Bowl
Season Record
Biggest
35 Games (Straight Up: 24-11; Vs. Spread: 17-17-1)
Overall
(Straight Up: 24-11; Vs. Spread: 17-17-1; Moneyline Upsets: 1-0)
Season
Record
Biggest
10 Games (Straight Up: 127-64; Vs. Spread: 91-98-2)
Overall
(Straight Up: 559-173; Vs. Spread: 379-347-6; Moneyline Upsets: 30-28)
Bowl
Season Review: I don’t have too much to say either way
about this particular bowl season. I guess my main feeling is that I’m ready
for the “football final four” to get here and I’m concerned that the overall
state of the bowls will only continue to decline in the midst of the new
playoff. Any college football is still better than almost anything else. But
the bowl system could be so much better. It isn’t just the national championship
that needs improvement. The 4-team playoff should improve that portion of the
CFB postseason. But I actually think it’s the bowls—particularly the so-called
marquee bowls—that need the most work.
Nobody would argue that
the bowls aren’t strung out as long as possible. However, I really didn’t feel
like the bowls were much a part of the holiday season this year. Now, it may be
that I only notice a difference because I don’t really go on vacation during
the holidays anymore, but does “Bowl Week” even exist anymore? “Bowl Day”
hasn’t existed in many years, and I don’t have a problem with that. I like
spreading the bowls out so that we can all watch each game. But as far as bowl
season is concerned, New Year’s Day just doesn’t really stand out anymore. The
non-BCS games are the same old SEC-Big Ten matchups that we see every year. The
Rose Bowl is routinely irrelevant and at this point rather than being the high
point of “Bowl Day” its main role has become a momentum stopper. It just
interrupts the day of non-stop action. Increasingly I find myself focusing on
or having stronger memories of the games that take place after New Year’s Day.
This is fine I suppose, but we should work on the matchups to make sure that
the games are good and that they really are “important.”
I don’t know what
they’re going to do but CFB just has to do something about…well, actually, let
me start over. I’m sure CFB will never do anything about this, but I would
really like it if something were done to prevent the coaching chaos that occurs
each year in the days between the final week of the regular season and the
start of bowl season.
The situation only
seems to be escalating. You have coaches from smaller programs deserting their
teams right before the supposed biggest game of the year, in order to take jobs
coaching teams that didn’t even make a bowl. You have interim coaches, lame
duck coaches, newly elevated coaches, and of course the guy who is leaving but
decides to coach that final game (a rare sight nowadays). You have future and
former coaches watching from the sidelines.
Northern Illinois
somehow wound up in the Orange Bowl. The fricking Orange Bowl. They were going
up against Florida State for Neptune’s sake. And their head coach was sitting
in the stands with his children, watching the game as a spectator because he
had taken the job at NC State. NC State, by the way, fired their head coach at
the end of the regular season and played their bowl game under an interim head
coach.
All of these changes
not only impact the current players but also the recruits. They impact how the
bowls are played. And they make it harder to convince ourselves that these
games even matter. I mean, gosh. The Rose Bowl is so important Bret Bielema
decided to accept the Arkansas job and not even bother coaching in the Grand
Diddy of ‘Em All.
Oh well. I’m sure all
of these problems will go unaddressed and will only get worse in the future.
The matchups will continue to underwhelm. The coaching carousel will start up
again year after year. And the NCAA will probably figure out a way to make the
4-team playoff a disaster too.
There were quite a few
surprises this bowl season, at least for me. I among the better matchups, I
thought Texas beating Oregon State and Michigan State beating TCU were among
the biggest surprises (although both of those games went down to the wire).
Clemson over LSU in the Peach Bowl was another surprise. Of the lesser bowl
games, I thought SMU clobbering Fresno State was a total surprise, as was
Syracuse manhandling West Virginia in the snow.
But of course, by far
and away the biggest shocker of the 2012-2013 bowl season was Louisville’s
33-23 win over Florida in the Sugar Bowl. Anyone who saw the game understands
that it was a much bigger beat down than that 10-point final score indicates.
It was certainly one of the more 1-sided contests of this bowl season. Strictly
in terms of BCS bowls during the BCS era, I thought this was the most stunning,
inexplicable result we’ve seen.
Some people protested
that Boise State’s win over Oklahoma in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl was the greatest
BCS Bowl upset. It’s actually not even close. It may have been the most
dramatic. It may have been more hyped and romanticized and exaggerated, but in
just about every way it wasn’t anywhere near as big of a shocker as this was.
That may have been Boise State’s coming out party on a national level, but
college football fans weren’t just learning about the Broncos (that’s how they
ended up in that game). Boise State was an established WAC powerhouse that was
in the 2nd stage of its dynasty, with Chris Petersen taking over for
Dan Hawkins and the Broncos going undefeated in conference play for the 4th
time in 5 years. They had beaten Oregon State by 28 earlier in the season and
they were ranked the #9 team in the country going into that game.
Oklahoma was obviously
Oklahoma, but their reputation for postseason flops was already somewhat
developed due to their stunning blowout loss to Kansas State in the 2003 Big XII
title game and subsequent loss to LSU in the NC game, followed by their blowout
loss to USC in the NC game a year later. In the previous season they had lost 4
times, including to TCU at home, and they came into that bowl game with 2
losses on the year, and ranked #8 in the country, just 1 spot ahead of Boise
State. And they were only favored by 7 points.
Finally, while Boise
State led for most of the night, the Broncos used trick plays and gadgets to
steal that game. Oklahoma had stormed back from down 28-10 in the 2nd
half to lead 35-28 with only a minute to go. The Broncos used a hook-and-lateral
play to score a game tying TD on 4th and 18 from the 50 with just 7
seconds left to send it to OT. On 4th and 2 in OT, they ran a wide
receiver pass for a TD, and then went for 2 and scored on a “Statue of Liberty”
play to win 43-42. It was one of the most dramatic, exciting, storybook
victories of all-time. But it wasn’t decisive, it wasn’t a big upset in terms
of spread, and it wasn’t in terms of national ranking. The programs had
different histories, but beyond that sort of surfacy stuff it wasn’t that big
of a shocker. Surely a lot of people thought “Oh, Oklahoma will wipe the floor
with those guys,” but it wasn’t that surprising when they didn’t.
Now let’s get back to
Florida vs. Louisville and why it was most certainly the biggest stunner in BCS
bowl game history. Florida came into the game ranked #3 at 11-1, having put
together the most impressive season in the country on paper. They had beaten Texas
A&M, LSU, South Carolina, and Florida State, and their only loss came in a
nail biter against Georgia. Louisville had barely to win the Big East in order
to secure a BCS Bid. They had gone 5-2 with several close wins in order to win
a conference without a single better than average team in it. They were ranked
#21 going into the game almost entirely due to the fact that they’d only lost
twice all year (see Kent State). The Cardinals entered the game as 13-point
underdogs.
And from start to
finish they dominated Florida. They outclassed the Gators at every level. In
fact, it was actually unforced errors by Louisville that kept the game from
being a 30 or 40 point margin. Louisville made big plays throughout the game
against Florida’s defense, and they completely dominated the Gators’ offense.
It was unreal. Going into the game, few people who know the sport would have
given Louisville a chance to win more than 1 game out of 10 against Florida.
After the game, it was hard to imagine a scenario in which Florida could beat
Louisville. That’s how big of a shocker this thing was.
Florida’s inexcusable
performance in the Sugar Bowl against Louisville, along with LSU’s choke
against Clemson in the Peach Bowl, had the SEC’s claim as the top conference
looking a little shaky at one point. It was never in great doubt due to the
fact that there really wasn’t anything like a satisfactory response to the
question of “if the SEC isn’t #1, who is?” But the SEC looked a bit shaky at
3-3, with the Cotton Bowl showdown looming, as well as the all-important
national championship game. Things changed drastically. By the end of bowl
season there seemed to be less doubt than perhaps ever before which conference
was #1.
The best part of this
year’s bowl season for me was Georgia’s victory over Nebraska in the Capital
One Bowl. The Dawgs were coming off of the heartbreaking loss to Bama in the
SEC title game and a loss would have been really damaging to their season.
Georgia also had lost their last 2 bowl games in painful fashion, with an embarrassing
loss to Central Florida in the 2010 Liberty Bowl, and a come-from-ahead loss to
Michigan State in OT in the Outback Bowl last year. This time they got a
challenge from the Cornhuskers and fell behind by 8 midway through the 3rd
quarter. But the Dawgs finished the drill, outscoring Nebraska 22-0 the rest of
the way to win 45-31 and end the season 12-2. The victory snapped UGA’s first
2-game losing streak in bowl games since 1981-1982.
As for my picks, I was
disappointed with my performance in this year’s bowl season. In the end, it
could have been a whole lot worse, but I’ve definitely done better. I ended up
doing fine as far as picking winners is concerned, but for a while I was
worried that I was going to end up having my worst bowl season ever. As always,
there were streaks and slumps, highs and lows, and a lot of twists and turns
during the long bowl season. I ended up going 24-11 straight up in the 35 bowl
games and finished at .500 ATS at 17-17-1. I only picked 1 underdog to win
straight up and I was 1-0 on ML upsets.
I actually started out
doing really well picking winners. Arizona pulled off one of the all-time late
game comebacks to stun Nevada in the bowl season opener. Just to end up picking the winner of that
game correctly seemed like a bonus, as Arizona had been down by 13 with only 46
seconds left. It seemed like a sign of good luck, as I started off 6-0 picking
winners.
My hot streak came to a
crashing halt on Christmas Eve as Fresno State—favored by 12 and one of the
teams I thought was least likely to lose—got absolutely destroyed by SMU in
Hawaii. There wasn’t a game on Christmas this year (which sucked) so I had to
wait until the day after Christmas to get that shitty taste out of my mouth.
Unfortunately it only got worse on the 26th, as Western Kentucky—one
of my pet teams all year—lost to Central Michigan--who I felt was the worst of
the 70 bowl teams this season. To make matters worse, the Hilltoppers were
hindered greatly by having an interim head coach, particularly late in the
contest, as their substitute coach basically submitted a step-by-step
demonstration of what not to do in a close and late situation. I rebounded the
next day, winning all 3 games.
On Friday I was stunned
again by one of the smaller conference matchups, as ULM (favored by 7 and
playing in the state of Louisiana) got blown out by Ohio, but I went 2-1 on the
day and at that point I was 11-3 straight up.
The next day, Saturday
the 29th, was the biggest yet, with 5 bowl games throughout the day.
Unfortunately it was my worst day of the entire bowl season, as I went just 1-4
picking winners. West Virginia getting slaughtered by Cuse stunned me and the
Oregon State and TCU losses were crushers as well. That put my record at a much
less impressive 12-7 about halfway through the bowl season.
Once again there was a
rather annoying day off between big bowl days, as there was no game on Sunday
the 30th. On New Year’s Eve there were 4 more games. My slump
continued, with USC’s unimaginably poor performance against GT, Iowa State
losing in a rematch against Tulsa, and LSU choking against Clemson. I went just
1-3 on the night. I was a combined 2-7 straight up from the 29th
through the 31st. Amazingly, I was just 13-10 straight up going into
New Year’s Day.
I have usually been
able to count on a strong Bowl Day performance and it was the same this year,
as I pulled off a clean sweep, going 6-0 picking winners on the 1st
day of 2013. That took my record from 13-10 to 19-10 in 1 day. Florida’s loss
to Louisville was the most shocking of the bowl season and that snapped my
streak at 6 straight, but I then won the final 5 games of the postseason to
finish up going 11-1 over the final 12 games. I started out winning 6 straight
and finished winning 11 of 12; in between I was just 7-10. So I finished 24-11
straight up (.686) which to my surprise was my best record ever on this blog.
In fact, it was 3 games better than my previous high mark of 21-14 (in 2010 and
2011).
My record ATS during
the bowl season was also streaky, but as you would expect, not nearly as
successful. I did get off to a good start. After losing the first game I won 5
straight to get to 5-1 through 6 games, with my 5th straight cover
coming on Washington’s close loss to Boise State.
As mentioned earlier, I
was stunned on Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas with Fresno State and
WK going down. I also caught a tough beat when Duke wound up losing by 2 scores
to Cinci after being in the game all night. Again, ULM shocked me, but I picked
the Baylor and VT games correctly. Through the 28th I had lost 5 of
8 but was still 8-6 ATS overall.
The 29th was
a disaster, as I went 1-4 ATS in the 5 games, brining my overall record to 9-10
about halfway through the games. My slump continued on New Year’s Eve. Vandy
covered to get me back to .500 at 10-10 but I lost the final 3 games of the
night to fall to 10-13 heading into Bowl Day.
Things turned around
for me on New Year’s Day but not as much as I had hoped. I pushed in the South
Carolina game when they decided to go for 2 and failed late in the contest and
Stanford somehow only beat Wisconsin by 6 as 6.5 point favorites. I ended the
day 4-1-1, brining my overall record to 14-14-1. Those close disappointments on
New Year’s Day pretty much ended my chances of finishing at or above .500 ATS
in the Biggest Games category for the year.
And then I did not do
well in the first 3 post-New Year’s stand-alone games. I didn’t come close to
covering on any of them, and at 14-17-1 with just 3 games left, I had no shot
at a winning record ATS for the bowl season and needed to win the final 3 just
to avoid finishing under .500. Fortunately I was able to pull it off, winning
all 3 to end up 17-17-1 ATS in the bowls (.500). That’s my worst record since
2009 and only the 2nd time on this blog that I haven’t been over
.500 ATS during bowl season.
I only had 1 ML upset
pick during this bowl season and I got it, with Northwestern beating
Mississippi State fairly easily. It’s a bit different when you only pick 1 game,
but the 1-0 record (1.000) is technically my best mark ever picking ML upsets
during bowl season.
I have once again
included my records during bowl season for the 5 years that I’ve been writing this
blog. As I always mention, this part (if not this entire website) is probably
just for me.
2008 Bowl Season
Straight Up: 19-15
(.559)
ATS: 18-15-1 (.545)
ML: 3-3 (.500)
2009 Bowl Season
Straight Up: 18-16
(.529)
ATS: 16-18 (.471)
ML: 4-3 (.571)
2010 Bowl Season
Straight Up: 21-14
(.600)
ATS: 19-14-2 (.576)
ML: 0-3 (.000)
2011 Bowl Season
Straight Up: 21-14
(.600)
ATS: 18-17 (.514)
ML: 0-5 (.000)
2012 Bowl Season
Straight Up: 24-11
(.686)
ATS: 17-17-1 (.500)
ML: 1-0 (1.000)
Season
Review: Well I’d have to say that all-in-all it was another
decent year for me making picks on college football. As a nice surprise, all of
my math checked out this season so I didn’t have any surprises one way or the
other.
Overall this season I
was 559-173 straight up (.764), my best mark yet in that category. I was .028
better than last season and .022 better than my previous best from 2010.
Overall ATS is the main
number I pay attention to and this year I ended up 379-347-6 (.522) to set a new
personal best. I was .011 better than last year and .010 better than my
previous best mark from 2010. This was the 3rd straight season I was
over .500 overall ATS.
In the Biggest Games category
I went 127-64 straight up (.665); .009 better than last year but not my best
ever.
My worst category
continues to be picking ATS in the Biggest Games. I was just 91-98-2 in that
category this season (.481); down .005 from last year. This was my worst season
in that category since 2009 and the 2nd straight under .500.
This was a rather good
year for me picking moneyline upsets. I was 30-28 on the season (.517), setting
a new personal best mark, .017 better than last year. It should be noted that
my standards for which games count as upsets has relaxed much since the first
year of this blog. While I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, I would
suspect that I didn’t count teams that were slight underdogs. Thus, my 21-22
mark from 2008 is probably more impressive than this year’s 30-28 record.
Once again I made picks
in 16 different segments this season (15 regular season weeks and bowl season).
Week 15 was again a little different because there was only 1 game and only 1
big game. There were 25 Biggest Games in week 13 due to rivalry week and 35
Biggest Games during the bowl season.
Picking the Biggest
Games straight up I was 11-1-4 over the 16 segments: over .500 in 11 segments;
under .500 in 1 segment; and at .500 in 4 segments. Other than week 15 (when I
went 1-0) my best weeks picking the Biggest Games straight up was week 5 and
week 11 when I went 9-1 (.900). My worst week was week 2 when I went just 3-7
(.300). My best streak for this category was 4 straight segments over .500 from
week 13 through bowl season. I never had consecutive segments of .500 or worse
in this category.
Picking ATS in the
Biggest Games was by far my worst category this season. I was just 4-8-4 in 16
segments: over .500 in 4 segments; under .500 in 8 segments; and at .500 in 4
segments. My best week in this category was week 8 when I was 7-3 (.700). Other
than week 15 (when I was 0-1), my worst record in this category was in week 2
and week 4 when I was just 3-7 (.300). I was never over .500 in consecutive
segments for this category. I did post 3 straight non-losing segments in this
category from week 11 through week 13. I had back to back losing segments on 3 separate
occasions. I also had 4 straight non-winning segments from week 4 through week
7.
Overall straight up I
was over .500 in all 16 segments. Other than week 15 (when I was 1-0), my best
segment picking winners overall was week 8 when I was 47-9 (.839). My worst
record in this category came in the bowl season when I was just 24-11 (.686).
In the main category,
overall ATS, I was 7-7-2 over the 16 segments: over .500 in 7 segments; under
.500 in 7 segments; and at .500 in 2 segments. My best mark was in week 7 when I
was 35-19 overall ATS (.648). Other than week 15 (when I was 0-1), my worst
segment was week 4 when I was just 20-29 overall ATS (.408). My hottest stretch
came from week 6 through week 8 when I posted 3 consecutive segments over .500.
I did have back to back segments under .500 twice. And I finished the year with
3 straight non-winning segments in this category.
I only made ML upset
picks in 15 segments, declining to pick a straight up upset winner in week 15.
During the 15 segments I was 6-6-3: over .500 in 6 segments; under .500 in 6
segments; and at .500 in 6 segments. My best record came in bowl season when I
was 1-0 picking upsets (1.000). My worst mark came in week 3 and week 14 when I
went 0-1 in this area (.000). I had back to back winning segments twice. I also
had consecutive segments under .500 in this category twice. I began the season
with 4 straight non-winning segments in this category.
My best overall segment
this season was a bit tough because I never really had 1 week when I was super
in every area. I will go with week 8 when I was 8-2 in the biggest games
straight up (.800); 7-3 in the biggest games ATS (.700); 47-9 overall straight
up (.839); 29-26-1 overall ATS (.527); and 3-1 picking ML upsets (.750).
My worst segment
overall had to be week 2. I was just 3-7 straight up in the biggest games; 3-7
ATS in the biggest games; 31-14 overall straight up (.689); 21-24 overall ATS
(.467); and 1-1 on ML upsets (.500).
Again, for anyone
interested, I have listed my records for the 5 years I’ve made picks on this
website, although I have only been using this exact format for the last 3
years.
2008
Biggest 10 Games (ATS):
91-110-2 (.453)
ML: 21-22 (.488)
2009
Biggest 10 Games (ATS):
74-114-5 (.394)
ML: 18-32 (.360)
2010
Biggest 10 Games
(Straight Up): 132-59 (.691)
Biggest 10 Games (ATS):
96-89-9 (.519)
Overall Straight Up: 533-185
(.742)
Overall ATS: 361-344-13
(.512)
ML: 18-31 (.367)
2011
Biggest 10 Games
(Straight Up): 122-64 (.656)
Biggest 10 Games (ATS):
89-94-3 (.486)
Overall Straight Up:
526-189 (.736)
Overall ATS: 361-346-8
(.511)
ML: 23-23 (.500)
2012
Biggest 10 Games
(Straight Up): 127-64 (.665)
Biggest 10 Games (ATS):
91-98-2 (.481)
Overall Straight Up:
559-173 (.764)
Overall ATS: 379-347-6
(.522)
ML: 30-28 (.517)
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