The College Basketball Blog: Non-BCS Bowl--er, I Mean NIT, CBI, and CIT Predictions

Postseason Tourney's Gone Wild!!!

You may not know it but the NCAA Tournament isn't the only postseason tournament going on this March. As always, the National Invitational Tournament, commonly referred to as the NIT (or the "Not in the Tournament" tournament) will be taking place at around the same time as the big tournament, its games taking places during the March’s quiet days, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. But the NIT is not the only “consolation tournament” being played in March these days. Last year the College Basketball Invitational or CBI was created as a 3rd postseason tournament. It was the first time a tournament other than the NCAA and NIT was played since the Collegiate Commissioners Association Tournament in 1975. This year yet another postseason tournament has been formed, this one’s title has a December Bowl feel to it. The CollegeInsider.com Tournament or CIT will compete with the NIT and the CBI for the dead air in March. There are a lot of teams out there in Division I and a whole bunch of them are still playing. Indeed, there are enough teams involved in postseason play this season for us to have a pair of 64-team tournaments if we wanted.

It’s getting silly. I mean both of the major college sports in this country—basketball and football—are played within idiotic systems. People spend all winter complaining about how there is no playoff in college football, all the while not paying any attention to anything going on in the sport of college basketball. Unless you are a serious college basketball fan or are a fan of a “basketball school” (UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, etc.) the college basketball season really doesn’t even begin until some time in mid to late February. So much emphasis is put on how a team finishes that it barley matters what a team does during the winter. I know the committee tried hard to convince us otherwise this year but honestly, how much would I really have missed out on this season if I slept through the month of December? The places that this is the worst are in the mid major and small major conferences. In the vast majority of these conferences a team will not receive an at-large bid to the tournament and therefore must win their conference tournament. True, this does bring relevance to the America East Conference Tournament Final during Championship Week, but also seems to render the previous 8 weeks irrelevant. Yes, the teams are playing the conference season for pride and they care whether they win or lose just as I cared about 7th grade football when there were only 3 teams on my schedule and there were no playoffs. But the rest of us don’t have any reason to care. And a lot of the time the best team from a certain conference doesn’t end up representing that conference in the Big Dance. I’m not really saying there’s a way to fix all of this because clearly taking away the automatic bids awarded to tournament champions would erase 2 weeks of drama. I’m just saying it’s kind of silly, the same way the BCS standings are silly, and yet if you took them away the talk radio air waves would go silent on a Tuesday in November.

And college basketball heads can’t rip on football anymore for having meaningless postseason games, not unless they want to rip on basketball as well. Say what you will about Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. That’s still way more compelling than Rider @ Liberty in the opening “round” of the CollegeInsider.com “tournament.” And just as you can eliminate every non-BCS school from the College Football National Championship race before the start of every season, you can eliminate all but the teams from 7 or 8 conferences in the race for the College Basketball National Championship. Even if one of the “little guys” does get to the tournament they have no shot to win it all. I’ll admit that a #13 seed from the Sun Belt Conference knocking off UCONN in the first round of the tournament is a lot more meaningful than Troy beating Minnesota in a bowl game, but even those moments are getting fewer and farther between. The “madness” has been missing from March recently and in my opinion that trend will continue. This isn’t really a bad thing in my mind. The tournament is just as entertaining. Every game is do or die and you know a third of the games are going to go down to the wire. Plus, less random upsets make for better games later on. And when upsets become the norm, are they really upsets anymore?

Anyway, before we get to the main event, let’s look at the 3 events on the undercard, just for the hell of it.

The National Invitational Tournament

The NIT actually predates the NCAA Tournament by 1 year and has been played every year since 1938. It was once considered the equal to the Big Dance and was even the preferred choice by teams at times. The reason for this can be found in the tournament’s title: the “Invitational.” During the early years, the NCAA Tournament was one made up exclusively of conference winners. Thus, teams who were not members of conferences or did not win their conference were not included in the Big Dance. The NIT “invited” the best of these teams to compete in their tournament. As you might imagine, because only 1 team from each of the conferences made the NCAA’s, the NIT field was often stronger. The other reason that the NIT was special back in the day was its location at “The Basketball Mecca” of Madison Square Garden in New York City. In the beginning the entire tournament was played out at the Garden and this gave schools and players a chance to perform in front of a national stage. It was a very big deal at that time. Back then the winner of the NIT was actually crowned national champion and that title was not looked on as significantly less valid than the title of NCAA Champion. In 1950, City College of New York won both the NIT and NCAA Tournaments. But in the years to come the NCAA became the premier tournament. This occurred because the NCAA Tournament expanded to include more tournament champions, and more importantly, began the practice of awarding “at-large’ bids to prominent teams. The NCAA Tournament was run by the NCAA obviously; while the NIT was run by something called the Metropolitan Intercollegiate Basketball Association. As you would guess, the NCAA eventually overshadowed the indepent tournament and eventually purchased the rights. But for most of the last 60 years the NIT has been a consolation bracket or, in a more cynical view, a “loser’s bracket.”

The tournament’s tradition of playing at Madison Square Garden is about the only charm left about the NIT and even that is eroded by the fact that only the semi-finals and finals are actually played in the Big Apple. 32 teams are selected and seeded and then divided into 4 separate “regions” but the first and second rounds and the quarter finals are played at the higher seeded teams’ home sites. That takes a lot of the “tournament” feel out of the NIT. It’s still a playoff but normally a tournament consists of a bunch of teams playing at one site or a few sites over the course of a number of days. When you have a team playing in Albequerque in front of the same crowd that would have been there during the regular season, and then playing in New Orleans in an empty gym a few nights later, it just doesn’t seem like a tournament.

In recent times one thing that has improved has been the makeup of the field and the way it has been seeded. A committee now sets the field rather than the network covering the tournament hand picking teams that would draw more viewers. And teams from small conferences are able to host games even if it means that the crowds will be smaller. Also, teams do look at the NIT in a slightly better light than in the past. It can be seen as a chance for up and coming teams to improve and get a jump start on next year. Teams can end the season on a good note rather than a disapointing one. A rule was implemented a few years ago both helped bring some motivated teams into the tournament and helped deal with the problem of teams that are at the top of their conference all season long but miss out on the NCAA Tournament because of one loss in their conference tournament. Any team that wins its conference’s regular season championship but does not win their conference tournament and doesn’t receive an at-large big to the Big Dance is automatically reserved a spot in the NIT. So they threw a bone to the little guys here and that actually makes it more interesting because these teams actually feel like they can prove something in the NIT, where as most of the major programs are playing for confidence and momentum, but also realize that even winning the whole thing isn’t going to earn them respect or acclaim. By the way, at least in college football teams are forced to finish the season at .500 or better in order to play in a bowl game. This is actually not a requirement for a team to play in the NCAA, NIT, CBI, or CIT.

The biggest problem with the NIT is that it’s really hard to know what to make of the results. The most interesting thing about the NIT is that many if not most of the teams in the field are ones which had an argument to be in the NCAA Tournament. You can look at a team like St. Mary’s this season and you want to see if they can make the Selection Committee look bad by doing something in the NIT. However, most of the time you don’t end up getting much evidence either way because the first 3 rounds are played on the higher seeded team’s home court. Home court advantage is a bigger deal in college basketball than any other sport and it is perhaps the biggest factor in determining the outcome of any game. A bubble team that just misses the NCAA Tournament is most likely 15-3 or something like it at home, so what more will we learn about that team if they win 2 or even 3 more games at home against other close but not quite tournament teams in the NIT? If the entire tournament was played at a neutral site then a team would be able to separate themselves from the rest of the teams deemed to be close to their level. But with all but the semi-finals and finals played with one team holding a homecourt edge, we are unlikely to learn much of anything new. More than likely, the higher rated seeds are going to win at home and only when we get to the “final four” will the tournament really start.

Actually that isn’t the biggest problem. The biggest problem is that there’s no way of fixing it. Apparently it’s just not feeasable to have most of the tournament played in New York. The cost of travel for teams and trouble selling tickets have to be the biggest issues. The higher seeded teams are able to reap the benefits of another home game and that means ticket sales and consessions. I’m not sure but I think teams would probably lose money by playing in the NIT if the entire thing was played at Madison Square. The only way I could see it working would be to cut the field in half to 16. You seed the teams 1 through 16 and play only the first round at home sites of the higher seeded teams on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then after the first weekend of the “Big Tournament” is over, the 8 remaining NIT teams take the stage at Madison Square Garden. You play the 4 quarterfinal games on Monday; the 2 semi-final games on Tuesday; and the final on Wednesday. There would be no game during the week leading up to the Final Four but I still think this would be the best way.

While we might expect slighted mid-majors to do some damage in the NIT, that has not been the case at all in modern times. The NIT has been controlled by teams from the 10 major basketball conferences (the 6 BCS conferences plus the A-10, C-USA, the WAC, and the Moutain West) in the last 25 years. Bradley won the NIT in 1982 but in the 26 NIT’s since then no team not currently in one of the 10 major conferences has even made the NIT Final, much less won the title. Last year, all 4 of the #1 seeds in the NIT reached the quarterfinals along with 3 of the #2 seeds and a #3 seed. However, Ohio State was the only #1 seed to win their quarterfinal matchup, beating Dayton to make the “final four.” The other 3 teams to make it to New York were all #2 seeds, as UMASS upset Syracuse, Florida knocked off Arizona State, and Ole Miss beat Virginia Tech. In semi-finals at Madison Square, UMASS defeated Florida and Ohio State beat Mississippi to set up a Buckeye-Minnute Man final. #1 Ohio State defeated #2 UMASS, 72-65, in the championship to win the 2008 NIT.

A week ago I thought this year’s NIT had a chance to be the most highpowered field ever. Looking around at the state of braketotlogy, it seemed likely to me that the NIT field of 32 would include a huge number of big names and talented teams: Georgetown, Notredame, Providence, Cincinnati, Michigan, Penn State, Northwestern, Florida, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Miami, Maryland, Nebraska, Baylor, Arizona, USC, Stanford, Washington State, UAB, Houston, Davidson, Creighton, Temple, St. Joe’s, George Mason and more. I mean, that’s almost the entire field of 32 right there just made up of marquee teams. However, a was off on a couple of counts. Number 1: I forget that all teams that won their conference regular season title and then lost their conference tournament would get automatic bids. Number 2: The landscape of bracketology changed, and Michigan, Miss State, Maryland, Arizona, USC, and Temple all made it to the field of 65. Still, this year’s field is pretty solid. Without question, as far as consolation tournaments go, the NIT is the cream of the crop. Snubbed bubble teams San Deigo State, St. Mary’s, Creighton, and Penn State are included in the field, as well as teams like Florida, Kentucky, Providence, Miami, Kansas State, Georgetown, Baylor, Notre Dame, Davidson, and UNLV. Before I get to my prediction there is one more important note: although Miami is a #4 seed they will be playing at #5 Providence in the first round of the NIT because of scheduling issues. Here are my picks.

2009 NIT Predictions

First Round
West
#1 San Diego State over #8 Webber State
#2 St. Mary’s over #7 Washington State
#3 South Carolina over #6 Davidson
#4 Kansas State over #5 Illinois State
East
#1 Auburn over #8 UT-Martin
#7 Duquesne over #2 Virginia Tech
#3 Baylor over #6 Georgetown
#4 Tulsa over #5 Northwestern
Midwest
#1 Creighton over #8 Bowling Green
#2 Notre Dame over #7 UAB
#3 New Mexico over #6 Nebraska
#5 UNLV over #4 Kentucky
South
#1 Florida over #8 Jacksonville
#2 Penn State over #7 George Mason
#6 Rhode Island over #3 Niagara
#5 Providence over #4 Miami

Second Round
West
#1 San Diego State over #4 Kansas State
#2 St. Mary’s over #3 South Carolina
East
#1 Auburn over #4 Tulsa
#3 Baylor over #7 Duquesne
Midwest
#1 Creighton over #5 UNLV
#2 Notre Dame over #3 New Mexico
South
#1 Florida over #5 Providence
#6 Rhode Island over #2 Penn State

Regional Finals
West
#1 San Diego State over #2 St. Mary’s
East
#1 Auburn over #3 Baylor
Midwest
#1 Creighton over #2 Notre Dame
South
#1 Florida over #6 Rhode Island

Semifinals
#1 San Diego State over #1 Auburn
#1 Creighton over #1 Florida

Championship
#1 Creighton over #1 San Diego State



The College Basketball Invitational Tournament

When the NIT reduced its field from 40 to 32 teams in 2007, a group of basketball people known as the Gazelle Group got together to form a 3rd postseason tournament which they named the College Basketball Invitational or CBI. Fox College Sports signed on to cover the games. A field of 16 teams would be selected by a committee and divided into 4 separate 4-team regions and then seeded. All games would be played at the home sites of the higher seeded teams. After the first two rounds, the winners of the 4 regions would be re-seeded and then the semi-finals would take place, again with the higher seeded teams hosting. The signature aspect of the CBI (or its gimmick) was that the finals would be a best of 3 series, with game 1 being at the higher seeded team’s site, game 2 being at the other team’s site, and if necessary, game 3 being at the higher seeded team’s site. While it might seem a little silly, I actually appreciate that they made an honest attempt to help solve the home court advantage issue. And it was something unique to the CBI, the way the NIT is unique for having the semi’s played at Madison Square. The 16-team field for the inaugural CBI was actually pretty solid, with UTEP, Bradley, Virginia, Houston, Nevada, and Utah making the field. Surprisingly, 2 of the 4 #1 seeds lost at home in the opening round, as UTEP fell to Utah and Washington went down to Valparaiso. #2 Tulsa beat Utah and #3 Houston beat Valpo to reach the semi’s, as did #1 seeds Bradley and UVA. After re-seeding, Tulsa beat Houston and Bradley knocked off Virginia to set up a Bradley-Houston final “series.” Tulsa had the higher seed and they won the opener but Bradley won game 2 to force a rubber match. Tulsa won on their home court to take the series, 2-1, and win the inaugural CBI title.

Unfortunately, this year’s addition of the CBI has a far less promising field of 16. UTEP, Houston, and Nevada are back and Stanford is included in this year’s field, but 1 of the #1 seeds is Oregon State which finished 13-17 on the season. Also in the field is St. John’s who ended up 16-17, as well as Wichita State who ended up 16-16. Here are my picks, and remember, I have to make a guess as to how the final 4 teams would be “re-seeded” before the semi-finals.

2009 CBI Tournament Predictions

Opening Round
Midwest
#1 Stanford over #4 Boise State
#2 Wichita State over #3 Buffalo
South
#1 Nevada over #4 UTEP
#2 Wyoming over #3 Northeastern
West
#4 Houston over #1 Oregon State
#2 Wisconsin-Green Bay over #3 Vermont
East
#1 Richmond over #4 St. John’s
#3 College of Charleston over #2 Troy

Regional Finals
Midwest
#1 Stanford over #2 Wichita State
South
#1 Nevada over #2 Wyoming
West
#2 Wisconsin-Green Bay over #4 Houston
East
#3 College of Charleston over #1 Richmond

Semifinals
#1 Nevada over #4 College of Charleston
#2 Stanford over #3 Wisconsin-Green Bay

Championship
#1 Nevada over #2 Stanford, 2-1


The CollegeInsider.com Tournament

Clearly there was a need for even more postseason play. With that goal in mind, the folks at CollegeInsider.com got together and formed the aptly named, “CollegeInsider.com Tournament.” Like the CBI, the CIT is made up of a field of 16-teams selected by a committee, seeded, and with all games played at the home site of the higher seeded teams. However, there are a number of key differences, some of them good, some of them not so good. Starting with the good, one of the CIT’s guidelines is that all 16 teams in the field must have a winning record (not just .500). Another positive aspect is that the CIT selection committee gives higher priority to teams from conferences that have less than 50% of its teams participating in the NCAA and NIT tournaments. Now on to the bad. The biggest problem with the CIT is that they have decided to go with a format once used by the NIT, in which a team’s future opponent will only be determined after the completion of each round. In other words, the teams are going to be re-seeded not only before the semi’s, but also before the quarterfinals. Essentially there is no bracket. And as strange as it seemed for the CBI to place Oregon State as a #1 seed, at least the rest of that tournament’s seeding made sense. The CIT’s opening round match-ups and locations appear to have been made with almost no rhyme or reason. Actually that is not entirely true but the fact of the matter is that the teams’ records and resumes are all pretty close and so it’s hard to figure who is seeded what. This is not a star studded event; it’s not even star bedazzled (Cheap Seats Season I, Episode “NFL/MLB Arm Wrestling”) but Vegas is still setting lines so what they hey. It’s tough to know how things will pan out after each round but I decided to give it my best shot anyway. Here are my picks.

2009 CollegeInsider.com Tournament Predictions

First Round

East
#1 Old Dominion over #4 Citadel
#2 Liberty over #3 Rider

South
#4 Mount St. Mary’s over #1 James Madison
#2 Oakland over #3 Kent State

Midwest
#1 Bradley over #4 Austin Peay
#3 Belmont over #2 Evansville

West
#1 Pacific over #4 Portland
#2 Idaho over #3 Drake

Quarterfinals
#1 Old Dominion over #8 Mount St. Mary’s
#2 Bradley over #7 Belmont
#3 Oakland over #6 Liberty
#4 Pacific over #5 Idaho

Semifinals
#1 Old Dominion over #4 Pacific
#2 Bradley over #3 Oakland

Finals
#1 Old Dominion over #2 Bradley