The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 8 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (6-6-1); Straight Up (9-4)

Season: Vs. Spread (53-49-1); Straight Up (69-34)

Week 7 Review: I’m satisfied with another .500 week ATS and a better week straight up. 

Week 8 Preview: This is an interesting week. There don’t seem to be nearly as many mismatches as last week. Thus, I’m resisting the temptation to take all favorites ATS. But I’m not too confident heading into this week. I don’t like these spreads.  

Sunday’s Early Games

Denver (+3.5) @ Baltimore

Pick: Ravens win but Broncos beat the spread

Comment: Something will have to give in this one. Either the Ravens will snap a 3 game losing streak and deal the Broncos their first loss of the season or the Ravens will lose a 4^th straight game to fall under .500 at 3-4 and the Broncos will move to 7-0. Both teams are coming off of bye weeks. The Broncos defense has been excellent. Surprisingly, Baltimore’s defense has not been that tough. The Broncos have made a believer out of me but I also know that Baltimore is a very tough team to beat at home. It also seems unlikely that Baltimore would lose 4 straight and that the Broncos would win 7 straight. For these reasons, I’m hedging and taking the Ravens to win by a field goal.

 

Houston (-3.5) @ Buffalo

Pick: Bills pull off the upset

Comment: For some reason I’m still not convinced that the Texans are going to win the games they “should” win from now on. And the Bills have shown some resiliency in the last couple of weeks. It’s not like the Bills have played all that well. They were out-gained each of the last two weeks. But they beat two decent teams on the road and now they’re coming home to play a team that isn’t all that much better than the Jets or the Panthers. Buffalo is playing with a backup QB but aren’t they always? Houston has won 2 straight but they’ve struggled on the road over the last few years and they were outscored 21-3 in the second half last week. I’m going to take the Bills to win it…or the Texans to lose it, whichever you like.

 

Cleveland (+13.5) @ Chicago

Pick: Bears win but Browns beat the spread

Comment: The Browns have been absolutely awful this season but I don’t trust the bears.

 

Seattle (+9.5) @ Dallas

Pick: Cowboys win but Seahawks beat the spread

Comment: The Cowboys look better now than they did a few weeks ago. They’re healthier and they’re at home. But the Seahawks are not quite as banged up now and they’re coming off of a bye this week. I think Seattle will keep it in single digits.

 

St. Louis (+3.5) @ Detroit

Pick: Lions cover

Comment: This line has been taken off the boards with the uncertainty of the Detroit QB situation and Calvin Johnson’s injuries. Honestly, I don’t think it matters that much. As long as Detroit has Culpepper or Stafford they can’t be that much worse than St. Louis and they’re at home and coming off of a bye. The Lams are awful. The important thing here is that this has to be one of the worst matchups in recent memory. These two teams have a combined record of 1-12 this season and 3-42 over the last two seasons. Detroit’s only win over the last two seasons came against the Redskins in week 3. 1 of the Rams’ 2 wins over the last two seasons—and their only road win of the last two seasons—came against the Redskins in week 6 of last season. This line really ought to be a pick ‘em because nobody deserves to be favored. But I think the Lions will pull through because they are at home and rested.

 

San Francisco (+11.5) @ Indianapolis

Pick: Colts cover

Comment: The Niners have decided to give Alex Smith the starting job again. I don’t know about that move. I wouldn’t be confident if I were a Niners fan. But I think it’s a bad idea to be switching QB’s as you head into a road contest against perhaps the best team in football. The Colts have had a more than manageable schedule, but since a close win over the Jags in week 1, Indy has covered 5 straight spreads, winning each of their last 4 games by 17 or more. I expect a blowout to some extent. Maybe not 24+ but at least 3 scores.

 

Miami (+3.5) @ New York Jets

Pick: Jets win but Dolphins beat the spread

Comment: The Dolphins won by 4 at home just a few weeks ago. I think they’ll lose by 3 on the road this Sunday.

 

New York Giants (+1) @ Philadelphia

Pick: Eagles cover

Comment: What a day it could be for one of these towns. The Giants or Eagles could win in the afternoon and that evening the Yankees or Phillies could finish off a sweep of the World Series. But this is actually a big game for both teams. The Giants don’t want to suffer a 3^rd straight defeat. The Eagles have already lost twice this season and they don’t want to lose a 3^rd game with their bye week already behind them and a tougher schedule ahead. I don’t have a good feeling about Brian Westbrook’s chances of playing in this game. Concussions are being treated very cautiously these days. I wouldn’t expect the Giants to drop 3 straight but I sure as hell didn’t expect them to lose at home to the Cardinals on Sunday night either. I’ll take the Eagles because they are at home.

Sunday’s Late Games

Jacksonville (+3) @ Tennessee

Pick: Titans cover

Comment: Both of these teams are coming off of byes. There was a time, not long ago, when this matchup meant a lot. Now it’s virtually irrelevant. And Jacksonville is actually 3-3 but hard to take seriously. The Titans are somehow 0-6 and lost their last game 59-0. Now Jeff Fisher is facing pressure from the owner to play Vince Young. If Young starts, I think the Jags will win. If Fisher ignores Bud Adams and plays Kerry Collins I think the Titans will finally get off the schnide. They can’t be that bad and they’re at home and they’re desperate. Of course the Jags won at home by 20 over the Titans in week 4 but since then they have lost 41-0 at Seattle and gone to OT against the Rams at home. I’ll take the Titans to win by 6 or so in another awful matchup.  

 

Oakland (+16.5) @ San Diego

Pick: Chargers cover

Comment: I have yet to find a formula that will predict when the Raiders will show up for a game. The Chargers usually whip the Raiders so they are the safe bet here.

 

Carolina (+10) @ Arizona

Pick: Cardinals cover

Comment: Arizona has won 3 straight and 4 of 5 and they own Jake Delhomme.

 

Minnesota (+3) @ Green Bay

Pick: Packers win but Vikings beat the spread

Comment: This is obviously the biggest game of the week. I understand why this game did not end up being played at night (or at least started at night) but it’s still pretty amazing. I feel for the Packers fans here. I’m thinking 28-27 with Green Bay getting the last laugh at least on this day.

Monday Night’s Game

Atlanta (+10) @ New Orleans

Pick: Saints win but Falcons beat the spread

Comment: There’s absolutely no reason to pick the Falcons to stay within 10 or even 20 points for that matter. The injuries continue to pile up for the Birds and they’re piling up in the wrong place: the secondary. Logic says Brees and the Saints will shred the Falcons defense and put Atlanta in a hole. The Falcons will have to throw to try and keep up with Brees and his boys and the crowd noise will make things tough on Matt Ryan. Just imagine the atmosphere when the Superdome hosts Monday Night Football and the home team is the best team in football. The traditional rival being in town will only add to the fire. But I have some stupid feeling that the Falcons will force some turnovers and come through with a great effort in response to their worst game of the season last week in Dallas. 10 points is not a very big spread when you consider that the Saints have won all 6 of their games by at least 12 points and the Falcons have already lost twice on the road by 16 points.