Tuesday, May 10, 2011

The Braves Blog: Early May Entry

I had designs of doing an “After April” blog entry and then an “After May” blog entry and so on throughout the year. But then I realized that the Braves had played their first regular season game in March, so I decided to scrap that idea.

Actually I’m lying a bit. I had planned to create the entry on the final day of April, but that turned out to be a Saturday, and I spent all of said Saturday in an extended napping state. I’ve also been busy working, watching the NBA and Stanley Cup playoffs, and trying to keep up with my 15 (yes, I’m serious) fantasy teams.

So I finally had some time last Tuesday when the game was rained out…or at least I would have had some time if I didn’t have to drag two agoraphobic cats to the vet to get “de-wormed,” and then spend an hour cleaning up a certain male cat’s runny waste that he released upon returning to my apartment complex. Anyhow, let’s change the subject.

This has turned into an “After March, April, and a week or so of May” entry. If you want you can call it a “Through 36 Games” entry. Or you could just say that a sufficient number of games have been played for us to start looking at numbers and trends and thinking of how the season has gone and may go from here on out.

We’re getting close to a quarter of the way through the season. Plus, both the Bravos and the Hawks were off on Monday so I finally had some time to write a full, committed—if rushed as always—Braves Blog entry.


Uncle Fredi

The hiring of Fredi Gonzalez to take the place of Bobby Cox was perfect in so many ways. He knew the team well and was (as far as we know) universally liked by the players and the organization. He was the guy Cox wanted. He was seemingly like Cox in many ways, and yet he was certainly not just a Cox clone or lieutenant. Braves fans seemed to accept Fredi as one of their own. There was so much good faith in the deal. I wondered how long it would take for feelings to change if for some reason things didn’t go well.

Thankfully we don’t yet know the answer to that question. But it didn’t even take two weeks for Braves fans to start questioning Gonzalez and become frustrated with his managerial decisions. I had actually had a feeling that fans who were particularly critical of Cox would automatically be staunch defenders of Fredi. If Gonzalez started to do some of the things that fans used to rail on Bobby Cox for, I figured a lot of fans would overlook or ignore it.

But this theory was shaken when fans became furious with Gonzalez’s early season experiment with Nate McLouth in the 2-hole and Jason Heyward hitting 6th. Gonzalez eventually shook things up, but it was surprising how little patience fans had.

My first “what the hell was he thinking?” moment came in the finale of the Dodgers series, when Gonzalez decided to have Cristhian Martinez pitch to Matt Kemp with first base open in extra innings when he was hitting over .500 on the season.

Overall, I think Fredi has done a fine job as manager so far. For me, what has been most intriguing about Gonzalez’s first 36 games is how obvious the differences between his managing style/theory and Cox’s have been. Some of the changes have been welcome in my opinion. Others I’m not so sure about.


Obvious Managerial Style Differences

-Roster Management: Anyone else feel like roster spots have been bandied about in a much more willy-nilly way than usual so far?

-Less Patience: I’m actually inclined to welcome this change. I would have liked to see Matt Young (and even Jairo Asencio) be given more opportunities before getting sent back down, but I’m glad that Gonzalez does not seem to be afraid to mix things up if they aren’t working (i.e. the lineup). Most importantly, it seems like Fredi has a grasp of the sense of urgency that we really need to have. While this is perhaps not entirely fair, there were times over the last few years when I felt like Bobby was still managing as if the playoffs were a given, rather than as if we had to win every game we possibly could just to have a shot to get in.

-Starters Going Deeper: During the years when the Braves had 3 to 5 aces in their rotation at all times, Mr. Cox was often accused of staying with his starters too long. However, in the final few years Cox was very cautious with his starting pitchers. This has perhaps been the most obvious difference so far between Fredi and Bobby. Gonzalez has given the starters a much longer leash in games when they are encountering trouble, and has allowed starters to work deeper into games when they are rolling.

-Less Caution with Injuries: During the Cox era, whenever an injured or ailing player pronounced himself ready to go, Bobby would invariably reply “give it one more day.” This is probably a decent rule, as competitive athletes often rush to get back on the field/court. But again, the Braves don’t have as much room for caution now as they did when they owned the division and had one of the highest payrolls in baseball.

-Bench Management: Keeping reserves fresh with spot starts every now and then seems to be one of the few things Gonzalez has carried over directly from the Bobby Cox Book. I actually like this strategy, provided that the moves aren’t jarring, and more importantly, provided that the bench player getting the start is not a total misfit. A guy like Eric Hinske can be a big boost to the lineup when inserted. But you don’t want Brandon Hicks or Joe Mather getting too many starts.

One other interesting change, is that Gonzalez has shown little tendency to remove Chipper Jones late in games, whether behind or in the lead. If Chipper goes down with an injury late in an 8-0 game, I’m sure Gonzalez will be hammered. As scared as I am about the potential for a CJ injury, I have to admit that I kind of like this strategy. Chipper is not stupid. He knows when to letup and when it’s worth it to push it.

Outside of that, I think it’s best for him to just play the game. Freak injuries are going to happen to position players whether you try to protect them or not (as we’ve learned with Chipper). While we’ve got him, we need Chipper to be as much like Chipper as he can be. And I believe he’s a better player when he’s not thinking about how old he is or the fact that he could hurt himself at any moment.

-Aggressive Offense: I’ve got some mixed feelings here. There were certainly times where I felt that Bobby did not take enough chances to try and help the offense get a run. Bobby Cox’s teams rarely stole a lot of bases, and the Braves really didn’t even put guys in motion that often.

Now, I’m fully in agreement with those who criticize reckless base stealing. However, I do not go as far as some, who claim that stolen bases don’t matter and that base stealing is basically a bad strategy. Look, I understand that in the grand scheme of things you don’t want to risk an out for the chance of advancing a base. But I have several caveats. If you have an edge (a pitcher with a ridiculously slow move to the plate; a guy behind the plate who simply cannot throw; or a catcher with a mental block) it is often wise to exploit it (see the Braves in the 1999 NLCS against Mike Piazza). If you have a very, very high success rate it can be a useful strategy (think about the Phillies). And finally, if you really, really need to force the issue (Dave Roberts, game 4 of the 2004 ALCS) it can be worth a shot.

With all of this said, I generally didn’t mind Bobby’s stance of almost never sending a runner. For one, this preserved outs. In addition, some batters (Chipper for example) don’t seem to like guys moving around in front of them, or having to worry about giving a guy a chance to steal a bag, or having to protect a runner. During the power era, trying to steal bases seemed reckless, and I actually expected the hit and run to become as rare as the straight steal of home.

But that era came to an end. Sitting back and waiting for the 3-run homer made more sense when the Braves had a lineup of sluggers. At times I felt like Bobby did not adapt to the decline in power throughout the Atlanta lineup.

I loathe the sacrifice bunt by a non-pitcher unless you’re bunting the runner over to 3rd with one out. And sometimes when you’re struggling for runs you have to try and force the issue. With all of this in mind, I was somewhat excited when Gonzalez showed more of a willingness to put men in motion and send guys on straight steals. However, it steadily began to get out of control.

We knew that the Braves didn’t have a lot of speed and we knew that they didn’t have many capable base runners, but even I have to admit to being caught off guard by just how inept the Braves are at stealing bases. In my opinion, under normal circumstances, you shouldn’t be trying to steal bases unless you have a success rate of at least 70%. If you are only making it 6 out of 10 times, it’s not a good idea for you to be trying to steal. It goes way beyond that for the Braves. They probably shouldn’t ever steal unless they’re going up against an absurdly weak catcher.

The Braves are not efficient base stealers. They’re not even inefficient base stealers. If an inefficient base stealer attempted 48 stolen bases, he might make it 30 times and get caught 18 times. He’d be chided as selfish and reckless but at least he’d have 30 SB. The Braves are so bad, it would be like if a guy attempted 48 stolen bases and made it 10 times while getting caught 38 times.

I’m hoping that Gonzalez has started to come to the same conclusion I have: as much as I’d like for the Braves to be more aggressive at times on the bases, they simply aren’t anywhere near good enough. Unfortunately, the Braves just aren’t going to be able to use the SB as a weapon. More on this later.

-The Off the Field Incidents: This doesn’t really have anything to do with Fredi. But I do wonder if Derek Lowe and Roger McDowell would have acted differently if Mr. Cox was still at the helm.

First off, let me say that outside of the distraction element and the negative press, I really wasn’t that upset about either issue. It’s not good to drive drunk. However, it would appear that Lowe got pulled over for racing a flashy car after he had been drinking. He didn’t crash his car into a tree or pass out at a stoplight. If he would have been suspended for the incident then I would have been pretty upset. But again, outside of negative press, it didn’t appear to have any effect on Lowe’s performance or the team.

As for McDowell, I thought it was much (media induced) ado about absolutely zip. The “victim” is obviously looking for money and attention (hence hiring Gloria Fricking Allred). The punishment for the incident was outrageous in my opinion. The fact that he is going to have to go through some kind of sensitivity training and actually apologize personally to this douche is absurd.

I wish the Braves would fight it but it’s probably not worth the PR hit and the attention. McDowell has no choice, as—let’s face it—pitching coaches just aren’t that valuable. My only concern now is that it could limit whatever positive effect McDowell has on the team’s pitchers as far as teaching goes.

Now let’s get back to the original question of whether things would have been any different if Cox were still in charge. For Lowe I would say no. D-Lowe is not the type of player who thinks about his craft and his career 24-7. We have known that all along. I don’t think he did anything differently on this particular night other than get pulled over. During Lowe’s first two years with the Braves, I made the statement on many occasions that there might not be enough pressure in Atlanta for Lowe to be motivated enough to succeed. However, he finished last season very strong and has started off this season pitching just as well. As long as he’s getting the job done on the field, I really don’t care if he parties with his hot blond girlfriend who doesn’t like to wear a bra underneath a tight tee-shirt when she’s walking around the lobby of Piedmont Hospital (just trust me).

McDowell’s situation is another story. I mean, you’d have to imagine that his relationship with Fredi Gonzalez is different in many ways from his relationship with Cox. McDowell was most famous during his playing days for his pranks and his outlandish personality (he was on the 1986 Mets after all). Maybe that side of him was starting to come out a bit more this season. Remember, he replaced perhaps the most famous pitching coach in the history of the world, and he took over the job under a legendary manager. Coming into this year, he had now established himself as the team’s pitching coach and was working under a new, younger, less experienced manager, who was himself replacing a legend. It’s not hard to imagine Roger gradually letting his hair down a bit. But, like I said, as long as it doesn’t negatively affect his ability to help the pitching staff once he returns, I could care less about the whole thing.


Records and Standings

Despite playing some great baseball of late and outscoring opponents by 43 runs on the season (2nd best in the NL, 3rd best in the ML), the Braves are still just 20-16 (.556) overall and in 3rd place in the NL East (4 games back of Philly, 1 game behind the 2nd place Marlins). The Braves have the 5th best record in the NL (4 games back of the Phils) and tied for the 8th best record in the majors (again, 4 games back of Philly). The Braves are a game behind the current NL Wild Card leader (Florida). The Braves have been in 1st place for all of 2 days this season, not since April 1st, and they never had a lead of more than a half game.

The Bravos started off the season 3-1 but then went just 5-11 in their next 16. They were 4 games under .500 on April 21st. The Braves were 6 games out of 1st on April 30th. However, they’ve gone 12-4 in their last 16 and are a season high 4 games over .500. They won 6 straight from May 1st through the 6th, and they’ve had only one 3-game losing skid all season (April 5th through the 7th). The Braves are 6-5 in series.

The Braves went 1-0 in March but then had just a 12-15 record in April, despite outscoring opponents by 17 runs during the month. They are 7-1 so far in May. The Bravos are 9-7 in Atlanta and 11-9 on the road. They’ve gone 8-7 against division foes, 8-7 against teams at or above .500, and 12-9 against teams below .500. They are 6-3 in shutouts and 8-2 in games decided by 5 runs or more. However, they are just 1-3 in extra inning games and 3-5 in 1-run games.

The Braves last 5 losses have come by a total of 10 runs and never more than 3 runs in a game. Of those last 5 losses, 3 have come in extra innings and a fourth was by 1 run. Based on their excellent run differential, the Braves record should be 23-13.


Attendance

Despite a great deal of effort by the franchise (both on the field and off of it), the Braves seem to be losing the battle in their fight to raise attendance. In fact, they’re having a hard time maintaining attendance levels at the moment.

The Braves reached the playoffs last year for the first time since 2005; they have a very likeable roster of players; and they have several exciting young players, some of whom have local ties. And yet, attendance at Turner Field, particularly among neutral/hometown fans appears to be declining further still.

The Braves are currently 11th out of 16 NL teams in average attendance, drawing 24,190 a game. Obviously it’s still early, and perhaps no team experiences a bigger boost from school letting out for summer than the Braves, but at this point Turner Field attendance is well off of last year’s rather disappointing 29,013 a game.

These poor numbers have come despite opening the home season against the Phillies, and getting early season visits by the Mets and Cardinals. On the other hand, one of the other home series was against the Marlins, and the Braves have played a pair of true double headers at home, with only one total gate number going towards attendance. In other words, the Braves have two zeros going against their average per game attendance. While that might make the Braves and their supporters feel better, the fact that they only managed to draw 15,000 to last Wednesday’s double header with the Brewers is somewhat disturbing.

The Braves have drawn fairly well when playing the Phillies, Cardinals, and Mets. The problem is that those are three teams who always have a significant number of their own fans in attendance. The Brewers and Marlins don’t have any of their own fans in attendance. For those games the Braves have drawn record lows, including the smallest crowd in Turner Field history on April 12th.


Offense (Season Grade: C)

The Braves offensive struggles have been somewhat of a surprise to me. I did not think we would have the top offense in the game, but I thought we had a very good chance to be as good as last season, and maybe better. Instead, the Braves have regressed significantly. It’s not only that the numbers are down; the Braves aren’t doing the things that made them successful last year, particularly during the first half or so before the injuries took a toll.

Last season the Braves thrived on working the count, getting on base, wearing down pitchers, and turning the lineup over. The Braves haven’t been doing any of those things this season. Last year the Braves were at or near the top of the NL in BB and OBP from wire to wire. The Braves have been at the very bottom of the league in OBP this season and have not been getting their walks on a consistent basis.

If not for timely homeruns and a fortunate knack for hitting with runners in scoring position, the Braves might be in a big hole. They’ve had few opportunities and have suffered through extended periods of anemia.

The Bravos are just 9th in the NL in runs per game (still above average). They are just 8th in the NL in walks (above average) and tied 11th in fewest strikeouts (below average). They are 11th in average, 13th in OBP, 8th in Slugging, and 10th in OPS. The Braves have been saved by the long ball, as they are 3rd in homers.

Last season the Braves worked the count, got on base, moved runners up and over, and rarely had quick and easy innings when they were healthy. This hasn’t been the case so far in 2011. They are 9th in pitches per plate appearance (still above average) and 15th in “Productive Out Percentage” (moving any runner with first out or scoring runner with second out or sac bunt by pitcher). They are tied 5th in sac hits and 6th in sac hit success rate, but they are just 15th in sac flies.

The Braves just don’t seem to be focusing enough on trying to get on base. Consider that they are 13th/15th/10th/12th (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) in the NL with the bases empty, yet they have the 5th best batting average in the NL with runners on. The Braves have been super clutch this season when they have had opportunities. They are 1st in the NL in average, OBP, Slugging, and OPS with RISP. They have the 2nd best average with RISP and 2 out. You can obviously look at this in a positive light: they’ve been clutch. But on the other hand, you have to wonder if they can keep that sort of “clutch” hitting going.

We’ve already discussed this but it’s worth mentioning again how awful the Braves have been in the stolen base department. As a team, the Braves are just 6 for 17 (Uggghhhhh) in SB attempts for a hideous 35.29% success rate. They are last in the NL in SB (1 behind the Cubs) and easily worst in SB% (the next worst team has a 56% success rate).

But the Braves lack of base running prowess extends beyond stolen bases. They are tied 12th in the NL in infield hits, tied for last in bunt hits, 13th in fewest double plays, and tied 9th in fewest ground ball double plays. The Braves are also dead last in “Bases Taken” (bases advanced on fly balls, wild pitches, passed balls, balks, and defensive indifference). On the other hand, the Braves are 2nd in “Extra Bases Taken Percentage” (percentage of times a runner advanced more than 1 base on a single or more than 2 bases on a double).

One seemingly random number is that the Braves are dead last in the NL in HBP with only 4 all season. This could be random, or it could at least in some way speak to not working the count. They are tied 8th in IBB. One number that can give us hope is that the Braves are 12th in the NL in BIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), meaning they are hitting into some bad luck. However, this certainly has to do with speed as well (beating out grounders for hits can make a big difference).

One thing that hasn’t been a surprise is the struggles the Braves have had against left handed pitching. The Braves lineup is heavily left handed and they just aren’t going to be as formidable against southpaws. But hopefully they can improve on the results so far, as they are 14th/16th/14th/14th in the NL against left handed pitching. Contrary wise, they are 8th/6th/4th/3rd against righties; pretty solid.

No one expected the Braves bench to be a strength either this season, as they had only 5 bench players make the opening day roster, two of whom were fringe players/career minor leaguers (neither of whom is still on the MLB roster). Again, however, they should be better than they have been so far. Erik Hinske and David Ross have gotten it going, but overall Braves pinch hitters are 11th in average and 11th in OBP.


Pitching (Starting Pitching Grade: A; Bullpen Grade: B+; Overall Grade: A-)

I’m being a bit of a tough grader. If the Braves pitching had been anything less than brilliant so far they would be below .500. If the Braves hitters had been a little bit better they could be winning the division.

The Bravos lead the NL in runs allowed per game, ERA, WHIP, and BB/9. Atlanta pitchers are tied 3rd in complete games, tied 2nd in complete game shutouts, and tied 1st in team shutouts. The Braves are 2nd in H/9, HR/9, and K to BB. Braves pitchers are tied 8th in saves and 6th in K/9.

The Atlanta pitching staff ranks 2nd in batting average against, 1st in OBP against, 2nd in Slugging against, and 1st in OPS against. Braves pitchers are tied 1st in GDP induced, tied 4th in fewest runs on errors allowed, and tied 14th in IBB. Braves pitchers rank 14th in BIP against, so perhaps they will be unable to sustain these lofty numbers, but that number has a lot to do with good defense as well. Plus, you can hedge bets based on BIP all you want, but the Braves have several pitchers who have proven capable of consistently getting ground ball outs and not being overly reliant on K’s.

The Braves starting rotation has been stellar. Braves starters lead the NL in ERA and are 2nd in QS% and innings per start. All of those innings haven’t kept the Braves from relying heavily on the pen (or at least a few relievers). Still, Atlanta relievers are 3rd in ERA and 1st in inherited runners stranded percentage. The pen hasn’t been perfect. The Braves are 13th in blown saves and just 11th in save percentage. Also, Braves relievers are tied for the 5th most appearances in the NL, and their top 3 relievers have shouldered the majority of the burden.


Fielding (Season Grade: A-)

The Braves have arguably been the best fielding team in the NL this season. After all of the struggles late last season and the sloppy play late in spring training, I did not see this coming. They are 2nd in defensive efficiency, tied 2nd in fewest errors, tied 1st in double plays, and 1st in fielding percentage. They have allowed a league few 4 unearned runs.

Braves catchers haven’t been the best backstops this season, as they are tied 13th in fewest passed balls and 12th in fewest wild pitches. However, Braves catchers have been excellent against opposing base stealers. They currently rank 2nd in the NL in CS% and tied for 3rd in fewest SB allowed.

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