Season
Résumé Rankings After Week 12
1. Notre Dame 11-0 (3rd)
2. Florida 10-1 (1st)
3. Ohio State 11-0 (9th)
4. Alabama 10-1 (4th)
5. LSU 9-2 (8th)
6. Kansas State 10-1 (2nd)
7. Texas A&M 9-2 (6th)
8. Oregon 10-1 (5th)
9. Oregon State 8-2 (NR)
10. Stanford 9-2 (NR)
Out:
Georgia (7th); South Carolina (10th).
Comments:
A very interesting week for these rankings. These rankings are obviously quite
different from last week. There were 3 main reasons for all of this change. The
most obvious was the fact that 2 of the undefeated teams—Kansas State (formerly
#2 in these rankings) and Oregon (#5)—lost for the first time on the season.
Kansas State’s loss was
much, much more costly than Oregon’s loss. KSU lost to a Baylor team that came
into the game at 4-5 and they lost by 28. Oregon’s loss did come at home, but
an overtime loss to one of the best teams isn’t nearly as bad in my formula as
a blowout loss to an average team.
On the other hand,
Kansas State’s résumé was very strong prior to last week, so they were able to
take a big hit and remain in the top 10. Oregon’s résumé wasn’t quite as
strong, so even though they didn’t take a big hit with last week’s loss, it
still hurt that they missed a chance for a very valuable win.
In addition, Stanford
(formerly unranked just outside the top 10) got a huge boost from a road win
against one of the best teams in the country.
At the same time,
almost all of the top SEC teams played FCS opponents last week, meaning they
gained nothing in my formula. One thing about my system is that playing a
difficult schedule is crucial. Contrary to the traditional polls—which value “not
losing” over everything else—in my system teams are better off playing a tough
schedule that may include a loss or two rather than a safe schedule which may
lead to a perfect season.
My system may in fact
be a bit too forgiving when it comes to losing. I may try to tweak it slightly
next year to make even the best loss costly and the worst win valuable to some
degree. However, I’m kind of torn on the issue. Sports are all about winning
and losing, so when a team loses we want it to be reflected in our rankings. If
you look at the human polls, Oregon’s punishment for losing to Stanford was for
them to be moved behind teams that played FCS opponents last week. That’s a
result of that natural instinct that any loss is much worse than any “non-loss.”
In my system, Oregon didn’t lose for losing to a great team and the SEC teams
didn’t gain for “not losing” against FCS teams, and I actually think my system
makes more sense.
The third factor to the
change this week didn’t have much to do with what happened last week to the undefeated
teams or the SEC teams; it was all about the other teams on their schedules.
Several teams in the average or better portion of the strength of opponent
scale moved up or down 1 level this week. UCLA moved up, while USC moved down,
effecting some of the Pac-12 teams in contention. Stanford also moved into the “Best”
category which was a boost for Notre Dame. A couple of SEC teams were moved
down on the strength of opponent scale. Previous victories against Missouri
(who lost to Syracuse at home) and Tennessee (who got blown out by Vandy) weren’t
as valuable anymore. The result of all of this was that some of the SEC teams
lost points this week even though they didn’t gain or lose points based on
their games against FCS teams.
Once again this week I
limited the pool of eligible contenders to all teams with less than 3 losses. The
number of eligible teams shrunk this week from 31 to 27, with 2 remaining
undefeated teams, 11 teams with just 1 loss, and 14 teams with 2 losses. When I
finished adding up the scores I was really surprised.
I switched out 2 teams
this week. Both of the teams falling out of the rankings were from the SEC,
while the 2 teams replacing them were from the Pac-12. Georgia fell out of the
rankings from #7, while South Carolina dropped out of the rankings from the #10
spot. Oregon State and Stanford claimed the final 2 spots in the top 10 this
week, with Oregon State at #9 and Stanford at #10.
Overall, 9 of the 10
spots in these rankings changed. 3 teams moved up in the rankings, with all 3
of those teams moving up more than 1 spot. 4 teams dropped in the rankings
while still staying in the top 10, and 2 of those teams fell by more than 1
spot.
Ohio State made the
biggest move up the rankings this week, climbing 6 spots from #9 to #3. Ohio
State certainly benefits from being 1 of only 2 remaining unbeaten teams, but
the bigger factor this week was their road win over a good team in Wisconsin.
That was a valuable win for the Buckeyes, who haven’t beaten any great teams
yet but have beaten a couple of good teams on the road.
Not surprisingly,
Kansas State took the biggest fall in these rankings this week. KSU was blown
out by an average team and it cost them. They moved down 4 spots from #2 to #6.
There was also a change
at the very top of my rankings this week. I wasn’t sure what was going to
happen before I calculated the changes and added up the scores. I remembered
that Kansas State was poised to overtake Florida if they could get by Baylor.
Knowing that it hadn’t happened, I fully expected Florida to maintain their
hold on the top spot. However, Notre Dame ended Florida’s 3 week stay atop the
rankings, moving up 2 spots from #3 to grab the #1 spot. Florida moved down 1
spot from #1 to #2.
There will almost
certainly be more changes next week. Even if my traditional power rankings
remain the same, I think the season résumé rankings are going to change quite a
bit each week from here on out.
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