The NFL Blog: 2011 Wild Card Round Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread: (6-9-1); Straight Up: (14-2)

Season: Vs. Spread: (133-114-9); Straight Up: (174-82)

Week 17 Review: A strange final week for me. It was certainly disappointing to finish the year with a down week ATS. On the other hand, considering how bad things were looking at one point during the day, 6-9-1 wasn’t all that bad. Once again, I avoided disaster. Plus, I went 14-2 picking winners in a week that has routinely fooled me.

Wild Card Round Preview: I think this is a tricky opening round of the postseason. I don’t know what to think of the Cinci-Houston game, as both teams have backed into the playoffs. I really can’t look at the Falcons-Giants game objectively. My heart is going to make me think that we win it, even though this team has never won a playoff game; hasn’t been a good team all year; doesn’t figure to matchup that well with the G-Men; and will be playing on the road. The Detroit-New Orleans game looks obvious…or is it an obvious trap game? And then there’s Pittsburgh at Denver. The Steelers are a beat up football team. They’ll be playing in the altitude on the road. And they’ll be facing God’s second son. They should still blow it out but they haven’t been blowing people out lately. This is just a tricky weekend for picking games.

Saturday’s Early Game

Cincinnati (+3) @ Houston

Pick: Texans win but Bengals beat the spread

Comments: The 2011-2012 NFL playoffs open with by far the least intriguing game of the weekend. That’s probably as it should be. Everyone will be so jazzed up and ready for the playoffs that they’ll be excited for any game. That’s the theory at least, but it will be tested by this matchup.

There’s nothing at all sexy about this thing. Neither team has any momentum heading into the playoffs and few unbiased football fans view either team as a Super Bowl contender.

Then you look at the quarterback matchup. On one side you have a redheaded rookie who has been a “game manager” this year; on the other side you have a guy who is only playing because two other QB’s suffered season ending injuries (and even he isn’t 100%). Darwin forbid we see Jake Delhomme in this game.

How about the coaching matchup? The only thing interesting about it is that both guys actually got enough 2^nd and 3^rd chances to be coaching in this playoff game.

The playoffs are the playoffs, but we’re not exactly going to be getting things started off with a bang. Or at least that’s the way it appears now. You never know: it could be a classic.

It’s too bad Brad Nessler won’t be doing the play-by-play for NBC. I don’t know; Mike Mayock is fine but Tom Hammond just doesn’t do anything for me. He’s not terrible or annoying; he just makes me feel like I’m watching Notre Dame vs. Air Force or some event from the Olympic Trials.

There was a time last week—before the playoff picture fully crystallized—when it seemed possible (even likely) that NBC would choose the Denver vs. Pittsburgh/Baltimore game for the Saturday night time slot. That would have meant CBS’ only game of the weekend would be Houston vs. Cincinnati. Can’t imagine they would have been happy with that.

By the way, it’s too bad that ABC/ESPN can’t do any of the playoff games. I mean, not that I need any more ABC/ESPN coverage than I’m already getting, but I like the current Monday Night Football trio of Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden.

Anyway, aside from action on the field that might make this one interesting, the only intriguing aspect is the novelty of the Texans being in the playoffs. They will be hosting the game, and I assume their fans will be fired up, despite the continuous injuries and the slump to end the season. I’m curious to see what the atmosphere will be like.

There’s really no longer anything interesting about the Bengals being in the playoffs. They’ve made it enough now that it’s not like, “Wow! The Fucking Bungles are in the playoffs!” Now it’s just sort of like the Jaguars being in the playoffs or something.

On a positive note, the score should be tight throughout and either team could end up on top. If there’s drama in this one, it will be because of the action on the field more than the characters involved.

Playoff Position

Cincinnati: The Bengals entered week 17 as the #6 seed in the AFC playoff standings. A win over the Ravens at home would clinch the #6 seed. However, the Bengals fell down 14-0 to the Ravens and trailed 17-3 at the half. They cut the deficit to 17-13 early in the 4^th but the Ravens answered. Trailing 24-16, the Bengals had a 1^st down at the Baltimore 33 with 15 seconds remaining, but Andy Dalton fired 3 consecutive incompletions and Cincinnati lost by 8.

They hadn’t been able to take care of business themselves, but even before Dalton’s last pass fell incomplete, Bengals fans (and likely the entire team) knew their season wasn’t over. This was because everything the Bengals needed to go right for them in case they didn’t win did go their way. Earlier in the day, the Jets had lost to Miami. That meant that if the Bengals lost, they could still get the #6 seed if either Oakland or Denver lost (or if both lost).

In the end, the Bengals made it in with room to spare, as both the Raiders and Broncos lost. During the Bengals’ final drive, the final score from Denver was put up on the board, drawing loud cheers from the fans who suddenly felt like they were playing with house money.

Houston: With the Colts an embarrassment; the Jaguars among the worst teams in the league; and the Titans a middling, inconsistent club; the door was wide open for the Texans and they marched through it.

They came from behind to stun the Bengals on the road in week 14 for their 7^th consecutive win. Moments later, Tennessee’s upset bid of the New Orleans Saints came to an end with the Titans losing 22-17, clinching the AFC South title for the Texans. They were headed to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

At that point, they actually had a shot at the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Looking at their remaining schedule, it seemed like they had a much better than 50-50 chance of finishing 13-3 which would guarantee at least a bye week and home field advantage in their first playoff game.

But Houston’s hot streak would end the very next week in a stunning loss to the Carolina Panthers at home. They were only favored by 4.5 points but they 15-point loss to a 4-9 team was nonetheless surprising. Their next loss was much more startling.

The Texans were still in decent position to snag the #2 seed in the AFC. On Thursday night in week 16, they went on the road to face a Colts team that had just gotten their first win of the season the week before against Tennessee. The Texans were 7-point favorites over the 1-13 Colts and they lead almost the entire game, but they couldn’t put Indy away, and they ended up going down in the final moments. They lost 16-19 to the Colts on primetime television.

It was their 2^nd straight defeat and by the end of the week they were locked into the #3 spot. With nothing to play for in the season finale at home, they gave the Titans a good battle before losing 22-23 to finish the year on a 3-game skid.

Records and Trends

Cincinnati: The Bengals are 9-7 overall (8-6-2 ATS) and 5-3 on the road (5-1-2 ATS). They have a +1.3 average scoring differential. After starting off the season 6-2, they are just 3-5 in their last 8 games (1-5-2 ATS). Those 5 losses have come at the hands of the Steelers (twice), the Ravens (twice), and the Texans.

Houston: The Texans are 10-6 overall (9-5-2 ATS) and 5-3 at home (4-2-2 ATS). They have a strong +6.4 average scoring differential. Houston has lost their last 3 games (0-2-1 ATS). Those 3 losses came against Carolina, at Indianapolis, and against the Titans.

Team Stats and Rankings

Cincinnati: The Bengals have fairly pedestrian numbers overall on the season. Football Outsiders ranks them 17^th in offense, 17^th in defense, 7^th in special teams, and 17^th overall.

They do a good job of taking care of the ball (tied 10^th in giveaways) but they don’t force many turnovers (tied 22^nd in takeaways). They are 17^th in the NFL with an even turnover margin. The Bengals are 14^th in penalties and 22^nd in penalty yards.

Cincinnati has struggled in the red zone on both sides of the ball. They are 22^nd in offensive red zone TD percentage (45.1%) and 25^th in defensive red zone TD percentage (58.5%).

The Bengals have benefited from some big special teams/defensive plays and they haven’t given up many. They have 1 PR TD, 1 INT TD, 2 FR TD’s, and a safety. They have allowed 1 PR TD and 1 INT TD.

The Bengals have basically been a below average offensive team, (although 4 games against the Steelers and Ravens and a game against Houston doesn’t help) as they are 18^th in the NFL in points per game (21.5) and 20^th in yards per game (319.9).

Cinci’s strength is on the defensive side. They’ve been a solid defensive team all season, ranking 9^th in points allowed per game (20.2) and 7^th in yards allowed per game (316.2).

Houston: Going into the season, Houston was thought of as a team that could contend for the playoffs with a dangerous offense if they could only get their defense to be slightly better than wretched. Despite injuries, Houston did end up being a solid offensive team. The surprise, was that the Texans—despite the loss of pass rushing stud Mario Williams—became one of the better defensive teams in the league (again, playing 6 games against the other teams in the AFC South helps).

Football Outsiders ranks Houston 9^th in offense, 8^th in defense, 12^th in special teams, and 5^th overall (yes, 5^th overall).

They don’t turn the ball over (6^th in giveaways) and they have forced some turnovers (12^th in takeaways). They are tied for 7^th in the NFL with a +7 turnover margin. The Texans are 13^th in penalties and 18^th in penalty yards.

One problem area for Houston offensively has been in the red zone, where they are 25^th in TD percentage (46.7%). On the other side, they are 9^th in the NFL in defensive red zone TD percentage (47.7%).

The Texans have scored on a punt return, an interception return, and a fumble return, while allowing just 1 fumble return for a TD.

As stated before, the Texans have been solid on both sides of the ball. They are 10^th in the league in points scored per game (23.8) and 13^th in yards per game (372.1). Defensively, they are 4^th in scoring defense (17.4) and 2^nd in total defense (285.7).

Injury News

Cincinnati: The Bengals are in pretty damn good shape health wise compared with the rest of the playoff teams. They have of course lost a few men along the way.

Starting guard Bobbie Williams broke an ankle in week 14 and is on IR. Solid CB Leon Hall tore his Achilles tendon in week 10 and is on IR. WR Andre Caldwell tore his groin muscle in week 14 and is on IR.

The guys on the active roster appear to be fairly healthy. Safety Taylor Mays (hamstring) missed the final game of the season and has not practiced this week. DE Frostee Rucker (shoulder) has also been held out of practice so far. Starting safety Chris Crocker (knee), starting center Kyle Cook (foot), and feature back Cedric Benson (foot) are nursing injuries but should be fine for Saturday.

Something that doesn’t seem serious but makes you wonder a little bit is the report that QB Andy Dalton was held out of Wednesday’s practice due to an illness.

Houston: In recent years, the Texans had garnered a reputation for being that “team on the verge of a breakthrough” that always managed to fail and disappoint. One of the more impressive things about their breakthrough season this year, is the fact that they have been decimated by injuries to their best players and at key positions.

OLB Mario Williams recorded his 5^th sack of the season in the 5^th game of the season against Oakland in week 5. Unfortunately he tore a pectoral muscle on the play and was lost for the season.

Leading 16-0 against the Bucs in week 10, the Texans were backed up at their own 1 yard line with 1:31 remaining in the 2^nd quarter. On 2^nd and 14, QB Matt Schaub attempted a QB sneak to try and give the offense some breathing room and force the Bucs to take their final timeout of the half. He was stonewalled by Albert Haynesworth but not before pushing for a yard out to the 2. Schaub completed 2 of his 3 pass attempts in the 2^nd half as the Texans ran the ball and chewed up clock on the way to a 37-9 victory. Matt Leinart entered the game for the final series and took a knee on the last play of the game.

It turned out that Schaub had suffered a Lisfranc joint injury in his right foot on that QB sneak back in the 2^nd quarter. Incredibly, he would have to have surgery and was gone for the year.

After a timely bye week, the Texans took on the Jaguars in week 12 with Matt Leinart as the starting quarterback. Houston did a good job of tailoring the offense to fit the situation, as Leinart was starting his first game since 2009 and had yet to throw a pass on the season. Attempting mostly check down passes, Leinart had completed 10 of 13 for 57 yards and a TD, as the Texans took over at their own 45 with 1:45 left in the half, holding a 17-10 lead.

On the first play of the drive, Leinart was pressured up the middle and had to get rid of the ball out towards Arian Foster for an incompletion. However, DE Jeremy Mincey got to Leinart just after he got rid of the ball and drove him into the ground with his full weight coming down on the QB. Leinart’s left shoulder was buried beneath all of the weight and that wasn’t a good position to be in.

Leinart got up gingerly, favoring his shoulder, and headed to the locker room. He had a broken left clavicle and was done for the year. Two weeks; two QB’s gone.

TJ Yates entered the game, making his NFL debut, and helped the Texans finish off the victory and he would end up being the guy the rest of the season. Houston tried out other QB’s and signed different guys but it has been Yates’ job.

But there have been other injuries, most notably, star WR Andre Johnson’s on-going hamstring problems which have ruined his season. Johnson suffered a bad hamstring injury in week 4 and missed the next 6 games. Each week there would be talk of his return but he continued to be NA. Finally he made his return in week 12 and he saw action again in week 13 but it was clear that he wasn’t himself and he ended up re-aggravating the hamstring injury. He missed 3 more games.

With hopes of getting ready for the postseason, Johnson played in the season finale, and he should play this weekend against the Bengals. He probably won’t be the real Andre Johnson, however, as he has caught a total of 8 passes since week 4.

Other key players have gone down. Punter Brett Hartmann was lost for the year due to a knee injury suffered in week 13. Matt Turk replaced him as the team’s punter. A handful of reserve players have also had to be placed on IR.

It looked like another key cog was done for when starting guard Michael Brisiel suffered a fractured fibula in week in week 13. However, Brisiel has apparently had a very speedy recovery and expects to play this Saturday. Safety Trey Nolan missed the final two games of the season with an ankle injury and his status for this weekend’s game is iffy.

Incredibly, the Texans’ 3^rd starting QB of the season had to come out of week 17’s game with the Titans in the 1^st quarter due to an apparent shoulder injury. It turned out that TJ Yates had suffered a separated left shoulder.

Fortunately for Houston, unlike Leinart, Yates is a righty, and he’s going to be the starting QB against Cincinnati. Still, he has a separated shoulder, and Jake Delhomme played most of the game against Tennessee for the Texans. That has to make everyone associated with the team a little bit nervous.

Series History

The Texans and Bengals have squared off 6 times since Houston’s inaugural 2002 season, with the two teams splitting the games 3-3. This will obviously be the first ever meeting in the playoffs. The Bengals took the first 3 games in the series but the Texans have won the last 3.

The Texans are 1-1 against the Bengals at home (they won the last time they faced Cinci at home in 2008). The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Bengals. The last meeting was in week 14 of this season at Cincinnati, with the Texans winning 20-19.

Recap of Week 14 Meeting

In week 14, the Texans and Bengals squared off in a fairly significant matchup in Cincinnati, with both teams hoping to get a win that would boost their drive to the playoffs. In a truly bizarre game, the Texans came from behind and won on by a point on a last second TD pass.

Despite the extremely close final score, the Texans ended up outgaining Cincinnati 412-285 (+127) and they had a 25-16 edge in 1^st downs. It was a game of mistakes and missed opportunities. The Texans turned it over 4 times (3 fumbles lost and 1 INT), while the Bengals gave the ball away twice (2 fumbles lost).

Neil Rackers made 2 of his 3 FG attempts, while Cincinnati kicker Mike Nugent went 4 for 4 on FG tries, but Cincinnati would be haunted by their inability to finish off drives with TD’s. The Texans scored TD’s on 2 of 4 red zone opportunities, while the Bengals went just 1 for 3. In addition, the Texans scored TD’s on 2 of their 3 goal-to-go situations, while the Bengals went 0 for 2.

Cincinnati won the sack battle, 5-1, but TJ Yates was a bigger factor in the game than Andy Dalton. Dalton was sacked once for a 5-yard loss and went 16 of 28 for 189 yards and a TD. Yates got sacked 5 times for -32 yards, lost a fumble, and threw a pick, but he attempted 44 passes, completing 26 of them for 300 yards, 2 touchdowns. He also ran 5 times for 36 yards (7.2 average).

For the Bengals, Cedric Benson carried the ball 21 times for 91 yards (4.3 average), but 42 came on one play, and as a team the Bengals rushed for just 101 yards on 29 carries (3.5 average). The Texans had much more success pounding the rock. Ben Tate rushed 8 times for 67 yards (8.4 average), including a long run of 44 yards, while Arian Foster carried 15 times for just 41 yards (2.7 average). Eventually, the Bengals defense wore down, and the Texans ended up rushing for 144 yards on 28 carries as a team (5.1 average).

Houston TE Owen Daniels had a huge day, making 7 catches for 100 yards. Yates, Foster, and Tate each lost a fumble for the Texans. Dalton lost a fumble for the Bengals. DT Geno Atkins also lost a fumble for the Bengals, on what was probably the biggest play of the game.

The Texans scored first, getting a FG from Rackers to take an early 3-0 lead. The Bengals then drove on the Houston defense and they were setup to take the lead with a 1^st and goal from the 1. Aside from a fumbled snap, about the only way you get out of a 1^st and goal from the 1 situation as a defense is for the opposition to commit that worst false start of all false starts. That’s what the Bengals did and they ended up with a 4^th and goal from the 4 and decided to kick the FG to tie it at 3-3.

On the ensuing Houston series, Yates was picked off and the ball was returned to the Texans’ 25. Once again, Cincinnati couldn’t take full advantage, going 3-and-out and settling for another Nugent FG to take a 6-3 lead after 1 quarter of play. Now the Texans offense got it in gear and drove deep into Cinci territory. They looked poised to retake the lead, but on 1^st and goal from the 2, Tate fumbled and the Bengals recovered at their own 3.

Momentum now swung in Cincinnati’s favor. The Bengals went on a 97-yard march, converting a 4^th and 3 from the Houston 35 along the way, and finally they finished it off with a TD to increase their lead to 13-3.

The Texans responded, moving the ball across midfield quickly, and setting up for another Rackers field goal try, this one from 47 yards out. But this time the kick was no good and the Bengals got the ball back with good field position and 30 seconds remaining in the half. They now took a shot at a late score and got in position for a long field goal try. Nugent buried a 49-yarder, sending the Bengals to halftime with a 16-3 lead.

At the start of the 3^rd, the Bengals appeared in control, holding a 13-point lead and getting the ball first in the 2^nd half. But on the 2^nd play of Cincinnati’s opening possession of the 3^rd quarter, Dalton got sacked and fumbled, and the Texans recovered at the Cincinnati 17. They took full advantage, putting 7 on the board to cut the deficit to 10-16 just like that.

Later in the 3^rd, the Bengals went on an 88-yard march deep into Houston territory. They picked up a 1^st down inside the 10, giving them 1^st and goal from the 9. They would go no further. On 4^th and goal from the 10, the Bengals settled for another Nugent FG, increasing their lead to 19-10.

Though they hadn’t been able to score the touchdown, the Bengals had made it a 2-score game again, and they had taken a good chunk of time off the clock. They took that 9-point lead into the 4^th quarter.

Early in the 4^th, Houston moved into Cincinnati territory again, looking to cut into the deficit. On 3^rd and 1 from the Bengals’ 31, Cincinnati’s D stuffed the Texans for a loss of a yard, brining up 4^th and 2 from the 32. Instead of trying for what would basically be a 50-yard FG to make it a 6-point game, the Texans went for it on 4^th down and Yates was dropped for a sack. He fumbled the ball and the Bengals fell on it at the Texans’ 48.

Leading by 9 with 13:31 remaining, Cincinnati’s offense took over with a chance to put the game away. Instead, they went 3-and-out, and punted. Houston got the ball back at their own 25 with still 11:50 on the clock.

The Texans were still very much in the game, having dodged a bullet and gotten the ball back with less than 2 minutes coming off the clock. But on the very next play, the Bengals appeared to deliver a knockout blow. The Cincinnati defense jarred the ball loose from Foster and Geno Atkins picked up the ball at the Houston 14 yard line.

There was still a ton of time left, but had Atkins simply sat down where he secured the fumble the Bengals would have almost certainly gotten at least a FG out of it. That would have meant Houston had to score 2 TD’s to beat them. And as much as the Bengals had struggled all day in the red zone, Houston’s defense would have had to come out and bow up again, and they may not have been able to do it this time. A TD would have put the game away.

But Atkins didn’t sit down. He tried to turn a big play into a huge play and returned the ball to the 9, but then he fumbled, and the Texans managed to recover the ball at the 2-yard line. A torpedo had been dodged. There was still 11:35 left in the game, but while Atkins miscue had kept the Texans alive, it wasn’t a total disaster, as Houston was backed up to their own 2. The Texans challenged the call, hoping that it would be ruled an incomplete pass and not a fumble by Foster, which would have meant 2^nd and 10 from the 25, but the call was upheld.

So Yates and the Texans would have to try and get something going from their own goal line. That’s exactly what they were able to do. The moved the ball out from deep in their own territory and then across into Cincinnati territory. They went 83 yards, eventually settling for a FG try which Rackers converted to make it a 13-19 score with 5:31 to go.

Now it was up to Houston’s defense to get the ball back. They looked to be on the verge of doing just that, as the Bengals faced 3^rd and 15 from their own 34. The Texans had 1 timeout left and if they could get a stop here they would have the ball back with time enough for one last drive. But the Bengals came up with a brilliant play call, a shovel pass to Bernard Scott that caught the Texans. However, Danieal Manning brought Scott to a halt after a gain of 14 yards, 1 yard shy of the 1^st down marker at the 48. The Texans burned their last timeout with 2:43 remaining.

Out of the timeout, the Bengals offense took the field and lined up as if to go for it. I’m not sure whether they actually meant to go for the win with a running play or were just trying to draw the Texans offsides, but they once again hurt themselves with a killer false start. That ended whatever it was they were intending to do and they punted.

Houston took over at their own 20 with 2:33 on the clock and no timeouts. They had to have 6; a FG would do nothing. Perhaps Cincinnati’s defense had been worn down by the previous lengthy Texans drive, because Houston was now able to move the ball down the field again. The Bengals were also playing a safe defense, knowing that Houston had to score a touchdown and they would have to do it without any timeouts.

Once the Texans neared the red zone, however, the Bengals defense tried to stiffen. On 2^nd and 10 from the Cincinnati 35, the Bengals got to Yates for a sack back at the 40. It was a loss of 5 yards and a loss of a considerable amount of time, as the Texans couldn’t afford to spike the ball and had to run back to the new line of scrimmage, get lined up, and run a play.

It was 3^rd and 15 from the 40 and Yates snapped the ball with 44 seconds remaining. With the Texans now in a hole, the Cincinnati defense protected against anyone getting open deep in the secondary, and they left a lot of space between the QB and that secondary. Yates took off and scrambled for 17 yards and a 1^st down at the 23. He spiked the ball with 24 tics on the clock.

There were 18 seconds left when Yates dropped back to throw on 3^rd and 10 from the 23. He took a shot towards the end zone for Jacoby Jones but couldn’t hook up. Fortunately for the Texans, Jacoby Jones was being covered by one Adam “Pacman” Jones, who got hit with pass interference. That penalty gave Houston a 1^st and goal at the 6.

The problem was that they had no timeouts and only 12 seconds left to work with. Yates threw incomplete for Kevin Walters on 1^st down, leaving 8 seconds on the clock. On 2^nd and goal from the 6, Yates fired over the middle for Walters again and this time he made the catch in the end zone for a touchdown with 2 seconds showing on the scoreboard. Rackers booted the extra point to point the Texans on top by a point.

Fittingly, Adam Jones was tackled at the Cincinnati 1-yard line on the final play of the game, as the Bengals tried to come up with a Stanford-Cal type of play on the ensuing kickoff. The Texans won it, 20-19. Moments after the game’s conclusion, they learned that the Titans had been defeated, meaning they were the AFC South division champs.

Team Playoff Histories

Cincinnati: This is Cincinnati’s 10^th trip to the postseason (all since 1970), their 3^rd in the last 7 years, and their 2^nd in the last 3 years. They have played in 2 conference championship games and 2 Super Bowls but they have never won it all. The Bengals are 5-9 all-time in the playoffs (0-4 on the road) and 1-3 in the WC round (0-0 on the road). The Bengals are 3-6 in their opening game of the playoffs, having lost their last 2. They have lost 3 straight in the playoffs overall.

Somewhat ironically, Cincinnati’s last playoff win was a 41-14 victory over the Houston Oilers in the Wild Card round in 1990. The next week, the Bengals would go on the road and lose to the Los Angeles Raiders, 20-10. That game will forever be remembered mainly for the injury sustained by Bo Jackson late in the proceedings that would end his career.

However, that loss would also end up being the last gasp of the Sam Wyche Era. The team would go 3-13 the following year, leading to Wyche’s firing, and ushering in an era of complete and utter futility that would last over a decade. From 1991 through 2002, the Bengals suffered through 12 consecutive non-winning seasons, including 11 losing seasons, 9 double digit loss seasons, 7 seasons with 12 or more losses, and 5 seasons with 13 or more losses. During that stretch, the Bungles would continuously fail on draft day, go through 4 head coaches, and become the absolute laughing stock of the NFL. The era concluded with the 2-14 campaign of 2002, their 5^th straight season with double digit losses.

The next season, Baltimore DC Marvin Lewis took over as head coach. This is Lewis’ 9^th season in Cincinnati (2003-2011). During his time as head coach the Bengals have posted 6 non-losing seasons, only 2 seasons with double digit losses, 3 winning seasons, 3 playoff appearances, 2 division titles, and 2 double digit win seasons.

This is their 3^rd trip to the playoffs under Marvin Lewis. Unfortunately, the Bengals are 0-2 in playoff games with Lewis as head coach (0-0 on the road). They are 0-2 in the WC round during the Lewis era (0-0 on the road).

Houston: The playoff history of the Texans is pretty simple: there is none. This will be their first ever playoff appearance. They came into the NFL as an expansion team in 2002 and they will be playing in their first ever playoff game in their 10^th season.

From 2002-2005, the Texans posted 4 consecutive losing seasons under original head coach Dom Capers. They lost 11 or more games in 3 of those 4 seasons, with their best effort being a 7-9 record in 2004. They went 2-14 the following season.

Gary Kubiak was hired to be the team’s 2^nd head coach in 2006. This is Kubiak’s 6^th season as head coach (2006-2011). Under Kubiak, the Texans have had 4 non-losing seasons, 2 double digit loss seasons, no seasons with more than 10 losses, 2 winning seasons, 1 playoff appearance, 1 10-win season, and 1 division title.

The playoff appearance, 10-win season, and division title have all come this season of course. This is their 2^nd winning season in the last 3 years and it is their 4^th non-losing season in the last 5 years.

Keys to the Game

Cincinnati: The Bengals obviously have to learn their lesson from the matchup in week 14. They need to hold onto the ball and take advantage of scoring opportunities. Their defense struggled late in that game against Houston. It seemed like they got worn down by the Texans’ offense. For this reason, it’ll be important for the Bengals to avoid 3-and-outs and to convert some 3^rd downs into 1^st downs in order to extend drives and keep the Houston offense off the field.

One crucial difference between this meeting and the one these teams had during the regular season, is that the Bengals will be the visiting team for this one. This will be Houston’s first ever playoff game, so you know the crowed is going to be amped. With this in mind, it’ll be important for the Bengals to avoid falling behind early and giving a frenzied crowd the chance to be a factor. Mentally, the Bengals are going to have to get over their struggles against tough competition this season. If they fall behind early, with the crowd going berserk, they could have problems.

For the Cincinnati defense, the key will be to slow down Houston’s rushing attack and make TJ Yates beat them. Speaking of Yates, the Bengals need to get after him early just to see exactly how big of a deal that shoulder injury is. It would also be a good idea to test him because he’s an inexperienced rookie QB. He’ll be playing in his first ever playoff game, despite having played in just 6 games of any kind in his career.

Finally, the Cincinnati defense will want to try and control TE Owen Daniels this time, as he torched them for 100 yards back in week 14.

Houston: Like the Bengals, the Texans need to learn their lesson from the matchup in week 14, which they could so easily have lost. Just like Cinci, they need to hold onto the ball and take advantage of scoring opportunities.

Offensively and defensively Houston’s strategy to beat the Bengals should be very simple: run the ball and stop the run. If they do that and don’t turn the ball over they should win. The ground game is Houston’s biggest strength and they need to be able to move the ball on the ground in this one in order to take the heat off of Yates.

Another thing to watch out for will of course be the presence of Andre Johnson. If he can be anything close to the real Andre Johnson in this game the Texans could be hard to beat.

On the other side, if the Texans can stop Cedric Benson, the only real threat will be AJ Green. Houston needs to focus on him because he is that rare wide out who can greatly affect the outcome with 3 or 4 big plays throughout the game.

Getting off to a good start will be huge for Houston, as it will help them put the disappointing end to the season behind them, and it will make the crowd a factor.

Saturday Night’s Game

Detroit (+10.5) @ New Orleans

Pick: Saints cover

Comments: This looks like the best game of the week, or at least, the most exciting matchup. You can expect lots of scoring, as both teams have explosive offenses built to play indoors, and neither team has a stellar defense. Drew Brees is coming off of a record setting year, while Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson form one of the best QB-WR combos in the NFL.

The game will be down in New Orleans at the Superdome, which will be as raucous as always. Then there’s the novelty of Detroit being back in the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. Should the Lions have a chance in this game, you can bet that the theme of “the Lions trying to win for the city of Detroit like the Saints won for the city of New Orleans” will be touched upon several times.

This game will be called by the Sunday night crew from NBC (Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth). Chris Collinsworth annoys the hell out of some people but he actually doesn’t really bother me. People seem to think he’s “wrong,” a lot of times in his analysis. That’s a criticism I’ve heard from a few ex-player types. Be that as it may, I actually appreciate that he’ll focus on individual matchups and who is winning those individual matchups.

As for Michaels, how can you complain? And that’s just it. Sports broadcasting is one of those professions where if anyone at all notices and appreciates you, that means that someone out there hates you ( or at least hates you as a broadcaster). Michaels’ greatest trait as a play-by-play man may be that you almost never hear someone say that they don’t like him. Anyway, NBC will be done after this one until the Super Bowl.

The Lions have become (or have tried to become) the bad boys of the NFL, while the Saints are in some ways seen as the new “America’s Team.” There will probably be a lot of neutral fans rooting for both sides. This should be exciting, even if the Saints do end up winning handedly as the spread suggests they will.

Playoff Position

Detroit: The Lions clinched their first playoff bid since 1999 with their somewhat surprising blowout win over the Chargers in week 16. When the Falcons lost to the Saints on Monday night, it looked like the Lions were in good position to grab the #5 seed. All they had to do was win their final game. Normally, beating a 14-1 Packers team at Lambeau would be considered a tall task, but Green Bay had the #1 seed wrapped up and would be resting their starters.

Apparently, Green Bay’s bench is pretty good too. Matt Flynn led the Packers to victory in a shootout, 45-41. When the Falcons beat the Bucs later in the day, the Lions slid to the #6 spot, meaning they would have to play the Saints in New Orleans instead of the winner of the NFC East.

New Orleans: The Saints steamrolled the Vikings in Minnesota in week 15 to clinch a playoff spot with 2 weeks to spare. They still had business to take care of in the NFC South and there was still a chance they could earn a first round bye. They couldn’t catch Green Bay for the #1 seed, as the Packers held the tie-breaker over them. However, if San Francisco slipped up and lost one of their final games, the Saints could grab the #2 spot.

On MNF in week 16, the Saints rolled their rivals from Atlanta, 45-16, as Drew Brees set the all-time single season passing record. That victory gave the Saints the NFC South title. They took care of business in week 17 as well, defeating the Panthers to finish 13-3. Unfortunately for the Saints, the 49ers never did slip up, so the Saints wound up with the #3 seed.

Records and Trends

Detroit: The Lions are 10-6 overall this season (7-7-2 ATS) and 5-3 on the road (3-3-2 ATS). Despite 6 losses—several of them fairly lopsided—the Lions have a solid +5.4 average scoring differential. The Lions had won 3 in a row to seal their playoff berth prior to losing 41-45 at Green Bay in the season finale. However, they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

New Orleans: The Saints are 13-3 overall this season with a sterling 12-4 mark ATS. They are a perfect 8-0 at home and a perfect 8-0 ATS at home. They have a very impressive average scoring margin of +13.0. In addition, the Saints enter the playoffs having won 8 games in a row and having won 8 straight ATS.

Stats and Rankings

Detroit: The Lions got it wrong in the NFL draft for many years, prolonging their stay at the bottom of the NFL. Eventually, however, they began to amass some quality young talent, particularly on the offensive side. A soft defense and QB Matt Stafford’s injuries were the things keeping the Lions from moving out of the basement over the last couple of years.

This season they hoped both of those problems would be remedied. Matt Stafford did stay healthy this season and the Lions did become one of the more capable offensive teams in the league. Defensively, the Lions were determined to become a tough-nosed unit led by DT Ndamukong Suh. Their image has certainly changed. Unfortunately, the results haven’t been much better on that side of the ball.

Making matters worse, their attempts to become known as an intimidating, scary defense have more or less backfired, as they have also become undisciplined and a target for officials and the league office.

The folks at Football Outsiders don’t see the Lions as the all-offense/no-defense team that I do, or at least, their rankings don’t reflect that. They have Detroit ranked 10^th in offense. That’s not bad, as it’s in the top 3^rd, but it might not be as high as you might expect. However, they rank Detroit 9^th in defense. Yes, they actually have the Lions ranked higher in defense than in offense. Detroit ranks 29^th in special teams for Football Outsiders, but overall they have them ranked 11^th.

Just how much faith to have in those numbers is up for debate. The more traditional statistics show a much more unbalanced team and something much more along the lines of what I was presenting earlier. The Lions are 4^th in the league in scoring offense (29.6) and 5^th in total offense (396.1). However, they are 23^rd in scoring defense (24.2) and 23^rd in total defense (367.6).

The Lions have been very good at capitalizing on scoring opportunities, as they are 4^th in the NFL in red zone TD percentage (63.8%). Defensively, they’ve been solid in red zone situations, ranking 12^th in touchdown percentage (49.1%). Matt Stafford came into the league with a bit of a reputation as a gunslinger, but the Lions have done pretty well taking care of the ball this season, ranking tied for 11^th in giveaways. The defense’s strength has been forcing turnovers, as they are tied 3^rd in takeaways. As a result, the Lions rank 4^th in the league in turnover differential (+11).

Not only have the Lions excelled at forcing turnovers, they have been a big play defense. They have 5 INT TD’s, 2 FR TD’s, and a safety. Unfortunately, opposing defenses and special teams units have also produced a number of big plays against the Lions. They have allowed a punt return for a TD; a kick return for a TD; 3 INT TD’s; 1 FR TD; and 1 safety.

Detroit’s biggest weakness by far this season was their lack of discipline and composure. It has to be a concern for anyone predicting big things for them in the playoffs. They are 30^th in the league in penalties and 31^st in penalty yards.

New Orleans: The Saints might be the scariest team in the NFL right now. The reason for this is no secret: their offense can look unstoppable at times. You have to say that New Orleans’ weakness is on defense. Then again, the Drew Brees/Sean Payton machine might be good enough to make the other side of the game irrelevant when it’s all said and done.

The Saints lead the league in total offense (467.1) and they are 2^nd in points per game (34.2). They are just 24^th in total defense (368.4) but they are 13^th in points allowed per game (21.2). Football Outsiders ranks New Orleans 2^nd in offense, 28^th in defense, 13^th in special teams, and 3^rd overall.

Despite all of the passing that the Saints do, they are tied 4^th in giveaways. Forcing turnovers was a hallmark of the 2009 Saints team that won it all. They haven’t been that sort of a defense this year, as they are 31^st in the NFL in takeaways. The Saints are tied 19^th in turnover differential (-3). They are 15^th in penalties and 17^th in penalty yards.

As any team that has played in recent years would expect, the Saints have good numbers offensively in the red zone, where they are 6^th in touchdown percentage (58.7%). Defensively, they are 28^th in red zone TD% (59.0%).

The Saints have 1 PR TD, 1 INT TD, and a pair of FR TD’s. They have allowed 1 KR TD and 1 INT TD.

Injury News

Detroit: The Lions have had Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson relatively healthy all season. It is at the running back position that Detroit has had injury problems this season. Jahvid Best has been on IR since week 6 after suffering his 2^nd concussion. They tried to flip backup Jerome Harrison for Ronnie Brown but the deal was nixed when Harrison failed the physical. As most people remember, he turned out to have a tumor. He hasn’t played for Detroit since week 3.

The Lions found Kevin Smith wandering around on the street somewhere and brought him back. He actually had an immediate impact but he’s been banged up. He injured his Achilles in practice this week but he’s probable for this weekend. Johnson is also nursing an Achilles injury but he’s also probable.

A few other players are on IR but the Lions are fairly healthy. 3 defender who have missed time recently are listed as probable for this weekend. CB Aaron Berry (shoulder) has missed the last 3 games. Safety Louis Delmas (MCL tear) has missed the last 5. DT Corey Williams (Hip) missed last week.

New Orleans: The Saints were very fortunate in the health department for most of the season. Actually, kicker Garrett Hartley missing the season with a hip injury might have been their worst loss until recently. Like many teams, the Saints have seen the injuries pile up a bit late in the year.

RB Mark Ingram (toe) had been trying to heal up during the last few weeks in preparation for the postseason but he had a setback during practice last week and has been placed on IR.

The Saints linebacking corps have taken a hit recently. Jonathan Casillas has missed 4 straight with a knee injury and has been limited in practice this week. He’s questionable. Will Herring suffered a knee injury in week 16 and is on IR. Jonathan Vilma also went down with a knee injury that night and he missed last week. Luckily for New Orleans his status has been upgraded to probable for this Saturday.

As great a night as that week 16 MNF win over the Falcons was for the Saints, it did prove to be rather costly in terms of injuries. WR Lance Moore injured a hamstring that night. He missed last week and he’s now been ruled out for the game this weekend.

Safety Malcolm Jenkins (neck) and TE John Gilmore (toe) missed last week and are questionable for Saturday. WR Robert Meachem bruised a knee in the season finale and is also listed as questionable.

Series History

These two teams have faced off against each other 21 times since 1968. The Saints hold an 11-9-1 edge in the all-time series and they are 8-3 against the Lions at home. This will be the first meeting in the playoffs.

The Saints have won the last 3 matchups (all since 2008) and have covered in all 3. The Saints won 42-7 at Detroit in 2008; 45-27 at home in 2009; and 31-17 at home in week 13 of this season on Sunday night football.

Recap of Week 13 Meeting

The game between the Lions and Saints at the Superdome in week 13 was flexed to Sunday night. The game was somewhat competitive and featured plenty of offense, but it probably wasn’t quite the electrifying shootout that NBC hoped for. The Saints won it 31-17, despite the Lions outgaining them 466-438 (+28) and making 4 more 1^st downs (25-21).

As expected, both QB’s had big games. Matt Stafford was 31 of 44 for 408 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. On the downside, he was also sacked 3 times for -29 yards. The Lions also got to Drew Brees twice but those 2 sacks only amounted to a loss of 4 yards. Brees completed 26 of 36 passes for 342 yards, 3 TD’s, and no picks. Thus, while the Saints had only a 3-2 edge in sacks, their edge in sack yardage was 29-4.

One key to the Saints win was getting off the field on 3^rd down against the Detroit offense. The Lions were just 2 for 11 on 3^rd down and 0 for 1 on 4^th down. The Saints were 0 for 1 on 4^th down but they converted on 6 of 12 3^rd downs. The Lions had a 10-minute edge in time of possession, but the Saints forced the game’s only turnover.

Also, Detroit didn’t do as good a job taking advantage of scoring chances as the Saints did. The Saints scored TD’s on both of their red zone opportunities, while the Lions were 2 for 3. The Lions were just 1 for 3 on FG tries, while the Saints made their only FG attempt of the game.

There was one other predictable but key stat from this game. The Lions committed 11 penalties for 107 yards.

It took awhile for the offenses to get going. The score was just 3-0 New Orleans after 1 quarter of play. The Saints would dominate play in the 2^nd quarter.

They went on an impressive 97-yard drive and scored the 1^st TD of the game to make it 10-0 early in the 2^nd. Just a few moments later, Drew Brees hooked up with Robert Meachem on a 67-yard bomb for a TD. All of the sudden it was 17-0 New Orleans, half way through the 2^nd quarter.

The Lions responded, marching 80 yards in just about 5 and a half minutes for a score, cutting the deficit to 10 with 2:28 remaining in the half. The Saints didn’t flinch. Brees and the New Orleans offense matched Detroit’s 80-yard drive for a TD, and did it in barely over 2 minutes.

With just 22 seconds left before halftime the Lions got the ball back at their own 27. Trailing 24-7, Detroit had to try and use every second they had to try and get back in the game. Stafford somehow hooked up with Titus Young on a 49-yard completion to the New Orleans 24. Young was knocked out of bounds, stopping the clock.

Detroit had all 3 of their timeouts left. The problem was that there were just 8 seconds left in the half. This was key, as a TD here would have been huge, but they would barely have enough time for one more play before they would have to try a FG if they didn’t score.

They called timeout to come up with a strategy but nothing came of it. Stafford tried to hit Brandon Pettigrew and the pass fell incomplete with 3 seconds left. Jason Hanson (who has been Detroit’s kicker for at least 47 years) came on to try a 42-yarder but Patrick Robinson got in and blocked it, keeping the score at 24-7.

There would be nothing positive for the Lions to take with them to the locker room. That blocked kick was big, as the Lions would get the ball first in the 2^nd half, and they had already comeback from a handful of big deficits this season.

Taking the ball to start the 3^rd quarter, the Lions quickly marched down the field and into the New Orleans red zone. On 2^nd and 5 from the Saints’ 7-yard line, Maurice Morris rushed for a pickup of 4. It was going to be 3^rd and 1 from the 3. However, Young was called for unnecessary roughness, a 15-yard penalty that pushed the Lions back to the 18 and made it 3^rd and 16.

Their odds of scoring a TD on the drive went from rosy to poor just like that. Had the penalty not occurred, the Lions would have been able to go for the 1^st down or the touchdown on 4^th down if they had been stopped on 3^rd and 1. Even if they didn’t score the TD, all they needed was 1 yard, and then they would have had 4 plays to try and score from the 2.

Instead, they wound up having to get a big gain when they didn’t have much room to stretch out the defense. A check down pass to Morris left them with a 4^th and 11 from the 13 and they settled for a Hanson FG that made it 24-10. It was another letdown. The Saints then got the ball for their first possession of the 2^nd half and quickly moved into Detroit territory. However, the defense finally came up with a stop, breaking up a pass on 3^rd and 7 from their own 42 to force a punt.

Stafford then led the offense on an 88-yard march for a touchdown that made it a 1-score game. The only trouble was that Detroit’s two scoring drives had taken 11 minutes and 35 seconds off the clock and there were just 43 seconds remaining in the 3^rd. There was plenty of time left for the offense, but Detroit’s defense had little margin for error.

They came up big on the ensuing New Orleans drive, forcing a 3-and-out to get the ball back to Detroit’s offense, and put what figured to be a tired Saints defense back on the field. On the first play of the ensuing Lions possession, Stafford hooked up with Nate Burleson down the sideline for a gain of 47 yards and a 1^st down at the New Orleans 35. But now the Saints defense came up big.

The Lions were stuck facing 4^th and 12 from the 37. They were left with two options, neither of them all that great. They could go for it on 4^th and 12 or they could send Hanson out for a FG try of 55-yards. Their chances of picking up 12 on 4^th down might not be too high but if they converted they had a decent shot at going on to score and tie the game.

Kicking the FG, on the other hand, also carried a good deal of risk, and the reward wasn’t all that great. If Hanson made the kick, they would still have to give Brees and the Saints the ball back trailing by 4. A touchdown by New Orleans would pretty much ice the game. If Hanson missed, the Saints would get the ball back with even better field position, and they would only need a FG to make it a 2-score game again.

There was one other conservative option for Detroit. They could have taken a delay of game penalty and then tried to pin the Saints with a punt. But against such an offense, 20 or 30 yards of field position might not have seemed like enough of a benefit to give up entirely on the scoring opportunity.

In hindsight, I think the best choice would have been to go for the 1^st down. Punting would have been the 2^nd best option. The Lions went with what seems to me like the worst option (again, I realize the benefit of hindsight is in play here). Hanson had enough leg, but he missed wide left. New Orleans took over at their 45 with 12:38 to play. Predictably, the Saints went 55 yards on 7 plays in 2:54 for a backbreaking touchdown that made it 31-17 with 9:44 remaining.

There was still time left for the Lions but they had almost no room for error. They got the ball back and moved into Saints territory. They had a 2^nd and 3 at the New Orleans 33 with just under 7 minutes to go when Burleson was called for offensive pass interference for the 2^nd time in the game. They wound up facing 4^th and 13 from the 43 with 6:52 to go.

Once again the Lions were left to choose between bad options. They could go for it on 4^th and 13 or they could punt. Their chances of getting 13 yards on 4^th down were not too high. However, if they picked up the 1^st down, they would then have a shot at scoring a touchdown with enough time left to kick it back to the Saints, stop them, and then score another TD to tie it. If they punted they would have to stop the Saints, score a touchdown, and then either stop the Saints again or recover an onsides kick, and then score another touchdown. Recall that there was only 6:52 left on the clock. The Lions decided to punt.

Once again, while neither option was great, I still think they made the wrong choice. The Lions defense was able to force a 3-and-out and the Saints had to punt from their own end zone. Yet when the Lions got the ball back there was just 4:53 left in the game and they were at their own 36.

The Lions obviously had to hurry now and on the first play of the drive Burleson caught a pass for 42 yards and a 1^st down at the New Orleans 22. However, Burleson was called for pass interference yet again, wiping out the big gain. A couple plays later, a personal foul on Pettigrew left the Lions with 3^rd and 25 from their own 21. Stafford was then dropped all the way back at the 9 for a loss of 15.

But then the refs hit the Saints with a penalty to give the Lions a very faint pulse. Roughing the passer was called and the Lions got a 1^st down, but now time was really running out on them. On 4^th and 2 from the Detroit 39, Stafford was picked off by Tracy Porter and the Saints took over at their own 48 with just 2:58 to play.

The Saints decided to go for it on 4^th and 1 from the Detroit 29 and Mark Ingram was stopped short, but now only 61 seconds were left on the clock. 4 plays later the clock ran out and the Saints had a 31-17 victory.

Team Playoff Histories

Detroit: This will be Detroit’s 15^th playoff appearance (first came in 1935) and their 1^st since 1999. The Lions have won 4 NFL championships and have played in 5 NFL championship games. All of that occurred prior to 1958. They have played in only 1 conference championship game and have never been to the Super Bowl.

The Lions are 7-10 all-time in the playoffs and 2-9 at home. They are 0-6 in the WC round (0-5 at home). Detroit is 5-9 in their opening game of the postseason. They have lost their opening game of the playoffs in their last 5 postseason appearances. The Lions have lost 6 straight and 9 of their last 10 playoff games going back to 1970. Their last win was a 38-6 victory over the Cowboys at home in the 1991 divisional round.

This has already been a dream season for Lions fans. They snapped a streak of 10 straight losing seasons. They also snapped a streak of 3 consecutive double digit loss seasons. Prior to this year they had lost at least 10 games in 9 of the last 10 seasons.

During the first decade of the 2000’s, the Lions were what the Bengals were during the last decade of the 1900’s: the worst franchise in the NFL. From 2001-2010, the Lions lost 13 or more games in a season 5 times, including 3 seasons of at least 14 losses, with the lowest point of course coming in 2008 when they went 0-16.

This will obviously be the first playoff game for all of Detroit’s star players (Stafford, Johnson, Suh) and for Jim Schwartz as a head coach.

New Orleans: This will be the 9^th playoff appearance for the Saints (all since 1987), the 3^rd straight, and the 4^th in the 6 years of the Brees/Payton era. The Saints have played in 2 conference championship games and they were victorious in their only Super Bowl appearance. All of that has occurred during the Brees/Payton era.

The Saints failed to make the postseason in their first 20 years as a franchise (1967-1986). From 1987-1992 they reached the playoffs 4 times in 6 years under Jim Mora but they did not win a single playoff game. They would finally get their 1^st win in the playoffs in 2000, but that was their only playoff appearance in the 13 seasons from 1993-2005. Brees and Payton came to New Orleans in 2006 and they’ve been a force ever since.

The Saints are 5-7 all-time in the playoffs (4-3 at home) and just 1-5 in the WC round (1-3 at home). They are 3-5 in their opening game of the postseason. Last year they lost to Seattle on the road in the WC round. They have won 4 straight at home in the playoffs. The Saints are 4-2 in the playoffs during the Brees/Payton era, going 3-0 at home. They are 0-1 in the WC round (0-0 at home) during that time.

Under Payton the Saints have never had a double digit loss season. This is their 4^th straight non-losing season and their 5^th in the last 6 years. They have posted double digit wins and reached the playoffs in each of the last 3 seasons and in 4 of the 6 years under Payton. This was their 3^rd straight season with at least 11 wins.

Brees is 4-3 in his career in the playoffs (3-1 at home) and 0-2 in the WC round (0-1 on the road. He lost his only playoff game as a member of the Chargers.

Keys to the Game

Detroit: This is going to be a real test for this young Lions. Many of the key players will be experiencing the playoffs for the first time. The Superdome has become one of the hardest places to play in the league and the place will be nuts on Saturday night. This won’t be the easiest place and time for the Lions to finally play smart and play with poise, but they’ll have to if they want to have a chance at pulling off the upset.

If there’s a positive to playing in New Orleans for the Lions it’s that at least they’ll be playing on turf and indoors, which is the setting they were built for. They’ve also already played the Saints at the Superdome in primetime this season. They’ll need to learn from that experience.

It starts with being way more disciplined and not killing themselves with penalties. They also need to avoid 3^rd and long situations on offense and they can’t settle for field goals. They got several big plays in the first meeting and they’ll need more of those this time. Calvin Johnson is going to have to make some big plays for them to win.

Defensively, the Lions have to limit the number of big plays by the Saints offense. In addition, their front line has to shut down the running game and get pressure on Brees without having to blitz. They have to intercept when Brees makes a mistake.

Accomplishing all of this may sound like an impossible task but the Lions could pull it off if they play their best game of the year.

New Orleans: In week 13, it took a while for the Saints to get going on offense. This time, getting off to a fast start could very likely rattle the Lions and cause them to make the sort of mistakes that have hurt them this season. The Lions dug out of a big hole to get back in the game in the first meeting, but in the playoffs, at the Superdome, if the Saints jump on Detroit this time they might fall apart.

Offensively for the Saints it’s pretty simple. They just have to do their thing and make sure they convert red zone chances into touchdowns. Mixing in running plays will be important, even if they aren’t very successful, as they want to take some time off the clock and therefore limit the number of possessions for the Lions.

Defensively, the Saints need to shut down the run and do a good job getting off the field on 3^rd down like they did last game.

Sunday’s Early Game

Atlanta (+3) @ New York Giants

Pick: Falcons pull off the upset

Comments: This is obviously the biggest game of the weekend for me. It’s in New York (or New Jersey) so you know what to expect in terms of the atmosphere.

The Giants looked pretty damn impressive burying the Cowboys in the final game of the season, so they ride into the playoffs with momentum. They also have the memories of their stunning run to the title in 2007. And yet, this game figures to be yet another trial for Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin. It’s remarkable that they would have anything left to prove after that historic ’07 playoff run, but that just shows how inconsistent they’ve been.

The Falcons have more to prove, both in terms of this particular season, and in terms of the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. This is the 4^th consecutive winning season for the franchise and the 3^rd playoff appearance in 4 years, but they have not yet broken through in the playoffs. Lack of success in the playoffs became failure in the playoffs last season when they got embarrassed on their home field as the #1 seed by the Packers in the divisional round. This will be about taking that next step and winning a playoff game for Ryan, Smith, and this Falcons team.

This is Fox’s game of the weekend and of course it will be Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. They don’t do much for me but I guess I’ve just sort of gotten used to them, in much the same way that I’ve gotten used to Buck and Tim McCarver calling baseball’s postseason.

Buck doesn’t add anything to the experience but he at least doesn’t distract in the way that, say, Mike Patrick does. Aikman too, doesn’t bring much to the table, but he’s rarely intrusive (the same obviously cannot be said of McCarver).

I think that this will be a good game. Either team could win it.

Playoff Position

Atlanta: The Falcons obliterated the Jags on Thursday night in the first game of week 15 to clinch a winning record with their 9^th win. At that time, it looked like they still had some work to do to wrap up a playoff spot. However, by the time they played again on Monday night in the last game of week 16, they had gotten so much help from other teams that they had clinched a playoff spot.

They still had a shot at winning the division but those hopes were dashed that night as they were blown away by the Saints. Even if they had beaten the Saints, the Falcons still probably wouldn’t have won the division because New Orleans only needed to beat Carolina at home in week 17 to clinch.

The real cost of the loss on Monday night appeared to be that it now put them behind the Lions in the playoff seeding. It looked highly likely that the Falcons would end up in the #6 spot and have to go right back to New Orleans to play the Saints again in the WC round. The Lions would clinch the #5 seed if they could beat the Packers—who would be resting their starters—or if the Falcons lost to the Bucs in week 17.

It didn’t look good for the Dirty Birds. But then Matt Flynn appeared. The Lions fell in Green Bay, 45-41, opening the door for Atlanta. The Falcons jumped out to a 42-0 lead and went on to win 45-24, stealing the #5 spot and avoiding a trip back to the Big Easy.

New York Giants: The Giants were the last of the 12 playoff teams to qualify for the postseason. The Giants hosted the Cowboys in the final game of the NFL’s regular season. The winner would go on to the playoffs as the NFC East division winner and the #4 seed; the loser would go home. The G-Men pounded the Boys, 31-14, to take the division title and get into the playoffs as the NFC’s #4 seed.

Records and Trends

Atlanta: The Falcons are 10-6 overall on the season (7-8-1 ATS) and 4-4 on the road (3-5 ATS). They have won 3 of 4 and 5 of their last 7. They are 3-1 in their last 4 ATS. The Falcons have a +3.2 average scoring differential. They ended the season with a 45-24 victory over the Bucs at home.

New York Giants: The G-Men are 9-7 on the year overall (8-7-1 ATS) and 4-4 at home (3-4-1 ATS). Despite their winning record they have a -0.4 average scoring differential. The Giants have won 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4. They have won 2 straight and 4 of 5 ATS.

Team Stats and Rankings

Atlanta: The Falcons are a balanced team. They don’t do anything great but they don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Football Outsiders ranks the Falcons 12^th in offense, 6^th in defense, 22^nd in special teams and 8^th overall. Atlanta is 7^th in scoring offense (25.1) and 10^th in total offense (376.6). They are just 18^th in scoring defense (21.9) but 12^th in total defense (333.6).

Defensively, the Falcons are at their best when they are forcing turnovers, and they are 10^th in takeaways this season. The Falcons usually don’t beat themselves. They are tied 7^th in giveaways this season and they have a +8 turnover differential (tied 5^th). The Falcons have always been a disciplined team under Mike Smith. This season they are 10^th in penalties and 7^th in penalty yards.

The Falcons have been pretty good in the red zone on both sides of the ball this season, as they are 13^th in offensive red zone TD% (52.5%) and 8^th in defensive red zone TD% (46.8%).

The Falcons have 2 INT TD’s and 1 FR TD. They’ve been hurt by allowing some big defensive and special teams plays. The Falcons have given up 2 INT TD’s, 2 FR TD’s, a blocked punt for a TD, and a safety.

New York Giants: Much like the Falcons, the Giants don’t really excel in any area, but they aren’t really awful in any area either. They are 9^th in scoring offense (24.6) and 8^th in total offense (385.1). If there is a weakness for the G-Men it is on defense. They are 25^th in scoring defense (25.0) and 27^th in total defense (376.4).

Looking at those numbers you would probably say that the Giants are a poor defensive team, but it’s hard to say that when we know what their pass rush is capable of doing. Football Outsiders ranks the Giants 7^th in offense, 20^th in defense, 16^th in special teams, and 12^th overall.

The Giants have been tough to stop in the red zone, as they are 8^th in RZ TD% (52.5%), but they haven’t been very good at stopping teams from scoring in the red zone on the other end. They are 23^rd in defensive RZ TD% (55.7%). This season the Giants were tied 16^th in giveaways, but they were tied 5^th in takeaways, and they have a +7 turnover differential, good for tied 7^th in the NFL.

The Giants have a reputation for beating themselves but they were 11^th in penalties and 9^th in penalty yards so it isn’t usually because of a lack of discipline. They have returned a fumble for a TD and notched 2 safeties. They have allowed 3 pick-sixes and a safety.

Injury News

Atlanta: The Falcons have been pretty fortunate again this season in that they have had most of their key players healthy throughout the season. They lost FB Ovie Mughelli to a knee injury in week 6. That was a bigger loss than the stats show. Mughelli’s excellent blocking and leadership are missed.

Like many teams, injuries have started to pile up on the Falcons late in the season. DB Kelvin Hayden dislocated his toe in week 11 and was never able to come back. LB Mike Peterson went down in week 16 and has been placed on IR. That injury was most unfortunate because Peterson had been filling in for LB Stephen Nicholas who is dealing with a toe injury and has missed 4 of the last 5 games. He’s listed as doubtful for this Sunday.

CB Brent Grimes suffered a knee injury in week 12 and missed the next 3 games. He came back for week 16 and was then held out again last week. He’s probable for this weekend and it is huge for the Falcons to have him in the lineup.

New York Giants: The Giants always seem to be dealing with injuries and it was no different this season. WR and KR Domenik Hixon tore an ACL in week 2 and is on IR. LT William Beatty suffered an eye injury and went on IR after week 11. Tackle Stacy Andrews suffered a lung injury and went on IR after week 12.

The Giants have a number of players who are dealing with injuries heading into the playoffs. KR Da’Rel Scott hyper extended his knee last week and is questionable for Sunday. TE Jake Ballard missed the last two games with a knee injury and but is probable this week. LB Mark Herzlich has missed the last 5 with an ankle injury. He’s questionable for this one. CB Corey Webster is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Giants’ biggest strength is at the DE position and a couple of their star pass rushers are ailing heading into this game. DE Justin Tuck has a left shoulder injury but is questionable. DE Osiumenyiora came back last week after missing 4 games due to an ankle injury. He re-aggravated the injury but is probable for Sunday.

Series History

These teams have played 20 times since 1966 and they have split the games 10-10. The Giants have won the last 3 meetings, all since 2006. They won the last meeting in 2009 at home, 34-31, in overtime. The Falcons did beat the spread in that game. This will be the first ever meeting in the playoffs.

The Falcons are actually 7-2 all-time against the Giants on the road. They had won 5straight against the Giants on the road prior to the loss in 2009. The Falcons last win against the Giants was in 2004.

Team Playoff Histories

Atlanta: This is the Falcons 11^th appearance in the playoffs (all since 1978), their 2^nd straight, and their 3^rd in the last 4 years. This will be their 5^th appearance in the last 10 years. They have played in 2 conference championship games and 1 Super Bowl. They are 6-10 all-time in the playoffs (3-7 on the road) and 3-3 in the WC round (2-3 on the road).

The Falcons are 5-5 in their opening game of the playoffs and they have lost their opening game in their last 2 trips to the postseason. They have lost their last 3 playoff games, with their last win coming at home in the 2004 divisional round against the Rams (47-17). They have lost their last 3 playoff games on the road.

Prior to the arrival of Matt Ryan and Mike Smith in 2008, the Falcons had never had back-to-back winning seasons. From 2008-2011, the Falcons have now had 4 straight winning seasons. They have made the playoffs and recorded double digit wins in back-to-back seasons and in 3 of the last 4 years.

They have won the division once during the Ryan/Smith era but they have yet to breakthrough in the playoffs. The Falcons are 0-2 in the playoffs during the Ryan/Smith era (0-1 on the road) and 0-1 in the WC round (0-1 on the road).

New York Giants: This is the Giants 31^st playoff appearance (first came in 1933), their 5^th in the last 7 years, and their first since 2008. They have a long history of success in the NFL. Including Super Bowls, the Giants have played in 18 NFL championship games, winning 6 NFL championships. They have played in 4 conference championship games and 4 Super Bowls, winning 3 Super Bowls.

They are 20-24 all-time in the playoffs (11-9 at home) and 5-4 in the WC round (2-2 at home). In their opening game of the playoffs the Giants are 12-18 all-time. They lost their last playoff game in the 2008 WC round against the Eagles (11-23).

They have lost their last 2 playoff games at home, with their last home playoff win coming in the 2000 NFC championship game against the Vikings. Their last win in the playoffs was the 2007 Super Bowl victory over the Patriots.

This will be the 5^th playoff appearance of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. The Giants are 4-3 in the playoffs during that time (0-2 at home) and 1-2 in the WC round (0-1 at home). Under Coughlin and Manning the Giants have had 7 straight non-losing seasons. Over the last 7 years, the Giants have had 5 winning seasons, 5 playoff appearances, 4 double digit win seasons, and 3 division titles.

This will be the 9^th playoff appearance for Coughlin as a head coach. His teams are 8-7 in the playoffs. He went 4-4 in the playoffs with the Jaguars.

Keys to the Game

Atlanta: The Falcons are looking for their first playoff win of this era and they need to play within themselves and not let the pressure get to them. Offensively, the Falcons must establish and maintain their running game throughout. They need to use Jaquizz Rodgers on draws, screens, and shovel passes as a change of pace for Michael Turner and to limit the Giants pass rush.

Play action will be an important part of the Atlanta offense but outside of that Matt Ryan needs to get rid of the ball quickly because the line simply won’t be able to contain the DE’s for that long. Atlanta receivers have to avoid the drops that have plagued them all season and the Falcons need a big day from Julio Jones.

Defensively, the Falcons must limit the big plays in the passing game and they have to pickoff any mistakes that Manning makes. Big John Abraham must be a factor in this game as a pass rushing force. Finally, if the weather is nasty, the Falcons will have to be the tough, nasty team that they can be even though they are a dome team.

New York Giants: The Giants will want to shut down the Falcons rushing attack and make Matt Ryan beat them. They’ll try to dominate with their pass rushing ends so that they don’t have to blitz to get pressure. They’ll be trying to force Ryan into making the mistakes that have hurt him in his previous 2 playoff games. For the Giants secondary the key will be to avoid getting burned for big plays.

Offensively, the Giants will try to exploit the Falcons secondary. If the weather is nasty Eli Manning will have to have one of his good games.

Sunday’s Late Game

Pittsburgh (-9) @ Denver

Pick: Steelers cover

Comments: We all know what this one will be about. Will God allow Tim Tebow to deliver another miraculous win for Denver? Or will the toughest team in the NFL bury His “magical” season once and for all? The altitude will be high. The atmosphere will be rapturous.

Tebow mania has taken a hit recently, as the Timmy and the Broncos have fallen on their faces in their last 3 games, only getting into the playoffs because the Raiders couldn’t take care of their business. But you can bet that the Tebowites will be tuned in for this one and the crowd will be in a frenzy as long as the Broncos stay in the game.

The Steeler Nation may be the only force big enough to match Timmy’s Christian Army. But Pittsburgh will be without two key players (Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Clark) and they have a slew of others banged up, not the least of whom is QB Big Ben Roethlisberger.

This will be CBS’ game of the weekend. Jim Nance and Phil Simms will call the action. Nance can get a bit melodramatic at times (if that’s the right term) and you may grow weary of him in the spring, but he’s a solid play-by-play man. Simms is a bit too mouthy for my tastes outside of the booth, but I think he’s one of the better analysts of the present time. The only downside to CBS calling the game is you know we will be hit with endless promos for silly crime scene dramas and 60 Minutes (except on the west coast). Each one will of course be read by Nance: “He’s the leader of one of the most powerful political groups in the country, so why is he trying to fit an oversized inflatable baseball bat into his own anus? Find out tonight on 60 Minutes.”

The spread suggests that Steeler Black and Gold will crush Timmy’s Orange. But there’s that thing in the back of your mind that says that if the Broncos hang around—the way they did for most of the season and the way middling teams have against the Steelers in recent weeks—Tebow may pull something off. For those of us not on the Tebow Train, one thing is for certain. On Sunday, we are all Steelers.

Playoff Position

Pittsburgh: Going into week 16, the Steelers had 11 wins and had already clinched a playoff bid, but their seeding was still very much wide open. If they lost their game in Cleveland, the Steelers would be the #5 seed. If they won their game they would still wind up as the #5 seed if the Ravens won at Cincinnati.

However, if the Steelers won and the Ravens lost, Pittsburgh would win the AFC North. In that circumstance, if the Patriots lost to Buffalo, the Steelers would get the #1 seed in the AFC, otherwise they would be the #2 seed. So the Steelers certainly had something to play for, although they would need some help. They didn’t get any.

The Pats fell behind big against Buffalo but came back to win easily, winning the #1 seed. Later in the day, while the Steelers were struggling to close out the Browns, the Ravens finished off the Bengals, clinching the division. The Steelers hung on to beat the Browns, but they wound up with the #5 seed anyway.

Denver: At one incredible point in the season, the Broncos looked like shoe-ins for the playoffs. Then reality finally set-in and they lost back-to-back games to fall to 8-7 heading into week 17. They still held control of their own destiny. If they beat the Chiefs at home they would win the AFC West. If the Broncos lost, they could still win the West if the Raiders fell to the Chargers.

Denver failed to take care of things on their own, losing 3-7 at home for their 3^rd straight loss to finish the season 8-8. However, the Broncos lucked out again, as the Chargers pulled away from the Raiders in Oakland, winning 38-26. When the Raiders lost, the Broncos clinched the AFC West division title and backed into the playoffs as the #4 seed.

Records and Trends

Pittsburgh: The Steelers are 12-4 overall on the season but just 7-9 ATS. They are 5-3 on the road (2-6 ATS). The Steelers have a +6.1 average scoring differential. They have won their last 2 games and 6 of their last 7, but they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4. The Steelers have won 4 of their last 5 on the road.

Denver: The Broncos are just 8-8 overall this season (7-9 ATS). They are only 3-5 at home and just 1-7 ATS at home. The Broncos have an embarrassing -5.1 average scoring differential. They have lost 3 straight overall and 4 straight ATS. They have lost their last 2 at home.

Team Stats and Rankings

Pittsburgh: As usual, Pittsburgh’s strength is on defense. They lead the league in both scoring defense (14.2) total defense (271.8). Amazingly, the Steelers are 32^nd out of 32 teams in the NFL in takeaways. That’s bizarre and not very good for the Steelers, who often have a few turnovers offensively due to Big Ben Roethlisberger’s style of play. The Steelers are tied 20^th in giveaways and tied 28^th in turnover differential at -13. The Steelers are always targeted by the referees, and this year they are 16^th in penalties and 20^th in penalty yards.

It was a bit of a struggle offensively this year for the Steelers due to mainly to injuries. They are 22^nd in scoring offense (20.3) and 12^th in total offense (372.3). The Steelers rank 18^th in offensive RZ TD% (50.9%) and surprisingly they are just 17^th in that category on defense (54.8%).

The Steelers have 1 PR TD, 1 FR TD, and 2 safeties. They have allowed just 1 FR TD. Football Outsiders ranks Pittsburgh 6^th in offense, 7^th in defense, 9^th in special teams, and 2^nd overall.

Denver: The Broncos aren’t very good at anything. In fact, it’s hard to explain why they are in the playoffs. Denver is 25^th in scoring offense (19.3) and 24^th in scoring defense (24.4). They are 23^rd in total offense (316.6) and 20^th in total defense (357.8). They are tied 25^th in giveaways, tied 28^th in takeaways, and tied 26^th in turnover differential (-12). They are 17^th in penalties and 14^th in penalty yards.

Denver is 23^rd in offensive RZ TD% (47.2%) and 15^th in defensive RZ TD% (51.9%). They have 2 punt return TD’s and 3 pick-sixes, but they have allowed a PR TD, 3 INT TD’s, 3 FR TD’s, and a safety. Football Outsiders ranks them 23^rd in offense, 19^th in defense, 15^th in special teams, and 24^th overall. How are they here? How?

Injury News

Pittsburgh: The Steelers are always having to cope with injuries and it has been the same story this season. In fact, the Steelers would be my favorite to get to the Super Bowl out of the AFC if they weren’t so banged up entering the playoffs. Punter Daniel Sepulveda has been on IR with a knee injury since week 9. NT Chris Hoke (neck) has been on IR since week 7. Backup RB Jonathan Dwyer (foot)—who they could really use right now—has been on IR since week 14.

Then last week, starting RB Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL. Making matters worse, starting FS Ryan Clark won’t be able to play this week, as he has Sickle Cell Trait Condition which keeps him from traveling to high altitude.

But it gets worse. 2^nd string RB Mewelde Moore (knee) has missed the last 2 games and is doubtful this week. Center Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) has practiced this week but it doesn’t look like he’ll be available for Sunday. Pouncey’s backup at center—Doug Legursky—is probable for Sunday but he missed last week with a shoulder injury.

Stud LB LaMarr Woodley’s season has been wrecked by injuries and he’s still not healthy. He’s probable but he’s missed the last 2 and 6 of the last 8 with a hamstring injury.

And then of course there is Big Ben. He tweaked that high ankle sprain again in practice this week but he’s going to play. The problem is that while Big Ben at 50% is still not bad, it’s nowhere near Big Ben at 80 or 90 or 100 percent.

Denver: The only area where the Broncos haven’t been super lucky this season is in the health department, although they have still been pretty fortunate. DT Kevin Vickerson (ankle) has been on IR since week 7. RB Knowshon Moreno tore his ACL and has been on IR since week 11. CB Cassius Vaughn broke his fibula and has been on IR since week 13.

Guard Chris Kuper dislocated an ankle and broke his tibula and fibula in week 17. So yeah, he’s not going to play. FB Spencer Larsen is doubtful after hurting a knee in week 17. Guard Russ Hochstein left last week’s game with an undisclosed injury and is questionable for Sunday.

Finally, FS Brian Dawkins re-aggravated a neck injury in week 16 and did not play last week. He’s only listed as questionable so perhaps he’s going to give it one more shot.

Series History

These two teams have played 27 times since 1970 and surprisingly the Broncos hold a 16-10-1 edge in the all-time series (9-5-1 at home). Not many teams have a better record than that against Pittsburgh since 1970. Pittsburgh won the last meeting, 28-10, in Denver in 2009. Denver’s last win over the Steelers was in 2007, 31-28, at home.

They have met 6 times previously in the playoffs, with the teams splitting the games 3-3 (2-2 in Denver). They first met in the playoffs in the Broncos magical 1977 season, with Denver winning at home in the divisional round, 34-21. The next year they met in the divisional round again, this time in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers won 33-10 on their way to their 3^rd Super Bowl title.

In 1984 the teams met in the divisional round again, with the Steelers winning 24-17 at Mile High. In 1989 they met in the divisional round again, and the Steelers nearly pulled off the upset in Denver, but the Broncos held on to win 24-23 on their way to their 3^rd AFC championship in 4 years.

In 1997 the two met in the AFC championship game at Pittsburgh, with the Broncos winning 24-21 on their way to their first Super Bowl victory. Finally, in 2005, the two teams met up in the AFC championship game in Denver, with the Steelers winning 34-17 on their way to their 5^th world championship.

Team Playoff Histories

Pittsburgh: The Steelers have perhaps the most illustrious history in professional football. This will be their 27^th postseason appearance (first was in 1947) and their 26^th since 1972. As you can see, the Steelers didn’t have a lot of success during the first few decades of their existence, but they’ve made up for it with excellence throughout their last 40 or so years. They have played in 15 conference championship games and 8 Super Bowls. They have won 6 Super Bowl championships.

They are 33-20 overall in the playoffs (7-9 on the road) and 4-3 in the WC round (2-1 on the road). The Steelers are an excellent 18-8 in their opening game of the playoffs. They lost their last playoff game, in last year’s Super Bowl to Green Bay, 25-31. They have won their last 3 playoff games on the road.

Mike Tomlin took over as Steelers head coach in 2007 following a pair of legendary coaches, and he has started his own legend. The Steelers have now had 5 straight winning seasons under Tomlin. They have won double digit games and made the playoffs in 4 of Tomlin’s 5 years as head coach.

Under Tomlin, the Steelers have had 3 seasons with 12 or more wins, won 3 division titles, played in 2 Super Bowls, and won 1 NFL championship. The Steelers are 5-2 in the playoffs under Tomlin (0-0 on the road) and 0-1 in the WC round (0-0 on the road).

Big Ben is 10-3 in the playoffs (3-0 on the road) and 1-1 in the WC round (1-0 on the road). He is also 1-0 against the Broncos in the playoffs and 1-0 in Denver in the playoffs.

Denver: The Broncos got their start in pro football much later than the Steelers, but like Pittsburgh, they went through years of despair before becoming one of the great franchises of the NFL. This is their 18^th playoff appearance (all since 1977) and their first since 2005. The Broncos have played in 8 conference championship games and 6 Super Bowls. They have 2 NFL titles.

The Broncos are 17-15 overall in the postseason but 12-3 at home. However, they are just 1-6 in the WC round (1-0 at home). They are 8-9 in their opening game of the postseason. In their last playoff game, the Broncos lost to the Steelers, 17-34, at home in the AFC Championship Game in 2005.

The Broncos are back in the postseason but they have now posted 5 straight non-winning seasons and 6 straight seasons with 9 wins or less. Obviously this is Tim Tebow’s first time in the playoffs. John Fox was 5-3 in the playoffs as head coach of the Panthers.

Keys to the Game

Pittsburgh: The only reason that there is some concern about this game for the Steelers is because of the health or lack of health of their O-line, running backs, and quarterback. They are just banged up all over to be honest. They need to try and figure out a way to run early on. If nothing works, they need to abandon it and try screens, shovel passes, WR screens, etc. They must protect Big Ben because he won’t be as mobile as usual. They have to get big plays in the passing game from their speedy receivers.

Defensively, the Steelers need to shutdown the running game and put everything on Tebow. That’s the key. They also want to be solid in special teams in a game like this. If the Steelers can jump ahead early it will limit the impact of the crowd, force Denver to take some chances on offense, and put doubt in the minds of the slumping Broncos.

Finally, if they have the chance, the Steelers need to put the Broncos away or else they risk something weird happening.

Denver: For the Broncos to win, they must completely shut down the Pittsburgh rushing attack and get after Big Ben. They have to get off the field on 3^rd down and avoid giving up big plays. They need a strong special teams game.

Offensively, the Broncos must stay with the run and eat clock to limit the number of Pittsburgh possessions. If the Broncos can stay in the game, perhaps the crowd, Tebow, and the defense can make something happen. But hopefully not.