The NFL Blog: 2012 Week 11 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread: (7-7); Straight Up: (8-5-1)

Season: Vs. Spread: (79-65-2); Straight Up: (89-56-1)

Week 10 Review: Week 10 was a streaking one for me and a very odd one for the NFL. I was just fine coming away with a .500 record ATS and a winning record straight up considering all the surprises of week 10. 

Consider that Tennessee blew out Miami on the road; Cincinnati blew out the Giants on the road; and New England, San Francisco, and the Steelers all narrowly avoided losing at home as double digit favorites.

We also saw 4 QB’s get knocked out with injuries. We saw one of the first “high impact weather” games of the year on Sunday night. And we saw the first tie in the NFL in several years. This just wasn’t a normal week, and I was glad to escape it with a decent record.  

Week 11 Preview: There are 14 games once again this week, with 4 more teams taking their bye. The good news is that this is the final “bye week” of the season. Starting with week 12 we’ll be back to full schedule. 

There aren’t many “sexy” matchups this week. There were only a few good matchups to begin with, and now those matchups have been compromised by the rash of QB injuries that hit the league last week.

Thursday night’s game is on the low end of the interest scale: Miami at Buffalo. On Sunday night we’ll have another installment of one of the best rivalries of the last 15 years, as the Ravens face the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, this one figures to be mired by missing players. Ray Lewis will obviously not be playing in this one and it doesn’t sound like Troy Polamalu will be suited up for this one either. Most importantly, Big Ben Roethlisberger appears to have a fairly significant shoulder injury and will almost certainly not play in this one. That will obviously change things dramatically, as the Steelers’ offense will be severely hamstrung. 

Monday night’s game is one that would have seemed really exciting prior to last weekend. After the injuries this past Sunday, however, it appears unlikely that either the Bears or Niners will have their starting QB in this one. That’s going to make for an even more conservatively played offensive game than it already would have been. Both the Sunday night and Monday night games could end up being ugly. 

I do want to say one thing about the Sunday/Monday night schedules this season. I totally understand the networks being partial to teams with big fan bases that will ensure high ratings. And I would never complain about an annual classic like Steelers-Ravens. But I would like to see a bit more variety in the primetime schedule. Honestly, I feel like every week of this season either the Steelers or Bears have played a stand-alone game. I’m a little bit tired of Pittsburgh and Chicago right now. 

I don’t know; maybe it’s just because there have been at least 3 stand-alone games each week this season. It could be that things are just as spread out as usual but there’s more volume because of that extra Thursday night game. The Steelers will be playing their tenth game this Sunday. By my count, it will be their fifth primetime game, and they’ve also played in the four o’clock time slot twice, when there are only 1 to 3 other games going on. That seems like a lot. Chicago will also be playing their fifth primetime game out of 10 this week. 

At the end of this week there will have been 34 stand-alone primetime games on the year (3 per week plus the extra Monday night game in week 1) and 10 of those games—nearly 30%--will have featured either the Steelers or the Bears. Again, I get that the Bears, Steelers, and Cowboys have fan bases which are big enough to guarantee solid ratings, and I also understand that those teams tend to have traditional rivalries which people are interested in, but that just seems like a lot. 

This is going to be a tricky week due to all of the quarterback questions. Once again I’m just hoping to get by with a decent record.

 

Thursday Night’s Game

Miami (+1) @ Buffalo

Pick: Dolphins pull off the upset

Sunday’s Early Games 

Philadelphia (+3.5) @ Washington

Pick: Skins cover

Green Bay (-3.5) @ Detroit

Pick: Packers cover

Arizona (+9.5) @ Atlanta

Pick: Falcons cover

Tampa Bay (-1) @ Carolina

Pick: Bucs cover

Cleveland (+9.5) @ Dallas

Pick: Cowboys cover

New York Jets (+3) @ St. Louis

Pick: Rams cover

Jacksonville (+15.5) @ Houston

Pick: Texans cover

Cincinnati (-3.5) @ Kansas City

Pick: Bengals cover

Sunday’s Late Games

New Orleans (-4.5) @ Oakland

Pick: Saints cover

San Diego (+8.5) @ Denver

Pick: Broncos cover

Indianapolis (+9.5) @ New England

Pick: Pats win but Colts beat the spread

Sunday Night’s Game

Baltimore (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh 

Pick: Ravens cover

Monday Night’s Game

Chicago (+4) @ San Francisco   

Pick: Niners cover