The Baseball Blog: Late MLB at the Break Update

2011 MLB at the Break

I had a good 90 hours to get a blog entry in between the time the last game ended on Sunday and the first game began on Thursday. I failed. But we’re going to pretend that I got this blog in on time. In a way it’s only fair since the “second half” really began about 2 weeks ago.

Baseball’s been a comforting old friend this summer when compelling and/or enjoyable sports were at a premium. Last year it seemed like there was always something more relevant to discuss than the nation’s so-called pastime. This year baseball has often been the only thing keeping me from giving up on sports and going for a walk or watching a movie. Off the field issues have once again dominated the sports world this year, but for once baseball has been relatively under the radar in terms of controversy and scandal. And who could have ever foreseen MLB being a shining example of harmony in a time of labor Armageddon throughout the sporting world? To be sure, there have been some low lights and negative stories this year, but at least the first half has been interesting.

Baseball may no longer be king of the sporting world in this country, but I’m pretty sure it will always rank above lockouts and strikes. I would I also feel safe in saying that sports fans enjoy baseball more than NCAA investigations and sanctions. I’m only speaking for myself here, but I have to admit that I’m probably always going to rank it over a Tiger Woods-less PGA Tour.

Okay, now that I’ve gotten that little intro out of the way (probably the most difficult three paragraphs I’ve ever written), let’s look at the biggest stories of the first half.

Chicks Dig the Low WHIP: Pitching made a major comeback last year and for the first time in many years it held the advantage in baseball. This year the gap has widened. During the recent era of offensive dominance it wasn’t just an abundance of great hitters that inflated the numbers. There were times when five or six teams did not have a single above average pitcher on their roster. Now good pitching is everywhere. I don’t often look to rotisserie baseball for evidence of what’s going on in the non-fantasy world, but that’s where the change has been most obvious to me this year. Starters with 3.00 ERA’s are a dime a dozen. It’s never been like that before. The offensive era lasted for about 15 years. If the next 15 or so years are like this, young fans are going to be really confused as to why 6 innings or 3 earned runs or less was ever considered a quality start. They won’t really that there was a time when a 4.50 ERA wasn’t all that bad. At this point, a 4.00 ERA is as bad as it was when I was first coming to know the game some 21 years ago.

Everybody Hurts: I don’t have any numbers to back this up (always a great way to open a paragraph), but I would be stunned if this weren’t the most injury plagued baseball season of my lifetime. Think about the top 100 players in the game. Now name 10 of them who haven’t missed time this season due to injury. It’s tough. You could make a modern day all-star team (meaning 50 players on the roster and at least half claiming to be unfit to play) out of the guys who have hit the DL so far this season. I’m not exaggerating. Check it out:

C. Buster Posey/Joe Mauer/Victor Martinez/Mike Napoli

1B. Albert Pujols/Justin Morneau

2B. Chase Utley/Brian Roberts/Howie Kendrick/Aaron Hill

3B. David Wright/Alex Rodriguez/Evan Longoria/Ryan Zimmerman/Placido Polanco/Pedro Alvarez/Chipper Jones/Scott Rolen

SS. Hanley Ramirez/Jose Reyes/Derek Jeter/Rafael Furcal/JJ Hardy

DH. Travis Hafner/Jim Thome

OF. Carl Crawford/Matt Holiday/Josh Hamilton/Shane Victorino/Nelson Cruz/Shin-Soo Choo/Angel Pagan/Delmon Young/Corey Hart/Jason Bay/Jason Heyward/Alfonso Soriano/Grady Sizemore/Vernon Wells/Martin Prado

SP. Adam Wainwright/Jon Lester/Zach Greinke/Josh Johnson/Roy Oswalt/Tommy Hanson/Wandy Rodriguez/Josh Beckett/Jair Jurrjens/Carlos Zambrano/Matt Garza

RP. Jonathan Broxton/Rafael Soriano/Andrew Bailey/Brad Lidge/David Aardsma/JJ Putz/Brandon Lyon

That’s not even close to the full list and it doesn’t include guys with lingering injuries from last year (Joe Nathan, Kendry Morales, Jake Peavy) or guys who have battled injuries while avoiding the DL (Mariano Rivera, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Lee, Jose Bautista). I know that PED’s helped recovery and everything but I have to chalk this up to bad luck. If this is the result of the absence of roids, HGH, and amphetamines then I say once again that we’d have been much better off keeping it all quiet.

Keeping the Peace: I really think the days of true hate filled rivalries and legit bench clearing brawls are over. The stuff that qualifies as a fight or confrontation these days is ridiculous.

Ump Slump Continues: In contrast to the all the love between the players, their relationship with the umps has remained heated, and if anything it’s gotten worse. Right now the umpiring in baseball is simply not up to standards. Even worse, the umpires seem to think that their main duty is not to get the call right and maintain order but to goad players and managers and eject as many as possible.

Tragic Accidents: Without a doubt the low point to the season so far has been the death of the fan in Texas. That’s the worst kind of tragedy because there’s nobody to blame and nothing that can be done to make it better. There was a near-death accident during spring training this year when a foul ball hit by Brian McCann hit minor league coach Luis Salazar in the face, leading to extensive surgery and the eventual loss of his eye.

Riggle Me This: It’s always interesting to me when a guy goes from relative obscurity to fame/infamy due to a single incident. Prior to his ultimatum and subsequent resignation as Nationals manager, Jim Riggleman didn’t have anything to enter in the line “always remembered for” or even “known mainly for.” His description didn’t go any farther than “former manager of…” I actually would have likely always remembered him just as I will probably remember all of the Cubs managers during the 90’s due to WGN. But most sports fans surely wouldn’t have been able to say much about him if asked a month ago, much less 10 or 20 years from now. And then in one bizarre move, Riggleman changed everything. I certainly believe that Riggleman thought long and hard about his decision, and he had to have known that there was a decent chance it would end up back firing. I wonder though if he realized the impact it was going to have on his place in the collective memory of sports fans. If you combined the all the forms of media and guessed how many times his name might be referenced over the next 20 years, he likely multiplied that number by a million or so with his actions on June 23^rd.

Generations Gap: As fascinating as the Riggleman story was, the focus quickly shifted to his replacement as manager of the Nats, along with the replacement for that guy who resigned as manager of the Marlins at about the same time. 68 year old Davey Johnson would fill Riggleman’s seat a few days after his stunning resignation. 68 certainly isn’t ancient, but Johnson hadn’t managed since 2000. 60 may me the new 40 or whatever they say nowadays, but there certainly is still quite a difference between 68 and 80. I mention that because by the time Johnson got the gig in Washington, he seemed like a young buck compared to the Marlins skipper. 80 year old Jack McKeon came out of the retirement home to replace that guy who resigned as the Florida manager. McKeon had last managed in 2005 (also with the Fish). His first year as a manager was 1973. MLB Network had “The Bartman Game” as part of their 20 greatest games series that they did earlier this year, and McKeon came on to discuss the game along with Mike Lowell and former Cubs shortstop Alex Gonzalez. Even with editing, I have to tell you that McKeon seemed old and a bit out of it. I recall thinking how amazing it was that just a few years ago he had been a Major League manager. I don’t really know what this all says about the state of the game today. I don’t really care. I would like to know if Bobby Cox looked at those two hiring’s and thought that maybe he’d gotten out of the game too soon.

Surprise Teams: I know there are always teams picked to finish at the bottom of the standings who end up being surprise contenders, but this year’s surprise teams are out of the ordinary. The Cleveland Indians were almost universally picked to be the worst team in the American League this season. After 45 games they were 30-15 and 7 games up in the AL Central. They’ve cooled off since, but they are still 5 games over .500 and just percentage points out of 1^st. The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the worst franchise in the NL, hands down for nearly 20 years, failing to finish over .500 in a season since 1992. There was no reason to think this would be the year that streak ended. It might not end, but at the moment the Bucks are 4 games over .500 and just a game out of 1^st place in the NL Central. With 72 games to play, the Pirates need just 10 wins to match their total from a year ago.

Bust a Bust: Every season there are big free agent signings or acquisitions who just don’t live up to expectations. This season there have been more than usual. Here are the highlights:

Carl Crawford, Boston (7 years, $142 million): Currently on the DL. Hitting .243/.275/.384/.659 with 8 steals in 12 tries and 9 BB against 46 K. He has made 2 boots and no assists in the outfield.

Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox (4 years, $56 million): Playing almost exclusively as a DH, Dunn is hitting .160/.292/.305/597 with 9 homers and 117 strikeouts.

Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees (3 years, $35 million): Has not pitched since May 13^th. In 16 games Soriano went 1-1 with 1 save and posted a 5.40 ERA and a 1.733 WHIP. He has not exactly handled the New York media well, which is exactly how most of us expected him to handle the New York media.

Jayson Werth, Washington (7 years, $126 million): Still looking like Kenny Loggins, Werth has hit .215/.319/.362/.681 with 10 homers, 45 walks against 87 strikeouts, and 11 steals in 14 tries. He has made 5 assists from right field. Unfortunately he has also committed 6 (yes, 6) errors.

Dan Uggla, Atlanta (5 years, $62 million): Has had the worst first half of any established MLB position player I have ever seen. Hitting .185/.257/.365/.621 with 31 walks against 84 strikeouts and 15 homers. He has made 9 errors at second.

Mid-Summer Bummer: We need to stop kidding ourselves. The All-Star Game is just as much of a joke as the NBA All-Star Game or the NFL Pro Bowl. Instead of talking about what should be done to “fix” the ASG, we should probably just accept it for what it is: a lower tier awards show. A third of the nominees don’t show up and nobody writes an exception speech. The process of picking nominees and winners is confusing. Worst of all: it’s on Fox.

Jeter Hate: Many people have disliked Derek Jeter over the years. It’s not hard to do. He’s been a great player for a hated team for many years. He has dated a different model/celebrity broad every month for the last 15 years. He’s always been somewhat overrated. Plus, the media has spent the last 15 years turning him into a god. But the thing is, many of us who have hated him eventually came to respect him as a player and accept the fact that most of the great things said about him were true. Okay, so he doesn’t have much range. So his numbers aren’t that impressive when compared alongside the greatest to ever play. But he’s been consistently good for 15 years. He’s won 5 titles and has been the most clutch offensive player for the Yanks over that time. And his reputation for being a gamer and a heady player is well deserved. I actually will contend that part of his game is somehow still underrated. No one else comes close in my mind.

I didn’t exactly love the way that Jeter handled the contract negotiations this offseason. It certainly did bother me that he didn’t even show up in Arizona for the All-Star Game. But I think the negative Jeter noise has gotten a little out of hand. The media is relentless, but real baseball fans should be able to get past these small mistakes and look at the big picture.

Mid-Season Awards

AL MVP: Jose Bautista

NL MVP: Matt Kemp

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

AL Rookie of the Year: Mark Trumbo

NL Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman

Most Surprising Team: (Tie) Cleveland Indians and Pittsburgh Pirates

Most Disappointing Team: (Tie) Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers

The Bad Predictions Continue

I’m doing a little better so far this year overall. If the season ended today now I would have 7 of the 8 postseason teams correct. However, 10 teams are on pace to win or lose 14 or more games than I predicted.

Oakland: Predicted Wins: 83. Projected Wins: 69. Margin of Error: 14

Chicago White Sox: Predicted Wins: 92. Projected Wins: 77. Margin of Error: 15

Minnesota: Predicted Wins: 90. Projected Wins: 75. Margin of Error: 15

Houston: Predicted Wins: 70. Projected Wins: 53. Margin of Error: 17

Arizona: Predicted Wins: 68. Projected Wins: 86. Margin of Error: 18

New York Mets: Predicted Wins: 63. Projected Wins: 82. Margin of Error: 19

Los Angeles Dodgers: Predicted Wins: 91. Projected Wins: 72: Margin of Error: 19

Chicago Cubs: Predicted Wins: 85. Projected Wins: 65. Margin of Error: 20

Pittsburgh Pirates: Predicted Wins: 62. Projected Wins: 85. Margin of Error: 23

Cleveland Indians: Predicted Wins: 57. Projected Wins: 86. Margi of Error: 29