Last Week: Vs. Spread: (10-6); Straight Up: (13-3)
Season: Vs. Spread: (108-93-7); Straight Up: (140-68)
Week 14 Review: I will certainly take 10-6/13-3 from that terrifying week. Nice to have stopped that mini skid of weeks not over .500 ATS.
Week 15 Preview: This is our most spread out week of the season. Once again there is a Thursday night game. Plus, this week we have our first Saturday night game of the season. So there is a game Thursday night; a game Saturday night; 8 early games on Sunday; 4 late games on Sunday; a game Sunday night; and a game Monday night. That’s pretty sweet.
We’re getting to the point in the season where you have to start looking at effort/mindset along with all of the other factors. Some teams are already going to be thinking about getting set for the postseason, although we’re still a week or two away from that being a major factor. Still, you have to wonder if teams like Houston and San Fran will be being with less of an edge knowing that they’ve won the division already (SF had it wrapped up going into last week and they ended up losing to Arizona).
Then you have to try and figure out which teams are playing for pride and which teams don’t have any pride left to play for. Which teams will be galvanized by coaching changes/rumors and which teams will go in the opposite direction. And of course injuries are even more of a factor this late in the season.
I’ve been spending a lot of time working on my college basketball predictions and on my bowl season picks so the comments are going to be abbreviated this week.
Thursday Night’s Game
Jacksonville (+11.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover
Comments: Another scary game for us Falcons fans. Okay, well maybe they’re all scary. The Jags aren’t very good, but they pulled off an improbable win over the Ravens on a national stage earlier this year, and last week they got a blowout win for interim head coach Mel Tucker. The Dirty Birds had to mount a furious comeback to avoid a bad loss last week and they certainly can’t afford to lose this one.
If the Falcons do win it will clinch a 4th consecutive winning season. When Mike Smith arrived in Atlanta the franchise had never posted back to back winning seasons. A win on Thursday would also be huge for the Falcons’ chances of making the playoffs in back to back seasons for the first time in team history.
Saturday Night’s Game
Dallas (-7) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Cowboys cover
Comments: Tampa appears to have quit on the season to some extent. There was a report that Raheem Morris was going to be fired on Monday but he’s still the head coach. Strangely, we’re now hearing that the front office didn’t think the rest of the coaching staff could handle the rest of the season without him. Sweet.
Dallas needs a win like nobody’s business after back to back soul crushing defeats. They now have to worry about keeping pace with the Giants.
Sunday’s Early Games
Cincinnati (-6) @ St. Louis
Pick: Bengals cover
Comments: The Bengals have really taken a tumble, having lost 4 of their last 5. To be fair, those 4 losses have come to the Ravens, the Steelers (twice), and the Texans (on a last second touchdown). They should be able to get a win this Sunday because the Rams blow.
Miami (-1.5) @ Buffalo
Pick: Dolphins cover
Comments: Speaking of tumbles, the Bills have now lost 6 straight. Miami got smacked last week by the Eagles and the front office fired Tony Sparano right quick before he had a chance to win another game. The Dolphins have been competitive all season but will they be up for this one?
Washington (+6.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover
Comments: The Skins should be finished at this point, but last week they nearly knocked off the Pats. The Giants pulled out a miraculous win at Dallas to save their season last Sunday night. But you never know whether or not to trust Eli and the G-Men when they are favored.
Tennessee (-6.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Titans cover
Comments: I was going to say that this is one of the last chances the Colts have to get a win. But it’s not. They just suck. Sad but humorous that Jim Caldwell’s future reportedly hinges on whether or not the Colts go 0-16. So 1-15 proves that he ought to stay on as head coach?
Seattle (+3.5) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears win but Seahawks beat the spread
Comments: The Bears absolutely have to have this game. The Seahawks have been much more competitive than expected. But this game isn’t in Seattle.
Green Bay (-13.5) @ Kansas City
Pick: Packers cover
Comments: I’m not that surprised that Todd Haley’s career as head coach in KC didn’t last too long, but I was certainly caught off guard when he was axed earlier this week. The Packers are without Greg Jennings and they are starting to talk about resting players. However, they shouldn’t have any trouble winning this one.
Carolina (+6) @ Houston
Pick: Texans cover
Comments: The Texans have wrapped up the division and their first ever playoff appearance. Will they suffer a letdown this week?
New Orleans (-6.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Saints cover
Comments: The Saints should roll, regardless of Adrian Peterson’s status.
Sunday’s Late Games
Detroit (-1) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders pull off the upset
Comments: Huge game for both teams. The Raiders have lost their last 2 games by a total of 50 points. But this week they are back home. This is close to a must-win game for the Lions, who narrowly escaped with a win over the Vikes last week to snap a mini 2-game skid. After this one the Lions play the Chargers at home and the Packers on the road, so they need this one.
Cleveland (+6.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover
Comments: Arizona has been surprisingly good lately. The Browns are perhaps the most uninteresting team in the entire NFL.
New York Jets (+3) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover
Comments: Obviously the Eagles have to win out to have even a prayer of sneaking into the playoffs. The Jets are in pretty good shape in their hunt for one of the AFC wildcard spots. But this should be one of the better games of the week.
New England (-6) @ Denver
Pick: Patriots cover
Comments: This is perhaps the most interesting game of the week. I hate to say it but it’s hard to ignore the Brady vs. Tebow matchup, even though it’s really more about Brady vs. the Denver defense.
Sunday Night’s Game
Baltimore (-1.5) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers pull off the upset
Comments: This should be a great game. Like the Eagles, the Chargers have to win out to have any kind of shot at a playoff spot. The Ravens are neck and neck with the Steelers in the AFC North (as usual). Actually, it feels like the Ravens are an inch behind the Steelers, simply because Baltimore has had several uninspiring games this season. In reality, the Ravens are an inch ahead of the Steelers, as they have swept Pittsburgh this season and would win the tie-breaker if the two teams end up tied for 1st in the division.
Monday Night’s Game
Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
Comments: This should also be a great game. The Niners have already wrapped up the division title, but they’ve now lost 2 of 3 following their stunning 8-game win streak. The Steelers are in a dogfight with the Ravens in the AFC North. They don’t have any margin for error because they have to finish with a better record than Baltimore in order to win the division.
Obviously all eyes will be on the Ben Roethlisberger situation this week. Big Ben gutted it out last week in the win over the Browns, but he hasn’t been practicing this week and he could very well miss Monday night’s game with that ankle injury. Even if he does manage to play, he will be nowhere near 100%. As we all know, Big Ben’s biggest asset is his uncanny ability to stand tall in the pocket, buy time, and find somebody downfield to throw to. He won’t be able to do that on one leg.
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