Last
Week’s Record
Biggest
25 Games (Straight Up: 18-7; Vs. Spread: 14-10-1)
Overall
(Straight
Up: 46-11; Vs. Spread: 31-24-2; Moneyline Upsets: 2-3)
Season
Record
Biggest
10 Games (Straight Up: 95-50; Vs. Spread: 70-74-1)
Overall
(Straight
Up: 520-158; Vs. Spread: 353-320-4; Moneyline Upsets: 29-27)
Week
13 Review: Well that was fun. I mean that was just a great
week of football. Sure, if Notre Dame had gone down Saturday night to top it
all off it would have been much better, but it was still a tremendous week of
college football. My team won the biggest game of the year; the SEC rolled; and
there was simply entertaining football from Tuesday through the early morning hours
of Sunday (plus all of the great NFL action). It was a pretty awesome week.
It didn’t start out
looking good at all as far as my picks were concerned. There was a point early
on Saturday when it looked like I was finally headed for that disaster week. It
looked like the inflated “Big Games” count would work against me this year.
I usually don’t mark
off every game as it concludes so I don’t normally know exactly where I stand.
For this last big week I decided to chart my progress and it was painful for a
while. At one point I was something like 4-9 ATS in the big games and 9-16 ATS
overall. At that time I would have been thrilled with a .500 record.
But eventually my luck
turned and I finished up the week on fire. The nice record in the biggest games
got me back within striking distance of .500 in that category for the year. And
I hadn’t had a solid overall week ATS in a while. I had my first losing week
picking upsets since early October but 2-3 isn’t so bad.
Week
14 Preview: This final “extra” week of the season
has really gotten good. It’s always a bit sad to see the season come to a
close, but this should be a fun week. I’m obviously super excited for the SEC
Championship Game, but there are a number of other interesting matchups.
In the past I have
sometimes had more than 10 “biggest games” during “Championship Week” but for
the second year in a row I was able to narrow it down to 10 for this final
week. There are 18 total games, so there will be more “big games” than “other
games” this week. Strangely, there is also a game involving an FCS team this
week, as Oregon State and Nichols State will make up the game that was
postponed due to the storm in early September.
There are a number of
conference championship games this week. The SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and MAC championship
games will be played at neutral sites, while the Pac-12 and C-USA championship
games will be home games for Stanford and Tulsa respectively.
The SEC Championship
Game would have to be considered the biggest game of the week, as it will
amount to a “play-in game” for the BCS Championship Game, with the winner going
on to face Notre Dame (sometime in late March I suppose), and the loser very
likely being left out of the BCS bowl picture all together.
There’s something a bit
unusual about all of the conference championship games this year. This year’s
MAC title game doesn’t really have a strange quirk, but it is unusual for that
game not to have a heavy favorite. Certainly NIU is expected to win, but in
recent years that game has usually been a matchup of the dominant MAC team of
the year vs. a fluky team from the other division (with the fluky team often
upsetting the favorite in fluky fashion). That’s not really the case this
season between NIU and Kent State.
This year’s Big Ten and
ACC title games are strange because the matchups have been affected by NCAA
imposed or self-imposed postseason bans. Georgia Tech finished in a 3-way tie
for 1st in the ACC Coastal Division with Miami and UNC, and in a
normal year it would have been determined by highest BCS ranking (although I
don’t know how they would have figured this out because none of the teams would
have been in the BCS top 25). This would have left Tech on the outside, as they
carry just a 6-6 record overall, while Miami is 7-5 and UNC is 8-4. But UNC is
serving a postseason ban this season and Miami decided to self-impose a
postseason ban for a second consecutive year, thus opening the door for GT.
Things are much sillier
in the Big Ten, where Wisconsin finished 3rd in the “Leaders”
division, 2 games back of 2nd place Penn State and a full 4 games
back of Ohio State. However, Ohio State is banned from postseason play this
season because of the shenanigans with Terrelle Pryor and crew, and PSU is banned
from postseason play because some asshole molested a bunch of kids. Thus,
Wisconsin (4-4 in conference) will represent the vaunted “Leaders” division in
the Big Ten showdown against Nebraska.
The Pac-12 and C-USA
championship games are strange because the matchups are repeats of recent games.
Central Florida played at Tulsa in week 12. UCLA and Stanford played just last
week, with Stanford pounding UCLA in LA. Stanford’s reward is to host UCLA in
the championship game this week. That seems a little too much like the NFL for
me, but it's the reality of college football these days.
The Big East and Sun
Belt will play “de facto” conference championship games, as the top 2 teams in
each league happen to be playing this week. Obviously there is more at stake in
the Big East game because the winner will get to be blown out in a BCS game,
but I honestly don’t think Louisville and Rutgers are much better than Middle
Tennessee State and Arkansas State, if at all. Cincinnati can also claim a “share”
of the Big East title if they win and Louisville wins, but they won’t go to a
BCS game no matter what happens because they lost head-to-head against both
Louisville and Rutgers.
The Big XII title is
also to be determined this week. If KSU wins or Oklahoma loses, the Wildcats
clinch a BCS bid. If Texas upsets Kansas State and Oklahoma wins, the Sooners
will win yet another Big XII title and will probably figure out a way to lose
another BCS game.
I’m only picking one
underdog to win this week, and I’m not sure I’d be taking the Dawgs if they
weren’t my team. I just kind of have a feeling, but that feeling could be
coming from something other than objective intuition (doesn’t mean it’s wrong
though).
And for the most part I’m
taking favorites to cover ATS this week (14 of 18). I think I discounted the “rivalry”
factor a little bit too much last week, but this week really isn’t about
rivalries at all, so I think it’s safe to just go with the better team to cover
in most cases.
I’d like to get back to
.500 ATS in the biggest games but because I’m only picking the usual 10 this
week I doubt it will happen. I’ve traditionally done really well in this final “light”
week of the regular season and hopefully that will continue.
.
Thursday
Game
1:
Louisville (+3) @ Rutgers
Pick:
Rutgers covers
Friday
Game
2:
Northern Illinois (-6) vs. Kent State (Detroit)
Pick:
Kent State beats the spread
Game
3:
UCLA (+8.5) @ Stanford
Pick:
Stanford covers
Saturday
Game
4:
Oklahoma (-6.5) @ TCU
Pick:
TCU beats the spread
Game
5:
Central Florida (+1.5) @ Tulsa
Pick:
Tulsa covers
Game
6:
Middle Tennessee State (+9.5) @ Arkansas State
Pick:
Arkansas State covers
Game
7:
Alabama (-7) vs. Georgia (Atlanta)
Pick:
Georgia pulls off the upset
Game
8:
Texas (+11.5) @ Kansas State
Pick:
Kansas State covers
Game
9:
Florida State (-14) vs. Georgia Tech (Charlotte)
Pick:
Florida State covers
Game
10:
Nebraska (-3) vs. Wisconsin (Indianapolis)
Pick:
Nebraska covers
Other
Games
Saturday
Oklahoma State (-4) @
Baylor (Oklahoma State covers)
Kansas (+20) @ West
Virginia (West Virginia covers)
Louisiana-Lafayette
(-9) @ Florida Atlantic (FAU beats the spread)
Boise State (-8.5) @
Nevada (Boise State covers)
Cincinnati (-4.5) @
Connecticut (Cincinnati covers)
New Mexico State (+13)
@ Texas State (Texas State covers)
Pittsburgh (-6) @ South
Florida (Pittsburgh covers)
South Alabama (+6) @
Hawaii (Hawaii covers)
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