Last
Week’s Record
Biggest
10 Games (Straight Up: 6-4; Vs. Spread: 4-6)
Overall
(Straight
Up: 45-11; Vs. Spread: 32-24; Moneyline Upsets: 1-1)
Season
Record
Biggest
10 Games (Straight Up: 63-37; Vs. Spread: 45-55)
Overall
(Straight
Up: 393-118; Vs. Spread: 271-239; Moneyline Upsets: 20-19)
Week
10 Review: After finishing with a losing record ATS overall
for the first time in a while last week, I was relieved to have a solid record
ATS this week. However, picking ATS in the biggest 10 games continues to be a
thorn in my balls. I’m running out of time in that category.
Week
11 Preview: This week isn’t loaded with obviously huge
matchups. But as we know, total chaos can strike when we least expect it in
this sport, particularly in the month of November. Throughout the season I’ve
used a mixture of important matchups and rivalries to come up with the Biggest
10 Games of each week. This week I relied heavily on rivalry games. For one
thing, it’s just the time of year that a lot of rivalry games are played. But
to be honest there just aren’t that many huge matchups this week. Again,
however, that doesn’t mean we won’t end up seeing some huge games this week.
You just never know in this sport.
There are 56 games this
week spread out from Tuesday through Saturday night. For the first time in
several weeks there is 1 game featuring an FCS team this week, and in the
coming weeks those games will start to return, as some teams now-a-days
schedule what amounts to another bye week late in the year.
A couple of notes about
the betting lines this week. Ordinarily the games are listed in fairly strict chronological
order in this blog. This week some of the games are out of order because I
typed in the matchups without spreads on Sunday night before all of the times
were straightened out on Covers.com. It seemed like a waste of time to rearrange
everything when I plugged in the spreads and made the picks on Tuesday.
The other thing is that
for the first time this year—and the first time I can ever remember—there is
one matchup for which I have been unable to find any kind of spread at all.
Because there are several games early in the week, I really can’t afford to
wait for a line that may not come until very late in the week, if at all.
Whenever a game is taken off the board due to the status of one or more players
I’m always able to find an early line to use. That has not been the case this
week.
Unfortunately, the game
in question is perhaps the biggest matchup of the weekend: Kansas State at TCU.
KSU has kept extremely quiet about the status of star QB Collin Klein. Even the
nature of Klein’s injury is somewhat of a mystery. The consensus seems to be
that Klein suffered a concussion during the 2nd half of last
Saturday’s game. He took a shot while scoring a TD in the 3rd
quarter and remained on the sideline without a helmet for the rest of the
night.
I’m assuming Klein will
be able to play, but since everyone is basically in the dark on this one there
are simply no lines out there. And since Klein’s status was obviously in doubt
right from the start there aren’t any opening lines to use. All I have to go on
is the spread listed by “The Linemakers,” which is certainly a reputable
source, but it may not end up being an accurate reflection of the eventual
point spreads listed by Vegas and everyone else. But for our purposes, it’ll
have to do.
.
Saturday
Game
1:
Oregon State (+4.5) @ Stanford
Pick:
Oregon State beats the spread
Game
2:
Northwestern (+11) @ Michigan
Pick:
Northwestern beats the spread
Game
3:
Kent State (-6.5) @ Miami (Ohio)
Pick:
Miami (Ohio) beats the spread
Game
4:
Central Michigan (-2.5) @ Eastern Michigan
Pick:
Central Michigan covers
Game
5:
Penn State (+7.5) @ Nebraska
Pick:
Penn State beats the spread
Game
6:
Texas A&M (+14) @ Alabama
Pick:
Texas A&M beats the spread
Game
7:
Kansas State (-4.5) @ TCU
Pick:
Kansas State covers
Game
8:
Mississippi State (+14.5) @ LSU
Pick:
Mississippi State beats the spread
Game
9:
Georgia (-15) @ Auburn
Pick:
Georgia covers
Game
10:
Notre Dame (-18.5) @ Boston College
Pick:
Notre Dame covers
Other
Games
Tuesday
Ball State (+6.5) @
Toledo (BSU beats the spread)
Wednesday
Bowling Green (+3) @
Ohio (Ohio covers)
Thursday
Louisiana-Monroe (+6.5)
@ Arkansas State (ULM beats the spread)
Florida State (-14) @
Virginia Tech (FSU covers)
Friday
Pittsburgh (-3.5) @
Connecticut (Pitt covers)
Saturday
Utah (-1.5) @
Washington (Washington pulls off the upset)
Miami (+1) @ Virginia (Miami
pulls off the upset)
Western Michigan (-2.5)
@ Buffalo (Buffalo pulls off the upset)
Purdue (+5) @ Iowa (Purdue
beats the spread)
Arkansas (+14) @ South
Carolina (Arkansas beats the spread)
Kansas (+25) @ Texas
Tech (Texas Tech covers)
Wisconsin (-7) @
Indiana (Wisconsin covers)
Army (+18) @ Rutgers (Rutgers
covers)
Louisville (-3) @
Syracuse (Louisville covers)
Cincinnati (-10.5) @
Temple (Temple beats the spread)
Iowa State (+10.5) @
Texas (ISU beats the spread)
Louisiana-Lafayette (+26)
@ Florida (ULL beats the spread)
Missouri (+3) @
Tennessee (Tennessee covers)
Georgia Tech (+9) @
North Carolina (UNC covers)
Florida Atlantic (+16.5)
@ Western Kentucky (WK covers)
Colorado (+30.5) @
Arizona (Arizona covers)
Massachusetts (+17) @
Akron (Akron covers)
Wake Forest (+9) @
North Carolina State (WF beats the spread)
Wyoming (-1.5) @ New
Mexico (Wyoming covers)
Maryland (+31) @
Clemson (Clemson covers)
West Virginia (+7.5) @
Oklahoma State (Oklahoma State covers)
Baylor (+21.5) @ Oklahoma
(Baylor beats the spread)
Air Force (+9.5) @ San
Diego State (SD State covers)
Arizona State (+9) @
USC (ASU beats the spread)
Minnesota (-3.5) @
Illinois (Minnesota covers)
San Jose State (-22.5)
@ New Mexico State (SJS covers)
Navy (PK) @ Troy (Navy
covers)
Marshall (-3) @ UAB (Marshall
covers)
Tulsa (-2.5) @ Houston
(Tulsa covers)
South Alabama (+9.5) @
North Texas (SA beats the spread)
Louisiana Tech (-20) @
Texas State (LT covers)
Central Florida (-14) @
UTEP (UTEP beats the spread)
Southern Mississippi (+13.5)
@ SMU (SMU covers)
Tulane (-1.5) @ Memphis
(Tulane covers)
Vanderbilt (+3) @
Mississippi (Mississippi covers)
UNLV (-2) @ Colorado
State (CSU pulls off the upset)
Boise State (-29.5) @
Hawaii (Boise State covers)
Idaho (+38) @ BYU (BYU
covers)
Oregon (-28) @
California (Oregon covers)
UCLA (-14.5) @
Washington State (UCLA covers)
Fresno State (-3.5) @
Nevada (Nevada pulls off the upset)
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