The College Football Blog: 2012 Week 15 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 7-3; Vs. Spread: 4-6)

Overall (Straight Up: 14-4; Vs. Spread: 9-9; Moneyline Upsets: 0-1)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 102-53; Vs. Spread: 74-80-1)

Overall (Straight Up: 534-162; Vs. Spread: 362-329-4; Moneyline Upsets: 29-28)

Week 14 Review: A pretty rough week for me. It would have been a bad week anyway for me because the Dawgs lost an all-time heartbreaker in the SEC Championship Game. However, it was also an off-week for me making picks. I usually do well during “Championship Week,” but not this year. 

Once again I started off on the wrong foot last week, going 0-3 ATS in the Thursday and Friday games. Saturday didn’t start off well either, as I dropped to 0-4 ATS in the big games and 0-5 overall ATS. From then on I did okay other than the biggest games of Saturday night.  

The frustrating thing about this week was that there were very few clear wins or losses for me ATS. It could have gone better but it could have been worse too. I could easily have won 3 more of the big games ATS, but I also could have ended up 3-7. 

Unfortunately, by struggling again ATS in the biggest games this week, I erased some of the progress I made the week before. One thing that gives me encouragement is that I was in almost this exact same spot last year ATS in the biggest games and things turned out okay. It will all come down to the bowls once again. 

Obviously I didn’t do too well overall ATS but at least I was able to eke out a .500 record. I lost my only upset pick, as my Dawgs came up short against Bama, but I’m still over .500 for the year in that category.

Week 15 Preview: For a few years now the Army-Navy game has been played after Championship Week and that will be the case again this year. I like it because it gives added attention to this great rivalry. Plus, it’s nice to have one final regular season battle between brothers before the lengthy Bowl Season. Hopefully this new tradition of playing the game in week 15 will continue. 

I covered a lot of the history of this game last year so I’ll do a shorter version this year and update things a bit. This will be the 113^th Army-Navy game. The Midshipmen now hold a 56-49-7 edge in the series. They have outscored Army by 329 points over the previous 112 battles. 

Recently, Navy has dominated the series, winning the last 10 meetings by an average of 24 points per game. Last year’s 27-21 win was easily the closest it’s been during Navy’s 10-game streak, and even last year the Midshipmen got up 14-0 and never trailed in the game. The next closest final spread during Navy’s streak was a 12-point game back in 2006. 

Rich Ellerson’s 4^th year as head coach at West Point has been a disappointment. It looked like he had the program on the upswing a couple of years ago but those who care about the football team have to be getting discouraged at this point.  In his 1^st year on the job (2009), the Black Knights went 5-7 for their best season since 1996. The next year Army went 7-6 and went to their first bowl game since 1996. They upset SMU for their first bowl victory since 1985 and that win gave them their first winning record since 1996. 

But then last year the Black Knights played a difficult schedule and took some lumps, finishing just 3-9. Army comes into this game with a 2-9 record.  A loss to Navy would mean their worst season since going 0-13 in 2003. 

There is some good news, however. In early November, Ellerson’s men pulled off their biggest victory in years, stunning their other rivals from Air Force, 41-21. That win snapped a 6-game skid against Air Force, and the Black Knights are in position to win their first Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy since 1996 if they can upset Navy on Saturday. They’ve been blown out by Rutgers and Temple since that win over Air Force but they will have had 21 days to prepare for Navy. 

2010 was a historic year for the service academies, as all 3 teams finished with winning records and went bowling. Last year was the worst season in many years for the academies, as Air Force was the only team of the 3 that played in a bowl game (and they only finished 7-6). Last season Navy went just 5-7, seeing their streak of 8 straight 8-win seasons and bowl appearances come to an end. 

It was in 2010 that Navy had their 7-game win streak against Air Force snapped and also saw their 7 year hold on the CIC’s Trophy come to an end. Air Force beat Navy again last year and held the CIC’s Trophy for a 2^nd year in a row. This year Navy beat Air Force, 28-21 in OT, snapping the 2-game skid. They are back in the bowls and can reach 8 wins again with a win over Army. They will also take back the CIC’s Trophy with a win on Saturday. Navy has won 6 of 7 since starting the year 1-3. They too will have had 21 days to prepare for this game.

 

 

Saturday

Game 1: Navy (-7) vs. Army (Philadelphia)    

Pick: Navy covers