The College Football Blog: 2010 Betting Lines Season Review

Bowl Season Record

Straight up: 21-14; Vs. Spread: 19-14-2; Moneyline Upsets: 0-3

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 132-59; Vs. Spread: 96-86-9)

Overall (Straight up: 533-185; Vs. Spread: 361-344-13; Moneyline Upsets: 18-31)

Bowl Season Review: Well, now that it’s all over, I’m relieved. Once again I was reminded this year that the bowl season really is a different season all together. More than anything else, the one thing you have to keep in mind is motivation. Even when logic tells you that one team has an enormous upper hand, motivation can be the great equalizer.

After a slow start, I ended up having a decent bowl season. I had my best ever record ATS in the bowl season, going 19-14-2 for a .576 winning percentage (18-15-1, .545 in 2008; 16-18, .471 in 2009). This was also my best year picking winners in the bowl season, as I finished 21-14 for a .600 winning percentage (19-15, .559 in 2008; 18-16, .529 in 2009). I’ve been awful all season picking moneyline upsets, and that continued in the bowl season, as I went 0-3, my worst ever record picking upsets in the bowl season (3-3, .500 in 2008; 4-3, .571 in 2009). But I’ll take the struggles in moneyline upsets if I can do well picking spreads and winners.

I got off to a better start picking winners this bowl season, going 2-1 on opening day, and going 4-2 through the first 6 games. But then I went on a bad run, beginning on Christmas Eve, I lost 4 of 5 games, making my record just 5-6. I went 2-1 the next day to get back to .500, and then split the 4 games on the 30th. About halfway through I had a record of 9-9 straight up. Not very good but not disastrous. The disaster came on New Year’s Eve, as I got shutout, losing all 4 games. From Nebraska’s loss late on the 30th to South Carolina’s loss late on the 31st I lost 5 straight games. Going further back, from Christmas Eve to New Year’s Eve I went just 5-11 picking winners. I was just 9-13 straight up going into New Year’s Day. Obviously I was going to need a big rebound on “Bowl Day,” and I got it, winning the first 4 New Year’s Day games, and going 5-1 on the day. That got my record back to .500 at 14-14 through 28 games. As it turned out, I would not lose again. Beginning with Oklahoma’s win on the 1st, I won by final 8 games. Following the nightmarish 31st, I went 12-1 the rest of the way to finish 21-14 straight up. I guess I was just ready for 2011.

It was ATS that I got off to a truly slow start. After going 3-1-1 ATS through the first 5 games, I lost 3 straight and 7 of 8. From West Virginia’s loss to NC State to Baylor’s loss to Illinois I lost 4 straight. At that point my record was 4-8-1. It wasn’t too big of a hole to dig out of but it did leave me little room for error the rest of the way. Oklahoma State snapped my skid late on the 29th and I went 2-2 on the 30th, bring my record to 7-10-1 about halfway through. While the 31st was a nightmare day for me picking winners, it was actually a rebound day for me ATS, as I won all 4 games. That made my record 11-10-1 heading into New Year’s Day. However, while “Bowl Day” was my big comeback day straight up, it wasn’t such a good day for me ATS. I lost the first 3 games but rallied to win the last 3 and end the day 3-3. I was 14-13-1 ATS through New Year’s Day. As it turned out, the 2nd half of the 1st was the start of my hottest streak. From Mississippi State’s romp of Michigan through Pitt’s win over Kentucky I won 8 in a row, brining my record to 19-13-1 ATS. I went 0-1-1 in the last 2 games to finish 19-14-2 ATS. Still, not bad, especially considering where I was midway through New Year’s Day.

I sucked all season picking moneyline upsets and it was no different in the bowl season. I only picked 3 upsets and none of them came true. 2 of my 3 upsets were among the first 4 games, so I was quickly 0-2. The final failure came in the Rose Bowl, leaving me 0-3 picking upsets this bowl season.

Season Review: Once again I tweaked the way that I pick games and finally it ended with me not embarrassing myself. Back in 2008 I picked 10 games that I felt good about. Last year I picked the 10 most interesting games. This season, I decided that the more games I pick, the more it becomes a coin flip and the better chances I have of going .500. Plus, there are always more than 10 interesting games. So, I picked every game that had a spread each week, as well as singling out the 10 biggest games of each week. Another change was that my moneyline upset picks would be included in the other picks and not set apart (that way I got credit if the underdog covered. Ha ha!).

Since my weekly picks were so different this season, it’s hard to compare against my first two years. This was the first year that I picked all of the games and the first year I picked games straight up. Overall, I went 533-185 straight up (.742) and 361-344-13 ATS (.512). The closest thing to the last two seasons would be my record in the biggest 10 games. I went 132-59 straight up (.691) in the biggest 10 games and 96-89-9 ATS (.519) in the biggest 10 games. In 2008 I was 91-110-2 ATS overall (.453) and last year I was 74-114-5 ATS overall (.394). So obviously this was my best year either way you slice it. Next year will be a better comparison because I’ll do things exactly the same. As for moneyline upsets, I basically had an identical season to last year. Last season I was 18-32 (.360) picking upsets and this year I went 18-31 (.367). I still have no idea how I went 21-22 (.488) picking upsets back in 2008.

I made 16 segments of picks this season. Week 15 is a little strange because there was only 1 game and I went 1-0 straight up and ATS. Other than week 15, my best week straight up was week 1 when I went 33-6 (.846). This makes sense because so many teams schedule cupcakes in week 1, meaning there will be a lot of really big spreads. My worst week straight up was bowl season, as I went 29-14 (.600).

My best week overall ATS (other than week 15) was week 14 (championship week) when I went 14-4-1 ATS (.778). My worst week overall ATS was week 5 when I went just 18-30-1 (.375).

In the biggest 10 games segment my best week straight up (other than week 15) was a tie. In week 1 and week 4 I went 9-1 (.900) straight up in the biggest 10 games. My worst week straight up in the biggest 10 games was also a tie. In week 7 and week 10 I went 5-5 (.500) straight up in the biggest 10 games.

My best week ATS in the biggest 10 games segment (other than week 15) was week 7 when I went 8-2 ATS (.800). My worst week ATS in the biggest 10 games was week 4 when I went 2-8 (.800).

I was not very good picking moneyline upsets this season. My best week was a tie. I went 2-0 picking upsets in week 9 and week 14. My worst week was also a tie. In week 1 and bowl season I went 0-3 picking upsets.

Overall, my best week of the season was probably week 14 (championship week). I went 15-4 straight up and 14-4-1 ATS. In the biggest 15 games I went 12-3 straight up and 11-3-1 ATS. I even went 2-0 picking upsets that week. My worst week overall was probably the previous week (week 13), when I went 34-20 straight up and 24-30 ATS. In the biggest 10 games I went 12-8 straight up and 8-12 ATS. I was just 1-4 picking moneyline upsets that week.