The Hawks Blog: State of the Team at the All-Star Break

In this blog let’s take a closer look at the Hawks record through 52 games and the statistics they have put up.

The Hawks are currently 10 games over .500 with an overall record of 31-21 (.596) in 52 games, and that record is tied for 10th out of 30 teams in the NBA. They are in 2nd place in the Southeast Division, 7.5 games back of the Orlando Magic and 3 games ahead of the 3rd place Miami Heat. The Hawks have the best record out of any team not leading its division in the Eastern Conference and that puts them in the 4th spot in the playoff race, again 7.5 back from the 3rd spot occupied by Orlando, and 3 games in front of the 5th place Miami Heat. The Hawks have normally done a good job taking care of business at home this season, going 19-6 so far at Phillips Arena, tied for the 8th best home record in the NBA this year. The Hawks are just 12-15 on the road which is tied for the 13th best road record in the Association, but they are a whole lot better than they used to be away from home. 12-15 is really not that bad and the Hawks won just 12 road games all of last season. The Hawks have gone 22-14 in 36 games against the Eastern Conference, which has 3 great teams and barely anything else above mediocrity. Still, the Hawks are a solid 9-7 against the deeper West. The Hawks have gone 8-3 against fellow Southeast Division teams. In their 52 games, the Hawks have averaged 98.9 points per game (tied for 16th in the NBA) and have given up an average of 97.0 points a night (12th in the NBA) for a scoring differential of +1.8 (11th in the NBA).

One thing to keep in mind is the schedule the Hawks have played. Going into this season it looked like the Hawks schedule was extremely daunting early on. It turned out to be somewhat less daunting because some teams in the East like the Sixers, Pistons, Wizards, and Raptors have all taken steps back or completely fallen apart. The Hawks have gotten a lot of wins against struggling teams. Now, that’s nothing at all to be ashamed of, in fact the first thing a team that wants to be great must do is beat the teams that they are supposed to beat. As far as winning percentage goes, the Hawks’ schedule has been the 29th most difficult in the Association--or in other words, the 2nd easiest--with their opponents’ winning percentage being just .480. But again, there’s nothing wrong with cleaning up at home and wiping out the weaklings on your schedule. The Hawks started out well against winning competition this year but they are now just 9-12 against teams over .500. They are 22-9 against teams below .500. We’ve faired better in games that were less competitive, perhaps because of the free throw difficulties. The Hawks are 19-14 in games decided by 9 points or less, including 13-10 in games decided by 5 points or less. The Hawks are 12-7 in games decided by double digits, including 7-5 in games decided by at least 15 points. The Hawks are 0-1 in their only overtime game. The Hawks managed to avoid having a lot of really bad losses in the “first half” of the season, suffering only 2 home losses to teams with losing records and 2 road losses to teams in the bottom 8 of the NBA. The Hawks managed to go 3-2 at home against teams with better records and they pulled off 4 road wins over teams with winning records.

The Hawks schedule should be harder in the 2nd half. In some ways the final 30 games don’t look that bad. They have more home games than road games left and more games against the East than against the West. However, of the 30 games left on Atlanta’s schedule, 19 are against teams with winning records; 13 are against teams with as good as or better records than the Hawks; and 7 are against the teams with the 4 best records in the NBA (Orlando, Boston, Los Angeles Lakers, Cleveland). The Hawks have only 4 games left against the teams with the 5 worst records in the NBA.

But if we’re going to say that the Hawks schedule might get harder in the 2nd half, I think (hope) we will also see a much rosier picture of team health. Once again the Hawks have had to try to cope without key guys for a few games and they’ve done it without much depth. The Hawks went 6-6 when Josh Smith was out; 6-8 when Al Horford was out; 4-0 without Marvin Williams; 1-3 without Zaza Pachulia; 2-0 without Joe Johnson; and 0-1 without Mike Bibby. In the 20 games the Hawks played with their top 8 players (Johnson, Bibby, Smith, Williams, Horford, Pachulia, Murray, Evans) they went 16-4.

The Hawks won their first game of the season and they’ve been over .500 ever since. In fact, the Hawks have been at least 2 games over .500 ever since starting the year 2-0. The most games over .500 the Hawks have been is 11 which they last were at 22-11. The Hawks have won 3 games or more in a row 5 different times and they’ve lost 3 games or more in a row 4 times so far. The Hawks’ longest win streak during the first half was 6 games which they did twice; their longest losing streak was 4 games which they also did twice.

This should end up being the Hawks best season in 10 years. If the Hawks went 1-29 the rest of the way to finish 32-50 it would still be their 4th best record in the last 10 seasons. If they went only 5-25 the rest of the way to finish 36-46 it would be their 2nd best record in the last 10 years. If they went only 7-23 the rest of the way to finish 38-44 it would still top last year’s record of 37-45 and would be their best season in the last 10 years. The Hawks need to go 10-20 the rest of the way to finish 41-41 and snap the 9 year losing season streak. The Hawks need to go 11-19 the rest of the way to finish 42-40 for their first winning season since 1998-99, and the first in a full season since 1997-98. If the Hawks go just 14-16 the rest of the way they’ll still finish 45-37. If the Hawks are able to go 16-14 the rest of the way they’ll finish 47-35 which would be their 4th best record of the last 20 years. They need to go 19-11 the rest of the way to finish 50-32 for their 4th 50 win season in their last 20 years.

The Hawks’ numbers as a team don’t really blow you away. They’ve basically relied on taking care of the ball, shooting 3’s, and playing solid defense. The Hawks are 13th in FG% and 13th in Opponents FG%. The Hawks are 11th in 3-pt% and 13th in Assists. They are just 23rd in Rebounding and 19th in Blocks but they’re 13th in Steals, 5th in Turnovers, 6th in Turnover Differential, and 4th in Assists/Turnover Ratio. The Hawks biggest weakness is their free throw shooting, as they are 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in that department.