Last Week: Vs. Spread (11-5); Straight Up: (11-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (125-125-6); Straight Up: (157-99)
Week 17 Review: Wow! Now that’s what I call finishing strong. I’ve got to be honest, people. I did not think I had a chance to get back to .500. I’m pretty fired up about it, as you can tell.
Wild Card Round Preview: It’s another fairly weird Wild Card Round this season. By far the biggest favorite of the first round (New Orleans) will be on the road. Three teams with at least 11 wins will be playing in the first round (Baltimore, New York Jets, New Orleans), and all 3 teams will be on the road. The opening game of the weekend will likely be a blowout, but the final 3 games should be excellent. My comments during the playoffs will be structured a little differently from the regular season. Actually, they’ll be very similar to my week 17 comments.
Saturday’s Late Day
New Orleans (-10) @ Seattle
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: The only way this game will be interesting is if the Seahawks surprise the hell out of everyone and put up a fight. Statistic and record wise, the Seahawks are the worst playoff team in the history of the league, and yet they are hosting the defending Super Bowl champs. This will be a rematch from the regular season. This is easily the largest spread of Wild Card round, with no other spread set at more than a field goal.
Playoff Position
New Orleans: Going into week 17, the Saints still had a chance to win the NFC South. They lost their final game at home to the Bucs, 23-13, but it turned out that they could not have improved their position in the playoffs anyway, as the Falcons won their game. The Saints finished 11-5 to earn a wild card bid and the #5 seed.
Seattle: The Seahawks beat the Rams on Sunday night in the final regular season game of the 2010 NFL season, winning 16-6 at home to finish the season 7-9. Ordinarily, such a game would have no impact on the postseason, but this was not an ordinary season. With the win, the Seahawks finished tied for 1st in the NFC West with the Rams, and they won the tiebreaker to take the division title and earn the #4 seed.
Records and Trends
New Orleans: The Saints finished the season 11-5 overall (7-9 ATS) and 6-2 on the road (3-5 ATS). They have a +4.8 average scoring differential (7th best in the NFL). The Saints are 1-2 in their last 3 games but 7-2 over their last 9. New Orleans is just 2-4 ATS over their last 6. The Saints are 5-1 in their last 6 road games, but just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 on the road.
Seattle: The Seahawks are just 7-9 overall (7-9 ATS) and 5-3 at home (5-3 ATS). They have an awful -6.0 average scoring differential (28th in the NFL). Seattle snapped a 3-game losing streak with their win in the season finale, and they are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Seahawks are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 and 3-7 ATS over their last 10. They are just 2-3 in their last 5 at home (2-3 ATS).
Team Stats and Rankings
New Orleans Offense: The Saints were nowhere near the offensive juggernaut this season that they were last year when they scored 510 points. They scored 126 fewer points this year, averaging 24.0 points a game (just 11th best in the league), but they were obviously still very capable. New Orleans finished 6th in total offense and 6th in time of possession. That’s definitely not bad, but it’s clearly nothing like last season.
There were certainly some familiar aspects of this year’s New Orleans offense. The Saints had the best 3rd down conversion percentage in the league (49%); the highest completion percentage; they were tied 2nd in passing TD’s; 3rd in passing yards; and 5th in sacks allowed (fewest). However, the Saints turned the ball over more often this season. In all honesty, it was mostly a problem of throwing picks, as the Saints were tied 9th in fumbles lost, but finished 30th in INT’s (thrown). The Saints were only tied for 10th in QB rating. Drew Brees is still Drew Brees. He completed 68.1% of his passes this season and posted a 90.9 passer rating. He threw for 4620 yards and 33 touchdowns, but he also fired 22 picks.
Another problem this season was that the Saints just couldn’t ever get a consistent ground game going. They were 28th in rushing yards, tied 19th in yards per attempt, and tied for 24th in rushing TD’s. Injuries played a major role in the struggles. Reggie Bush missed time with a broken leg and wound up rushing for only 150 yards and no rushing TD’s this season. Pierre Thomas missed most of the season due to injuries and went for just 269 yards and 2 TD’s on the ground all year. Chris Ivory ended up being New Orleans’ best back, rushing for 716 yards and 5 TD’s at a 5.2 yards per carry clip. However, Ivory too would be bitten by the injury bug.
One thing that hasn’t changed is that when the Saints are going good on offense it means that Brees is spreading the ball around to a hoard of capable pass catchers. Marques Colston is the biggest threat, as he managed to catch 84 passes for 1023 yards and 7 TD’s this season, but the Saints had 8 guys with at least 30 receptions this season. Besides Colston there are 3 other dangerous wideouts: Lance Moore (66 catches for 763 yards and 8 TD’s), Robert Meachem (44 catches for 638 yards and 5 TD’s), and Devery Henderson (34 catches for 464 yards and a TD). Brees also relies on 3 very capable pass catching tight ends: Jeremy Shockey (41 receptions for 408 yards and 3 TD’s), Jimmy Graham (31 catches for 356 yards and 5 TD’s), and David Thomas (30 receptions for 219 yards and a pair of TD’s). And of course Bush’s greatest asset may be catching passes out of the backfield, and he grabbed 34 passes for 208 yards and a TD this season.
Seattle Offense: The Seahawks were not a good offensive team this season, scoring just 19.4 points a game (23rd) and finishing 28th in total yards. Seattle struggled in the passing game, finishing 19th in passing yards, tied 28th in passing TD’s, and tied 23rd in picks. The Seahawks were 29th in passer rating and 21st in completion percentage. Matt Hasselbeck struggled to stay healthy again this season, and when he did play he was not at his best, completing just 59.9 percent of his passes and posting a 73.2 rating. He threw for 3001 yards with just 12 touchdowns and 17 picks. Charlie Whitehurst appeared in 6 games this season, starting 2, including last Sunday night’s big victory over St. Louis. Whitehurst is extremely inexperienced and has not been very effective, completing just 57.6 percent of his passes and posting a 65.5 rating. He threw for 507 yards this season, tossing a pair of TD’s and 3 INT’s.
As bad as Seattle was throwing the ball this season, they were even worse in the running game, finishing 31st out of 32 teams in rush yards and tied 29th in yards per carry. Seattle went with a two running back tandem this season and neither guy had much success. Marshawn Lynch ran for 573 yards and 6 TD’s, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Justin Forsett rushed for 523 yards and a pair of TD’s, averaging 4.4 yards per attempt.
The Seahawks were average at pass protection, finishing 16th in sacks allowed. They were tied 17th in fumbles lost and 22nd in 3rd down conversion percentage. These are all drive killing stats, and that’s a problem, because Seattle does not have a lot of big play talent on offense. Due to the struggles on 3rd down and in the turnover department, the Seahawks were not able to play a ball control style of offense (or at least play it well), as they were 29th in time of possession. When Seattle did score, it normally came on the ground, as they ended up tied for 12th in rushing TD’s. Seattle’s biggest offensive weapon is Mike Williams, who has been surprisingly good when healthy. He led the team with 65 receptions for 751 yards but caught only 2 TD’s. Deon Butler made only 36 catches for 385 yards, and he led the team with 4 touchdown receptions.
New Orleans Defense: While the Saints fell several notches on the offensive side of the ball this season, they improved defensively. In a way, this year’s Saints team more resembles the 2006 team that lost in the NFC Championship Game than last year’s team that won it all. New Orleans allowed 34 fewer points this season than last year, giving up 19.2 points a game (7th). Last year’s defense relied on turnovers and big plays to make an impact. This year was different, as the Saints had a legitimately strong defensive unit, finishing 4th in yards allowed. They were the 5th toughest defense on 3rd down. The Saints have been especially strong against the pass, finishing 4th in passing yards allowed and 1st in passing TD’s allowed. It’s a little hard to figure out exactly why the Saints have been so stingy against the pass. They are just tied for 18th in sacks, 15th in opponent’s passer rating, and 17th in opponent’s completion percentage. It’s not like they are absolutely terrible against the run (16th in rush yards allowed, tied 17th in yards per attempt, tied 18th in rushing TD’s allowed) and teams are just avoiding the pass and sticking strictly to a ground attack. They just do a good job of defending the pass.
Last season the Saints were a turnover forcing machine. That wasn’t exactly the case this season, although they did end up 2nd in fumbles forced and 3rd in fumbles recovered. They fell way off in INT’s, finishing 30th in the NFL in that department. That’s the most major difference from last year on this side of the ball.
The Saints have impact players at all three levels of the defense. Sedric Ellis leads the team in sacks (6.0) from his DT position and Will Smith is a good pass rushing DE (5.5 sacks and a pick). As everyone knows, Jonathan Vilma is a top notch middle linebacker. He led the team in tackles and also recorded 4 sacks and a pick this season. FS Darren Sharper has been a key force for the Saints over the last few years, but this season it was really strong safety Roman Harper who was the play maker in the New Orleans secondary. He was 2nd on in the team in tackles and had 3 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, and a pick. The Saints have a couple other play makers in the secondary. Malcolm Jenkins (took over the starting FS spot for Sharper this season) and CB Jabari Greer each had a pair of picks this season and they each returned one for a TD.
Seattle Defense: The Seahawks are equally as bad defensively as they are on offense. They were 27th in total defense and 25th in scoring defense, allowing 25.4 points a game this season. They aren’t very good at stopping the run (21st in rushing yards allowed, tied 13th in yards per attempt, tied 18th in rushing TD’s allowed), but they are particularly defenseless against the pass. They finished 27th in pass defense, tied 29th in passing TD’s allowed, 26th in QB rating, and 24th in QB completion percentage. They are also tied for 25th in picks. Safety Earl Thomas has been one of the few bright spots on the Seattle defense, leading the team with 5 interceptions.
If there is something for Seattle fans to feel good about defensively it’s the fact that the Seahawks were the 9th best defense on 3rd down. In addition, the Seahawks were 13th in sacks. In complete anonymity, DE Chris Clemons had a very solid season as a pass rusher, recording 11 sacks. Fellow defensive end Raheem Brock has also shined, notching 9 sacks. Lofa Tatupu and Marcus Trufant both returned interceptions for touchdowns this season. Along with the sacks, the Seahawks were also 11th in fumbles forced, though just tied for 16th in fumbles recovered.
New Orleans Special Teams: The Saints kicking game can be a mess at times. In the end, they finished 21st in FG% at 81%, going 8 of 9 from 40+ and 2 for 2 on 50+ FG attempts. Garrett Hartley looked very shaky early in the season and the team brought in John Carney. Carney kicked well in two games but Hartley eventually took the job back over. The Saints were 16th in touchback percentage on kickoffs and 24th on kickoff return coverage. The Saints are only 26th in punts downed inside the 20, but they are tied 10th in net punt average (Thomas Morstead is Saints punter). New Orleans is a team you would expect to be explosive on returns, but they really haven’t been this season. They are 15th in kickoff return average and just 23rd in punt return average.
Seattle Special Teams: The Seahawks are stronger on special teams than any other area. They were 4th in kickoff touchback percentage; 14th in kickoff coverage; tied 17th in net punt average; and tied 13th in punts inside the 20 (Jon Ryan punts for the Seahawks). Seattle is dangerous on kick and punt returns, as they finished tied 10th in kickoff return average and 9th in punt return average. The Seahawks are tied 13th in FG% (83%), with the steady Olindo Mare going 6 for 9 from 40+ and 1 for 2 on attempts of 50+.
Turnovers, Big Plays, Penalties, and Red Zone
New Orleans: Perhaps the biggest difference between this year’s Saints team and the team that won the Super Bowl last year is in the turnover department. They have turned the ball over 28 times (tied 19th) and only forced 23 takeaways (20th) for a -5 turnover differential (tied 22nd). New Orleans is also not getting as many big plays off of turnovers this season, though they did return 2 INT’s for touchdowns. They also recorded a safety. Giving up big plays was also a much bigger issue for the Saints this year. New Orleans threw 4 interceptions for touchdowns and had 2 fumbles returned for scores against them. The Saints are tied 10th in penalties per game (fewest) but just 22nd in penalty yards per game. The Saints have not been a great red zone offensive team this season, finishing 20th in RZ scoring percentage, but they are 6th in opponent’s RZ scoring percentage.
Seattle: As you would assume, the Seahawks have been even worse than the Saints in this department, committing 30 turnovers (26th) while causing only 21 takeaways (tied 24th) for a -9 turnover differential (28th). On the other hand, the Seahawks made a number of huge plays on defense and special teams this season. Like New Orleans, the Seahawks returned a pair of pick-sixes and recorded a safety. However, they also scored on a blocked punt for a touchdown and took 3 kickoffs to the house (all 3 KR TD’s were turned in by Leon Washington), a fairly high number for any NFL team in one season. On the other side of things, Seattle gave up a pick-six, had a fumble returned for a TD against them, and allowed a safety. They also gave up a punt return for a TD. The Seahawks commit a lot of penalties. They were 22nd in penalties per game and 23rd in penalty yards per game. Seattle was not a good RZ offensive team, finishing 29th in RZ scoring percentage. However, they were 7th in opponent’s RZ scoring percentage.
Injury News
New Orleans: The Saints have been hit hard by injuries at the running back position all season. It is an on-going problem. They lost backup PJ Hill for the year before the start of the season. LaDell Betts played in 8 games before being lost for the season due to a neck injury. Chris Ivory missed 4 games during the season and he reinjured his foot in week 17. It was learned earlier this week that Ivory would miss the rest of the season, a meaningful loss for the Saints. The news has gotten worse as the week has gone on. Pierre Thomas, the starter coming into the season, missed 9 games with a knee injury. He returned late in the year but then suffered an ankle injury and missed the season finale. On Wednesday it was announced that Thomas would join Ivory on the IR-list. In desperation, the Saints resigned DeShawn Wynn and Joique Bell. Wynn played for both the Saints and 49ers this season, while Bell has already appeared in games for the Colts and Eagles. Neither player has had a single carry in a game this season, however. The Saints also have Julius Jones, who actually began the year with the Seahawks. Jones has rushed for 223 yards and no TD’s this season. If there is good news for the Saints it is the possibility that Reggie Bush may be close to full strength. Bush missed 8 games this season after breaking his leg. He returned in week 12 but he did not show many signs of being his usual dangerous self until the last game of the season, when he had 70 rushing yards and 55 receiving yards, both season highs.
DB Randall Gay (out since week 5) and KR Courtney Roby (out since week 15) are also done for the season. Jenkins, Graham, and DT Anthony Hargrove are listed as questionable. They should be able to play. Shockey, Thomas, DE Alex Brown, and Colston are listed as probable, but keep in mind that he missed last week’s game after having minor knee surgery. By the way, it might not even matter who the Saints have at running back or at wide receiver. Last week, with so many Saints players unavailable or being protected, WR Adrian Arrington (2nd year player out of Michigan) got to play the first game of his career. He caught 7 passes for 79 yards.
Seattle: The big issue concerning the Seahawks is obviously the quarterback situation. Whitehurst started in place of Hasselbeck (hip injury) last week, but Hasselbeck is listed as probable for this Saturday’s game, and the QB’s are splitting reps in practice. Pete Carroll is refusing to tip his hand as to which QB will start. It’s possible that both guys will be used.
Outside of the QB situation, the Seahawks are fairly healthy. Starting guard Max Unger (out since week 2) and #2 receiver Deon Butler (out since week 15) are both out for the year, as are reserve tackle Ray Willis (out since week 2) and reserve DT Red Bryant (out since week 9). DT Chester Pitts and TE Chris Baker sustained season ending injuries in week 17. Tackle Russell Okung, CB Kelly Jennings, and WR Brandon Stokley are all listed as questionable. Stokley missed last week’s game, and his situation is dicey because it’s a concussion problem.
Series History: The Saints have a 6-5 edge in the all-time series. This will be the first playoff meeting. The Saints are 3-3 all-time in Seattle, winning the last meeting there in 2007. These two last met in week 11 at New Orleans. The Saints won 34-19 in a game that was a little bit more competitive than the score indicates. New Orleans had 494 yards of offense but they also allowed 424 yards (26-21 edge in 1st downs). The Seahawks were hurt by key penalties, fumbles, and a failure to cash in on scoring chances.
Seattle scored first on a field goal to take a 3-0 lead, but the Saints responded with a TD to go on top and they never relinquished the lead. It was 7-6 early in the 2nd, but settling for FG’s would come back to haunt Seattle. The two teams combined for 23 points in the final 5:48 of the 1st half. After a flurry of scoring, the Saints led 27-16 at the midway point. They basically put the game away by scoring a TD on the opening possession of the 2nd half, but the game never turned into a complete rout due to a pair of Drew Brees interceptions. The score was still 34-16 at the start of the 4th and the game ended with New Orleans winning 34-19.
One interesting thing to note is that Chris Ivory had a very good game for the Saints in this one, rushing 23 times for 99 yards (4.3 average) and a TD. Conversely, Marshawn Lynch led the Seahawks in rushing with only 36 yards on 7 carries, and he also lost a pair of fumbles. Both teams were successful passing the ball, with the Saints throwing for 382 yards and the Seahawks going for 366 yards. However, New Orleans nearly doubled up on the Seahawks in the running game (112-58) and this was key. Part of the problem was that the Seahawks had to abandon the run once they fell behind by 3 scores.
Each team turned it over twice, but the Saints had only 3 penalties for 24 yards, while Seattle was hit for 8 penalties for 79 yards. The Saints converted on 11 of 15 3rd downs (0 for 1 on 4th down) and they had a 7 and a half minute edge in time of possession. Brees threw 2 picks but he was 26 of 43 for 382 yards and 4 TD’s. Colston caught a pair of touchdowns, as he grabbed 8 passes for 113 yards. Hasselbeck also played well, throwing it 44 times and completing 32 for 366 yards and a touchdown. The reason the Seahawks ended up farther away on the scoreboard than they were on the stat sheet was that they settled for 4 Olindo Mare field goals, while the Saints scored 5 TD’s (fumbled snap on failed extra point).
Team Playoff Histories
New Orleans: This is the 8th playoff appearance in franchise history for the Saints (all since 1987), their 2nd straight, and their 3rd in the last 5 years. They are 5-6 all-time in the postseason (0-3 on the road) and 1-4 in the Wild Card round (0-1 on the road). They are 3-4 in their opening game of the playoffs and they have won their last 3 opening playoff games. They are defending Super Bowl champs and they come into this season having won 3 straight in the playoffs. This is the 3rd trip to the playoffs for the Saints under Sean Payton and Drew Brees. The Saints are 4-1 in the playoffs during the Payton/Brees Era (0-1 on the road) but this will be their first Wild Card round game.
Seattle: This is the 11th trip to the playoffs for the Seahawks (all since 1983) and their first since 2007. They are 7-10 all-time in the playoffs (6-2 at home) and 4-4 in the WC round (4-2 at home). They are 5-5 in their opening playoff game, having won their last 3. They have won 4 straight at home in the playoffs and they have won their last 2 WC round games (both at home). This will be Seattle’s 6th trip to the playoffs with Matt Hasselbeck. With Hasselbeck, the Seahawks are 4-5 in the playoffs (4-1 at home) and 2-2 in WC games (2-1 at home). This will be the first playoff appearance for the Seahawks under Pete Carroll, but it will be Carroll’s 3rd trip as an NFL head coach. He took the Patriots to consecutive playoff appearances in 1997 and 1998, going 1-2 in playoff games (1-0 at home) and 1-1 in the WC round (1-0 at home).
Keys to the Game: The Saints have the edge on both sides of the ball, while the Seahawks probably have the edge in special teams. The Saints have a clear edge at QB and in experience. I would also give New Orleans the edge in the coaching department. All that Seattle has going for them is no pressure and the home field advantage. I might add that it’s a pretty hostile environment and it will certainly be loud. I think the Seahawks would also benefit from bad weather, particularly if it’s cold, windy, and rainy.
It will be interesting to see if the Saints even try and establish the run. I’m not sure they even need a ground game in order to have success. If they are able to run the ball, they should be in complete control, because the Seahawks are going to have a hard time stopping Brees and the passing attack. However, if the Saints have to throw the ball all day there’s a chance that Brees will make some mistakes. There will also be opportunities for the Seahawks to get sacks and try and force fumbles. The Seahawks absolutely have to make some of those types of plays in order to keep the Saints from hogging the ball and putting up points. While Seattle was solid statistically on 3rd down, the Saints are the best team in the NFL on 3rd down, and I would have to think they’ll be able to sustain drives against the Seahawks.
On the other side of the ball, I really think Matt Hasselbeck is the key to Seattle having any kind of a chance. If he can play and keep from getting hurt, Hasselbeck is a much better option than Whitehurst. People talk about Whitehurst’s ability to run, but he doesn’t scare anybody. And it’s not like Hasselbeck’s a statue out there; he can move around too. But the main issue is that Hasselbeck has the experience and he’s also a much better all-around QB at this point. If Whitehurst is the QB this Saturday, I don’t see the Seahawks having any kind of success.
UPDATE: On Thursday, Pete Carroll announced that Hasselbeck will start on Saturday. Even with Hasselbeck, I expect the Saints defense to be in control most of the time.
The one other thing that could help Seattle put a scare in the Saints would be a big return by Leon Washington. A kickoff return for a touchdown is one of the biggest game breaking plays in football. It’s how an offensively challenged team can stay in a game. It’s also a way for an underdog like the Seahawks to get back in the game in a hurry just when it appears that they are on the verge of being put away.
In reality, the Seahawks are going to need a lot of things to go their way to have a chance in this one. I don’t see it happening. The Seattle home field advantage is legit, but it’s only legit when the Seahawks are a good team. They are not a good team right now. The Saints aren’t scared of the road. Brees should be able to do his thing offensively against a Seattle defense that is well below average (despite how they looked against St. Louis last week). And we have to remember that the Saints now have a legitimately strong defense, and they should be able to handle the Seahawks’ punchless offense. It might not be as easy as many expect, but the Saints should win this one convincingly.
Saturday Night’s Game
New York Jets (+2.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Jets pull off the upset
Comment: This might be what you would call the “sexiest” matchup of the first round, as the Rex Ryan Jets will play Peyton Manning’s Colts. The Jets came into the season with a ton of hype, but going into the playoffs they are still looking to prove themselves. The Colts had more trouble getting to the playoffs this season than they had in many years. A few weeks ago it looked highly possible that the Colts might not even make the postseason this year. Even when it looked like the Colts had things all but wrapped up, they made things harder than they needed to be in the final couple of weeks. This will be a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game. This should be a very interesting game. Anything could happen.
Playoff Position
New York Jets: The Jets had already clinched a wild card bid going into week 17. They rolled over the Bills in their final game of the season to finish 11-5, but they were unable to improve their position as the #6 seed.
Indianapolis: The Colts went into week 17 needing only to beat the Titans at home to clinch the AFC South. They ended up getting a late field goal to win 23-20, taking the division title with a 10-6 record. They didn’t need the victory to win the division in the end, as the Jags also lost, but with the loss by the Chiefs, the Colts moved up to the #3 seed in the AFC.
Records and Trends
New York Jets: The Jets ended up 11-5 overall (9-7 ATS) and 6-2 on the road (5-3 ATS). They outscored opponents by an average of 3.9 points a game (8th best in the NFL). They are 2-3 in their last 5 and just 4-6 ATS over their last 10. The Jets are 1-2 in their last 3 on the road (1-2 ATS).
Indianapolis: The Colts are 10-6 overall (8-7-1 ATS) and 6-2 at home (4-4 ATS). They have a +3.0 average scoring differentia (tied 11th). The Colts have won 4 straight (2-2 ATS) but they are just 2-4 ATS over their last 6. Indy has won their last 2 at home but they are just 2-2 over their last 4 home games (1-3 ATS). They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home.
Team Stats and Rankings
New York Jets Offense: The Jets were a bit one-sided on offense last season, as they had the league’s top rushing attack but were not feared as a passing team. They tried hard to change things, adding several weapons at receiver, along with LaDainian Tomlinson. The plan worked for the most part. The Jets aren’t quite as strong on the ground (4th in rushing yards, tied 8th in yards per attempt, tied 9th in rushing TD’s), but they went from 31st in passing yards last season to 22nd this year.
It’s still a work in progress. In his 2nd season, Mark Sanchez ,made significant improvements, but still completed just 54.8% of his passes and posted a 75.3 rating. Sanchez threw for 3291 yards, tossing 17 touchdowns and 13 INT’s. The Jets offense can look downright ugly at times. They are 12th in INT’s thrown, which isn’t bad, but they are just 23rd in pass TD’s, tied 24th in passer rating, and 30th in completion percentage.
Still, the Jets are a more capable offense this season because of the added pass catching weapons. Braylon Edwards is a clown and a dropped pass machine, but he’s dangerous, going for 904 yards on 53 catches, including 7 for touchdowns. Santonio Holmes served a 4-game suspension, but he had a big impact upon his return, making 52 catches for 746 yards and 6 touchdowns. Holmes is their best receiver after the catch. Typical for an inexperienced QB, Sanchez’s most trusted target is TE Dustin Keller, who caught 55 passes for 687 yards and 5 touchdowns. Veteran receiver Jerricho Cotchery pitched in with 41 receptions for 433 yards and a couple of TD’s.
Overall, the Jets are 11th in total offense and 13th in scoring offense, averaging 22.9 points a game. They are still a ground it out team, 3rd in the NFL in time of possession, 15th in 3rd down conversion percentage, and 5th in fumbles lost. LaDainian Tomlinson took Thomas Jones’ place this season and looked better than many expected, rushing for 914 yards and 6 touchdowns. Tomlinson was also a key addition to the passing game, catching 52 passes for 368 yards, and helping protect Sanchez as a blocker when necessary. Shonn Greene’s carries increased in his 2nd season though his average per rush took a drop. He ran for 766 yards and 2 touchdowns. Along with leading the rushing attack, New York’s offensive line was tied 8th in sacks allowed.
Indianapolis Offense: Most football fans—check it, all football fans—are familiar with the Colts on the offensive side of the ball. It’s Peyton Manning’s show and it’s usually pretty good. Once again this season the Colts relied almost entirely on the passing game. They led the NFL in passing yards and finished 4th in total yards. The Colts averaged 27.2 points a game, 4th best in the league. The Colts had to fight through week 17 to eke out the division this year, and thus Manning took every snap at QB. Under Manning, the Colts were tied for 2nd in passing TD’s, 2nd in completion percentage, and 9th in QB rating. Peyton completed 66.3% of his passes for 4700 yards and 33 touchdowns. He threw 17 interceptions—unusually high for Manning—and posted a 91.9 passer rating.
It’s almost impossible to get to Manning for a sack (tied 1st in sacks allowed) but it’s not impossible to effect him with pressure. With absolutely no rushing game to speak of again this season (29th in rushing yards, tied 25th in yards per attempt), and skill position players dropping like flies, it was all on Manning’s shoulders. Donald Brown and Joseph Addai both battled injuries and neither one had a particularly good year. Brown rushed for 497 yards and 2 touchdowns, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. Addai ran for 495 yards and 4 touchdowns, averaging 4.3 yards per tote. With no run game to fear, defenses could focus entirely on Manning, and at midseason the pressure was starting to get to him. The INT’s started to pile up (the Colts were 18th in interceptions thrown this season) along with the losses. But Manning would come out of that funk and lead the team back to the playoffs for a 9th straight year.
Almost every skill position player on the depth chart dealt with an injury of some sort this season for Indy. Austin Collie made 58 catches for 649 yards and a team leading 8 touchdowns before being lost due to concussions. Dallas Clark caught 37 for 347 yards and 3 scores before he was knocked out for the season. Luckily for Indy, Reggie Wayne—easily their skill position player—remained the healthiest and had another great season, catching 111 passes for 1355 yards and 6 touchdowns. Pierre Garcon caught 67 passes for 784 yards and 6 touchdowns. Rookie Blair White stepped in when others went down and caught 36 passes for 355 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jacob Tamme became the go-to tight end when Clark was lost, and Tamme was highly effective, making 67 receptions for 631 yards and 4 scores.
Aside from the picks, Indy does a pretty good job hanging onto the ball (tied 6th in fumbles lost), as they don’t run it that often and Peyton almost never gets sacked. They aren’t a ball control team (19th in time of possession), as that sort of goes along with not being able to run it, but they can certainly sustain drives. The Colts were the 5th best offense on 3rd down this season, and that’s key, because they really don’t have as many big play weapons on offense as they once did. Also, Colts running backs were not completely useless this season, as they did help out near the goal line. Indy finished tied for 12th in rushing TD’s this season. Javarris James was the NFL’s version of the vulture relief pitcher this season, scoring 7 touchdowns, despite carrying the ball just 46 times for only 112 yards.
New York Jets Defense: Whether or not the Jets offense is truly better this season than last year is debatable. However, it would be hard to argue that New York’s defense is anywhere near as good this season as it was last year. Remember, the Jets finished last season #1 in total defense, passing defense, scoring defense, and on 3rd down. They were the hands down best defense in football. That is clearly not the case this season. Don’t get me wrong: the Jets are still a very good defensive team, but they did not have the same type of season as they did last year. The Jets were 3rd in total defense this season and 6th in scoring defense, allowing 19.0 points a game. They were the 10th best defense on 3rd down and 6th best against the pass (tied 19th in pass TD’s and tied 25th in picks).
It’s not that they have a bunch of guys injured or have had a number of players having bad seasons. The biggest factor is probably just that the league has “figured out” the Rex Ryan’s defensive schemes to some extent. That might be overstating it, but in this day and age, no matter how much of a genius you are, eventually other teams are going to become more comfortable with what you do. Obviously the Jets are still a very tough defense to face. They are tied 8th in sacks, 6th in opponent’s passer rating, and #1 in the league in opponent’s completion percentage. Outside linebackers get the sacks for this defense, with Jason Taylor recording 5, Calvin Pace getting 5.5, and Bryan Thomas notching 6 to lead the team. Antonio Cromartie and Dwight Lowery had 3 picks a piece, with Lowery taking 2 back for touchdowns. Maurice Cole also had a pick six. New York is tied 9th in forced fumbles and 2nd in the NFL in fumbles recovered. They are still tough against the run, finishing 3rd in rush yards allowed and tied for 3rd in yards per attempt (tied for 12th in rush TD’s allowed).
Indianapolis Defense: The Colts have been so consistent during their run of success over the last decade plus that you could almost write the same scouting report on them every season. They have always been a bit suspect defensively, particularly against the run. It was the same story this year, as the Colts allowed 24.2 points a game (23rd) and finished 20th in total defense. They were 25th against the run (tied 25th in yards per attempt and tied 20th in rushing TD’s allowed).
In the past, the Colts have often been a bend but don’t break defense, yielding yards and waiting for the big sack or the big turnover. Once teams fell behind, as they often did against Manning, they wouldn’t be able to stick with the run as much and Indy’s great defensive ends could pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. However, this season the Colts had a number of key men go down in the secondary, most importantly safety Bob Sanders, who was injured in week 1 and never played again. The Colts were still bending a lot this season on defense but they also broke quite often, and the turnovers and sacks did not come. The Colts were tied for 23rd in sacks, tied for 23rd in fumbles forced (tied 13th in fumbles recovered), and tied for 30th in interceptions. Indy still has their great bookend pass rushers Dwight Freeny (10 sacks and 5 forced fumbles) and Robert Mathis (11 sacks), but there are not many other play makers on that side of the ball. Kelvin Hayden was the biggest force in the secondary for the Colts this season, making 2 picks and returning them both for scores.
The offense wasn’t quite as explosive so teams were able to stay with the run, and teams had a ton of success running the ball on the defense. For these reasons, the Colts were 13th in passing yards allowed and tied 9th in passing TD’s allowed, but in reality they really weren’t very good on pass defense either. They finished 27th in opponent’s QB rating, 21st on 3rd down, and dead last in opponent’s completion percentage.
New York Jets Special Teams: The Jets are strong on special teams. They were the 3rd best kickoff coverage team this season (23rd in touchback percentage) and finished 14th in net punting. Steve Weatherford led the NFL in punts downed inside the 20. New York was 3rd in kickoff return average and 20th in punt return average. The only weak spot is on place kicks and we all know that can loom large in the postseason. Nick Folk was tied for 27th this season in FG percentage (77%) and just 5 of 11 from 40+. He went 2 for 5 on kicks of 50+ yards and also had one blocked.
Indianapolis Special Teams: Again, the issues for the Colts on special teams are basically the same as they have been for 10 years. The Colts have always had a great place kicker, and Adam Vinatieri had another very accurate season, hitting on 93% of his tries (2nd best in the NFL), including going 9 for 10 on kicks of 40+ yards. Vinatieri's range is a question mark and he did not attempt a kick of 50 yards this season. Outside of place kicking, the Colts have usually had a lot of holes on special teams, and it was the same story this season. Indy was 14th in touchback percentage on kickoffs but 31st in kick coverage. Pat McAfee ended up tied for 21st in punts inside the 20 and tied for 27th in net average. The Colts were 29th in kick return average and 28th in punt return average.
Turnovers, Big Plays, Penalties, and Red Zone
New York Jets: The interesting thing about New York is that for being one of the best defensive teams they really don’t force that many turnovers. They had 24 takeaways this season, tied for 16th in the NFL. However, with their ball control offense, they don’t give the ball up very often either, turning it over 20 times this season (tied 8th) for a +4 turnover margin (tied 10th). And they still have the ability to get big plays from their defense and special teams. They ran 2 kickoffs back for touchdowns (both by Brad Smith) and had 3 pick-sixes. They also recorded a pair of safeties. On the flip side, they have not been hurt by big plays from the opposition. They had only 1 INT returned for a TD against them and did not give up a special teams TD. The Jets have been hurt by penalties this season (24th in penalties per game, 27th in penalty yards per game). They have not been good in the red zone on offense or defense (30th in offensive RZ scoring percentage, 25th in defensive RZ scoring percentage).
Indianapolis: The Colts allowed a punt return and a kick return for a touchdown. In addition, the most alarming aspect of Peyton and the Colts’ slump at midseason was the number of interceptions for touchdowns they gave up. For non-Colts fans it was actually kind of awesome because the rules on how many times you can play the Jim Mora rant basically went out the window. And it was justified. There are several points in the Jim Mora “playoffs?” rant where he goes off on how they had given up 4 interceptions for touchdowns on the season (at one point Mora is corrected by a media member who informs him that they had actually allowed 5 interceptions for touchdowns). Well, almost exactly 9 years after Mora’s most famous rant, Manning threw 11 interceptions over a 3-game period (all losses for the Colts), including 4 that were returned for touchdowns over the course of back to back games. That’s 4 INT’s returned for touchdowns in 2 games. If only Mora could have been at the mike during that stretch.
The Colts still somehow ended up 14th in giveaways with 24, while the defense forced just 20 turnovers (tied for 27th), giving Indy a -4 turnover differential (tied 20th). One other point to make is that those 4 pick-sixes are of course counted against Indy’s scoring defense. And as Mora points out at the start of his rant, you can’t blame that stuff on the defense. Plus, while Indy’s defense didn’t cause a ton of turnovers, the Colts still made their share of big plays on defense and special teams, returning a fumble and 2 picks to the end zone, getting a kickoff return for a TD, and also scoring on a blocked punt. The Colts are 5th in penalties per game and 11th in penalty yards per game. They are the top red zone scoring percentage offense in the league and 16th in opponent’s red zone scoring percentage.
Injury News
New York Jets: The Jets haven’t been hurt too badly by injuries, although they did lose a couple of key players. Reserve DE Ropati Pitoitua was lost to an Achilles tear before the start of the season, and then in the opening game, starting DT Kris Jenkins blew out his knee and was done for the year. A quick note on Jenkins: if this seems to happen almost every other year, it’s because it basically does. This was Jenkins’ 10th year in the league. In 6 of those seasons, Jenkins has played in all 16 games. In the other 4 seasons combined, Jenkins has played in a total of 12 games. This is why Jenkins averages just 8.4 games a season, despite playing every game of 6 full seasons! Anyway, losing their big nose tackle in the middle right off the bat hurt the Jets. However, losing SS Jim Leonhard for the year due to a broken shin in week 12 hurt much worse. An intelligent and gritty player, Leonhard really tied things together for the New York defense, and he simply could not be replaced.
DE’s Shawn Ellis, James Ihedigbo, and Trevor Pryce are listed as questionable. Ellis and Ihedigbo missed the season finale, and Price has been out the last 3 games. Cromartie and Darrelle Revis make up the best cornerback tandem in the game. They both missed week 17 but are listed as probable for Saturday. Safety Eric Smith and tackle Damien Woody are also listed as probable despite sitting out the final 3 weeks of the regular season. Interestingly, Sanchez does not appear on the injury report this week, despite sitting out last week’s game.
Indianapolis: The Colts were absolutely ravished by injuries on both sides of the ball this season. On defense, the area hardest hit was the secondary. DB’s Jamie Silva and Kevin Thomas missed the entire season, Melvin Bullitt was lost for the season in week 4, and Jerraud Powers went down for good in week 13. Most crucially, Bob Sanders suffered a severe elbow injury in week 1 and never came back. LB Cody Glenn went down in week 12 and was placed on IR.
The offense was also afflicted by injuries, and the hardest area hit on this side of the ball was WR/TE. Dallas Clark broke his hand in week 6 and was done for the year. WR Anthony Gonzalez was hurt in week 1 and missed the next 5 games. He came back in week 8 but suffered a season ending knee injury. Austin Collie missed 5 out of 7 games in the middle of the season, mostly due to a severe concussion. He returned in week 15 and made 8 catches for 87 yards and 2 TD’s, before getting knocked out again and being forced to pack it in for the year.
Guard Jaime Thomas (out last game), DT Daniel Muir (out last 2), safety Al Afalava (out last 2), and RB Michael Hart (out last 4) are questionable. Hayden and LB Clint Sessions are also listed as questionable, but they’ve been out for a while (Hayden last 5, Sessions last 9) and have been listed as questionable for much of that time.
Series History: This is actually one of the most famous series in NFL history, although much of that history occurred when the Colts were located in Baltimore. The Colts hold a 41-28 edge in the all-time series, but the Jets have a 2-1 edge in the playoffs. The Colts are 26-15 against the Jets since moving to Indianapolis, including 13-8 at home, and 1-1 in the playoffs (1-0 at home in the playoffs). The most famous meeting between these two occurred in Super Bowl III (1968), when Joe Namath and the Jets upset the mighty Colts, 16-7, in perhaps the most famous upset in professional sports history. In 2002, the Jets absolutely dominated and embarrassed Peyton and the Colts at home in the Wild Card round, winning 41-0. Last season these two met in Indianapolis in week 16, with the Colts 15-0. Indy took their starters out in the second half, and the Jets went on to win 29-15. The two teams met again at Indy in the AFC Championship Game, and this time the Colts won 30-17. The Colts are 1-0 against the Jets at home in the playoffs.
Team Playoff Histories
New York Jets: This is the 2nd straight playoff appearance for the Jets and the 14th in franchise history. They are 10-12 all-time in the playoffs (5-9 on the road) and 5-5 in the WC round (3-3 on the road). New York is 7-6 in their opening playoff game. The Jets are 2 for 2 making the playoffs in the Sanchez/Ryan era so far. They went 2-1 last season (2-1 on the road), beating the Bengals on the road in the WC round in the first playoff game for both Sanchez and Ryan.
Indianapolis: The Colts are back in the playoffs for a 9th straight year and the 11th time in the last 12 years. This is the 24th postseason appearance in the long history of the Colts. They are 19-19 all-time in the playoffs (10-5 at home) and 4-4 in the WC round (3-0 at home). The Colts are 10-13 in their opening game of the playoffs. This will be the 14th trip to the playoffs as the Indianapolis Colts. They are 11-12 in the postseason since moving to Indy (6-3 at home), playing all of the WC games in franchise history as the Indianapolis Colts. They are 5-8 in their opening playoff game since moving to Indianapolis. This will be the 11th trip to the playoffs for Peyton Manning. With Manning, the Colts are 9-9 in the playoffs (6-3 at home), going 3-3 in the WC round (3-0 at home). The Colts are just 4-6 in their opening playoff game with Manning at QB. The Colts are 2 for 2 making it to the playoffs under Jim Caldwell. They went 2-1 last year (2-0 at home), making it to the Super Bowl in Caldwell’s first season taking over for Tony Dungy.
Keys to the Game: The Colts should benefit from playing at home, in doors, on the turf. Playing at home hasn’t always meant success in the playoffs for the Colts, but with all of the pre-snap activity led by Manning, not having a crowd roaring against them will be a big positive. Obviously the Colts have a major edge at quarterback and in experience. While Rex Ryan is more folk hero/freak show than strategic genius, but I suppose the Jets get the coaching edge by default, as Jim Caldwell would appear to bring very little to the table.
Many people would look at this matchup and immediately go with the Colts because of their history and because they have Manning. Strangely, these are the exact factors that keep me open to the possibility of an upset. Peyton Manning is no choke artist. He has led dozens of comeback victories and scores of late game winning drives. But, I would not exactly call Manning a “big game” quarterback. I don’t care what anybody says: there is just something different about Manning in the playoffs. I don’t know exactly what it is. It could be that he freaks out (for lack of a better term) and tries to do too much because of the magnitude of the game. It could be that he doesn’t get enough of a sense of urgency and therefore isn’t able to bring his level of play up a notch along with the opposition. But whatever it is, Manning is simply not normally the cool, precise surgeon in the playoffs that he usually is during the regular season. Remember, in 6 of Indy’s previous 10 trips to the playoffs with Manning they have been 1-and-done, losing at home in 3 of those years. They’ve never lost at home in the WC round, but they’ve lost twice at home when favored by double digits in the divisional round.
It’s not only Manning’s shaky playoff history and Indy’s history of underachieving in the postseason that makes me lean towards an upset. A lot of different matchups favor the Jets in this game. Some have said that New York’s defense can be run on if you know how, but the Colts can’t run on anybody, and I certainly don’t see that changing against the Jets. It will all be on Manning to make it happen and I think the Jets will be able to pressure him. Unlike most teams, the Jets have the corners to be able to guard Garcon and Wayne without using too many other guys. If Manning has to move in the pocket and is getting hit he will be less accurate. He’s much more likely to make a mistake.
On the other side of the ball, the biggest weakness for the Jets is the inexperience and inconsistent play of their quarterback. However, the Colts can’t stop anybody on the ground, and that’s what the Jets do best. Not only will the Jets be able to move the ball and take time off the clock and away from Manning’s offense, they’ll also be able to limit the number of times that Sanchez has to make a play and might make a mistake.
The Jets have a clear edge in special teams. They have a very good chance of getting a good return or two, and good punting and kickoff coverage should help out the defense. If the game goes down to the wire, you have to like Indy’s chances on a crucial kick better than New York’s. There is nobody else you’d want making a huge kick in the playoffs than Adam Vinatieri. However, the Jets have won their share of close games this season, so they won’t be timid if the game is on the line in the closing minutes.
One last key to this game will be maximizing scoring opportunities. The Jets can’t afford to fall behind and have to come back in a hostile environment. If they get a chance to put points on the board early they have to get it done. And they don’t want to be settling for field goals. For one thing, Folk is not the most rock solid kicker (71.6% on FG tries over the last 2 seasons). More importantly, they will need to put up points when they have the chance because Manning will find a way to get some scores for Indy.
Sunday’s Early Game
Baltimore (-1.5) @ Chiefs
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: This is probably the first round game most likely to produce a surprise result. The Seahawks appear to have no chance, and it wouldn’t be a major surprise for the underdog to win the other two matchups. While the Ravens aren’t heavy favorites in this one, I think most people expect the experienced Baltimore team to have the upper hand over the playoff newcomers from KC. The Chiefs have to be the biggest unknown of the first round. They are a hard team to get a handle on. The Ravens were a popular pick to go to the Super Bowl this season, while the Chiefs were thought to be improved, but were not expected to host a first round game. This is one of two first round games featuring a road favorite.
Playoff Position
Baltimore: The Ravens still had a chance at the AFC North title going into week 17, and they managed to hold off the Bengals, 13-7 at home, to finish tied for 1st in the division with the Steelers at 12-4. However, they lost the tiebreaker, and thus had to settle for a wild card bid and the #5 seed.
Kansas City: The Chiefs had already clinched the AFC West title prior to week 17 but they needed a win to hang on to the #3 seed. They got beat down by the Raiders at home, 31-10, to finish 10-6. With the Colts winning, KC wound up the #4 seed in the AFC.
Records and Trends
Baltimore: The Ravens are 12-4 overall (8-7-1 ATS) and 5-3 on the road (5-2-1 ATS). They head into the playoffs riding a 4-game win streak (3-1 ATS). They have outscored opponents by 5.4 points a game this season (6th). The Ravens are 3-3 ATS over their last 10. They have won 3 straight on the road (3-0 ATS).
Kansas City: The Chiefs are 10-6 overall (9-7 ATS) and 7-1 at home (5-3 ATS). The Chiefs have a +2.5 average scoring differential (13th best) and they are 5-2 in their last 7 games. However, the Chiefs are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10. Their 7-game win streak at home was snapped in the season finale. They are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Team Stats and Rankings
Baltimore Offense: Ever since the Brian Billick era came to an end and John Harbaugh took over in Baltimore, the Ravens have made a concerted effort to become a better offensive team. Obviously, they wanted to do this without their always tough defense losing much of its power. This plan had worked quite in Harbaugh’s first two seasons, as they made dramatic improvements in offense and defense in 2008, and last season did even better on offense while slipping only a little defensively. Going into this season, with Joe Flacco heading into his 3rd season, Ray Rice coming off a breakthrough season without many miles on his tires, and Anquan Boldin added to the offensive mix, many thought this would be the season Baltimore put everything together. For whatever reason, the Ravens have actually regressed this season, on both sides of the ball.
The slip in offensive production has been the most severe and the most puzzling. After finishing 11th and 9th in scoring offense and 18th and 13th in total offense in 2008 and 2009 respectively, the Ravens slipped to 16th in scoring offense (22.3 points a game) and 22nd in total offense this season. Joe Flacco had another solid season, completing 62.6% of his passes for 3622 yards. He threw 25 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, posting a 93.6 rating. Flacco set career highs in yards, TD’s, fewest INT”s, and passer rating. The Ravens were 20th in pass yards (a slight drop from 18th last season), tied 15th in pass TD’s, 6th in INT’s, 6th in passer rating, and 9th in completion percentage.
Baltimore’s problem on offense this season has not been the passing attack, although the added offensive weapons may not have produced as big of a boost as anticipated. Boldin led the team with 64 catches, 837 yards, and 7 touchdowns. The always dependable Derrick Mason was just about as productive, making 61 catches for 802 yards and 7 touchdowns. Veteran TE Todd Heap caught 40 balls for 599 yards and 5 TD’s. TJ Houshmandzadeh made 30 catches for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The reason for Baltimore’s fall in offensive production this season has been the surprising drop off in the rushing game. Ray Rice rushed for 1220 yards and 5 touchdowns this season, also catching 63 passes for 556 yards and a TD. Willis McGahee ran for 380 yards and 5 touchdowns. While these may be solid numbers, they do not match 2009’s production. Rice ran for 119 fewer yards this season despite 53 additional carries, his yards per attempt average dropping dramatically from 5.3 last season to 4.0 this season. He scored 2 fewer touchdowns on the ground, and caught 15 fewer passes for 146 less yards receiving. McGahee’s production was also far less this season. On only 9 fewer attempts, McGahee rushed for 164 less yards, his average dropping from 5.0 yards per rush last season to 3.8 yards per rush this season. He scored 7 fewer touchdowns. The Ravens were 14th in rushing yards this season (5th last season), tied 25th in yards per carry (4th last season), and tied 18th in rushing TD’s (tied 1st last season).
The dramatic drop in production by both running backs, including one who should be in his prime, brings suspicion on the offensive line. Tackle Jared Gaither was supposed to start at right tackle this season, with Michael Oher moving to the left side. However, Gaither was plagued by a back condition that kept him unable to play through the first 6 games and the Ravens were forced to cut him. Outside of the loss of Gaither, the rest of the expected starters remained in place. The Ravens had depth at offensive line and they have had good health. It’s too big of a leap for me to say that Gaither’s absence has caused the problems in the running game. It’s really a mystery.
The offensive line struggled in pass protection last season and they were a little bit worse this season, as the Ravens finished tied 23rd in sacks allowed (20th last season). Baltimore was 16th in 3rd down conversion percentage (11th last season) but they did a decent job holding onto the ball, finishing tied 13th in fumbles lost and 11th in time of possession (19th last season). This is key, as the Ravens defense is getting older, and at times they appeared gassed late in games.
Kansas City Offense: The Kansas City offense is built on a strong rushing attack, taking care of the ball, and using imaginative plays to make up for a lack of explosive players at the skill positions. KC averaged 22.9 points a game this season (14th in the NFL) and finished 12th in total offense. Their rushing attack was dominant this season, as they led the NFL in rushing yards and finished tied 4th in yards per attempt (tied 12th in rushing touchdowns). Jamaal Charles quietly had a fantastic season, rushing for 1467 yards, averaging a sparkling 6.4 yards per carry. Perhaps the reason that Charles’ stellar season received such little fanfare—apart from the fact that he plays for the Kansas City Chiefs—was that he didn’t make that big of a splash as a fantasy player due to scoring only 5 rushing TD’s. Still, he was a stud, also catching 45 passes for 468 yards and 3 TD. The Jets did not bring back Thomas Jones after last season and he ended up in KC. Jones put together another solid, consistent season this year, rushing for 896 yards and 6 touchdowns (3.7 yards per attempt).
Kansas City’s passing attack is clearly not their weapon of choice, as they are 30th in passing yards this season and tied 23rd in completion percentage, but they were able to use the pass effectively at times to supplement the ground game. They were 10th in passing TD’s and 13th in passer rating. Matt Cassel threw for 3116 yards, completing just 58.2% of his passes, but he managed to toss 27 touchdowns while throwing only 7 picks, posting a 93.0 rating. The Chiefs don’t have many explosive players at the skill positions, but they do have one very, very explosive player. Dwayne Bowe was a freak of nature at times this season, making 72 catches for 1162 yards, including 15 for touchdowns. When teams made it a goal not to let Bowe beat them and had the personnel to do it, he could be nullified almost completely, as there really aren’t any other guys who can draw attention away from him. Still, Bowe was a big play monster this season, finishing tied for 6th in receptions of 20+ yards and catching 3 more TD’s than any other player.
The Chiefs were one of the best teams in the NFL at taking care of the ball this season, finishing tied for 2nd in fumbles lost and 3rd in interceptions thrown. With the strong ground game and few turnovers, the Chiefs finished 9th in time of possession. They were 20th in 3rd down conversion percentage and tied 12th in sacks allowed.
Baltimore Defense: It has been said that although we still think of the Ravens as being a team built on a top notch defense, in reality the defense is not what is once was, and the Ravens strength is now on offense. This is not entirely accurate. For one thing, as noted in detail above, the Ravens were not exactly an offensive juggernaut this season. More importantly, while it’s true that Baltimore’s defense has declined, they are still very good and still very capable. And the defense is most certainly still Baltimore’s strength and its heart and soul.
The weakening of the Ravens defense has not been all that obvious. It has only been clear at certain times and in certain games. On Thursday night in Atlanta in week 10, Baltimore’s offense got a late score to take a 21-19 lead on the Falcons with just minutes to play. But the Falcons drove quickly down the field on the Ravens defense, scoring a TD to retake the lead and win the game, 26-21. On Monday Night Football in week 14, the Ravens returned the 2nd half kickoff to make the score 28-7 in their favor, and they looked to be on the way to an easy win. However, the Texans would outscore the Ravens 21-0 over the rest of the 2nd half. Over the final 11 minutes of the 4th quarter, the Texans went on back to back drives of 99 and 95 yards, scoring 15 points against a Ravens defense that looked to be completely spent. That sent the game into overtime where ironically it was that old Baltimore defense which won the game, returning an interception for the game winning score. Still, the feeling you came away from the game with was that Baltimore’s defense was looking a little bit average these days.
The Ravens are older, but they still have a handful of impact players spread across the defense. Ray Lewis has lost a step to be sure, but he’s still the heart and soul of the defense, and he’s still a play maker. Lewis had 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 INT this season, returning 1 for a touchdown. Lewis’ partner in crime Ed Reed, missed the first 6 games of the season, yet still led the league with 8 interceptions. DE Terrell Suggs led the team with 11 sacks and Haloti Ngata is a force at the nose tackle position (5.5 sacks). Safety Josh Wilson had 3 picks and returned 1 for a TD (to win the game against Houston).
Again, the slip in defense for Baltimore has only been obvious on these rare occasions. The Ravens finished 3rd in scoring defense for a 3rd consecutive season, allowing just 16.9 points a game. However, there was a decline in total defense, as Baltimore finished 10th in yards allowed after finishing 3rd in that category last season. The defense is no less tough or intimidating than they have been for almost a decade. To be clear, the Ravens are still very difficult to run on. They were 5th best against the run this season, finishing tied for 7th in yards per attempt, and tied for 1st in rushing TD’s allowed. It is still a dangerous and opportunistic defense, as the Ravens were tied 8th in interceptions and tied 12th in fumbles forced (although just tied for 24th in fumbles recovered). The drop off has come in the areas most affected by age: speed and stamina. Baltimore was just tied for 27th in sacks and 21st against the pass (tied 8th against the pass last season). The defense fell to 15th on 3rd downs this season, after finishing 11th in that statistic last season. They were not pushovers by any stretch, as they were tied 9th in passing TD’s allowed, 5th in opponent’s passer rating, and 11th in opponent’s completion percentage. But as the game wore on and the defense grew tired, teams continued to put the ball in the air and eventually had success.
Kansas City Defense: It sounds sarcastic, but in all seriousness, KC’s strength on defense this season was being no worse than slightly below average in just about every conceivable category or statistic. They really aren’t especially strong against the pass or the run, they aren’t a turnover machine, and they weren’t simply fortunate thanks to great defense in the red zone. They were just decent in most areas and not bad in any area.
Kansas City allowed 20.4 points a game this season, 11th best in the NFL. They were 14th in total defense, finishing 17th against the pass and 14th against the run (tied 17th in yards per attempt). KC did do a good job of not breaking as much as they bent (if that makes any sense), finishing tied 13th in passing TD’s allowed and tied for 12th in rushing TD’s allowed. They were the 13th best defense on 3rd down.
The Chiefs did a decent job defending the pass this season, finishing 8th in opponent’s QB rating and 3rd in opponent’s completion percentage. In addition, they got help from a solid pass rush, finishing tied for 10th in sacks. OLB Tamba Hali terrorized quarterbacks all season, recording 14.5 sacks (2nd best in the NFL) and forcing 4 fumbles. DE Wallace Gilberry—an undrafted free agent (2008) playing in a line along with a #5 pick (Glenn Dorsey) and a #3 pick (Tyson Jackson)—came out of nowhere to rack up 7 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.
KC is not a defense that forces a ton of turnovers. They were tied 19th in interceptions and tied 20th in fumbles recovered (despite being 8th in fumbles forced). But KC’s 2010 1st round pick, safety Eric Berry, made an immediate impact, picking off 4 passes and returning 1 for a touchdown. Brandon Flowers and Derrick Johnson also took picks to the end zone. For the most part, however, KC is not a big play defense. Like the offense, the defense is just steady and they don’t allow big plays (tied 10th in pass plays of 20+ yards allowed and rush plays of 20+ yards allowed).
Baltimore Special Teams: For the most part, the Ravens are solid in special teams. The kicking game is a strength. The Ravens were 6th in FG%, as Billy Cundiff connected on 90% of attempts, hitting 7 of 9 from 40+ yards (0 for 1 on tries of 50+). Sam Koch is one of the better punters in the game, and the Ravens were tied for 4th in net punting and 2nd in punts downed inside the 20. The Ravens were a surprisingly poor 24th on punt returns, but they finished 6th on kickoff returns. Cundiff had a Ruthian season on kickoffs, leading the NFL by a wide margin in touchback percentage. Strangely, the Ravens were dead last covering kickoffs, though clearly the small number of attempts has a lot to do with the average being high.
Kansas City Special Teams: Like the rest of the Kansas City team, the Chiefs are not great at special teams but they aren’t bad either. They were 22nd in touchback percentage on kickoffs but 6th in kickoff coverage. They were tied 17th in net punting but 4th in punts downed inside the 20 (Dustin Colquitt is the KC punter). They are not especially dangerous on returns, finishing 28th in kick return average and 17th in punt return average. The place kicking game is a bit of a weak spot. The Chiefs were tied 27th in FG%, as Ryan Succop hit on 77% of FG tries, going 7 for 11 from 40+ and 1 for 3 on kicks of 50+ yards. Succop also had a FG try blocked.
Turnovers, Big Plays, Penalties, and Red Zone
Baltimore: The Ravens did not force as many takeaways as usual this season, getting only 22 (tied 21st), but they only turned it over 18 times (tied 5th) for a +4 turnover differential (tied 10th). Baltimore’s points allowed total remained low this season in part due to good special teams play and avoiding big mistakes on offense. The Ravens did not allow a single special teams or defensive touchdown this season. The Ravens returned 3 interceptions for touchdowns, and David Reed brought a kickoff back the distance for a TD. The Ravens do not commit many penalties, as they were tied 10th in penalties per game and 6th in penalty yards per game. Baltimore’s rushing struggles came back to hurt them in the red zone, as they finished 22nd in RZ scoring percentage this season. As you might expect, they are a tough defensive team in the red zone (5th in opponents RZ scoring percentage).
Kansas City: Although the Chiefs only forced 22 turnovers (tied 21st) they took excellent care of the ball, giving it away only 12 times all season (2nd) for a +10 turnover differential (tied 5th). The defense turned in 3 pick-sixes and Dexter McCluster took a punt to the house for a score. On the other side of things, the Chiefs allowed only 1 fumble returned for a TD and 1 pick six, but they also gave up a KR for a TD and had a blocked FG returned for a score against them. The Chiefs were tied 10th in penalties per game and 16th in penalty yards per game. They were the 8th best offensive RZ scoring team but 31st in opponent’s RZ scoring percentage.
Injury News
Baltimore: The Ravens have been hit by a few injury bullets this season but nothing devastating. As mentioned earlier, tackle Jared Gaither was never able to recover from a back condition and was eventually cut without playing a down. Rookie tackle Ramon Harewood also missed the entire season with injuries to both knees (not a good sign for a first year player). LB Sergio Kindle, another rookie, fell down a flight of stairs in July and suffered a career threatening head injury. Obviously he also missed the entire season. The secondary took a couple of hits prior to the season as well. Starting corner Dominique Foxworth tore an ACL, ending his year before it began, and reserve safety Marcus Pashal also went down with a season ending leg injury in the preseason.
The Ravens are fairly healthy heading into the postseason but they do have a few key players nursing injuries. LB Danelle Ellerbe and CB Josh Wilson are listed as questionable with shoulder injuries. Both are expected to play. TE Dennis Pitta missed week 17 with a concussion and LB Tavares Gooden was out with a shoulder. They are both questionable for Sunday. Safety and punt returner Tom Zibikowski is also questionable, but he has missed the last 2 games with a back injury. Ed Reed and Michael Oher are probable.
Kansas City: The Chiefs had a slew of players sent to the IR, but didn’t lose any key players. They’ve had some scares, but for the most part they are remarkably healthy heading into the playoffs. TE Brad Cottam, RB Tevaris Johnson, CB Maurice Leggett, WR Jeremy Urban, and LB Cameron Sheffield were all lost to season ending injuries before week 1. Late in the season, backup corners Jackie Bates and Donald Washington hit the IR.
KC’s excellent injury luck ran out on Wednesday, December 8th, when QB Matt Cassel underwent an emergency appendectomy. The Chiefs didn’t announce until the night before that Sunday’s game that Cassel wouldn’t play. He missed only 1 game, but I’m still curious to know if the procedure is having any negative effects on him at this point. The Chiefs, however, aren’t called Patriots-Midwest for nothing, and they have a strict tight lipped policy against revealing injury information. KC got another scare earlier this week when Bowe came down with an illness. For fear of the sickness spreading throughout the locker room, Bowe was not even practicing with the team for several days. He is back now and listed as probable. I have no doubt that he’ll play, but you’d have to expect that he’ll be less than 100% this Sunday.
Series History: There is not a lot of history between these two. The Chiefs hold a 3-2 edge in the all-time series. This will be the first playoff meeting. The Ravens are actually 1-0 all-time at Kansas City (2006).
Team Playoff Histories
Baltimore: This is the 3rd straight playoff appearance for the Ravens and the 7th in their history (all since 2000). They have an 8-5 record in the postseason (6-3 on the road) and a 4-1 record in the WC round (3-0 on the road). The Ravens are 4-2 in their opening game of the playoffs. Ray Lewis has been a part of every playoff game in franchise history. The Ravens are 3 for 3 getting to the postseason in the Harbaugh/Flacco era. They have gone 3-2 during that time, all on the road, including 2-0 in the WC round.
Kansas City: This will be the 16th postseason appearance for the Chiefs and the first since 2006. Kansas City is 8-13 all-time in the playoffs (2-4 at home). The Chiefs are 2-5 in the WC round (2-0 at home). The Chiefs are just 5-10 in their opening game of the playoffs. They haven’t had much success in the postseason since Super Bowl 4, and they’ve had almost no success recently. They have lost 6 straight playoff games, including 3 straight at home. They have lost their last 2 WC round games and they have been 1-and-done in their last 5 trips to the postseason. This is obviously the first trip to the playoffs for the Chiefs in the Haley era.
Keys to the Game: I wrote earlier that this might be the game most likely to produce a surprise because the Chiefs are unproven and the Ravens are thought to be a Super Bowl contender. But I don’t expect us to be surprised. The Chiefs have earned our respect but they’ve already overachieved in getting to the playoffs. Historically, when the Chiefs have been good, Kansas City has been a very tough place for opponents to play…except in the playoffs. And the Ravens will not be scared by a road playoff game; almost their entire history in the playoffs has taken place on the road. I think the Ravens have the QB edge, although I would place Cassel closer to Flacco then most. But Flacco will be playing in the postseason for a 3rd straight year, while Cassel has never been in the playoffs before, and has really only been playing football for 3 straight years. More importantly, Flacco has the edge simply because he has so many more weapons at his disposal. Obviously the Ravens have the coaching edge, or at least, the head coaching edge. The coordinators for the Chiefs almost even that playing field (although you have to wonder if Fat Charlie won’t be a little distracted by thoughts of his next position as OC at Florida).
I don’t like this matchup for the Chiefs. They have the top ranked rushing attack in the league, but it’s not going to be an easy task running on the Baltimore defense. If the Ravens zero in on the run, Kansas City will have to try and get the ball to Dwayne Bowe any way that they can, but as suspect as Baltimore’s secondary has been, they should be able to limit his impact. The Chiefs just don’t have enough other threats. KC has relied on creative play design and play calling to make up for their lack of talent at the skill positions, but I don’t know that it will work against a smart, well coached defense like Baltimore’s. Plus, the Ravens will have looked at all the film and learned all the tendencies. An end around or slip screen is just not going to be that hard for the Ravens to read and react to.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens should have the edge if they have a game plan that makes sense and execute well. There’s no reason to come out and try and be the Indianapolis Colts in this game. On the road, against a team with a good pass rush, Baltimore should line up and rush the ball. They should grind it out and try and impose their will. Mix in passes to Boldin and Mason and Heap, stay on schedule, and convert on 3rd downs. If they do that they should be successful. If they throw deep balls on 2nd and 10 and put the ball in the air too much they could get into trouble.
The Ravens probably have the edge in special teams. Both teams take care of the ball and don’t give up big plays. This should be a well played and competitive game. Still, I think the Ravens will be in complete control by the end. It should not come down to the final moments.
Sunday’s Late Day Game
Green Bay (+2.5) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Packers pull off the upset
Comment: I believe this is the best matchup of the Wild Card round. These teams are evenly matched, and either one could end up in the Super Bowl. These are also both older franchises with good traditions and great fan bases. It could be the best game of the week, and it might end up being the most important in terms of the rest of the postseason. This will be a rematch from the opening week of the season.
Playoff Position
Green Bay: The Packers held off the Bears at home in week 17, winning 10-3 to finish 10-6. With the win, the Packers earned the final wild card bid and the #6 seed in the NFC.
Philadelphia: The Eagles won the NFC East weeks ago, but their stunning loss at home to the Vikings on Tuesday night in week 16 locked them into the #3 spot.
Records and Trends
Green Bay: The Packers are 10-6 overall (9-7 ATS) but just 3-5 on the road (4-4 ATS). They have an excellent +9.2 average scoring differential (2nd best in the NFL) and they have won their last 2 games, but they are just 3-3 over their last 6 (3-3 ATS). They have lost 3 straight on the road (1-2 ATS).
Philadelphia: The Eagles ended up 10-6 overall (7-9 ATS) but just 4-4 at home (3-5 ATS). They have outscored opponents by 3.8 points a game (9th). The Eagles lost their last 2 games (0-2 ATS) but they had won 6 of 7 prior to that. They are just 4-6 ATS in their last. They have lost 2 straight at home (0-2 ATS).
Team Stats and Rankings
Green Bay Offense: Green Bay’s offense is all about their quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They have been hurt by numerous injuries, they have no running game to speak of, and the offensive line is prone to streaks of ineptitude. It’s been that way for 3 years but Rodgers has kept the offense going through it all. Things caught up to him a bit this year as the offense slipped and he was knocked out of the lineup for a while. But overall the offense was solid and Rodgers was the reason why.
The Packers scored 24.2 points a game this season (10th in the NFL) and finished 9th in total offense. This was down from the last couple of seasons, as the Packers were 5th and 3rd in scoring offense and 8th and 6th in total offense in 2008 and 2009 respectively. They were 5th in passing yards and tied 4th in pass TD’s. Rodgers completed 65.7% of his passes for 3922 yards, throwing 28 TD’s against 11 picks, and posting a 101.2 passer rating. Green Bay was 3rd in the NFL in passer rating, 6th in completion percentage, and tied 9th in INT’s thrown. The Packers were also tied 9th in fumbles lost. Despite the lack of a run game, Green Bay still finished 7th in time of possession, and they were 8th in the league on 3rd down. Rodgers is a tough, smart, and mobile quarterback. If he wasn’t he would probably be dead by now, as he often needs his legs and his instincts to keep from being creamed in the pocket (even with a mobile QB, the Packers were still tied for 19th in sacks allowed).
But Rodgers doesn’t just use his mobility to avoid sacks and keep plays alive. He ran for 356 yards and 4 touchdowns this season, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. Believe it or not, Rodgers finished 2nd on the team in rushing yards and tied for 1st in rush TD’s. Green Bay just hasn’t been able to run the ball effectively this season. They’ve lost backs to injuries and the offensive line has struggled at times. They were a decent rushing team last year, finishing 14th in the league, but they fell to 24th in rushing yards this season (tied 25th in yards per attempt and tied 18th in rush TD’s). The Packers ground game took a big hit early on when Ryan Grant—easily their top back—went down again, suffering a season ending knee injury in week 1. Grant left the Packers without many good options. Brandon Jackson was the primary running back the rest of the way, rushing for 703 yards and 3 touchdowns (also caught 43 passes for 342 yards and a TD as a receiver) but he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. John Kuhn scored 4 rushing TD’s (and also caught a pair of TD’s) and he’s a fun guy to root for, but he’s not very good. Green Bay was just not very effective running the ball this season and there really wasn’t much they could do about it.
Fortunately for Rodgers, the Packers do have several capable pass catchers (although Jermichael Finley was lost early in the season). Greg Jennings is the go-to guy, making 76 catches for 1265 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. Donald Driver is nearing the end of his career but his tank is not quite empty, as he caught 51 balls for 565 yards and 4 TD’s this season. James Jones is another solid wideout and he had 50 receptions for 679 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jordy Nelson contributed with 45 catches for 582 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Philadelphia Offense: What an interesting turn of events in Philadelphia this season. For most of the Andy Reid era, the Eagles had built their team around a great defense and a play making QB in Donovan McNabb. Over the last few years, however, the Eagles had steadily been adding pieces to the offense. With the roster full of explosive offensive weapons, the Eagles finally decided to end their time with the injury prone, inconsistent, and often sully McNabb. They traded him within the division and gave a contract extension to the unproven and inexperienced Kevin Kolb. The Eagles seemed convinced that Kolb was a guy who would be a successful starting QB in the NFL but many people outside the organization were not so sure.
Then in week 1, Kolb gets knocked out with a concussion and Michael Vick steps in and plays well in his stead. The story would continue to twist. With Kolb unavailable in week 2, Vick played brilliantly in leading the Eagles to a win over Detroit. Reid insisted after the game that Kolb would not lose his starting job, but after thinking things over, he changed his mind during the following week. In week 3, Vick was excellent again as the Eagles crushed the Jags. Week 4 was the highly anticipated return of McNabb as the Redskins came to town. The fact that Vick would now be facing him as QB for the Eagles made things much more interesting. However, Vick suffered rib and chest injuries in the first quarter and was knocked out of the game. Suddenly, Kolb had another shot. He played okay but the Skins won. It didn’t really matter because Vick was not going to be able to play for a couple of weeks. Kolb played very well in back to back wins over the Niners and Falcons. Now what?
It looked like Vick’s window had slammed shut. Reid was going to go with the hot hand, and if the Eagles kept winning he wasn’t going to change things. Plus, if Kolb was as good as the Eagles thought he wouldn’t lose the job from this point on. But the next week in Tennessee Kolb was terrible, firing two costly picks and fumbling the ball on the Titans 3 yard line, as the Eagles got hammered 37-19. Philly had a bye week coming up next and after the Tennessee game Reid announced that Vick would be the starter in their next game. Vick threw for a score and ran for another as the Eagles beat the Colts in week 9 and that sealed the deal. As long as Vick was healthy he was the guy. The phenomenon peaked the following Monday night in Washington, as Vick put together one of the greatest individual performances in history, leading the Eagles in a blowout win over their rivals. Vick’s comeback was complete. Actually, that’s not even the best way to say it. Vick’s journey from the lowest of lows to a place far higher than he had ever been before was complete.
The Eagles did not capture lightning in a bottle this season. What really happened is this. They loaded up a truck of dynamite, small arms, and explosives. As they drove the truck, they carried in the front seat with them a new M-16 that they thought would work well. Just for assurances, they brought along an old 45 that might not even work, placing it in the glove compartment just in case. Early in the journey the M-16 jammed and they were forced to pull out the 45. As they were pulling the 45 out of the glove compartment it went off, firing into the gas tank. Sparks caused an explosion in the tank, which in turn ignited all of the dynamite, small arms, and other explosives, turning everything within a 500 mile radius into ash. This is what happened.
The Michael Vick Experience 2.0 would slow down eventually and he would continue to deal with injuries (or at least pain and discomfort), but he still managed to turn the Eagles into one of the scariest offensive machines in recent memory and lead them back to the postseason. To be sure, Vick was not the only cog in the Eagles machine, but when he combined with all of those other weapons the result was similar to splitting the atom. The Eagles scored 27.4 points a game this season, 3rd best in football, and they were 2nd in total offense. They were 9th in passing (tied 8th in passing touchdowns) and 5th in rushing (5th in rushing TD’s), leading the league in yards per carry. Vick played in 12 games, making 11 starts, and only playing start to finish in 10 games. Yet he threw for 3018 yards, completing 62.6% of his passes. He fired 21 TD’s and only 6 picks, posting a 100.2 rating. He ran for 676 yards and 9 TD’s, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Kolb ended up playing in 7 games, making 5 starts, and playing 4 games start to finish. He completed 60.8% of his passes for 1197 yards, 7 touchdowns and 7 picks, posting a 76.1 rating. The Eagles were 7th in the league in QB rating and tied 12th in completion percentage.
Vick’s style of dodging the rush and buying time and scrambling and tucking and running will also raise a team’s sacks allowed total, and the Eagles finished tied for 29th in sacks allowed this season. However, Vick took pretty good care of the ball, something he has not usually done during his career. The Eagles were tied 9th in INT’s thrown. Vick lost only 1 fumble, though the Eagles still finished 21st in fumbles lost. Philly was the 14th best offense on 3rd down and they were 12th in the league in time of possession.
LeSean McCoy was the feature back for the Eagles this season, his 2nd year in the league, and he took that next step to greatness, rushing for 1080 yards and 7 TD’s and catching 78 passes for 592 yards and 2 TD’s. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry. 2nd year WR Jerry Maclin led the Eagles in catches and touchdown receptions this season, grabbing 70 balls for 964 yards and 10 touchdowns. Desean Jackson battled injuries but when he was on the field he was perhaps the most explosive player in football. He caught 47 passes for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns (also scoring a rushing TD). He led the team in receiving yards and yards per catch (22.5). Jackson averaged 11.8 yards per punt return, also making perhaps the biggest play of the season, returning a punt for a game winning TD with no time on the clock against the Giants. Jason Avant chipped in with 51 catches for 573 yards and a TD. TE Brent Celek caught 42 passes for 511 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Green Bay Defense: Injuries also hit Green Bay’s defense hard, but in the end the Packers were able to remain one of the better defensive teams in the game. The Packers allowed just 15.0 points a game this season, 2nd best in the NFL. They were 5th in total defense (finished 2nd last year) and 5th against the pass (4th in passing TD’s allowed). The main reason that Green Bay wasn’t quite as dominant in limiting opponents’ yards this season was that their defense against the run fell way off. They weren’t terrible stopping the run, finishing 18th in the league, although they were tied 28th in yards per attempt. They still finished 3rd in rush TD’s allowed. But last season the Packers were the #1 defense in football against the run. This season it was their only weakness on the defensive side of the ball. Other than that they were a top notch unit, finishing 1st in opponent’s QB rating, 4th in opponent’s completion percentage, and 9th in opponent’s 3rd down conversion percentage.
Teams were able to move the ball better on the ground against the Packers, but Green Bay did a good job of holding teams out of the end zone. They also relied on big plays to end drives and force teams into passing situations. The Packers were 2nd in interceptions and tied for 2nd in sacks. They were tied 12th in fumbles forced (though just tied for 24th in fumbles recovered. There are play makers all over the field on the defensive side for Green Bay. OLB Clay Matthews looked to be headed for the Defensive Player of the Year award at one point in the season, and he finished with 13.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and an INT returned for a touchdown. ILB AJ Hawk led the team in tackles with 111 and he also had 3 interceptions. Fellow ILB Desmond Bishop stepped up when others were hurt and was very good, finishing 2nd on the team with 103 tackles, recording 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 3 interceptions, including 1 returned for a touchdown. BJ Raji was a force at NT, making 6.5 sacks, and DE Cullen Jenkins notched 7 sacks. The secondary withstood injuries to once again be one of the best in the league. CB Charles Woodson was trouble for offenses as always, recording 2 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, and 2 picks, returning 1 INT for a touchdown. Fellow CB Tramon Williams filled in beautifully when others went down and came up with 6 interceptions. FS Nick Collins had 4 picks.
Philadelphia Defense: Earlier I talked about how the Eagles had been built around a great defense and Donovan McNabb during most of Reid’s tenure. What I didn’t say was that as the Eagles began adding offensive weapons and moving away from McNabb, they also changed on defense. It really began when Jim Johnson was forced to leave his defensive coordinator position due to cancer. Philly’s defense finished just 12th in total defense and 19th in scoring defense last season, the first one without Johnson. This year the Eagles again finished 12th in total defense, but they were just tied for 21st in scoring defense, allowing 23.6 points a game. They were tied for 17th on 3rd downs. They are tied 14th against the pass and 15th against the run (tied 13th in yards per carry and tied 16th in rush TD’s allowed). The Eagles were torched by the pass at times this season, finishing tied for 29th in pass TD’s allowed. In other areas they were strong against the pass, finishing 3rd in picks, tied 10th in sacks, 11th in opponent’s passer rating, and 8th in opponent’s completion percentage. The Eagles were fortunate in that they were tied 27th in fumbles forced but tied 13th in fumbles recovered.
DE Trent Cole led the Eagles with 10 sacks, while fellow DE Juqua Parker notched 6 sacks. CB Asante Samuel battled injuries but still managed to intercept 7 passes. Reserve DB Dimitri Patterson came out of nowhere to intercept 4 passes, taking one back for a TD. Starting safeties Quintin Mikell and Nate Allen each had 3 picks, and Mikell returned a fumble for a score.
Green Bay Special Teams: Without question, special teams is the phase of the game that the Packers are weakest at. Green Bay finished tied for 23rd in FG%, as Mason Crosby hit on only 79% of tries. He did manage to hit 10 of 14 from 40+, including 2 of 4 from 50+ yards. The Packers were 29th in touchback percentage on kickoffs and tied 20th in kickoff coverage. Punter Tim Masthay was just about average this season, as the Packers were 16th in the league in both net punting and punts downed inside the 20. The Packers were surprisingly bad in the return game this season, finishing 22nd in punt return average and 26th in kickoff return average.
Philadelphia Special Teams: The Eagles are very strong in special teams. They were 12th in FG%. Veteran kicker David Akers didn’t have his best season but he was solid, hitting on 84% of his FG tries, including 10 of 14 on kicks of 40+ and 1 of 3 on kicks of 50+. The Eagles finished 7th in touchdown percentage on kickoffs behind Akers, and they were also tied 12th in kickoff coverage. Sav Rocca had an excellent season, as the Eagles were tied 7th in net punting and tied 11th in punts downed inside the 20. The Eagles were just 25th in kick return average but they finished 12th in punt return average behind Jackson.
Turnovers, Big Plays, Penalties, and Red Zone
Green Bay: The Packers took good care of the ball this season, turning it over just 20 times (tied 8th), and they forced 30 takeaways (tied 6th) for a +10 turnover differential (tied 5th). Green Bay did a decent job of limiting big plays by opposing defenses and return units, allowing just 1 pick-six and 1 punt return for a TD. Green Bay’s defense took 3 picks and 1 fumble back to the house for scores. Green Bay is one of the most disciplined teams in the league, finishing 3rd in both penalties per game and penalty yards per game. They are also strong in the red zone on both offense and defense (6th in RZ scoring percentage, 12th in opponent’s RZ scoring percentage).
Philadelphia: The Eagles were surprisingly good at taking care of the ball this season, giving it up just 21 times (tied 11th), and they forced 33 turnovers (tied for 3rd) for a +12 turnover differential (4th best). The Eagles did not allow a special teams touchdown but they had 1 INT returned for a TD against them and 2 fumbles returned for scores against them. Jackson’s punt return TD against the Giants was Philly’s only special teams TD of the season. They returned 1 fumble and 1 INT for a touchdown. The Eagles have had major penalty problems this season. They are 30th in penalties per game and 31st in penalty yards per game. While the Eagles finished 14th in RZ scoring percentage, they finished dead last in opponent’s RZ scoring percentage.
Injury News
Green Bay: For the second year in a row the Packers had an IR list that looked more like a roster. It lasted throughout the season. First, starting DE Johnny Jolly was suspended for the entire season due to a failed drug test. In week 1, the Packers lost starting RB Ryan Grant and reserve DE Justin Harrell. In week 4 they lost starting right tackle Mark Tauscher, backup strong safety Morgan Burnett, and starting ILB Nick Barrett for the year. The next week backup free safety Derrick Martin, backup DE Mike Neal, and stud TE Jermichael Finley bit the dust. It continued in week 6 when they lost backup OLB Brady Poppinga for the rest of the season. The next week it was starting OLB Brad Jones who was done for. Backup safety Anthony Smith became unavailable for the remainder of the season in week 11. The next week they lost the services of backup ILB Brandon Chiller and reserve TE Spencer Havner for the rest of the year. Finally in week 16, backup guard Marshall Newhouse was lost for good.
The Packers have a few more injury issues heading into the playoffs. Starting strong safety Atari Bigby missed last week’s game with a groin injury and has been ruled out for Sunday night’s game. Reserve OLB Frank Zombo and backup fullback Korey Hall missed week 17 and they are questionable for the WC round. Starting DE Cullen Jenkins also missed last week’s game but he is listed as probable for the Sunday.
Philadelphia: The Eagles have had their fair share of injury problems this season. Reserve DB Marlin Jackson and reserve DE Victor Abiamiri suffered season ending injuries during the preseason. The Eagles lost backup center Jamaal Jackson, starting FB Leonard Weaver, and reserve DB Antoine Harris for the season in week 1. Starting CB Ellis Hobbs was knocked out for the season in week 8. Backup DE Brandon Graham was lost for the year in week 14, starting FS Nate Allen went out for good in week 15, and reserve DT Jeff Owens was finished in week 16.
Backup guard Max Jean-Giles and starting MLB Stewart Bradley are listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. Bradley has missed the last 3 games. Vick, starting CB Asante Samuel, and backup DT Trevor Laws all missed week 17 but are listed as probable for Sunday. Starting center Nick Cole is also probable.
Series History: Like the Jets and Colts, these two met in a famous playoff game a long time ago. The Packers hold a 25-15 edge in the all-time series, but the Eagles are 2-0 against Green Bay in the playoffs. The Eagles are 11-9 at home against the Packers all-time, including 2-0 in the playoffs. In 1960, the Packers and Eagles met in the NFL Championship Game at Philadelphia. That day, Chuck Bednarik and the Eagles stopped Vince Lombardi’s Packers, 17-13. It was the first NFL Championship Game for Lombardi’s Packers, and the last they would lose (won 5 of the next 7). The next postseason meeting was not until the 2003 Division playoffs, again in Philadelphia. This was the game that Donovan McNabb and the Eagles converted a 4th and 26 on a last minute drive as they tied it up and sent the game into overtime. A horrible INT thrown by Brett Favre in overtime set the Eagles up for the game winning FG, as they won it 20-17.
The last meeting between these two was the opening week of this season. Michael Vick came in for an injured Kevin Kolb but he couldn’t bring the Eagles all the way back, as the Packers hung on for a 27-20 win at Philly (snapped an 11-game losing streak for the Packers in Philadelphia). The Kolb/Vick thing made it strange because you don’t know what the score would have been if Vick had played the entire game.
Kolb was sacked by Clay Matthews on 3rd down in Philly’s first series and apparently got his bell rung. Rodgers fired a pick and Vick started the Eagles’ 2nd series. But then Kolb came back in. He threw a couple of incompletions and Vick came back in for 3rd down. The Eagles settled for a FG to go up 3-0. Green Bay tied it at 3-3 early in the 2nd and Vick and Kolb shared snaps again in the 3rd series. Kolb was intercepted but it was ruled an incompletion after replay. He would play the remainder of the 1st half but was not effective. The Packers scored a TD to go ahead 10-3 and then got a FG at the gun to make it 13-3 at the half.
Michael Vick was in at QB as the 3rd quarter began and he would take every snap the rest of the way. Eldra Buckley fumbled in Green Bay territory on the opening possession of the 3rd quarter and the Packers turned it into 7 points, taking a 20-3 lead. Vick led the Eagles on a TD drive to get back in the game, but the Packers responded immediately with a touchdown to make it 27-10 going to the 4th. The Eagles got in the end zone again to cut it to a 10 point game with 10:23 to play. Rodgers then fired another pick and the Eagles had the ball at midfield. They drove to the 5 but had to settle for a FG that made it a 1 possession game with nearly 6 minutes left on the clock. The Eagles got the ball back with plenty of time and drove into GB territory, but on 4th and 1 from the 42, Vick tried to run up the middle and was stopped for no gain, giving it back to the Pack with only 1:54 left. Rodgers kneeled 3 times to run out the clock and the Packers had a 27-20 win.
Despite the strange QB situation, the Eagles still outgained the Packers in the air and on the ground (320-299 total yards). The Eagles were hurt by 10 penalties for 80 yards, while Green Bay helped Philly by throwing a couple of picks. Rodgers struggled, completing 19 of 31 passes for just 188 yards, 2 TD’s, and 2 INT’s. Vick came on in relief of Kolb and was a force right off the bat. He completed 16 of 24 passes for 175 yards and a TD (no picks) and rushed 11 times for 103 yards. This was a hard hitting game. The Packers had 6 sacks and the Eagles notched
Team Playoff Histories
Green Bay: This is the 2nd straight trip to the playoffs for the Packers and the 3rd in the last 4 years. It is the 26th postseason appearance in franchise history. The Pack are 25-16 all-time in the playoffs (7-12 on the road) and 6-4 in the WC round (1-2 on the road). They have lost their last 4 road playoff games. Green Bay is 17-8 in their opening game of the postseason. The Packers are 3 for 5 going to the playoffs in the Mike McCarthy era. They are 2-1 in the playoffs under McCarthy (0-1 on the road) and 0-1 in the WC round (0-1 on the road). This will be Aaron Rodgers’ 2nd postseason appearance. He lost on the road at Arizona in the WC round last year in his first and only playoff game to this point.
Philadelphia: This will be the 23rd playoff appearance for the Eagles, the 3rd straight and the 9th in the last 11 years. They are 19-19 all-time in the postseason (13-5 at home) and 7-6 in the WC round (5-3 at home). Philly is 15-7 in their opening game of the playoffs. This is the 9th trip to the playoffs for the Eagles in the Andy Reid era (12 years). The Eagles are 10-8 in the playoffs under Reid (7-2 at home) and 4-1 in the WC round (3-0 at home). The Eagles have won their last 3 home playoff games and they have won 4 straight at home in the WC round. One interesting thing about the Eagles in the playoffs under Reid: while they’ve made only 1 Super Bowl in 8 postseason trips, when they lost on the road at Dallas in the WC round last year it was the first time the Eagles had gone 1-and-done in the playoffs under Reid.
Keys to the Game: I think the biggest issue heading into this game is how well Michael Vick will play and whether or not he can still healthy. When Vick was at his high point this season he was staying in the pocket, going from option to option, checking down when necessary, and only taking off and running when it was the best choice. His accuracy and touch were 4 of 5 levels above what they had ever been. He was not making poor decisions and risking picks. Towards the end of the season, Vick began to make mistakes and his accuracy fell off. He looked a bit more jittery in the pocket. He was also getting crushed. Through his first 7 games, Vick threw 11 touchdowns and no picks. In his final 5 games he threw 10 touchdowns and 6 picks (at least 1 INT in 5 straight games). He also lost his first fumble of the season in his last game. Through his first 9 games, Vick completed 63.8% of his passes. In his last 3 games Vick completed 59.6% of his passes. His last game was his worst in every way, but how much of that was the injury he appeared to suffer on the first play of the game? He will be coming into this game on 2 weeks of rest, so perhaps he will be as spry as he was 6 weeks ago. Could it be that teams and coaches just needed to remember Vick’s game and re-learn how to stop him?
I don’t know the answers to these questions. I do think, however, that if Vick plays the way he did when he was at his best this season that the Eagles will win this game. On the other hand, if Vick plays like he did in week 16 against the Vikings I think the Packers will win this game. It’s hard to say who has the edge at QB because we don’t know which Michael Vick we will see. Rodgers is a terrific quarterback but he is still after his first playoff win, while Vick has won a pair of playoff games. Both teams have experience in big games. I don’t think there really is a coaching edge in this game. I’m not a big fan of Andy Reid or Mike McCarthy as in game coaches, and I think they kind of cancel each other out. Playing at home in the playoffs has been a major advantage for the Eagles in the past, particularly in the early rounds, but they were just 4-4 at home this season, and the Packers have already won there this season.
Unless Vick is playing at an unreal level, I think the Packers will be able to hang in there on defense. They have enough talented defenders to stay with the weapons the Eagles come with. On the other side, we know that Green Bay will most likely have to rely almost exclusively on Rodgers and the passing game. If the offensive line can give Rodgers even decent protection I believe they will have success moving the ball and scoring points against the Eagles. Philly definitely has the edge in special teams, and the Packers need to avoid letting DeSean Jackson burn them. I don’t know about this one. Again, if Vick is Supervick the Eagles will take care of business at home. But I have a feeling he’ll be closer to regular Vick. This one could definitely go down to the wire.
Ranking every World Series in MLB history
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Scandals, scapegoats, superstars and, yes, the Yankees. Sam Miller judges
every October since 1903.
3 years ago
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