Last
Week’s Record
Biggest
10 Games (Straight Up: 7-3; Vs. Spread: 3-7)
Overall
(Straight
Up: 34-15; Vs. Spread: 20-29; Moneyline Upsets: 1-2)
Season
Record
Biggest
10 Games (Straight Up: 23-17; Vs. Spread: 16-24)
Overall
(Straight
Up: 135-47; Vs. Spread: 93-89; Moneyline Upsets: 4-7)
Week
4 Review: Certainly not a good week for me. Once again I
struggled mightily picking ATS in the biggest 10 games. This is really becoming
a thing for me. It’s weird. I’ve already dug myself quite a hole in that
category. By going 20-29 ATS overall last week I used up most of the cushion I
had in that area for the year. And once again I failed to deliver on the
moneyline upsets. To be honest, missing 15 games straight up overall isn’t very
good either.
Having said all of
that, I’ve done worse. If I can bounce back this week I’ll be fine. And if last
week ends up being my worst week of the season I’ll be very happy.
Week
5 Preview: Last week was more about the surprises
than it was about the handful of marquee matchups, which once again turned out
to be mostly uncompetitive. This week there are a few sexy matchups but they
are perhaps not as big as they looked in August. There are several rivalry
games mixed into my biggest 10 games this week.
One trend I’ve noticed
so far this season is a very high percentage of the most intriguing matchups
taking place at night. I realize that scheduling big games for primetime and
later is nothing new to college football. I guess it would be more accurate to
say that I’ve noticed a trend of almost zero big top shelf matchups being
played early in the day. The decline of the Big Ten may have something to do
with this.
Anyhow, I’d love a good
week to bounce back from last week’s disappointing result. At the very least I
need to avoid a repeat of last week’s performance, as another week like that
will have me on the wrong side of .500 ATS and in a deep hole in several other
categories.
Saturday
Game
1:
Baylor (+12.5) @ West Virginia
Pick:
Baylor beats the spread
Game
2:
Minnesota (+7.5) @ Iowa
Pick:
Minnesota beats the spread
Game
3:
Ohio State (+3.5) @ Michigan State
Pick:
Ohio State pulls off the upset
Game
4:
Tennessee (+13) @ Georgia
Pick:
Georgia covers
Game
5:
Houston (-5) vs. Rice (Reliant Stadium)
Pick:
Houston covers
Game
6:
Florida State (-17) @ South Florida
Pick:
Florida State covers
Game
7:
TCU (-16.5) @ SMU
Pick:
TCU covers
Game
8:
Texas (-2.5) @ Oklahoma State
Pick:
Texas covers
Game
9:
Wisconsin (+13) @ Nebraska
Pick:
Nebraska covers
Game
10:
Oregon State (+2.5) @ Arizona
Pick:
Arizona covers
Other
Games
Thursday
Stanford (-6.5) @
Washington (Stanford covers)
Friday
Hawaii (+27.5) @ BYU (BYU
covers)
Saturday
Buffalo (+16) @
Connecticut (UConn covers)
Indiana (+11.5) @
Northwestern (Northwestern covers)
Penn State (+1.5) @
Illinois (Penn State pulls off the upset)
Ball State (-1) @ Kent
State (BSU covers)
North Carolina State
(+3) @ Miami (Miami covers)
Missouri (+2.5) @
Central Florida (Missouri pulls off the upset)
Middle Tennessee State (+27.5)
@ Georgia Tech (GT covers)
Arkansas (+13.5) @
Texas A&M (Arkansas beats the spread)
Duke (+3) @ Wake Forest
(Wake Forest covers)
Nevada (-20) @ Texas State
(Nevada covers)
Colorado State (+15) @
Air Force (AF covers)
Miami (OH) (-4.5) @
Akron (Akron beats the spread)
Tulsa (-13.5) @ UAB
(Tulsa covers)
Marshall (+16.5) @
Purdue (Purdue covers)
Virginia Tech (-7) vs.
Cincinnati (Landover) (Cincinnati beats the spread)
Ohio (-24) @
Massachusetts (Ohio covers)
Central Michigan (+10.5)
@ Northern Illinois (CM beats the spread)
Louisiana-Monroe (-17.5)
@ Tulane (ULM covers)
Troy (-9.5) @ South Alabama
(Troy covers)
Clemson (-9.5) @ Boston
College (Clemson covers)
San Jose State (-2.5) @
Navy (SJS covers)
Louisiana Tech (-2.5) @
Virginia (LT covers)
Idaho (+24.5) @ North
Carolina (UNC covers)
Arizona State (+2) @
California (ASU pulls off the upset)
North Texas (-6.5) @
Florida Atlantic (NT covers)
UCLA (-20.5) @ Colorado
(UCLA covers)
Boise State (-26) @ New
Mexico (Boise State covers)
UTEP (+4.5) @ East
Carolina (UTEP beats the spread)
Texas Tech (-2.5) @
Iowa State (Iowa State pulls off the upset)
South Carolina (-20.5)
@ Kentucky (South Carolina covers)
Western Kentucky (-2.5)
@ Arkansas State (Western Kentucky covers)
Toledo (+1.5) @ Western
Michigan (WM covers)
Florida International
(+6.5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (FIU beats the spread)
Texas-San Antonio (+3.5)
@ New Mexico State (UTSA beats the spread)
UNLV (+17.5) @ Utah
State (UNLV beats the spread)
Louisville (-10.5) @
Southern Mississippi (Louisville covers)
Mississippi (+31) @
Alabama (Alabama covers)
San Diego State (+7.5)
@ Fresno State (SD State beats the spread)
Oregon (-28.5) @
Washington State (Oregon covers)
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