The Braves Blog: Explaining the Hitting Woes

What Happened to the Offense?

I’m not breaking any news here when I say that the Braves are struggling at the plate so far in the 2011 season. It’s not like the Braves were some prolific offensive team last season, but they were one of the more patient teams in the NL. They worked the count, wore down pitchers, took walks, and got on base. It was a delightful and surprising development. Out of the blue, the Braves had adopted an AL East style of hitting. I felt this was one of the main reasons that they finally got back to the postseason last year.

This season the team’s approach at the plate has been drastically different. I’m obviously not the first person to point this out. It’s been clear for any fan to see. The shift back in the other direction has been just as dramatic as last year’s improvement.

I wanted to make sure that I wasn’t “misremembering” things and exaggerating, so I dug deep into the stats from last season and this season. The numbers confirmed what my eyes and my memory had been telling me: this year’s offense bears no resemblance to 2010’s offense. Here are some of the key points:

-The 2010 Braves drew an NL high 634 walks (45 more than any other team); they are currently tied for 6^th in the NL in walks and on pace for 531.

-The 2010 Braves struck out 1140 times, 6^th fewest in the NL; they are currently 11^th in strikeouts and on pace for 1182.

-The 2010 Braves led the NL with a .339 team OBP; they are currently 13^th with a .309 team OBP.

-The 2010 Braves finished 4^th in the NL in pitches per plate appearance; they are currently 13^th in that statistic.

-The 2010 Braves led the NL in BB% (percentage of all PA’s that ended in walk) and K/BB; they are currently 9^th and 7^th in those stats respectively.

-Last season, Braves leadoff hitters ranked 4^th in OBP; so far in 2011, Braves #1 batters are 12^th in the NL in OBP.

-Last season, Braves #2 hitters led the NL in OBP; Braves #2 batters are currently 11^th in the NL in OBP.

-Last season, Braves #3 hitters ranked 4^th in the NL in OBP; this season, Braves #3 hitters rank 9^th in the NL in OBP.

There are many, many more examples but you get the idea. The Braves have also not had good luck in BABIP (batting average on balls put in play) this season, and that’s definitely making the numbers look even worse. Still, this team is going to struggle to score runs unless they are putting runners on base consistently.

The homerun numbers are up, but it’s not like the Braves have a ton of power. They have even less base running ability than last season (which seems hard to believe), so manufacturing runs with speed is not really an option. Simply put, the Braves need to get back to doing what they did last year. Otherwise, they just aren’t going to score runs consistently enough to match last year’s success.

It is certainly true that run scoring is down league wide, but the bottom line is that the Braves are averaging 3.92 runs per game this season, after averaging 4.56 runs per game last year. That’s a steep drop off.

What’s puzzling about all of this is that this year’s roster of position players is very similar to last season’s roster. 6 of the 8 everyday position players this year were also regulars last year. The departure of regulars Omar Infante and Troy Glaus--along with Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera, and Rick Ankiel--did not lead many people to expect a major decline in the Atlanta offense this season. So what happened?

Same name, not necessarily the same player. Perhaps the most important thing to realize is that just because you have the same names in the lineup from one year to the next does not mean that you are going to have the same players. I can’t think of a better way to put it than that, but what I mean is that players don’t necessarily maintain the same level of performance or even the same approach at the plate from year to year. The opposition can also affect this, as teams may alter the way they pitch to certain players from one year to the next.

For an example, let’s look at Chipper Jones: the Braves’ #3 hitter and their best hitter in terms of batting eye, patience, and approach. Early last season it seemed that Chipper was really starting to notice his age and the decline of his skills. He didn’t have as much confidence as a hitter. I’m speculating to some extent, but the guy did openly talk about retirement. Eventually he got rolling, but my main point was that last year Chipper seemed to be content to take a walk whenever he had the chance. Actually, there were times where he literally seemed to be “up there looking to get walked.” His ability to get on base consistently in spite of his declining skills was impressive.

In my opinion, Chipper came into this season with a very different approach. Perhaps because he was trying to prove to himself that he could still do it, or perhaps because he really had nothing to lose, Chipper seemed to be much more aggressive than usual early this season. Again, he’s been impressive, driving in runs and even hitting for some power, despite being almost 40 years old and coming off of knee surgery. But he hasn’t been getting on base as often as usual. At the moment, Chipper’s batting average is virtually identical to his average over the previous two years, but his OBP is off 30 points.

Of course we also have to consider opposing pitchers and managers in this case. Let me say up front that I don’t have any advanced statistics to prove my speculations; I simply don’t have the time to find that sort of data at the moment. But it could very well be that pitchers are working Chipper differently this season. Last year it seemed like teams were still pitching to Chipper as if he was the guy who hit over .400 for much of the 2008 season. They were often more than willing to pitch around Chipper and go after Mac or whoever was hitting behind CJ. Perhaps this season pitchers are working to CJ more aggressively and with less fear.

In other words, maybe Chipper is being more aggressive because pitchers are being more aggressive. You may have noticed that he’s been taking a lot of called strikes lately. Maybe he’s having to guess more to make up for his declining bat speed. But it could also be that pitchers are going after him more often. It’s been obvious that his hands and his bat speed have fallen off, so it would only be natural for pitchers to attack him and try and get him out more often than before. Finally, Brian McCann may now be the more feared hitter, and that certainly did not seem to be the case last season. Pitchers may be choosing to throw strikes to Chipper rather than pitch around him and deal with Mac.

Speaking of Mac, let’s look at Brian for our next example. Sometimes hitters seem to change their approach out of the blue. For whatever reason, Mac was a far more patient hitter last year than he had ever been before. During his first 5 seasons, Mac averaged a walk every 11.86 plate appearances. Then last year he all of the sudden drew a career high 74 BB, taking a walk every 7.64 PA. Was he maturing as a hitter? Were teams pitching around him because they didn’t fear Troy Glaus? I don’t know, but whatever the reason, Mac clearly was a more patient batter than ever before last season.

This year he’s back to 10.76 PA per BB. For some reason he hasn’t been the same hitter in terms of getting on base this season. Last year he hit a career low .269, yet his .375 OBP was his best since 2006 (when he hit .333). This year he’s hitting .274, but his OBP is a rather low .339.

Roster changes may be more important than they first appear. As mentioned earlier, there were several key players who the Braves did not bring back this season, but not many people were worried about losing those guys. The Braves were replacing Yunel Escobar with Alex Gonzalez (for a full season), Troy Glaus with Freddy Freeman, and Omar Infante with Dan Uggla. These moves were actually supposed to be upgrades. In the grand scheme of things, it may still turn out that way. But in terms of being a patient lineup, working the count, and getting on base, these were actually fairly major shifts in the opposite direction.

During the second half of 2010 it became blindingly obvious that Troy Glaus was no longer physically capable of being an effective player. The obvious move was to have Freddy Freeman take over as the everyday first baseman this year. While this was clearly the correct (and only) choice, the Braves would be losing something.

Clearly Glaus was finished, but during the first half of 2010 when Glaus was actually healthy enough to play, he was a big part of last year’s patient, AL East like offense. He took pitches, took walks, and worked the count. Freddy, on the other hand, never had a high walk rate in the minors. He’s up there looking to get a hit. He will walk every now and then, but many times he puts the ball in play early in the count. He’s a rookie, and thus slumps and strikeouts are expected, but the point is that substituting Freeman for Glaus meant less pitches, less walks, less OBP, and probably more K’s.

Now look at Escobar/A-Gon. Escobar was an aggressive hitter and he wasn’t helping the OBP much last season when he was with the team. Many times he would come up and hit the first pitch on the ground for an easy out. However, he was also a guy that could fight off pitches and work the count when he wanted to. A-Gon is always aggressive. He brings much more power, but he also brings more strikeouts, and a guaranteed sub-.300 OBP. He’s not going to draw many walks or work the count. Again, I’m not saying the move was wrong, I’m just saying that it did mean less pitches, less walks, less OBP, and more K’s.

Finally let’s look at the Uggla/Infante situation. Omar is an aggressive hitter and did not walk a lot. However, he’s a good contact hitter and when his BABIP is on the fortunate side, his OBP’s going to be high. Uggla obviously brings much more power and he draws a decent number of walks, but he also strikes out a lot. When he’s not going well, he’s going to be a hole. That’s what we’re seeing now obviously. And again, it was still the right move, but at the moment the loss of OBP and the increase in K’s are overshadowing the benefits of more power.

A few more factors. Jason Heyward went through hot and cold stretches last season just like every rookie, but he was always willing to walk, and thus he maintained a very high OBP throughout the year. He hit in the #2 hole virtually the entire season, so the Braves always had a high OBP guy near the top of the lineup. Heyward has drawn plenty of walks this year despite the injuries, but he spent the first month of the season batting 6^th. He started hitting 2^nd again at about the same time that his shoulder started to cause him a lot of trouble. That high OBP in the #2 hole has been missing for most of this season, as Nate McLouth struggled in that spot during the first month. He had finally started to play well on a consistent basis in the last few weeks, making his injury even more frustrating. However, he didn’t start to come around until he was moved back down to the bottom part of the order.

And then there’s Prado. The Braves offense really got going last year when Tino moved to the leadoff spot and he’s spent much of this season batting first. He’s not a prototypical leadoff guy. He’s actually a perfect #2 hitter. He’s an aggressive hitter and he’s not really a walk/get on base guy. He’s a great hitter, so his OBP is usually fine. He hit .307 in each of the previous two seasons and his OBP was over .350 in both of those seasons. His average is starting to climb, but for much of the season he’s been hitting in the mid-.200’s, and thus his OBP has hovered around .300, which is way too low for a leadoff guy.

Another possible explanation. Fans usually tend to think highly of their team, and thus whenever a team is struggling, fans are puzzled, and they often figure that it must be a problem with the coaching. I’ve always felt that this view point was particularly problematic in baseball. I mean how much of an impact do pitching coaches and hitting coaches really have? Over the last few years there were times when fans would be very critical of Terry Pendleton, calling for him to be fired as batting coach. My response was always that they were making way too big of a deal out of a hitting coach.

However, the Braves dramatic shift in approach at the plate this season has me rethinking the issue. I’m not having second thoughts about TP. I think he was fine as our hitting coach. I’m wondering about our current hitting coach. The Braves moved Pendleton to first base coach this season and Larry Parrish took over as hitting coach. I’m wondering if this may be part of the reason for the drastic shift in the team’s approach at the plate. Parrish was not a patient hitter during his playing days, but neither was TP. I have to admit that I have no idea whether Parrish has pushed a more aggressive style on the hitters or not. It could be a total coincidence. But I’m suspicious. And I’m worried that the Braves may never get back to being the type of offensive team that they were last season.