Wednesday, December 19, 2012

The NFL Blog: 2012 Power Rankings (After Week 15)



Power Rankings After Week 15

1. San Francisco 10-3-1 (4th)
2. New England 10-4 (1st)
3. Green Bay 10-4 (2nd)
4. Atlanta 12-2 (6th)
5. Houston 12-2 (5th)
6. Denver 11-3 (7th)
7. Seattle 9-5 (8th)
8. New York Giants 8-6 (3rd)
9. Washington 8-6 (9th)
10. Baltimore 9-5 (10th)
11. Indianapolis 9-5 (11th)
12. Chicago 8-6 (12th)
13. Pittsburgh 7-7 (14th)
14. Cincinnati 8-6 (15th)
15. Minnesota 8-6 (16th)
16. Dallas 8-6 (17th)
17. New Orleans 6-8 (18th)
18. Miami 6-8 (21st)
19. Tampa Bay 6-8 (13th)
20. St. Louis 6-7-1 (19th)
21. Cleveland 5-9 (23rd)
22. Carolina 5-9 (25th)
23. Buffalo 5-9 (24th)
24. Tennessee 5-9 (27th)
25. New York Jets 6-8 (20th)
26. Detroit 4-10 (22nd)
27. San Diego 5-9 (26th)
28. Jacksonville 2-12 (28th)
29. Philadelphia 4-10 (29th)
30. Oakland 4-10 (30th)
31. Arizona 5-9 (32nd)
32. Kansas City 2-12 (31st)

Comments: It was yet another week of serious change within my power rankings. 24 of 32 spots experienced change this week; down from 26 the week before, but still a good deal of change. 15 teams moved up at least 1 spot in the rankings, with 6 of those teams climbing more than 1 spot. 9 teams fell at least 1 spot in the rankings, with 4 of those teams dropping more than 1 spot. 

Amazingly, I have a new #1 team yet again this week. The 49ers held on to beat the Patriots on the road Sunday night, and they moved up 3 spots from #4 to take over the top spot in my rankings. San Fran is the fifth different team to hold the top spot in my rankings over the last 5 weeks and the sixth different team to hold the top spot over the last 7 weeks. The Niners are ranked #1 in my power rankings for the first time since week 5. The Patriots dropped out of the top spot after just 1 week, falling 1 spot from #1 to #2.

The 49ers were 1 of 4 teams to move 3 spots up this week. No team made a truly huge move up the rankings this week, but 4 teams did climb 3 spots. Along with the Niners, the Dolphins moved up 3 spots from #21 to #18; the Panthers moved up 3 spots from #25 to #22; and the Titans rose 3 spots from #27 to #24. 

For the second week in a row, the Tampa Bay Bucs took the biggest dive in my rankings, this time falling 6 spots from #13 to #19 following a complete and total meltdown against the Saints. 

Once again there is a new team at the bottom of my rankings as well this week. The Cardinals snapped their 9-game losing skid on Sunday, soundly beating the Detroit Lions to finally earn their fifth win. The Cards moved out of the bottom spot in my rankings after just 1 week, climbing 1 spot from #32 to #31. 

The Kansas City Chiefs return to the bottom of my rankings for the first time since week 11. KC was shutout by Oakland on Sunday and they dropped 1 spot in my rankings this week from #31 to #32. 

Now that I’ve been doing power rankings every week for a few years I’ve come to understand how hard a task it is in terms of getting everything to make sense. It’s simply impossible to make each team’s movement or non-movement up or down the rankings appear completely logical each week. 

If you look at the comment section on any of ESPN’s power rankings (and one probably shouldn’t make a habit of looking at any comment section on any website) you’ll see complaints from fans of all teams pointing out different inconsistencies or things that don’t seem “fair” about the rankings of specific teams. 

What people don’t always seem to realize is that unless you basically can’t make every team’s movement up or down the rankings reflect whether they won or lost every single week (nor should you). It seems like a waste of time to even point out why these message board complainers don’t get it, but I’ll continue anyway. 

I bring all this up because this week might be the best example of that “you can’t please everybody” aspect of my power rankings. For example, 3 teams moved up in my rankings this week following losses. Of those 3 teams, surely the Steelers would get the most attention for moving up a spot following a second straight defeat. 

But the issue is that I just don’t think that the teams directly behind Pittsburgh in my rankings (Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Dallas) are any better than Pittsburgh. The Steelers just played the Cowboys in Dallas and they lost in overtime in a game that they tried really hard to give away. What I would normally do is keep Pittsburgh right where they were, however, Tampa Bay has collapsed and they simply had to move behind the Steelers, so I had to move Pittsburgh up a spot despite a second straight defeat. 

In isolation you would say that moving the Steelers up doesn’t make any sense, but I think my reasoning is valid. The problem is that if you just briefly look at somebody’s power rankings you don’t see the reasoning; all you see is this week’s rank and last week’s rank. 

Anyway, there are still only 2 teams with less than 3 losses in the NFL (Atlanta at #4 and Houston at #5) and there are now just 4 teams left with less than 4 losses. A total of 6 teams have fewer than 5 losses and those 6 teams are the top 6 teams in my power rankings. 9 of 32 teams have either 5 or 6 losses. 

Pittsburgh is the only team at .500 in the entire NFL (7-7) and they are my #13 team, ahead of 3 teams with winning records. The Cowboys are my lowest ranked winning team at #16. The Saints are my highest ranked losing team at #17. Those two teams go head-to-head this week. 

The Seahawks are my highest ranked 5-loss team at #7, while the Colts are my lowest ranked 5-loss team at #11. The Giants are now my highest ranked 6-loss team at #8, dropping 5 spots this week from #3 following the glorious 34-0 beat down at the hands of my Falcons. 

5 teams have double digit losses and 2 teams still have just 2 wins on the year (Jags at #28 and Chiefs at #32).





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