2012
NFL Power Rankings Season Review
So this is my 2nd
annual power rankings season review. It’ll be mostly the same as last
year. That probably doesn’t mean much
unless you’re one of my faithful imaginary readers. But, anyway…here’s the
review.
Ranking
the Teams by Mean Average
Here are the 32 NFL
teams ranked by their average position in my power rankings this season. Once
again this year there were 19 editions of my power rankings: preseason; 17
weeks of the regular season; and the final rankings after the playoffs. Each
team’s mean average is listed in parenthesis.
1. San Francisco (2.79)
2. Houston (3.74)
3. Green Bay (3.89)
4. New England (4.79)
5. New York Giants
(5.32)
(T) 6. Baltimore (6.00)
(T) 6. Atlanta (6.00)
8. Denver (8.00)
9. Chicago (10.05)
10. Seattle (10.26)
11. Pittsburgh (11.84)
12. Washington (14.68)
13. Dallas (15.21)
14. Tampa Bay (16.84)
15. Minnesota (16.89)
16. New Orleans (17.79)
17. Cincinnati (18.05)
18. Philadelphia
(18.16)
19. Detroit (18.89)
20. Indianapolis
(19.26)
21. New York Jets
(21.26)
22. San Diego (21.63)
23. Miami (21.84)
24. Carolina (22.74)
25. St. Louis (22.95)
26. Arizona (24.21)
27. Buffalo (24.37)
28. Tennessee (26.53)
29. Cleveland (27.21)
30. Jacksonville
(28.89)
(T) 31. Kansas City
(28.95)
(T) 31. Oakland (28.95)
Notes: Once again there
was an exact tie. Actually, this year there were 2 exact ties, including for
last place.
These rankings are interesting but they are always going to be
skewed by the rankings from early on in the season.
I expected the Colts to
be one of the weaker teams in the NFL this season and that view obviously hurt
them in these rankings, as they are only 20th. Tampa is again
overrated in these rankings, finishing 14th based on a hot stretch
during the middle of the year. Teams like Detroit and Philly benefited from
being ranked high to start the season, while the Vikings and Skins were hurt by
poor rankings to start the year.
The
#1 Spot
This was a crazy year
in terms of the #1 spot in my rankings, particularly down the stretch. Overall,
8 different teams held the top spot in my rankings for at least 1 week this
year.
The Patriots were the
#1 team in my preseason power rankings and also after week 1, but Houston took
over in week 2 and held the #1 spot for 3 weeks. San Francisco grabbed the top
spot in week 5, but the Giants stole it away a week later and held the #1 spot
for 3 weeks.
The Falcons then took
the #1 spot in week 9, but the Packers moved to the top of the power rankings
in week 10 and held it through week 11. The Giants reclaimed the top spot in
week 12, but the Texans took it back in week 13. The Pats moved back to the top
of the rankings in week 14, but they were displaced a week later when the
Niners returned to #1.
The Packers would knock
San Fran out of the top spot in week 16. The Seattle Seahawks were the #1 team
in my final regular season rankings, but of course the Ravens were the #1 team
in my final rankings after the Super Bowl.
During that wild 10
week stretch to end the season, 8 different teams held the top spot. The #1
spot changed in the last 7 editions of the rankings.
For the second year in
a row the team that wound up #1 in the final rankings was never at the top of
the rankings before the final edition. Last year it was the New York Giants
making the move from #7 in week 17 to #1 in the final rankings. This year it
was Baltimore jumping from #11 to #1.
Overall, the Texans and
Giants tied for the most weeks at #1 this season with 4. They also tied for the
most consecutive weeks in the top spot, each team holding the #1 ranking for 3
consecutive weeks. The Pats and Packers each held the #1 spot for 3 weeks and
the Niners were in the #1 spot in 2 editions. The Falcons, Seahawks, and Ravens
each spent 1 week at the top of the rankings. Surprisingly, the Broncos never
held the top spot at any point this season.
This was quite
different from last year. In 2011 only 3 teams were ever #1 all season, and the
Packers were my #1 team for 15 consecutive weeks. Nothing like that happened
this year, all though as mentioned before, I did have a team making their first
appearance atop the rankings in the final edition for the second year in a row.
The
#32 Spot
This was also a wild
year at the bottom of my rankings. 7 different teams held the #32 spot in my
power rankings in at least 1 edition this year.
The Jags were the
bottom team in my preseason power rankings, but they were replaced in week 1 by
the Colts. Tennessee took over in week 2 before the Browns fell to the bottom
of the rankings in week 3. The Colts were again #32 in week 4, but the Browns
moved back down to the bottom in week 5. In week 6 the Jags reclaimed the
bottom spot in my rankings, but they would be displaced a week later by the
Browns.
Kansas City reached the
#32 spot in week 8 and became the first team to hold down the bottom rankings
in consecutive weeks. The Browns fell to the bottom of the rankings yet again
in week 10, but the Chiefs took over again just a week later.
Inevitably the Raiders
found their way to #32, taking over in week 12 and holding the spot in
back-to-back editions. Arizona had started the year 4-0 but by week 14 they
were the bottom team in my rankings. The Chiefs then moved back to #32 in week
15 and held the bottom spot the rest of the way.
Overall, Kansas City
spent the most weeks at #32 this season with 7. The Chiefs also spent the most
consecutive weeks at the bottom of the rankings, holding down the #32 spot in
the final 4 editions of my power rankings. Cleveland spent 4 weeks at the bottom
of the rankings. Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Oakland each held the #32 spot
in 2 editions. The Cards and Titans were the bottom team in the rankings for 1
week apiece.
Only 5 different teams
were #32 at any point in 2011. The Colts and Rams were each #32 in 8 weeks last
year, with the Colts actually posting 8 straight weeks at the bottom of the
rankings.
Changes
My power rankings were
fairly chaotic this season. I made 416 changes in the 18 editions following the
preseason rankings. On average, 23.11 of 32 teams experienced change per week;
up from 21.72 out of 32 last year.
My craziest weeks this
year were in week 2 and week 10 when 30 of 32 teams moved up or down at least 1
spot. This topped last year’s most chaotic week which saw 29 of 32 teams move.
Once again the calmest
week was easily the final edition, when only 9 of 32 teams experienced change.
That was actually calmer than last year when 12 of 32 teams moved in the final
edition.
Other than the final
edition, the calmest week this year was week 7 when just 15 of 32 teams
experienced change. This was a repeat of last year when the calmest week other
than the final edition had 15 of 32 teams moving.
A lot of the most
drastic changes for teams come in the first few weeks. The biggest 1-week rise
for any team this season was +11 for the Redskins, who moved from #25 to #14 in
week 1. Last year no team moved up more than 8 spots in any week. The biggest
1-week drop for any team this season was -12 for the Chiefs, who dropped from
#18 to #30 in week 2. This wasn’t quite as big as last year’s biggest 1-week
drop but it was strikingly similar. Last season the Chiefs fell 16 spots in
week 2, dropping from #12 to #28.
Team
Overviews
The following is a
breakdown of each team’s experience in my 2012 power rankings. Teams are listed
in order of their mean average position in the rankings (given in parenthesis).
Beneath each team’s name the following data is listed: preseason ranking; final
ranking; mode ranking (most frequent ranking during the season); peak ranking;
nadir (opposite of peak) ranking; biggest 1-week rise; and biggest 1-week drop.
San
Francisco (2.79)
Preseason: 5
Final: 2
Mode: 2 (x7)
Peak: 1 (x2) [W5, W15]
Nadir: 5 (x 3) [P, W10, W13]
Biggest Rise: +3 [4-1 in W15]
Biggest Drop: -3 [2-5 in W13]
Houston
(3.74)
Preseason: 2
Final: 9
Mode: 2 (x5)
Peak: 1 (x4) [W2-W4, W13]
Nadir: 10 [W17]
Biggest Rise: +3 (x2) [5-2 in W10; 4-1 in W13]
Biggest Drop: -4 [1-5 in W14]
Green
Bay (3.89)
Preseason: 4
Final: 7
Mode: 3 (x5)
Peak: 1 (x3) [W10-W11, W16)
Nadir: 9 [W1]
Biggest Rise: +5 [9-4 in W2]
Biggest Drop: -5 [4-9 in W1]
New
England (4.79)
Preseason: 1
Final: 4
Mode: 5 (x4)
Peak: 1 (x3) [P-W1, W14]
Nadir: 8 (x2) [W10-W11]
Biggest Rise: +5 [6-1 in W14]
Biggest Drop: -4 [1-5 in W2]
New
York Giants (5.32)
Preseason: 3
Final: 13
Mode: 1 (x4)
Peak: 1 (x4) [W6-W8, W12]
Nadir: 13 (x2) [W17-F]
Biggest Rise: +5 [6-1 in W12]
Biggest Drop: -5 (x2) [3-8 in W1, 3-8 in W15]
Baltimore
(6.00)
Preseason: 8
Final: 1
Mode: 4 (x3), 6 (x3), 10 (x3)
Peak: 1 [F]
Nadir: 10 (x3) [W13-W15]
Biggest Rise: +10 [11-1 in F]
Biggest Drop: -3 [5-8 in W12]
Atlanta
(6.00)
Preseason: 13
Final: 6
Mode: 5 (x4), 6 (x4)
Peak: 1 [W9]
Nadir: 13 [P]
Biggest Rise: +4 [5-1 in W9]
Biggest Drop: -5 [3-6 in W14]
Denver
(8.00)
Preseason: 11
Final: 5
Mode: 7 (x6)
Peak: 4 [W17]
Nadir: 11 (x5) [P, W2-W5]
Biggest Rise: +4 [11-7 in W1]
Biggest Drop: -4 [7-11 in W2]
Chicago
(10.05)
Preseason: 9
Final: 12
Mode: 12 (x5)
Peak: 5 [W1]
Nadir: 13 [W2]
Biggest Rise: +4 [9-5 in W1]
Biggest Drop: -8 [5-13 in W2]
Seattle
(10.26)
Preseason: 20
Final: 3
Mode: 10 (x4)
Peak: 1 [W17]
Nadir: 20 [P]
Biggest Rise: +5 [7-2 in W16]
Biggest Drop: -2 (x2) [9-11 in W12, 1-3 in F]
Pittsburgh
(11.84)
Preseason: 7
Final: 16
Mode: 12 (x4)
Peak: 7 (x2) [P, W2]
Nadir: 17 [W16]
Biggest Rise: +4 [11-7 in W2]
Biggest Drop: -4 (x2) [7-11 in W1, 13-17 in W16]
Washington
(14.68)
Preseason: 25
Final: 8
Mode: 13 (x3), 17 (x3)
Peak: 7 [W17]
Nadir: 25 [P]
Biggest Rise: +11 [25-14 in W1]
Biggest Drop: -7 [13-20 in W9]
Dallas
(15.21)
Preseason: 10
Final: 15
Mode: 16 (x6)
Peak: 6 [W1]
Nadir: 19 (x2) [W11-W12]
Biggest Rise: +4 [10-6 in W1]
Biggest Drop: -8 [6-14 in W2]
Tampa
Bay (16.84)
Preseason: 22
Final: 22
Mode: 22 (x4)
Peak: 8 [W13]
Nadir: 22 (x4) [P, W16-F]
Biggest Rise: +4 [17-13 in W9]
Biggest Drop: -6 [13-19 in W15]
Minnesota
(18.69)
Preseason: 28
Final: 11
Mode: 14 (x7)
Peak: 9 [W17]
Nadir: 28 (x2) [P-W1]
Biggest Rise: +6 [20-14 in W5]
Biggest Drop: -2 (x2) [14-16 in W13, 9-11 in F]
New
Orleans (17.79)
Preseason: 12
Final: 20
Mode: 15 (x3), 17 (x3), 18 (x3), 20 (x3)
Peak: 12 [P]
Nadir: 23 [W3]
Biggest Rise: +3 [21-18 in W9]
Biggest Drop: -5 (x2) [16-21 in W8, 15-20 in W17]
Cincinnati
(18.05)
Preseason: 19
Final: 14
Mode: 14 (x5)
Peak: 13 [W16]
Nadir: 24 (x3) [W1, W6-W7]
Biggest Rise: +6 [23-17 in W3]
Biggest Drop: -5 (x3) [19-24 in W1, 14-19 in W5, 19-24
in W6]
Philadelphia
(18.16)
Preseason: 6
Final: 29
Mode: 29 (x7)
Peak: 6 (x2) [P, W2]
Nadir: 29 (x7) [W12-F]
Biggest Rise: +4 [10-6 in W2]
Biggest Drop: -7 (x2) [12-19 in W9, 22-29 in W12]
Detroit
(18.89)
Preseason: 14
Final: 27
Mode: 27 (x3)
Peak: 12 (x2) [W2, W9]
Nadir: 27 (x3) [W16-F]
Biggest Rise: +3 [17-14 in W8]
Biggest Drop: -6 [16-22 in W4]
Indianapolis
(19.26)
Preseason: 31
Final: 10
Mode: 10 (x2), 11 (x2), 12 (x2), 13 (x2), 27 (x2),
31 (x2), 32 (x2)
Peak: 8 [W17]
Nadir: 32 (x2) [W1, W4]
Biggest Rise: +6 [25-19 in W8]
Biggest Drop: -3 [28-31 in W3]
New
York Jets (21.26)
Preseason: 17
Final: 26
Mode: 20 (x6)
Peak: 15 [W1]
Nadir: 26 (x3) [W16-F]
Biggest Rise: +3 [23-20 in W11]
Biggest Drop: -5 (x2) [15-20 in W2, 20-25 in W15]
San
Diego (21.63)
Preseason: 15
Final: 23
Mode: 15 (x3), 23 (x3), 26 (x3)
Peak: 10 [W2]
Nadir: 30 [W8]
Biggest Rise: +7 [17-10 in W2]
Biggest Drop: -9 [21-30 in W8]
Miami
(21.84)
Preseason: 29
Final: 18
Mode: 18 (x5)
Peak: 17 [W9]
Nadir: 31 [W1]
Biggest Rise: +4 (x2) [31-27 in W2, 22-18 in W8]
Biggest Drop: -2 (x3) [29-31 in W1, 17-19 in W10,
19-21 in W11]
Carolina
(22.74)
Preseason: 21
Final: 19
Mode: 19 (x3), 20 (x3), 25 (x3), 26 (x3)
Peak: 17 [W2]
Nadir: 29 [W7]
Biggest Rise: +5 [27-22 in W9]
Biggest Drop: -7 [19-26 in W5]
St.
Louis (22.95)
Preseason: 30
Final: 17
Mode: 23 (x4)
Peak: 17 (x2) [W17-F]
Nadir: 30 (x2) [P, W3]
Biggest Rise: +4 (x2) [29-25 in W2, 30-26 in W4]
Biggest Drop: -5 [25-30 in W3]
Arizona
(24.21)
Preseason: 23
Final: 30
Mode: 30 (x6)
Peak: 10 [W3]
Nadir: 32 [W14]
Biggest Rise: +7 [22-15 in W2]
Biggest Drop: -9 [20-29 in W8]
Buffalo
(24.37)
Preseason: 18
Final: 24
Mode: 24 (x5)
Peak: 18 [P]
Nadir: 29 [W5]
Biggest Rise: +4 [29-25 in W6]
Biggest Drop: -5 (x2) [18-23 in W1, 24-29 in W5]
Tennessee
(26.53)
Preseason: 27
Final: 25
Mode: 24 (x4), 25 (x4)
Peak: 23 [W12]
Nadir: 32 [W2]
Biggest Rise: +4 [30-26 in W7]
Biggest Drop: -5 [27-32 in W2]
Cleveland
(27.21)
Preseason: 26
Final: 21
Mode: 21 (x4), 31 (x4), 32 (x4)
Peak: 21 (x4) [W15-F]
Nadir: 32 (x4) [W3, W5, W7, W10]
Biggest Rise: +4 [28-24 in W13]
Biggest Drop: -8 {24-32 in W3]
Jacksonville
(28.89)
Preseason: 32
Final: 28
Mode: 28 (x7)
Peak: 26 [W12]
Nadir: 32 (x2) [P, W6]
Biggest Rise: +3 [29-26 in W12]
Biggest Drop: -2 [30-32 in W6]
Kansas
City (28.95)
Preseason: 16
Final: 32
Mode: 32 (x7)
Peak: 16 [P]
Nadir: 32 (x7) [W8-W9, W11, W15-F]
Biggest Rise: +4 [30-26 in W3]
Biggest Drop: -12 [18-30 in W2]
Oakland
(28.95)
Preseason: 24
Final: 31
Mode: 28 (x5), 31 (x5)
Peak: 24 [P]
Nadir: 32 (x2) [W12-W13]
Biggest Rise: +4 [31-27 in W3]
Biggest Drop: -6 [25-31 in W2]
