The College Basketball Blog: 2012 NCAA Tournament Predictions

2012 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Tourney time is upon us. For my money, I’m not sure there’s a better day on the sporting calendar than the first Thursday of the tournament. I’m getting these picks in less than 12 hours before the madness begins. It’s not my fault that I’ve had to wait this long to make my picks. There are good and bad things about the “First Four” or play-in games; by far the most annoying aspect of the new format is having to wait until 11:30 PM the night before the tournament starts to know what the field of 64 is.

Like a Child who Wanders into the Middle of a Movie and Wants to Know…

I really didn’t follow college basketball very closely for most of this season. In fact, I was less in tune to the sport this season than I have been in more than a decade. I’m usually slightly detached during the non-conference season; then I get into it during the conference season; I’m really into it by late February; and then from the conference tourneys through the Final Four I’m totally engulfed in college ball. It was a bit of a different experience for me this season.

It started during the non-conference portion of the season. Many of my season predictions went down the drain early on and that sort of tempered my interest in the national scene. Then there was Georgia. I was very concerned going into the season and I knew there was a good chance it would be a rough year. Still, I was watching intently and hoping early in the year (because that’s what we do as fans). The loss to Georgia Tech, however, crushed me.

By that point I had a pretty good sense that this season was going to be about “moral victories” as opposed to contending in the SEC and making it back to the tournament. When we lost to Tech at home (an awful Tech team at that), the “moral victories” thing kind of went out the window for me, and I really started wishing that the season was over. Obviously at that point I wasn’t really feeling college basketball. I mean, I didn’t stop watching or listening to every UGA game, but when you know the season is over in December, it’s kinda hard to be locked into things during January. Plus, the NFL was getting to the best part of the season and the NBA was finally getting started.

For a while, I really didn’t pay much attention to college basketball at all. In the past, one of the main things that has kept me informed of the state of the game on a national level has been gambling. I used to bet on almost all of the games that have spreads. I wasn’t betting big money, but you’d be surprised how much more involved you are when you have a 6-team parlay, even if it’s only a $5 bet. This year I wasn’t doing the betting thing because I didn’t have the time or the money. Thus, I really didn’t have many reasons to keep up with CBB this season.

I was paying attention on some level, but I really only knew what was going on with the very best teams and a few other notable teams. I mean this year I was way, way less knowledgeable about what was going on than I have been in a long time. If you had asked me in January who the top teams in the country were, I could have given you an informed response. But if you had said, “who is having the better season: Iowa or Iowa State?” I probably wouldn’t have been able to tell you.

I really didn’t start getting into this college basketball season until the first Duke-UNC battle of the year. That was on February 8^th. That’s when I started looking at the Bracketology stuff and trying to figure out what the hell was going on. By the end of the month I was as into it as ever. I loved conference tournament time as always, and even though my Dawgs aren’t involved, I’m really enjoying the postseason so far.

In the past month or so I’ve gone from being completely detached to feeling like I have a good idea of what’s going on. Still, the long time where I paid little attention to the sport has had an effect. Put frankly, I just don’t know (or think I know) as much about all of the teams this year as I normally do.

Most of the time I don’t know the rosters all that well. But I usually have a pretty good sense of how each team has been all year due to gambling and following the standings, and I always have strong hunches about certain teams. This year I really have just hunches; and those hunches aren’t as strong as usual.

As a result, I’ve approached the bracket this year in a way that I never have before. In the past, I’ve always stuck to my hunches and the views that I formed during the season. I know I’ve brought this up before, but I’ve always resisted the “matchups” theory. This year I decided to put more emphasis on those matchups.

I have come to accept the “matchups” theory much more than I once did, but that’s not the main reason that I changed tact this year. I just didn’t feel as confident in my knowledge of the teams. I decided to study up on each team and look at strengths and weaknesses, tendencies, past histories and all of that stuff. To be sure, hunches still played a major role in my picks, but not nearly as much as in the past.

I’m not saying that I’m going to do any better or worse than I normally do; I’m just explaining the process. I few years ago after I had a couple of good years in a row, I started thinking that I had the bracket process pretty much figured out. After not doing so well over the last few years, I’ve basically come to the conclusion that it’s mostly about luck. Your strategy is going to work some years; other years it’s going to be exactly the opposite of what works.

There is one other thing I’ve come to believe over the years. When you’re dealing with the tournament, sometimes the less you know, the better.

Alright, that’s enough rambling. Here are my picks.

South

First Round

#1 Kentucky over #16 Western Kentucky

#2 Duke over #15 Lehigh

#3 Baylor over #14 South Dakota State

#4 Indiana over #13 New Mexico State

#5 Wichita State over #12 VCU

#11 Colorado over #6 UNLV

#10 Xavier over #7 Notre Dame

#8 Iowa State over #9 Connecticut

Second Round

#1 Kentucky over #8 Iowa State

#2 Duke over #10 Xavier

#3 Baylor over #11 Colorado

#5 Wichita State over #4 Indiana

Regional Semifinals

#1 Kentucky over #5 Wichita State

#3 Baylor over #2 Duke

Regional Finals

#1 Kentucky over #3 Baylor

West

First Round

#1 Michigan State over #16 LIU

#2 Missouri over #15 Norfolk State

#3 Marquette over #14 BYU

#4 Louisville over #13 Davidson

#5 New Mexico over #12 Long Beach State

#6 Murray State over #11 Colorado State

#7 Florida over #10 Virginia

#8 Memphis over #9 Saint Louis

Second Round

#1 Michigan State over #8 Memphis

#2 Missouri over #7 Florida

#3 Marquette over #6 Murray State

#4 Louisville over #5 New Mexico

Regional Semifinals

#1 Michigan State over #4 Louisville

#2 Missouri over #3 Marquette

Regional Finals

#1 Michigan State over #2 Missouri

East

First Round

#1 Syracuse over #16 UNC-Asheville

#2 Ohio State over #15 Loyola-MD

#3 Florida State over #14 St. Bonaventure

#4 Wisconsin over #13 Montana

#5 Vanderbilt over #12 Harvard

#6 Cincinnati over #11 Texas

#7 Gonzaga over #10 West Virginia

#8 Kansas State over #9 Southern Mississippi

Second Round

#1 Syracuse over #8 Kansas State

#2 Ohio State over #7 Gonzaga

#3 Florida State over #6 Cincinnati

#4 Wisconsin over #5 Vanderbilt

Regional Semifinals

#1 Syracuse over #4 Wisconsin

#2 Ohio State over #3 Florida State

Regional Finals

#2 Ohio State over #1 Syracuse

Midwest

First Round

#1 North Carolina over #16 Vermont

#2 Kansas over #15 Detroit

#14 Belmont over #3 Georgetown

#4 Michigan over #13 Ohio

#12 South Florida over #5 Temple

#11 NC State over #6 San Diego State

#10 Purdue over #7 St. Mary’s

#8 Creighton over #9 Alabama

Second Round

#1 North Carolina over #8 Creighton

#2 Kansas over #10 Purdue

#6 NC State over #14 Belmont

#4 Michigan over #12 South Florida

Regional Semifinals

#1 North Carolina over #4 Michigan

#2 Kansas over #6 NC State

Regional Finals

#1 North Carolina over #2 Kansas

National Semifinals

#1 Kentucky over #1 Michigan State

#1 North Carolina over #2 Ohio State

National Championship

#1 Kentucky over #1 North Carolina (70-68)

So those are my predictions for the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Here’s a list of the conferences represented in this year’s tournament (ranked by conference RPI ranking), along with the teams from each conference (RPI listed for each team in parenthesis). That list is followed by this year’s field of 68, listed by RPI rank.

2012 NCAA Tournament Conference Breakdown

#1 Big Ten x 6 [Michigan State (3); Ohio State (7); Michigan (14); Indiana (17); Wisconsin (22); Purdue (44)]

#2 Big East x 9 [Syracuse (1); Marquette (8); Louisville (12); Georgetown (13); UConn (32); Notre Dame (38); Cincinnati (41); USF (51); West Virginia (53)]

#3 Big XII x 6 [Kansas (6); Baylor (9); Mizzu (10); ISU (33); KSU (46); Texas (48)]

#4 SEC x 4 [Kentucky (2); Vandy (20); Florida (24); Alabama (34)]

#5 MWC x 4 [UNLV (16); CSU (27); San Diego State (28); New Mexico (30)]

#6 ACC x 5 [UNC (4); Duke (5); FSU (11); UVA (45); NC State (47)]

#7 A-10 x 4 [Temple (19); St. Louis (31); Xavier (40); St. Bonaventure (74)]

#8 MVC x 2 [Wichita State (15); Creighton (26)]

#9 C-USA x 2 [Memphis (18); Southern Miss (21)]

#10 Pac-12 x 2 [Cal (37); Colorado (65)]

#11 WCC x 3 [Gonzaga (25); St. Mary’s (29)]

#12 WAC x 1 [New Mexico State (63)]

#13 Ivy x 1 [Harvard (35)]

#14 Horizon x 1 [Detroit (128)]

#15 CAA x 1 [VCU (39)]

#16 Summit x 1 [South Dakota State (52)]

#17 MAAC x 2 [Iona (42); Loyola-MD (80)]

#18 MAC x 1 [Ohio (50)]

#19 SBC x 1 [Western Kentucky (189)]

#20 A-Sun x 1 [Belmont (66)]

#21 OVC x 1 [Murray State (23)]

#22 Patriot x 1 [Lehigh (94)]

#23 Southern x 1 [Davidson (68)]

#24 Big West x 1 [Long Beach State (36)]

#25 NEC x 1 [Long Island (87)]

#26 Big Sky x 1 [Montana (78)]

#27 Southland x 1 [Lamar (108)]

#28 Big South x 1 [UNC-Asheville (112)]

#29 America East x 1 [Vermont (138)]

#30 MEAC x 1 [Norfolk State (127)]

#33 SWAC x 1 [Mississippi Valley State (149)]

2012 NCAA Tournament Field-of-68 by RPI Ranking

#1 Syracuse

#2 Kentucky

#3 Michigan State

#4 North Carolina

#5 Duke

#6 Kansas

#7 Ohio State

#8 Marquette

#9 Baylor

#10 Missouri

#11 Florida State

#12 Louisville

#13 Georgetown

#14 Michigan

#15 Wichita State

#16 UNLV

#17 Indiana

#18 Memphis

#19 Temple

#20 Vanderbilt

#21 Southern Mississippi

#22 Wisconsin

#23 Murray State

#24 Florida

#25 Gonzaga

#26 Creighton

#27 Colorado State

#28 San Diego State

#29 St. Mary’s

#30 New Mexico

#31 Saint Louis

#32 Connecticut

#33 Iowa State

#34 Alabama

#35 Harvard

#36 Long Beach State

#37 California

#38 Notre Dame

#39 Virginia Commonwealth

#40 Xavier

#41 Cincinnati

#42 Iona

#44 Purdue

#45 Virginia

#46 Kansas State

#47 NC State

#48 Texas

#49 BYU

#50 Ohio

#51 South Florida

#52 South Dakota State

#53 West Virginia

#63 New Mexico State

#65 Colorado

#68 Davidson

#74 St. Bonaventure

#78 Montana

#80 Loyola-MD

#87 Long Island

#94 Lehigh

#108 Lamar

#112 UNC-Asheville

#127 Norfolk State

#129 Detroit

#138 Vermont

#149 Mississippi Valley State

#189 Western Kentucky