As you all know I like to make a number of predictions before each season where I pick which teams will make the playoffs and who will win awards and I write a little something about how I think each team will do. Now that we’re at the All-Star Break I decided to go back and look at my predictions from before the start of the season and I’m excited to say that this year is shaping up to be one of my worst ever. I thought you guys might find them amusing so I thought I’d grade my predictions so far, comparing my picks with the actual results at the All-Star Break and how each team is on pace to finish. After the picks and standings there’s a section of notes which include some of my other awful predictions.
Predictions
AL East
1. Boston (92-70)
2. NYY (90-72)
3. Toronto (88-74)
4. TB (75-87)
5. Baltimore (53-109)
AL Central
1. Detroit (102-60)
2. Cleveland (100-62)
3. Chicago (70-92)
4. Minnesota (68-94)
5. KC (66-96)
AL West
1. Seattle (100-62)
2. Anaheim (97-65)
3. Texas (70-92)
4. Oakland (64-98)
NL East
1. Philly (94-68)
2. Atlanta (92-70)
3. NYM (92-70)
4. Florida (73-89)
5. Wash (65-97)
NL Central
1. Chicago (89-73)
2. Mil (88-74)
3. Houston (85-77)
4. Pittsburgh (82-80)
5. Cincinnati (62-100)
6. St. Louis (60-102)
NL West
1. Arizona (97-65)
2. Colorado (88-74)
3. SD (83-79)
4. LA (81-81)
5. SF (64-98)
Current Standings
AL East
1. Boston (57-40)
2. TB (55-39)
3. NYY (50-45)
4. Toronto (47-48)
5. Baltimore (45-48)
AL Central
1. Chicago (54-40)
2. Minnesota (53-42)
3. Detroit (47-47)
4. KC (43-53)
5. Cleveland (41-53)
AL West
1. Anaheim (57-38)
2. Oakland (51-44)
3. Texas (50-46)
4. Seattle (37-58)
NL East
1. Philly (52-44)
2. NYM (51-44)
3. Florida (50-45)
4. Atlanta (45-50)
5. Wash (36-60)
NL Central
1. Chicago (57-38)
2. St. Louis (53-43)
3. Mil (52-43)
4. Cincinnati (46-50)
5. Pittsburgh (44-50)
6. Houston (44-51)
NL West
1. Arizona (47-38)
2. LA (46-49)
3. SF (40-55)
4. Colorado (39-57)
5. SD (37-58)
On Pace For Approx
AL East
1. Boston (95-67)
2. TB (95-67)
3. NYY (85-77)
4. Toronto (80-82)
5. Baltimore (78-84)
AL Central
1. Chicago (93-69)
2. Minnesota (90-72)
3. Detroit (81-81)
4. KC (73-89)
5. Cleveland (71-91)
AL West
1. Anaheim (97-65)
2. Oakland (87-75)
3. Texas (85-77))
4. Seattle (63-99)
NL East
1. Philly (88-74))
2. NYM ()
3. Florida (85-77)
4. Atlanta (77-85)
5. Wash (61-101)
NL Central
1. Chicago (97-65)
2. St. Louis (89-73)
3. Mil (89-73)
4. Cincinnati (78-84)
5. Pittsburgh (76-86)
6. Houston (75-87)
NL West
1. Arizona (80-82)
2. LA (78-84)
3. SF (68-94)
4. Colorado (67-95)
5. SD (63-99)
Notes and Other Predictions
· 4 of my predicted division winners are in 1st place.
· At this point I have 7 of 30 teams placed correctly in the standings.
· Of 14 teams currently over. 500 I picked 7 to finish over .500. I Picked Detroit to finish with a winning record and they are the only team in MLB currently at .500.
· Of 15 teams currently under .500 I picked 5 to finish under .500. I picked the Dodgers to finish at .500 and they are currently under .500.
· I picked Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, and Seattle to make the playoffs in the AL. Seattle and Cleveland are currently in last place in their respective divisions and the Tigers are at .500 and 7 games out of 1st in the Central. At least Boston looks like a safe bet at this point but I had Cleveland beating the Tigers in the ALCS to go to the World Series and that doesn’t look likely at this point.
· Some of my worst picks so far appear to be in the AL West. Seattle would have to go 63-4 the rest of the way to finish with the 100-62 record that I predicted; Oakland would have to go 13-54 the rest of the way to finish with the 64-98 record I predicted.
· I also don’t look too good in the AL Central. Detroit would have to go 55-13 the rest of the way to finish with the 102-60 record I predicted; Cleveland would have to go 59-9 the rest of the way to finish with the 100-62 record I predicted; Minnesota would have to go 15-52 the rest of the way to finish with the 68-94 record I predicted; and the White Sox would have to go 16-52 the rest of the way to finish with the 70-92 record I predicted. I think this is my worst division.
· It doesn’t look like I hit the target on my Cardinals prediction either. They would have to go 7-59 the rest of the way to finish with the 60-102 record I predicted. But other than that I’m looking good in the NL.
· Wait, wait…I fucked up in the NL West as well. Arizona needs to go 50-17 to get to the 97-65 mark I predicted; Colorado has to go 49-17 the rest of the way to get to the 88-74 record I predicted; and the Padres must go 46-21 the rest of the way to finish with the 83-79 record I predicted.
· Actually I think the NL West might be my worst division. I picked 3 NL West teams to finish over .500 and 1 to finish at .500. At the All-Star Break all 5 teams in the NL West are under .500.
· I picked the Phillies, Diamond Backs, and Cubs to make the playoffs and they all look like decent calls at this moment. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look very likely that the Braves will tie the Mets for the Wild Card, beat them in a 1 game playoff to make the postseason and go on to beat Cleveland in the World Series. Of my predictions of the awards, some are good and some aren’t so good but one stands out as simply hilarious. My pick for AL Manager of the Year was John McLaren. As you all know, McLaren was fired by the Mariners on June 19th after 72 games with the Mariners in last place at 25-47. McLaren will most likely never manage again in the Majors. His career is likely over after parts of two seasons and just 156 games as a big league manager. However McLaren’s place in baseball history and indeed the history of all of us humans is secure; for before he bowed out unceremoniously a month ago he let loose with a classic tirade, during which he managed to offer perhaps the most dramatic and honest expression of what it feels like to be beaten down day after day by life, with your hopes and dreams crushed, and be completely incapable of turning it around. At some point you can’t take it anymore and you just kind of start shouting things which don’t really mean anything on their own, but when stuck together in a moment of delirium, they make complete sense: “I’m tired of getting my ass beat and so are the guys! We’ve got to change this fucking shit around and get after it! And only we can do it!...There’s no fucking easy way out of this! We can’t feel sorry for our self! We’ve gotta fucking buckle it up and get after it! ” My friends, that is absolute brilliance.
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