, Cutler dropped a pass off to Chester Taylor for 12 yards and a 1st down at the 30. On the next play, Cutler dropped back and had Devin Hester open near the right corner of the goal line. Had he made an accurate pass, Hester would have either scored or gone out of bounds inside the 5. But Cutler threw it out of bounds. Rashied Davis caught a pass for 13 yards on the next play, but a hold on Taylor made it 2nd and 21 from the 41. Cutler scrambled for 9 yards on the next play, but on 3rd down he was brought down after a gain of only 1, bring up 4th and 11 from the 31. The Bears punted and Maynard put it in the end zone for a touchback, meaning Chicago had gained 11 yards of field position.

It might have seemed that the Bears played it a bit too safe in punting from the 31, especially with Robbie Gould kicking. But in that weather and on that field, a 48 yard FG try would be somewhat of a risk to take when it would only make the score 14-3 and a miss would give Green Bay the ball near midfield again. Maybe they should have just gone for it on 4th and 11. In the end, it looked like a bad decision. The Packers wound up getting the ball at the 20, Starks ran for 10 yards on the first play, and then Rodgers scrambled for a gain of 25 yards to the Chicago 45 on the next play. Now it was Green Bay’s turn to play it really (really) safe. On 3rd and 1 from the 36, the Packers ran Starks to the right and he gained nothing. Leading 14-0, the Packers then punted on 4th and 1 from the 36. It turned out better for the Pack, as Masthay pinned the Bears at the 11, but clearly Green Bay was feeling confident about their 14-0 lead.

The Bears offense continued to struggle, as Cutler threw incomplete on 2nd down from the 11, but defensive holding on Williams gave them a 1st down at the 16. On 2nd down from the 16, Forte ran to the 30 for a gain of 14. Following the 2-minute warning, Cutler dropped back to throw on 3rd and 7 from the 33. Sam Shields came on a late blitz and rocked Cutler at the 25, knocking the ball free. This was the first of several big plays turned in by Shields. Forte actually scooped the ball up at the 23 and started to try and make something of the play, but due to rules concerning 3rd down fumbles with less than 2 minutes left in the half, the play was blown dead. Chicago punted and the Packers took over at their 36 with 1:44 on the clock.

The Packers had 1 timeout remaining and Rodgers scrambled again for 12 yards on the first play after the punt. On 3rd and 1 from the Bears 43, Rodgers ran again and picked up 2 yards for a 1st down at the 41. Out of a no-huddle, Rodgers dropped back and fired out to the left for Donald Driver. The throw was low and Driver bent down to catch it but it bounced hard off of his hands and right into the hands of Lance Briggs at the 38. Briggs went down at the 42 with 49 seconds left in the half. The Bears had a pair of timeouts in their pocket, and on the first play after the turnover, Forte caught a pass for 17 yards and got out of bounds at the Green Bay 41 with 42 seconds left.

The Bears still had 2 timeouts and 42 seconds to work with, but on the next play, Cutler decided to take a shot, firing deep down the left sideline for Knox. Cutler had time and protection to throw, but he threw the ball as he was backing up, and Knox—while he was matched up in single coverage—was never really open. Shields reached up and intercepted at the 3. After hitting the turf, he got up and returned the ball to the 11 with 32 seconds left. The play was upheld under replay, and afterwards, Cutler headed to the locker room with a few staff members, apparently suffering from some sort of injury. The Packers had 2 timeouts left but they decided to take a knee and head to the half with a 14-0 lead.

The Packers had basically dominated the 1st half, but they had failed to put the game away, despite numerous chances. The Bears would get the ball first in the 2nd half, and Hester returned the kick 24 yards to give Chicago good field position at their 40. On 3rd and 4 from the 46, Cutler dropped back to pass. He had time and he had Earl Bennett—who had come out of the backfield—open to the right, but Cutler went over the middle to Forte, again throwing while backing up, and it hit the dirt a few feet in front of his running back. A 3-and-out to start the 2nd half was not what Chicago had in mind, but the last pass by Cutler would have consequences beyond forcing a punt. Cutler, who had strained his MCL at some point during the first half, would not play another down.

Following Chicago’s 3-and-out, the Packers began their first possession of the 2nd half at their own 17. On 3rd and 8 from the 19, Rodgers hit Nelson for a gain of 21 yards and a 1st down at the 40. On the next play, Rodgers and Jennings hooked up again for 20 yards and a 1st down at the Chicago 40. Starks ran for 9 yards on the next play. On 3rd and 1 from the 31, Rodgers went deep for James Jones down the right sideline. He threw a perfect pass, and Tim Jennings was forced to hold Jones’ arm down in order to keep him from making the catch and probably scoring. Pass interference was called and the Packers had a 1st and goal at the 8.

Surely now they would put the game away. But two plays later they were facing 3rd and goal from the 6. Rodgers dropped to pass and stepped up the middle. He couldn’t run because it was 3rd and goal. So he looked for a place to fit the ball in over the middle and made a mistake. Brian Urlacher stepped in front and intercepted at the 6 and then headed up the right sideline. Rodgers sprinted towards the sideline, hoping to cut Urlacher off. The key to the play was that Rodgers was able to slow himself down, so that when Urlacher cut it back towards the middle, Rodgers was able to keep his feet long enough to put his arms around Urlacher’s legs and do enough to trip him up at the 45.

Had Rodgers simply gone full speed all the way, his legs would have gone out from under him when Urlacher cut. Had that happened, Urlacher may well have gone all the way for a touchdown, and the least he would have taken it deep inside Green Bay territory. As big of a play as this was, it would have been much bigger if Urlacher could have at least taken the ball back to Green Bay’s red zone, because Todd Collins was now going to enter the game at QB for the Bears.

His first series didn’t go well. He threw incomplete, then the cadence change caused a false start, than he threw incomplete again, and then on 3rd down he threw over the middle and was picked off by Nick Collins at the Green Bay 44. Chicago challenged and the play was ruled incomplete, but the Bears had to punt and the Packers got it back at their 21.

The Packers had dodged a bullet but they still hadn’t been able to put the game away. Their next drive began with Starks carrying for 8 yards, but a holding penalty wiped it out and made it 1st and 17 from the 14. On 2nd and 16 from the 15, the Packers came up with yet another soul crushing play, with Jennings making a catch for 22 yards and a 1st down at the 37. On 2nd down from the 39, Rodgers scrambled and got back to the line of scrimmage, but a holding penalty made it 2nd and 18 from the 29. On 3rd and 9 from the 38 Rodgers fired incomplete and the Packers had to punt. Masthay again did the job, backing Hester up to the 16, and he was brought down after just 2 yards at the 18.

Once again it was Collins who took the field for Chicago. They went 3-and-out again, as Collins threw incomplete on 3rd and 2. At this point the Packers nearly helped the Bears get back in it again. Williams fielded the punt at the 31 and was hit and lost the ball. The Packers fell on it at the 27. Not only that, but the Bears were actually called for an illegal man downfield, so the Packers got the ball at the 32. Bears fans had to be running low on hope.

But Chicago’s defense had settled in. On 2nd and 8 from the 34, the Packers gave the ball to Jackson and the Bears weren’t fooled. Urlacher dropped him for a loss of 5. On 3rd and 13 Rodgers fired incomplete for a 3-and-out. Once again, Masthay came through for the Packers. His punt backed Hester up to the 18 and the coverage dropped him all the way back at the 14 for a loss of 4. However, Green Bay was now hit with a costly penalty and they had to rekick. This time Bennett went back to return at the 11 and he brought it out 22 yards to the 33. Still a pretty solid effort by Masthay, but the Bears would have breathing room to work with.

It was at this point that the feel of the game changed. Green Bay’s inability to put the Bears away had to be causing their fans much disconcertment. But for unbiased observers, since the moment the Packers went ahead 14-0, there had not been a second when an eventual Green Bay win seemed in doubt. But now, with 57 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, having seen the veteran Collins fail miserably on two possessions, the Bears inserted 3rd year pro Caleb Hanie, a former undrafted free agent out of Colorado State. In 3 seasons he had played in 4 games, completing 8 of 14 passes for 66 yards, no TD’s, a pick and 2 sacks. He had not played since week 5. But he was not timid.

As you might expect, the Bears ran the ball on Hanie’s first few plays. Still, the Packers did not shut it down, as Forte gained 11 yards on 1st down, and then ran for 4 on the final play of the 3rd quarter. Haine threw his first pass on the first play of the 4th quarter, dropping one off to Forte for 8 yards and a 1st down at the Packers 44. On 2nd and 7 from the 41, Forte ran for 11 yards to take the ball to the 30. On the next play, Matthews ate Taylor up for a 3 yard loss, but on 2nd and 13, Hanie threw complete to Knox for 32 yards and a 1st and goal at the 1. On the next play, Taylor pushed into the end zone for a TD to put the Bears on the board and cut the deficit in half. They had moved 67 yards in 8 plays over just 3:55 and they were down just 14-7 with 12:02 remaining.

For the first time in the game, the pressure was now on Green Bay as they took over following the Bears TD. On 2nd and 9 from the 25, Rodgers went deep down the right seam incomplete, getting sandwiched as he released the ball. He was rocked on the play by Julius Peppers—who hit him in the jaw with the top of his helmet—and Lance Briggs—who brought his hand down on his facemask. It was a major shot, but it wasn’t all bad for Green Bay. Peppers was called for roughing the passer, so instead of 3rd and 9 from the 25, the Packers had a 1st and 10 at the 39.

After a false start, Rodgers threw over the middle for Driver incomplete, but Jennings was again called for pass interference, giving the Pack another 1st down at their 49. However, on 3rd and 2 from the Bears 43, Rodgers fired a bullet on a quick slant to Andrew Quarless and it went right through his hands. They had to punt and this time Masthay did not come through, sending it into the end zone for a touchback. Chicago took over at their 20 with 9:19 to go.

The Packers defense might have been playing soft on the previous Chicago possession but they turned things back on for Hanie’s 2nd drive. Forte was stopped for no gain on 1st down and then Hanie threw back to back incompletions for a quick 3-and-out. Maynard’s punt was not a great one and the Packers got the ball right back at the Chicago 44 with 8:22 to play. Once again they had a chance to put it away. But the Bears defense wouldn’t allow it. Rodgers may have been feeling the effects of the shot to the jaw, because on 3rd and 1 from the 35 he had Tom Crabtree open for a short completion and bounced it. Once again the Packers played it safe and punted on 4th and 1 from the 35. Masthay put this one out of bounds at the 10. The Packers had only managed to take a minute off the clock. The Bears took over with 7:22 to go.

Facing a 3rd and 5 from the 15, the Bears decided to take their first timeout and talk things over. On 3rd down, Hanie dropped back to pass and BJ Raji dropped into coverage. He picked Hanie off at the 18 and went into the end zone to make it 21-7 with 6:04 left, seemingly sending the Packers to the Super Bowl.

Things looked bleak for Chicago but Hanie wasn’t ready to give in. Davis returned the ensuing kickoff 16 yards to give the Bears solid field position at their 40. Hanie now went to work, often throwing on the run while eluding pressure. He hit Greg Olsen for 13 yards. Then he hit Bennett for 7. On 2nd and 3 he dropped one off to Forte for 5 yards and a 1st down. All of the sudden the Bears were at the 35 of Green Bay.

But it was on the next play that things got interesting. Hanie dropped back and fired a pass to the left side complete to Bennett. The Green Bay safety then turned it into a huge play, coming up too aggressively and whiffing on the tackle, allowing Bennett to go all the way into the end zone for the score to make it a 7 point game again with still 4:43 on the clock. Behind a 3rd string QB, the Bears had gone 60 yards in just 4 plays, using up only 1:21 of clock. It happened so fast it was almost as if the Bears had run the ball on 3rd down on the previous possession instead of throwing it and then punted, basically negating the pick-six by Raji.

Again the pressure was on Rodgers and the Green Bay offense as they took over at their 25 with 4:38 to play. Starks was stopped for no gain on 1st down. Then on 2nd down the play was strung out and he lost 2 and went out of bounds to stop the clock. On 3rd and 12 from the 23, the Packers put it in Rodgers hands but he couldn’t find anyone open. He tried to run but Urlacher was spying and he forced Rodgers to slide after a gain of only a yard. Masthay was called on to punt once again. Again Hester would have a chance, as Masthay boomed a punt to the 18. Hester brought it back to the 29. It was a decent return, but the fact that the Packers didn’t allow him to bring the ball out close to midfield may have been one of the more underappreciated plays of the game.

The Bears took over at their 29 with 2:53 remaining and 2 timeouts. On 3rd and 9, Hanie found Olsen for 10 yards and a 1st down at the 40. On the next play he showed his inexperience, getting called for intentional grounding to bring up 2nd and 20 from the 30. On the next play he threw short to Forte for 11 yards. That set up a reasonable 3rd and 9 from the 41. Again Hanie went to Forte and this time he picked up 8 yards, taking the ball close to midfield, as the 2-minute warning hit. It was 4th and 1 from the Chicago 49. Chester Taylor took the handoff and went over right tackle for 4 yards and a 1st down at the Packers 47. They were still alive.

Running out of a no-huddle, Hanie took the shotgun snap on the next play and hit Forte underneath. He picked up 13 yards and managed to get out of bounds at the 34, stopping the clock with 1:27 to go. On 2nd and 10, Hanie hit Olsen for 7 yards and he got out of bounds at the 27 with 1:15 to play. Despite the fact that the clock was stopped, the Bears decided to call their 2nd timeout, as they were facing a 3rd and 3 from the 27.

While this decision might appear to be based on sound thinking, it was probably not the way to go at this point. They had called a timeout on 3rd down when they were deep in their own territory and on the next play Hanie threw a pick-six. So far, much of Hanie’s success had come on plays where he just bought time and found a receiver. Much of this had been done running a no-huddle, not allowing Green Bay to set their defense. On 5 no-huddle plays to this point, Hanie was 5 for 5 for 68 yards and a TD. But the Bears decided to call a timeout to come up with a great play. The play that they came up with was not great. They decided to hand the ball off to Earl Bennett running around the left end. He was cut down in the backfield by Desmond Bishop at the 29 for a loss of 2. Now it was 4th and 5.

Now the Bears went into a no-huddle and attempted to get a play in on the fly. Hanie took the shotgun snap. He had time, and he actually had a man open to his right, but in the pressure and chaos of the moment, knowing that he could not take a sack, Hanie got rid of the ball, firing over the middle into coverage for Knox. Shields made another play, intercepting at the 12. He returned it to the 44 before going down with 37 seconds to go. That sealed the win. Rodgers took a knee to run out the clock and ice the 21-14 victory.

While he started out on fire and had flashes of brilliance at different points throughout the game, Rodgers ended up having a fairly pedestrian day. He completed 17 of 30 passes for 244 yards, no TD’s, and 2 picks, posting just a 55.4 rating. He did run 7 times for 39 yards and a TD. Starks ran 22 times for 74 yards and a TD, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Jennings had a huge game, grabbing 8 passes for 130 yards. Nelson made 4 catches for 67 yards. Masthay was huge, putting 5 of 8 punts inside the 20. Shields was the defensive star, recording 4 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, and 2 picks. Raji had a pick-six.

Cutler was 6 for 14 for 80 yards, no TD’s, and a pick before getting hurt. He had a 31.8 rating, running twice for 10 yards. Collins was 0 for 4. Hanie went 13 for 20 for 153 yards, a TD, and 2 picks, posting a 65.2 rating. Forte ran 17 times for 70 yards, averaging 4.1 per rush, and he caught 10 passes for 90 yards. Taylor had just 3 carries for 2 yards but he scored a TD and picked up a huge 1st down on 4th down late in the game. He caught 1 pass for 12 yards. Knox made 2 catches for 56 yards and Bennett made 3 catches for 45 yards and a TD. Bennett also had a 22 yard punt return. Hester was shutdown. He did not catch a single pass, had just 1 kick return for 24 yards, and returned 3 punts for just 15 yards. Urlacher had a great game, making 9 tackles, a sack, and a huge pick that he returned 39 yards. Briggs had 4 tackles and a pick.

Injury News

Pittsburgh: We can assume that almost everyone on both teams is banged up in some way. Injury reports are always confusing and they’ve been vaguer than ever this week. Honestly, the only guys we can rule out are on IR. DE Aaron Smith has been out since very early in the season with a triceps injury. The injury was originally only expected to keep him out 6 weeks or so but Smith has yet to return. Sadly, it doesn’t appear that Smith will play in the Super Bowl either.

The big news since championship Sunday has been the availability of Steelers rookie Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey. He went down early in the AFC title game and never returned. Originally it was reported that he had a high ankle sprain; a harmless sounding injury that we have all learned can take a long time to heal. Then one of Pouncey’s line-mates stated that he would not play in the big game. It was stated so casually that it was almost as if in passing. Early in this week it was reported that Pouncey had not only suffered a severe high ankle sprain but had also broken a bone. But then just a day or so later Pouncey twice stated that he would play. Mike Tomlin has refused to rule him out. Now, it’s highly possible that this has all been an elaborate scheme of deception. It’s equally plausible that it has all been a completely unintentional scheme of deception. All we really know is that he suffered a significant ankle injury that could cause him to miss Sunday’s game.

Green Bay: Again, all we can say for sure is that the guys on IR are out. LB Frank Zombo has been out since week 14 with a knee injury, but it looks like there is a decent chance he will return for the big game this Sunday. We can also assume that just about every other player on the roster is banged up in some way.

Series History: These are two of the older franchises in the NFL, as the Packers were an original NFL team, and the Steelers came along in 1933 (then called the Pirates). This series does not have a particularly rich history, as it took the Steelers many years to be competitive, and when the two teams were split into separate conferences in 1970 it limited the number of regular season (and postseason) matchups between the two.

The Packers hold an 18-14 edge in the all-time series. The first matchup was on October 15th, 1933 in Green Bay, with the Packers winning 47-0. The Packers won the first 9 meetings (through 1946), outscoring the Steelers 289-62 over that time, winning by average margin of 32-7. The Steelers have gone 14-9 against Green Bay since then. The Steelers have won the last 3 meetings and 7 of the last 9. The last meeting was in week 15 of 2009 at Pittsburgh, with the Steelers winning a wild shootout, 37-36.

Team Playoff Histories

Pittsburgh: This is the 26th trip to the playoffs in franchise history (25th since 1972 and the 7th in the last 10 years). The Steelers have a 33-19 record in the playoffs. They have won 5 straight playoff games and 9 of their last 10. This is the 3rd playoff appearance in 4 years under Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are 5-1 in the playoffs under Tomlin. This is the 5th trip to the playoffs for Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are 10-2 with Big Ben at quarterback. The Steelers are 6-1 in the Super Bowl (1-0 under Tomlin, 2-0 with Big Ben). This is the 3rd trip to the Super Bowl in the last 6 years for Pittsburgh. Their last Super Bowl appearance was in 2008, when they beat the Cardinals. With their 8th Super Bowl appearance the Steelers will tie the Dallas Cowboys for the most all-time. They already hold the record for most Super Bowl titles with 6. Among teams who have played in more than 1 Super Bowl, only the San Francisco 49ers have a better winning percentage in Super Bowls than the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Green Bay: This is the 26th trip to the playoffs in franchise history (2nd straight and 3rd in the last 4 years). The Packers have a 28-16 record in the playoffs. This is the 3rd playoff appearance in 5 years under Mike McCarthy. The Packers are 4-2 in the playoffs under McCarthy. This is the 2nd straight trip to the playoffs for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are 3-1 in the playoffs with Rodgers at quarterback. The Packers are 3-1 in the Super Bowl (first appearance for McCarthy and Rodgers). Green Bay’s last Super Bowl appearance was in 1997, when they lost to the Broncos. Their last Super Bowl win came in 1996 against the Patriots. Packers fans would surely have me note that the franchise holds 12 NFL Championships in their history (the most all-time). They won 3 NFL titles before the onset of the playoffs, and they were 6-2 in NFL Championship Games prior to the onset of the Super Bowl. The Packers are 9-3 all-time in NFL Championship Games.

History at Stake: Is this a matchup of the two greatest franchises in NFL history? I have not yet heard this question asked, perhaps because so much of the last few days has been focused around the two teams that lost on Championship Sunday (Jets and Bears). In answer to my original question, I think you can make a great case that it is. There are only so many teams who can even make a claim to be one of the two greatest in history. Certainly the Steelers and Packers are in the discussion.

If they aren’t the two greatest, who is? It’s actually a harder question than you might think, simply because the NFL is now in its 10th decade. Consider that we are coming up on Super Bowl XLV, and that NFL history goes back 46 years before Super Bowl I (the 1920 and 1921 APFA seasons are included in official NFL records). While the number of teams, players, games, and playoff games (among many other things) has greatly increased since the early years of the NFL, I’m not prepared to discount championships won before the Super Bowl Era. Nobody is going to take down banners at New Yankee Stadium or wherever the Canadiens are now playing. The Lakers just put up banners in honor of the titles won in Minnesota a few years ago. So while the explosion of the NFL’s popularity has occurred during the Super Bowl Era, that doesn’t mean that you can just dismiss the first half of the league’s history.

To make a long story short (too late), I think my original question is really a topic for another blog entry. However, this is a matchup between the team with the most overall league championships (the Packers with 12) and the team with the most Super Bowl championships (the Steelers with 6). So that is something. But there is plenty at stake in this one. Mike Tomlin has now equaled Bill Cowher in Super Bowl appearances (2 each) and with a win he would surpass Cowher in Super Bowl titles (2 to 1). Roethlisberger has a chance to join Troy Aikman and Tom Brady with 3 Super Bowl titles, behind only Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw (4 each) among quarterbacks. For Green Bay, Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers can equal the number of titles won by Mike Holmgren and Brett Favre. Think about that.

Matchups

Coaching Matchup

Edge: Steelers.

Comments: I’ve become much more of a believer in Mike Tomlin this year. Obviously he’s an excellent leader and he knows how to direct a team, as he’s taken his team to the Super Bowl twice in 4 years as a coach. But I’m starting to gain respect for him as an in-game coach as well. He just seems to know the right buttons to push at times. Also, he rarely hurts his team with his decision making.

There’s little doubt that Mike McCarthy is a great offensive mind and quarterback tutor. I’m less impressed with McCarthy as an in-game manager. I’ve been a critic of McCarthy’s decision making for years, and there were several questionable strategic moves in the NFC Championship Game that I thought helped the Bears to stay in the game. In addition, I’ve been unimpressed with the way he has handled the team during the break between the conference championship game and the Super Bowl. I could be wrong—and it might not even matter--but so far it seems like he’s losing the battle of getting his team mentally prepared to win the Super Bowl.

Both teams have excellent defensive coordinators. Dom Capers is one of the best DC’s in the game, but I think Dick LeBeau might be the best. I’m sure Capers will have a good game plan to throw at Pittsburgh. However, I think LeBeau—with two weeks to game plan—will be able to do more to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense than anyone they’ve faced in the playoffs. I would also think that the Steelers would be better at making halftime adjustments.

Quarterback Matchup

Edge: Push.

Comments: If you ask me to pick a quarterback to lead my team over the course of an entire season, Rodgers would be higher than Ben Roethlisberger on my list. However, I think Big Ben’s record in big games and his history of making plays late in the game evens things up.

Pittsburgh Offense vs. Green Bay Defense

Edge: Packers.

Comments: On paper it looks almost like a mismatch. In reality, I don’t think the Packers will be able to complete shutdown the Pittsburgh rushing or passing attack. They should be able to at least control the running game and force quite a few 3rd and longs. They should be able to put pressure on Big Ben and they have the defensive backs to stay with Pittsburgh’s speedy receivers. The problem is that other teams have been able to do this as well (the Ravens, the Jets) and Big Ben and the Steelers have been able to make plays anyway.

Green Bay Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense

Edge: Steelers.

Comments: I expect the Steelers to complete stifle Green Bay’s running game and I think they’ll limit Rodgers’ ability to make plays with his feet. I also think they’ll be able to get to Rodgers for pressures, hits, and sacks. I’m sure there will be times when Rodgers is protected and when this happens he will be able to hit open receivers. But overall, I think we’ll see Rodgers and the Green Bay offense struggle more in the Super Bowl than they have so far in the playoffs.

Special Teams Matchup

Edge: Push.

Comments: The Packers did an excellent job on special teams in the NFC Championship Game. But neither team is very good in this area.

Other Tangible Factors Matchup

Edge: Push.

Comments: By design, there should be no home field advantage in the Super Bowl. The game is played on a neutral field, with the fans of both teams having an opportunity to acquire tickets. Moreover, much of the audience is typically made up of neutral fans from the surrounding areas. A great number of tickets are bought by corporations and used for entertainment and business purposes. The price of tickets alone often excludes many of the most avid fans. In addition, both teams have large, widespread, and dedicated fan bases. Packer fans are probably equal to Pittsburgh fans in terms of loyalty and passion. However, it is my belief that “Steeler Nation” is much larger and more widespread than “Packer Nation.”

To be sure, there are Packers fans everywhere. But there are a lot of Steelers fans everywhere. There is a Steelers bar in seemingly every town in America. While Green Bay may have the highest percentage of city inhabitants watching the game on Sunday (it’s hard to imagine that there are many football fans living in Green Bay who are not Packers fans; it’s also hard to believe that there are many people living in Green Bay who are not Packers fans), I once heard of a study which claimed that Pittsburgh Steelers games draw the largest TV audience of any team outside of their home city. My point here is that while the fan bases of both teams are among the best in sports, the Steelers fan base is probably much larger. Considering that this year’s Super Bowl is expected to break the record for attendance—with perhaps 105,000 people in the building—there’s a possibility that a great number of real Pittsburgh Steelers fans could be in attendance. If that number dwarfs the number of real Green Bay Packers fans, than there could actually be a bit of an advantage in terms of noise.

We’ve seen this before in recent years. I thought there was a noticeable difference in the level of noise when the Colts were on offense against the Bears in Super Bowl XLI, particularly early in the game when the Bears had the upper hand. However, we have seen noise level have less and less of an effect on teams in recent years. Home field advantage in general doesn’t seem to be as big of a deal nowadays. The Packers have already won 3 times in these playoffs in hostile environments. The Steelers seem to draw energy from the crowd when playing at Heinz Field, and at times the opposition looks a little rattled. Even if there are 60,000 Steelers fans in attendance for this one, I don’t think that will be the case, simply because the unusual pace of the game—with longer and more frequent TV breaks and an extended halftime show—and the overall corporate/Hollywood atmosphere of the Super Bowl won’t allow it.

But there is another aspect of the location of the game that should be discussed. I have heard some people say that the fact that the game is indoors and on turf will give Green Bay an advantage. Surely this is at least in some part due to the tremendous performance of the Packers in the divisional round against the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. However, I believe it’s foolish to think that the outcome of that game would have been much different had it been played at old Atlanta Fulton County Stadium. The key to that game was that the Packers came in with an outstanding game plan and they executed it to perfection. A handful of big plays allowed the game to get truly out of hand. If the Packers are well suited both offensively and defensively to playing on the carpet, surely the Steelers are just as well suited to that surface. The Steelers have plenty of speed on defense and the speed of their receivers is perhaps their biggest weapon offensively. I don’t think the surface or the arena gives either side an advantage.

Both teams will obviously come into this game supremely confident. Motivation and experience may not be so obviously equal. In the past, some teams seemed to have been “just happy to be there.” The team we might suspect of having this attitude would be the Packers. However, I really don’t see that being an issue at all in this case. The Packers seem plenty motivated to win this game. This was not a situation where just getting to the Super Bowl was a miraculous achievement or a cause for a never-before-seen reaction from the franchise and the fans base. Furthermore, the “just happy to be there” trait really has not been commonly seen in recent years. It could be that it was never really there to begin with, and that teams who got trampled in the past were really just not nearly as good as the teams they faced.

Moving on, the Steelers obviously have the edge in experience. If the “just happy to be there” trait is a myth, I doubt we can say the same for the “effected by the magnitude of the event” trait. This seems to be a real thing. Some teams that are inexperienced and playing on this sort of a stage for the first time may be worn down by the intense coverage and build up. They may be affected by the pressure of the bright lights. We know this will not be an issue for the Steelers, who have won the Super Bowl twice in the last 6 years. We don’t know yet for sure about the Packers. If I were a Packers fan I’d be a little worried about the way the team has dealt with the stage so far. Still, I think there are enough veterans and big game performers on the team to make this a non-issue.

It seems strange to say this, but for once I think the Packers are the team less at risk of being effected by health. They lost a lot of key players early on, but guys stepped in and stepped up and the team they have right now is fairly healthy. On the other side, the Steelers have dealt with fewer injuries. The problem is that the injuries that have hit Pittsburgh have primarily hurt the same area: offensive line. They have lost starters and backups at the tackle spots and the players who are currently manning those positions are banged up. Then in the AFC Championship Game they lost starting center Maurkice Pouncey. The injury affected Pittsburgh in that game and it could be a factor again in the Super Bowl. Having said this, it’s hard for me to get too caught up in yet another offensive line injury for the Steelers, when they’ve continued to win all season in spite of all of the previous injuries and the lack of protection for QB Ben Roethlisberger.

Intangibles Matchup

Edge: Push.

Comments: The Packers are definitely the “hot” team. They’ve looked a team destined to win it all since the start of the playoffs. But the Steelers have that intangible “it” that allows them to win big games.

Overall Matchup

Edge: Push.

Comments: You might think this is weak, but it really is a push. The teams are evenly matched, and while the Packers might have a slight edge on paper, the Steelers have the experience, and again, they just know how to win. It should be a good one.

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