The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 6 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 7-3; Vs. Spread: 3-6-1)

Overall (Straight up: 36-13; Vs. Spread: 18-30-1; Moneyline Upsets: 1-3)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 40-10; Vs. Spread: 19-28-3)

Overall (Straight up: 188-48; Vs. Spread: 110-122-3; Moneyline Upsets: 5-13)

Week 5 Review: Mimzeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!

Week 6 Preview: This is a slow week. In fact, as you’ll see, I could not even find 10 semi-legitimate big games this week. I really need a bounce back week.

Thursday

Game 1: Nebraska (-12) @ Kansas State

Pick: Kansas State beats the spread

Comment: These teams have met every year since 1922. When I was growing up this was often a very big game, with Kansas State always trying to take that next step to becoming a national power by beating one of the great teams in college football history. The Wildcats rarely succeeded, as they’ve still beaten Nebraska just 5 times since 1969. It hasn’t been a very crucial game lately, and you could argue that it’s not very important this year either. However, this is an extremely light week of college football, and this is a standalone game between 4-0 teams from the same division, so it’s one of the biggest games this week.

This will be the first time that both teams come into this yearly matchup undefeated since 1997. That was a different era. Nebraska is trying to regain its stature as a national power. Kansas State is trying to regain national respect after some lean years. This would be a huge win for the Wildcats and a very bad loss for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska’s first road game this season was a 56-21 win at Washington. The Cornhuskers are now 7-3 on the road under Bo Pelini. KSU is 8-1 at home since Bill Snyder’s return. Nebraska is down 4 starters (tight end, center, 2 linebackers) but has won 5 straight vs. KSU.

Saturday

Game 2: Pittsburgh (+6) @ Notre Dame

Pick: Notre Dame covers

Comment: I hate that Notre Dame finds its way into the big game section each week, but again, this is a slow week. This game may not have much effect on the national landscape, but it’s actually a pretty big game for both teams. Notre Dame snapped a 3-game losing skid last week and finally looked good. A loss for the Irish at home in this game would quash any momentum they got from the win over BC last week. The Panthers, meanwhile, are greatly in need of an uplifting win after a disappointing start to the season. Pittsburgh is hurting, with their starting middle linebacker and stud defensive end on the injured list.

This game has been a thriller in each of the last 2 seasons, with Pitt coming out on top both years. The Panthers are only 4-12 against ND since 1988, but they have won 3 of the last 4, including the last 2 at Notre Dame. There had been 4 straight upsets in this series before the Panthers won last year. They nearly blew an 18 point lead, hanging on to win by just 6.

Game 3: Michigan State (+5) @ Michigan

Pick: Michigan State beats the spread

Comment: All things considered, this might actually be the biggest game of the week. Both teams are 5-0, and this will be the first time that they each go into this game undefeated since 1999. Michigan State has won back to back games over the Wolverines for the first time since they won 3 in a row from 1965-1967. Like many in-state rivalries this game is often a nail biter.

This will be the first road game of the season for the Spartans. MSU won the last game at Ann Arbor, but prior to that they had lost 8 straight against Michigan on the road. However, the Wolverines are just 2-7 in their last 9 Big Ten home games.

Game 4: Alabama (-6.5) @ South Carolina

Pick: Alabama cover

Comment: This will be the 3rd straight tough game for the Tide, and the 3rd straight game against supposed offensive geniuses. Last year’s game at Alabama was not an easy win for the Tide, but they eventually beat down South Carolina’s defense with the running game, winning 20-6. South Carolina is coming off of a bye, but the Gamecocks are just 5-5 under Steve Spurrier the week after a bye. South Carolina has won 11 of 12 at home (only loss to #1 Florida last year), but Bama has won 19 straight overall and 10 in a row on the road.

Game 5: Arkansas (-7) vs. Texas A&M (Arlington)

Pick: Arkansas covers

Comment: These two former SWC rivals played last year for the first time since 1991, and the Hogs rolled the Aggies, 47-19. Both teams are 3-1 and coming off of heartbreaking losses. The Hogs will have had 14 days off since their loss to Bama, while the Aggies will have had 9 days off since their loss to Oklahoma State. The Aggies are just 3-17 vs. non-conference BCS opponents since 1996.

Game 6: Auburn (-7.5) @ Kentucky

Pick: Kentucky beats the spread

Comment: Auburn is 5-0 but this will be a big game for both teams as some difficult games lie ahead. The Tigers had won 15 straight over the Wildcats before losing at home last season. Auburn has still won 7 in a row in Kentucky, but they are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.

Game 7: LSU (+7) @ Florida

Pick: Florida covers

Comment: This has often been an enormous game over the years, both in importance and entertainment for real football fans. It may be again this year, but last week’s results took some of the sizzle away from this matchup. The Tigers should have lost at home to Tennessee last week, and they again appear to be a program in decline. The Gators were not competitive in their loss to Alabama last week, scoring just 6 points. However, this is a huge game for both teams, as the Tigers are 5-0, and the Gators are 4-1 and do not want to lose a 2nd straight conference game. The Gators have only lost back to back games once under Urban Meyer.

Florida has won the last 2 and 3 of the last 4. In their last 5 meetings with LSU the Gators are 5-0 against the spread. The Tigers have lost their last 2 trips to Gainesville by a combined score of 84-31, and the Gators have won 9 of 11 over LSU at home. Overall the Gators have gone 40-3 at home since 2004, and they’ve won 14 straight home games since the loss to Mississippi in 2008, which was followed by the Tim Tebow speech to the media, of which much too much has been made of.

The most memorable Florida-LSU game of recent years was the 2007 meeting in Baton Rouge, when the #1 Tigers defeated the defending National Champion Gators, 28-24. It was in that game that Les Miles famously went for it on 4th down over and over, succeeding every time. That was really the start of Miles’ charmed existence as LSU’s coach, which has more or less continued to this very day (perhaps not exactly to the delight of every Tiger fan in Louisiana).

Game 8: USC (+8.5) @ Stanford

Pick: USC beats the spread

Comment: Each team is 4-1 and coming off of their first loss of the year. Amazingly, Stanford has won 2 of the last 3 over the Trojans, and they’ve won 13 of 15 overall at home. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 at home. However, USC has won 4 in a row at Stanford. USC’s downfall has been underway for some time now, beginning with last year’s 4-loss season, and continuing with Pete Carroll’s exit and the NCAA sanctions this off-season. To anyone thinking that the Trojans would largely retain their dominance throughout this period, last week’s home loss to Washington was a wakeup call. Certainly USC’s reputation with odds makers and bettors has begun to sink. Incredibly, this will be the first time in 36 games that the Trojans go in as underdogs.

Game 9: Florida State (+6.5) @ Miami

Pick: Florida State beats the spread

Comment: Speaking of games that used to mean a lot. This rivalry has lost most of its national import in recent years, but it still means plenty to the parties involved, and it almost always comes down to the very end. Miami comes into the game at 3-1, while the Noles carry a 4-1 record, but each team has been humbled on the road by a national power from outside the conference. The Canes are 9-1 at home since their loss to Florida State in 2008. There have been upsets in 5 straight games in this series and in 7 of the last 8. The visitor has won 4 straight. The last 9 games between these 2 have been decided by 8 points or less.

Game 10: Clemson (+2) @ North Carolina

Pick: Clemson pulls off the upset

Comment: I was looking for one last game to put into the big game section and there really wasn’t a great candidate. At first I decided to put the New Mexico-New Mexico State as the 10th game because for the 2nd year in a row it will probably be the single worst matchup of the entire season. But I decided that it might set a bad precedent, so I went with this game instead. This is the first meeting between these 2 since 2006. Clemson has won 3 straight and 5 of 6 in this series. In a close game like this I often go with the home team, but UNC is just 14-11 in ACC home games since 2004 and just 7-5 in their last 12 ACC home games. The Tar Heels have won 2 games in a row but wins over Rutgers and East Carolina are not that impressive. UNC is still greatly hampered by all of the eligibility problems.

Other Games

Tuesday

Troy (+3) @ Middle Tennessee State (Troy pulls off the upset)

Wednesday

UAB (+12.5) @ Central Florida (UAB beats the spread)

Friday

Connecticut (-4.5) @ Rutgers (UConn covers)

Oklahoma State (-24) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (Okie State covers)

Saturday

Syracuse (+9.5) @ South Florida (South Florida covers)

Boston College (+9.5) @ NC State (NC State covers)

Indiana (+22.5) @ Ohio State (Ohio State covers)

Illinois (+9) @ Penn State (Penn State covers)

Minnesota (+21.5) @ Wisconsin (Minnesota beats the spread)

Western Michigan (+4) @ Ball State (WM beats the spread)

Temple (+4) @ Northern Illinois (Temple beats the spread)

Baylor (+2) vs. Texas Tech (Dallas) (Baylor pulls off the upset)

Central Michigan (+23.5) @ Virginia Tech (VT covers)

Tennessee (+13) @ Georgia (Tennessee beats the spread)

Memphis (+17) @ Louisville (Louisville covers)

Bowling Green (+7.5) @ Ohio (BG beats the spread)

Colorado State (+24) @ Air Force (CSU beats the spread)

Army (-1) @ Tulane (Army covers)

Wyoming (+34.5) @ TCU (TCU covers)

Virginia (+7.5) @ Georgia Tech (UVA beats the spread)

UCLA (+7.5) @ California (UCLA beats the spread)

Western Kentucky (+9) @ Florida International (FIU covers)

Akron (+17) @ Kent State (Kent State covers)

Utah State (Pick) @ Louisiana Tech (LT covers)

Oregon (-34.5) @ Washington State (Oregon covers)

Oregon State (+8) @ Arizona (Oregon State beats the spread)

San Diego State (-5) @ BYU (SD State covers)

Navy (-5) @ Wake Forest (WF beats the spread)

Colorado (+13) @ Missouri (Mizzu covers)

Utah (-7) @ Iowa State (Utah covers)

Florida Atlantic (+3.5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (FAU pulls off the upset)

Arkansas State (-2.5) @ North Texas (NT beats the spread)

Eastern Michigan (+25) @ Vanderbilt (Vandy covers)

Miami (Ohio) (+16.5) @ Cincinnati (Miami (OH) beats the spread)

East Carolina (+10) @ Southern Miss (Southern Miss covers)

Purdue (+10.5) @ Northwestern (NW covers)

Toledo (+39) @ Boise State (Boise State covers)

Mississippi State (-5) @ Houston (Miss State covers)

Tulsa (+7) @ SMU (SMU covers)

New Mexico (+4) @ New Mexico State (NM beats the spread)

Rice (+8.5) @ UTEP (UTEP covers)

Hawaii (+10.5) @ Fresno State (Fresno State covers)

Arizona State (+2) @ Washington (Washington covers)

San Jose State (+38.5) @ Nevada (Nevada covers)