Tuesday, January 11, 2011

The College Football Blog: 2010 Final Power Rankings

Final Power Rankings

1. Auburn 14-0 (1st)
2. Oregon 12-1 (2nd)
3. Ohio State 12-1 (3rd)
4. Stanford 12-1 (6th)
5. Alabama 10-3 (7th)
6. TCU 13-0 (8th)
7. Arkansas 10-3 (4th)
8. Wisconsin 11-2 (5th)
9. LSU 11-2 (9th)
10. Boise State 12-1 (10th)
11. Oklahoma 12-2 (14th)
12. Oklahoma State 11-2 (NR)
13. Mississippi State 9-4 (NR)
14. Texas A&M 9-4 (11th)
15. Michigan State 11-2 (13th)

Out: South Carolina (12th); Nebraska (15th).

Explanation: These are the final power rankings, post-bowl season. It’s always difficult to keep bowl results in proper perspective. And I do think we have to look at the bowl games differently because they are different. The length of time in between games is very different. And the motivation factor is almost always present.

With that said, I feel okay about my final power rankings. Auburn was my #1 team going into the bowls and they finish at top my power rankings. Oregon was my #2 team going into the bowls and I kept them at #2 after their close loss to the Tigers in the national championship game. I also kept Ohio State at #3 after they beat Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl, even though the Buckeyes were not impressive in the 2nd half and should not have won that game. I give them credit for getting it done and hanging on, but Arkansas (and the plays that the Hogs didn’t make) had a lot to do with Ohio State snapping the skid against the SEC in bowl games.

Stanford and Alabama both had very impressive showings in the bowl season and I moved each team up 2 spots in my rankings. Stanford crushed Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl to finish the year 12-1. I moved Stanford up 2 spots in my rankings from 6th to 4th. Bama destroyed Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl to finish 10-3. It looked like Mark Ingram was finally healthy and the Tide looked motivated. I moved Bama up 2 spots in my final rankings from 7th to 5th.

TCU held on to beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, capping off a perfect 13-0 season. I moved the Horned Frogs up 2 spots in my rankings from 8th to 6th. Some might say that I have underrated TCU, but I don’t think it’s at all a stretch to rank them behind Auburn, Oregon, Ohio State, Stanford, and Alabama.

Several teams fell 3 spots in my rankings this week, including Arkansas and Wisconsin. Arkansas did not show up for the first half of the Sugar Bowl against Ohio State and they were plagued by nerves from start to finish. Ryan Mallet choked at the end, proving once again that he is not a winner. The Hogs fell 3 spots in my final rankings from 4th to 7th. Wisconsin’s high powered rushing attack was held in check by TCU in the Rose Bowl and the Badgers made uncharacteristic mistakes. I dropped Wisconsin 3 spots from 5th to 8th in my final rankings.

LSU and Boise State got the job done in their respective bowl games and stayed in place in my rankings. LSU had an impressive victory over a red hot Texas A&M team in the Cotton Bowl to finish the season 11-2. They finished 9th in my power rankings. Boise State got ripped off in the bowl selection process and got stuck playing an overmatched Utah team. There was really no way for them to rise in my power rankings. They won convincingly to finish 12-1 and ended the year 10th in my rankings.

Oklahoma won easily over Connecticut in the Fiesta Bowl to finish the season 12-2. This was actually a big win for the Sooners, who had not had much luck in BCS games recently. The Sooners made the biggest move in my final rankings, climbing 3 spots from 14th to 11th.

Two of the most surprising teams in college football this season jumped into my rankings in the final edition. Oklahoma State whipped Arizona in the Alamo Bowl to finish the year 11-2. The Cowboys ended the season as my #12 team. Mississippi State got into the final rankings with a dominating victory over Michigan in the Gator Bowl. The Maroon Dogs finished the year 9-4 and ranked 13th in my power rankings.

Texas A&M was one of 3 teams to fall 3 spots in my final power rankings. The Aggies were cooled off in the Cotton Bowl by LSU, finishing the season 9-4. They were one of the more surprising teams in college football this season, but they looked overmatched at times against the Bayou Bengals. I moved the Aggies down 3 spots in my final rankings from 11th to 14th
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The final team in the final edition of my power rankings might be the most controversial. Michigan State got absolutely humiliated by Alabama in the Capital One Bowl, losing 49-7. The Spartans wound up 11-2 this season. I expected to move them out of my rankings, but in the end I couldn’t find anyone I liked better to replace them. I wasn’t going to rank Virginia Tech ahead of them, as the Hokies really never beat anyone of note outside of the ACC. VT had proven to be clearly superior to FSU in the ACC Championship Game, and FSU showed themselves to be clearly superior to South Carolina in the Chick-fil-a Bowl. So that basically killed 3 teams that I might have considered. The only other team I considered was Nevada, but their only impressive win was at home over Boise State in overtime. They needed the Broncos to miss a chip shot field goal just to get into overtime and then they got another miss on a chip shot that put them in position to win. Other than that they really didn’t play anyone. I thought Michigan State was the best of these teams, even if they didn’t show it in the bowl game. I moved the Spartans down 2 spots in my final rankings from 13th to 15th.

Two teams fell out of my rankings in the final edition. South Carolina came up small in a big game for the 100th time, losing 26-17 to FSU in the Chick-fil-a Bowl to finish 9-5. Star RB Marcus Lattimore took a shot to the mouf early in the 1st quarter and was knocked out for the game. Once again, without Lattimore the Cocks looked completely lost. South Carolina had been #12 but they fell all the way out of my rankings after this latest loss. Nebraska was #15 heading into the bowls, but the Cornhuskers came up with the most uninspiring effort of the entire bowl season, losing 19-7 to Washington in the Holiday Bowl. They had already beaten the Huskies, 56-21, on the road this season, and they did not look very interested this time. You do have to feel bad for a team like the Corn Huskers losing by 3 in the Big XII Championship Game, and ending up playing a 6-6 team in the Holiday Bowl that they had already crushed. But great teams have enough pride to get it done again, and the embarrassing performance by Nebraska was basically typical of a team that is tired of hearing their coach. The Cornhuskers fell from #15 to out of my final rankings.

Power Rankings Season Notes: There were 17 sets of power rankings this year (The preseason power rankings, 15 weeks of power rankings during the regular season, and the final power rankings) with each edition ranking the top 15 teams. 16 of the 17 sets of power rankings were unique (only weeks 14 and 15 were exactly the same, as only the Army-Navy game took place that week). 26 different teams were ranked in my top 15 at least once. There were 5 weeks in which all of the teams from the previous week’s rankings remained in the top 15 (week 1, 3, 12, 14, and 15). There were 8 weeks when only 1 team fell out of the top 15 (week 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 13). There were 2 weeks when 2 teams fell out of the top 15 (week 5 and the final rankings). The most chaotic week was week 2 when 4 teams fell out of the top 15. 7 of the 15 teams in my preseason top 15 were ranked in my final to 15. In other words, there were 8 teams in my final top 15 who were not in my preseason top 15. (I did have Auburn and Arkansas listed among 6 teams “also considered” for my preseason rankings).

5 teams made it into all 17 sets of power rankings, from preseason through the final rankings (Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State, TCU, and Oregon). Nebraska made it into 16 of 17 sets. 3 teams were ranked in 15 of 17 sets (Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Auburn). 3 teams were in 14 of 17 sets of power rankings (Oklahoma, South Carolina, and LSU). There were 2 teams that made it into 12 of 17 sets (Stanford and Michigan State) and Iowa was ranked in 11 of 17 sets. In total, 15 teams were ranked in at least 11 of the 17 sets. No other team was ranked in more than 7 of the 17 sets. Florida was ranked in 7 of 17 sets; Texas A&M was ranked in 6 of 17 sets; Texas and Oklahoma State were each ranked in 4 of 17 sets; UNC, UGA, Virginia Tech, and Miami were each ranked in 2 of the 17 sets; and Arizona, Missouri, and Mississippi State each made it into 1 of my 17 sets of power rankings this season.

3 different teams were ranked #1 in my rankings this season. Oregon spent the most weeks in 1st place (8 weeks) and the most consecutive weeks at #1 (8 weeks). Alabama was #1 for the first 6 sets of rankings and Auburn was #1 in the final 3 sets of rankings. 4 different teams held the #2 spot at one point (Most weeks: Ohio State, 9) and 6 different teams were #3 at some point (Ohio State, 6). 9 teams were ranked 4th at some point (Florida and Arkansas, 3); 8 teams were ranked 5th at some point (Boise State, Oregon, Alabama, Wisconsin, 3); 6 teams were ranked 6th at some point (TCU, 6); 9 teams were ranked 7th at some point (TCU, 4); 8 teams were ranked 8th at some point (Wisconsin, 4); 8 teams were ranked 9th at some points (Arkansas and LSU, 4); 8 teams were ranked 10th at some point (Boise State, 4); 8 teams were ranked 11th at some point (Nebraska, 4); and 9 teams were ranked 12th at some point (South Carolina, Stanford, Nebraska, 3). For the second year in a row, the most varied spot was #13. 12 different teams held the #13 spot at some point (Most: Michigan State, 4 weeks). 9 teams were ranked 14th at some point (LSU, 4) and 11 teams were ranked 15th at some point (Wisconsin and Nebraska, 3).

Here’s a rundown of the 26 teams that made it into my power rankings during 2010, listed by number of weeks ranked:

Alabama: The Tide were ranked in 17 of 17 sets of power rankings: 7th (3 weeks), 6th (1), 5th (3), 3rd (1), 2nd (3), 1st (6). Alabama debuted in the preseason rankings at #1 and they would hold that spot through week 5. They fell out of the top spot in week 6 and never made it back to 1st. They never fell below 7th and they finished at #5 in the final rankings. Bama spent 9 weeks ranked in the top 2 and 10 weeks ranked in the top 3. They were ranked in the top 5 in 13 of 17 sets.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes were ranked in 17 of 17 sets: 4th (2), 3rd (6), 2nd (9). They debuted in the preseason rankings at #4. They reached the #2 spot in week 1 and held it through week 4. They fell out of that spot in week 5, regained it in week 6, and fell out again in week 7. The regained the #2 spot in week 7 and held it through week 13. They finished #3 in the final rankings. Ohio State was ranked in the top 2 in 9 of 17 sets and in the top 3 in 15 of 17 sets.

Boise State: The Broncos were ranked in 17 of 17 sets: 10th (4), 7th (3), 6th (5), 5th (3), 4th (2). They debuted in the preseason rankings at #5 and finished at #10 in the final rankings. Their highest ranking was 4th and their lowest was 10th. They were ranked in the top 5 in 5 of 17 sets and in the top 10 in all 17 sets.

TCU: The Horned Frogs were ranked in 17 of 17 sets: 8th (3), 7th (4), 6th (6), 5th (2), 4th (1), 3rd (1). They debuted in the preseason rankings at #6 and finished ranked 6th in the final rankings. Their highest ranking was #3 and their lowest was #8. They were ranked in the top 5 in 4 of 17 sets and in the top 10 in all 17 sets.

Oregon: The Ducks were ranked in 17 of 17 sets: 9th (1), 8th (1), 5th (3), 2nd (4), 1st (8). The Ducks debuted in the preseason rankings at #9 (lowest spot) and finished ranked 2nd in the final rankings. They held the #1 spot for 8 straight weeks from week 6 through week 13. They were ranked in the top 2 in 12 of 17 sets, in the top 5 in 15 of 17 sets, and in the top 10 in all 17 sets.

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers were ranked in 16 of 17 sets: 15th (3), 12th (3), 11th (4), 10th (1), 9th (1), 8th (3), 7th (1). They debuted in the preseason rankings at #11 and stayed in the top 15 through week 15 before falling out in the final rankings. Their high ranking was 7th. They were in the top in 6 of 17 sets of rankings.

Wisconsin: The Badgers were ranked in 15 of 17 sets: 15th (3), 14th (1), 13th (1), 11th (2), 8th (4), 7th (1), 5th (3). They debuted in the preseason rankings at #15 and stayed in the top 15 through week 4. They fell out in week 5 but jumped back in the rankings in week 7 and stayed in the top 15 the rest of the way, finishing at #8 in the final rankings. Their highest ranking was 5th. They were in the top 5 in 3 of the 17 sets and in the top 10 in 8 of the 17 sets.

Arkansas: The Hogs were ranked in 15 of 17 sets: 13th (1), 12th (2), 11th (2), 10th (2), 9th (4), 7th (1), 4th (3). The Hogs debuted in the rankings in week 2 at #12 and they remained in the rankings the rest of the way, finishing #7 in the final rankings. Their highest ranking was #4. They were in the top 5 in 3 of the 17 sets and in the top 10 in 10 of the 17 sets.

Auburn: The Tigers were ranked in 15 of 17 sets: 14th (1), 13th (1), 10th (2), 8th (1), 7th (1), 6th (1), 5th (1), 4th (1), 3rd (3), 1st (3). Auburn debuted in the rankings in week 2 at #14 and they remained in the rankings the rest of the way, finishing #1 in the final rankings. They held the #1 spot over the final 3 weeks. The Tigers were ranked in the top 3 in 6 of 17 sets, in the top 5 in 8 of the 17 sets, and in the top 10 in 13 of the 17 sets.

Oklahoma: The Sooners were ranked in 14 of 17 sets: 15th (1), 14th (2), 12th (1), 11th (1), 8th (1), 6th (1), 4th (2), 3rd (5). The Sooners debuted in the preseason rankings at #3 (highest) and they stayed in the top 15 through week 9. They fell out in week 10 and stayed out for 3 weeks. They returned to the rankings in week 13 and remained in the top 15 the rest of the way, finishing 12th in the final rankings. The Sooners were ranked in the top 5 in 7 of 17 sets and in the top 10 in 7 of the 17 sets.

South Carolina: The Gamecocks were ranked in 14 of 17 sets: 15th (1), 14th (1), 13th (2), 12th (3), 11th (3), 10th (2), 9th (2). They debuted at #13 in week 2 and remained in the top 15 through week 15 before falling out in the final rankings. Their highest ranking was #9. They were in the top 10 in 4 of the 17 sets of rankings.

LSU: The Tigers were ranked in 14 of 17 sets: 15th (2), 14th (4), 13th (1), 9th (4), 5th (1), 4th (2). The Tigers debuted at #15 in week 2 and they stayed in the rankings for the next 3 weeks before falling out in week 5. They jumped back in the rankings in week 6 and remained in the top 15 the rest of the way, finishing 9th in the final rankings. LSU’s highest ranking was #4. The Tigers were ranked in the top 5 in 3 of 17 sets and in the top 10 in 7 of 17 sets.

Stanford: The Indians were ranked in 12 of 17 sets: 15th (1), 13th (1), 12th (3), 10th (3), 6th (3), 4th (1). Stanford debuted at #12 in week 4 and they stayed in the top 15 for 4 weeks before falling out again in week 8. The Indians got back into the rankings in week 9 and remained in the top 15 the rest of the way, finishing 4th in the final rankings (season high). Stanford was ranked in the top 10 in 7 of 17 sets.

Michigan State: The Spartans were ranked in 12 of 17 sets: 15th (2), 14th (3), 13th (4), 12th (1), 9th (1), 7th (1). The Spartans debuted in week 5 at #14 and they remained in the top 15 the rest of the way, finishing 15th in the final rankings. Michigan State’s highest ranking was 7th. They were ranked in the top 10 in 2 of the 17 sets.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes were ranked in 11 of 17 sets: 15th (1), 12th (1), 11th (2), 10th (1), 9th (3), 8th (3). Iowa debuted in the preseason rankings at #8. They stayed in the rankings through week 10 before falling out in week 11. They would never get back into the top 15. The Hawkeyes highest ranking was 8th. They were in the top 10 in 7 of 17 sets.

Florida: The Gators were ranked in 7 of 17 sets: 15th (1), 5th (1), 4th (3), 3rd (1), 2nd (1). Florida debuted at #2 (highest ranking) in the preseason rankings and they remained in the top 15 through week 6. They fell out of the rankings in week 7 and never got back into the top 15. The Gators were ranked in the top 5 in 6 of 17 sets.

Texas A&M: The Aggies were ranked in 6 of 17 sets: 15th (1), 14th (2), 13th (1), 11th (2). The Aggies debuted at #15 in week 11 and they stayed in the rankings the rest of the way, finishing 14th in the final rankings. Texas A&M’s highest ranking was 11th.

Texas: The Longhorns were ranked in 4 of 17 sets: 9th (1), 8th (1), 7th (2). Texas debuted in the preseason rankings at #7 (highest). They stayed in the rankings through week 3 before falling out in week 4. They would not return to the top 15. The Longhorns were in the top 10 in 4 of 17 sets.

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys were ranked in 4 of 17 sets: 14th (1), 13th (1), 12th (1), 11th (1). Okie State debuted in the rankings at #14 in week 10. They stayed in the rankings for 3 weeks before falling out in week 13. They would get back in the top 15 in the final rankings at #12. Their highest ranking was 11th.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels were ranked in 2 of 17 sets: 10th (2). They debuted at #10 (highest) in the preseason rankings and lasted 2 weeks before falling out for good in week 2.

Georgia: The Bulldogs were ranked in 2 of 17 sets: 12th (2). The Dawgs debuted in the preseason rankings at #12 and they lasted 2 weeks before falling out for good in week 2.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies were ranked in 2 of 17 sets: 13 (2). The Hokies debuted in the preseason rankings at #13 and they lasted 2 weeks before falling out for good in week 2.

Miami: The Hurricanes were ranked in 2 of 17 sets: 14 (2). The Canes debuted in the preseason rankings at #14 and they lasted for 2 weeks before falling out for good in week 2.

Arizona: The Wildcats were ranked in 1 of 17 sets: Arizona debuted at #15 in week 5 and that was their only appearance in the top 15 this season, as they fell out for good the next week.

Missouri: The Tigers were ranked in 1 of 17 sets: 13th (1). Mizzu debuted at #13 in week 8 and that was their only appearance in the top 15 this season, as they fell out for good the next week.

Mississippi State: The Maroon Dogs were ranked in 1 of 17 sets: 13th (1). The Bulldogs debuted in the final rankings at #13.

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