Last Week: Vs. Spread (3-1); Straight Up: (3-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (128-126-6); Straight Up: (160-100)
Wild Card Round Review: I’m glad I went with my gut. The games were fairly interesting as well, with 3 of the 4 games going down to the final minutes. And of course there was the one major upset.
Divisional Round: This looks like a tough round to pick but it should be a very interesting weekend, with a pair of interdivision matchups in the AFC, and the Falcons-Green Bay matchup that looks almost like a tossup in the NFC. Plus, everybody wants to know what the Seahawks can do. Remember, sometimes the best games come in the Divisional Round. In my opinion, this is one of the best weekends of the sports calendar and the best weekend of the NFL season. It’s better than Wild Card weekend because the top seeds are involved. It’s better than Championship Sunday because it takes place not only on Sunday but also on Saturday.
The comments are going to be a little bit different this week than last week. This primarily because 4 of the teams have already played, while 4 teams are making their first appearance in the postseason, so I can’t just matchup each section exactly as I did last week. The 4 teams that played last week will not be covered as thoroughly in this edition, since I already covered them in depth last week. So, for further info on the 4 Wild Card Round survivors, see last week’s Wild Card Round Betting Lines entry.
For this week, instead of relisting the stats and rankings for the teams who played last week I will go over their first round game. Just a head’s up: the review of the Seattle game is rather lengthy, as it was one of the best playoff games in recent years, and therefore requires extra attention.
Saturday’s Late Day Game
Baltimore (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Ravens beat the spread
Comment: It seems like these teams play 3 times every year. It never gets old. And we know exactly what we’re going to get: a rough, old fashioned, hard hitting, intense, low scoring battle that will likely go down to the wire. These games are a pleasure to watch for old school fans. The only problem nowadays is that you know there’s always a chance that somebody gets seriously injured.
Playoff Position
Baltimore: The Ravens still had a chance at the AFC North title going into week 17, and they managed to hold off the Bengals, 13-7 at home, to finish tied for 1st in the division with the Steelers at 12-4. However, they lost the tiebreaker, and thus had to settle for a wild card bid and the #5 seed. That sent them to Kansas City to play the #4 seed Chiefs on the road in the WC round. Baltimore whipped the Chiefs, 30-7, to advance. With the #6 Jets also winning, the Ravens got a ticket to Pittsburgh to meet the #2 Steelers.
Pittsburgh: The Steelers needed a win in week 17 to clinch the AFC North title and the #2 seed. They obliterated the Browns in Cleveland, 41-9, to finish 12-4, tied with the Ravens atop the division. They won the tie-breaker and the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs.
Records and Trends
Baltimore: The Ravens are now 13-4 overall (9-7-1 ATS) and 6-3 on the road (6-2-1 ATS). They have a +6.5 average scoring differential. The Ravens have won 5 straight and 7 of 8. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. They have won 4 straight on the road (4-0 ATS).
Pittsburgh: The Steelers ended the season 12-4 overall (10-6 ATS) and 5-3 at home (5-3 ATS). They have a +8.9 average scoring differential (3rd best during the regular season). Pittsburgh has won 6 of their last 7. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. The Steelers are 3-1 in their last 4 at home (3-1 ATS).
Baltimore’s Wild Card Round Game
The Ravens were on the road in the first round, but they were favored over the AFC West champion Chiefs, who were in the playoffs for the first time in the Cassel-Haley era. A few mistakes and one big play by KC made it interesting early, but the experienced Ravens were in control for most of the game. They pulled away in the 2nd half and went on to win easily, 30-7.
Baltimore allowed the Chiefs to stay in the game early. The Ravens took the opening kickoff and marched right down the field, but they got stuffed on a run on 2nd and goal from the 1 and then threw incomplete on 3rd down. They settled for a chip shot field goal to go up 3-0, but it was the sort of confused, “not really as physical and hardnosed a team as you’re supposed to be” action by the offense that has been a problem at times. The Chiefs went 3-and-out on their first possession and the Ravens drove back into KC territory. But then Tamba Hali rocked Flacco, forcing a fumble, and recovering it at the Baltimore 46. Two plays later, Jamaal Charles busted up the middle all alone and took it 41 yards for the score to make it 7-3 KC. This was exactly how the Chiefs could win this game. Baltimore not capitalizing, sack/turnover, Charles big run for TD.
Following the TD, Baltimore again moved into KC territory but they were stopped on 3rd down and punted early in the 2nd quarter. Now the Chiefs moved it across the 50, but big Terrance Cody squashed Charles from behind, forcing a fumble, and the Ravens recovered. Baltimore couldn’t move it, punting on 4th and 4 from KC’s 49. The Chiefs then moved to the Baltimore 48 before punting on 4th and 4. It looked like we were settling in for a low-scoring, special teams/defense game.
Another sack looked to have killed another Baltimore possession, but then on 3rd and 13 from the Ravens 32, they finally found something. Flacco hit Todd Heap for 13 yards and a 1st down. That sparked Baltimore on an 80-yard drive, with Flacco and Heap hooking up 3 times for 46 yards along the way (Flacco also ran 3 times for 24 yards on the drive). On 3rd and 2 from the 9, Ray Rice caught a short pass from Flacco and scored to give the Ravens a 10-7 lead going to the half.
On the opening drive of the 3rd quarter, the Chiefs imploded, got a reprieve, and then imploded again. On 3rd and 11 from the KC 19, Cassel was picked off by Haruki Nakamura at the 35. Nakamura got a little excited, and while trying to lateral the ball to Ed Reed, he lost control and fumbled it right back to the Chiefs. Not only did they avoid giving it up on their own 35; not only did they retain possession; they got a 1st down and picked up 13 yards out of it. The Chiefs then moved it down inside the Baltimore 40, but on 3rd and 2 from the 34, Thomas Jones was stopped on a run up the middle, setting up 4th and 1 from the 33. Rather than have Ryan Succup try a 50-yarder to tie the game, the Chiefs elected to go for it, handing it off to Jamaal Charles around right end. The play was destroyed, resulting in a 4-yard loss.
Baltimore took it deep into KC territory on the ensuing possession (with help from a personal foul penalty on Hali), but again they stalled in the red zone and had to settle for a chip shot field goal, making it 13-7, but obviously keeping the Chiefs very much in the game. I mean, you always have to say that a team is very much in the game if they are 1 play away from taking the lead. But on the following Kansas City possession it became clear that the Chiefs were not in the game. Baltimore’s defense chased Cassel on 1st down and forced him to ground the ball, setting up 2nd and 20 from KC’s 13. Then Terrell Suggs sacked him for a 5 yard loss. On 3rd and 25 from their own 8, the Chiefs decided to try and pass instead of running straight ahead and punting, and it did not payoff. Ray Lewis jarred the ball loose from Dexter McCluster and the Ravens recovered at the 17. Again the Ravens couldn’t jam it in down near the goal line (and really didn’t try), settling for another short field goal to make it 16-7, but it was now obvious that they didn’t need to do anything other than that.
On the 2nd play of the next KC possession, Cassel was picked off at the 30. This time the Ravens cashed in, as crowd lost hope and the defense lost energy. Flacco threw a 5-yard TD to Anquan Boldin to make it 23-7 with seconds remaining in the 3rd, essentially ending the competitive portion of the ball game. The Ravens were still trying, and Flacco appeared to have turned it over again on a sack/fumble on the first play of the ensuing KC drive (following a return by McCluster back to the 46), but the play was overturned and ruled incomplete. Baltimore had to settle for a 3-and-out. The Ravens got it back and went on a long, time consuming, soul crushing drive to finish it off. They got out of a 2nd and 19 from the 11 but looked to have stalled at midfield, punting on 4th and 3 from the 50. KC jumped offsides, however, and the drive continued. On 4th and 1 from the 25, Willis McGahee busted through and took it to the end zone to give KC’s face a final stomp. 15 plays, 76 yards, 10:20 elapsed, score now 30-7 with less than 5 minutes to go. Just for fun, the Ravens sacked Cassel twice more and then intercepted him on what was (mercifully) KC’s last possession of the game. It was immediately obvious that Cassel had thrown that final pick so that the Ravens could get Jalen Parmele a few carries. Final score was 30-7.
Because of Baltimore’s failure to convert in the red zone (only 2 TD in 5 tries), plus the fumbled pick, the Ravens were not able to put up a score that truly reflected the play of the game. This was a total asskicking. The Ravens ran 78 plays to KC’s 40. They out-gained the Chiefs 390-161 and had a 26-8 edge in 1st downs (got 3 1st downs on penalties). The Chiefs had twice as many yards in penalties (40 to 20). The Ravens were 9 for 17 on 3rd and 1 for on 4th down, while the Chiefs were 1 for 8 on 3rd down and 0 for 2 on 4th down. They out-passed the Chiefs 248-53 and out-rushed them 142-108. They had a 5-2 edge in the turnover department and a 41:45 to 18:15 advantage in time of possession. They did lose the sack battle, 4-3.
Flacco played pretty well, completing 25 of 34 for 265 yards, 2 TD, and no picks (he also made some good runs). Rice ran 17 times for 57 yards and caught 5 passes for 42 yards and a TD. McGahee ran 10 times for 44 yards and a TD. Heap was huge, catching 10 passes for 108 yards and a TD. Boldin also made 5 catches for 64 yards. Billy Cundiff was 3 for 3 on field goal tries, and Sam Koch put both of his punts inside the 20. On the other side, Cassel was just 9 of 18 for 70 yards, 0 TD, and 3 picks (20.4 passer rating). Charles ran 9 times for 82 yards and a TD but also lost a fumble.
Team Stats and Rankings
Baltimore: For Ravens Offense, Defense, and Special Teams stats and rankings see last week’s Wild Card Round Betting Lines entry.
Pittsburgh Offense: Despite giving away Santonio Holmes over the offseason, missing Ben Roethlisberger for the first 4 games, and suffering major losses on the offensive line during the year, the Steelers were a solid offensive team again this season. Pittsburgh averaged 23.4 points a game this season, 12th best in the NFL, while finishing 14th in total offense. Even with Big Ben missing a quarter of the season, the Steelers were 14th in passing yards (21st in pass TD’s and tied 4th in INT thrown). Roethlisberger returned after his suspension to throw for 3200 yards, completing 61.7% of his passes, firing 17 TD’s and only 5 picks, and posting a 97.0 rating.
Being without their QB early in the season may actually have helped in the end, as Pittsburgh went back to their roots this season, finishing 11th in rushing yards (tied 17th in yards per carry and 8th in rush TD’s) after dropping to 18th in rushing last season. Reshard Mendenhall ran for 1273 yards and 13 TD’s, averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
The Steelers have had offensive line problems for years now, and protection was again a weakness this season, as they finished 25th in sacks allowed. Still, the Steelers were 5th in passer rating and 11th in completion percentage. Despite all of the sacks, they were tied 9th in fumbles lost. Pittsburgh did a good job taking care of the ball and extending drives, finishing 6th in 3rd down conversion percentage and 5th in time of possession.
One thing to remember about Pittsburgh offensively is that despite their reputation as a physical unit with a smash mouth running game, for a variety of reasons, the Steelers actually get a lot of explosive plays. For one thing, they have speed, with athletic receivers Mike Wallace, Antwan Randle El, and Emmanuel Sanders. Also, Big Ben’s style of keeping plays alive and moving up and around the pocket lead to big pass plays. The Steelers were tied for 2nd in passing plays of 20+ yards and tied 4th in rushing plays of 20+ yards. Wallace led the team with 60 catches for 1257 yards and 10 TD’s, averaging 21.0 yards per catch. The always dependable Hines Ward caught 59 passes for 755 yards and 5 TD’s. TE Heath Miller made 42 catches for 512 yards and 2 TD’s.
Pittsburgh Defense: As we all know, the backbone of the Pittsburgh Steelers is now, has always been, and will likely always be their defense. They were the #1 scoring defense in the NFL this season, allowing just 14.5 points a game, and finished 2nd in total defense. The Steelers defense is perhaps the toughest against the run in the league. They were 1st in rush yards allowed, 1st in yards per carry allowed, and tied for 1st in rush TD’s allowed. Not that the Steelers are an easy team to pass against. They were 12th in passing yards allowed, 3rd in pass TD’s allowed, 16th in opponent’s completion percentage, and 2nd in opponent’s passer rating. Dick LeBeau’s defenses are always big play machines, and this year was no exception, as the Steelers led the NFL in sacks, finished tied for 5th in INT’s, 3rd in fumbles forced, and tied 5th in fumbles recovered. But of course, the Steelers do not rely solely on the big sack or the big turnover. They are just tough. Pittsburgh’s defense was 3rd in the NFL this season on 3rd downs.
The Pittsburgh defense is built around their offensive linebackers, and James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley caused plenty of trouble for offenses this season. Harrison recorded 10.5 sacks, 2 INT, and 6 forced fumbles, while Woodley made 10 sacks, 2 INT (1 returned for a TD), and 3 forced fumbles. Brett Keisel also had 3 sacks, 1 INT returned for a TD, and 2 forced fumbles. The difference maker for the Steelers is safety Troy Polamalu. He is the guy that takes the Steelers from being a good defense to being a great defense. This season Polamalu recorded a sack, 5 tackles for loss, 7 INT (1 returned for a TD), and a forced fumble.
Pittsburgh Special Teams: Special teams is not a strength for Pittsburgh. That’s probably putting it lightly. The Steelers switched kickers during the season this year, doing away with veteran Jeff Reed, and turning the placekicking duties over to Shaun Suisham. In the end, the Steelers were 25th in FG%, hitting on 78% of their tries, including just 10 of 17 from 40+ and 2 of 4 from 50+ yards. They are just 25th in touchback percentage on kickoffs. The Steelers also used 3 punters this season (4 if you include Big Ben and his pooch punts) and ended up tied 17th in net punt average and tied 23rd in punts inside the 20. Jeremy Kapinos will punt in the playoffs. The Steelers have been strong on kickoff coverage, finishing 5th in that category this season. They are also solid on kickoff returns, finishing 13th in that area, with Sanders taking the majority of the returns. However, Sanders does not return punts, and the Steelers are woeful in that category (tied 31st).
Turnovers, Big Plays, Penalties, and Red Zone
Baltimore: See last week’s WC Round entry.
Pittsburgh: When their game changers are healthy, the Steelers defense is one of the most capable in the league at creating big plays. This season they returned 3 INT’s for touchdowns. Antonio Brown also returned a kickoff for a touchdown. On the other end, the Steelers allowed a kickoff return for a TD and threw a pick-six. They also allowed a safety. The Steelers are both strong at causing turnovers and solid at preventing them. They gave the ball away 18 times this season (tied 5th) and forced 32 takeaways (5th) for a +14 turnover differential (2nd best in the NFL). As you would expect, the Steelers are not an easy team to score on in the red zone. They were 2nd best in the league in opponent’s red zone scoring percentage. On the other side, the Steelers were just 23rd in red zone offense. With their reputation for inflicting pain (as well as their susceptibility to holding on the offensive line), the Steelers do get penalized quite a bit. They were tied 20th in penalties per game and 25th in penalty yards per game.
Injury News
Baltimore: The big news in the Ravens camp continues to be the awful story concerning Ed Reed. Actually, because details last weekend were still sketchy, because this week started with the National Championship Game, and because all 4 matchups this weekend are very intriguing (but mostly because the Jets’ mouths seem to be the media’s hottest story), it has received surprisingly little coverage and attention by the media. Reed’s younger brother jumped into the Mississippi River last Friday in an attempt to evade the po-lease. He was not seen again. Boots and a jacket belonging to the man were later found and it appears that he drowned, though he has not yet been confirmed deceased. Reed played last Sunday against the Chiefs, went to Louisiana to be with family early this week, and returned to the team on Tuesday. He will play again on Saturday.
As for this week’s injury report, WR/KR David Reed—who missed last week’s game with a wrist injury—is questionable. Reserve TE Dennis Pitta has missed the last 2 games in is also questionable. Starting CB Chris Carr is also listed as questionable. Backup safety Tom Zbikowski and backup LB Tavares Gooden have been out for a few games but are both listed as probable. Starting center Matt Birk is also probable.
One final and potential large note: late Friday night it was reported that Ray Rice had begun feeling sick early that day and by the evening he throwing up in his hotel room. Now, how in the world a member of the media discovered this sort of thing is beyond me. For the integrity of the game, let’s hope he doesn’t have food poisoning.
Pittsburgh: The Steelers did not have a good offseason. The arrest/suspension/trade of Santonio Holmes and the allegations/suspension of Ben Roethlisberger were the lowlights, but they also lost starting tackle Willie Colon and WR Limas Sweed for the entire upcoming season. Two weeks into Roethlisberger’s 4-game suspension, backup QB Dennis Dixon went down for the year. Halfway through the year the Steelers lost their other starting tackle, Max Starks. 3 quarters of the way through the season they lost their punter, Daniel Sepulveda.
Starting DE Aaron Smith went down with an arm injury in week 6. It’s been a frustratingly slow recovery, as Smith’s return has been anticipated for over a month but he has yet to play. He is doubtful for this Saturday. Backup LB Jason Worilds and backup DT Steve McLendon have been out for several weeks but are listed as questionable. Starting CB Bryant McFadden and starting guard Maurkice Pouncey are probable. Backup RB Mewelde Moore missed week 17 but is also listed as probable for this week’s game. Star safety Troy Polamalu has been dealing with an ankle/Achilles injury but is all systems go for the big game with Baltimore.
Regular Season Meeting: In week 4, the Ravens went to Pittsburgh and knocked off the Steelers, 17-14. Pittsburgh was playing without Big Ben for the 4th and final time and this was their first loss of the season. Baltimore had a 22-14 edge in 1st downs and out-gained Pittsburgh 320-210. The Steelers led 7-0 after the 1st quarter but the Ravens took a 10-7 lead into halftime. The score remained 10-7, Baltimore, into the 4th quarter. The Steelers went on a surprising 93-yard TD drive to retake the lead, 14-10, midway through the 4th quarter. Baltimore was stopped on 4th and goal at the 2, but they forced a 3-and-out, and a short punt gave them the ball at the Pittsburgh 40 with 55 seconds left. Flacco threw an 18-yard TD to TJ Houshmandzadeh to put the Ravens ahead, 17-14, with 38 seconds to play. Charlie Batch threw a pick on the first play of the ensuing Pittsburgh drive, and Baltimore took a knee to finish the win.
On Sunday night in week 13, the Steelers went to Baltimore, this time with their quarterback. Big Ben and the Steelers stole the game, 13-10, to even the season series. They had a 17-14 edge in 1st downs and out-gained the Ravens 288-269. In a typically low scoring game, the Ravens led 7-0 at the half and 10-3 heading to the 4th. Baltimore led all night and it looked like they would be able to hang on. But then on 2nd and 5 from their own 43 late in the 4th, the Ravens lost track of Troy Polamalu and they would pay for it. The Steeler safety blindsided Flacco, jarring the ball free, and LaMarr Woodley picked up the fumble and returned it to the 9. On 3rd and goal, Roethlisberger threw to Ike Redman for a 9-yard TD, putting the Steelers ahead 13-10. Baltimore had time to tie the game or win it, but their ensuing drive bogged down once they crossed midfield. On 4th and 2 from the Pittsburgh 31, Flacco fired incomplete and the Steelers took a knee to kill the clock and win it 13-10.
Series History: Technically these two have only been squaring off since 1996, but you do have to keep the idea that that the Ravens were the Browns in 1995 somewhere in the back of your mind. Anyway, in a relatively short amount of time this series has turned into quite a rivalry. The Steelers hold a 20-12 edge in the all-time series, including a 2-0 edge in the playoffs. Pittsburgh won 12 of the first 16 meetings, but the two have split the last 16 meetings 8-8. The Steelers have won 6 of the last 9, including a 3-game sweep in 2008. They have split the season series in each of the last 2 seasons. Baltimore won in Pittsburgh earlier this season, but the Steelers have still won 9 of the last 11 at home against the Ravens.
This will be the 8th meeting between the Ravens and Steelers in the last 3 years. Every one of them has been an old school struggle. Both teams are built around toughness, intensity, hard hitting, hard running, and big play defenses. These games are physical battles. Whoever wins this week will be at a disadvantage in the AFC Championship Game because of the beating they take in this game.
This has been one of the closest and most competitive rivalries in the league in recent years. The last 8 games in this series have been decided by 9 points or less. 7 of the last 8 have been decided by 6 points or less. 6 of the last 7 have been decided by 4 points or less. 5 of the last 7 have been decided by 3 points, including the last 4 in a row.
This will be the 3rd meeting between Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the playoffs (all games at Pittsburgh). The first playoff meeting was in the 2001 divisional round. The Steelers were in the playoffs for the first time since 1997, while the Ravens were defending Super Bowl champions. The Steelers won at home, 27-10, dealing Baltimore their first ever playoff loss (had been 5-0). The other postseason meeting was just a couple of years ago. In the 2008 AFC Championship Game, the Steelers defeated the Ravens for the 3rd time on the year, winning 23-14 at home on their way to a 6th Super Bowl championship.
Team Playoff Histories
Baltimore: This is the 7th trip to the playoffs for the Ravens (all since 2000). They are now 9-5 in the playoffs following their win over the Chiefs last week. They are an impressive 7-3 on the road in the playoffs. The Ravens have a 2-3 record in the divisional round and a 2-2 record on the road in the divisional round. The Ravens are 3 for 3 making the playoffs in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era. They are now 4-2 in the playoffs with Harbaugh/Flacco, all games on the road. The Harbaugh/Flacco Ravens are 1-1 in the divisional round (1-1 on the road).
Pittsburgh: This is the 26th playoff appearance for the Steelers (25th since 1972, 7th in the last 10 years). They have a 31-19 record all-time in the playoffs. The Steelers are 18-9 at home in the playoffs. They are 13-7 in the divisional round and 11-2 at home in the divisional round. Pittsburgh has a 17-8 record in their opening game of the postseason. They have won their last 3 playoff games and 7 of their last 8. This is the 3rd trip to the playoffs in 4 years under Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are 3-1 in playoff games under Tomlin (2-1 at home) and 1-0 in the divisional round (1-0 at home). This is the 5th trip to the playoffs for Big Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has an 8-2 record in playoff games (3-2 at home) and a 3-0 record in the divisional round (2-0 at home). Hines Ward is in the playoffs for a 7th time. He has gone 10-4 in playoff games.
Keys to the Game: It seems a bit silly to write about the keys to this game. We all know what it’s going to be like. It’s going to be low scoring, hard hitting, and close late in the game. Both offenses should struggle. I know the Ravens won at Pittsburgh earlier this season but I still think playing at home is an advantage for the Steelers. I don’t think either side has a coaching edge. Having said that, it’s never a bad idea to bet on a Dick LeBeau defense in the postseason. Both sides have great defenses and capable offenses. They are virtual equals, as the final scores over the last few years indicates.
Special teams are almost always big in games like this and it is one area where I think the Ravens should have a clear advantage. Baltimore has a more dependable FG kicker, although that edge might be erased at Heinz Field in January, as the weather and field conditions could make kicking a chore. However, the Ravens are good at pinning teams deep in their own territory on punts and kickoffs and they will need to do that to the Steelers on Saturday. That was a big reason that they won in Pittsburgh earlier this season.
We know that both defenses will make some plays. This game may be decided by which defense makes the most plays. Avoiding mistakes will of course be big. If the Ravens are going to win this game, Joe Flacco needs to avoid costly mistakes. Also, it will be important for Flacco to make good throws when he has opportunities. He did not do this in the 2nd game.
This is obviously a tough game to pick. It could go either way. I have a feeling that the Steelers will again come out on top. Big Ben’s record in big games and home field advantage for Pittsburgh are two of the main reasons why.
Saturday Night’s Game
Green Bay (+2.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: Flash back to a week ago, and Falcons fans would have been psyched to see this matchup. After the Seahawks beat New Orleans on Saturday, however, I’m thinking some Falcons fans were secretly hoping that the Eagles beat Green Bay, so that Seattle would be heading to Atlanta. Oh well, no excuses. This is a huge game for the Falcons. It’s a rematch from the regular season, and if this one is anything like the first meeting, it’s going to be a nail biter.
Playoff Position
Green Bay: The Packers held off the Bears at home in week 17, winning 10-3 to finish 10-6. With the win, the Packers earned the final wild card bid and the #6 seed in the NFC. That earned the Packers a Wild Card round date in Philly with Michael Vick and the Eagles. The Packers hung on to beat the Eagles, 21-16, and as the #6 seed they were automatically slated to play the top seed Falcons in Atlanta in the next round.
Atlanta: The Falcons needed a win in week 17 to clinch the NFC South title and the #1 seed in the playoffs. They won easily over the Panthers at home, 31-10, to finish with the NFC’s best record, taking the division and the top seed in the conference.
Records and Trends
Green Bay: The Packers are now 11-6 overall (10-7 ATS) and 4-5 on the road (5-4 ATS). They have a super +9.0 average scoring differential. They have won 3 straight and they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4. The win at Philly snapped a 3 game skid on the road, and they have now won 2 straight ATS on the road.
Atlanta: The Falcons finished the season 13-3 overall (11-5 ATS) and 7-1 at home (5-3 ATS). They have a +7.9 average scoring differential (4th best in the regular season) and they have won 9 of their last 10. They are 7-1 in their last 8 ATS. They lost their first home game of the season in week 16 to the Saints. They are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 at home.
Green Bay’s Wild Card Game
The Packers were slight underdogs on the road in the opening round, facing a banged up Philadelphia team that finished the season on a sour note. Michael Vick was not Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson was not DeSean Jackson, and the Packers were in control most of the night. Green Bay did not put the Eagles away, however, and if not for a poor performance by one of the game’s better kickers and a mistake by Vick in the end, Philly might have come back to steal this one. In the end, the last light of the Eagles fizzling season was snuffed out, as the Packers hung on to win 21-16.
From the opening series of the game, it was clear that Mike Vick was not 100%. He was sacked on the first play of the game and stuffed on a run up the middle on 3rd and 1 as the Eagles started with a 3-and-out. However, a short punt hit off a Green Bay player and the Eagles recovered at the 41 of the Packers. Again, the Eagles couldn’t move it, as Vick threw incomplete on 3rd and 3 from the 23. They settled for a 41-yard attempt by the usually trustworthy David Akers but the left footer hooked it wide right and the Eagles had nothing.
The Packers moved the ball to the Philly 38 on their opening possession before punting. Things got worse for the Eagles on their 2nd possession, as DeSean Jackson got rolled up on by a teammate and hobbled to the sideline in frustration with an apparent leg injury. The Eagles were fortunate to fall on a fumble by LeSean McCoy on a 3rd down play but they still had to punt. On Green Bay’s 2nd possession, Aaron Rodgers threw incomplete on 3rd and 5 but the Eagles were offsides, giving the Packers a first down. They marched down the field and scored the game’s first points, with Rodgers hitting some guy named Tom Crabtree on a 7-yard TD pass to make it 7-0 after 1 quarter of play.
On the Eagles next possession, Clay Matthews sacked Vick on 3rd and 6 and Philly punted again. The Packers would catch another break on 3rd down on their next possession, as John Kuhn’s fumble on 3rd and 1 was recovered by the Packers for a 1st down. Green Bay went down and scored again, with James Jones catching a 9-yard TD pass from Rodgers this time, putting the Eagles in a 14-0 hole. On their 4th possession, the Eagles finally put together a sustained drive, but they could not finish it off. On 3rd and 7 from the Packers 13, Vick threw short for a 2 yard gain to make it 4th and 5. The Eagles needed points, and they settled for a 29-yard field goal by Akers that made it 14-3 at the half.
The Eagles offense had work to do in the 2nd half but first they had to give the ball to Rodgers and the Packers. The defense would come up with a big play, however, as Darryl Tapp crashed in on 3rd and 2 from the 25 and sacked Rodgers, forcing a fumble. The Eagles recovered at the 24. Moments later, Vick hooked up with Jason Avant on a 25-yard TD pass to get the Eagles right back in it, down just 14-10.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, their defense was not able to get the job done 2 possessions in a row. The Packers came up with a huge response, Rodgers connected with Donald Driver to convert a pair of 3rd downs, and then on 2nd and goal from the 16, Brandon Jackson took a screen pass to the house to make it 21-10, Green Bay. The Eagles now needed to respond, and they drove to the Packers 37, but Vick scrambled for a gain of 2 and then fired back to back incompletions to bring up 4th and 8 from the 35. The Eagles chose to punt. It looked like the right decision, as the Packers went 3-and-out and had to punt from their own 7. The Eagles got out of a 1st and 25 situation and were driving, inside Green Bay territory as time ran out in the 3rd.
On 3rd and 1 from the 16, the Eagles gave the ball to McCoy and he was stuffed for no gain, bringing up 4th and 1. Needing a field goal and touchdown (plus the 2-point) to tie the game, the Eagles elected to try the 34-yard FG, but Akers hooked it right again, leaving the Eagles down by 11. It wasn’t looking good for the home team.
The Eagles defense showed something on the ensuing GB possession, as the Packers lined up on 3rd and 1 from midfield and gave the ball to Khun, who was swarmed under in the backfield for a loss of 3 yards. GB had to punt and now it was looking like the Eagles offense was getting going. They drove deep into Packers territory and it ended up with Philly facing a 4th and goal from the 1. Vick took it in for the score in a do-or-die moment, making it a 1 score game. The 2-point conversion try appeared to be good, as Vick hit Brent Celek in the back of the end zone, but it was ruled that Celek had gone out of bounds and was the first to touch the ball upon reentry. The next try came from the 8 and Vick fired incomplete to keep the score 21-16 Packers with just over 4 minutes remaining. This would turn out to be huge.
Now the Eagles had to stop Green Bay. The Packers picked up 1 first down, but on 3rd and 10 from the 37, Rodgers was dropped for sack and Green Bay had to punt it back to Vick and the Eagles. The final Eagles possession began at their own 34 with 1:45 to go. Right away Vick hit Jackson for 28 yards, moving the ball to the Green Bay 38 on a play that he nearly broke for a touchdown. On 3rd and 10, Vick hit Riley Cooper for 11 yards and a 1st down at the 27. With no timeouts and less than a minute to go, the Eagles certainly had to be aware of the clock, but they did not need to rush things. However, on the next play, Vick dropped back and threw a jump ball into the back corner of the end zone on the left side intended for Cooper. It was the type of play you make with 3 seconds on the clock, not 33. Vick’s ball was underthrown and Tramon Williams was in perfect position to intercept it in the end zone. He managed to bring the ball back out to the 4 before being tackled with 33 seconds remaining and the Eagles out of timeouts. Rodgers took one knee and the game was over, with the Packers hanging on for a 21-16 win.
Green Bay was actually out-gained in the game, 352-309, and out-passed, 271-171. But the Packers had more 1st downs (20-18) and out-rushed the Eagles 138-81. The Packers were 8 for 13 on 3rd down, while the Eagles were 5 for 13 on 3rd down (1 for 1 on 4th). Green Bay turned it over twice, helping keep the Eagles in the game, but Philly’s only turnover of the game sealed the victory for the Packers. The Packers held a 4 minute edge in time of possession and won the sack battle, 3-2. Two of the biggest keys to the game were red zone scoring and penalties. The Packers committed only 2 penalties for 15 yards, while the Eagles were penalized 7 times for 50 yards. The Packers were 3 for 3 scoring TD’s in the red zone, while the Eagles were just 1 for 3, and went 1 for 3 on relatively short field goal attempts.
Rodgers was solid, completing 18 of 27 passes for just 180 yards, but he threw 3 TD’s with no interceptions (though he did lose a fumble). Perhaps the biggest individual offensive performance for Green Bay—and certainly the most surprising of the entire game—came from James Starks, a rookie running back out of Buffalo. Starks carried the ball 23 times, rushing for 123 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. Driver made several huge catches, collecting 5 passes in all for 56 yards. Jackson caught 2 passes, including 1 for a TD. James Jones caught a 9 yard TD pass and Tom Crabtree—a 2nd year TE out of Miami of Ohio—caught a 7 yard TD pass. These unknowns helped make up for the fact that Greg Jennings was held to just 1 catch for 8 yards.
Michael Vick simply was not the guy we saw make the Washington Redskins look like
Wake Forest on Monday Night Football in week 10. He wasn’t bad, completing 20 of 36 passes for 292 yards and a TD, although his 1 INT was very costly. But he just wasn’t the force as a runner that he was for most of the season, rushing 8 times for just 32 yards and a TD. Somehow, the Packers managed to shutdown McCoy as well, holding him to 36 yards rushing on 12 carries and 4 catches for 36 yards receiving. The Packers, with help from an injury, were also able to keep DeSean Jackson under wraps, as he had just 2 catches for 47 yards. Avant hauled in 7 balls for 93 yards and a TD, and Maclin caught 3 passes for 73 yards, but with their 3 biggest play makers (Vick, Jackson, and McCoy) held in check, the Eagles offense was fairly ordinary. Of course everything might have been completely different if veteran kicker David Akers had not gone just 1 for 3 on FG tries (missing from 34 and 41 yards out).
Team Stats and Rankings
Green Bay: For Packers Offense, Defense, and Special Teams stats and rankings see last week’s Wild Card Round Betting Lines entry.
Atlanta Offense: The Falcons play a balanced and disciplined offensive game. This is what they are built around. It is also Mike Mularkey’s excellence as offensive coordinator that makes the Atlanta offense special. While they were just 16th in total offense this season, the Falcons scored 25.9 points a game, 5th best in the league. The strength of Atlanta’s offense is the fact that they are solid in almost all areas and not really bad in any area.
When Michael Turner came to Atlanta in 2008 and had a breakthrough season, carrying most of the load for the offense in Matt Ryan’s rookie season, the Falcons became known as a team built around the ground game. Though we’ve played a couple of seasons since then, the media and (presumably) many football fans have clung to that concept. It’s not entirely accurate. As with any balanced offensive attack, the run game is key to Atlanta’s success, but it’s not as if the Falcons have a dominant ground game. The Falcons stay true to the run, keeping in line with being a balanced attack, even though teams continue to focus on shutting down their rushing game. Atlanta finished 12th in rushing yards this season but just tied 25th in yards per attempt. Turner was productive this season, rushing for 1371 and 12 TD’s, though he averaged just 4.1 yards per carry. Jason Snelling is a more than capable #2 back, rushing for 324 yards and 2 TD’s (3.7 yards per carry), and making 44 catches for 303 yards and 2 TD’s.
With teams keying on the run game, the passing game is just as important for the Falcons as the ground game. The Falcons were 15th this season in passing yards, 10th in completion percentage, and tied 10th in passer rating. Ryan completed 62.5% of his passes for 3705 yards, posted a 91.0 passer rating, and fired 28 TD’s against 9 picks. His clear cut #1 wideout is Roddy White, who caught 115 passes for 1389 yards and 10 TD’s. Tony Gonzalez is still a difference maker at tight end, catching 70 passes for 656 yards and 6 TD’s this season. Michael Jenkins was hurt during the early part of the season, but he is a solid possession receiver, ending up with 41 receptions for 505 yards and 2 TD’s.
Because they don’t have the explosive plays that other offenses do, the Falcons rely on avoiding mistakes, staying on schedule, controlling the ball with long drives, and taking advantage of scoring opportunities. They were tied 4th this season INT’s, tied 6th in fumbles lost, and 3rd in sacks allowed. The Falcons finished 2nd in time of possession and were the 3rd best team on 3rd downs. They are tied 8th in passing TD’s and tied 9th in rushing TD’s.
Atlanta Defense: During the late 70’s and early 80’s, the Falcons built a reputation as being one of the strongest defensive teams in the NFL. Over the last 25 years, however, the Falcons have very rarely been a dominant defensive team, and they have often been a poor defensive team. Things finally began to turn under Mike Smith and defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder. Atlanta’s defense may not be dominant but it is no longer a liability. The defense is solid and it can be a strength. The Falcons were 16th in total defense this season but 5th in scoring defense, allowing just 18.0 points a game.
Certainly Atlanta is stronger on offense than they are on defense, but like the Falcons offensive attack, the defense is basically balanced. They do not have any particular strength but they are solid in most areas and they have only a few weaknesses. The Falcons were 22nd in passing yards allowed this season and tied 28th in opponent’s completion percentage, but they were tied 13th in passing TD’s allowed and 14th in opponent’s passer rating. The Falcons were 10th in rushing yards allowed and tied 8th in rushing TD’s allowed, though they were just tied 25th in opponent’s yards per carry.
Despite the tendency for opponents to pass often against the Falcons, they finished just tied 20th in sacks. However, the Falcons do not give up big plays through the air, as they finished 5th in passing plays of 20+ yards allowed and 9th in passing plays of 40+ yards allowed, despite all of those attempts. The Falcons are tied 16th in fumbles forced and tied 20th in fumbles recovered, but perhaps their biggest strength is the timely interception. The Falcons were 4th in INT’s this season. The defense struggles to get off the field at times, as they finished 22nd on 3rd down this season. However, the Falcons are among the best teams in the league in 3rd and short situations.
Atlanta’s biggest difference play maker on defense is Big John Abraham, who recorded 13 sacks this season, also intercepting a pass and forcing 2 fumbles. The Falcons have some depth on the defensive line this season. Kroy Biermann made 3 sacks and returned a pick for a TD; Johnathan Babineux recorded 4 sacks, intercepted a pass, forced 2 fumbles, and returned a fumble for a TD; and Chauncy Davis had a sack and a pick-six. In the secondary, Brent Grimes is an undersized cornerback who fights like a coyote and has the smarts of a fox. Both he and safety William Moore intercepted 5 passes this season.
Atlanta Special Teams: In fitting with the overall balance of the team, the Falcons are good in the area of special teams. The placekicking of Matt Bryant was steady all year, as the Falcons hit on 90% of FG tries (4th best), including 9 of 11 on kicks of 40+ yards and 1 for 1 on attempts of 50+ yards (although they did have 1 kick blocked). The Falcons are also 5th in the NFL in touchback percentage on kickoffs and 9th in kickoff coverage. The weak spot in Atlanta’s special teams is punter Matt Koenan’s leg strength, as the Falcons are just 26th in net punting. However, Koenan is good at directional punting and hangtime, and the Falcons were tied 8th in punts downed inside the 20. The Atlanta return game also mirrors the overall theme of the team. While the Falcons may not be the most dangerous return team, they might have the best overall return game in the league outside of Chicago. The Falcons were 1st in kickoff return average this season and tied 5th in punt return average, as Eric Weems had a kick return for a TD and a punt return for a TD.
Turnovers, Big Plays, Penalties, and Red Zone
Green Bay: See last week’s WC Round entry.
Atlanta: Even in the area of defensive and special teams touchdowns the Falcons have been balanced. They have taken 2 picks to the house, returned a fumble for a touchdown, returned a kickoff for a touchdown, and returned a punt for a TD. On the other side, the Falcons gave up a kickoff return for a TD and had a punt blocked for a score. They allowed 1 fumble return for a touchdown but they have not thrown a pick-six. The Falcons have been very good at protecting the ball this season, turning it over just 16 times (3rd best), while notching 29 takeaways (8th best) for a +13 turnover differential (3rd best in the NFL). The Falcons are just 22nd defensively in red zone scoring but they are 7th in offensive red zone scoring. One of the biggest strengths for Atlanta under coach Mike Smith has been their ability to avoid mistakes. The Falcons were #1 in the NFL this season in penalties per game and 3rd in penalty yards per game.
Injury News
Green Bay: Green Bay’s 2nd consecutive injury plagued season was discussed in-depth last week. This week’s injury report is actually pretty good for the Packers. LB Frank Zombo is the only player listed as doubtful. He has missed the last couple of games. LB Jiyral Briggs played last week and is questionable for Saturday. Safety Atari Bigby missed the first round of the playoffs and is questionable for this week. FB Korey Hall has been out for the last few weeks but is probable for this Saturday. WR Donald Driver also made the list as probable.
Atlanta: In the Falcons surprising 2008 season they had great luck with injuries. Predictably, they were not so fortunate last season. So far this season their luck has returned. Rookie WR Kerry Meier was lost for the year in preseason. Reserve TE Tobbie Agaone went on IR after 7 games and reserve DB Shann Schillinger made it to week 16 before getting hurt and going on IR. The only key player the Falcons have had to place on IR is RB Jerious Norwood who blew out his knee in week 2.
There are some injury concerns for the Falcons heading into the playoffs. A number of players are banged up (although what NFL player isn’t banged up at this point?) and DB Brian Williams has been downgraded to doubtful for this Saturday with a knee injury.
Regular Season Meeting: In week 12, the Falcons hosted the Packers at the Georgia Dome and found a way to win yet another close game, 20-17. Green Bay had a 22-19 edge in 1st downs and out-gained Atlanta 418-294. The Falcons led 3-0 after the 1st quarter and 10-3 at the half. It was tied up 10-10 after 3 quarters but Atlanta retook the lead, 17-10, early in the 4th. Green Bay went on a 90-yard drive late in the 4th, with Aaron Rodgers finding Jordie Nelson in the end zone for the tying score on 4th and goal from the 10 with 56 seconds left. However, the Falcons got a long kickoff return from Eric Weems and moved into FG position. Matt Bryant hit a 47 yarder with 9 seconds left to put the Falcons up 20-17. They hung on and escaped with the victory.
One of the keys to the game was Green Bay’s inability to cash in on scoring chances. They were stopped at the 4 and had to settle for a FG early in the game. Later, Rodgers fumbled on 3rd and goal from the Atlanta 1. In the 4th quarter, the Packers went for it on 4th and 1 from the Atlanta 41 and got stopped, turning it over on downs.
Series History: There is more to this series than you might expect. The all-time series is tied at 13-13 (1-1 in the playoffs). The Packers won the first 5 meetings, but the Falcons have won 13 of the last 21. The Falcons have won the last 2 meetings and 4 of the last 6 (since 2001). The Falcons are 8-4 against Green Bay at home.
This will be the 3rd time the Packers and Falcons have squared off in the playoffs. The first postseason meeting was in the 1995 wild card round. The Packers won 37-20 at Lambeau. In the 2002 wild card round the Falcons went back to Green Bay as 7 point underdogs and pulled off one of the more pleasant surprises in franchise history. In Michael Vick’s 1st playoff game, the Falcons dominated the Packers in the snow, winning 27-7. It remains the only outdoor, road playoff win in Atlanta history .
Of course, these teams are forever linked by Brett Favre. Of all the people in the world who associate Favre with Green Bay, most probably do not even know what Favre’s connection with Atlanta is. In fact, while it’s one of the most dubious moments in Atlanta sports history (and there are many), it really isn’t as widely remembered locally as you might expect. In 1991, the Falcons drafted Favre out of Southern Mississippi with the 33rd pick. He quickly found himself in the doghouse with the Atlanta coaching staff, almost entirely due to his off the field behavior.
He played in 2 games that season and did not impress, completing 0 of 4 attempts, throwing 2 picks, and taking a sack. The Falcons, however, had their best season in over a decade, going 10-6 and getting their first playoff win since 1978. With the QB of the future (Chris Miller) seemingly in place, the Falcons decided to trade Favre the following offseason. They were able to get the #17 pick in the draft from Green Bay. The Falcons traded back to the #19 pick and took Favre’s former Southern Miss teammate, RB Tony Smith. Smith played in 14 games in 1992, making 6 starts, and rushing for a total of 329 yards and 2 touchdowns. Amazingly, he never actually carried the ball again. He was the full time kick and punt returner in 1993, averaging 8.0 yards per punt return and 24.9 yards per kick return. He had a KR for a TD and was 4th in the league in KR average. However, Smith was injured in the 4th game of the 1994 season and never played again. As for Favre, his legend would begin in 1992, and I know I don’t have to tell you the rest of his story.
There are a couple of things to remember about the whole Favre situation. Number one, at the time, it looked like a solid move, and even now the thinking behind the move holds up. Favre did not appear mature enough to make it in the NFL. He didn’t work or study, he partied and was out of shape. It seemed like the Falcons had found their QB in Chris Miller, who was still very young, and had not yet developed the concussion problems that would eventually end his career. If Favre wasn’t going to be the QB of the future, he certainly didn’t appear that he would take things seriously enough to be a useful backup QB. Drafting Smith is another issue, but at that point, unless you had a gift for seeing into the future, trading Favre for a #17 pick made a lot of sense.
The second thing to keep in mind is that it’s very possible that Favre would never have amounted to anything in the NFL if the trade hadn’t been made. Sending him to Green Bay was a wakeup call for him. Perhaps more importantly, he moved from the southeast (where he’d lived all his life) to the upper Midwest, and he moved from the nightlife of Atlanta to the nightlife of Green Bay, Wisconsin. There are endless other benefits but these are the main things to remember.
While the Favre trade haunted many in Atlanta for years, the Falcons have enjoyed some of the bigger and more memorable wins in their history against Green Bay. I mentioned the 2002 playoff game earlier. There was also a memorable and important game in that 1991 season (Favre’s year with Atlanta) when the Falcons pulled off a miraculous comeback to beat the Packers at home. The Falcons had come into the game on a roll, having won 4 of 5, but they had to keep winning to stay in the playoff race. They were down 28-14 in the 4th quarter but came back to win 35-31. In 2008, the Falcons won 27-24 at Green Bay in week 5 for the first road win in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era.
Team Playoff Histories
Green Bay: This is the 26th trip to the playoffs for the Packers (2nd straight and 3rd in the last 4 years). They are now 26-15 all-time in the postseason and 8-12 on the road. Green Bay is 6-7 in the divisional round but just 1-7 on the road in the divisional round. Last week’s win at Philly snapped a 4-game losing streak on the road for the Packers. This is the 3rd playoff appearance for the Packers in 5 years under Mike McCarthy. The Packers are 2-2 in playoff games under McCarthy (1-1 on the road) and 1-0 in the divisional round. Aaron Rodgers is quarterbacking the Packers in the playoffs for a 2nd time. He got his first playoff win last week and is now 1-1 in the postseason, both games on the road. He will play in the divisional round for the first time this week.
Atlanta: This is the 10th playoff appearance in franchise history for the Falcons (all since 1978) and the 2nd in the last 3 years. They are 6-9 all-time in the playoffs and 3-1 at home. They are just 2-4 in the divisional round (2-1 at home). The Falcons have a 5-4 record in their opening game of the playoffs. This is the 2nd playoff appearance in 3 years for the Falcons in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan/Michael Turner era. They are 0-1 in the playoffs so far, and will be playing their first home playoff game and first divisional round playoff game during this era.
Keys to the Game: I’ve spent a week feeling butterflies in my stomach each time the subject of this game was brought up. Big games are always scary for Falcons fans, but this is an especially worrisome matchup. I was very worried about the matchup in the regular season and the Falcons found a way to get it done, but there were some unusual things about that game. When you look at it, the Packers out-gained Atlanta, and they uncharacteristically came up short on a number of scoring opportunities. I think the Falcons will have to play better in this game in order to win again.
Last week in Philly, the Packers pulled a running game out of their ass, with James Starks rushing for 123 yards and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. That can’t happen this week if the Falcons are going to win, and I don’t think it will. The Falcons must put everything on Rodgers and make him beat them with an unbalanced attack. They will need to come up with the timely takeaways that they have had all season. One key could be the health of Greg Jennings, who had a big game against Atlanta earlier in the year, but was not a factor in Philly last week.
Offensively, the Falcons must continue to do the things they have done all year, taking care of the ball and taking advantage of scoring opportunities. Atlanta was able to run the ball successfully on Green Bay during the regular season game and they will need to be able to do that again. This is especially important because the strength of Dom Capers is in confusing QB’s and making them hesitate and make mistakes. The more Ryan has to throw and the more he has to throw in obvious passing situations, the greater the chances are for a mistake.
I don’t think there is a coaching edge in this game. Both teams have quality coaching staffs. The Capers-Mularkey matchup will be huge for sure. I think you have to give the QB edge to Rodgers. He is a little better as a passer and is more of a factor as a runner. Rodgers also has a playoff win, something that Ryan does not have. However, if it’s close in the final minutes, Ryan is a guy you want leading your team. The Falcons have a clear edge in special teams and that could be big in a game that will likely be close from start to finish. And playing at home should be a big help to the Falcons. They have confidence playing at the Dome due to their great history of success over the last few years. And simply not having to deal with crowd noise on offense—a major factor in the loss at Arizona in 2008—should be a big plus for Ryan and the Falcons.
This one is also very tough to call. There are many reasons to like Green Bay in this game. However, the Falcons have flown under the radar all season, and they have continued to prove doubters wrong. You don’t go 13-3 by accident. Time after time, this team has shown a knack for figuring out how to win the game. It’s a quality that may not be evident in stats, but is obvious from watching them play. I believe the Falcons will find a way to get it done again on Saturday.
Sunday’s Early Game
Seattle (+10) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears win but Seahawks beat the spread
Comment: Well, this certainly wasn’t the game we were expecting. But it’s suddenly very interesting. The crazy thing is, you could see the Seahawks pulling it off. There’s nothing for them to be scared of going into this matchup. And they’re playing with house money.
Playoff Position
Seattle: The Seahawks beat the Rams on Sunday night in the final regular season game of the 2010 NFL season, winning 16-6 at home to finish the season 7-9. Ordinarily, such a game would have no impact on the postseason, but this was not an ordinary season. With the win, the Seahawks finished tied for 1st in the NFC West with the Rams, and they won the tiebreaker to take the division title and earn the #4 seed. It turned out that they would host the #5 seed New Orleans Saints. They came in as an historic home underdog, but they outplayed, outsmarted, and outmanned the defending champs to pull off a shocking upset, 41-36. When the Packers won on Sunday, it meant that the Seahawks would play at #2 Chicago in the Divisional round.
Chicago: The Bears had clinched the NFC North title and a first round bye heading into week 17, but they still had a chance to get the #1 seed in the NFC if the Falcons lost and they beat the Packers in Green Bay. They wound up losing a low scoring affair, 10-3, allowing the Packers to clinch a wild card bid. The Falcons ended up winning anyway, so the Bears would have been the #2 seed regardless.
Records and Trends
Seattle: The Seahawks are now an incredible 8-9 overall (8-9 ATS) but just 2-6 on the road (2-6 ATS). They still have a -5.5 average scoring differential which is not good. They have won 2 straight and 2 straight ATS. But they have lost 3 straight road games and 3 straight ATS on the road.
Chicago: The Bears finished the season 11-5 overall (9-6-1 ATS) and 5-3 at home (4-4 ATS). They have a +3.0 average scoring differential (10th best in the regular season). The Bears are just 2-2 in their last 4 but they have won 3 straight ATS. They are 3-1 in their last 4 home games and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Seattle’s Wild Card Game
Well, this is the NFL, you know. If you give a team home field advantage, put them up against a team with major injury problems, and tell them they have no chance to win, you have the elements that could come together to create a major upset. It just takes a spark or a strong gust of wind to ignite this sort of thing. For the Seahawks, the spark was an ill-conceived piece of strategy used by the Saints, and that strong gust of wind was a brilliant performance by their hobbled and all but forgotten veteran QB. Oh, and when it looked like the Saints might be able to douse the flames and wrestle their season from the blazes still intact, Marshawn Lynch appeared and nuked it out of existence.
The day began with everything going according to the original script. The Seahawks sent the opening kickoff out of bounds and New Orleans marched down the field. On 3rd and 2 from the Seattle 8, Drew Brees dropped back to pass and had plenty of time. He could have easily run for the first down, but instead he zipped a pass to Reggie Bush who was wide open, cutting across from right to left. It was a touchdown. The only problem was that Bush bobbled the pass and eventually dropped it as he crossed out of bounds. That brought up 4th and 2 and the Saints settled for a short Garrett Hartley FG that gave them a 3-0 lead.
On the ensuing kickoff, Thomas Morstead sent a little pooch kick to the right that I at first mistook for another Sean Payton surprise onsides kick. In fact, the Saints had decided that Seattle KR Leon Washington was the only guy that could beat them, so they would rather sacrifice field position than risk a big return. James Forset made the odd fair catch at the Seattle 37. It was great starting field position for the Seahawks, but on 3rd and 1 from the 46, Matt Hasselbeck made a rushed throw off to his right that was out of the reach of his target and intercepted by Jabari Greer. The Saints took over at the Seattle 35. The Saints nearly turned it back over on a fumbled exchange, but Julius Jones recovered, and the Saints converted a 3rd and 8. On 3rd and 3 from the 5, Brees threw incomplete, but the Seahawks were called for pass interference in the end zone. On 1st and goal from the 1, Brees dropped a pass off to Heath Evans for the touchdown, giving the Saints a 10-0 lead less than 10 minutes into the game. The crowd was already starting to murmur. It looked like the competitive portion of this game would not last long.
But then the Saints repeated their pooch kick tactic and gave the Seahawks a little opportunity to get back in the game. This time the kick was fielded at the 25 and returned 18 yards to the 43. The Seahawks had thrown a pick on their first possession and they were already down 10-0. This field position not only put them 25 yards or so from scoring position right off the bat, it also opened up their options as they would not have to worry about being as conservative. The Seahawks quickly moved into New Orleans territory and into the red zone. When Brandon Stokley was stopped a yard short of a 1st down at the 12, it looked like the Seahawks would face 3rd and 1, but Roman Harper was called for defensive holding, giving the Seahawks an automatic 1st down. On 1st and 10 from the 11, Hasselbeck hit TE John Carlson over the middle for a touchdown to get the Seahawks right back into the game, down just 10-7. That got the crowd back in it too as the 1st quarter came to a close.
Attempting to quiet the crowd again, the Saints responded to the Seattle score, taking the ball right down the field again on their next possession. On 3rd and 4 from the Seattle 5, Julius Jones took the handoff and went into the end zone for a TD to make it a 10-point game again. It was 17-7 and the Seahawks hadn’t yet stopped the Saints. However, they had only stopped themselves so far on offense, and it became obvious that they felt they could turn it into a shootout.
The Saints kicked off conventionally this time and the Seahawks took over at their 30. Hasselbeck threw incomplete for Stokley on 2nd and 4 from the 48 and it looked like Seattle would face 3rd down, but Harper was called for pass interference, giving the Seahawks a 1st down in New Orleans territory. Two plays later, Hasselbeck dropped back and while fading away due to pressure he slung a soft, floating pass down the left sideline. Tight End Cameron Morrah (who?) ran it down, made the catch, and took it to the 7 for a 39 yard gain and a 1st and goal. This was the play that turned the game around. On the next splay, Hasselbeck rolled right and Carlson made as if he were going out to block and then fell. He got up and Hasselbeck threw back to the left where Carlson was wide open for a 7 yard TD pass to make it a 17-14 game. The crowd was back and momentum had shifted. Belief had come into existence in the hearts and minds of both sides.
But could Seattle’s defense stop the Saints? We found out on the ensuing New Orleans possession, as the Saints went 3-and-out. Thomas Morstead got off a punt from his own 5 and immediately was contacted by one of the Seahawks trying to block the kick. It was significant contact with Morstead in a “vulnerable” position and it sent him to the ground. Morstead tried to sell it but no flag came, as the refs said that the player was blocked into the kicker. This was an interesting interpretation. In any event, the Seahawks avoided a calamity and took over at their own 38. On 3rd and 4 from the 44, Mike Williams dropped a pass that would have been good for a 1st down, and the Seahawks had to punt it right back to the Saints. But Seattle’s defense was starting to settle in. On 1st down from the 19, Raheem Brock hit Julius Jones at the line, forced a fumble, and recovered it at the New Orleans 18. The Seahawks took over. On 3rd and 2 from the 10, Lynch was stopped for no gain, and Olindo Mare was called on to try the short FG. He hit it to tie the score at 17-17 midway through the 2nd quarter. This was a game.
Seattle kicked off. It was time for New Orleans to answer, but instead it was the Seattle defense sending another message. On 3rd and 5 from the 28, Brock got Brees for a sack and a loss of 7, as the Saints went 3-and-out again. On the ensuing Seattle possession, the Seahawks converted on a 3rd and 11 and then on a 3rd and 1. On 3rd and 3 from the New Orleans 45, Hasselbeck faked a handoff and then tossed a perfect pass deep down the left side for Stokley, who had gotten behind the defense. Stokley made the catch and took it into the end zone for a stunning 45 yard strike that made it 24-17. Seattle had the lead.
After throwing the pass, Hasselbeck stepped up into light and incidental contact with a pass rusher. He violently fell to the ground and began writhing in pain, before getting up and heading to the sidelines to celebrate, showing no signs of being in the slightest bit of discomfort. At first it was unclear what the hell had happened to him and how he had ended up on the ground. Replays would eventually enlighten us. It was simply an all out, brazen attempt to sell a non-existent late hit or unnecessary roughness penalty. Once he realized that it hadn’t worked, and more importantly, that the play had gone for a touchdown, he didn’t bother carrying the act on a second longer. Normally I would probably be a bit turned off by behavior like this, but it was pretty funny, and it illustrated that the guy was 100% focused on doing absolutely everything he could to win this game. You had to appreciate that.
The Saints desperately needed to accomplish something on their final drive of the half. Brees got the offense going again, hooking up with Devery Henderson on a 40 yard completion. They converted on 3rd and 10 and then on 3rd and 5. The Saints reached the 3, stopped the clock, and had time for one last play. Brees fired incomplete and the Seahawks had come up with another huge stop. New Orleans had to settle for another short field goal, cutting the score to 24-20 as time expired in the 1st half.
Holding the Saints to a field goal at the end of the 1st half was especially big because of the fact that the Seahawks would get the ball first in the 2nd half. This meant that they could take a 2-score lead if they were able to drive for a TD. They drove quickly into New Orleans territory. On 2nd and 1 from the 37, Lynch got the handoff and was stopped for a loss of a yard. The Seahawks called a timeout. They came up with a good play. On 3rd and 2 from the 38, Hasselbeck faked the run and then hit Mike Williams down the right side for a 38 yard TD to put the Seahawks up 31-20. Now this was starting to be a very memorable performance.
On the Saints first drive of the 2nd half, they got one 1st down, but then the Seahawks got pressure on Brees again and he was called for intentional grounding. New Orleans had to punt and the Seahawks took over at the 46. They were quickly across midfield and then converted on a 3rd and 8 for a 1st down at the 30. Incredibly, the Seahawks had taken over the game and they were beginning to dominate. On 3rd and 1 from the 21, Hasselbeck got the ball to Ben Obomanu for what would have been another 1st down, but he dropped it, bringing up 4th and 1. It was 4th and short from the 21. A touchdown here would make it very tough for the Saints to come back. But a FG would make it a full 2-touchdown lead. Mare came back out and hit the 39 yarder to make it 34-20.
Surely the Saints would get going now. They started their next drive from the 28. Brees threw short to Bush on 1st down but it gained only 2 yards. He threw short to Henderson on 2nd down for 5 yards to bring up 3rd and 3 from the 35. On 3rd down, Brees dropped a pass off to the left to Jones and it looked at first sight that it would definitely gain enough for the 1st down, but the Seattle defense closed hard and fast and overturned Jones so that he landed a yard shy of the 1st at the 37 yard line. With more than a quarter of play remaining, the Saints had to punt.
But they kept the offense on the field. It had to be just a ruse to try and draw Seattle offsides. But it wasn’t. Brees took the snap and handed it to Jones and he was stopped cold before the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks took over at the New Orleans 36, up 14, with less than 4 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Any score here would force the Saints to come up with a miracle to win this game. But on 2nd and 8 from the 34, Williams dropped a pass, making it 3rd and 8 from the 34. Hasselbeck threw incomplete on 3rd down and the Seahawks were left with the option of trying a 51 yard field goal and possibly giving the Saints great field position, or punting and gaining only a few yards of field position.
Pete Carroll decided to punt and the Saints took over at their own 13. The Seahawks had gotten no points and taken almost no time off the clock. They had gained only about 20 yards of field position. Sean Payton had gotten away with his ill-fated gamble. The Saints were in trouble but they were still very much in it, down only 2 scores, with more than a full quarter of play remaining.
Seattle’s defense continued to befuddle the Saints, forcing 2 quick incompletions to bring up 3rd and 10 from the 13. It looked like the Saints were going to have to give it back again. But on 3rd and 10, Brees hit Bush over the middle and he picked up 13 yards and a 1st down at the 26. For about the next half hour, it looked like this might be the play that turned it all around and saved the New Orleans season.
The Saints drove into Seattle territory and had a 1st down at the 36 as the 3rd quarter came to a close. It looked like the Saints would have a 3rd and 3 from the 29, but Chris Clemons was called for unnecessary roughness against the QB, giving the Saints a 1st down inside the red zone. On 1st and goal from the 4, Jones ran into the end zone for a TD to cut the score to 34-27 with still 13:11 to play.
Now the Seahawks would have to answer. But they went 3-and-out. Even worse, they went 3-and-out on 3 straight incompletions, taking no time off the clock. After the punt, the Saints had the ball at their 44, down only 7. Suddenly it looked like something had snapped into place for the Saints, as they moved right down inside the red zone. On 3rd and 3 from the 4, Brees completed a quick pass out to Henderson, but the Seattle defense closed quickly and stopped him at the 3, bringing up 4th and 2. There was so much time remaining, the Saints decided to take the chip shot field goal. Hartlett hit the FG to cut the score to 34-30. There was still 9:13 to play but the Seahawks had at least held the Saints off for a little longer.
Now the Seahawks absolutely had to answer on offense, but Hasselbeck fired incomplete on 2nd and 8 from the 31 to bring up 3rd and long. However, as Seattle lined up on 3rd down, the Saints burned a timeout with the clock stopped. Then on 3rd and 8, Hasselbeck hit Stokley for 12 yards and a 1st down at the 43. The crowd let out a relieved and exuberant hurrah. This at least bought Seattle some field position and their defense some time. The Saints then sacked Hasselbeck and held on 3rd and 17 to force a punt.
The Seahawks needed a big kick and they got one from Joe Ryan, who booted it all the way to the New Orleans 9. Seattle covered it well, stopping Lance Moore at the New Orleans 12. In addition, the Saints were flagged for holding and clipping on the play, and the Seahawks excepted the holding call that moved the ball back to the 6. The Saints had the ball, needing only a TD to take the lead and save themselves, and there was 5:36 remaining, but they would have to go a long way to get there.
The Saints quickly got a 1st down at the 17, but a penalty moved them back to the 12 and made it 1st and 15. They got it to the 19 to set up a manageable 3rd and 8. With Evans going out of bounds on the previous play, the clock was stopped, but the Saints burned their 2nd timeout in order to discuss strategy. On 3rd and 8 from the 19, Clemons brought major heat around the right tackle, forcing Brees to hurry his throw (and forcing a holding penalty) and it went incomplete. The Saints would have to punt. The Seahawks got the ball back at their own 33 with 4:20 to go, leading by 4.
The Seahawks would now try and move the ball in order to run the clock. The Saints could only stop it once due to the wasted timeouts. Everyone in the stadium knew that the Seahawks would be running the ball. It seemed that way on 1st down, as Lynch was stopped for no gain. The Saints had time for a stop but a turnover would be the best thing. With Lynch likely running cautiously and trying to protect against a fumble, the Saints could stop him and then try and strip him. That was one possibility. But that’s not how it happened. Lynch got the handoff again on 2nd and 10 from the 33 and again went right up the middle, but this time he hit the hole hard and was not fully brought to a stop right away, moving through the pile for a good gain and making it hard on the defense to end the play. He kicked free and continued forward, crossing the 43 for a 1st down and then breaking away down the right side and across midfield. A speedy Saints defender ran him down but Lynch threw him off with his left hand and then continued down the right side. He picked up his heels to evade desperation tackle attempts and stayed in bounds, picking up assistance from his entire team along the way. Finally he cut back and passed through the final defenders, crossing over the goal line and into the end zone to complete a back braking, statement ending, season crushing 67 yard touchdown run. In all seriousness, it was one of the greatest runs in NFL history, and it put the Seahawks up 41-30 with just 3:22 remaining on the clock.
The Saints needed a miracle. With Seattle’s defense playing cautiously and looking to keep everything in front of them, the Saints marched down the field, going 70 yards in 9 plays over just 1:52. On 1st and goal from the 6, Henderson caught a 6-yard TD pass from Brees to make it 41-36 with 1:30 remaining. They went for 2 to try and make it a FG game, but Deshawn Wynn was stuffed on a run up the middle, keeping the score 41-36. With only a minute and a half remaining and just 1 timeout, the Saints would now have to go for the onsides kick. This time it would be expected. Hartley came out to attempt the onsides try to the right and he kicked it right to Carlson who fielded it easily at the 47 and immediately went down. It was not a good effort by Hartley. On 1st down from the 47, the Seahawks decided to run a real play, hoping to take as much time off the clock as possible. Lynch took the handoff and picked up 8. The Saints called their last timeout with 1:23 on the clock. Seattle handed it off again on 2nd down, with Lynch losing a yard to bring up 3rd down. Now Hasselbeck could just take a knee and he did and the clock ran out. The Seahawks had pulled it off, 41-36.
The Seahawks were out-gained by New Orleans, 474-415, and the Saints had a huge edge in 1st downs (32-19). The Saints out-passed Seattle 397-265 and they had a 4 minute edge in time of possession. New Orleans had a 2-1 edge in sacks, the turnovers were equal at 1-1, and the penalties were almost exactly equal (Seattle was charged with 6 for 39 yards, while the Saints were hit with 7 for 39 yards). The Seahawks were 6 for 14 on 3rd down, while the Saints were 6 for 14 on 3rd down (0 for 1 on 4th down). However, there were two major keys. The Seahawks out-rushed the Saints 150-77, and they were 2 for 3 scoring TD’s in the red zone, while the Saints were just 4 for 7.
Hasselbeck was brilliant. He completed 22 of 35 passes for 272 yards, 4 TD, and 1 pick. But stats alone don’t tell the story. He threw a half dozen spectacular passes, all of them huge in this game. Lynch put the nail in the coffin with his incredible run. He finished the day rushing for 131 yards and a TD on 19 carries. Stokley was huge, catching 4 passes for 73 yards and a TD. Williams had 4 catches for 68 yards and a TD. Obomanu caught 5 for 43 yards. Morrah made 1 huge catch for 39 yards and John Carlson caught 3 passes for 17 yards, including a pair of TD’s (and the game clinching onsides kick). Ryan placed 3 of his 4 punts inside the 20 and Mare was 2 for 2 on FG tries.
Brees threw the ball 60 times, completing 39 passes for 404 yards, 2 TD’s, and no INT’s. Jones rushed 15 times for 59 yards and 2 TD’s and caught 6 passes for 61 yards. He did have a crucial fumble lost. Henderson made 7 catches for 77 yards and a TD. Coltson caught 4 passes for 66 yards and Moore caught 4 passes for 49 yards. Evans made 4 catches for 23 yards and a TD. Hartley hit all 3 field goal tries. Reggie Bush did not have a big day. He ran 5 times for a total of 12 yards and caught 5 passes for 37 yards. He had a crucial drop way back on that first drive of the game. Who knows how it turns out if that play is made.
Team Stats and Rankings
Seattle: For Seahawks Offense, Defense, and Special Teams stats and rankings see last week’s Wild Card Round Betting Lines entry.
Chicago Offense: The strength of the Chicago Bears may have been on offense at some point in their long history. At least since I’ve been following the game, the Bears have never been an offensive power. The Bears have made attempts to change things in recent years. They switched defensive back and special teams wizard Devin Hester to wide receiver. They hired Mike Martz to be offensive coordinator. And two offseasons ago they traded for strong armed QB Jay Cutler. The changes did not immediately yield the desired drastic improvements. Early this season the Bears were a mess offensively, as they could not keep Cutler off his back, and when he was upright he often threw the ball to the other team. However, towards the end of the season, the Bears became a much improved and much more capable offense.
Despite the improvements, the overall offensive numbers this season for the Bears could not be described as “pretty,” unless you change that word from adjective to adverb and place the word “ugly” directly after it. Chicago scored 20.9 points a game this season, 21st in the NFL, and they were just 30th in total offense. They are 28th in passing yards (20th in passing TD’s and tied 25th in picks) and 22nd in rushing yards (tied 23rd in yards per carry and tied 21st in rushing TD’s). They were 20th in passer rating and 22nd in completion percentage. And of course they were dead last in sacks allowed. The Bears were 21st in TOP and just 27th on 3rd down. Chicago finished tied 13th in fumbles lost.
Matt Forte led the ground game for Chicago again this season, rushing for 1069 yards and 6 TD’s, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He is also a force as a receiver, making 51 catches for 547 yards and 3 TD’s. Cutler ended up with reasonable numbers this season, completing 60.4% of his passes for 3274 yards, posting a passer rating of 86.3, and throwing 23 TD’s against 16 picks. Johnny Knox is Chicago’s best deep threat, catching 51 passes for 960 yards and 5 TD’s. Cutler’s former Vanderbilt teammate Earl Bennett made 46 receptions for 561 yards and 3 TD’s. Devin Hester is obviously still a force returning kicks, and he made 40 catches for 475 yards and 4 TD’s as a wide receiver. Cutler relied less on Greg Olsen this season but the TE still managed 41 receptions for 404 yards and 5 TD’s.
Chicago Defense: From 1932 to 1963, the Chicago Bears won 7 NFL championships in 32 seasons. Since the end of that stretch, the Bears have won only 1 league title and have only sporadically been great. Whenever the Bears have been among the best teams in the league, the common element has been great defense. The Bears returned to the top of the standings this season, and once again it was defense that took them there.
This season has been a rarity, in that the Bears have been an excellent defensive team and have not received much publicity for it. The Bears gave up just 17.9 points a game this season, 4th best in the league, and they were 9th in total defense. Chicago was one of the top teams against the run this season, finishing 2nd in rushing yards allowed and tied 5th in yards per attempt (though just tied 20th in rushing TD’s allowed). The Bears were just 20th in passing yards allowed and 20th in opponent’s completion percentage, but they were 2nd in passing TD’s allowed and 3rd in opponent’s passer rating.
As usual, the Bears defense thrived on being aggressive and opportunistic this season. Though they were just 17th in sacks, the Bears finished tied 5th in picks, tied 4th in fumbles forced, and tied 5th in fumbles recovered. Julius Peppers was last offseason’s biggest addition and he came through for Chicago this season, recording 8 sacks, forcing 3 fumbles, intercepting 2 passes and blocking a kick. Fellow pass rusher Israel Idonije also notched 8 sacks, forced 3 fumbles, and blocked a kick. Charles Tillman and Chris Harris each had 5 picks, and Tillman also forced 3 fumbles. DJ Moore had 4 INT’s and returned 1 for a TD. The Bears don’t merely rely on big plays, however, as they are also 6th in the league on 3rd down.
Chicago Special Teams: The Bears are very strong on special teams, particularly in the return game, which is Chicago’s biggest strength overall and is the one thing that they are clearly superior at than any team they face. The Bears finished 1st in punt return average and 2nd in kickoff return average this season, with Hester returning 3 punts for touchdowns. They have a solid kicking game behind veteran Robbie Gould, hitting 83% of FG tries (tied 13th), including 7 of 11 from 40+ and 3 of 4 from 50+. The Bears are also 10th in touchback percentage on kickoffs. The only special teams area where the Bears are a bit suspect is in kick coverage. They are 22nd in kickoff coverage and 29th in net punting (tied 17th in punts inside the 20). The veteran Brad Maynard punts for Chicago.
Turnovers, Big Plays, Penalties, and Red Zone
Seattle: See last week’s WC Round entry.
Chicago: The Bears returned 3 punts for touchdowns this season and had 1 pick-six. On the other end, they allowed a punt return for a TD, gave up 2 pick-sixes, and had a fumble returned for a TD. They also gave up a safety. Though they improved as the season went on, the Bears still turned it over 29 times this season (tied 22nd), but they had 33 takeaways on defense (tied 3rd), giving them a +4 turnover differential (tied 10th). The Bears were 11th in red zone defense but just 26th in red zone offense. Chicago was 15th in penalties per game and penalty yards per game.
Injury News
Seattle: During last week’s stunning win over the Saints, LB Lofa Tatupu—one of Seattle’s best defensive players—was involved in a collision that left him dazed and confused on the sidelines. He’s questionable for this Sunday. Head injuries are going to be interesting in the playoffs from now on. At some point, the increased attention to head injuries is going to have an effect on a big game. It may not be this season, but at some point the choice of whether or not to play is going to be taken away from an important player and it’s going to be a big deal.
One final note: TE Chris Baker and tackle Chester Pitts have been officially declared out for the season.
Chicago: The Bears lost starting LB Hunter Hillenmeyer after only 1 game this season and reserve RB Harvey Unga’s season was over before it began. Outside of that, the Bears have been lucky in the injury department. DB Major Wright and linebackers Nick Roach and Pisa Tinoisamoa are probable this week. WR Earl Bennett sat out the season finale but is probable for Sunday.
Regular Season Meeting: In week 6, a Bears team still trying to figure things out fell to the Seahawks at home, 23-20. Seattle had a 20-15 edge in 1st downs and a 353-307 edge in total yards. The Seahawks had a 6-0 edge in the sack battle. Cutler completed just 17 of 39 passes for 290 yards. Chicago took a 7-0 lead early on but it was tied at 7-7 after the 1st quarter and Seattle held a 14-13 lead at the half. The Seahawks got a safety to increase the lead to 16-13. With Seattle leading 23-13, Devin Hester returned a punt 89 yards for a TD to make it a 3-point game with 1:54 to play. However, Chicago’s onsides kick was recovered by John Carlson (sound familiar?) and Seattle took a knee to finish off the victory, 23-20.
Series History: These two do not have a rich history, as the Seahawks were an expansion team in the late 70’s and did not move into the NFC until the last realignment. The Seahawks actually hold an 8-5 edge in the all-time series, although the Bears won the only playoff meeting. Seattle won 6 of the first 8 meetings between these two, but the Bears are 3-2 against the Seahawks since 2006. That was the year that Chicago and Seattle met in the playoffs. The Seahawks were defending NFC champs, but they were 9.5 point dogs on the road (sound familiar?). They put a big scare in the Bears, taking the game into OT before Chicago escaped with a 27-24 win. They would go on to make the Super Bowl.
Team Playoff Histories
Seattle: This is the 11th playoff appearance in Seattle franchise history (all since 1983). They now have an 8-10 record in the playoffs. They are just 1-7 on the road in the postseason. The Seahawks are 2-4 in the divisional round (1-4 on the road). Seattle has lost 7 straight on the road in the playoffs (last and only road win came in 1983). Matt Hasselbeck is leading the Seahawks in the playoffs for a 6th time. He is now 5-5 in playoff games but he is 0-3 on the road in the playoffs. He has gone 1-2 in the divisional round (0-2 on the road). The Seahawks won last Saturday in their first playoff game under Pete Carroll. Carroll is coaching in the playoffs for the 3rd time as an NFL coach. He is now 2-2 in the playoffs (0-2 on the road) and he is 0-1 in the divisional round (0-1 on the road).
Chicago: This is the 25th playoff appearance for the Bears (3rd in the last 6 years) and their first since 2006. Chicago is 17-18 all-time in the playoffs and 11-7 at home. The Bears are 5-8 in the divisional round (4-4 at home). Chicago is 12-12 in their opening game of the playoffs. This is the 3rd trip to the postseason for the Bears in 7 years under Lovie Smith. They are 2-2 in the playoffs under Smith (2-1 at home) and 1-1 in the divisional round (1-1 at home). Jay Cutler will be making his first appearance in the playoffs this Sunday.
Keys to the Game: The Seahawks played a great game last week, but can they really repeat that performance? Can they do it on the road? Can they do it against a tougher defense? I wouldn’t think so, but nobody is going to put it past them at this point. A number of teams have made playoff runs after having middling regular seasons in recent times. None of those teams have been as bad Seattle, but they proved last week that they are at least capable of more than they showed during the 16 game regular season. And I’m still not convinced that the Bears are better than good.
Playing at home should help the Bears but I think the more important factor is that the Seahawks won’t be at home. Playing at home was a big boost for them last week. There’s no way they pull that off in New Orleans. Now, a few years ago the Seahawks took the Bears to overtime in the playoffs on the road and they won in Chicago earlier this season. So I don’t think Chicago is such a scary place for them to play. But clearly they are not nearly as dangerous away from Qwest Field.
Before last week I would not have said that there was a coaching edge in this game. However, Pete Carroll showed me something last week. Lovie Smith has never shown me anything. The Bears have a major strength in special teams, but Seattle is strong in that area as well. Both teams could end up getting a big return and both teams have solid place kickers. I have to give the edge at QB to Hasselbeck. He’s got the experience, and if he can stay healthy throughout the game, I give him the edge. This will be Jay Cutler’s first playoff game. How will he respond? It’s not hard for me to picture him trying to do too much, trying to force a couple of balls, and just getting frustrated. Seattle has some capable pass rushers and the Bears pass protection—while improved—is still highly suspect. The Bears should be able run on Seattle, but you never know if Mike Martz will stick with the run.
The biggest problem I see for Seattle is that the Bears should be able to shut the run down completely. I know last week was a different story, but the Seahawks haven’t been able to run the ball all season, and the Bears have one of the better run defenses in the league. If the Bears aren’t worried about the play action pass and they are able to focus completely on Hasselbeck, it’s going to be tough for the Seahawks to do anything.
I think this will be a closer game than expected. Seattle will be confident and defensively I think they’ll be fine. However, I think Chicago’s defense will mostly shutdown Seattle’s offense. Seattle played a near perfect game last week. They were 7-9 this season for a reason. It’s highly unlikely they’ll play a 2nd straight perfect game, on the road, against a solid team.
Sunday’s Late Day Game
New York Jets (+9) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Jets beat the spread
Comment: You have to say that this has become one of the best rivalries in the NFL, even if it’s mostly one-sided (both on the field and off the field). This is an enormous game for the Jets and their fans. For the Patriots, it’s only a big game if they somehow lose. There are two possible outcomes, and only one is pleasant: either the mouthy, overly hyped Jets are going to get their asses kicked again; or people are going to say that Rex Ryan is a genius.
Playoff Position
New York Jets: The Jets had already clinched a wild card bid going into week 17, but they had a slight chance of moving up to the #5 seed if they won and a whole bunch of other things happened. They rolled over the Bills in their final game of the season to finish 11-5, but they were unable to improve their position as the #6 seed. That sent them to Indianapolis to play the Colts in the WC round. They did not look good early on, but they came back to win on a late field goal, 17-16, to setup a date in Foxboro with the #1 Pats this weekend.
New England: The Patriots had the #1 seed sewn up in advance of week 17. Even playing their starters only part of the time, they still crushed the Dolphins 38-7 at home to finish with the NFL’s best record at 14-2.
Records and Trends
New York Jets: The Jets are now 12-5 overall (10-7 ATS) and an impressive 7-2 on the road (6-3 ATS). They have a +3.8 average scoring differential. New York is 3-1 in their last 4 and 3-1 ATS in their last 4. They are 2-1 in their last 3 road games and 2-1 ATS in their last 3 road games.
New England: The Patriots finished the season 14-2 overall (10-5-1 ATS) and a perfect 8-0 at home (4-3-1 ATS). They have a sparkling +12.8 average scoring differential (#1 in the NFL during the regular season). The Pats have won 8 straight and 13 of 14. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6. The Patriots were perfect at home this season, going 8-0. They are 2-1 ATS in their last 3 at home.
New York Jets’ Wild Card Game
The Jets were slight underdogs on the road in the first round, facing Peyton Manning and the Colts. An early playoff exit for Indianapolis would be nothing new, but the Colts had beaten the Jets in the AFC title game a year earlier. New York was still trying to live up to the hype and they didn’t look like anything special for most of the game. In the end, however, the Jets wound up on the right side of another close game. Once again, Peyton Manning was left frowning on the sidelines.
The Colts got the ball first and right away they were looking at a 3rd and 1 from their 29. They ran a very predictable stretch run play to the right and Joseph Addai got rocked for a loss of 2 yards. Failing on 3rd and short and 3rd and medium would be a recurring theme for the Colts. They punted after a 3-and-out, but they very nearly got the ball right back thanks to Santonio Holmes.
Holmes has not been the ordinary punt returner for the Jets this season, but he has a history of sterling performances as a return man in the playoffs, and Rex Ryan had him out there to return this first kick. Holmes, however, has not gotten to this point due to his high intelligence. He let the punt drop in front of him but did not call for a fair catch. With all of the Indy coverage men crowding around him, Holmes leaned over, arms stretched out like an infielder, and allowed the ball to roll slowly through his legs. A Colts player pushed him, hoping to knock him into the ball, but somehow, through complete and total luck, the ball never touched Holmes.
It was one of the dumbest things you will ever see an athlete—at any level—do in a game. After two excellent replays from different views, it was clear that the ball had avoided Holmes (Holmes did not avoid the ball; he had no control over the matter, it was complete luck), but for some reason Jim Caldwell threw out the red challenge flag. This was not a good challenge because there had been time to get a good look at the replay. 30 seconds into the game, the Colts had wasted a challenge and a timeout.
On New York’s 2nd offensive play, LaDainian Tomlinson broke off a 23 yard run for a 1st down at midfield. But then the Indy defense pushed back and stopped the Jets on 3rd and 14, forcing a punt, and Steve Weatherspoon put it in the end zone for a touchback. The Colts got it back and immediately faced 3rd and 1 from the 29 again. This time they threw the ball, and Manning completed a short pass to Blair White, but the play failed to gain and Indy had to punt again after a 2nd straight 3-and-out. The Jets picked up a 1st down, but on 3rd and 8 from the Indy 49, Sanchez missed Holmes and they had to punt it back to the Colts. Sanchez was absolutely dreadful in the first half, throwing high or off the mark to open receivers on seemingly a dozen plays.
Weatherspoon put another punt in the end zone but the Colts soon found themselves facing 3rd and 1 from the 29 for a 3rd straight series. Manning threw for White again but this time it was incomplete and the Colts were 3-and-out for the 3rd time in as many possessions to open the game. On the ensuing Jets possession, New York had a 3rd down at midfield for the 3rd straight drive, this time facing 3rd and 2. Once again, Sanchez failed, overthrowing Holmes by a mile. It was another punt, but finally Weatherspoon kept it in the field of play, forcing a fair catch at the 13.
The Colts took a couple baby steps as well. They got their first 1st down of the game and then converted a 3rd and 1 with a run by Dominic Rhodes as a hideous 1st quarter came to a close. Indy converted another 3rd down and moved into New York territory, but on 3rd and 8 from the 41, Manning threw to Reggie Wayne and he was tackled immediately by Darrelle Revis for a gain of only a yard. It would be his lone catch in the game. The Colts punted again.
The Jets moved into Indy territory on a long reception by Braylon Edwards, but they got forced into 3rd and long and went conservative and had to punt. This time Weatherspoon had plenty of room to work with and still kicked into the end zone for a touchback. On their 5th possession of the game, the Colts converted their 2nd straight 3rd and short, as Rhodes ran for 3 yards on 3rd and 1 from the 40. On the very next play, the Jets busted a coverage and Manning hit Pierre Garcon wide open down the right side for an easy TD bomb of 57 yards. It was a bit reminiscent of the TD to Wayne in the Super Bowl in Miami a few years back. That gave the Colts a 7-0 lead.
After the big play by Indy’s offense, the Jets went on their best drive of the game, converted on a pair of 3rd downs to take the ball inside the red zone. But then Sanchez overthrew Dustin Keller on back to back plays to set up a 3rd and 10 from the 19. Sanchez fired for Keller again but this time he wasn’t open and Justin Tryon intercepted in the end zone. Tryon returned it to the 23 and the Colts took over with just 45 seconds left in the half. They took their 7-0 lead to the locker room.
It was only 7-0 and the Jets would get the ball first in the 2nd half, but Sanchez had been so awful over the first 30 minutes that it was hard to imagine New York would win this game. With that in mind, the Jets began the 3rd quarter showing a concerted effort to run the football. A nice kick return by Antonio Cromartie gave the Jets decent field position, and they ran Shonn Green on 3 consecutive plays for a 1st down. On 3rd and 3 from Indy 43, Sanchez finally hit Keller for a pickup of 20 yards. The drive ended with LT going over on 1st and goal from the 1 to tie the game at 7-7.
Indy also looked better offensively on their first possession of the 2nd half. On 3rd and 9 from midfield, the Colts gave the ball to Addai and it worked, as he picked up 13 yards for a 1st down. But on 3rd and 1 from the 28, Rhodes was stuffed for a loss, bringing up 4th and 2 from the 29. The Colts sent Vinatieri out for the 47 yarder and he nailed it, putting the Colts on top again, 10-7. The Jets stayed with the run on their next possession, and they were on the march and inside Indy territory as the 4th quarter began. On the first play of the final period, Sanchez hit Tomlinson on 3rd and 7 from the Indy 39 and LT picked up 9 yards for a 1st down. On 3rd and 1 from the 21, Sanchez ran for it and picked up 6 for another 1st down. On 1st and goal from the 3, the Jets gave it to Green and he picked up 2 yard to the 1. LT was stopped for no gain on 2nd down. On 3rd and goal from the 1, LT broke into the end zone for the touchdown, putting the Jets on top for the first time in the game.
Now trailing 14-10, the Colts took over at their own 19 with just under 10 minutes to play. They moved swiftly down the field, again using the run game to pick up chunks of yards. On 3rd and 7 from midfield, Rhodes ran for 7 and a 1st down inside New York territory. On 3rd and 8 from the 39, Manning hit Garcon for 21 yards. But on 3rd and 7 from the 15, Rhodes got the ball again and was stopped for a gain of just a yard. This was a strange call. Rhodes had picked up the 1st down on a 3rd and 7 moments earlier, but that was at midfield. It seemed less likely to work inside the red zone. Vinatieri hit a 32 yard field goal to cut the score to 14-13 with just 4:37 to play.
Clinging to a 1-point lead, the Jets looked to run out the clock, but on 3rd and 5 from the 25, Sanchez threw incomplete and the Colts defense had forced a 3-and-out. The Jets punted and White called for a fair catch, but Taj Smith was flagged for running into the punter. This was a total boner, as the 5 yard penalty was just enough to give the Jets a huge 1st down. Now the Colts had to use their first 2 timeouts to stop the clock after back to back runs by New York. On 3rd and 5 from the 35, Sanchez went deep for Edwards and missed him, stopping the clock and bringing up 4th down (again). Incredibly, despite setting up from close to his own 20 yard line, Weatherspoon punted it into the opposite end zone yet again.
The Colts and Peyton Manning had the ball back with 2:39 remaining, down just a point. They got rolling right away, with Manning hitting Justin Tamme for gains of 15 and 11 yards on the first two plays. 12 yard pass to White gave the Colts a 1st down at the edge of field goal range at the 36. With a 3rd and 6 coming up, the Jets wisely used their 1st timeout to stop the clock at the 1:02 mark. Considering Vinatieri’s history with the game on the line, it was not at all a stretch to say that if the Colts converted this 3rd down it would probably mean the game. However, Manning fired low to White for an incomplete pass, stopping the clock and bringing up 4th and 6 from the 32. Not only would Vinatieri now be attempting a long field goal, there would also be time left for the Jets to save themselves if he did in fact make the 50 yard kick. For the one millionth time, Vinatieri was money. The Colts took a 16-14 lead with just 53 seconds remaining.
The Jets did have 2 timeouts remaining and they only needed a FG. Plus, they had been in this type of situation many times during the regular season, and often they had come out on top. However, Sanchez was going to have to lead a last minute drive on the road in the playoffs. It would be tough. He would get help. Throughout Indy’s run of consistent regular season excellence, the Colts have always had holes which have come pack to hurt them at times in big games. One common weakness has been poor kickoff coverage. With Brad Smith apparently not 100%, Cromartie went back to take the kickoff. He received it a yard in the end zone and brought it out. He took it all the way out to the New York 46. It’s amazing how quickly a team can go from life support to the driver’s seat when they need a FG and not a touchdown. Now it was the Colts who needed a play, and Antoine Bethea nearly delivered. On the first play of the drive, Sanchez hit Edwards to his right and Bethea came up and knocked the ball loose. However, Edwards recovered to escape disaster.
The Jets called their 2nd timeout with 40 seconds left, facing a 2nd and 1 from the Indy 45. Holmes caught a pass from Sanchez and got out of bounds at the 34 after a pickup of 11 yards. On 1st down, LT took a handoff and went up the middle, gaining just 2 yards. With less than 35 seconds to go and the clock running, the Jets had a decision to make. They could either hurry to the line and spike the ball, saving a timeout, but meaning they would have to convert a 3rd and 8 to keep the drive going; or they could call their final timeout, making a sack devastating and any play over the middle of the field risky. It was a tough call. Fortunately for them, this tough decision was eliminated by the opposition. Out of the blue, Jim Caldwell called Indy’s final timeout, stopping the clock with 29 seconds left. Suddenly, the Jets’ situation changed drastically. Now they had a down to play with and a timeout in their pocket, meaning the entire field was open. Not only that, they now had a free timeout to think things over and figure out just what they wanted to do.
On 2nd and 8, Sanchez took the shotgun snap and fired down the right side for Edwards, who made the catch at the 14 for an 18 yard pickup. New York let the clock tick down to 3 seconds before calling their final timeout. One final consequence of Caldwell’s unfortunate bout of Teret’s was that he did not have that final timeout to attempt to freeze Nick Folk, a somewhat shaky kicker (just 30 for 39 on the season, including 3 misses from 39 yards or less), who would be attempting just his 2nd career postseason FG. In a familiar sight, Manning watched helplessly from the sidelines. Folk’s 32 yard attempt was true, giving the Jets a 17-16 victory.
While the Colts certainly had a number of chances to win this game, the Jets deserved it just as much as Indy. New York out-gained the Colts 353-312 and had a significant edge in 1st downs (23-16). The Colts had a 219-184 edge in passing yards, but the Jets out-rushed Indy 169-93. New York had a 6 minute edge in TOP. The Jets were 8 of 15 on 3rd down, while the Colts were 6 for 13. Each team had just 1 sack and the Jets committed the only turnover. There were few penalties in the game, with the Jets being charged with 3 for 15 yards and Indy being hit with just 2 for 10 yards. Once again, red zone TD scoring was huge. The Colts failed in their only red zone opportunity, while the Jets went 2 for 4.
Sanchez was just barley good enough, completing only 18 of 31 passes for 189 yards, no TD’s and a pick. LT played a key role in the win, rushing 16 times for 82 yards and a pair of TD’s, while also catching 4 passes for 17 yards. Green rushed 19 times for 70 yards. Edwards made 4 catches for 62 yards and Holmes had 4 catches for 46 yards. Keller made 3 catches for 42 yards. Cromartie came up with 2 nice kick returns, averaging 44 yards. Folk was good on his one, very important FG try. Weatherford was also good once, putting a punt inside the 20. Unfortunately, his other 4 punts each went into the end zone.
For Manning, the playoffs once again ended in an unsatisfactory manner. He completed 18 of 26 passes for 225 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INT’s. Addai carried 13 times for 60 yards. Garcon had a big day, making 5 catches for 112 yards and a TD. White caught 6 passes for 54 yards and Tamme made 5 catches for 46 yards. Reggie Wayne caught just a single pass for 1 yard. Vinatieri was brilliant again, hitting on all 3 field goal tries.
Team Stats and Rankings
New York Jets: For Jets Offense, Defense, and Special Teams stats and rankings see last week’s Wild Card Round Betting Lines entry.
New England Offense: After a year when Tom Brady was knocked out in the first game and a year when he was rusty coming back from the ensuing knee surgery, the Patriots regained their spot at the top of the league in offense. However, this is not the same offense as the one in 2007 that bombed teams along the way to an undefeated regular season. The Pats have morphed yet again, becoming a balanced offensive team, one that might stand up better in the tough playoff games than that nearly perfect team did.
In 2007, the Patriots scored 134 more points than any other team and lead the league in total offense by a million miles. This season, the Pats did end up leading the league in scoring, averaging 32.4 points a game, but they finished just 8th in total offense. This is a more balanced New England offense. Back in 2007 they were far and away the top passing offense in the game. This season they were 11th in passing yards. In ’07, the running game succeeded as a byproduct of the dominant passing attack; it couldn’t stand up on its own. This season the rushing attack is legit and New England was 9th in rushing yards and tied 10th in yards per attempt.
This New England offense isn’t dominant, it’s just ridiculously efficient. They had the fewest picks thrown and the fewest fumbles lost. The Pats led the league in passing TD’s and were tied 2nd in rushing TD’s. They were the 2nd best offense on 3rd down and finished 4th in sacks allowed. They are 5th in completion percentage and 1st in passer rating. Perhaps the most amazing stat about this year’s New England offense is that they were just 23rd in time of possession.
Coming back from knee surgery last year, Tommy Brady was never quite at the top of his game. This season he returned to form. Brady completed 65.9% of his passes for 3900 yards. He threw 36 TD’s against only 4 interceptions, posting a 111.0 passer rating. And Brady compiled these numbers with Randy Moss making only 9 catches and being traded midway through the season. In 2007, the Patriots led the league in scoring as a spread the defense/throw it deep team. This season, the Pats did it with possession receivers, 2 tight ends, and a strong rushing game. Wes Welker, himself returning from knee surgery, led the team with 86 receptions for 848 yards and 7 TD’s. After cutting ties with Moss, the Pats brought Deion Branch back into the fold, and he responded by catching 48 passes for 706 yards and 5 touchdowns. New England’s biggest deep threat is now Brandon Tate, who had 432 yards receiving and 3 TD’s on just 24 catches.
New England’s 2 tight ends—Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski—combined for a season that had to have been among the best for a tight end pair in NFL history. Hernandez had 45 receptions for 563 yards and 6 TD’s, while Gronkowksi had 42 receptions for 546 yards and 10 TD’s. This has been said many times by others, but the New England rushing attack this season really should be referred to as “The Firm.” It’s Ben Jarvis Green Ellis and Woodcock. Green Ellis ran for 1008 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Junior partner Woodcock—cut by the Jets before the season—ran for 547 yards and 5 touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per rush, and caught 34 passes for 379 yards and a TD.
New England Defense: The Patriots defense is similar to the offense in a way. They are strong in the scoring department and in turnovers/negative plays. The Pats allowed 19.6 points a game this season, 8th best in the NFL, and they led the league in interceptions. They finished tied 14th in sacks, and despite being tied 27th in fumbles forced, they were tied 7th in fumbles recovered.
The difference is that the offense, while not dominant, is rock solid in all areas, while the defense has several soft spots. New England was 25th in yards allowed and dead last in the NFL on 3rd down. The Pats were solid against the rush this season, finishing 11th in yards allowed, tied 13th in yards per attempt, and tied 10th in rush TD’s allowed. The Patriots have been hurt by the pass. They were 30th in passing yards allowed and tied 21st in pass TD’s allowed (tied 23rd in opponent’s completion percentage and 13th in opponent’s passer rating).
It is very much a team effort on defense for the Pats. They had 5 players record at least 3 sacks this season and 4 players had at least 3 picks. Patrick Chung is a solid defensive back and a special teams stalwart, grabbing 3 picks this season (taking 1 to the house), and also blocking 2 kicks (returning 1 for a TD). Devin McCourty led the team with 7 INT’s. Kyle Arrington and James Sanders had an INT-TD a piece, and Gary Guyton returned a fumble for a TD and an INT for a TD.
New England Special Teams: The Patriots are solid at special teams. The Pats lost their excellent kicker Stephen Gostkowski early in the year, but still finished 15th in touchback percentage on kickoffs and tied 8th in FG percentage (88%). Veteran Shayne Graham was brought in to replace Gostkowski and has gone 12 for 12 on FG tries. Because the Pats have been so efficient on offense, they really haven’t had to ask much from their place kicking game, and they are just 3 of 5 on kicks of 40+ yards and 0 for 1 on kicks of 50+ yards (Graham hit his only attempt of the year from 40 or more yards out). The Pats are just tied 28th in punts inside the 20, but then, they haven’t punted all that much (Zoltan Mesko is the New England punter, although he sounds like a Persian mobster). They are 17th in kickoff coverage and tied 10th in net punt average. New England is 18th in kick return average and 3rd in punt return average, with Brandon Tate taking a pair of kickoff returns to the house, and Julian Edleman returning a punt for a TD.
Turnovers, Big Plays, Penalties, and Red Zone
New York Jets: See last week’s WC Round entry.
New England: As you might guess, the Patriots are excellent in all of these areas. They led the league in fewest giveaways (9) and most takeaways (36) for a +27 turnover differential (1st). The Patriots got a ton of big plays from their defense and special teams, scoring on a punt return, a fumble return, a blocked field goal, 2 kickoff returns, and 4 INT returns. On the other side, the Patriots allowed 1 kickoff return for a touchdown and no other special teams/defensive scores. New England’s defense was 19th in red zone scoring and the offense was 4th. The Pats are tied 7th in penalties per game and 14th in penalty yards per game.
Injury News
New York Jets: For the second time in 6 weeks the Jets have had a key player go down to an injury in practice just days before a meeting with the Patriots. It was safety Jim Leonhard who suffered a season ending injury during the week leading up to the game with the Pats on Monday night in week 13. This week, starting tackle Damien Woody went down with an Achilles injury and is out for the rest of the season. DB’s Drew Coleman and James Ihedigbo are questionable. Return man Brad Smith is probable with that groin injury, but there’s no way he’ll be 100%.
New England: The Pats defense was not especially deep to begin with and they have lost a boat load of players from that side of the ball to injuries this season. DB Josh Barrett, DL Darryl Richard, safety Brandon McGowan, DB Bret Lockett, starting CB Leigh Bodden, and starting DE Ty Warren all went on IR before the start of the season. Starting tackle Nick Kaczur joined them after one game and RB Kevin Faulk hit the shelf after week 2. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski and starting guard Stephen Neal went down at midseason. Then 3 more members of the defense—CB Johnathan Wilhite, DT Ron Brace, and DT Mike Wright—went down for good over the final 6 weeks of the season.
DT Myron Pryor is questionable for Sunday. LB Tully Banta-Cain sat out week 17 and is questionable for this week. Guard Daniel Connolly is also questionable. TE Aaron Hernandez has missed the last couple of weeks but is probable for this Sunday. The Patriots will also get a couple of defensive players back from suspension this week. DE Brandon Deaderick had been suspended by the team for a violation of team rules, but he was reinstated this week. LB Brandon Spikes has missed the last 4 games due to a substance abuse violation. Both players are available for this Sunday’s contest.
Regular Season Meeting: After a disappointing loss in the season opener, the Jets bounced back in week 2 at home, coming from behind to beat the Patriots 28-14. The Jets had a 23-20 edge in 1st downs and a 336-291 edge in total yards. They won the turnover battle 3-0. Brady threw a pair of interceptions and lost a fumble. The Pats scored first in the game and they scored with 53 seconds left in the 1st half to go up 14-7. The Jets got the ball back and drove into NE territory and hit a FG at the buzzer to cut the score to 14-10 at the half. The Jets had momentum the rest of the way, outscoring the Pats 18-0 in the 2nd half. They went on to win fairly easily, 28-14.
The rematch was set for Monday Night Football in week 13. This time the setting was Foxboro. In the 2nd meeting it was the Patriots who held a 3-0 edge in the turnover battle. They had a 23-18 edge in 1st downs and a 405-301 edge in total yards. Mark Sanchez went just 17 for 33 for 164 yards, 0 TD’s, and 3 picks, posting a passer rating of 27.8.
The Patriots kicked a FG on their opening drive of the game and the Jets missed a FG on their first possession. A big pass interference penalty set up the Pats TD on their 2nd drive. The Jets went 3 and out on their 2nd drive. On the ensuing New England possession, the Pats went for it on 4th and 3 from the 25 and Brady hit Deion Branch for a touchdown to make it 17-0. New York managed a FG early in the 2nd quarter, but on the first play of the ensuing New England possession Danny Woodhead had a catch and run of 35 yards to spark the Pats to another TD drive, making the score 24-3 at the half.
The Jets opened the 3rd quarter with a drive deep into NE territory, but on 2nd and 8 from the 9, Sanchez was picked off. New England marched on a 93-yard drive to make it 31-3 and put it away. Sanchez was picked again on the 2nd play of the next New York drive, and the Pats went on a 94-yard drive, scoring on the first play of the 4th quarter to make it 38-3. Sanchez was intercepted again on the ensuing Jets possession, and after a big return, the Pats scored once more to make it 45-3. The beat down was complete and thorough.
Series History: Most New York-Boston rivalries have long and storied histories. This one has only become intense over the last 20 or so years, but it hasn’t taken long to get very hot. The all-time series is deadlocked at 51-51-1, although the Pats are 2-0 against the Jets in the playoffs. While most people would agree that this currently the ugliest rivalry in football, one reason many people are not yet ready to call this the best rivalry in football is that it’s been a bit one-sided recently. The Pats have won 15 of the last 20 against the Jets. They have won 7 of the last 9 in Foxboro. The Jets have managed to win 2 of the last 5 in this series.
This will be the 3rd playoff meeting between the two teams. The first was way back in the wild card round of 1985, a magical year for the Patriots. New England eked into the playoffs as the #5 seed (only 5 teams from each conference at that time) and they had to go to New York, but they pulled off a 26-14 win. It was just the 2nd playoff win in franchise history and the first since 1963. They would end up winning 3 straight road playoff games to reach the Super Bowl for the first time. Their magical run would end in the Super Bowl, as the 85 Bears shuffled over them 46-10. The other playoff battle between the Jets and Pats was in the 2006 wild card round. The Pats were home for this one and they rolled over New York, 37-16.
This might not be the best current NFL rivalry, but it’s probably the most complicated. It goes way beyond being neighbors and division foes. Stick with me here, it gets a little complicated. It begins with the other New York team, the Football Giants. In 1990, the G-Men shocked the world by ending the 3-peat dreams of the 49ers, and then stopped the high powered Bills in Super Bowl XXV, winning 20-19 on Scott Norwood’s missed FG attempt. It was the 2nd Super Bowl in 5 years for Bill Parcells’ team, but the coach would step down soon after the season ended. In the wake of the win over Buffalo, the guy being credited for the master defensive game plan was assistant coach Bill Belichick. It ended up getting him the head coaching job in Cleveland. He would coach in Cleveland for 5 seasons, achieving underwhelming success (only 1 playoff trip).
Meanwhile, Parcells returned to the game in 1993 as the head coach of the New England Patriots. The franchise was in awful shape when he arrived and they went just 5-11 that first year, the 5th consecutive double digit loss season. But the following season they reached the playoffs for the first time since 1986.
Unfortunately, they lost in the opening round of the playoffs to Bill Belichick’s Browns. The next season the Pats slid back to 6-10. Belichick’s time with Cleveland ended following that 1995 season and he reunited with Parcels in New England for the 1996 season as a defensive assistant. The Patriots would go 11-5 and reach the Super Bowl that season.
However, despite the success, the relationship between Parcells and owner Robert Kraft had become soured. Parcells felt like he had turned the team around and he didn’t like the fact that he did not have more control over the roster. During the postseason run of 1996, Parcels was having behind the scenes discussions with the New York Jets. It is believed that Parcells had already agreed in secret to become the Jets head coach before the Super Bowl loss to the Packers. Parcells resigned days after the season ended and would eventually take the head coaching job for the Jets, bringing many of his assistant coaches—including Belichick—along with him. Kraft protested that Parcels had still been under contract and the commissioner ruled that there would have to be compensation. In the end, New York would have to go the Pats 4 draft picks from various years and rounds in exchange for the Tuna.
In one of the many interesting twists and turns in this saga, Pete Carroll, who had been defensive coordinator with the Jets from 1990-1993 and head coach for 1994, was hired to replace Parcells as head coach of the Patriots. Also joining Parcells and Belichick in New York would be assistant coach Eric Mangini. Mangini had been an assistant coach under Belichick with the Browns in 1995. He had stayed with the Browns (now the Ravens) in 1996 when Belichick was gone, but in 1997 he joined the Jets staff with Belichick and Tuna.
The Jets were in as bad shape as the Patriots had been, but in Parcells’ first year on the job they went 9-7 for their first winning record since 1988. They next year they went 12-4 and reached the AFC Championship Game before losing to John Elway’s Broncos. In 1999, the Jets fell to 8-8 and failed to reach the playoffs. Once again, Parcells decided to let go of the reigns. Before announcing that he would step down, Parcells had already agreed with Jets management to stay on as general manager with Bill Belichick being handed “the keys to the car” as head coach.
A day after this was all announced, a press conference was scheduled to introduce Belichick as the new head coach. That’s when it got interesting. Moments before he took the podium, Belichick scribbled a 1-sentence resignation onto a piece of paper, and then spoke to the press for 30 minutes trying to explain his strange behavior. Eventually, Belichick would be named as head coach of the New England Patriots. The Jets were upset, including Parcells. They protested that Belichick had been under contract and again the comish agreed, forcing the Pats to give the Jets a #1 draft pick as compensation. Belichick would be replacing Carroll, who had taken the Pats to the playoffs twice in 3 seasons from 1997-1999. Going along with Belichick to New England would be Eric Mangini.
Parcells would remain with the Jets as general manager for just that 1 season before retiring again. Meanwhile, Belichick’s first season in New England did not go well, as they went 5-11 for their worst season since they had gone 5-11 in Parcells’ first season there. 2001 started badly as well. Or at least that’s how seemed at the time.
The Pats lost the opener to Cincinnati. Then the Jets came to town in week 2. It was early in that game that one of the most important plays in Patriots history occurred. Franchise QB Drew Bledsoe was scrambling outside the pocket near the sideline when LB Mo Lewis decked him. Bledsoe was knocked out of the game and it was feared he would be out for many weeks to come. Unheralded 2nd year QB Tom Brady had to enter the game, having played in only 1 in his career. The Patriots would lose the game and it seemed their season was already over. In fact, their dynasty had just begun.
With Brady playing QB the Patriots would win 5 of their next 7 games. However, Bledsoe eventually healed. Belichick then made the highly controversial—and extremely unpopular locally—decision to keep Brady as the starter even after Bledsoe was ready to play again. It got ugly, with Bledsoe openly showing his disgust. It was the right call. The Patriots would beat the Jets in week 14 and that ended up giving them the division title with an 11-5 record, a game better than the 10-6 Jets. We all know the story from here.
The next chapter in the Jets-Pats soap opera occurred in 2006. After both New England coordinators moved on to head coaching jobs following the 2004 season, Eric Mangini was promoted to DC in 2005. After 1 year in that position, Mangini was hired to become the head coach of (guess) the Jets in 2006. It was a move that apparently did not sit well with Belichick. But it was in 2007 that things got really nasty. Following an early season blowout of the Jets by the Patriots, Mangini and the Jets alerted the NFL to the fact that the Patriots were taping the Jets signal callers against league policy. This was the start of the “Spygate” controversy. Things would remain ugly for the next few years.
Mangini was eventually fired in New York after the 2008 season. Surprisingly, he would quickly be hired as the head coach of the Cleveland Browns. The guy he replaced? Romeo Crennel, who had been the coach in Cleveland from 2005-2008, and was the same guy Mangini had replaced as DC of the Patriots in 2005.
Team Playoff Histories
New York Jets: The Jets are in the playoffs for a 2nd straight year and the 14th time in franchise history (3rd trip in the last 5 years, 6th in the last 10). The Jets are now 11-12 all-time in the playoffs. They are 6-9 on the road. New York has a 3-4 record in the divisional round (2-3 on the road). The Jets are now 2 for 2 making the playoffs in the Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez era and they are 3-1 so far in playoff games (all on the road). They are 1-0 in the divisional round (1-0 on the road). This is LaDainian Tomlinson’s first year with the Jets and his 6th playoff appearance. While he has been injured in several of his playoff appearances, LT’s teams are now 4-4 in the postseason. While he has 6 TD’s in 8 career playoff games, he has rushed for 100+ yards only once (123 yards in the 2006 divisional round against the Patriots).
New England: This is the 18th postseason appearance for the Patriots (all since 1976) and the 12th since 1994 (8th in the last 10 years). They are 21-14 all-time in the playoffs and 11-2 at home. The Pats are 8-5 in the divisional round and 5-1 at home in the divisional round. They are 10-7 in their opening game of the postseason. Last year’s loss at home to the Ravens in the wild card round snapped an 11-game win streak in home playoff games for the Pats (only other home playoff loss came in 1978). It was the first time the Pats went one-and-done in the postseason since 1998. They had won 6 consecutive opening playoff games prior to last season. This is the 8th trip to the playoffs for New England in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era and the Pats have a 14-4 record during that time, going 8-1 at home. They are 5-1 in the divisional round (4-0 at home). The Belichick/Brady Pats are 6-1 in their opening playoff game. Belichick is in the playoffs for the 9th time as an NFL coach. Overall he is 15-5 in the playoffs (9-1 at home) and 5-2 in the divisional round (4-0 at home). His teams are 7-1 in their opening game of the playoffs.
Keys to the Game: The Patriots aren’t invincible and they aren’t perfect. We’ve learned that during the 6 years since their last Super Bowl win. Still, I can’t imagine the Jets will win this game. New England is playing at home where they rarely lose. They have a gigantic edge in coaching and at the QB position. Special teams is probably a wash. New York has lost several key players who simply can’t be replaced. The Jets strength is on defense, but I don’t see them being able to shutdown the New England offense. New England’s weakness is defense, but they should be able to contain the Jets offensively.
If the Jets are going to pull off a shocker they will need to do what no one else has been able to do over the last few months: slow down the New England offense. We know that the Giants were able to control that 2007 offense in the Super Bowl, but the Jets don’t have the pieces to pressure Brady without blitzing the way the G-Men did in that game. The Jets will have to hope that the Patriots make some uncharacteristic mistakes. They’ll also have to come up huge in the red zone. Fluky things like that would have to happen for the Jets to significantly slow down the New England offense.
Another key for the Jets will be controlling the ball and keeping New England’s offense off the field. That means they have to run the ball. Mark Sanchez needs to be a game manager. And he’s got to play much better than he did last week.
The Patriots just have to keep doing what they’ve been doing. And I think that might be the biggest key of all: the only way the Jets win this game is if the Patriots lose it.
Ranking every World Series in MLB history
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Scandals, scapegoats, superstars and, yes, the Yankees. Sam Miller judges
every October since 1903.
3 years ago
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