The NFL Blog: Conference Championship Round Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (3-1); Straight Up (1-3)
Season: Vs. Spread (127-126-11); Straight Up (165-96-1)

Divisional Round Review: There’s something that doesn’t feel right about going 3-1 ATS and 1-3 straight up. The only game in which I picked the winner correctly was the also the only game that I lost ATS. So going 3 for 4 ATS is nice for making money but in this case it’s pretty hollow. I wasn’t completely wrong about any of the games but I didn’t have any of them completely right either.

Conference Championships Preview: I normally feel like I have a really good idea who is going to win in the conference championships. This year I’m confident about winners and the spread. I’m dangerously close to finishing the season over .500 ATS but I’d also like to pick the winner correctly in the last 3 games of the year. I’m 6-2 in the playoffs so far ATS but I’m only 4-4 straight up!


Sunday’s Late Afternoon Game

Philadelphia (-3) @ Arizona
Pick: Eagles cover.
Comment: You know, I’ve actually really enjoyed this NFL season. I don’t feel like it’s been better than usual but I certainly haven’t felt like this season has been less fun than usual. I know that not everyone shares this opinion and I have to say that this is the first time I can ever remember hearing and reading complaints about an individual NFL season being a “down year.” Anyway, I’ve said all that to say this: for the people who have felt like this season has been a downer, this NFC Championship Game has probably not caused their opinion to sway. I’m actually going to be just as locked into this year’s NFC title game as ever. Usually I’m riveted by the great football, the history, the rivalries, the glory, the heroes, the goats, the drama, the strategy—all of that and everything else. This year’s game may be lacking in many of those things but I’m going to be just as involved as usual. Why? Because I’m going to be rooting strongly for one team, or rather, against one team. I’m going to be pulling like hell for the Cardinals to lose. Just being honest. I’m not going to go into a whole big explanation why. I’m just bitter because I feel like it could/should be the Falcons hosting the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game this weekend. Also I have no respect or regard for their franchise, city, or fans. Yeah, I know it was loud at that stadium during the first round and the crowd noise greatly effected Ryan and the Falcons, I wasn’t impressed. If they hadn’t closed the roof I doubt it would have been that loud in there and really it was the inexperience of Matty Ryan and his inability to change up his cadence that caused the problems. Despite the fact that it was the first home playoff game ever for the Cardinals (at least in Arizona) they needed an extension from the League to avoid a local blackout of that game because it didn’t sell out until the last moment. That’s pathetic. They clinched a home playoff game months ago and I’m not convinced they ever actually sold out the game. They reached the necessary level of capacity to avoid the blackout but I bet it wasn’t a legit sellout. At least the people responded and sold out the NFC Championship in something like 16 minutes. They could have broken the 15 minute mark but a lot of them had to change out of their Cowboys gear first and go buy a Cardinals hat from the store before they could get in the ticket line. In my opinion the Cardinals are the worst franchise in the NFL in terms of history, the fan base, and how the organization is run. So they finally got to the NFC Championship Game. At least they managed to get to a conference title game before the Texans. Only thing is, the Texans have been in the League since 2002, while the Cards had already been around for 50 years when the first conference championship games were held in 1970 (the first year after the AFL-NFL merger). I don’t think they should get to go right on to the Super Bowl or (Darwin forbid!) get to win the Super Bowl. And enough about how nobody respected them and no one thought they had a chance and blah, blah, blah. Of course no one respected them. They only got into the playoffs because they played in one of the worst divisions of all time and that allowed them to get into the playoffs with only 9 wins, 6 of which came over those same crappy teams below them in the NFC West. Then they lay down and allowed themselves to be raped on their home field by Tarvaris Jackson and the Vikings in week 15 and then never even tried the next week in the cold in New England. Why would anyone respect them or give them a shot? Even still, they are in their current position primarily because of the poor play of their opponents, not because they did anything all that special. In the first round Matt Ryan threw 2 balls that any team would have intercepted and then he didn’t vary the snap count and that led to the fluky fumble for a TD in the 2nd half that turned the game around. Then in the last round Jake Delhomme turned in the single worst performance by the QB of a favored team in NFL playoff history. Compared to Delhomme’s performance on Saturday night, Eli Manning’s performance the next day looked like Phil Simms in Super Bowl XXI. I hope the Cards get stomped and humiliated and I hope the fans leave during the 3rd quarter.

It’ll be weird to root that hard for the Eagles. They’ve been one of my least favorite teams for so long. Reid has always annoyed me and McNabb has always rubbed me the wrong way. Plus, they’ve been extremely tough on my team over the years. And I always sort of hope they lose so that John Kincade will be sad. Also, Philly sports fans are pretty hatable, although I definitely have respect for them (as opposed to fickle Phillies fans). But for some strange reason I find myself hoping that the Eagles go ahead and win it all this year so that they can finally have a Super Bowl Championship and the McNabb/Reid era will get its just deserved. But as we know, history warns against assuming anything concerning the Eagles in the NFC Championship. The Eagles won the first NFC Championship Game they played in back in 1980, beating the Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl for the first time. They were utterly dismantled by the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XV (“Intercepted! Rod Martin for the third time today slams the door in the face of the man they call Jaws!”). Remarkably, the Randall Cunningham/Reggie White Eagles that made the playoffs 4 times in 5 seasons never even reached the NFC Championship Game. In 2001, Donovan McNabb led the Eagles into the playoffs for the 2nd year in a row and they reached the NFC Championship Game for the 2nd time in history and the first time since 1980. Unfortunately they were 11 point underdogs on the road against the “Greatest Show on Turf.” The Eagles played the Rams tough but fell short, 29-24. I thought they had it for sure the next year when they hosted the title game against the warm weather Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs had always been a lot of bark and little bite to me. They were notoriously feeble in cold weather and at that point in time the Eagles on Tampa Bay. In the previous 2 years the Bucs had played at Philly in the Wild Card Round and the Eagles had throttled Tony Dungy’s Bucs each time. Jon Gruden was the coach now for Tampa but earlier that season the Eagles had whipped Tampa in Philly again. The Eagles were 4 point favorites but Bucs shocked most of the football world by not only winning by kicking Philly’s ass, 27-10. In 2003 the Eagles again reached the NFC Championship Game with home field advantage and this time they absolutely couldn’t lose. The Carolina Panthers had done the Eagles a favor by upsetting the Rams a week earlier in overtime, taking a game they entered as 7 point dogs. Back in late November the Eagles had won easily over the Panthers in Carolina. Once again the Eagles were favored by 4 points but to me it really seemed more of sure thing than that. I would be left stunned again as the Eagles got shutdown 14-3 to lose in the NFC Championship Game for the 3rd year in a row. In 2005 the Eagles were dominant again in the regular season but when Terrell Owens went down right before the playoffs they looked more vulnerable than in either of the previous 2 seasons. But they wouldn’t need T.O. to get to the Super Bowl because this year their playoff road was just too easy to screw up. First they hosted the 6th seed, 8-8 Vikings and beat them 27-14. They were back in the NFC Title game for the 4th year in a row and this time they really did have it in the bag. They hosted the #2 seed Falcons and it was during that game that I first realized that the Falcons were never going to win a Super Bowl with Michael Vick. It seems obvious now but at the time there was a thought that anything was possible as long as we had Vick. But Vick and Falcons had lost to the Eagles in Philly in the Divisional Playoffs in 2002 and Vick fared no better 2 years later in the Championship Game. The Eagles were favored by 8 and they covered easily, winning 27-10 to reach the Super Bowl for just the 2nd time in the history of the franchise. Finally McNabb’s Eagles had won an NFC Championship Game. They would go on to lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl and things went downhill from there. They are finally back in the conference championship and it’s looking to me like this might be the year they win the whole damn thing. There has definitely been a formula to winning the Super Bowl in recent years. First you need to be a perennial contender that hasn’t yet been able to win it all (at least the latest era of that particular franchise hasn’t been able to win it all yet). During the middle of the season that team needs to struggle and appear obviously flawed, perhaps even on the verge of missing the playoffs. The team is able to make the playoffs but they aren’t being mentioned as a team likely to go far because they aren’t one of the top seeds. Therefore they will have to spend some time on the road and they will have to beat teams that have been better than them all season at their place. The odds of this team winning the Super Bowl seem long even if they do play well because they will have to win 4 games in a row instead of 3, and again, they aren’t going to be at home much, if at all. Yet in each of the last 3 seasons that team has pulled off an improbable run to finally get over the hump. First it was Bettis, Cowher, and the Steelers; then it was Manning, Dungy, and the Colts; then it was the other Manning, Coughlin, and the Giants. Perhaps this year it will be McNabb, Reid, and the Eagles. When it comes to history, the Eagles hold it all in this game because the Cards don’t really have any history other than sucking.

This matchup is yet another rematch from the regular season, only this one will be in the desert. Going into their home game on Thanksgiving night in week 13 the Eagles were in disarray. The hopes for this season seemed shot and you had the feeling that the Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb era in Philly might be coming to an end. In their 3 previous games they had lost at home to the Giants on Sunday night, suffered an embarrassing tie in Cincinnati (after which McNabb claimed he didn’t realize the game would be a tie if the clock ran out in the OT period and no one scored), and then got thrashed in Baltimore (with Reid sending someone to tell D-Mac at halftime that he would be riding the pine the rest of the way). They looked lost and they were now 5-5-1 and well back in the NFC Wild Card standings. Despite this and the fact that Arizona could wrap up the NFC West Division Title with a win, the Eagles were 3 point favorites because everyone knew Arizona’s history away from home, particularly on the east coast. And this one was never close. Arizona didn’t show up for this one either. The first 3 scores of the game were Brian Westbrook TD’s that made it 21-0 Philly midway through the 2nd. It was 24-7 at the half and Westbrook’s 4th TD early in the 3rd quarter made it 31-7. The Eagles led 34-13 heading to the 4th but the Cards scored just 45 seconds into the final period to cut the deficit to 2 TD’s but that was as close as it got. The Eagles scored 2 more TD’s to finish off a 48-20 beat down. The Eagles had 32 first downs in the game, 20 more than the Cards who had only 12. Philly converted 10 of 15 3rd downs while the Cards were just 3 for 10 and 0 for 2 on 4th down. The Eagles outgained Arizona by 177 yards, 437-260. The Cards lost a fumble and Warner threw 3 picks as the Eagles won the turnover battle, 4-1. And the Eagles dominated the time of possession, holding the ball for 19 more minutes than Arizona.

Both teams come into this game riding 3 game win streaks. Arizona is now 11-7 overall and 11-7 ATS. They are 7-2 at home (6-3 ATS at home). The Eagles are 11-6-1 overall and 12-6 ATS. They are just 5-4-1 on the road (6-4 ATS on the road). Philly is 6-1 in their last 7 (and 6-1 ATS in their last 7) and has already won twice on the road in these playoffs. The Eagles had been having good luck with injuries until Brian Westbrook announced this week that he had “tweaked” a knee in the game against New York last week. It appears almost certain that Westbrook will play against Arizona but it’s hard to know how much the injury will affect him. If Westbrook is just able to play the entire game at 75% it will be good enough. McNabb needs to avoid having a terrible game. As long as he doesn’t make too many mistakes I think the Eagles will put up some points on the Arizona defense. I don’t see the Cardinals being able to run the ball against Philly. Surely Kurt Warner and his receivers will make some plays but I think the Eagles defense will get some stops and force some turnovers. Even if Anquan Boldin is 90% or better this Sunday I still think the Eagles secondary will hold its own. I think this will be a close game but I think the Eagles will end up winning by 6 or 7 points.

Sunday’s Early Evening Game

Baltimore (+6) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Ravens beat the spread.
Comment: Obviously this is the best matchup of Championship Sunday. This matchup has more history and more of a rivalry. The Ravens almost fit the pattern of surprise champions that we’ve seen over the last 3 years. Cleary they would have to win 3 road games and they were close to missing the playoffs at one point late in the season. The biggest reason that they don’t fit is pretty obvious: this Ravens team has already won a championship. They would still be a surprise champion if they ended up winning the Super Bowl but they wouldn’t fit the pattern of a team finally getting over the hump when least expected like the Steelers, Colts, or Giants over the last 3 years. Pittsburgh wouldn’t fit the pattern in any way. If the Steelers end up winning the Super Bowl they will be the first #1 or #2 seed to do so since 2004. This generation of Steelers has obviously already won a title as well and so they wouldn’t fit the pattern in either way. But both teams have young coaches who were not in charge the last time their team won a championship.

Baltimore’s history is only 13 years long but they have more history in the postseason than many teams that have been around a lot longer. The Ravens will be playing in the AFC Championship Game for the 2nd time in their history and once again they will be the road team. In 2000, the Ravens beat the Raiders in Oakland in the AFC Championship Game to reach the Super Bowl. They crushed the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV to win their only NFL Championship. This is Baltimore’s 5th appearance in the playoffs, all since 2000, and they are 7-3. The Ravens have gone 6-1 away from home in the playoffs and 5-1 on their opponent’s field. Their only loss away from home in the postseason was at Pittsburgh in the 2001 Divisional Playoffs. That was their first postseason loss after winning the first 5 in team history. They had lost 3 straight going into these playoffs but have won twice on the road to get here. First year coach John Harbaugh and rookie QB Joe Flacco are 2-0 in the postseason in their young careers.

Pittsburgh’s great history is well known. They have played in the AFC Championship Game 12 times and are 6-6. Surprisingly they are only 4-5 at home in the AFC Championship. They are 1-2 in the conference title game this decade, 0-2 at home. They have reached the postseason in both years since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach. The Steelers are 1-1 in the playoffs under Tomlin but have not been to the AFC Championship Game since their Super Bowl winning season of 2005 when they beat Denver on the road in the title game.

Although these two franchises have really been battling for more than a century, the history only goes back to 1996 when the Cleveland Browns became the Baltimore Ravens. The two teams have played twice a season every year since then except for 2001 when they played 3 times. The Steelers hold the lead in the all-time series 17-10, going 16-10 in the regular season and 1-0 in the postseason. Early on in the rivalry the Steelers had an upper hand, going 5-1 against the Ravens from 1996-1998, including 3-0 at home. From 1999-2001 the two teams split the regular season series 3 years in a row, strangely with the visiting teams going 6-0. But in the 2001 Divisional Playoffs, the Steelers beat the defending Super Bowl champions, 27-10, snapping a 3 game losing streak to the Ravens at home. In 2002, the Steelers swept the season series for the first time since 1998. From 2003-2005 the two teams split the season series 3 years in a row, this time with the home teams going 6-0. Then in 2006 the Ravens swept the season series from the Steelers for the first time, snapping a 4 game losing streak in Pittsburgh along the way. Last year each team won at home. This year the Steelers won both meetings, sweeping the season series for the 4th time in 13 years. The Steelers have won 10 of the last 16 in the series and 6 of 7 at home.

This is another rematch from the regular season and this will actually be the 3rd game played between these two teams this year. The Steelers won both games during the regular season but they were both extremely tight, hard hitting, low scoring, down to the wire games. Pittsburgh won at home by 3 points in OT and won in Baltimore by 4 points on a controversial touchdown in the final minute. The first meeting was in week 4 on Monday Night Football with the 2-1 Steelers favored by 6 points over the visiting Ravens. Baltimore had had their week 2 game in Houston canceled due to the hurricane and thus were undefeated at 2-0. The contest was a defensive struggle that was as violent as you would expect. The Steelers were already without Willie Parker going into the game and they would lose backup Rashard Mendenhall early on. Mendenhall’s backup Carey Davis would also be knocked out of the game, as would starting guard Kendall Simmons. The Ravens lost starting RB Willis McGahee for the game late in the 2nd quarter. It would be that type of game. The Steelers scored a FG on their opening possession to take a 3-0 lead but would not score again in the half. Ben Roethlisberger was intercepted at the Pittsburgh 48 on their 2nd drive and the Ravens turned it into a field goal to tie the game at 3-3. Big Ben would be sacked 3 times in the half and the Steelers could do nothing offensively. The Ravens began a drive at the 50 yard line midway through the 2nd quarter and drove for another field goal to take the lead, 6-3. Then with 1:52 remaining in the half the Ravens took over at the Pittsburgh 44 and went on a 6 play drive for a TD to take a 13-3 lead to intermission. The Steelers were still down 13-3 when they took over at their own 33 with 5:49 left in the 3rd quarter. Since scoring a FG on their opening possession, the Steelers had had the ball 7 times and had not achieved a 1st down. They were down to their 4th string running back and without 2 starters on offense. But they would go on a 4 play, 67 yard drive for a TD in just a minute and 40 seconds to get back in the game, down 13-10 with 4:09 left in the 3rd. On the 1st play of the ensuing Baltimore drive, the Steeler defense sacked Flacco, forced him to fumble, and returned the fumble for a TD to take a 17-13 lead. In 15 seconds the Steelers had scored 14 points and now had a 4 point lead with 3:54 to play in the 3rd. Early in the 4th quarter the Steelers had a 1st and goal at the 4 and looked to put the game away. But Pittsburgh had only Mewelde Moore left to give the ball to, and when he was stuffed on 3rd and goal from the 1, the Steelers had to settle for a FG that made it a 7 point lead with 9:19 to play. The Ravens came off the deck with a 9 play, 76 yard drive, tying the game with 4:02 to go. The game stayed tied into OT and the Ravens won the coin flip. They got the ball at their own 15 but could do nothing and had to punt. The Steelers got the ball at their own 43 and went 29 yards in 6 plays to set up a 46 yard FG by Jeff Reed that gave them a 23-20 victory. This was a very even game, with Baltimore outgaining the Steelers by just 6 yards, 243-237, holding a 3 minute edge in time of possession, and both teams turning it over once.

The rematch came months later in week 15. By then the Ravens had established themselves as a legitimate contender and they were 3 point favorites at home. A win by the Ravens would tie the two teams atop the NFC North standings at 10-4. The game turned out to be another hard hitting and low scoring game. Once again the Ravens would be in the lead for much of the game but the Steelers would eke out the victory in the end. Neither offense could do much of anything. Early on the Ravens had the ball at the Steelers 46 but on 2nd and 10 Flacco was picked off at the 33. The game stayed scoreless until the Ravens kicked a FG with 12:30 left in the 2nd quarter to go up 3-0. The Steelers tied the game with 5:44 left in the half. But Flacco led the Ravens on a late drive and Baltimore kicked another FG to go back up 6-3 with just 49 seconds on the clock and Baltimore would take that lead into halftime. Midway through the 3rd quarter the Ravens fell on a fumble at the Pittsburgh 16. The Ravens kicked another FG to make it a 9-3 lead with 6:02 left in the 3rd. The score remained 9-3 going to the 4th but the Steelers were driving as the final period began. They had a 3rd and 1 at the Baltimore 24, but on the first play of the 4th quarter, Big Ben was sacked and fumbled and the Ravens recovered still leading 9-3. It didn’t look good for the Steelers but the defense got the ball back quickly and they got a FG to make it a 9-6 game with 9:26 left. Flacco led the Ravens on a drive then to take some time off the clock, but on 3rd and 8 from the Pittsburgh 27, Flacco was sacked back at the 34 and fumbled the ball. The Ravens recovered it to save possession but they were all the way back at the 41 and would have to punt. Pittsburgh took over at their own 8, down 3, with 3:36 on the clock. For most of the day the Steelers had done nothing offensively, but Big Ben was able to lead a drive deep into Baltimore territory. With 50 seconds left the Steelers had a 3rd and goal at the 4. They were obviously in FG range but they took one more shot at the lead on 3rd down. Roethlisberger threw to Santonio Holmes at the goal line and he made the catch but the ball was placed at the half yard line. The officials reviewed the play, and despite what seemed like less than conclusive evidence, the call was reversed and it was ruled a touchdown. The Steelers went up 13-9 with 43 seconds left on the clock. Had the play stood, the Steelers would have only needed to gain less than a yard to score, but they may have kicked the FG since it was 4th down. The Ravens might have gotten the short end of the stick on the call but they had allowed the Steelers to go 92 yards on 12 plays in just 2:53 so they couldn’t really complain. They actually got the ball back at their own 47 with 40 seconds to try and score. They got a 1st down at the 39 with 25 seconds on the clock and 1 timeout left. But on 2nd and 9 from the 38 with only 17 seconds to play, Flacco threw to the goal line and the Steelers intercepted a yard deep in the end zone to seal the win. In the final stats it was the Steeler defense that proved superior. The Steelers outgained the Ravens 311-202 and had an 18-12 edge in 1st downs. But before that final drive the game was pretty even. Both teams turned it over twice and the Steelers had a 3 minute edge in time of possession. Pittsburgh had 2 sacks and the Ravens had 3.

That controversial win gave the Steelers the AFC North Division Title and it looked like the Ravens might end up on the outside looking in at the playoffs. But Baltimore bounced back, got some help, and made the postseason at the #6 seed. They won 2 games on the road to get here and they enter the game on a serious roll. The Ravens are 13-5 this season, 14-4 ATS. They are 7-3 on the road, 8-2 ATS on the road. They have won 4 straight, 7 of their last 8, and 11 of their last 13. The Steelers are 13-4 this season, just 10-7 ATS. The Steelers are 7-2 at home but just 5-4 ATS at home. Pittsburgh has won 7 of their last 8. While the Ravens may be the hotter team coming into this game, they are not the fresher or healthier team. The Ravens got a bit of a bad break when their week 2 game in Houston was postponed due to the hurricane. That became their bye week and instead of being off in week 10 they had to make up the road game with the Texans. As a result, they will be playing their 18th game in 18 weeks this Sunday. By comparison, the Steelers will be playing their 16th game in the last 18 weeks. The Steelers had a bye in the first round of the playoffs and rested their starters for most of the final game of the year. While Pittsburgh battled injuries throughout the season, they are mostly healthy going into this game. The Ravens, on the other hand, are facing some injuries to go along with the fatigue issues. Both LB Terrell Suggs and CB Samari Rolle suffered injuries in last week’s game with the Titans that they could not return from. Rolle’s hip injury is likely to keep him from playing at all this Sunday. Suggs’ shoulder injury is also serious and if he is able to play this Sunday he will not be anywhere near 100%. Though Baltimore’s defense may be banged up and tired, I still don’t see the Steelers doing much offensively. I think Baltimore’s offense will also be shutdown. It should be a very close, hard hitting, low scoring game again. In such games, the outcome can be affected greatly by a handful of plays. Turnovers, missed opportunities, and penalties will no doubt play as big of a role as always. These variables are hard to predict, and if things bounce Baltimore’s way the Ravens could end up winning this game. But I’m betting on the Steelers winning another close game by 3 or 4 points.