Thursday, March 22, 2012

The NFL Blog: 2011 Horse Collar Awards Part III (NFC Awards)

NFC Awards


The Randy Moss Award

NFC Offensive Rookie of the Year

Winner: Cam Newton-QB-Carolina

Runner-up: Julio Jones-WR-Atlanta

Third Place: Doug Baldwin-WR-Seattle

Comments: This was a no-brainer in terms of the award winner. Some questioned whether Cam Newton would ever really succeed in the NFL despite being taken #1 overall by the Panthers. That really doesn’t guarantee you anything as we all know. Personally, I think the doubts about Newton were totally valid considering the turmoil that had followed his college career.

He had won the Heisman and the National Championship but you had to wonder if he was mature enough to be an NFL player. And I always wonder if a run/pass combo type QB is going to make it because playing against college defenses is so different from playing against NFL defenses. However, it didn’t take long for everyone to understand that adjusting to the NFL wouldn’t be a problem for Newton. Would the NFL be able to adjust to Newton was the real question.

Newton exploded onto the scene in the first two weeks of the season. Newton’s career began like many other rookie QB’s in a way. He lost his first two games, during which time he threw a combined 4 picks and took a total of 8 sacks. Those are the type of numbers that many QB’s have posted in their first 2 NFL games. However, most rookie QB’s do not also throw for over 400 yards in each of their first 2 games, in addition to scoring a rushing TD in each of their first 2 games.

Newton would go on to put up unheard of numbers for a rookie and almost unheard of for anyone in terms of the run/pass combo. He completed 60.0% of his passes for 4051 yards, 20 TD against 17 INT, and an 84.5 rating. Additionally, Newton ran for 706 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and scored 14 rushing TD’s while losing only 2 fumbles. Just for fun Newton also caught a pass for 27 yards. Passing, rushing, and receiving Newton combined for 4788 yards and 31 TD’s. He threw for 253.2 yards per game and averaged 299.3 yards of total offense per game (receiving, rushing, and passing). Obviously, Newton was the top offensive rookie in the conference.

The Falcons gave up a lot to draft Julio Jones in one of the more questionable draft trades in recent memory. It took a while for Jones to get going but eventually he started to show why the Falcons had put so much stock in him, even if it was still a terrible move. Julio ended up posting very solid numbers for a rookie WR despite playing in only 13 games (really only 12) due to injury. He caught 54 passes for 959 yards and 8 TD’s, averaging 17.8 yards per catch.

The Falcons were manhandled by the Giants in the WC round, but Julio managed to catch 7 passes for 64 yards, and he also ran once for 13 yards. Julio had no chance to top Newton this year but in many other seasons he would have won this award.

The third place offensive rookie was a surprise. Doug Baldwin—an undrafted rookie WR out of Stanford—came out of nowhere to become a major threat for Seattle this season. Baldwin played in all 16 games for the Seahawks and caught 51 passes for 788 yards and 4 TD’s. He had 19 catches for 20+ yards. Baldwin returned a kickoff 37 yards and also blocked a punt for Seattle.


The Isiah Robertson Award

NFC Defensive Rookie of the Year

Winner: Aldon Smith-OLB-San Francisco

Runner-up: Patrick Peterson-CB-Arizona

Third Place: Richard Sherman-CB-Seattle

Comments: The Niners took Aldon Smith with the #7 overall pick in the draft and you only have to watch him play once to see exactly why. The guy is a beast. He’s young but he’s definitely not scared. He also presumably has room to grow. The kid only played 21 games in 2 college seasons and got no training camp in his rookie season in the pros. Yet he came out and recorded 14 sacks for San Francisco, a half sack shy of tying the NFL rookie record (of course sacks haven’t always been an official sack but still). No other NFC rookie had more than 7.5 sacks this year. Smith also recorded a sack in both of SF’s playoff games. During the regular season he had 1 stuff, 2 FF, 1 FR, and 4 PD.

Patrick Peterson was the NFL’s “Honey Badger” this year, making plays similar to his former college teammate Tyron Mathieu. Taken by the Cardinals with the #5 pick out of LSU, Peterson held his own at CB in his rookie year, recording 59 Solo, 1 Sack, 2 FR, 13 PD, and 2 picks. But it was as a punt returner that Peterson really shined.

That’s actually understating it. He was electric as a punt return man and that’s why he’s the runner-up in this award. Peterson posted a 15.9 yard average and had 8 returns of 20+. But what made him scary was the big play ability. He had 5 returns of 40+ and 4 PR touchdowns. He was easily the most dangerous return man we’ve seen since Devin Hester’s prime a few years ago. Returning punts wasn’t Peterson’s only special teams skill. He also blocked 2 kicks.

Richard Sherman is another one that you’re probably not going to see in most award blogs. But the guy earned this spot, despite being drafted about 150 selections after the two guys ahead of him for this award. Sherman played in every game for the Seahawks and recorded 46 Solo and 1 FF. He led all NFC rookies with 17 PD and 4 picks.


The Eric Dickerson Award

NFC Rookie of the Year

Winner: Cam Newton-QB-Carolina

Runner-up: Aldon Smith-OLB-San Francisco

Third Place: Julio Jones-WR-Atlanta

Comments: Cam Newton is the obvious choice here. I went with Aldon Smith over Julio Jones for runner-up because he had a bigger impact on the game. It’s unusual for a rookie to be that big of a force on defense.


The Mike Singletary Award

NFC Defensive Player of the Year

Winner: Jared Allen-DE-Minnesota

Runner-up: Jason Pierre-Paul-DE-New York Giants

Third Place: Brandon Browner-CB-Seattle

Comments: After a somewhat quiet 2010, Jared Allen didn’t get a lot of publicity this season, as the Vikings were really never in contention for anything. It’s remarkable how little buzz Allen got this season because he actually had a monster year. Allen recorded 66 Tot, 48 Solo, and led the NFC with 22 Sacks (2.5 more than the next best player). Allen was a force of destruction in backfields, recording 4 FF, 4 FR, 1 INT, and a Safety. He also had 5.5 Stuffs and 3 PD.

Only Allen’s fantastic season could keep Jason Pierre-Paul from taking this award. JPP was probably the breakthrough defensive player of the year. He came relatively out of nowhere to become one of the most disruptive defensive players in the game this season. JPP racked up 86 Tot, 66 Solo, and 16.5 Sacks (4th best in the NFC). He also had 7 Stuffs, 2 FF, 6 PD, and a huge blocked FG.

Pierre-Paul was already having a great season when he put together back to back dominant games in weeks 14 and 15. Stats don’t really do justice to his performance in NYG’s comeback win over the Cowboys in Dallas in week 14. He was in on 8 tackles (6 solo) and recorded 2 Sacks, 1 FF, and blocked Dallas’ FG try to seal New York’s biggest win of the season. The Giants took a step back with a disappointing loss to the Skins a week later but it wasn’t because JPP didn’t do everything in his power to stop it. The guy had a sack, a stuff, 11 solo tackles, and 16 total tackles in the game.

Pierre-Paul didn’t make a lot of noise in the playoffs as a sack-man but he still contributed. In NYG’s 4 playoff wins, JPP recorded 15 solo tackles, a half sack, 3.5 stuffs, and 4 PD. Plus, with teams focusing in on Pierre-Paul, his teammates were freed up to do a lot of damage. You can’t always show with stats the difference that he makes drawing double teams and as a “pass changer.” JPP is special in that he’s not just a pass rusher. He makes dynamic plays as a run stopper and is a huge force getting in the QB’s line of vision.

Brandon Browner is another one of those guys that you aren’t going to see in most award blogs. In contrast to the AFC, there were many NFC guys who had excellent individual seasons. After Allen and JPP there were a number of guys who had seasons good enough to be a solid third place for this award. I ended up going with Browner and he was certainly worthy even if most folks haven’t heard of him. Even most experts probably didn’t know much about the guy going into this season.

That’s probably another reason I went with Browner. You see, Browner is a “first year player” but according to NFL guidelines he’s not technically a “rookie.” This is because Browner was drafted in 2005 by the Broncos. He broke his arm during camp and never played for Denver. He was released at the end of camp in 2006 and ended up playing 4 years in the CFL before the Seahawks signed him last offseason.

In his first season in the NFL, Browner recorded 51 Solo and intercepted 6 passes (tied 2nd in the NFC). Browner made the most of his picks, returning 2 for scores (tied 1st in NFC) and racking up a total of 220 INT return yards (2nd in NFC). But it wasn’t just a fluky turnover thing. Browner also led the NFC in PD with 23.

It’s too bad Browner couldn’t earn recognition in the rookie of the year voting but the NFL has to draw the line somewhere. I don’t mind that they don’t consider guys who played in the CFL rookies. Guys are considered rookies in MLB and the NBA who have already had careers in other pro leagues and it’s kind of silly. Still, it does seem weird that a player can only win rookie of the year honors in his draft class year. That means a guy who misses his first year due to injury can’t win it the next year. Either way, at least Browner is getting some recognition in this widely read publication.


The Barry Sanders Award

NFC Offensive Player of the Year

Winner: Aaron Rodgers-QB-Green Bay

Runner-up: Drew Brees-QB-New Orleans

Third Place: Calvin Johnson-WR-Detroit

Comments: There were a lot of great individual offensive seasons turned in by NFC players but these 3 really stood out. Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a championship in 2010. This year Rodgers directed the Packers to an NFL best 15-1 record while again proving to be one of the best QB’s in the game, if not the best. There was a point during the season (before Green Bay started to falter down the stretch) when you really couldn’t argue against Rodgers being the top QB in all of football.

In 15 games, Rodgers completed 68.3% (2nd in the NFC) of his passes for 4643 yards and 45 TD (2nd) against only 6 picks. He had by far the best TD-INT ratio in the NFC. Rodgers also led the NFC in Yards per Attempt and QB Rating with a sparkling 122.5. He was 4th in total passing yards and 3rd in yards per game at 309.5.

Part of what makes Rodgers so difficult to stop is that he can make plays with his legs as well as his arm. Rodgers isn’t known as a run/pass combo QB in the mold of Michael Vick or Cam Newton but he’s actually one of the more capable running QB’s in the league. This season he ran for a total of 257 yards (3rd best among NFC QB’s) and 3 TD’s, averaging 4.3 yards per attempt without fumbling once on rushing attempts.

Rodgers was the best QB this season in terms of taking care of the ball. He fumbled only 4 total times and didn’t lose a single fumble while throwing just 6 total picks.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers did not play their best game of the season in the playoffs. Facing the Giants at home in the divisional round, Rodgers completed 26 of 46 pass attempts for 264 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception, posting just a 78.5 rating. Rodgers did rush 7 times for 66 yards but he lost a fumble. The Packers wound up losing 37-20.

Drew Brees had another spectacular season in 2011, directing one of the most unstoppable offenses in the NFL. Brees led the Saints to a 13-3 record and another NFC South title. In the process, Brees broke Dan Marino’s single season passing record with 5476 yards.

Obviously Brees led the NFC in passing yards and yards per game (342.2). Brees also led the NFC in completion percentage (71.2%) and touchdowns (46). Brees did fire 14 picks but a 46-14 TD-INT ratio isn’t exactly poor. Drew Brees was 3rd in the NFC in yards per attempt and 2nd in the NFC in rating with a strong 110.6 mark.

Brees isn’t the rushing threat that Rodgers is but he still managed to rush for 86 yards (4.1 avg) and a TD with only 1 fumble lost. Brees also moves well in the pocket and is hard to sack (only 24 all season).

Brees and the Saints were at home for their WC round game against the Lions and Detroit just couldn’t contain them. Brees had a stellar day, going 33 of 43 for 466 yards, 3 TD’s, and no picks, posting a 134.4 rating. He did lose a fumble but the Saints won convincingly, 45-28.

In the divisional round the Saints went to San Francisco to face the defensive minded Niners, and despite having nearly everything go wrong in the 1st quarter they very nearly came away with the win. Brees fired 63 passes, completing 40 of them for 462 yards and 4 TD’s against a pair of interceptions. Despite the turnovers Brees still posted a 93.5 rating, but Alex Smith and the Niners won in the end, 36-32.

Obviously this award was going to go to Rodgers or Brees and it was very close. I went with Rodgers for several reasons. He had easily the best TD-INT ratio and had a much better rating. In addition, while Brees’ overall numbers are gaudy, part of the reason he’s able to put up those eye popping totals is that he gets so many chances to throw. Brees played 1 more game than Rodgers and averaged 7.6 more pass attempts per game.

Rodgers and the Packers came up short in the playoffs, but that doesn’t overshadow the fact that they were the best in the game during the regular season. Brees became a popular choice towards the end of the season but for my awards it’s not just about finishing strong. In terms of the season as a whole, Rodgers was the top player in the NFC.

Brees and Rodgers separated themselves from the rest of the pack in the NFC but there were a number of other guys who had stellar offensive seasons. However, for me the choice of Calvin Johnson for third place was fairly easy.

Considering the reputation he had in college at Georgia Tech and the hype surrounding him during his first few years as a pro, I really felt like Johnson was a tad overrated heading into this season. But this year with a healthy Matt Stafford throwing the ball for Detroit, Johnson simply took over and proved to be without a doubt the most dangerous and dominant receiver in the NFC.

Johnson caught 96 passes (3rd best in the NFC) in 2011, amassing an NFC best 1681 yards and 16 TD’s. Johnson averaged 105.1 yards per game (best in the NFC) and 17.5 yards per reception (7th), while also leading the NFC in Yards After Catch with 524.

The man folks call “Megatron” is both a dependable 3rd down and red zone receiver and one of the most dangerous deep threats in the game. He tied for 1st in the conference in 1st down receptions (77) and led the NFC in both 20+ receptions (32) and 40+ receptions (10). He fumbled only once all season.

Johnson was the driving force behind Detroit’s 5-0 start to the season, catching a TD pass in all 5 games, including 2 apiece in the first 4 games. CJ also came up big in Detroit’s losing effort against New Orleans in the playoffs. Johnson gave the Lions a chance and kept them in the game into the 2nd half, catching 12 passes for 211 yards and a pair of TD’s in the 45-28 defeat. Including the playoff game, Johnson topped the 200 yard mark in 3 of his final 4 games.


The Don Hutson Award

NFC Most Valuable Player

Winner: Aaron Rodgers-QB-Green Bay

Runner-up: Drew Brees-QB-New Orleans

Third Place: Calvin Johnson-WR-Detroit

Comments: Although Jared Allen had a truly outstanding year and Jason Pierre-Paul became one of the more disruptive defensive forces in recent memory, I have the 3 offensive players in the top spots for the MVP of the NFC. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees were obvious choices. I ended up going with Calvin Johnson for third place because he was just such a stud all year long. No one was ever really able to stop him even when the defense’s entire focus was on doing just that.


The Bill Walsh Award

NFC Coach of the Year

Winner: Jim Harbaugh-San Francisco

Runner-up: Tom Coughlin-New York Giants

Third Place: Jim Schwartz-Detroit

Comments: This ended up being a tough call because of what Tom Coughlin’s Giants did in running the table in the playoffs for the 2nd time in 5 years. 25 years from now young fans will likely know Coughlin as a Hall-of-Fame coach who won (at least) 2 Super Bowl championships. What most of them probably won’t understand is just how different history would have remembered him if Giants management had listened to Tiki Barber (and Michael Strahan to be honest) and gotten rid of Coughlin prior to that 2007 run.

But all of that is not really the subject matter at hand. For the 2011 season, even though Coughlin’s team made another remarkable turnaround to win a championship, the top coach award for the NFC belongs to Jim Harbaugh.

College coaches don’t have a great history in the NFL (recently they’ve had a bad history), but Harbaugh was always really a pro guy who happened to have the enthusiasm and presence that works in the college game. Thus there were many who felt that Harbaugh was the right man to take over in San Francisco.

However, I don’t think anyone (outside of maybe Harbaugh himself) expected the Niners to go from consistent losers to legit championship contenders in Harbaugh’s first season on the job. The SF defense was the driving force, but the change in Alex Smith’s game was also key, and Harbaugh has to get some credit for the QB’s best season ever.

Plus, Harbaugh got these guys to play in a way that no other coach had been able to. He led them to a 13-3 record, as they sustained their great play after a surprising start. He led them to their dramatic playoff win over the Saints, and had Ted Ginn Jr. been healthy (meaning Kyle Williams would not have been returning kicks) the 49ers might just have knocked off Coughlin’s Giants in the NFC title game.

The choice of Jim Schwartz for third place wasn’t a hard one for me. The Lions became a sexy pick to have a good year following the end of the lockout, but people have proclaimed them as a “sleeper” many times over the years and they had always sucked as usual until this year. Schwartz is a hot head to be sure but you have to give him some credit for leading this team to a double digit win season and a playoff berth.

It looked like things might be slipping away for Detroit at one point, with Ndamukong Suh suspended and their record sitting at 7-5 after getting off to a 5-0 start. But Schwartz and the Lions wouldn’t allow the season to go down the tubes. They pulled together and won 3 straight games to secure that playoff bid.


The Bobby Beathard Award

NFC Front Office of the Year

Winner: San Francisco 49ers

Runner-up: New Orleans Saints

Third Place: Seattle Seahawks

Comments: Obviously Jim Harbaugh deserves a lot of credit for SF’s turnaround. He was a big part of it, but management played a big role as well. The Niners went through a complete overhaul last year, hiring a new GM, a new head coach in Harbaugh, new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and 5 other new assistant coaches.

Nobody has a perfect draft. You just hope to hit on a few picks and the Niners were able to do that, starting with taking LB Aldon Smith with the #7 overall pick. Smith would be a major force in his rookie season and help make the Niners perhaps the best defensive team in football. 3rd round pick CB Chris Culliver also contributed.

In the 4th round the Niners drafted RB Kendall Hunter to back up the frequently overworked Frank Gore. Hunter filled that role well, also becoming a nice change-of-pace option, rushing for 473 yards and catching passes for an additional 195 yards. The Niners found a hidden gem in the 7th round, taking Central Florida LB Bruce Miller, who they turned into a fullback.

The Niners also found some key pieces in free agency. Again, not every move worked out, but some of the moves paid off big time. They signed the ancient kicker David Akers, who would set records in his first year with San Fran. CB Carlos Rodgers and safety Dante Whitner upgraded the secondary, while LB Larry Grant also contributed. Finally, former Saints center Jonathan Goodwin was signed and he would end up starting every game of the year for the 49ers at guard.

The Saints are the runner-up for this award but their story is obviously not the same as San Francisco’s. New Orleans was already an established power but they were able to make some nice offseason moves that only made them more dangerous both in 2011 and for the future. It was about quality not quantity for the Saints.

They had 2 picks late in the 1st round of the draft and grabbed a couple of players who contributed in 2011 and should be key players in the years to come. DE Cameron Jordan started in 15 games, while RB Mark Ingram rushed for 474 yards and 5 TD’s before injuries derailed his season.

It was in the free agency market that the Saints really excelled. Their biggest homerun was signing Darren Sproles to replace the departing Reggie Bush. In the New Orleans offense Sproles was a terror, rushing for 603 yards and 2 TD’s (averaging 6.9 yards per attempt) and catching 86 passes for 710 yards and 7 touchdowns. He also averaged 27.2 yards as a kick returner and 10.1 yards as a punt returner (taking 1 punt to the house). In total, Sproles contributed 2696 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns in the regular season, and then continued to produce in the playoffs.

The Saints also signed DT’s Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers to shore up the defensive interior line. In addition, they unloaded some worthless baggage in TE Jeremy Shockey. Finally, when kicker Garrett Hartley got hurt again the Saints signed veteran John Kasay, who ended up having a solid season.

The Seattle Seahawks looked pretty bad early on in the 2011 season, but they made a run in the 2nd half and at the end of the year they were playing very good football. When Seattle was 2-6 I certainly did not expect that I would be writing positive things about them in my awards blog. I certainly never would have imagined I’d be praising the job done by Seattle’s front office, as they looked like a mess at that time. What’s amazing is that Seattle was able to make the run from 2-6 to 7-9 (losing their last two games by a combined 5 points) despite horrid injury luck.

Seattle’s story is completely different from both the Niners and Saints in terms of why they ended up being mentioned for this award. The Seahawks didn’t hit homeruns with their high profile moves. What they did was make a whole lot of good, under-the-radar moves in a wide variety of ways.

2011 was a repeat of 2010, when the Seahawks made more transactions than any other team, although this season much of it was due to injuries rather than attempting to overhaul the team. What’s crazy about having Seattle mentioned for this award is that none of their 3 “big” free agent signees really ended up working out and 3 of their top 4 draft picks had their seasons ended by injury.

With their 1st and 3rd round picks the Seahawks attempted to rebuild the right side of the O-line, drafting tackle James Carpenter and guard John Moffitt. Both players started 9 games for the Seahawks before suffering season ending injuries. WR Kris Durham, Seattle’s 4th pick, was only able to play in 3 games due to injuries.

As I mentioned before, the Seahawks made 3 free agent acquisitions that were expected to be key components of the team. The most important—and least popular—move was bringing in former Vikings QB Tarvaris Jackson to replace the departing Matt Hasselbeck. Many people were convinced that Tarvaris Jackson wasn’t NFL material, and most people thought that at any rate he wasn’t someone you wanted as your starting QB. To say that Jackson had a “good” season in Seattle would be going way too far. What can be said is that he wasn’t a total disaster. He ended up going 7-7 as a starter and finishing with a higher QB rating than Josh Freeman, Rex Grossman, and Sam Bradford in the NFC.

Seattle’s riskiest and most expensive free agent acquisition was another former Vikings player, WR Sidney Rice. After an injury plagued 2010 season, Rice came to Seattle and had an injured plagued 2011 season, playing 9 games and catching 32 passes for 484 yards and 2 TD. It may be too soon to tell if Rice is a total FA bust. He had 2 poor seasons in Minnesota with Jackson at QB before having his only good season with Brett Favre in 2009. Perhaps a better QB will have Rice playing better again in the years to come.

Finally, the FA signing that got the most positive reviews was TE Zach Miller. Miller started 15 games for Seattle, but he was barely noticeable, catching only 25 passes for 233 yards and no touchdowns. Again, Miller might do better with another QB.

Despite all of the injuries and disappointing acquisitions, Seattle got to 7-9 in large part due to the low key moves that they made, and that’s why they wound up in third place for this award. The offseason began with the hiring of a new OC and 3 other new assistant coaches. They wanted to focus on the offensive line in the draft, but as mentioned earlier, injuries derailed that plan. Throughout the rest of the offseason the Seahawks continued to shore up the offensive line.

Paying attention to the OL ended up paying off, as they would need a whole lot of different guys to piece together the unit as the season progressed. Seattle signed guard Robert Gallery and he ended up starting 12 games, while tackle Paul McQuistan played in all 16 games and started 10.

The Seahawks picked up a couple of defensive pieces late in the draft. In the 4th round the Seahawks grabbed LB KJ Wright who would be a contributor during the 2011 season. However, it was in the 5th round that the Seahawks made their best pick, drafting CB Richard Sherman, who would have an excellent rookie season, as already detailed in this blog.

Very early in the offseason the Seahawks found a hidden gem, signing former CFL CB Brandon Browner. Browner’s excellent season has already been recounted in this blog. The Seahawks pulled out one other “first year player” diamond from the rough, signing WR Doug Baldwin as an undrafted free agent. Baldwin’s surprising season has also already been mentioned in this blog.

Seattle signed DT Alan Branch who would be a contributor, along with safety Atari Bigby who was picked up late in the offseason. Just before the start of the season the Seahawks traded away former 1st round pick CB Kelly Jennings (perhaps they knew what they had in Browner and Sherman) in exchange for DT Clifton McDonald. McDonald and Branch were key players on the D-line for Seattle in 2011. Early on in the season the Seahawks signed DE Anthony Hargrove, another contributor. The Seahawks waived the aging kicker Jeff Reed and signed Steven Hauschka who had a fine season.

Finally, during the low point in the season for Seattle, they traded away LB Aaron Curry, a former “can’t miss” top 10 pick who had never developed. The Seahawks only got back a couple of late round picks from the Raiders, but if Seattle can use those picks to find a couple more diamonds in the rough it will be worth it.


The Garrison Hearst Award

NFC Comeback Player of the Year

Winner: Alex Smith-QB-San Francisco

Runner-up: Tony Romo-QB-Dallas

Third Place: Marshawn Lynch-RB-Seattle

Comments: For the NFC comeback award I ended up going with the breakthrough season first; then the star coming back from a season ending injury; and finally the talented player coming back from a disappointing turn in his career.

Alex Smith’s story is well known by fans. There were 2 QB’s considered to be excellent prospects in the 2005 draft. One was Aaron Rodgers of California and the other was Smith from Utah. The San Francisco 49ers had finally bottomed out after one of the great runs in American sports history and they had the first pick in that year’s draft. SF ended up taking Smith #1 overall.

During the time leading up to the draft it was thought that Smith and Rodgers could be the first two players selected, but as often happens, when Rodgers wasn’t taken with the #2 pick (Miami) he fell. It turned into one of those embarrassing moments for Rodgers, who ended up being drafted with the 24th pick by the Green Bay Packers. Who knows how far he’d have fallen if the Packers hadn’t taken him. What this meant for Rodgers was that he wouldn’t be playing for a while, as the indestructible Brett Favre was still the man in Green Bay and he would be presumably until he retired (we all know how that story went.)

As it turned out, we wouldn’t know the answer to the question of “did San Francisco choose the right guy” for several years. Rogers took snaps in garbage time over his first 3 seasons, while Smith struggled as a starter in San Francisco. Alex Smith wasn’t just struggling on the field; he was struggling to stay on the field. Shoulder injuries caused him to miss several games in each of his first 3 seasons and all of the 2008 season, which happened to be Aaron Rodgers’ first season as a starter in Green Bay.

The Niners were expected to release Smith before the 2009 season but he ended up restructuring his contract to stay with the club for the next 2 years. That season, while Rodgers was showing the world why the Packers had enough faith in him to turn away Favre, Smith was working under his 5th different offensive coordinator in 5 seasons and battling scrub QB’s for the starting spot.

In 2010, Rodgers won the Super Bowl with the Packers, while Smith suffered through another disappointing season which saw his head coach and his 6th offensive coordinator in 6 seasons get canned. Upon being fired, head coach Mike Singletary remarked that “you gotta have a quarterback.” In week 13 of that season, Rodgers and the Packers whipped up on the Niners while Smith watched from the sidelines, having been benched in favor of Troy Smith.

Alex Smith was again troubled by shoulder injuries and during the lockout before this season it again looked like he would be playing elsewhere in 2011. But new coach Jim Harbaugh made it clear he would like to keep Smith and the QB ended up signing a 1-year deal. He would be working for his 3rd head coach and his 7th offensive coordinator in 7 seasons.

At this point it felt like we’d seen enough to be able to label Smith a #1 pick bust. For whatever reason, Smith not only stayed healthy this season—starting every game for the Niners—he also began to thrive and play well on a consistent basis. It’s not like he turned into an All-Pro but he was dramatically improved.

Going into this season, Smith had thrown 51 career TD’s and 53 INT; had a 72.1 rating and a 57.1% career completion percentage; and was 19-31 in 50 career starts. This season Smith threw for 3144 yards (196.5 a game) and 17 TD’s against just 5 picks, completing 61.3% of his passes and posting a 90.7 rating while leading the Niners to a 13-3 record. Smith’s ability as a runner was always part of what made him an attractive prospect and this year he ran for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Smith’s true coming out party, or rather, the game in which he proved himself to the football world was the divisional playoff game against New Orleans. Smith was 24 of 42 for 299 yards, 3 TD’s, no INT, and scored a rushing touchdown in the Niners thrilling win over the Saints. The Niners got out to a 17-0 lead but they found themselves down a point with just 4:02 to remaining. Smith led the Niners on 16-play, 85-yard drive, going around left end on 3rd and 8 and tight roping the sideline for a 28-yard TD that put San Fran back in front.

The Saints quickly answered and this time the Niners trailed by 3 with only 1:37 on the clock. Smith did it again, leading SF on a 7-play, 85-yard march, and firing a 14-yard TD to Vernon Davis on 3rd and 4 that put the Niners back on top with only 9 seconds left. They won the game 36-32.

The next week against the Giants Smith was unable to win it, but he certainly didn’t lose the game for the Niners, completing 12 of 26 passes for 196 yards and 2 TD’s against no picks. He also ran for 42 yards on 6 attempts.

Tony Romo’s season didn’t really feel like a comeback season but you forget that his 2010 season ended in game 6 due to a broken collarbone. He came back this year to have his best season, at least statistically, as he started all 16 games and threw for 4184 yards (261.5 per game) with 31 TD’s and only 10 picks. He completed 66.3% of his passes and posted a 102.5 rating, also scoring a rushing TD. While Romo was criticized again for his role in the Cowboys’ frequent chokes, he showed his toughness by playing through several injuries.

Marshawn Lynch was drafted by the Bills in 2007 and he ran for 1115 yards in his first season. He topped 1000 yards again the next year, but he was suspended for the first 3 games of the 2009 season due to a weapons charge, and he only ended up gaining 450 yards that year. Last season he was the clear backup in Buffalo, rushing for just 164 yards through the first 4 games before being shipped off to Seattle. Lynch’s play picked up some over the final 8 games, but he still finished the season with just 737 yards.

His comeback really began in last year’s WC playoff game against the Saints, when he ran over the New Orleans defense on a long TD run that put Seattle’s upset victory on lock. He rode the momentum of that play into this season, rushing for 1204 yards (4th best in the NFC) and 12 TD’s over 15 games. Lynch also caught 28 passes for 212 yards and another score.

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