Braves Update
The Braves return home for a big weekend series with the Cubbies after a 6-3 road trip against the 3 teams behind them in the NL East. This will be a special weekend with the various ceremonies and big crowds expected. Hopefully the Braves can handle their business after the celebrations and not overlook the lowly Cubs.
The Bravos are just 15-11 in the 2nd half, and they are fortunate that the W-L record isn’t worse considering that they have outscored opponents by just 2 runs over that stretch. The Braves have benefited from some good luck lately, but the continued stellar work by the bullpen and a surprise offensive surge has also helped the team survive over the last month.
Despite the injuries and the struggles of the starting rotation, the Braves appear to be back on track for the first time since right before the All-Star break. They are finally on a roll again, having won 4 straight and 6 of 7. The Braves go into the series a season high 20 games over .500 at 69-49 (34-22 at home).
Despite owning the 2nd best record in the NL, the Bravos are 8.5 games back of the Phils in the NL East. The good news is that they are also 5 games up on the Giants in the wildcard standings. St. Louis (6 games back) is the only other team within 10.5 games of the Braves for the WC.
Cubs Update
It’s been business as usual for the “lovable” losers from the North Side in 2011. That means lots of losing of course, this year characterized by horrible pitching and hideous play in the field. Chicago is 51-67 overall and 22-34 on the road. They are 18 games behind the Braves in the WC standings.
However, the Cubs have had better luck lately, going 14-12 in the 2nd half, despite being outscored by 12 runs. They are 8-2 this month. The Cubs had actually won 7 straight before losing 2 in a row earlier this week. They come into the series having won their last 2 games and 9 of their last 11.
Even with a 1-run win over the Nats on Thursday the Cubs are just 17-19 in 1-run games, but they are 6-3 in extra inning affairs. That’s relevant because the Braves have played more extra inning games this season than any team in baseball.
The Cubbies are an average offensive club. They have some power but they don’t take walks and they don’t do much running. However, they are 4th in the NL in batting average and 6th in Slugging. Unfortunately for the Cub Faithful, Chicago has been awful in the field and on the mound. They are 15th in the NL in runs allowed, 15th in ERA, and 16th in WHIP. They are also dead last in Defensive Efficiency, Errors, and Fielding Percentage. They are 14th in double plays, last in quality start percentage, last in starters ERA, and 11th in bullpen ERA.
Pitching Matchups
Friday: Carlos Zambrano vs. Mike Minor
Carlos Zambrano Update
Zambrano is Zambrano. No introductions needed for anybody here. He’s somehow managed a 9-6 record this season despite posting a 4.46 ERA and a 1.429 WHIP in 23 starts. “Big Z” has averaged 6.14 innings per start and has posted 13 QS. He is 6-3 on the road with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.429 WHIP in 12 starts.
Carlos has definitely been pitching better recently. He has thrown a QS in 6 of his last 8 tries, and he is 3-1 over his last 4 starts with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP over 24.2 innings.
The Braves have usually gotten the better of Zambrano. In 12 starts against Atlanta during the regular season, Zambrano is 2-4 with a 5.43 ERA and a 1.550 WHIP.
Mike Minor Update
Minor looked pretty good in his start last Sunday in New York even though his line didn’t end up looking that great: 5.2 innings, 7 hits, 4 runs, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts. He got a no-decision in a game the Braves eventually won 6-5.
Minor is now 1-2 in 7 starts on the year with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.590 WHIP. He has thrown 3 QS and averaged 5.57 IP per start. He is 1-1 in 3 starts at home with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.558 WHIP. Those numbers are pretty ugly but the team has won in each of his last 4 starts.
Saturday: Randy Wells vs. Derek Lowe
Randy Wells Update
Randy Wells finished 6th in the NL ROY voting in 2009, but all of the so-called experts said it was a fluke. They looked pretty smart last season when Wells went 8-14 and had an ERA that was 1.21 higher than the year before. The doubters have continued to look smart this season, as Wells has been flat out terrible.
Wells is very hittable, he doesn’t strike guys out, and he doesn’t have good control. His 3-4 record in 14 starts this season is surprising given his 6.04 ERA and 1.591 WHIP. He has only 4 QS and averages 5.52 innings per start.
On the road, Wells is 1-2 in 6 starts with an ERA of 6.90 and a WHIP of 1.600. His last start was Sunday, at home against the Reds. He managed to go 7 innings, but ended up allowing 6 runs on 7 hits, including 3 dingers, with 1 walk and 1 strikeout.
For whatever reason, Wells had always looked like a stud against the Braves until last August when he was pounded for 7 runs and 3 homers in 6 innings, as the Braves rolled to a 16-5 win. Prior to that, Wells had gone at least 6 innings and allowed 2 runs or less in each of his first 3 starts against Atlanta.
Derek Lowe Update
Lowe got the win in Florida on Monday, going 6 innings and holding the Marlins to 2 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks with 3 strikeouts, as the Braves won it 8-5. But to be honest, Lowe could easily have given up 5 or 6 runs or more again. He’s 7-10 in 25 starts on the year with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.478 WHIP. He has just 11 QS and has only averaged 5.57 innings per start. He’s been even worse at Turner Field, going 2-2 in 9 starts with a 5.07 ERA and a 1.470 WHIP.
Over his last 11 appearances Lowe is 4-6, which is not a bad record considering his 6.18 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Batters have raked .321/.380/.430/.809 off of him during that stretch. The bottom line is that Lowe can’t be counted on to deliver even a mediocre performance, and he’s much, much more likely to get shelled than he is to have a better than decent start.
Sunday: Matt Garza vs. Brandon Beachy
Matt Garza Update
Matt Garza has not had the year that the Cubs and their fans hoped for when he was acquired from Tampa during the offseason. However, he’s pitched better than you might think given his 5-9 record, and he’s most certainly been their best starter this season. He’s averaged 6.12 innings over 22 starts while posting a 3.81 ERA and a 1.300 WHIP. Garza has tossed 13 QS and struck out 138 over 134.2 innings.
The good news for Braves fans is that he’s really struggled on the road, going 2-5 in 10 starts with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.518 WHIP. Still, Garza has produced a QS in 7 of his last 9 tries. He’s just 2-4 over his last 6 starts, despite posting a 2.72 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP during that time. This will be his first appearance against Atlanta.
Brandon Beachy Update
Beachy was dominant for most of the night last Tuesday before tiring in the 7th and eventually having his night wiped out by a 3-run homer off the bat of John Buck. He ended up being charged with 2 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks with 10 K over 6.2 innings. The Braves eventually won it 4-3 but Beachy didn’t factor in the decision.
He is now 5-2 in 17 starts with a 3.43 ERA, a 1.186 WHIP, and 105 K over 97 innings. He has 11 QS in 17 tries. On the downside, he has averaged only 5.71 innings per start. Beachy is 2-1 in 8 starts at home this season, posting a 3.63 ERA and a 1.209 WHIP. He is 2-0 over his last 4 starts with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. The Braves have gone 3-1 in those 4 games.
Series Outlook
This is definitely a series the Braves can win or even sweep. Actually, losing this series would be a major bummer considering it would be at home against one of the worst teams in the league. They won’t have to face a left handed starter in the series and they’ll face one of the most ineffective starters in the NL this season in Wells. On the other hand, the Braves will have their 2 weakest starters pitching in this series (Minor and Lowe), while the Cubs will have their best starter going (Garza). This is a series the Braves definitely should win, but it probably won’t be easy. If you’ve been with this team night in and night out this season, you know by now that it never is.
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