At the Breaking Point
And we were all ready to complain about the team being stagnant and treading water. Turns out that may have been optimistic.
The Hawks are 34-21 at the break with 27 games left. On the surface, it looks like the Hawks are heading for another 50-win season/2nd round playoff exit. That’s disappointing, as we had hoped (and that’s all it was, blind hope) that perhaps changing coaches might allow the team to take another step forward. Obviously that hasn’t happened. If anything, the Hawks have regressed. Worst of all: by the end of the year we may be talking about the Hawks taking a significant step backwards.
Offense
Larry Drew’s offense may look slightly less like an AAU team than Mike Woodson’s did, but it hasn’t made the Hawks a better offensive team. They are down in points per game this season, significantly. They’re not shooting the ball any better. Are they passing the ball more and running less isolation plays? I suppose. But it’s only led to more turnovers and less rebounding.
Defense
If the Hawks are a more sound team defensively—and that’s a major “if”—they have lost the aggression that was their personality. That aggressive style meshed well with their athleticism. They’re giving up fewer points, but they’re forcing fewer turnovers. Plus, opponents are basically having just as much success shooting the ball.
Splits
Last year the Hawks were 35-20 through 55 games. That’s only 1-win better than they are right now. However, the Hawks played a balanced schedule through 55 games last year. This season, the Hawks have put up their 34-21 record against the easiest schedule in the league. Last year they were a solid 25-20 against winning teams; this season they are just 8-13 against teams that are over .500. The Hawks were 28-9 against below .500 teams last season. They have maintained that level of play against weak opponents this season, going 26-8 against losing teams so far. The problem is that, as you’ll notice, the Hawks played 37 games against below .500 teams last year, and they’ve already played 34 games against losing teams this season. In other words, there aren’t many more bad teams left on the schedule.
One of the few bright spots of this season has been the Hawks drastic improvement on the road. They always struggled away from home under Mike Woodson, and last season they were again below .500 on the road, finishing at 19-22. This season they are 17-12 in away games. Unfortunately, the Hawks’ most consistent positive trait of the Woodson era—playing tough at home—has been reversed. The Hawks were 34-7 at home last year. They have already lost more games at Philips Arena this season than they did all of last year, going just 17-9 at home so far.
An increase in non-competitive losses (at times extremely non-competitive) has been one of the most disturbing trends of the season so far. The Hawks lost just 9 games by double digits last season. They’ve already lost 10 by double digits this season. They are also on pace to win fewer games by double digits this season.
The Roster
Al Horford continues to progress into an All-Star caliber player, despite being undersized for his position. He is hardnosed, never lacks in effort, and is consistent. He’s also clutch.
Unfortunately, the arrow is pointing down for the rest of the guys playing meaningful minutes for this team.
Joe Johnson: Down. He’s been hurt part of the time but when healthy his play has fallen off (as expected). If you thought that the huge contract and the security would drive him to want to prove his worth, you’ve been disappointed. He’s a zero as a leader.
Josh Smith: Down. Josh’s improvement as a shooter has been impressive. Unfortunately, it’s had a negative effect overall on his performance. He’s driving less (and therefore getting fouled less), playing away from the basket more (and therefore getting fewer rebounds), and he settles way too much. He’s somehow turning the ball over more and creating fewer turnovers at the defensive end.
Jamal Crawford: Down. This was to be expected, as he had a career year last season. Still, at times he just doesn’t seem to be as hungry. Maybe the thrill of playing for a competitive team has worn off. Maybe he isn’t as motivated because the Hawks didn’t extend his deal and he could well take a hit under the new CBA.
Mike Bibby: Down. He’s done. As a starter he’s way done. Off the bench, as a spot up shooter he could be okay. But he doesn’t create for others, he doesn’t create for himself, and he’s a massive liability on defense.
Marvin Williams: Down. He sucks.
Mo Evans: Down. Mo is having a bad year.
Zaza Pachulia: Down. Zaza’s numbers are down as well.
The Others
I liked the idea of having guys like Jason Collins, Josh Powell, and Damien Wilkins play more this season in order to keep the starters fresh, and to keep it from being such a shock when they are used in the postseason. But at times Drew seems to view them as more than role players, almost as if he’s just looking to shake things up. I can understand Drew being desperate for answers. Unfortunately, there aren’t any good ones at the end of the bench. As for the draft picks of the last few years, it doesn’t look good. Late round picks are hit or miss, and it doesn’t look like we hit on any of these.
Tough Road Ahead
It’s never good when you lose to bad teams. Regardless of what the rest of the schedule looked like, losing at home to the Bucks, Bobcats, Sixers, and Rockets--while also losing twice at New Jersey--was going to suck. But over the final two months we’re likely to rue those games we gave away all the more. There are virtually no easy games the rest of the way.
The “2nd half” begins with a rude awakening: 5 west coast games in 7 days. It starts with Lakers-Suns on back-to -back nights and ends with Blazers-Nuggets on back-to-back nights, with a game against Golden State (19-11 at home) in between. We catch a break playing the Nuggets now, as they are in transition, but that’s a small consolation.
We come home after the trip out west for 4 games at Philips. Unfortunately, we face the Bulls, Thunder, Knicks (evening things up for missing Melo out West), and Lakers. We then go to Chicago.
Our next 6 are at home, but we face some tough teams, starting with Portland. Instead of having 3 days off between the Blazers game and a game with Miami, we play the makeup game with Milwaukee (already beaten us at home this season) and then play the Heat the next night. The home stand ends with Detroit and then Chicago again. The night after the game with the Bulls we play at Philly (who beat us by 34 at home a few weeks ago).
Fortunately, we do have a couple of soft spots in the final 10 games, beginning with a home game against the Nets (they’ve beaten us twice this season) and a road game at Cleveland the next night. We’ll need to win those games, because we then head home for Orlando and Boston, then go to Houston, and then come home to play the Spurs.
The other soft spot is next, as we play at Indiana and at Washington on back-to-back nights. We come home to play the Heat and then finish up in Charlotte. Even the “easy” games the rest of the way are either on the road, part of a back-to-back set, or against teams that have already beaten us this season.
Maybe the tough competition and hostile environments will bring out the fire in the Hawks and they will turn their season around. It’s probably more likely that we’ll wilt under the pressure. We may completely fold. It’s not asking too much for them to go 13-14, which would give us a 47-35 record, and likely the 5th seed. All we can do is hope.
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