The College Football Blog: Betting Lines Season Review

The Bowls: Vs. Spread (18-15-1); Straight Up (19-15); Moneyline Upsets (3-3)
Season: Vs. Spread (91-110-2); Moneyline Upsets (21-22)

Bowl Season Review: I guess compared to my overall record ATS I did okay ATS in the bowls, going 3 games over .500 as opposed to 19 games under .500 all year. However, I have to say that 19-15 straight up is not very good. I was 3-3 and on moneyline upsets but to divulge a secret, some of those wins were barely upsets. Early in the bowl season I was doing absolutely awful. Through the first 8 games I was just 2-6 ATS and only 3-5 straight up. But then all of the sudden I caught fire, going 8-1 ATS in the next 9 games, and winning 8 in a row straight up. At one point I won 6 straight ATS. I pretty much went .500 the rest of the way. My worst pick was probably Central Michigan to cover the 7 point spread against FAU. They ended up losing by 3. I think my best pick was NC State to beat the 8.5 point spread against Rutgers but Rutgers to win. The Knights won 29-23.

Season Review: Not much to brag about here. I was hovering below .500 for most of the year and then in an effort to get my record even I picked a bunch of games in an “end of the year special” and it backfired, putting me hopelessly under. The way I see it, betting ATS is 50-50 if you just make picks by flipping a coin. There could be a 5% margin of swing one way or the other. So maybe I just had back luck this year. Or maybe I had normal luck and I just didn’t pick games well. Or maybe I actually had great luck and my picks just totally sucked balls. I started the year doing well on moneyline upsets but I got a little carried away and had some really bad weeks that kept me from having a good year. I guess 1 game under isn’t all that bad. But still, I can’t say that these results do anything to enhance my credibility when it comes to being a wise guy. I went 5-5 ATS in the first 4 weeks of the season and then finally got hit with a 2-7-1 in the 5th week. Out of the 13 weeks when I picked 10 games ATS, I went .500 4 times, under .500 6 times, and over .500 just 3 times. The best record I ever had in a week was 7-3 which I did 3 times. I went 3-7 or worse 5 times. Of the 13 weeks when I picked 10 games ATS my worst week was the last when I went just 2-8. That prompted me to pick 24 games ATS the next week and it was that decision that ultimately turned my season from below average to poor, as I went just 6-18. I picked 15 games the next week and went 9-6 and then I was 18-15-1 in the bowl season. So after going 8-26 ATS over 2 weeks I went 27-21-1 in the last week and the bowls to make my record not quite so bad. In moneyline upsets I started the year 8-5 but I got cocky and pulled an 0-5 the next week. I later went 0-4 in another week and during a 5 week stretch I went 2-12 on moneyline upsets. Thankfully I finished the season on an 11-5 run.