Last
Week: Vs. Spread: (0-1); Straight Up: (0-1)
Playoffs:
Vs. Spread: (5-6); Straight Up: (7-4)
Season:
Vs.
Spread: (135-126-6); Straight Up: (177-89-1)
Playoffs
Review: I’ve got mixed emotions about this year’s NFL
playoffs. My team lost a heartbreaker in the NFC Championship Game so I wasn’t
going to love the playoffs this year no matter what. My pet team is New England
and they got ousted by a team that I really don’t like. And that team that I
really don’t like won the Super Bowl. But on the other hand, there were some
pretty entertaining games this year. And the Super Bowl ended up being more
interesting than I expected, even though I didn’t like the final result (not
that I would have loved the Niners winning either but it would have been better
than Baltimore).
As far as my picks are
concerned this was not a memorable postseason at all. I finished under .500 ATS
which pisses me off. I also didn’t pick the winners of the biggest games of the
year and that always bothers me. I failed to pick the winner of the Super Bowl
correctly for the second year in a row.
I didn’t have a winning
week ATS in any round of the playoffs, going .500 in the first 3 rounds and
then 0-1 in the Super Bowl. I started off red hot picking winners, going 4-0 in
the WC round and 3-1 in the divisional round, but I collapsed in the final 2
rounds. After a 7-1 start, I went 0-3 in the championship round and the Super
Bowl.
I finished just 5-6 ATS
in the playoffs; my worst record ATS in the playoffs in the history of this
blog and the first time I’ve ever been under .500. My 7-4 record straight up in
the playoffs is actually better than last year when I was just 5-6 picking
winners.
Season
Review: Well I ended up having another decent year picking
NFL games. I never really got hot. Basically I got off to a good start and then
held on the rest of the way. I was slumping badly down the stretch but I got
one last really good week that clinched it. So I ended up over .500 ATS despite
having to make a fairly major “correction” to my record late in the year.
I know that all of you
imaginary readers will recall that while making my picks in week 15 I realized
that I had made a pretty significant error when calculating my record way back
in week 3. I had posted my ATS record through 2 weeks as 19-11-2 instead of
17-13-2, so I lost 4 games off my cushion with only 3 weeks left. I managed to
survive that hit.
While writing this
entry I realized that I also had an error with my straight up record. It turns
out that I just totally screwed up in that week 3 post. Not only did I add my
week 1 record ATS with the inverse of my week 2 record ATS to get 19-11-2
rather than 17-13-2; I also added my week 1 record ATS with my week 2 record
straight up to get 20-12 rather than 22-10. So at least this error worked in my
favor.
I went back and looked
at last year’s season review while preparing this entry and I realized that I
had planned to keep track of my moneyline upset picks this season. Obviously I
didn’t do that. I’m actually glad I didn’t and I don’t plan to make that change
in the future. The reason is that I think it might cause me to pick more upsets
than I would if I weren’t keeping track from week to week. I want this to be
purely which team I think will win and nothing else.
Anyway, I got off to a
fantastic start this season. I had a great week 1, going 11-5 ATS. Then after
going 2 games under .500 in weeks 2 and 3, I went 11-4 in week 4. After another
decent record in week 5 I was 11 games over .500 through 5 weeks (though I actually
thought I was doing even better due to that error).
I had my first bad week
of the season in week 6, going just 5-9 ATS. I treaded water for the next 6
weeks or so, matching good weeks with bad weeks. Then I hit a rough stretch.
From week 13 through week 15 I went 18-28-2, plus I lost 4 games off my cushion
due to the correction of that earlier mistake.
I had been over .500
ATS all year. Suddenly with only 2 weeks of the regular season left I was just
2 games over .500. But I picked a good time to have my best week of the season,
going 14-2 ATS in week 16 to basically clinch a winning record. I had a
disappointing record in the playoffs but still finished 9 games over for the
year.
Picking games straight
up I got off to a great start with a 13-3 record in week 1, but in two of the
first six weeks of the season I had really poor records picking winners. I was
just 5-11 in week 3 and 5-9 in week 6 straight up. I never had even one week
like that in 2011.
It was smooth sailing the
rest of the way, however. And I finished strong, going 25-7 straight up the last
2 weeks of the regular season and 7-4 in the playoffs. Plus, I got a 4-game
boost after the Super Bowl due to the correction of that error.
During the 17 weeks of
the regular season I was 7-8-2 ATS (over-under-at .500). I went 0-1-3 ATS
during the playoffs (over-under-at .500). Overall I was 7-9-5 (over-under-at
.500) ATS during the 21 weeks of the NFL season. This was a major step back from
last year when I was 13-6-2 ATS (over-under-at .500) during the 21 week season,
including 11-5-1 during the regular season.
Picking games straight
up I was 15-2-0 (over-under-at .500) during the regular season this year. I was
2-2-0 (over-under-at .500) during the playoffs. Overall I was 17-4-0
(over-under-at .500) straight up during the 21 week season. This too was down
from last year when I was 15-0-2 during the regular season and 17-1-3 overall
straight up.
As mentioned earlier, I
never really got hot this season ATS. My hottest stretch ATS was 2 straight
weeks over .500 (week 4 through week 5). I also had 4 straight non-losing weeks
(week 9 through week 12). My worst streak ATS was 3 straight losing weeks (week
12 through week 15). However, I had 5 straight non-winning records to finish
the season (week 17 through Super Bowl).
I posted 13 straight
weeks of winning records straight up (week 7 through divisional round). My
worst stretch straight up was back to back losing weeks to finish the season
(championship round and Super Bowl).
My best week ATS this
season was week 16 when I went 14-2 (.875). Other than the Super Bowl when I
was 0-1 ATS, my worst week ATS this season was week 14 when I went 5-10-1
(.333).
Other than the first
two rounds of the playoffs when I was a combined 7-0 straight up, my best week
picking winners this year was week 7 when I was a near perfect 12-1 (.923).
Outside of the final 2 rounds of the playoffs when I was a combined 0-3 picking
winners, my worst week of the season straight up was week 3 when I went 5-11
(.313).
Overall, my best week
of the season was week 16 when I was 14-2 (.875) ATS and 13-3 (.813) straight
up. My worst week was week 6 when I was just 5-9 (.357) both ATS and straight
up.
In the end, I finished
135-126-5 (.517) ATS overall. This is down .022 from last year but it’s my third
straight season over .500 ATS overall. I went 177-89-1 (.663) straight up. That’s
also down from last year (by .007) but it’s my second best mark in 5 years of
this blog. After going 6-5 ATS in the playoffs for 3 straight years I went just
5-6 (.455) for my worst ever record in that category. I went 7-4 (.636)
straight up in the playoffs to improve upon last year’s poor 5-6 mark.
For those who are
interested (I know, just me and the Imaginary Readers), my records for each
year of this blog are listed below.
2008
ATS:
128-128-11 (.500)
Straight
Up:
169-97-1 (.635)
Playoffs
ATS:
7-4 (.636)
Playoffs
Straight Up: 6-5 (.545)
2009
ATS:
127-134-6 (.487)
Straight
Up:
177-90 (.663)
Playoffs
ATS:
6-5 (.545)
Playoffs
Straight Up: 7-4 (.636)
2010
ATS:
131-130-6 (.502)
Straight
Up:
165-102 (.618)
Playoffs
ATS:
6-5 (.545)
Playoffs
Straight Up: 8-3 (.727)
2011
ATS:
139-119-9 (.539)
Straight
Up:
179-88 (.670)
Playoffs
ATS:
6-5 (.545)
Playoffs
Straight Up: 5-6 (.455)
2012
ATS:
135-126-6 (.517)
Straight
Up:
177-89-1 (.663)
Playoffs
ATS:
5-6 (.455)
Playoffs
Straight Up: 7-4 (.636)
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