The NFL Blog: 2011 Conference Championship Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread: (3-1); Straight Up: (2-2)

Season: Vs. Spread: (137-118-9); Straight Up: (178-86)

Divisional Round Review: I guess it was a better week for me. I was only 2-2 again picking winners, but I went 3-1 ATS to get to .500 ATS for the playoffs. The Falcons couldn’t lose because they were already out of the playoffs. Tebow got crushed; the Saints lost a heartbreaker; the Packers found out what it feels like to lose badly as the #1 seed at home in the divisional round; the teams that I’d like to see in the Super Bowl now that the Falcons are out (Pats and Niners) are still alive. Plus, the first game of the weekend (Saints at Niners) was a classic for the ages.

Championship Round Preview: In a way, these aren’t the most exciting conference championship matchups. The Saints and Packers are both out in the NFC and the Steelers got knocked out in the AFC. But the Patriots-Ravens matchup is interesting because it’s Brady’s offense vs. Ray Lewis’ defense (and yes, I realize Ray is more of a symbol now, but it’s still his defense). In the NFC we have a surprise, old school, defensive matchup with plenty of history.

And there’s an interesting storyline associated with each team. The Pats are still trying to make up for that championship that they let get away back in 2007. The Ravens are still trying to breakthrough and get to the Super Bowl during the Harbaugh/Flacco/Rice era. On the other side, the Giants are trying to pull off a repeat of their stunning 2007 title run. The Niners are trying to become one of the all-time rags-to-riches championship teams.

And keep this in mind: regardless of how these games turnout, we have a pretty interesting Super Bowl matchup coming up. If it’s Patriots vs. Giants, it’s a rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl and a chance at redemption for New England. If it’s Patriots vs. Niners, it’s offense vs. defense, and Montana’s team trying to stop Brady from equaling Montana’s number of Super Bowl wins. If it’s Ravens vs. Giants, it’s a rematch of the 2000 Super Bowl (hey, Ray Lewis is still around). If it’s Ravens vs. Niners, well, let’s just say that the Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh storyline will make just about every other over analyzed storyline seem fresh (except for any storyline involving one Tim Tebow).

In terms of the spreads, I think the AFC line seems a bit high. Even if you think the Patriots are clearly better, do you think they’ll win by double digits? On the other side, I’m disappointed because I was hoping it would either be the Niners favored by more than a field goal or a pick-em. Vegas opted for somewhere in between which is what you would expect. It should be a pretty interesting Championship Sunday.

Sunday’s Early Game

Baltimore (+9) @ New England

Pick: Patriots win but Ravens beat the spread

Comments: Well, for one of the rare times in recent years, we have the conference title game matchup that we were supposed to have—at least in terms of the playoff seeding. This is #1 vs. #2 in the AFC. That may not seem like a big deal, but it’s actually the first time it’s happened in the AFC since the 2004 season.

One other thought about this matchup: I bet both of these teams are glad not to be playing the Steelers. The Patriots have owned Pittsburgh in the playoffs, but the Steelers whipped them during the regular season and they looked like a bad matchup for New England. The Ravens swept the Steelers this year during the regular season, but the Steelers have owned them in the playoffs, and it would have been difficult to beat them for a 3^rd time.

Obviously this matchup is about offense vs. defense. But there are plenty of other storylines. The Patriots and their fans have had to wait longer than many expected for a chance to make up for their loss in the 2007 Super Bowl. Perhaps most surprisingly, this is the closest the Patriots have been to the Super Bowl since that loss back in Super Bowl XLII. Is this the year they get another shot at a 4^th Super Bowl title?

The Ravens and their fans are hungry to get back to the Super Bowl as well. They won it all in their first ever playoff appearance way back in 2000. This is their 7^th trip to the playoffs since then. In the previous 6 they’ve been ousted prior to the big game. Is this the year they make it back? Will Ray Lewis get another shot at a championship before his career ends? Will Ed Reed reach the Super Bowl (some fans may not realize or remember that Reed joined the Ravens 2 years after that championship year)? Will the Harbaugh/Flacco Ravens finally breakthrough and reach the Super Bowl? And can John Harbaugh keep up with his brother Jim?

CBS will cover this game. I’m sure the heads of the network are disappointed not to have Tim Tebow in the game, but Jim Nantz and Phil Simms had to have been getting sick of seeing the Broncos. They’d called Denver’s game for 5 straight weeks. That’s absurd and should tell you just how much the execs probably wanted the Broncos to win again last Saturday. As for Nantz and Simms, I thought they did a good job on Saturday night considering that the game was over before halftime.

I think this will be a good one. The spread seems a little high to me. I know the Ravens haven’t been as good on the road this season, but I would think their defense should be able to keep them in the game. This has been an entertaining battle over the years, and I expect it to be a good one again on Sunday.

Playoff Position/Update

Baltimore: When the Titans and Raiders lost in week 15, it clinched a playoff berth for the Ravens, but when they were defeated 14-34 in San Diego later that night their divisional title hopes took a hit.

Going into week 17, the Ravens would clinch the AFC North and a first round bye with a win at Cincinnati or a loss by the Steelers in Cleveland. If the Ravens lost and the Steelers won, Baltimore would end up as the #5 seed. If the Ravens won and the Patriots lost, Baltimore would snag the #1 seed. If the Pats and Ravens both won, Baltimore would be the #2 seed.

The Ravens took care of the Bengals, 24-16, clinching the AFC North. The Patriots wound up winning as well, so the Ravens finished as the #2 seed. The following week, the #3 seed Texans defeated the #6 seed Bengals in the WC round, setting up a matchup with the Ravens in Baltimore in the divisional round.

Last Sunday, the #2 seed Ravens hosted the #3 seed Texans in the divisional round. Early on in the day the Ravens looked like the experienced team, while the Texans looked like postseason rookies, just as most people expected. Baltimore could never quite put the Texans away until the final moments, but eventually they got it done.

Early on it looked like it might be a rout, as the Ravens scored 17 unanswered points after falling down 3-0, and they led 17-3 at the end of the 1^st quarter. The Texans didn’t go away, however, outscoring the Ravens 10-0 in the 2^nd quarter, and going into the 4^th quarter it was still just a 4-point game. The Ravens added a FG to make it a touchdown lead and then held on to win it, 20-13. The victory locked up the #2 seed Ravens for a trip to New England on Championship Sunday.

New England: The Patriots defeated the Broncos on the road in week 15 (41-23) to clinch the AFC East division title. They came from behind to defeat the Dolphins in week 16 (27-24) to clinch a first round bye.

Going into week 17, the Pats needed a win over Buffalo or losses by both the Ravens and Steelers to clinch the #1 seed. If New England lost and either the Ravens or Steelers won, the Patriots would be the #2 seed.

Shockingly, the Pats trailed the Bills at home 21-0 after a quarter of play, but they scored 49 unanswered points to win 49-21, clinching the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. The next week, both of the lower division winners in the AFC won in the WC round, meaning #4 seed Denver would be playing at New England in the next round.

Last Saturday, the #1 seed Patriots hosted the #4 seed Broncos in the divisional round. The Patriots dominated the action from start to finish, putting the game away by halftime, as they led it 35-7. They kept the pressure on at the start of the 2^nd half and they never let up, eventually winning by the score of 45-10.

The #2 seed Ravens defeated the #3 seed Texans the next day, meaning the #1 seed Patriots would host the #2 seed Ravens in the AFC title game.

Records and Trends

Baltimore: The Ravens are now 13-4 overall on the season but just 8-8-1 ATS. They are just 4-4 on the road (4-4 ATS) and they have a +7.0 average scoring differential for the year. The Ravens have won their last 3 games and 7 of their last 8. However, they have lost 4 of their last 5 games against the spread, including last Sunday against the Texans.

The Ravens won their last road game—week 17 at Cincinnati—but they have not won 2 consecutive road games since late last season. Baltimore also won ATS in their last road game but they haven’t won ATS in consecutive road games since late last season.

New England: The Patriots are now 14-3 overall on the season and 10-7 ATS. They are 8-1 at home but just 5-4 ATS at home. New England has a +12.1 average scoring differential for the year.

The Pats have won 9 straight (6-3 ATS). They have won their last 2 games ATS and 3 of their last 4. The Patriots have won 5 straight at home. They have won ATS in their last 2 home games.

Team Stats and Rankings

Baltimore: We’re still waiting for Baltimore’s offense to really breakthrough. The Ravens finished the regular season 12^th in scoring offense (23.6) and 15^th in total offense (338.7).

As always, Baltimore’s strength is on defense. They finished the regular season 3^rd in both scoring defense (16.6) and total defense (288.9).

Football Outsiders ranked the Ravens 13^th in offense; 1^st in defense; 30^th in special teams; and 7^th overall.

Baltimore was tied for 16^th in giveaways and tied for 13^th in takeaways during the regular season. They were tied 11^th in turnover differential at +2. The Ravens were 10^th in penalties per game and 5^th in penalty yards per game.

Baltimore was 17^th in offensive RZ TD% (51.0%) but 1^st in that category defensively (38.1%) during the regular season. They scored touchdowns on 1 punt return, 1 INT return, and 3 fumble returns. Unfortunately, they also allowed 2 PR TD’s, 1 KR TD, 1 INT TD, and 1 FR TD.

Last week, the Ravens defeated the Texans at home in the divisional round, 20-13. It was not a game that Baltimore dominated from a statistical stand point. Far from it. They had fewer first downs than Houston (11-16) and they were outgained 315-227. They were outrushed 131-87 and they also had fewer passing yards (140-184). They had just a 2:40 edge in TOP.

Baltimore went just 4 for 16 on 3^rd down, while holding the Texans to 5 for 15 on 3^rd down. Both teams were 0 for 1 on 4^th down. The Ravens scored TD’s on 2 of 3 RZ possessions and on 1 of 2 Goal to Go possessions. The Texans scored TD’s on 1 of 2 RZ possessions and on their only Goal to Go possession. The Ravens got killed in the sack battle, allowing 5 sacks for -26 yards, while not recording a single sack on defense.

The primary reason for Baltimore’s victory was that they didn’t hurt themselves and they forced Houston into mistakes. The Ravens did not have a single penalty called against them. More importantly, they won the turnover battle 4-0.

New England: The Patriots’ offensive machine was as potent as ever this year. They finished the regular season 3^rd in scoring offense (32.1) and 2^nd in total offense (428.0).

However, the Patriots might have been worse than ever defensively. They were 15^th in scoring defense (21.4) but 31^st in total defense (411.1) during the regular season.

Football Outsiders ranked New England 3^rd in offense; 30^th in defense; 5^th in special teams; and 4^th overall.

The Patriots excelled in the turnover game again this season, finishing the regular season 3^rd in giveaways; tied for 3^rd in takeaways; and 3^rd in turnover differential at +17. They were 7^th in penalties per game and 11^th in penalty yards per game.

New England finished the regular season 3^rd in offensive red zone TD% (65.3%) and 23^rd in that category on defense (55.7%). The Patriots scored TD’s on 1 punt return, 2 INT returns, and a fumble return. They allowed 1 pick-six and 2 safeties during the regular season.

Last week, the Patriots crushed the Broncos at home in the divisional round, 45-10. Because the game was such a rout, some of the statistics are less relevant than usual. However, they are still able to show just how one-sided it was. The Patriots had a 31-15 edge in first downs and outgained the Broncos 509-252. They had a 363-108 edge in passing yards and even managed to outgain the Broncos on the ground, 146-144.

The Patriots were 3 for 6 on 3^rd down (the important stat here is just 6 3^rd downs all game) while the Broncos were 7 for 18. The Pats never went for it on 4^th down, while the Broncos were 2 for 3 on 4^th down. New England scored TD’s on 5 of 6 RZ possessions and on 1 of 2 Goal to Go possessions. The Broncos scored TD’s on 1 of 3 RZ possessions and on 1 of 2 Goal to Go possessions.

The Pats lost the turnover battle (1-2) and the Broncos had about a 7 minute edge in TOP. But the Patriots won the sack battle 5-0, totaling -28 yards in sacks of Tim Tebow, while keeping Tom Brady clean. And New England was hit with just 2 penalties for 20 yards.

Injury News

Baltimore: CB Dominique Foxworth (knee) and LB Chavis Williams (foot) are on IR. WR/KR David Reed (knee) is also out for the season.

Safety Ed Reed rolled an ankle near the end of last week’s game and is questionable for this week. RB Anthony Allen (thigh) has missed the last 12 games and is questionable again this week.

New England: DE Mike Wright (concussion); DB Ras-I Dowling (hip); DB Josh Barrett (calf); LB Jeff Tarpinian (head); LB Jermaine Cunningham (hamstring); and DE Andre Carter (quad) are on IR. Carter’s loss was huge.

DE Mark Anderson hurt his leg in last week’s win over Denver and is questionable. TE Aaron Hernandez suffered a suspected concussion due to repeated head-on collisions last week. He’s questionable.

RB Shane Vareen has missed the last 5 games with a hamstring problem and is questionable again this week. Tackle Sebastian Vollmer has missed the last 6 games with a back injury and is questionable again for this one.

Series History

This series only goes back to 1996 (the year that the Browns became the Baltimore Ravens), and the Patriots hold a 6-1 edge in the all-time series. In their 7 games against the Ravens, the Pats are 4-2-1 ATS. The Pats are 5-1 against Baltimore going back to 2000 and 3-1 against the Ravens going back to 2007. The Patriots won the last meeting between these two teams, last season at home (23-20 in OT). The Pats are 4-1 against the Ravens at home.

This will be just the 2^nd meeting between these two in the postseason. The Ravens only win in 7 games against New England happened to come in the playoffs. Back in 2009 these two met in the WC round in New England, with the Ravens shocking the Pats in a 33-14 win. The Ravens are 0-6 in the regular season against the Pats but 1-0 against the Pats in the playoffs (1-0 on the road against the Pats in the playoffs).

Team Playoff Histories

Baltimore: This is Baltimore’s 8^th playoff appearance (all since 2000), their 5^th in the last 6 years, and their 4^th straight. They won the only Super Bowl they have ever appeared in and they have played in 2 conference championship games. They are now 10-6 overall in the playoffs (7-4 on the road). They are 1-1 in conference championship games (1-1 on the road).

The Ravens won their last playoff game, last week in the divisional round against the Texans at home (20-13). They lost their last road playoff game, last year, at Pittsburgh in the divisional round (24-31). Their last road playoff win was last year in the WC round at KC (30-7).

They lost the last conference championship game they played in back in 2008 at Pittsburgh (14-23). Their last win in the conference championship game was back in 2000 when they won at Oakland, 16-3, on the way to their Super Bowl championship.

Ray Lewis has played in ever playoff game in team history.

During the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era (2008-2011), the Ravens have posted 4 straight winning seasons, 3 seasons of 11 or more wins, back-to-back 12-win seasons, 1 division title, and 4 playoff appearances. The Ravens are now 5-3 in the playoffs during the Harbaugh/Flacco era (4-3 on the road). They are 0-1 in conference championship games during that time (0-1 on the road).

In addition, the Ravens are 1-0 against the Patriots in the playoffs during the Harbaugh/Flacco era (1-0 on the road). They defeated the Patriots in Foxboro in the 2009 WC round, 33-14).

New England: This is New England’s 19^th playoff appearance (first was in 1963), their 18^th since 1976, their 13^th since 1994, their 9^th in the last 11 years, and their 3^rd straight. They have played in 6 Super Bowls, winning 3 of them. They also played in 1 AFL championship game. They have played in 7 conference championship games.

The Patriots are now 22-15 overall in the playoffs (12-3 at home). They are 6-1 in conference championship games (3-0 at home). The Pats won their last playoff game, last week in the divisional round at home against the Broncos, 45-10.

For the Patriots, the win snapped a 3-game losing streak in the playoffs and a 2-game skid at home in the playoffs. Their last loss at home in the playoffs was last year in the divisional round against the Jets (21-28). They won their last conference championship game back in 2007 against the Chargers at home (21-12). The only conference championship game the Pats have ever lost was at Indy in 2006, when they blew a huge lead and wound up losing 34-38.

The Patriots went 5-11 in Bill Belichick’s first season as head coach of the team (2000). Since then, the Patriots have posted 11 straight winning seasons, 10 double digit win seasons, 4 seasons with 14 or more wins, 1 perfect regular season of 16-0, 9 playoff appearances, and 9 division titles. They have played in 4 Super Bowls during that stretch and won 3 of them.

This is the 9^th playoff appearance for the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Patriots. So far they are 15-5 overall in the playoffs in this era (9-2 at home) and 4-1 in conference championship games (2-0 at home).

The Belichick and Brady Pats are 0-1 against the Ravens in the playoffs (0-1 at home), having lost to Baltimore at home in the 2009 WC round, 14-33. Overall this is the 10^th appearance for Belichick as a head coach (with Cleveland and New England). His teams are now 16-6 in the playoffs (10-2 at home).

Keys to the Game

Baltimore: It might be big from a psychological stand point for the Ravens to score early or get a takeaway early. They might be able to cause the Patriots and the fans to start thinking about the last time they played Baltimore in the playoffs. It would be a big boost for the Ravens psyche as well.

The Ravens can’t afford to make mistakes in this game or do anything to help the Patriots. They don’t want to be reckless but on the other hand they don’t want to be too conservative either. They need a balance of aggression and control.

On offense, the Ravens must have Ray Rice involved throughout, both with runs and passes. When they have the Patriots focusing on Rice, and they can keep Flacco protected, then they can take shots at the NE secondary. They also need to get Anquan Boldin involved. Most of all, Joe Flacco has to have a good game.

Defensively, the Ravens must be able to pressure Tom Brady without blitzing and try to force him into some mistakes. Blitzing Brady does nothing other than lower your team’s chances of succeeding. That’s not to say that pressuring Brady does nothing. You have to pressure him; you just can’t try to do it by blitzing every other down.

When the chance for a turnover arises the Ravens have to take advantage. They must tackle well against the change of pace running game, the short passes to the slippery wide (white) receivers, and the short passes to the powerful tight ends. They have to tackle well or the Pats will be hard to stop.

The Ravens have given up some returns this year in special teams and they certainly can’t afford any of that in this game.

New England: It will be key for the Patriots to match the toughness and physicality level that the Ravens will surely bring to the game. The Patriots had a great edge from start to finish against Denver last week and they need to bring it again in this one. They also need to avoid making carless mistakes (especially early; Brady’s had a habit of throwing picks early in playoff games lately) and they will want to keep the crowd a part of the game.

Offensively, the Patriots must protect Brady and not turn the ball over. Other than that they just need to do their thing and get points when they have the chance.

On defense, the Pats should try to force Flacco into poor throws, turnovers, and plays for negative yards. It will be important not to give up big plays. Ray Rice will probably have some success but the Patriots should focus on making the Ravens earn every first down. They need have to focus on Rice because he is such a gigantic part of the offense. They won’t be able to shut him down but they need to keep him from gashing them for big runs like he did back in 2009.

Sunday’s Late Game

New York Giants (+2.5) @ San Francisco

Pick: Niners cover

Comments: Yeah, so this wasn’t exactly the matchup we expected. It certainly wasn’t the NFC championship game matchup we expected before the start of the season, when the Eagles were thought to be the SB contender in the NFC East, and few expected the Niners to make the playoffs, let alone reach the conference title game.

This wasn’t the conference championship game matchup most expected at the end of the regular season, as the Packers came into the playoffs 15-1, and most people thought New Orleans was headed for the title game. As it turned out, neither of those teams reached the conference championship game.

This isn’t even the matchup that we were supposed to get in terms of the playoff seeding, as it’s #2 vs. #4. Not ending up with #1 vs. #2 in the NFC championship game is nothing new. However, it’s unusual to have a #2 vs. #4 matchup in the NFC championship game. In fact, it’s never happened before since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 6 teams per conference back in 1990.

So, the offensive powers have been knocked out. What we have is a matchup of old school, tough, defensive minded teams. There’s plenty of history between these two franchises as well, although there hasn’t been much history in recent years.

The storyline for the Giants concerns whether they can pull off a repeat of their shocking run to the title back in 2007. So far they’re off to a really good start. Can Eli Manning pull it off again and do his brother one better in terms of Super Bowl titles?

For the Niners, this has already been a dream season. Now it’s all about when it will end or if it will end at all. Can Alex Smith take his team to the Super Bowl? Can Jim Harbaugh do something even Bill Walsh couldn’t do and take the Niners from losers to the best in the NFL in his first season? Can Jim Harbaugh keep up with his brother John?

Fox has this game. It will be Joe Buck and Troy Aikman again. This isn’t a bad matchup for Fox. They have a team from New York with a good storyline. They also have a surprise team trying to put a proud franchise back where it belongs after a lengthy stay at the bottom of the league. Still, I have to think the execs at Fox are at least a bit disappointed that they won’t have the Saints or the Packers.

I think this one will be as close as the spread suggests. I really don’t know what to expect other than that. It should be a good one and it could end up being a classic.

Playoff Position/Update

New York Giants: The Giants were the last of the 12 playoff teams to qualify for the postseason. The Giants hosted the Cowboys in the final game of the NFL’s regular season. The winner would go on to the playoffs as the NFC East division winner and the #4 seed; the loser would go home. The G-Men pounded the Boys, 31-14, to take the division title and get into the playoffs as the NFC’s #4 seed.

A week later, the #4 seed Giants hosted the #5 seed Falcons in the WC round. They led 7-2 at halftime and broke it open in the 2^nd half. They shutout Atlanta 17-0 in the 2^nd half and went on to win 24-2 in dominant fashion. The Saints had already won, so the Giants would be headed to play #1 seed Green Bay in the divisional round.

Last Sunday the #4 seed Giants upset the #1 seed Packers in the divisional round, knocking off Green Bay at Lambeau in the playoffs for the second time in 5 years. The Giants never trailed in the game and they were in control most of the day. They were ahead by 7 at the end of the 1^st quarter, and they ended the 1^st half with a dagger score at the buzzer, to take a 20-10 lead to halftime.

The Packers were within 7 at the start of the 4^th quarter, but the Giants scored the next 10 points to put the game away, eventually winning it 37-20. The victory locked up the Giants for a trip to San Francisco to face the #2 seed Niners in the NFC championship game.

San Francisco: The Niners were one of the surprise teams in the league this season. They ran away with the NFC West division title, clinching with a 26-0 win over the Rams in week 13. In week 16 they hung on for a win against the Seahawks to get to 12-3 and maintain an outside shot at earning the #1 seed. The Packers beat the Bears later that night to wrap up the top spot in the NFC playoffs, but the 49ers were still in line for a first round bye and a home playoff game in the divisional round.

Going into the final weekend of the season, the Niners only needed to win at St. Louis in order to clinch the #2 seed. If they somehow lost to the 2-win Lams, the Niners could still luck out and grab the #2 spot if the Panthers won at New Orleans. If the Niners lost and the Saints won, New Orleans would steal the #2 seed and San Francisco would finish as the #3 seed.

There didn’t seem much cause for concern, as the Lams were perhaps the worst team in the NFL this season, and St. Louis had every reason to lose the game since it could end up giving them the #1 pick in the draft. San Fran fell down 7-0 early but they scored 20 unanswered points to take a 13-point lead into halftime. With 6:30 left in the 4^th quarter, Anthony Dixon scored from a yard out to make it 34-13. That put the game away.

At least it seemed that way. Actually, it wasn’t over. The Rams would score twice and get the ball back in a matter of minutes, with plenty of time left to score and tie the game or even win it. In the end, the Niners hung on for a 34-27 win, wrapping up the #2 seed in the NFC.

A week later, the #3 seed New Orleans Saints beat the #6 seed Lions during the WC round, setting up a showdown between the #3 seed Saints and the #2 seed Niners in San Francisco in the divisional playoffs.

In the divisional round last week, the #2 seed Niners outlasted the #3 seed Saints at home in one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history. Early on it looked like the Niners might blowout the road favorites, as they took advantage of a slew of Saints turnovers to build a 17-0 lead. However, no one expected the Saints to go away, and they scored a couple of TD’s to cut the SF lead down to 17-14 at the half.

The Niners continued to dodge the Saints offensive haymakers in the 2^nd half and they led 23-17 midway through the 4^th quarter. Eventually, however, one of the Saints’ shots made it through, as the Niners gave up a TD to fall behind for the first time in the game with just 4:02 left to play.

But we were just getting started. The Niners marched 80 yards for a TD to retake the lead, though they failed on the 2-point try, leaving the score 29-24 with 2:11 to go. The Saints didn’t blink, scoring on a long pass play to take the lead again, and they got the 2-point conversion to put the Niners down 3 points with only 1:37 left on the clock.

Improbably (unbelievably?), the Niners did it again, marching 85 yards for the score to go on top yet again with only 9 seconds to play. This time the lead held up, as the Niners won 36-32 to advance to the championship round.

When the Giants knocked off the #1 seed Packers the next day, it meant that the #4 seed Giants would be going to San Francisco to play the #2 seed 49ers in the NFC title game.

Records and Trends

New York Giants: The Giants are now 11-7 overall this season and 10-7-1 ATS. They are 6-3 on the road (6-3 ATS) and they have a +1.9 average scoring differential for the year. The G-Men have won their last 4 games and 5 of their last 6. They have won 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 ATS.

The Giants have now won 3 straight road games (3-0 ATS), but one of those “road” games was at the New York Jets. The Jets and the Giants of course share a stadium.

San Francisco: The 49ers are now 14-3 overall this season and a sparkling 13-3-1 ATS. They are 8-1 at home and 8-0-1 ATS at home. San Francisco has a +9.1 average scoring differential for the year.

The Niners have won 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. They won their last game ATS and they have won 3 of their last 4 ATS. The Niners have won 7 straight at home (7-0 ATS).

Team Stats and Rankings

New York Giants: The Giants finished the regular season in good shape offensively, as they were 9^th in scoring offense (24.6) and 8^th in total offense (385.1) this season.

However, Big Blue was pretty bad during the regular season on the other side of the ball. They finished 25^th in scoring defense (25.0) and 27^th in total defense (376.4).

Football Outsiders ranked the Giants 7^th in offense; 20^th in defense; 16^th in special teams; and 12^th overall.

The Giants were tough to stop in the red zone this season, as they were 8^th in RZ TD% (52.5%). However, they weren’t very good at stopping teams from scoring in the red zone on the other end. They finished the regular season 23^rd in defensive RZ TD% (55.7%).

During the regular season, the Giants were tied 16^th in giveaways, but they were tied 5^th in takeaways, and they had a +7 turnover differential, good for tied 7^th in the NFL.

The Giants were 11^th in penalties and 9^th in penalty yards. They returned a fumble for a TD and notched 2 safeties during the regular season, while allowing 3 pick-sixes and a safety.

In the WC round, the Giants won 24-2 over the Falcons. They had a 19-14 edge in first downs and outgained the Falcons 442-247. They dominated the ground game (172-64) and out-passed the Falcons 270-183.

They were 8 for 15 on 3^rd down and 1 for 1 on 4^th down. Defensively, they held the Falcons to 4 for 14 on 3^rd down and 0 for 3 on 4^th down.

There were no turnovers in the game. The G-Men scored TD’s on only 1 of 3 RZ possessions and 1 of 2 GtoG possessions. On the other side, they held the Falcons out of the end zone on their only RZ possession and the Falcons were never in a goal to go situation.

The Giants had a 9 minute edge in TOP and they went 1 for 2 on FG tries. They allowed a safety but had a 2-1 edge in sacks.

Last week, the Giants shocked the Packers on the road in the divisional round, 37-20. There were some fairly interesting numbers at the end. The Giants had far fewer first downs (19-25) but they outgained Green Bay 420-388.

Had someone said before the game that the Packers would out-rush the Giants 147-95, it wouldn’t have been a good sign for New York. The G-Men passed for 325 yards, which wasn’t too surprising against GB’s defense. However, holding the Packers to just 241 yards passing was a flat out jaw dropper.

Both teams were 50% on 3^rd down, with the Giants going 8 for 16 and the Packers going 6 for 12. The G-Men never went for it on 4^th down while the Packers were 0 for 1. The Giants scored TD’s on just 2 of 5 RZ possessions, while GB went 2 for 3. The Packers never had a GtoG situation, while the Giants scored TD’s on 2 of 3 GtoG possessions.

Time of possession and penalties were about equal. The Giants were 3 of 4 on FG tries including 1 FG attempt that was blocked.

There were 2 main reasons for New York’s victory. One reasons was their huge edge in sacks: 4 sacks recorded for -23; 1 sack allowed for -5 yards. The other big reason was their 4-1 edge in turnovers.

San Francisco: During the regular season the SF offense wasn’t pretty but it got results. They finished the regular season 11^th in scoring offense (23.8) despite finishing 26^th in total offense (310.9).

However, it was San Francisco’s defense that made them special. They were 2^nd in scoring defense (14.3) and 4^th in total defense (308.2) during the regular season.

Football Outsiders ranked the Niners 18^th in offense; 3^rd in defense; 2^nd in special teams; and 6^th overall.

The Niners were 1^st in the NFL in giveaways; tied 1^st in takeaways; and led the NFL with a +28 turnover differential during the regular season. Somewhat surprisingly, the Niners were 26^th in penalties per game and 29^th in penalty yards per game.

The Niners were just 30^th in offensive red zone TD% (40.7%) during the regular season. However, they finished 4^th in that category defensively (41.2%).

The Niners scored TD’s on 1 punt return, 1 kick return, and 1 INT during the regular season. They recorded 1 safety. During the entire regular season they allowed opponents to score just 1 safety and no defensive/special teams TD’s.

Last week, the 49ers defeated the Saints at home in the divisional round, winning 36-32, in a wild, back-and-forth classic that will be relived forever. The shape of the game and the numbers were changed drastically during the final 4-minute barrage, during which the two teams combined to score 28 points, after combining for 40 points during the previous 56 minutes of play.

The Niners had far fewer 1^st downs than the Saints (17-26) and they were outgained (407-472). As expected, the Saints had a huge edge in passing yards (435-264), but the Niners had a big edge in rushing yards (143-37). The 49ers went 4 for 15 on 3^rd down, while the Saints were just 5 for 14. Strangely, neither team went for it on 4^th down.

SF went 3 for 3 on FG tries. They scored TD’s on 2 of 4 RZ possessions and on their only Goal to Go possession. They held the Saints to scoring a TD on just 1 of 2 RZ possessions. Amazingly, the Saints never had a GtoG situation.

The Niners recorded 3 sacks for -27 yards, but they allowed 4 sacks for -35 yards. They held the ball for slightly less time than New Orleans (-2:40). The 49ers were hit with 3 penalties for -33 yards, while the Saints weren’t called for a single penalty. The primary reason for SF’s victory was their 5-1 edge in turnovers.

Injury News

New York Giants: WR Domenik Hixon (knee); CB Justin Tryon (arm); CB Michael Coe (shoulder); WR Michael Clayton (knee); tackle William Beatty (eye); and tackle Stacy Andrews (lung) are on IR.

RB/KR Da’Rel Scott (knee) has missed the last 2 games and is questionable this week. LB Mark Herzlich (ankle) has missed the last 7 games and is again questionable this week.

WR Victor Cruz is dealing with a quad problem but is probable. DT Chris Canty hyper extended a knee during last week’s game but he’s probable for Sunday.

San Francisco: DT Will Tukuafu and WR Josh Morgan have been on IR since early this season.

DT Ray McDonald (hamstring) and WR Ted Ginn (knee) are questionable. TE Delante Walker broke his jaw in week 16 and has missed the last 2 games. He’s questionable for this week.

Series History

These two teams have played each other 35 times going back to 1952. The Niners have an 18-17 edge in the all-time series. The 49ers are 11-7 against the Giants at home. San Francisco won the last meeting, back in week 10 at home (27-20). That victory snapped a 3-game skid against the Giants. The Niners won ATS in that game, snapping a 5-game skid against the spread when playing the Giants.

These teams have had some famous battles against each other in the postseason. This will be the 8^th meeting between the G-Men and the Niners in the playoffs (all since 1981). The Niners are 4-3 against the Giants in the playoffs (4-1 at home). The Niners have won their last 2 playoff games with the Giants (both at home), but the G-Men won the only conference championship game played between the two teams.

The first time these two met in the playoffs was in the 1981 NFC divisional playoffs. The Niners won at home, 38-24. The game was notable for being the Niners first playoff victory under Bill Walsh on the way to their first Super Bowl championship. The Giants were playing in the playoffs for the first time since 1963 and for the first time with Phil Simms, Lawrence Taylor, and Bill Parcells (as DC). In recent years, some added attention was brought to this game when it was referenced several times in Michael Lewis’ book “The Blindside.”

The next meeting between these two in the playoffs came in the 1984 divisional playoffs. The 49ers won at home, 21-10. This game was notable for being the Niners first playoff victory of that year, on the way to their 2^nd Super Bowl title in 4 years under Walsh. The Giants were playing in the playoffs for the first time with Bill Parcells as head coach.

A year later in 1985, the Giants hosted the Niners in the WC playoffs. This time the G-Men won, 17-3, knocking off the defending Super Bowl champs.

Then in 1986 the two teams met in the postseason for a 3^rd consecutive year, this time in the divisional playoffs at Giants Stadium. The Giants dealt the 49ers their worst playoff defeat in franchise history, winning 49-3. The game was most memorable for a play on which NYG DT Jim Burt busted up the middle and broke Joe Montana’s nose, while LT intercepted the pass and returned it for a TD. The game was also notable for being New York’s first playoff win of that season, on the way to their first ever Super Bowl title.

The next playoff game between these two teams wouldn’t come until 1990. If not the most memorable or legendary of the playoff battles between the Giants and 49ers, it was certainly the most important. It is also the only previous time the two teams have played in the NFC championship game.

The 49ers were going for an unprecedented 3^rd straight Super Bowl victory (the goal had been nicknamed the quest for a “Three-peat.). The Giants had been competing with the 49ers for top spot in the NFC all season but they were playing without starting QB Phil Simms. The game took place at Candlestick Park.

There were several huge plays in the game but only 2 of them standout for directly changing the course of history in the NFL. The first was NYG DE Leonard Marshall sacking Joe Montana from behind, jarring the ball loose, and crushing the QB’s right hand. Montana would not play again until the final game of the 1992 season and that would be his last as a Niner.

The other play came with the 49ers trying to run the clock out, clinging to a 1-point lead. LT stripped Roger Craig and the Giants got the ball back. They moved into position for Matt Bahr’s 5^th FG of the day, winning 15-13, shocking the world and ending the 3-peat.

The two teams met once again in the playoffs in 1993, this time in the divisional round, and once again in San Francisco. The Niners bludgeoned the Giants, 44-3, issuing them their worst playoff defeat in team history. That would be Phil Simms’ final game in the NFL.

New York and San Francisco would not meet again in the playoffs for almost a decade and by then both teams would be very different. In 2002, the Niners hosted the Giants in the WC round, in a game that would become an instant classic. At one point in the 3^rd quarter, the Giants led 38-14, but San Francisco came roaring back, with Terrell Owens making plays and putting his team’s chances in jeopardy with his bizarre behavior many, many times throughout the game.

The Niners eventually took a 1-point lead very late in the 4^th quarter, but the Giants hurried down the field and got in position for a FG to save the game. However, New York’s long snapper (who had only been with the team for a matter of days) botched the snap. The holder threw downfield for a lineman and one of the SF defenders tackled him. It was obvious pass interference but the refs ruled that he was an ineligible player and the game was over, with the Niners winning, 39-38. It turned out that the refs had ruled incorrectly, but by the time that was sorted out it was too late (upon hearing the news that the NFL had stated that the officials had gotten the call wrong, then 49ers head coach Steve Mariucci remarked simply, “bummer”).

That was the last time these two teams met in the playoffs until now.

Recap of Week 10 Meeting

The Niners hosted the Giants back in week 10. The 49ers had won 6 straight coming into the game, while the Giants had won 3 straight and were coming off of a big win at New England the week before. Ahmad Bradshaw did not play for the Giants. The Niners were favored by 4 points and they ended up winning 27-20.

The Giants took the ball first and marched on a long, clock eating drive, going 75 yards in 14 plays over 8:33. The drive ended with Lawrence Tynes hitting a 23-yard FG to put the Giants on the board first, 3-0. The Niners matched New York on their first possession, going 62 yards in 12 plays over 6:02, with David Akers hitting a 36-yard FG to tie the score at 3-3. Those two drives took up all but a few seconds of the 1^st quarter.

On the 2^nd New York possession, the Giants went on another lengthy, time consuming march. This time they drove 73 yards on 13 plays over 6:20, with Tynes hitting a 25-yarder to put the G-Men back ahead, 6-3. Once again, the Niners matched the Giants, this time going 46 yards in 6 plays over 4:05. Akers came on for a much longer FG try this time and he hit again, this one from 52 yards out to tie the score at 6-6.

With the Giants eating up almost a full quarter of play during their first two drives, the Niners decided to try a surprise onsides kick. It worked and the 49ers took over at the Giants 47 with 5 minutes to play before halftime. This was big, not only because the 49ers defense had been on the field for almost 15 minutes of game time, but also because SF would be getting the ball first in the 2^nd half, so they had a chance to get 3 scores in a row if they played it right. They moved the ball 32 yards in 7 plays, taking 3:11 off the clock. Akers hit his 3^rd FG of the half, this one from 39 yards away, to put the Niners on top for the first time in the game, 9-6.

On the 2^nd play of the ensuing New York possession, Carlos Rodgers intercepted Eli Manning at the Giants 43, and the Niners took over there with 1:28 left in the half. The 49ers moved the ball to the 24, but on 2^nd and 10, Corey Webster picked off Alex Smith at the 16-yard line, saving the Giants from surrendering any more points. The game went to the half with the Niners holding a 9-6 lead.

Webster’s play ended up keeping the Giants in the game. The 49ers took the ball to open the 2^nd half and marched right down the field, going 70 yards on 10 plays over 3:46. Once again, Akers was called on for a FG try, and once again he delivered, this time booting a 28-yarder to make it 12-6 San Francisco.

Both teams went 3-and-out on their next possession. With 8:03 to play in the 3^rd, the Giants took over at their own 16, trailing by 6. Now the Giants got rolling again, marching 84 yards in 10 plays over 5:38, and this time they ended it with a touchdown. Mario Manningham caught a 13-yard TD pass to tie the score and the PAT put the Giants ahead by a point, 13-12, with 2:25 to play in the 3^rd quarter.

The Niners went 3-and-out on their next possession and punted. The Giants’ drive started at their own 15 and they quickly went 3-and-out and punted it back. The Niners got the ball back at the 50-yard line as the 4^th quarter began. On 2^nd and 4 from the New York 31, Alex Smith hit Vernon Davis with a short pass at the 25 and Davis took it all the way to the house for SF’s first TD of the game. Michael Crabtree caught a pass in the end zone for the 2-point conversion to make the score 20-13 in favor of the 49ers with 13:22 to play.

On the 2^nd play of the ensuing New York drive, it looked like Manning might have given the game to San Francisco, as Carlos Rodgers picked him off again. Rodgers intercepted at the 34 and returned it back to the 17 where the Niners took over on offense with a 7-poinit lead. On the first play after the change of possession, Kendall Hunter broke free for a 17-yard TD run to make it a 27-13 game with 12:21 left on the clock.

It looked like the game was just about out of reach, as it had taken the Giants a lot of time on all of their previous scoring drives. However, they would now score quickly to get back in the game. They went on a 7-play, 80-yard drive that took only 3:44 off the clock, with Hakeem Nicks scoring on a 32-yard strike from Manning to cut the deficit in half with 8:37 to play.

Now it was up to New York’s defense. They were up to the task, as the Niners went 3-and-out and punted the ball back to the Giants at their own 20 with 6:35 on the clock. There was plenty of time but the Giants needed a touchdown. They picked up 1 first down, but the 49ers were keeping everything in the field of play, eating into the clock, and soon the Giants faced 4^th and 6 from their own 35.

The 49ers decided to call timeout with 3:33 on the clock when it appeared the Giants were going to go for the first down. The Giants had lost a timeout early in the 2^nd half on a challenge that was upheld, and apparently they didn’t want to give the ball back to SF. They must have figured that it probably wouldn’t be much help in field position if they did punt and then stop the Niners due to SF’s strong legged punter Andy Lee. On 4^th and 6, Manning fired towards the left side for Manningham and he made the catch at the SF 47 for 18 yards and a 1^st down with 3:25 left.

The Niners challenged the ruling that the pass was complete and they lost, leaving them with only 1 timeout. It did give the 49ers defense another chance to catch a breath and they soon had the Giants facing 4^th and 5 from the SF 42. Again Manning converted, this time hitting Victor Cruz for 10 yards and a 1^st down at the 32.

Following the 2-minute warning, the Giants picked up a 1^st down at the 18 and then Cruz caught a pass for 8 yards to bring up 2^nd and 2 at the 10. The clock was stopped at 1:19 after an incompletion and the Giants faced 3^rd and 2 from the SF 10. They tried running Danny Ware up the middle and he was stuffed for no gain. Rather than call their 2^nd timeout to talk about 4^th down, the Giants got to the line with Manning in the shotgun and ran a play. Manning fired incomplete over the middle to turn the ball over on downs to the 49ers with 34 seconds left.

New York’s 2 timeouts did them no good. Smith took 3 kneels and the Niners escaped with a 27-20 win.

The Giants had the better end on a number of the key stats, picking up more first downs than SF (21-16) and more total yards (395-305). The Giants outrushed the Niners (93-77) and had more yards in the air (302-228).

New York held a 9-minute edge in TOP and won the sack battle 2 (-14 yards) to 1 (-9 yards). The Giants went 7 for 14 on 3^rd down while holding the Niners to 3 for 11. They also went 2 for 3 on 4^th down (the Niners never went for it on 4^th down).

Neither team was good in scoring situations, as the Giants scored TD’s on just 1 of 3 RZ possessions, while the Niners scored TD’s on just 1 of 4 RZ tries. The Giants failed to score a TD on their only Goal-to-Go chance and the Niners were never in a G-to-G situation.

The Niners won the turnover battle 2-1. The 2^nd turnover led to a crucial TD that put them ahead 2 scores. Akers went 4 for 4 on FG tries.

Frank Gore carried the ball just 6 times for zero yards and made 1 catch for 8 yards. 2 Giants receivers had big days, with Cruz catching 6 passes for 84 yards, and Manningham catching 6 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown.

Team Playoff Histories

New York Giants: This is the 31^st playoff appearance for the New York Giants (first was in 1933), the 15^th since 1981, the 7^th since 2000, the 5^th in the last 7 years, and the first since 2008. The Giants have played in 4 Super Bowls and won 3 of them. They also played in 14 pre-Super Bowl NFL championship games and won 3 of them. In addition, they won 1 pre-playoffs NFL championship, giving them a total of 7 NFL titles. They have played in 4 conference championship games.

The Giants are now 22-24 overall in the playoffs and 7-14 on the road in the playoffs. They are 4-0 in conference championship games (2-0 on the road). The Giants have won 2 straight in the playoffs, with their last playoff loss coming in the 2008 divisional round against Philly (11-23).

They have won 4 straight on the road in the playoffs, with their last road loss in the playoffs coming in the 2006 WC round at Philadelphia (20-23). They won their last conference championship game back in 2007 at Green Bay (23-20 in OT). They have never lost an NFC championship game.

The Giants were 6-10 in Tom Coughlin’s first season as head coach of the team (2004). Since then the G-Men have posted 7 straight non-losing seasons, 5 winning seasons, 4 double digit win seasons, 5 playoff appearances, and 3 division titles. They have also won a Super Bowl during that stretch.

This is the 5^th playoff appearance for the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning Giants. They are now 6-3 overall in the playoffs and 4-1 on the road. The Giants are 1-0 in the conference championship game during this era (1-0 on the road).

This is Tom Coughlin’s 9^th playoff appearance as a head coach (Jags and Giants). His teams are now 10-7 overall and 6-4 on the road. Coughlin is 1-2 in conference championship games (1-1 on the road).

The Giants are 3-4 against the Niners in the playoffs (1-4 on the road) but they are 1-0 against the Niners in the conference championship game (1-0 on the road). The Giants lost their last playoff game against the Niners, back in the 2002 WC round at SF (38-39).

San Francisco: This is the 24^th playoff appearance for the San Francisco 49ers (first was in 1949), their 19^th since 1981, and their first since 2002. The 49ers have played in 5 Super Bowls and won all 5 of them. They also played in 1 pre-SB NFL championship game and they have played in 12 conference championship games.

Overall, the Niners are now 27-18 in the playoffs and 20-8 at home in the playoffs. They are 5-7 in conference championship games (4-4 at home). The Niners won their last playoff game, last week at home against the Saints, 36-32. Their last loss in the playoffs was in the 2002 divisional round at Tampa (6-31).

The Niners have now won 3 straight at home in the playoffs, with their last home playoff loss coming in the 1997 NFC championship game against the Packers (10-23). That was also the last time they played in the conference championship game. Their last win in the conference championship was in 1994 at home against the Cowboys (38-28).

Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach in San Fran this season and led the team to a 13-3 record. This season the Niners snapped a streak of 8 straight non-winning seasons, posting their first winning record; double digit win season; playoff appearance; and division title since 2002. It was their first 13-win season since 1997.

Last week the Niners won their first playoff game since 2002. Alex Smith and Jim Harbaugh are now both 1-0 in the playoffs (1-0 at home).

The Niners are 4-3 against the Giants in the playoffs (4-1 at home) but 0-1 against the Giants in the conference championship game (0-1 at home). They won their last playoff game against New York, at home in the 2002 WC round (39-38).

Keys to the Game

New York Giants: The crowd and the elements shouldn’t be an issue for the Giants at this point. Getting ahead early and playing with the lead could be huge for New York because of their strengths. If SF has to play from behind the Giants will be in good shape.

Offensively, the Giants need to try and get something out of the run against the great SF defense. They need to protect Manning and give him time to execute on 3^rd down and in the red zone. They must protect the ball and take some shots against an aggressive defense.

Defensively, the Giants need to focus on shutting down the rushing attack and putting everything on Alex Smith. They must try and get pressure with their front 4 as usual. It will be important to wrap up and be physical against Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and the other SF players on short and medium pass completions. They need to play tough on 3^rd down and in the red zone.

San Francisco: The Niners have to be ready from the start of this game and they need to try and get ahead early and play with the lead. They don’t want to be playing the Giants from behind.

On offense, the Niners must play physical and grind out first downs. They have to protect Smith and run the ball effectively. They can’t afford any dropped passes or costly turnovers. They need to eat clock, convert on 3^rd down, and take advantage of scoring chances. They want to be able to protect enough to take a few shots at the Giants secondary.

Defensively, the Niners have to make the Giants earn everything and they can’t give up big plays. They need to try and confuse and hurry Manning. They should focus on shutting off the run and getting pressure on Manning, because with time it will be very hard to stop him from hooking up with his receivers. They need to force mistakes and hold on 3^rd down and in the red zone.