Last Week: Vs. Spread: (1-3); Straight Up: (2-2)
Season: Vs. Spread: (134-117-9); Straight Up: (176-84)
Wild Card Round Review: Absolutely awful. For starters, I only got 2 of the 4 winners correct, and I was just 1 for 4 ATS. 3 of the 4 games were decided by the start of the 4th quarter. The only game that was competitive was horrific for those of us who hate Tebow and all of the Tebowites. And of course, my team, got absolutely embarrassed in the playoffs again.
So yeah, I’ve had better opening rounds of the playoffs. By the way, all 4 road teams won last week. 3 of the 4 favorites covered, and the only underdog that beat the spread was also the only dog to pull off an upset.
Divisional Round Preview: Hopefully this will be a better weekend of playoff football. I think it will be. I’m confident (but worried) that the Tebow show will end this week. The opening game of the weekend could be a classic. So could the final game of the weekend.
In terms of the spreads, only 1 of the 4 favorites is favored by less than 8 points. The smallest line is 3.5 and in that game the road team is favored. If all 4 home teams win again this week than there will have been at least 1 upset.
Judging by the spreads, we might be in store for an even more lopsided weekend of football. I’m not really feeling these spreads. I’m taking the favorite to win straight up and the underdog to beat the spread in all 4 games. That could spell disaster in one sense, but it’s actually conservative in another sense.
Saturday’s Early Game
New Orleans (-3.5) @ San Francisco
Pick: Saints win but Niners beat the spread
Comments: To me, this is the most interesting game of a weekend full of interesting games. It might end up being the best game of the weekend. This game has by far the smallest spread of the weekend and it is the only game where the road team is favored. There’s plenty of intrigue because we still don’t really know how good these 49ers are.
This one will match Drew Brees and the Saints unstoppable offense against the Niners and their stingy defense. This will be a matchup of a couple of hot shot young coaches, neither lacking in cockiness, one of them trying to prove himself at this level.
Strangely, the nuance in this game will be the Niners and the playoffs coming back to Candle Stick Park. There was a time when playoff games were just a part of fall turning to winter in San Francisco. Not anymore. Niner fans have waited a long time for the playoffs to come back to town, and they certainly won’t be expecting this dream season to come to an end on Saturday.
Fox’s 2nd team has the call: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, and Tony Siragusa. This broadcast crew is okay. Kenny Albert isn’t a bad play-by-play guy but he’s nowhere near as good as his father. Not only is the voice much more generic, but he also brings nothing to the table in terms of personality or knowledge.
I think Johnston or “Moose” is one of the better co-analysts around. He played in a lot of great playoff games, including some at this very site.
Siragusa or “Goose” has been somewhat of a disappointment is a commentator. That might sound harsh, but I think people expected him to be funnier than he usually is. He will offer a useful comment from time to time but overall he just doesn’t add a whole lot.
I’ve never really understood why he’s on the sidelines rather than up in the booth with the rest of the crew. My suspicion is that they don’t think he has enough to be the only analyst so they’ve created a situation where his airtime is limited. However, he’s basically been negated as a result.
As I said, he will occasionally come up with a useful piece of insight. But having a 3rd member who doesn’t get much airtime inevitably leads to one of the main announcers calling on him or her at random times, and the response is almost never worth it. At least half of Goose’s comments are actually just him seconding something that Moose has said.
Anyway, this should be a very interesting game. It has the potential to be a classic.
Playoff Position/Update
New Orleans: The Saints steamrolled the Vikings in Minnesota in week 15 to clinch a playoff spot with 2 weeks to spare. They still had business to take care of in the NFC South and there was still a chance they could earn a first round bye. They couldn’t catch Green Bay for the #1 seed, as the Packers held the tie-breaker over them. However, if San Francisco slipped up and lost one of their final games, the Saints could grab the #2 spot.
On MNF in week 16, the Saints rolled their rivals from Atlanta, 45-16, as Drew Brees set the all-time single season passing record. That victory gave the Saints the NFC South title. They took care of business in week 17 as well, defeating the Panthers to finish 13-3. Unfortunately for the Saints, the 49ers never did slip up, so the Saints wound up with the #3 seed.
As the #3 seed in the NFC playoffs the Saints hosted the #6 seed Lions in the WC round. They blew open a competitive game in the 4th quarter, winning 35-17, locking them up for a divisional round game in San Fran with the Niners.
San Francisco: The Niners were one of the surprise teams in the league this season. They ran away with the NFC West division title, clinching with a 26-0 win over the Rams in week 13. In week 16 they hung on for a win against the Seahawks to get to 12-3 and maintain an outside shot at earning the #1 seed. The Packers beat the Bears later that night to wrap up the top spot in the NFC playoffs, but the 49ers were still in line for a first round bye and a home playoff game in the divisional round.
Going into the final weekend of the season, the Niners only needed to win at St. Louis in order to clinch the #2 seed. If they somehow lost to the 2-win Lams, the Niners could still luck out and grab the #2 spot if the Panthers won at New Orleans. If the Niners lost and the Saints won, New Orleans would steal the #2 seed and San Francisco would finish as the #3 seed.
There didn’t seem much cause for concern, as the Lams were perhaps the worst team in the NFL this season, and St. Louis had every reason to lose the game since it could end up giving them the #1 pick in the draft. San Fran fell down 7-0 early but they scored 20 unanswered points to take a 13-point lead into halftime. With 6:30 left in the 4th quarter, Anthony Dixon scored from a yard out to make it 34-13. That put the game away.
OR DID IT?
In one of the more underreported events of the football season, the 49ers somehow managed to allow the Rams to legitimately threaten to tie (or maybe even win) a game they trailed by 3 touchdowns with only 6 and a half minutes remaining. In fact, the story was so underreported that I must break format here and extend this usually brief segment much longer than necessary.
It began on the first play of the ensuing STL drive, when SF DB Chris Culliver was called for unnecessary roughness after a 7-yard completion to Brandon Lloyd. That gave the Rams the ball at the SF 47 with only 34 seconds having come off the clock since the 49ers TD. On 3rd and 11, Kellen Clemens through a 36-yard TD bomb to Lloyd to make the score 34-20 with 4:49 on the clock.
The game was still not in doubt but the lead had been trimmed by 7 points in just 101 seconds. In addition, Niners DB Dashon Goldson was called for unnecessary roughness, meaning the Rams would be kicking off from the 50-yard line. This didn’t seem like much of an issue until the Rams recovered an onside kick at the SF 36 with 4:45 to go. On the first play after that, Niners DB Tarell Brown was called for pass interference in the end zone, giving the Rams 1st and goal at the 1.
That’s when some sphincters started to get a wee bit tight. Cadillac Williams scored on the next play to cut the deficit to 34-27 with 4:36 remaining. In less than 2 minutes, the Rams and a few of San Francisco’s defensive backs had combined to turn a 3-score game into a 1-score game. Amazingly, the Rams were able to kick it deep and play defense, as they had 3 timeouts left.
After a touchback, the Niners gained 2 yards on 2 downs, with the Rams calling their first timeout with 3:53 on the clock. Alex Smith was then sacked for a loss of 7 and STL called their 2nd timeout. After a punt, the Rams took over down only 7 at their 46 yard line with 3:37 and a timeout left.
I mean no matter how bad the Rams were or how much faith the Niners had in their defense, at that point the game was most certainly in jeopardy, as all it would take would be another pass interference penalty to give the Rams a shot to tie or maybe even take the lead. They reached the SF 33 with 2:56 still to play.
In less than 3 minutes, the Rams had gone from being down 21 points to being down 7 points with a 1st down at the SF 33. But 2 plays later Clemens was sacked to make it 3rd and 17 from the 40. Making matters worse (or better, depending on your point of view), Clemens was injured on the play, meaning 27-year old Todd Brandstater—a 6th round pick by Denver in 2009—would now be making his NFL debut. Not surprisingly he threw 2 incomplete passes to turn it over on downs to the Niners.
Incredibly, it still wasn’t over. The Niners had a 3rd and 1 at their own 49, and if the Rams held here, SF would be punting the ball back to STL with around 1:20 left on the clock. Dixon carried for 3 yards and a 1st down to finally seal the win,34-27, wrapping up the #2 seed for the 49ers.
But it was harry for a minute there. The New Orleans victory on Saturday night during WC weekend meant that the #3 seed would be coming to San Francisco for a showdown with the Niners in the divisional round.
Records and Trends
New Orleans: The Saints are now 14-3 overall and an impressive 13-4 ATS. They are 5-3 on the road this season (4-4 ATS). The Saints have an excellent +13.2 average scoring differential. New Orleans has now won 9 straight (9-0 ATS). They’ve won their last 3 on the road (3-0 ATS).
San Francisco: The 49ers are 13-3 overall and an outstanding 12-3-1 ATS the spread. They are 7-1 at home this season (7-0-1 ATS). They have won their last 3 but they are just 3-3 ATS over their last 6 games. San Francisco has a +9.5 average scoring differential.
Team Stats and Rankings
New Orleans: The Saints led the league in total offense (467.1) this season and they were 2nd in points per game (34.2). They were just 24th in total defense (368.4) but they were 13th in points allowed per game (21.2). Football Outsiders ranked New Orleans 2nd in offense, 28th in defense, 13th in special teams, and 3rd overall.
They finished the season tied 4th in giveaways and 31st in the NFL in takeaways. The Saints were tied 19th in turnover differential (-3). They were 15th in penalties and 17th in penalty yards.
In the red zone, the Saints were 6th in touchdown percentage (58.7%). Defensively, they were 28th in red zone TD% (59.0%).
During the regular season, the Saints had 1 PR TD, 1 INT TD, and a pair of FR TD’s. They allowed 1 KR TD and 1 INT TD.
Last Saturday night the Saints pulled away from the Lions at home, winning 45-28. They had a 34-22 edge in first downs; a 626-412 edge in total yards; a 167-32 edge in rushing yards; and a 459-380 edge in passing. They lost the sack battle 2-0 and the turnovers were tied 2-2.
In fact, the only time the Lions stopped New Orleans was when the Saints fumbled. They never punted. The Saints scored TD’s on 4 of 6 red zone possessions and just 2 of 4 goal to go situations. They allowed TD’s on 4 of 4 red zone possessions and both of Detroit’s goal to go situations.
The Saints had a dominant 15 minute edge in time of possession. They converted on 7 of 11 3rd downs and went 3 of 4 on 4th down. The Lions went 7 for 10 on 3rd downs.
San Francisco: Football Outsiders ranked the Niners 18th in offense; 3rd in defense; 2nd in special teams; and 6th overall. They finished the regular season 11th in scoring offense (23.8) and 26th in total offense (310.9). They were 2nd in scoring defense (14.3) and 4th in total defense (308.2).
The Niners were 1st in the NFL in giveaways; tied 1st in takeaways; and led the NFL with a +28 turnover differential. Somewhat surprisingly, the Niners are 26th in penalties per game and 29th in penalty yards per game.
The 49ers are just 30th in offensive red zone TD% (40.7%). However, they are 4th in that category defensively (41.2%).
This season the Niners scored TD’s on 1 punt return, 1 kick return, and 1 INT. They recorded 1 safety. They allowed opponents to score just 1 safety.
Injury News
New Orleans: TE David Thomas (concussion); RB Mark Ingram (toe); and LB Will Herring (knee) are on IR. TE John Gilmore is also out with a toe injury. WR Lance Moore missed the last 2 games and is out yet again with a hamstring injury.
LB Jonathan Casillas missed last week with a knee injury and is questionable for this week. Safety Roman Harper hurt his ankle last week and is questionable for Saturday. WR Robert Meachem injured his knee last week but is probable for this week. LB Jonathan Vilma tweaked his knee in practice but is probable.
San Francisco: DT Will Tukuafu and WR Josh Morgan have been on IR since early this season. TE Delante Walker missed last week with a busted jaw and is listed as questionable for this Saturday. FB Bruce Miller hurt his knee in week 17 and is questionable.
WR Kyle Williams missed week 17 with a concussion and is questionable for this week. WR Ted Ginn has missed the last 2 with an ankle injury and is questionable for this one. CB Chris Culliver is also questionable with a knee injury and DT Ray McDonald is questionable with a hamstring problem.
Series History
The 49ers hold a dominant 45-24-2 edge in this series that began in 1967. That record is a product of all the years these two spent in the NFC West, when the Niners were consistently at the top of the division and the Saints were consistently near the bottom.
Actually, through the first meeting between these two teams in 1999 the Niners led the series 43-15-2. Since then the Saints have won 9 of 11 meetings. They’ve won the last 6 meetings going back to 2002. The Saints have won their last 2 games at SF, including last year’s 25-22 win on MNF. This will be the first meeting in the playoffs.
Team Playoff Histories
New Orleans: This is New Orleans’ 9th playoff appearance (all since 1987) and their 3rd straight. They are now 6-7 overall but they are 0-4 all-time on the road. They are 2-1 in the divisional round (0-1 on the road).
This is the 4th appearance in the playoffs for the Saints in the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era. They are now 5-2 in the playoffs during that time (0-2 on the road). The Brees/Payton Saints are 1-1 in the divisional round (0-1 on the road).
San Francisco: The 49ers have won of the best histories in the NFL. This is their 24th playoff appearance (first was in 1949) but their first since 2002. They have won 5 Super Bowls in 5 appearances. They also played in 1 NFL championship game before the SB era and they have played in 12 conference championship games.
They are 26-18 all-time in the playoffs (19-8 at home). They are 13-8 in the divisional round (12-4 at home). The 49ers are 16-7 in their opening game of the playoffs. They lost their last playoff game in the 2002 divisional round, losing at Tampa Bay (6-31).
Their last win in the playoffs was in their comeback victory over the Giants at home in the 2002 WC round (39-38). Their last loss at home in the playoffs was in the 1997 NFC championship game against the Packers (10-23).
This will be the first ever playoff game for Jim Harbaugh (as a coach) and Alex Smith.
Keys to the Game
New Orleans: The Saints are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and they will be favored on the road in this one, yet they are still trying to prove themselves on the road in the playoffs. They’ll also being playing outdoors, on grass, against a good defense. So there is some pressure on them.
On offense, they need to stick with the run to avoid becoming 1-dimensional, even though the Niners may shutdown their ground game. They must avoid the turnovers that hurt them last week and execute in the red zone like they usually do.
Defensively, the Saints should focus on the run and put the game on Alex Smith. If they do that, they may be able to force him into making mistakes that he didn’t make during the regular season.
San Francisco: The Niners and their fans will be pumped for this one but they need to remember to play within themselves. Getting ahead early would be ideal, but if not, they must weather the storm.
Offensively, the Niners need to run the ball and stay within their usual system. They must execute on 3rd down to extend drives and limit the number of New Orleans possessions.
Defensively, the Niners must shutdown the run, get off on 3rd down, and take advantage of any mistakes Brees makes. They must try to limit the Saints to FG’s as often as possible.
Saturday Night’s Game
Denver (+13.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Broncos beat the spread
Comments: I’m sure the NFL is pumped that Tebow is still around but for the rest of us it’s pretty annoying. Obviously this one has intrigue, as we all want (have) to see if Tebow can pull another miracle (calamity) out of his ass. We just saw this game a few weeks ago, meaning it will be even more shocking if Tebow defies the odds makers again.
This will be a matchup of Tebow vs. Brady; or in other words, the Virgin vs. the Playboy the Underwear Model Girl Friend. It’s also Tebow and the Tebow option vs. Belichick and his makeshift defense. Finally, it’s the Tebow Nation vs. the Spygater Nation.
This one could be lopsided, but there will be drama even in that, because we will get to see the Tebow Train fall off the rails. Or it could be competitive, and we all know what that will be like.
It’s no surprise that CBS scheduled the game for Saturday night and chose Jim Nantz and Phil Simms to cover it. Last week’s Tebow vs. Pittsburgh game was a huge hit in the ratings, and this one will no doubt draw a big number as well.
Nantz was good again last week. I don’t know why, perhaps it’s the nature of the game, but Nantz is much more constrained in terms of rambling on about the themes and the special interest stories. It must be tempting for him, especially with Tebow, but he does a pretty good job keeping the main focus on the action on the field.
If Nantz did a good job not overly praising Tebow’s highlights last week, Simms for his part also did a good job not being overly critical of Tebow’s lowlights last week. Overall, however, I didn’t think Simms was at his best last Sunday. Still, this is about as good a broadcast team as there is right now covering NFL games, so I can’t complain much.
There’s going to be drama in this one no matter what happens. Hopefully, the scoreboard won’t contain any drama in the 4th quarter.
Playoff Position/Update
Denver: At one incredible point in the season, the Broncos looked like shoe-ins for the playoffs. Then reality finally set-in and they lost back-to-back games to fall to 8-7 heading into week 17. They still held control of their own destiny. If they beat the Chiefs at home they would win the AFC West. If the Broncos lost, they could still win the West if the Raiders fell to the Chargers.
Denver failed to take care of things on their own, losing 3-7 at home for their 3rd straight loss to finish the season 8-8. However, the Broncos lucked out again, as the Chargers pulled away from the Raiders in Oakland, winning 38-26. When the Raiders lost, the Broncos clinched the AFC West division title and backed into the playoffs as the #4 seed.
Last week, the Broncos proved yet again that sometimes nobody—and I do mean NOBODY—knows what is going to happen when you get two teams together and have them square off in the arena. The Broncos jumped all over the Steelers and led 20-6 at the half.
They might have put the game away had a fumbled lateral been called correctly by the officials. The Steelers rallied back to tie the game and Denver had to dodge a last minute attempt to win in regulation by Pittsburgh. The game went into OT and the Broncos scored on the first play of overtime to win it, 29-23.
The Texans had won the day before so the #4 seed Broncos would be heading to New England in the divisional round.
New England: The Patriots defeated the Broncos on the road in week 15 (41-23) to clinch the AFC East division title. They came from behind to defeat the Dolphins in week 16 (27-24) to clinch a first round bye.
Going into week 17, the Pats needed a win over Buffalo or losses by both the Ravens and Steelers to clinch the #1 seed. If New England lost and either the Ravens or Steelers won, the Patriots would be the #2 seed.
Shockingly, the Pats trailed the Bills at home 21-0 after a quarter of play, but they scored 49 unanswered points to win 49-21, clinching the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
Records and Trends
Denver: The Broncos are now 9-8 overall this season and 8-9 ATS. They are 5-3 on the road (6-2 ATS). They have a -4.4 average scoring differential. The Broncos win last week snapped a 3-game losing streak overall and a 4-game losing streak ATS. In their last road game they were embarrassed by the Buffalo Bills (14-40) in week 16.
New England: The Pats are 13-3 overall this season but just 9-7 ATS. They are 7-1 at home but just 4-4 ATS at home. They’ve won 8 in a row overall but they are just 2-3 ATS in their last 5. They have an excellent +10.7 average scoring differential on the season. The Pats have won 4 straight at home (2-2 ATS).
Stats and Rankings
Denver: Denver was 25th in scoring offense (19.3) and 24th in scoring defense (24.4). They were 23rd in total offense (316.6) and 20th in total defense (357.8).
The Broncos were tied 25th in giveaways, tied 28th in takeaways, and tied 26th in turnover differential (-12) this season. They were 17th in penalties and 14th in penalty yards.
Denver was 23rd in offensive RZ TD% (47.2%) and 15th in defensive RZ TD% (51.9%) during the regular season. They had 2 punt return TD’s and 3 pick-sixes, but they also allowed a PR TD, 3 INT TD’s, 3 FR TD’s, and a safety.
Football Outsiders ranked them 23rd in offense, 19th in defense, 15th in special teams, and 24th overall.
Last Sunday, the Broncos stunned the world by taking 20-6 lead over the Steelers and eventually winning in overtime, 29-23. They finished with fewer first downs than Pittsburgh (18-21) but they actually outgained the Steelers 447-400.
That the Broncos put up 447 yards of offense on the Steelers is one of the more spectacularly shocking numbers I’ve seen in all my years of watching sports. They won the game despite not outrushing the Steelers (131-156) because they somehow put up over 300 yards in the air (316-244).
The turnovers were tied 1-1. Denver was just 3 for 10 on 3rd down. They held Pittsburgh to 7 for 16 on 3rd down and 0 for 1 on 4th down. The Broncos scored TD’s on just 1 of 4 red zone possessions and failed to score a TD on their only goal to go possession. The Steelers were 1 for 2 scoring TD’s on red zone possessions and 1 for 1 on goal to go possessions.
New England: The Patriots finished the regular season 3rd in scoring offense (32.1) and 2nd in total offense (428.0). They were 15th in scoring defense (21.4) but 31st in total defense (411.1). Football Outsiders ranked New England 3rd in offense; 30th in defense; 5th in special teams; and 4th overall.
The Patriots excelled in the turnover game again this season, finishing 3rd in giveaways; tied for 3rd in takeaways; and 3rd in turnover differential at +17. They are 7th in penalties per game and 11th in penalty yards per game.
New England is 3rd in offensive red zone TD% (65.3%) and 23rd in that category on defense (55.7%). The Patriots have scored TD’s on 1 punt return, 2 INT returns, and a fumble return. They have allowed 1 pick-six and 2 safeties.
Injury News
Denver: DT Kevin Vickerson (ankle); RB Knowshon Moreno (knee); CB Cassius Vaughn (leg); center Chris Kuper (leg); and FB Spencer Larsen (knee) are on IR.
Long Snapper Lonnie Paxton is out for this week for personal reasons. That might not sound like much but it could be huge. WR Eric Decker (knee) has been ruled out for this one and that will certainly be huge. Safety Brian Dawkins (knee) has missed the last 2 weeks and is doubtful for Saturday night.
Safety David Bruton has an Achilles problem but is probable. DE Elvis Dumervil (ankle); TE Daniel Fells (ankle); and LB Von Miller (thumb) are all listed as probable.
New England: DE Mike Wright (concussion); DB Ras-I Dowling (hip); DB Josh Barrett (calf); LB Jeff Tarpinian (head); LB Jermaine Cunningham (hamstring); and DE Andre Carter (quad) are on IR. Carter’s loss was huge.
Tackle Matt Light (ankle) is probable for Saturday night. Guard Logan Mankins missed week 17 with a knee injury but is probable for this one. RB Shane Vareen has missed the last 4 games with a hamstring problem but is probable for Saturday. Tackle Sebastian Vollmer has missed 5 games in a row with a back injury but is also listed as probable for this week.
In typical Patriots form, New England listed 15 other players as questionable for this week.
Series History
The Broncos have a fairly significant 27-17 edge in this series which began in 1960. They are 21-7 against New England since 1968. These two teams have faced each other 15 times over the last 17 years.
New England won the last meeting, in week 15 at Denver (41-23). The Pats won the last game in New England (41-7) back in 2008. The Broncos’ last win over the Pats came in Denver in 2009 (20-17).
This will be the 3rd time these two teams have met in the playoffs. The Broncos have won the 2 previous playoff battles, both in the divisional round, and both in Denver. In 1986, the Broncos won 22-17 over the Pats at home in the divisional round on the way to the Super Bowl. In 2005, the Broncos beat the Pats at home in the divisional round, 27-13, dealing Tom Brady his first playoff defeat.
Recap of Week 13 Meeting
In week 15, the Patriots went to Denver and wound up stopping the Tim Tebow Train that had been in full force at the time, winning 41-23. However, things could easily have gone differently if the Broncos hadn’t shot themselves in the foot.
Denver opened the game with a 9-play, 80-yard drive for a TD, with Tebow going 9 yards for the score. A bad snap on the PAT led to a failed try so the score was only 6-0. The Patriots responded with a 5-play, 80-yard TD drive on their first possession, with Tom Brady hitting Chad Johnson for a 33-yard TD completion that put New England ahead, 7-6.
On their 2nd possession, the Broncos went 82 yards in just 4 plays, with Lance Ball scoring on a 32-yard run to make it 13-7 Denver. The Patriots had to punt on their 2nd possession and the Broncos were driving with the lead as the 1st quarter came to a close.
The Broncos ended up facing 4th and 1 from the 8 and they decided to settle for a FG that extended the lead to 16-7 after a 10-play, 63-yard drive. The Pats got rolling on their next possession, going 80 yards in 12 plays. Aaron Hernandez caught a 1-yard TD to bring the score to 14-16.
On the first play of the ensuing Denver possession, Ball fumbled, and the Pats recovered at the Denver 19. They had a 1st and goal from the 8 but that turned into 4th and goal from the 3. They settled for a FG to give them a 17-16 lead.
The Broncos started their next possession by moving from the 20 to the 46 in 2 plays, but then Tebow fumbled, and the Patriots recovered at the Denver 40-yard line. On 4th and 1 from the 31, Brady hit Hernandez for 25 yards and a 1st and goal at the 6. A few plays later, Brady scored from a yard out to put the Patriots ahead 24-16.
The Broncos went 3-and-out on their next possession and the Patriots had a 1st down at their own 49 with 24 seconds left in the half. They ended up having to punt with just 14 seconds to go before halftime. Amazingly, Quan Cosby muffed the punt, and the Patriots recovered at the 16 with 3 seconds left. Stephen Gostkowski nailed a 34-yard FG to give the Patriots a 27-16 lead at the half.
On the first drive of the 2nd half, the Patriots faced 3rd and 24 from their own 6, when Robert Ayers was called for illegal use of the hands, giving the Pats a 1st down. They reached the Denver 45 before punting. Denver had a 3rd and 8 at the 50 yard line but Tebow was sacked for a loss of 10 and they punted.
The Pats then went 85 yards in just 8 plays for a score, with Danny Woodhead running it in from 10 yards out to put New England ahead 34-16. Then Cosby got into the act again, muffing the kickoff, and only bringing the ball out to the 8 yard line. The 4th quarter began with the Broncos trailing by 18 points. They went 3-and-out.
The Pats reached the Denver 48 before punting. The Broncos then finally got some offense going again, driving 89 yards in 7 plays, with Tebow scoring on a 2-yard run. The score was now 34-23 in favor of New England with only 8:41 remaining. The Patriots put the game away on their next possession, driving 80 yards in 9 plays, with Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis scoring from 1 yard out to make it 41-23 with only 4:10 left to play.
Denver drove to the Pats 30 on their next possession, but on 4th and 17 from the 37, Tebow was sacked all the way back at his own 35 for a loss of 28 yards. The Patriots took over with 2:17 on the clock. The final score was 41-23 New England.
The Pats had a 26-23 edge in first downs and outgained Denver 451-393. The Broncos won the ground battle (252-141) but the Patriots dominated the game in the air (310-141). Turnovers were huge, with the Patriots holding a 3-0 advantage. The Pats sacked Tebow 4 times for -53 yards, while the Broncos got to Brady twice for -10 yards.
The Patriots were 5 for 12 on 3rd down and 1 for 2 on 4th down. The Broncos were 4 for 10 on 3rd down and 0 for 2 on 4th down. The Patriots scored TD’s on 4 of 6 RZ possessions and 3 of 4 GtoG possessions. Denver scored TD’s on 2 of 3 RZ possessions and on their only GtoG possession. The Patriots had a 7:22 edge in time of possession.
The Broncos were determined to take away Rob Gronkowski, so Hernandez caught 9 passes for 121 yards and a TD. Demaryius Thomas had a big game for Denver, catching 7 passes for 116 yards. Tebow completed 11 of 22 passes for 194 yards. He lost 53 yards on 4 sacks. Tebow rushed 12 times for 93 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Team Playoff Histories
Denver: This is Denver’s 18th appearance in the playoffs (all since 1977) and their first since 2005. They are now 18-15 overall in the playoffs but they are just 3-8 on the road. They are 8-3 in the divisional round (1-1 on the road).
The Broncos have lost their last 3 road playoff games. Their last win on the road in the playoffs was the 1997 AFC championship game at Pittsburgh (24-21).
John Fox is now 6-3 overall in the playoffs. Tim Tebow is now 1-0 in the playoffs but this will be his first road game in the postseason.
New England: The Patriots have been around for many years but they have only become one of the great franchises in the NFL in recent years. This is their 19th appearance in the playoffs (first was in 1963), the 18th since 1976, the 13th since 1994, and the 9th in the last 11 years. They have made the playoffs in 3 straight seasons.
The Pats have played in 6 Super Bowls and won 3 of them. They played in 1 pre-SB NFL championship game and they have played in 7 conference championship games. The Pats are 21-15 overall in the playoffs and 11-3 at home. They are 8-6 in the divisional round (5-2 at home).
The Patriots are 10-8 in their opening game of the playoffs but they lost their opening game the last 2 years. They’ve lost their last 3 playoff games. Their last win in the playoffs was in the 2007 AFC championship game against the Chargers at home (21-12). They’ve lost 2 in a row at home the playoffs, falling to the Ravens at home in the 2009 WC round (14-33) and last year at home to the Jets in the divisional round (21-28).
Tom Brady is 14-5 in the playoffs and 8-2 at home. He is 5-2 in the divisional round (4-1 at home) but 0-1 against Denver in the playoffs.
The Patriots were just 5-11 in Bill Belichick’s first season as head coach back in 2000. In the 11 years since, the Patriots have posted 11 straight winning seasons, 10 double digit win seasons, 9 division titles, 6 seasons with 12 or more wins, and 5 seasons with 13 or more wins. Belichick is 15-6 in his career in the playoffs (with NE and Cleveland) and 9-2 at home. His teams have gone 5-3 in the divisional round (4-1 at home).
Keys to the Game
Denver: Honestly, after what we witnessed last week in Denver, I think anything is possible. The Broncos must keep their edge this week, which might be hard to do after such an unbelievable swing last week.
They must learn from the first meeting with the Pats and avoid the mistakes that killed them. This week the Broncos will be on the road and they need to handle the crowd. Getting off to a good start would be a big help.
Offensively, the Broncos need to run the ball, hit big pass plays, take care of the ball, and execute on 3rd downs and in the red zone.
On defense, the Broncos need to shut the run down completely and pressure Brady. They have to try and force some mistakes.
New England: It could be huge for the Pats if they jump ahead of the Broncos early in the game. They need to test the Broncos, who will be playing on the road after an enormous win.
Offensively, the Pats need to protect Brady, take care of the ball, and just do their thing.
On defense, the Patriots should focus on shutting down the Denver running game and putting it all on Tebow as a passer. This might sound strange, as the Patriots were awful against the pass this season. But I really don’t think that sort of thing applies against Denver. Pittsburgh was the #1 defense in football against the pass and Tebow hit big play after big play on them. You just have to know how to deal with Denver’s offense and I think Belichick will have his team prepared.
The New England defense must limit the number of big plays the Broncos get and force turnovers. They must get off the field on 3rd down and play tough in the red zone. Most importantly, the Patriots must learn from their first game with the Broncos and from Denver’s game with the Steelers last week and adjust what they do accordingly.
Sunday’s Early Game
Houston (+9) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens win but Texans beat the spread
Comments: I think most people would agree that this game is the weakest link of the divisional round. This is the least sexy game and the least interesting matchup. It’s also the game most likely to be boring and non-competitive, in my opinion.
We all saw the Texans last week so there’s no longer any nuance there. Nobody expects them to go any further. We’ve all seen the Ravens in the playoffs many times, although this will be a somewhat rare home playoff game for Baltimore.
The Ravens have had a habit of making things interesting this year but that’s mostly been on the road. Everyone’s waiting to see if this particular Baltimore team can take the next step, but we won’t find that out this weekend.
I guess there could be some drama this week if the Ravens ever seem to be in jeopardy of losing. Then you will start to see the cameras focus on veterans Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, the same way that the cameras started to focus on Hines Ward in Denver last Sunday.
Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf will call this game for CBS. I guess I have to say that I don’t really mind them as a broadcasting duo. Would I rather have Gus Johnson and just about anyone? Sure. But they are far from the worst.
Gumbel is definitely at his best when he is hosting in the studio, but he’s a decent play-by-play guy and that’s a rarity in this day and age. Plus, who watches the pre/post game studio crap? Gumbel would be wasted in the studio. He’s not great as a play-by-play man but he certainly doesn’t take away from the game.
Dierdorf is kinda silly. When I was a kid he was part of a 3-man booth with Al Michaels and Frank Giford on MNF. I still think that was one of the best broadcast teams of my lifetime. Nowadays he can sound a little bit over dramatic/old fashioned as the analyst in a two-man booth. I’m sure he annoys the hell out of a lot of people. He doesn’t really bother me though, because the comments that would bother me just make me laugh instead.
The only way this one will be interesting is if the Texans put a scare in the Ravens. I don’t see it happening but you never know. Last week’s game between Houston and Cincinnati was much more interesting than I thought it would be during the first 35 minutes or so. Then when the Texans put it away it was boring. If the Texans make this one competitive, it could end up being very interesting.
Playoff Position
Houston: With the Colts an embarrassment; the Jaguars among the worst teams in the league; and the Titans a middling, inconsistent club; the door was wide open for the Texans and they marched through it.
They came from behind to stun the Bengals on the road in week 14 for their 7th consecutive win. Moments later, Tennessee’s upset bid of the New Orleans Saints came to an end with the Titans losing 22-17, clinching the AFC South title for the Texans. They were headed to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.
At that point, they actually had a shot at the #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Looking at their remaining schedule, it seemed like they had a much better than 50-50 chance of finishing 13-3 which would guarantee at least a bye week and home field advantage in their first playoff game.
But Houston’s hot streak would end the very next week in a stunning loss to the Carolina Panthers at home. They were only favored by 4.5 points but they 15-point loss to a 4-9 team was nonetheless surprising. Their next loss was much more startling.
The Texans were still in decent position to snag the #2 seed in the AFC. On Thursday night in week 16, they went on the road to face a Colts team that had just gotten their first win of the season the week before against Tennessee. The Texans were 7-point favorites over the 1-13 Colts and they lead almost the entire game, but they couldn’t put Indy away, and they ended up going down in the final moments. They lost 16-19 to the Colts on primetime television.
It was their 2nd straight defeat and by the end of the week they were locked into the #3 spot. With nothing to play for in the season finale at home, they gave the Titans a good battle before losing 22-23 to finish the year on a 3-game skid.
As the #3 seed, the Texans hosted the #6 seed Bengals last Saturday. They fell behind 0-7 but outscored Cincinnati 31-3 the rest of the way, shutting them out 14-0 in the 2nd half to win 31-10. That locked up a trip to #2 seed Baltimore in the divisional round.
Baltimore: When the Titans and Raiders lost in week 15, it clinched a playoff berth for the Ravens, but when they were defeated 14-34 in San Diego later that night their divisional title hopes took a hit.
Going into week 17, the Ravens would clinch the AFC North and a first round bye with a win at Cincinnati or a loss by the Steelers in Cleveland. If the Ravens lost and the Steelers won, Baltimore would end up as the #5 seed. If the Ravens won and the Patriots lost, Baltimore would snag the #1 seed. If the Pats and Ravens both won, Baltimore would be the #2 seed.
The Ravens took care of the Bengals, 24-16, clinching the AFC North. The Patriots wound up winning as well, so the Ravens finished as the #2 seed.
Records and Trends
Houston: The Texans are now 11-6 overall on the season and 10-5-2 ATS. They are 5-3 on the road (5-3 ATS) and they have a +7.3 average scoring differential. Last week’s win over the Bengals snapped Houston’s 3-game losing streak. They had been 0-2-1 ATS in their last 3 games before covering last Saturday. They lost their last road game back in week 16 at Indianapolis.
Baltimore: The Ravens are 12-4 overall but just 8-7-1 ATS. They are a perfect 8-0 at home this season (just 4-3-1 ATS) and they have a +7.0 average scoring differential.
The Ravens have won their last 2 games and 6 of their last 7. They had lost 3 straight ATS prior to covering against the Bengals in week 17.
The Ravens have won 10 straight at home and 18 of their last 19 in Baltimore. However, they are just 7-8-1 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons.
Team Stats and Rankings
Houston: The Texans were 10th in the league in points scored per game (23.8) and 13th in yards per game (372.1) this season. Defensively, they were 4th in scoring defense (17.4) and 2nd in total defense (285.7). Football Outsiders ranked Houston 9th in offense, 8th in defense, 12th in special teams, and 5th overall.
The Texans were 6th in giveaways this season and 12th in takeaways. They were tied for 7th in the NFL with a +7 turnover margin. The Texans were 13th in penalties and 18th in penalty yards.
One problem area for Houston offensively has been in the red zone, where they were 25th in TD percentage (46.7%). On the other side, they were 9th in the NFL in defensive red zone TD percentage (47.7%).
The Texans scored on a punt return, an interception return, and a fumble return during the regular season, while allowing just 1 fumble return for a TD.
Last week the Texans whipped the Bengals 34-10, despite having fewer first downs (19-21) and only outgaining Cinci 340-300. They dominated the rushing game (188-76) while being outgained in the air (152-224).
The biggest key was their 3-0 edge in turnovers and their INT returned for a TD by JJ Watt.
They went 6 for 12 on 3rd down while the Bengals were 6 for 13 on 3rd down and 0 for 2 on 4th down. The Texans scored a TD on their only RZ possession and their only GtoG possession. The Bengals scored a TD on just 1 of 3 red zone possessions and on their only goal to go possession.
The Texans had 4 sacks for -33 yards and allowed 2 sacks for -7 yards.
Baltimore: The Ravens finished the regular season 12th in scoring offense (23.6) and 15th in total offense (338.7). As always, their strength is on defense. They were 3rd in scoring defense (16.6) and 3rd in total defense (288.9). Football Outsiders ranked them 13th in offense; 1st in defense; 30th in special teams; and 7th overall.
Baltimore was tied for 16th in giveaways and tied for 13th in takeaways. They were tied 11th in turnover differential at +2. The Ravens are 10th in penalties per game and 5th in penalty yards per game.
Baltimore was 17th in offensive RZ TD% (51.0%) but 1st in that category defensively (38.1%). They scored touchdowns on 1 punt return, 1 INT return, and 3 fumble returns. Unfortunately, they also allowed 2 PR TD’s, 1 KR TD, 1 INT TD, and 1 FR TD.
Injury News
Houston: Tackle Rashad Butler (tri); LB Mario Williams (pec); safety Dominique Barber (foot); QB Matt Schaub; QB Matt Leinart (clavicle); and punter Brett Hartmann (knee) are on IR. LB Darryl Sharpton (quad) is also out for the season.
Safety Troy Nolan (ankle) has missed the last 3 games but is probable for this week. TE Owen Daniels suffered a hand injury last week but is probable. The Texans list 16 other players as probable.
Baltimore: CB Dominique Foxworth (knee) and LB Chavis Williams (foot) are on IR. WR/KR David Reed (knee) is also out for the season.
LB Jameel McClain (knee) is listed as questionable. RB Anthony Allen (thigh) has missed the last 11 games and is questionable for this week. LB Brenden Ayonbadejo (quad) is also listed as questionable.
LB Dannell Ellerbe (concussion) missed the last game but is probable for Sunday. WR Anquan Boldin (knee) missed the last 2 games but is probable for this one. His return would be huge.
Safety Tom Zbikowski (concussion); CB Jimmy Smith (concussion); and guard Marshal Yonda (ribs) are probable.
Series History
These teams have played 5 times (all since 2002) and the Ravens are 5-0 against the Texans (4-1 ATS). They are 2-0 against Houston at home. The Ravens have won their last 3 ATS when facing Houston. Baltimore won the last meeting back in week 6 at home, 29-14. 3 of the 5 games in this series have been decided by 6 points or less, including 1 game that lasted into overtime. This will be the first ever meeting between these two teams in the playoffs.
Recap of Week 6 Meeting
In week 6, the Ravens hosted the Texans who were playing without Andre Johnson. The Ravens were coming off of a bye, while the Texans were coming off of their first loss of the season, which came on the final play of the game against Oakland. Baltimore ended up winning 29-14, but the game might have been closer if the Texans had taken more advantage of their scoring opportunities.
The Texans moved into Baltimore territory on their first drive of the game before punting and pinning the Ravens at their own 3. The Ravens were not fazed. They went on a 16-play, 97-yard march, eating up 8:47, with Joe Flacco scoring on a 1-yard run to make it 7-0. There was only 1:08 left in the 1st quarter when the Texans began their 2nd drive.
The Texans again moved into Baltimore territory on their 2nd possession before punting, pinning the Ravens at their own 11. The strategy worked for the Texans this time. On 4th and 19 from their own 2, the Ravens punted and the Texans took over at the Baltimore 46. On 4th and 1 from the 20, Arian Foster was stopped for no gain and the Ravens took over with 7:33 left in the half.
On 3rd and 7 from the Baltimore 24, Flacco was sacked and fumbled, with the Texans recovering at the 17. 3 plays later on 1st and goal from the 6, Ben Tate drove to the 1 but then fumbled. However, his fumble was recovered by a teammate for a touchdown, tying the game with 4:48 to go in the half.
Baltimore responded with a FG to make it 10-7 with only 1:50 to play in the half. Houston then went 3-and-out and the Ravens got it back at their own 39 with 31 seconds left. On the first play after the punt, Flacco was picked off at the Texans 34 with 21 seconds left.
Matt Schaub hit Jacoby Jones with a pass for 21 yards to the Baltimore 45 and the Texans used their 2nd timeout with 14 seconds on the clock. After a false start, Foster caught a pass for 8 yards to the Baltimore 42 and the Texans had to use their final timeout. Schaub threw 2 incomplete passes and the clock ran out in the half, with Baltimore leading 10-7.
Baltimore opened the 2nd half by driving for a 48-yard FG by Billy Cundiff to make it 13-7. Houston responded by going 80 yards on 6 plays for a score, with Jones catching a 32-yard TD to put the Texans ahead 14-13.
On the ensuing Baltimore possession, Torrey Smith hauled in a pass for 51 yards, giving the Ravens a first down at the 13. On 3rd and 2 from the 5, Ray Rice was stopped for a loss of 2 yards and the Ravens settled for another FG to retake the lead, 16-14 with 3:30 to go in the 3rd.
The Texans picked up 1 first down on their next possession and then punted. The Ravens took over at their 34 and on the first play Flacco hit Boldin for 56 yards and a first down at the 10. But then Ray Rice lost 5 yards on the final play of the 3rd quarter. Baltimore ended up settling for yet another FG, making it 19-14.
The Texans took the ball into Baltimore territory on their next drive but they wound up punting on 4th and 9 from the 38. The ball went into the end zone for a touchback. The Ravens picked up 1 first down and then punted. The Texans took over at their own 14 and went 3-and-out.
Baltimore got the ball back at their own 34 with 6:38 to go. They marched 66 yards in 6 plays, with Ricky Williams scoring on a 4-yard run to make it 26-14 with 4:01 on the clock. On the ensuing Houston drive, they faced 4th and 4 from their own 26. Schaub hit Jones for a 1st down at the 30, but the call was reversed by replay and the Ravens took over on downs.
1 more Cundiff FG made and 1 more Houston 4-and-out ended the game with the Ravens winning 29-14.
The Ravens had a 24-18 edge in first downs and a 402-293 edge in total yards. They outgained Houston 113-93 on the ground and 289-200 in the air. They lost the turnover battle 0-2 but they won the sack battle 4-2.
The Ravens were just 3 for 11 on 3rd down, while the Texans were 6 for 16 on 3rd down and 0 for 3 on 4th down. Baltimore scored TD’s on 2 of 4 RZ possessions and their only GtoG possession. The Texans scored TD’s on 2 of 3 RZ possessions and their only GtoG possession.
Cundiff went 5 for 5 on FG’s. The Ravens had a 5:30 edge in TOP.
Boldin had a big day, catching 8 passes for 132 yards.
Team Playoff Histories
Houston: The Texans won their first ever playoff game last week at home over Cincinnati, 31-10. Now they will play in their first ever road playoff game.
Baltimore: This is the Ravens 8th playoff appearance (all since 2000), their 4th straight, and the 5th in the last 6 years. They won the only SB they have ever played in. They have played in 2 conference championship games.
The Ravens are 9-6 overall in the playoffs but just 1-2 at home. They are 2-4 in the divisional round (0-1 at home). They are 5-2 in their opening game of the playoffs and they have won their opening game in their last 3 appearances.
The Ravens have lost their last 2 home playoff games. This will be their first playoff game at home since the 2006 divisional round against Indy (6-15). Their last home playoff win was their first ever playoff game back in the 2000 WC round against the Broncos (21-3). They lost their last playoff game, last year at Pittsburgh in the divisional round (24-31).
Ray Lewis has played in ever playoff game in Baltimore’s history. The Ravens have now posted 4 straight winning seasons and 4 straight playoff appearances during the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era. They have won 11 or more games in 3 of those 4 seasons and have won 12 games in back to back years. This year they won their first division title of this era.
The Harbaugh/Flacco Ravens are 4-3 in the playoffs but this will be their first time playing at home. They are 1-2 in the divisional round (0-0 at home). The Harbaugh/Flacco Ravens are 3-0 in their opening game of the playoffs.
Keys to the Game
Houston: The Texans will need to handle the Baltimore crowd in their first ever road playoff game to have success.
Offensively, the Texans need to get the running game going to keep the heat off of TJ Yates. They must get Johnson involved. They need to learn from the first matchup and execute on 3rd down and in the red zone.
Defensively, the Texans must try and slow down the Ravens rushing attack and put in all on Joe Flacco. They need to get off on 3rd down and force FG’s like they did in the last meeting. The must limit big plays and try and force turnovers.
The goal for the Texans will be to keep the game close and not make mistakes.
Baltimore: Getting off to a good start could be big for the Ravens because the crowd might rattle Yates.
Offensively, the Ravens need to stick with the run and not get too cute. The must do a better job executing on 3rd down and near the end zone this time. They need to protect the ball and try and get Boldin involved.
Defensively, the Ravens should focus on stopping the run and put it all on Yates. They must get off on 3rd down and play tough in their own territory just like last meeting. When they have the chance they should try to force Yates into mistakes.
Sunday’s Late Game
New York Giants (+8) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers win but Giants beat the spread
Comments: This one could be a classic. It could just as easily be a laugher.
This will be a rematch from the regular season and a rematch of that classic NFC championship game back in 2007. That one sent the Giants on to the Super Bowl where they would shock the undefeated Patriots to win the championship. It also happened to be Brett Favre’s last game with the Packers.
Can the Giants do it again? Can they make another stunning run to the Super Bowl? Can the Packers repeat? Are they the dominant team that went 15-1 this season or are they on the decline? We will find out a lot about both teams this weekend.
Fox saved their #1 team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman for this one. Yay. Maybe the fact that my team was getting humiliated had a lot to do with it, but I got tired of Buck and Aikman yammering back and forth in monotone last Sunday. It’s too bad we don’t have Pat Summeral and John Madden for this one.
The Packers are expected to roll and this one could easily turn into a rout. On the other hand, we all have memories of that 2007 game in our minds, and if it’s anything like that it one it will be a classic.
Playoff Position/Update
New York Giants: The Giants were the last of the 12 playoff teams to qualify for the postseason. The Giants hosted the Cowboys in the final game of the NFL’s regular season. The winner would go on to the playoffs as the NFC East division winner and the #4 seed; the loser would go home. The G-Men pounded the Boys, 31-14, to take the division title and get into the playoffs as the NFC’s #4 seed.
Last week the #4 seed Giants hosted the #5 seed Falcons. They led 7-2 at halftime and broke it open in the 2nd half. They shutout Atlanta 17-0 in the 2nd half and went on to win 24-2 in dominant fashion. The Saints had already won, so the Giants would be headed to play #1 Green Bay in the divisional round.
Green Bay: The Packers defeated the Giants 38-35 in week 13 to clinch a playoff spot. With the Bears losing to the Chiefs earlier that day, the Packers clinched the division when Detroit lost to the Saints later that night. The next week the Packers crushed the Raiders, 46-16, clinching a first round bye. After losing in week 15, the Packers defeated the Bears at home (35-21) in week 16 on Sunday night to wrap up the top seed in the NFC playoffs.
Records and Trends
New York Giants: The G-Men are now 10-7 overall and 9-7-1 ATS. They are 5-3 on the road (5-3 ATS), although in reality they are 4-3 on the road (4-3 ATS), as one of their road games was against the Jets at their home stadium. They have a +1.0 average scoring differential. The Giants have won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 (3 straight and 4 of 5 ATS). They’ve won their last 2 on the road (2-0 ATS).
Green Bay: The Packers are 15-1 overall and 11-5 ATS. They are 8-0 at home (7-1 ATS) and they have a +12.6 average scoring differential. Their 19-game win streak was snapped at KC in week 15 but they have since won back to back games (2-0 ATS). They have won 13 in a row at home.
Team Stats and Rankings
New York Giants: The Giants were 9th in scoring offense (24.6) and 8th in total offense (385.1) this season. They finished 25th in scoring defense (25.0) and 27th in total defense (376.4). Football Outsiders ranked the Giants 7th in offense, 20th in defense, 16th in special teams, and 12th overall.
The Giants have been tough to stop in the red zone, as they were 8th in RZ TD% (52.5%), but they haven’t been very good at stopping teams from scoring in the red zone on the other end. They were 23rd in defensive RZ TD% (55.7%).
This season the Giants were tied 16th in giveaways, but they were tied 5th in takeaways, and they had a +7 turnover differential, good for tied 7th in the NFL.
The Giants were 11th in penalties and 9th in penalty yards. They returned a fumble for a TD and notched 2 safeties during the regular season, while allowing 3 pick-sixes and a safety.
Last week the Giants won 24-2 over the Falcons. They had a 19-14 edge in first downs and outgained the Falcons 442-247. They dominated the ground game (172-64) and outpassed the Falcons 270-183.
They were 8 for 15 on 3rd down and 1 for 1 on 4th down. Defensively, they held the Falcons to 4 for 14 on 3rd down and 0 for 3 on 4th down. There were no turnovers in the game. The Giants went 1 for 2 on FG tries.
They scored TD’s on only 1 of 3 RZ possessions and 1 of 2 GtoG possession. They held the Falcons out of the end zone on their only RZ possession and they were never in a goal to go situation. The Giants had a 9 minute edge in TOP. They allowed a safety but had a 2-1 edge in sacks.
Green Bay: The Packers finished the season 1st in scoring offense (35.0) and 3rd in total offense (405.1). They were just 19th in scoring defense (22.4) and dead last at 32nd in total defense (411.6). Football Outsiders ranked them 1st in offense; 24th in defense; 8th in special teams; and 1st overall.
The Packers were 2nd in giveaways; tied 1st in takeaways; and 2nd in turnover differential at +24. They were 3rd in penalties and 2nd in penalty yards.
The Packers were 4th in offensive RZ TD% (65.2%) but just 22nd in that category on defense (55.4%). They had 1 PR TD, 1 KR TD, 4 INT TD’s, and 1 FR TD. They allowed 1 PR TD, 1 FR TD, and 2 safeties.
Injury News
New York Giants: WR Domenik Hixon (knee); CB Justin Tryon (arm); CB Michael Coe (shoulder); WR Michael Clayton (knee); tackle William Beatty (eye); and tackle Stacy Andrews (lung) are on IR. LB Mark Herzlich (ankle) has been ruled out for this week.
RB/KR Da’Rel Scott (knee) missed last week but is probable for Sunday. CB Aaron Ross (concussion); RB Ahmad Bradshaw (back; foot); RB Danny Ware (concussion); safety Deon Grant (quad); DE Osi Umenyiora (ankle); and CB Corey Webster (hamstring) are all probable.
Green Bay: Safety Nick Collins (neck); RB Alex Green (knee); TE Andrew Quarless (knee); and tackle Derek Sherrod (leg) are on IR.
LB Rob Francis (hamstring) is doubtful. RB James Starks reinjured an ankle in week 17 but is probable for this week. CB Charles Woodson (knee) and WR/PR Randall Cobb (groin) missed week 17 but they are listed as probable.
Tackle Bryan Bulaga (knee) missed the last 2 games but is probable for Sunday. WR Greg Jennings (knee) missed the final 3 games but he is probable for this week.
Tackle Chad Clifton (hamstring) and center Evan Dietrich-Smith (illness) are also listed as probable.
Series History
This series has been going on since 1928. The Packers hold a 31-23-2 edge in the all-time series. They are 14-8 against the Giants at home. The Packers have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two going back to 1995. They are 3-1 against the Giants since 2007 and they have won the last 2 meetings. They won the last meeting back in week 13 on the road, 38-35. They won the last game at home last season, 45-17.
This will be the 7th time these two teams have met in the playoffs. The Packers are 4-2 against the Giants in the playoffs (2-1 at home). These two teams met in the pre-SB era NFL championship game 5 times. In 1938, the Giants defeated the Packers at home, 23-17. The next year the Packers beat New York at home, 27-0. In 1944, the Packers beat New York on the road, 14-7. In 1961, Lombardi’s Packers shutout the Giants, 37-0, at Lambeau. The next year, the Packers went to New York and won 16-7.
The two didn’t meet in the playoffs again until 2007. This time it was in the NFC championship game. The Giants shocked the Packers, 23-20, in OT, in what turned out to be Brett Favre’s last game as a member of the Packers.
Recap of Week 13 Meeting
This recap will have to be a bit briefer than usual do to time constraints.
Green Bay defeated the Giants on the road in week 13, 38-35. The Giants were without Osi Umenyiora and Mario Manningham, while the Packers were without Chad Clifton, Desmond Bishop, and AJ Hawk.
There were some controversial calls in the game. The Giants scored first and led 10-7 after 1. Clay Mathews returned a pick for a TD to put Green Bay ahead. The Giants retook the lead on a Brandon Jacobs TD, but Aaron Rodgers hit Donald Driver for a score to give the Packers a 21-17 lead at the half.
The Packers opened the 2nd half with an 80-yard drive capped off by a TD to Greg Jennings. New York answered with a TD to Hakeem Nicks. A FG brought the Giants within a point with 10:53 left in the game. Donald Driver’s 2nd TD catch of the game made it 35-27 with 3:34 to go.
Manning led the Giants on a 9-play, 62-yard drive, with Nicks catching another TD. Danny Ware ran in the 2-point conversion to tie the game with only 58 seconds left. After a touchback, Rodgers moved the Packers to the Giants 29 on just 2 plays. He then hit Jennings at the 12 and the Packers called their final timeout with 3 seconds left. Mason Crosby’s field goal won it, 38-35.
Team Playoff Histories
New York Giants: This is the 31st playoff appearance for the Giants (first was in 1933), their 5th in the last 7 years, and their first since 2008. They are now 21-24 overall in the playoffs (6-14 on the road). They are 5-7 in the divisional round (1-5 on the road). The Giants won last week at home, 24-2, against at Atlanta. They have won their last 3 road playoff games. Their last loss on the road in the playoffs was in the 2006 WC round at Philly (20-23). This is the 5th playoff appearance for the Giants during the Tom Couglin/Eli Manning era. They are now 5-3 in the playoffs during that time (3-1 on the road) and 1-1 in the divisional round (1-0 on the road).They are 1-0 against the Packers in the playoffs during that time (1-0 on the road). This the 9th playoff appearance for Coughlin (with the Giants and Jags). His teams are now 9-7 overall.
Green Bay: The Packers have perhaps the greatest history in the NFL. This is their 27th playoff appearance (first was in 1936), the 14th in the last 19 years, the 8th in the last 11 years, the 4th in the last 5 years, and their 3rd straight. They have won 4 SB in 5 appearances. Green Bay won 3 pre-playoff NFL titles and 6 pre-SB NFL championships. They played in 8 pre-SB NFL championship games and they have played in 7 conference championship games. They have a total of 13 NFL titles.
The Packers are 29-16 overall in the playoffs and 15-3 at home. They are 7-7 in the divisional round (5-0 at home). The Packers are 18-8 in their opening game of the playoffs. Green Bay has won 4 straight in the playoffs, winning the Super Bowl last year. Their last loss was at Arizona in the 2009 WC round (45-51 in OT). Their last loss at home in the playoffs was in the 2007 NFC championship game against the Giants (20-23 in OT). Their last home playoff win was in the 2007 divisional round against the Seahawks (42-20). They are just 2-3 at home in the playoffs since 2002.
During Mike McCarthy’s 6 years in Green Bay, the Packers have posted 5 non-losing seasons, 4 winning seasons, 4 double digit win seasons, and 4 playoff appearances. They are 5-2 in the playoffs under McCarthy (1-1 at home) and 2-0 in the divisional round (1-0 at home). They are 2-1 in their opening game of the playoffs during this era.
Aaron Rodgers will be making his 3rd appearance in the playoffs. He is 4-1 in the playoffs so far and this will be his first home playoff game. He’s 1-0 in the divisional round (0-0 at home) and 1-1 in his opening game of the playoffs. McCarthy’s packers are 0-1 against the Giants in the playoffs (0-1 at home).
Keys to the Game
New York Giants: On offense, the Giants need to get the ground game going and eat clock. They must take care of the ball, hit big plays, execute on scoring tries and not settle for FG’s. Manning must be aware of Clay Mathews at all times.
Defensively, the Giants have to get pressure on Rodgers with their front 4 and stop the run at the same time. They need to try and cause a turnover or two. They have to limit Green Bay’s big plays, hold on 3rd down and in the red zone, and not allow any big returns in special teams.
Green Bay: Defensively, the Packers need to slow the run and limit the big plays. They should try and force Manning into mistakes. On offense, the Packers need to protect Rodgers and just do their thing. They need to take care of the ball and score TD’s when they have the chance.
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