More Really Late Midseason Notes
I need to apologize in advance, as this is yet another late entry. Just not enough time/energy/stimulants at the moment. However, there’s some interesting stuff here and I can’t stand putting time/work in and then not posting the material. So enjoy, or don’t enjoy, (non-existent) Reader. All of the following numbers were collected at the time of the All-Star Break.
More Details on the Rise of the Decline of Offense
My earliest baseball memories came in the late 80’s, but I grew up on early 90’s baseball. I knew the game well. I knew the game so well that I was apparently one of the only people who realized that players were getting bigger, ERA’s were getting higher, and home run totals were getting prolificker (yes, I know that’s not a word) in the middle 90’s. According to many of the loudest “sports journalists” out there, homers and hitters bulked up sneakily, right under everyone’s noses. That’s weird because I was like 13 and I knew what was going on. So I guess I’m special in that regard.
Anyway, the explosion of offense in baseball began (or at least became evident) after the 1992 season, it peaked at around the turn of the millennium, and it continued well into the 2000’s. While offense was down towards the end of the last decade, it didn’t significantly decline until last season. Offense has not rebounded this season. In fact, the decline has steepened dramatically. I have to be honest, folks: I did not see this coming. In terms of offense, run scoring, and power, the game has finally fallen back to pre-1993 expansion levels. Unfortunately, I’ll be turning 30 on Thursday. To my surprise (and, I must admit, annoyance), offense in baseball looks a lot like it did when I was 11.
It’s not that I didn’t love the game when I was 10 or 11, and it’s not that I don’t love it now. I did and do very much. It’s not that I liked the game in 2000 so much more. I didn’t. While I don’t hate 9-7 games as much as some people, I actually like a little less offense than we had in the early 2000’s. However, I do like more offense than we have now. But this is beside the point. The only reason I’m annoyed is that the drastic drop off in offense has allowed loudmouthed commentators to pan the previous 15 years as completely driven by PED’s and therefore fake, fraudulent, and meaningless. None of those claims are true of course, but it doesn’t change the fact that a multitude of uninformed experts are convinced otherwise and rarely stop trying to tell you all about it.
Oh wait, there is another reason I’m annoyed by the drop-off in hitting, power, and run scoring. Whenever there is a change in the way a game is played, there will inevitably follow talk about how people are going to “start looking at the game in a different way.” This is usually not a false or even annoying statement. However, in the case of the most recent change in baseball there is one “different way” in particular that people keep insisting will come back and make things awesome. This different and apparently forgotten way to play is often referred to as “the speed game.”
You might here a middle aged sports broadcaster say something like this, “Well, you look around baseball: power numbers are down, pitchers have the upper hand, runs are at a premium. Hopefully now we’re going to see the speed game come back into vogue. And I really think we’re going to see teams playing the game the way they did back in (fill in whatever pre-power era decade or time period you wish). The brand of game that is faster and I’ve always felt more exciting from a fan’s prospective.” My eyes roll back in my head each time I hear this plea. Okay, I get it, the stolen base is cool. Now please stop claiming that Vince Coleman’s Cardinals running around on the Busch Stadium Astroturf is baseball in its purest and grandest form.
Besides the silly notion that the so-called “speed game” is some higher style of play, the claim that the elimination of PED’s and the decrease in run scoring will lead to a resurgence in stolen base attempts, bunts, and hit-and-run plays is retarded (don’t care if you find that adjective lacking; it’s totally appropriate). If “runs are at a premium” then outs are at a premium, so I would think it unlikely that managers would suddenly look more approvingly on brain dead base stealing, AKA: risking an out to move up 90 feet when you’re chances of success are anything less than really, really good. And why exactly would the absence of PED’s and stimulants lead to an increase in speed and athleticism?
With all of this said, I’m happy to announce up front, that as far as I can tell, a wave of small ball and dome stadiums is not on its way. The SB/game average in MLB this season is 0.67; the CS/game average is 0.26. True, these numbers do represent an increase. If these numbers stay the same, the SB/game average will have increased 3 straight seasons. However, it’s important to note when these stats last reached their current levels. The 0.67 SB/game average would be the highest since it was 0.70 in (wait for it) 2000! Yes, that’s right. The peak year of the run scoring, power, and overall offensive explosion of the so-called Steroids Era! The 0.26 CS/game average would be the highest since it was 0.29 in 2001. Again, right in the thick of all those PED’s and long balls. Perhaps most importantly, these numbers are not anywhere approaching the numbers from the Astroturf days.
By the way, throughout the so-called steroids era, when we apparently got away from the running game and small ball, the average number of stolen bases and stolen base attempts per game was consistently higher than it was in the 1930’s, 1940’s, 1950’s, or 1960’s, including those so-called golden years when Willie, Mickey, and the Duke played.
Okay, so the idea that teams are going to start modeling themselves after Whitey Herzog’s Cardinals is a lie. What is true is that offense is down (or pitching is up) dramatically across the board. It’s at its lowest point since pre-1993 expansion. At the Break, the runs/game average in MLB was 4.18; the lowest since 1992 when the average was 4.12. This would be the 5th straight year that the R/G mark declined. The number was 4.38 last season, 4.80 in 2007, and 5.14 in 2000. That’s a huge difference.
As you would expect, all of the other offensive categories are down as well. Here’s a brief rundown of some of the major stats:
The hits/game average is currently 8.59. That would be the lowest mark since 8.19 in 1972 and the 5th straight year of decline. The number was 8.76 last season and 9.25 in 2007.
The doubles/game average is currently 1.70. That would be the lowest since 1.64 in 1993 and the 4th straight year of decline. It was 1.75 last year and 1.89 in 2007.
The homeruns/game average is currently 0.89. That would be the lowest since 0.89 in 1993 and the 2nd straight year of decline. It was 0.95 last year, 1.11 in 2006, and 1.17 in 2000. From 1994-2009 the HR/Game average was at least 1.00 every year for 16 straight years. This would be the 2nd straight year under 1.00.
The total bases/game average is currently 13.31. That would be the worst since 12.80 in 1992 and the 5th straight year of decline. It was 13.71 last year, 14.26 in 2009, and 15.05 in 2000.
The league batting average is currently .253. That would be the worst since .244 in 1972 and the 5th straight year of decline. The number was .269 in 2006.
The league on-base percentage is currently .319. That would the worst since .318 in 1988. It was .337 in 2006 and .345 in 2000.
The league slugging percentage is .391. That would be the worst since .377 in 1992 and the 2nd straight year of decline. From 1993-2010, the league slugging percentage was .400 or better for 18 straight seasons. It was .403 last year, .418 in 2009, and .432 in 2006.
The league OPS is currently .711. That would be the worst since .700 in 1992 and the 2nd straight year of decline. It was .728 last year, .751 in 2009, and .782 in 2000.
Team Projections/Highs and Lows (all numbers reflect standings at the ASB)
Note: Luck is number of wins above or below projected win total based on run differential. Simple Rating is run differential + strength of schedule. Strength of schedule is opponents’ run differential above or below average team.
NL Best Record: Phillies (on pace for 101.5 wins)
AL Best Record: Red Sox (on pace for 99 wins)
NL Worst Record: Astros (on pace for 53 wins)
AL Worst Record: Royals (on pace for 66 wins)
Best Average Run Differential: Yankees (+1.4)
Worst Average Run Differential: Astros (-1.2)
Hardest 1st Half Schedule: Blue Jays
Easiest 1st Half Schedule: Dodgers
Best Simple Rating: Yankees
Worst Simple Rating: Astros
Luckiest Team: Giants (+5)
Unluckiest Team: Astros (-5)
Best Interleague Record: Yankees and Angels (13-5)
Worst Interleague Record: Royals (5-13)
Best Home Record: Phillies (34-15)
Worst Home Record: Astros (14-33)
Best Road Record: Red Sox (27-18)
Worst Road Record: Orioles (14-30)
Best Extra Innings Record: Dodgers (5-0); Blue Jays (8-2)
Worst Extra Innings Record: Marlins and A’s (5-10); Rockies (1-5)
Most Extra Inning Games: Braves (18)
Fewest Extra Inning Games: Tigers (3)
Best Record in 1-run Games: Giants (25-12)
Worst Record in 1-run Games: A’s (12-20)
Most 1-run Games: Twins (38)
Fewest 1-run Games: Tigers (19)
Best Record vs. RHP: Braves (39-25)
Worst Record vs. RHP: Astros (17-47)
Best Record vs. LHP: Giants (18-6)
Worst Record vs. LHP: Royals (8-15)
Best Record vs. .500 or Better: Giants (27-17)
Worst Record vs. .500 or Better: Astros (13-40)
Best Record vs. Under .500: Phillies (30-11)
Worst Record vs. Under .500: Cubs (16-24)
Best over Last 10: Red Sox (9-1)
Worst over Last 10: Orioles and Astros (1-9)
Best over Last 20: Angels (16-4)
Worst over Last 20: Astros (3-17)
Best over Last 30: Red Sox and Phillies (21-9)
Worst over Last 30: Astros (6-24)
Attendance Numbers
On the whole, attendance was down in Major League Baseball during the 1st half. To be exact, the total attendance figure was down 217,193 from the same point last year, an average of 159 less fans per game. Of the 30 MLB teams, 12 teams experienced an increase in attendance compared with last season, while 18 teams experienced a decline through the same point last year.
No real surprise that the Texas Rangers have had the biggest increase so far, averaging 9,618 more fans per game, for a total gain of 471,271. For various reasons, most of the other attendance increasing teams were not surprising: the Giants, Reds, and Padres (presumably for last year’s successes on the field); the Indians and Pirates (presumably for this year’s surprise successes on the field); the Brewers (presumably for the moves made during the off-season to strengthen the pitching staff); and the Phillies (presumably for the sustained success of the team over the last few years and the buzz surrounding their great pitching staff).
The other attendance gainers were not as easily explained away: Toronto, Colorado, Oakland, Florida. For Oakland and the Marlins, the numbers were really low to begin with so they really only had one way to go. For the Rockies and Jays I have no real idea.
It was also no real surprise that the Los Angeles Dodgers have had the biggest decrease in attendance so far, averaging 8,346 fewer fans per game, for a total loss of 417, 318. Most of the other losers were relatively easy to explain or understand, but there were 3 attendance declining teams that were a bit surprising.
The biggest of all may be the Atlanta Braves, who made it back to the playoffs last year for the first time since 2005, have several exciting young players and made a big move to bring on Dan Uggla during the off-season, and have been very good so far this season. Outside of the usual explanations for the lukewarm attendance figures at Turner, the only thing I can offer is that due to weather complications they did have to play a pair of “true” double headers, meaning they recorded only one gate for two games. Obviously that could have a significant effect on numbers, but it certainly doesn’t account for everything.
The other two surprises were the Nationals and the D-Backs. The Diamondbacks were awful last year and the biggest shifts in attendance are usually based on the previous year’s performance. However, the attendance figures in Arizona were low last year, and this season they’ve been a much better team, so you might have expected them to have a slight bump up at least.
The Nationals situation is more puzzling. Again, the comparison attendance numbers were small to begin with. The Nats have several highly touted young players, they made a huge commitment in signing free agent Jayson Werth during the offseason, and so far this season they’ve had their best year on the field since their first one in Washington back in 2005. I’m guessing the dip in attendance is all about Stephen Strasburg breaking on the scene last year and his absence this season.
Once again the Phillies are atop the league in attendance, averaging 45,482 a game, for a first half total of 2,228,630. And once again, the two Florida teams are at the bottom. At 17,276 a game, the Marlins have the worst average attendance in baseball, while the Rays (averaging 19,115 a game) had the lowest total attendance of 802,849.
I always find it interesting to compare where a team ranks in the standings with where they rank in average attendance. At the break, 14 teams ranked higher in average attendance than in the standings, 14 teams ranked lower, and 2 teams were right on target. Note: Standings were based on W-L record and there were several ties.
Attendance rank higher than win% rank: Yankees, Giants, Twins, Angels, Cardinals, Dodgers, Cubs, Rockies, Mets, Reds Astros, Padres, Orioles, Royals.
Attendance rank lower than win% rank: Red Sox, Rangers, Brewers, Tigers, Braves, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Nationals, Mariners, Blue Jays, Indians, Athletics, Rays, Marlins.
Attendance rank even with win% rank: Phillies and White Sox.
Four teams ranked at least 13 spots higher in attendance than in winning percentage: Astros (+13), Dodgers (+15), Cubs (+19), and Twins (+19).
Five teams ranked at least 10 spots lower in attendance than in winning percentage: Marlins (-10), Braves (-11), Diamondbacks (-11), Indians (-13), and Rays (-22).
A Look at the Standings at Midseason
At the All-Star break, 15 MLB teams were over .500, 14 were under, and 1 was at .500.
National League: 8 winning teams (1 at .500)
11 of 16 teams within 8.5 games of leader in division or WC race
NL East: 3 winning teams (1 at .500)
Lead: Phillies (3.5 over Braves, 11 over the rest)
NL Central: 3 winning teams
Lead: Brewers and Cardinals (1 over Pirates, 4 over Reds, 12 over rest)
NL West: 2 winning teams
Lead: Giants (3 over Diamondbacks, 8.5 over rest)
NL Wildcard
Lead: Braves (5 over Brewers/Cardinals and Diamondbacks)
American League: 7 winning teams
11 of 14 teams within 10 games of leader in division or WC race
AL East: 3 winning teams
Lead: Red Sox (1 over Yankees, 6 over Rays, 11 over rest)
AL Central: 2 winning teams
Lead: Tigers (0.5 over Indians, 5 over White Sox, 6.5 over Twins, 11.5 over Royals)
AL West: 2 winning teams
Lead: Rangers (1 over Angels, 7.5 over Mariners, 12 over Athletics)
AL Wildcard
Lead: Yankees (5 over Rays and Angels)
Stat Leaders at the Break
Jose Reyes led the NL with a .354 average at the break. Reyes would be 1st ever Mets player to win batting title. Would be 7th straight first time NL batting champ; in other words, the 7th straight year that a different guy won the NL batting title and the 7th straight year the champ was a first time winner. With 15 triples so far, Reyes already has more than any MLB player since he had 19 in 2008. He is on pace for 27. That would be the most triples in one season in either league since Chief Wilson had 36 in 1912.
Adrian Gonzalez was the AL average leader at the break. Batting titles haven’t been quite as hard to come by for Red Sox hitters as they have been for Mets hitters. Again, Reyes would be the first New York Mets player in their 50 year history to win the NL batting title. A-Gon led the AL in hitting in the first half, and if he goes on to win the batting title he’ll be the 17th Boston player to win it during the 50 years that the Mets have been in existence.
Jose Bautista is on pace for 55 homers, which would top last year’s total by 1. He could be the first player to win back to back ML homerun titles since A-Rod in 2002-2003. A-Rod tied Jim Thome in 2003. The last player to win back to back ML HR titles with no ties was Mark McGwire in 1998-1999. Currently leads the AL with a .468 OBP. He would be the first AL player with an OBP of .450 or higher since Jason Giambi’s .477 OBP in 2001. Bautista also led the AL in slugging during the first half at .702. He could be the first AL player to slug .700 since Mark McGwire slugged .730 in 1996. With a 1.170 OPS Joey Bats obviously led the AL during the first half. That would be the highest OPS for an AL player since Big Mac posted a 1.198 OPS in 1996.
Lance Berkman’s bounce back year has been impressive but he could end up setting some not so positive marks if he winds up leading the NL in Slugging or OPS. Last season Joey Votto (who is going for back to back NL OBP titles) led the NL with a .602 SLG. At the break this season, Berkman led the NL with a .602 slugging percentage. Clearly, he could become the first player to lead the NL with a slugging percentage below .600 since Will Clark slugged .536 back in 1991. Berkman’s 1.006 OPS was also tops in the NL at the break. He could be the first player to lead the NL with an OPS below 1.000 since Barry Bonds posted a .924 OPS in 1991. Berkman led the NL in homers in the 1st half, and he could end up being the first player to lead the NL with less than 40 homers since 1992 when the Crime Dog was tops with 35.
At the break, 4 players were on pace to reach the 40 homerun mark. Bautista (on pace for 55), Mark Teixeira (on pace for 46), Curtis Granderson (on pace for 46), and Berkman (on pace for 42).
Jered Weaver (1.86) and Jair Jurrjens (1.87) led their respective leagues in ERA at the break. Since Pedro Martinez’s ridiculous 1.74 in 2000, only Roger Clemens (1.87 in 2005) has finished with a sub-2.00 ERA.
At the break there were 6 pitchers with a sub-1.00 WHIP. No pitcher has finished the season with a WHIP under 1.00 since Johan Santana (0.997) in 2006. Justin Verlander led the majors with a 0.87 WHIP during the 1st half. He would be the first pitcher to finish with a WHIP under 0.90 since Pedro’s absurd 0.737 in 2000.
CC Sabathia had the ML lead in wins at the break and was on pace for 24. Since John Smoltz won 24 games in 1996, only Randy Johnson (24 wins in 2002) has won more than 23 games in a season. The last AL pitcher to win more than 23 games was Bob Welch (27 wins in 1990).
Cliff Lee had 4 shutouts in the 1st half, already matching the most shutouts in a season by any pitcher since Dontrelle Willis had 5 in 2005. He was on pace for 7, which would be the most for any pitcher since Tim Belcher had 8 in 1989. Since then, no pitcher has had more than 5 shutouts in a season. Fellow ace Roy Halladay had 6 complete games in the 1st half, putting him on pace for 11. No pitcher has reached double digits in complete games since Randy Johnson had 12 in 1999.
Quick question: did you know that James Shields has already tossed 7 complete games and 3 shutouts this season? He’s on pace for 13 CG and 5 shutouts. 13 CG would be the highest AL total since Chuck Finley had 13 in 1993, and the highest ML total since Curt Schilling had 15 in 1998.
No comments:
Post a Comment