It took until the final day of the regular season but the playoffs are finally set. Playoff basketball is finally here and it’s going to stay for a while. That’s both good and bad. It’s good because there will be at least one NBA game that matters every day for the next two months. The bad part is that the games are so spread out you may forget that the playoffs are even going on at least once or twice during the next two months. Half of the 8 first round series begin on this Saturday, the 18th of April, and the other 4 start the next day, the 19th of April. The quickest date on which any of these series can be wrapped up is the following Saturday, April 25th. Even if the Atlanta-Miami or New Orleans-Denver series turns out to be a 4 game sweep the series will not end until Monday, April 27th. If any series happens to go to a game 7 the earliest that the first round of play will end is Saturday, May 2nd. The Cleveland-Detroit series begins on this Saturday and if it ends up going 7 games it will end 15 days later on Sunday, May 3rd. And remember, this is just round 1.
It seems a little drawn out but I’m not going to complain too much about playoff basketball being extended into summer time. I was excited to do my predictions but when I got done there was something fundamentally unexciting about them. What I realized was that I hadn’t picked any upsets; not a single one. I tried to figure out why this happened and I’ve come up with a theory. This year’s playoffs are made up of 2 types of match-ups. In some cases one team is so obviously better than the other that it simply wouldn’t make any sense to predict an upset and I don’t see any shockers coming this year so I didn’t predict any. In the other match-ups the two teams are so evenly matched that there’s really no favorite and in these instances I just went with the team that has home court advantage. So I guess what I’m saying is that all of the series were either too one-sided or too evenly matched for me to predict an upset. Anyway, here is a preview of the playoffs along with my predictions and below that are my picks for this year’s regular season award winners.
Eastern Conference
I didn’t pick any upsets in the first round in the East and I really don’t think any of the series will be all that tight. Because of what the Pistons have been during this decade there is a tendency to look at them and think they are dangerous or at least capable of putting up a fight. But that outlook is not based in rational thought. I don’t know how that team finished 4 games under .500 but the fact is that they did and good teams don’t finish 4 games under .500. I can understand how the Pistons didn’t match last season’s 59 win regular season. It’s pretty obvious what happened. A number of key players lost time with injuries and they traded away Chauncey Billups after only 2 games. Allen Iverson brought nothing to the team to replace Billups; in fact his presence has had a negative effect. They actually started the season 4-0 and have been 8 games under .500 in their last 78 games. Since a 21-11 start they have gone 18-32 and they are 6-12 in their last 18 games. They are done. I don’t think they’ll win a game against Cleveland. I’ve heard some people talking about how the Bulls are a bad match up for the Celtics in a way that the Hawks were last season. It seemed pretty clear on Wednesday that the Bulls themselves wanted to stay in the #7 spot when they lost by 21 to the Raptors at home. Either way, I’m not buying this theory that the Bulls can give the Celtics a scare, I don’t care if Garnett misses the whole series. I think the Bulls may put up a fight but the Celtics will never be in serious jeopardy of losing the series. Last year the C’s went 7 games against the Hawks and were never really in danger of losing the series. I could see the Bulls winning a couple games because they are hot, having won 12 of 16 and 5 of their last 6, and they are 28-13 at home. However, they have zero chance of actually winning the series, as they are 13-28 on the road. Some people think the Sixers will give the Magic trouble but I don’t see it. I was starting to see the Sixers as a possible “team nobody wants to play in the playoffs” a few weeks ago when they had won 10 of 14. But then they finished up losing 6 of 7 and needed overtime just to beat Cleveland’s bench in the last game of the season. The Magic struggled a bit in the last few weeks, ending the year just 4-5 in their last 9, but I’m not worried. I became a believer in the existence of “nightmare match-ups” a couple of years ago when the Mavs lost to the Warriors in the first round. With this in mind, I thought if the Pistons ended up playing the Magic in the first round it could be intriguing because they were 3-0 against Orlando this season. But Orlando is 3-0 against Philly this year. I think they’ll cruise. The difference between the top 3 teams in the East and the rest of the conference is huge. The only series that seems at all close is the Atlanta-Miami match up. This should be a fairly tight series and it will be interesting to see if Dwyane Wade can will the Heat into the second round. Wade is amazing and the Heat have gotten better as the year has gone on but I don’t think it will be enough to win the series. The Hawks have won 3 of 4 games against Miami this year and they are 31-10 at home. I could see Miami winning this series because they have Wade and because the Hawks haven’t won a playoff series in over a decade but I don’t think it will happen. I don’t even think the series will go 7.
If the Hawks do get by Miami they have no chance against Cleveland. The Cavs would likely be able to steal one of the games in Atlanta and the Hawks wouldn’t win a game in Cleveland. A Boston-Orlando series could be really good. Both teams play good defense and both teams can win on the road. They are evenly matched but I have to give Boston the edge for a few reasons. The Celtics have the home court advantage and experience. And I still don’t think the Magic are as good as they were with Jameer Nelson. What’s making my decision a little harder is that right in the middle of writing this news came out that Garnett may not be able to play at all in the playoffs. Obviously this makes me rethink things but I don’t think I’m going to change anything. First off, I’m just not convinced that KG is going to be out for the entire playoffs. There’s nothing structurally wrong with his knee that doctors have been able to zero in on so I don’t know why it wouldn’t get better with rest. And the spacing of the playoffs is such that game 3 of a potential Celtics-Magic series could be 3 weeks from now. I have to think the situation could be different by then. I still like the Celtics to beat Orlando.
During the first part of the year I thought the Celtics were probably going to repeat as NBA champs. They were basically the same team as the year before, their chief competition (the Lakers) were basically the same team as the year before, and the Celtics appeared to be just as hungry as they were the year before so I couldn’t think of a reason why they wouldn’t repeat. Then after the loss to LA on Christmas they seemed to lose their focus. I started thinking that they might not repeat after all. It wasn’t the loss to the Lakers that had me changing my mind; it was really the 2-7 stretch that they went on beginning with that loss. I still thought they would probably win the East and when they won 12 in a row following that downturn I was as certain as before that they were the favorite to at least win the East. But then they went 9-9 following that 12 game win streak. Even as they won 12 of their final 14 over the last few weeks, Kevin Garnett’s health has become more and more of a concern for me. While all of this has been going on with the Celtics, the Cavaliers have been winning me over. I was totally wrong about them this year. I thought they’d be a decent but not great team. They turned out to be the best team in the NBA during this regular season. They caught the Celtics and then pulled away from them in the race for the top seed in the East. Over that time I came to believe that they would probably beat the C’s, especially if they home court advantage which they do, and Garnett’s injuries have only made me more certain. I would be surprised if the Cavs failed to win the East.
Western Conference
The West is obviously a lot tighter than the East, mostly because the West is just better. Early in the year a lot of people were saying that the East was much better than it had been in recent years and that the gap between the two conferences had been closed. That’s probably true but only in that the top of the East was very good this season and the bottom of the West was awful. As far as the top 8 or 10 teams in each conference are concerned, the West is still better by a mile. This is nothing new of course. Last season the teams that finished 9th, 10, and 11th in the Western Conference playoff standings would have made the playoffs if they were in the East. And remember, you play your own conference more than the other conference, so these teams had better records against better competition. Last year the Warriors went 48-34 and missed the playoffs despite being 11 games better than the #8 seed in the East. They would have been the #4 seed in the East but instead they stayed home. Portland was in 10th in the West last year at 41-41. They were 4 games better than the 8th place team in the East (Atlanta) and would have been either the 6th or 7th best place team in the East. The Kings were 11th in the West at 38-44 but even they would have made the playoffs ahead of the Hawks if they had been in the East. This season it isn’t quite as bad, as only one team from the West would have made the playoffs by switching to the East. This year it’s Phoenix that gets the shaft. The Suns finished 46-36 with is 7 games better than the #8 seed in the East (Detroit) and they would be the 5th place team in the standings if they were in the East.
Just because the West has more good teams doesn’t mean the Western Conference playoffs will be any more competitive than the East. Last year the race for playoff position in the West was the best in history, as the top 8 teams all won between 50 and 57 games. I was so fired up for the Western Conference playoffs but they were a complete dud. No first round series went 7 games and only one of the four series went past 5 games. The higher seed won all four first round series. Only one of the two semifinal series went 7 games and the conference finals ended in 5 games. The only upset in the Western Conference playoffs wasn’t much of an upset, as the 56-25 Spurs beat the 56-25 Hornets. This year the top 8 teams in the West have won between 48 and 65 games so things are a lot more spread out compared to last season. Early on decided that the Lakers and Spurs were the only teams that could win the West and when Manu Ginobili was announced out for the year a few weeks ago it clinched it for the Lakers. I doubt they’ll be challenged. Utah was a little disappointing early, then put it together in the middle of the season to win 15 of 16, but they finished the year just 7-11 in their final 18, losing 7 of their last 9 games. They are great at home as always so they may get a couple games off of the Lakers but they’re 15-26 on the road so they’ve got no shot to win the series. Denver is the only one of the top 2 seeds in either conference that I could see possibly losing in the first round. They aren’t a great defensive team and they are going up against one of the best defensive teams in the Association. Denver hasn’t gotten out of the first round lately, something the Hornets did last year. This is a big series for Carmelo. He’s got Chauncey Billups now and that’s the biggest reason they won 54 games this season and one of the main reasons I think they’ll get past New Orleans. Another thing is that they are very tough to beat at home, while the Hornets home court advantage is not particularly great. Chris Paul is one of the top players in the game and other than that the Hornets are really ordinary. They got off to a bit of a staggering start this season, then they tried to deal away one of their top 3 players only to have the deal negated. The team rallied to a 28-14 record about halfway through but they’ve been just 21-19 since, including 2-6 in their final 8 games. The Nuggets come into the playoffs having won 14 of their last 17 and I think they’ll survive the first round. The San Antonio-Dallas series is one of the few first round series that I think a lower seeded team could win. This would be a surprise because the Spurs are always tough in the playoffs and Dallas has been a playoff disaster ever since game 4 of the 2005-2006 NBA Finals. However, the Spurs are going to be without Manu Ginobili and they’ve been fairly average over the last 19 games, going 11-8. They’re 21-14 over their last 35 games and they don’t have an overpowering home court advantage. On the other hand, they do have Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Gregg Popovich and a bunch of guys who know how to win. That last thing is something I’m not sure the Mavs have. Dallas is 48-25 since their 2-7 start but they’re only 10-7 in their last 17 games. They’re 32-9 at home but 5 games under .500 on the road. I think this series could be closer than expected but the Spurs should win. Defense is key this time of year and the Spurs are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA as usual, while the Mavs are a bit weak on the defensive end like they normally are. The Portland-Houston series is the toughest first round match up to call in my opinion. They are separated by just 1 game in the standings and they’ve go identical road records. The Blazers are inexperienced, making their first trip to the playoffs in years, while the Rockets haven’t won a playoff series in years. Portland is 10-1 in their last 11 going into the playoffs while the Rockets have cooled off a bit, going 6-4 in their last 10. I have to go with Portland because of the home court edge but it should be a 7 game series.
If the Blazers do get out of the first round I think they might be able to win a game or two against the Lakers at home but I think LA would get by them without much trouble. A Nuggets-Spurs series would be interesting. The Spurs are an aging team and they’ll be going without Ginobili. I think there season will end short of the conference finals this year. By the time of the conference finals I think the Lakers will be in a groove. Regardless of opponent, I would expect them to win handedly and get back to the NBA Finals.
Finals: Cavs vs. Lakers
Early in the season it seemed very likely that the finals would be a rematch of last year’s Boston-LA battle that did not live up to the hype. But during the last few months it has become more and more clear that the finals match up we are most likely looking at is a LeBron vs. Kobe, Cleveland vs. LA series. Of all the series I picked—either the first round match-ups or the later rounds that I projected—I had the hardest time picking a winner for this one. I have felt more and more over the last few weeks that LeBron was going to lead the Cavs to the championship this year. I think having the home court edge is a big deal for Cleveland. They’ve lost only 2 games at home all season and one of those was the final game of the year when they really didn’t try to win (even still they only lost in OT). For the Lakers to win they will have to do one of two things, both of which seem fairly unlikely. They either have to win 2 games in Cleveland--which would equal the total number of games the Cavs have lost at home all season—or they’d have to win a game in Cleveland and beat the Cavs in 3 consecutive games—which would be a longer losing streak than the Cavs had all season. There’s no doubt that the Lakers are a better team than they were last year but it will be tough for them to beat James and the Cavs, especially without the home court edge. I really don’t know have a strong feeling about this one but I’ll go with the Lakers to win it based on the fact that they beat the Cavs in both of their head to head meetings this season, including the only real loss the Cavs had in Cleveland.
Predictions
Eastern Conference
First Round
#1 Cleveland over #8 Detroit (4-0)
#2 Boston over #7 Chicago (4-2)
#3 Orlando over #6 Philadelphia (4-1)
#4 Atlanta over #5 Miami (4-2)
Conference Semifinals
#1 Cleveland over #4 Atlanta (4-1)
#2 Boston over #3 Orlando (4-3)
Conference Finals
#1 Cleveland over #2 Boston (4-2)
Western Conference
First Round
#1 Los Angeles Lakers over #8 Utah (4-2)
#2 Denver over #7 New Orleans (4-2)
#3 San Antonio over #6 Dallas (4-3)
#4 Portland over #5 Houston (4-3)
Conference Semifinals
#1 Los Angeles Lakers over #4 Portland (4-2)
#2 Denver over #3 San Antonio (4-2)
Conference Finals
#1 Los Angeles Lakers over #2 Denver (4-1)
NBA Finals
#1 Los Angeles Lakers over #1 Cleveland (4-3)
NBA 2008-2009 Awards
MVP
1. LeBron James
2. Dwyane Wade
3. Dwight Howard
4. Chris Paul
5. Kobe Bryant
6. Tim Duncan
Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard
Rookie of the Year: Derrick Rose
Coach of the Year: Rick Adelman
Sixth Man of the Year: Jason Terry
All-NBA First Team
G Chris Paul
G Dwyane Wade
F LeBron James
F Tim Duncan
C Dwight Howard
Ranking every World Series in MLB history
-
Scandals, scapegoats, superstars and, yes, the Yankees. Sam Miller judges
every October since 1903.
3 years ago
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