Last
Week’s Record
Biggest
10 Games (Straight Up: 7-3; Vs. Spread: 4-6)
Overall
(Straight
Up: 44-10; Vs. Spread: 35-19; Moneyline Upsets: 3-3)
Season
Record
Biggest
10 Games (Straight Up: 44-26; Vs. Spread: 29-41)
Overall
(Straight
Up: 260-81; Vs. Spread: 182-159; Moneyline Upsets: 12-14)
Week
7 Review: I had a pretty good week. It did help that my team
was off and therefore couldn’t be humiliated on national television.
I had a much better
week picking winners overall, but that category only feels like a big deal when
I don’t do so well. I pick so few underdogs to win straight up that when I have
a good record it feels more like “well, I guess favorites had a good week
straight up” rather than “I guess I had a great week straight up.” And when I
only get like 70% right it feels like I did really badly considering how many big
spreads there are. But anyway, 80% is certainly better than 70%.
I also had a better
week picking the winners of the biggest 10 games and that actually does matter
to me.
Most importantly, I had
one of my best weeks picking ATS overall and I once again have a pretty
significant cushion to protect against the inevitable disaster weeks that lie
ahead.
The good news basically
stops there. I was .500 in 6 upset picks but I could easily have gone 5-1 in
that category.
And my struggle picking
ATS in the biggest 10 games is starting to become seriously bothersome. The
“success or failure ATS is always luck anyway” argument usually makes me feel
better. When I do badly it helps to explain away the failure. When I do well it
helps mute the good feelings, thereby limiting the feeling of disillusionment
that will come with the inevitable return to failure following the period of
success. What’s troubling me here is that I’ve been losing ATS in the biggest
10 games for an extended period of time without ever experiencing a run of
success which would be expected if it really was just a coin flip.
I’m starting to wonder
if there’s something about the biggest 10 games that is different. It’s
possible that I over think those games but that doesn’t seem right. My best
guess is that I give underdog teams too much credit. Often the biggest games
are between two good teams, and perhaps I’m quicker to go with the “win but not
cover” compromise when both teams are good.
I’m not sure if my pick
history would confirm that I take underdogs ATS more often in the biggest 10
games and I don’t have the time to find out. More importantly, I don’t even
know if the theory would make sense even if it turned out that my hunch is
correct because theoretically the spread should even things out anyway.
What’s interesting is
that one of the reasons I began picking every game, rather than just the ones I
was making comments on, was that I used to bet on every game and it just seemed
to me that my results picking every game were better than what showed up in the
blog. I continued to separate out 10 games to make comments on so I kept
keeping track of my results in those games.
At this point it’s
really a holdover from the days when I actually used to make comments about
individual matchups every week (or at least try to). I think I can basically
say that my hunch was correct: my record ATS would look better if I picked
every game.
The bottom line is that
I’m now more than 10 games under .500 picking ATS in the biggest 10 games and
I’ll have to get really hot to have even a shot at going .500 in that category.
Week
8 Preview: Whenever I have a really good week ATS I
always feel like I just want to avoid disaster the next week. The situation
this week is no different and I’m a bit nervous because I feel like I’m taking
more favorites ATS than I normally do. I’m also really hoping for a good week
in the biggest 10 games.
Speaking of the biggest
10 games, once again there were more than 10 games that could have qualified.
Early in the season there are some weeks when I have to stretch the limits a
bit just to get 10 games. But once we reach October the schedule from
week-to-week is pretty loaded. In fact, it’s even more so now because of all
the conference realignment and expansion.
In years past I’ve
expanded the number of “biggest games” towards the end of the season when all
the rivalry games are played. “Rivalry Week” basically turned into “Rivalry
Weeks” in recent years but I still felt compelled to go over the 10 game number
for those special weeks (it also helped that in some of those years I was
looking to make up ground).
But this year those
games seem to be spread throughout the season. Next year I may decide to change
up the “biggest 10 games” format. I’ll always do at least 10 games but for the
weeks when there are 14 or 15 candidates I’ll just expand.
This week there are a
number of important national matchups as well as a slew of rivalry games. For
the first time all season there’s not a single game between and FBS team and an
FCS team. It should be an interesting week. I’m not picking as many moneyline
upsets this week because, as I mentioned earlier, this just seems to me like a
good week for the favorites. Again, that could backfire.
.
Saturday
Game
1:
LSU (-3) @ Texas A&M
Pick:
LSU covers
Game
2:
Stanford (-2.5) @ California
Pick:
Stanford covers
Game
3:
Michigan State (+10) @ Michigan
Pick:
Michigan covers
Game
4:
South Carolina (+3) @ Florida
Pick:
South Carolina pulls off the upset
Game
5:
Texas Tech (-2.5) @ TCU
Pick:
Texas Tech covers
Game
6:
North Carolina (-10.5) @ Duke
Pick:
Duke beats the spread
Game
7:
Kansas State (+3) @ West Virginia
Pick:
Kansas State pulls off the upset
Game
8:
Alabama (-20.5) @ Tennessee
Pick:
Alabama covers
Game
9:
Florida State (-18) @ Miami
Pick:
Miami beats the spread
Game
10:
Baylor (+10) @ Texas
Pick:
Texas covers
Other
Games
Tuesday
Louisiana-Lafayette
(-3.5) @ North Texas (ULL covers)
Thursday
Houston (-6) @ SMU
(Houston covers)
Oregon (-9) @ Arizona
State (Oregon covers)
Friday
Connecticut (+4.5) @ Syracuse
(UConn beats the spread)
Saturday
Bowling Green (-17.5) @
Massachusetts (BG covers)
Rutgers (-5.5) @ Temple
(Rutgers covers)
Virginia Tech (+9) @
Clemson (Clemson covers)
Minnesota (+17.5) @
Wisconsin (Wisconsin covers)
Northern Illinois (-14.5)
@ Akron (NIU covers)
Auburn (+7) @
Vanderbilt (Auburn beats the spread)
Wake Forest (+4) @
Virginia (UVA covers)
Purdue (+17.5) @ Ohio
State (Ohio State covers)
Florida International
(+7) @ Troy (Troy covers)
Army (-3) @ Eastern Michigan
(Army covers)
San Jose State (-13.5)
@ Texas-San Antonio (SJS covers)
New Mexico State (+30)
@ Utah State (Utah State covers)
Boston College (+14) @
Georgia Tech (GT covers)
Florida Atlantic (+3) @
South Alabama (SA covers)
UNLV (+27.5) @ Boise State
(Boise State covers)
Nebraska (-4) @ Northwestern
(Nebraska covers)
BYU (+14) @ Notre Dame
(Notre Dame covers)
North Carolina State
(-3.5) @ Maryland (NC State covers)
South Florida (+7) @
Louisville (Louisville covers)
Rice (+20.5) @ Tulsa
(Tulsa covers)
Pittsburgh (-10.5) @ Buffalo
(Buffalo beats the spread)
Ball State (-3.5) @ Central
Michigan (BSU covers)
Western Michigan (+3) @
Kent State (Kent State covers)
Indiana (+3) @ Navy
(Navy covers)
Louisiana-Monroe (+2.5)
@ Western Kentucky (WK covers)
Colorado (+41) @ USC
(Colorado beats the spread)
East Carolina (-3.5) @
UAB (ECU covers)
Georgia (-28) @
Kentucky (Georgia covers)
Iowa State (+13.5) @
Oklahoma State (Iowa State beats the spread)
Kansas (+35) @ Oklahoma
(Oklahoma covers)
Middle Tennessee State
(+20) @ Mississippi State (MTS beats the spread)
New Mexico (+11) @ Air
Force (NM beats the spread)
Marshall (+2.5) @
Southern Mississippi (Marshall pulls off the upset)
Cincinnati (-6.5) @
Toledo (Cincinnati covers)
Idaho (+30.5) @
Louisiana Tech (LT covers)
Penn State (+3) @ Iowa
(PSU pulls off the upset)
Tulane (+15.5) @ UTEP
(Tulane beats the spread)
Central Florida (-23.5)
@ Memphis (CF covers)
Washington (+7) @
Arizona (Washington beats the spread)
Utah (+10.5) @ Oregon
State (Oregon State covers)
Wyoming (+14.5) @
Fresno State (Fresno State covers)
San Diego State (+7) @
Nevada (SD State beats the spread)
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