Grading the Hawks 2011-2012 Season
Another Hawks season
has come and gone. The season played out in highly predictable fashion, with
the Hawks finishing with a good but not great regular season record and then
losing to one of the East’s best teams in the 1st round of the
playoffs. Other than the obviously rare nature of the shortened/accelerated
schedule, this Hawks season was more or less the same as the majority of Hawks
seasons over the last 30+ years.
It might actually seem
like there’s no real point in even reviewing such a season, because the Hawks
seem hopelessly stuck in their current state (just as they did in the early 80’s;
late 80’s; and throughout the 90’s). But, well, to be honest, I’m feeling a
little bad about only having posted one entry in May. Yeah, that’s the main
reason. There are other more valid reasons, but I don’t feel like writing them
down.
By the way, I do take
things like injuries, poor ownership, and realistic expectations into account
when doing the team grades.
Team
Grades
Regular
Season Grade: B
Regular
Season Numbers: The Hawks went 40-26 (.606) during the
lockout-shortened season, finishing 2nd in the Southeast Division (6
games back of Miami); 4th in the East (10 games back of Chicago);
and tied for 8th in the NBA (10 games back of Chicago and San
Antonio). They were the #5 seed in the playoffs because the Celtics won the
Atlantic Division and could therefore not be seeded worse than #4.
In terms of winning
percentage, the Hawks had their 2nd best season of the last 13 years,
with only their .646 winning percentage from 2009-2010 being higher. Projected
to a normal 82-game season, the Hawks .606 winning percentage works out to a 49
or 50 win season. The Hawks SRS (Simple Rating System)--a rating that takes
into account strength of schedule and average margin of victory—this season was
also their 2nd best over the last 13 years (again, the only year in
which their SRS was better was the 09-10 season).
In terms of points per
possession, the Hawks declined offensively for a 2nd straight year,
while making a big improvement defensively. However, simply in terms of points
scored and points allowed per game, the Hawks improved both offensively and
defensively this season. In 2010-11 the Hawks averaged 95.0 points per game (26th)
and 25.8 points allowed per game (9th); this season they scored 96.6
points per game (17th) and allowed just 93.2 points per game (6th).
The Hawks had a +3.4
average scoring margin this season (6th), up significantly from last
year when they were at -0.8 (15th). The Hawks improved their winning
percentage at home and on the road this season, jumping from .585 to .697 at
home, and from .488 to .515 on the road. The Hawks posted their first winning
road record since the last labor strife-shortened season in 1998-1999.
Playoffs
Grade: C-
Playoff
Numbers: The Hawks went 2-4 in the playoffs, losing to
Boston in the 1st round. They were outscored by an average of 86.8-82.2
in the series, but 5 of the 6 games were decided by single digits. The Hawks
went 2-1 at home (outscoring the C’s by an average of 83.3-82.3) and 0-3 in
Boston (being outscored by an average of 91.3-81.0).
The Hawks took game 1
by 9 points. The key game in the series was game 2, when the Hawks lost Josh
Smith late and ended up falling to the Rondo-less Celtics by 7 points at home.
The Hawks would lose two more games in the series that they could have easily
won, but from that moment on they were fighting uphill.
Playing without Smith,
the Hawks fell to the Celtics on the road in overtime by 6 in game 3. Game 4
was the only blowout in the series and was obviously Atlanta’s worst game of the
playoffs. They lost by 22 in a game that was not anywhere near that
competitive.
The Hawks narrowly
escaped at home with a 1-point victory in game 5, but then fell by 3 in game 6
in Boston in what would end up being the final game of their season.
Injuries:
We have to take into account the injuries that Atlanta suffered during the
regular season and in the playoffs. It is true that injuries were a huge part
of the season for many teams, but we still have to look at the way injuries
hampered the Hawks when we judge their accomplishments this season.
The major injury of the
season for the Hawks was the torn pectoral muscle suffered by starting center
Al Horford. Al played in just 11 of 66 regular season games (16.7%). That was a
huge blow for a Hawks team without many better than average players and without
much depth. Al also missed 3 of the 6 playoff games and was obviously not in
top condition for the 3 games that he did play.
Everyone on the roster
other than Jeff Teague and Josh Smith missed at least a few games due to
injuries during the regular season, but Horford suffered the only major injury.
However, he was not the only player to have major injury issues in the
postseason. Josh Smith injured a knee late in game 2 and missed the crucial
final minutes of that key loss. He missed all of game 3, which the Hawks lost
in overtime. And he was obviously not 100% at any point in the series following
the injury.
In my opinion, however,
the biggest loss for the Hawks in the postseason was Pachulia. Zaza never
appeared in the series. He was dearly missed in a number of different areas.
The Hawks were short on size and bodies in the series. They needed his help
more than ever in game 3 when Josh Smith was absent. Most importantly, the
Hawks missed Pachulia’s attitude, hustle, and intensity, particularly on the
defensive end, and particularly against Garnett. I know it may sound like some
romanticized fantasy to some, but I’m telling you, Pachulia would have had a
huge impact on the series.
Overall
Season Grade: B-
Bottom
Line: For some fans, this grade may seem a little harsh.
The Hawks finished with the 4th best record in the Eastern
Conference, despite losing Al Horford for virtually the entire season. Injuries
also hurt the team during the playoffs, with Horford missing the first 3 games;
Josh Smith missing the end of game 2 and all of game 3; and Zaza Pachulia
missing the entire series.
They lost in 6 games to
one of the best teams in the NBA, and 3 of the 4 games they lost went down to
the wire and could easily have gone the other way. In addition, the team they
lost to in the 1st round has at least 3 Hall-of-Famers on the
roster, and also happens to be either the greatest or the second greatest NBA
franchise of all-time, depending on what side of the Lakers/Celtics argument you
come down on.
For other fans,
however, this grade may not seem harsh enough. Regardless of injuries, the team
simply did not make any progress this season towards being regarded as anything
more than a better than average team that doesn’t scare anyone. Actually, you could make the case that the
team took a step back in terms of becoming a serious contender.
Last year the Hawks
entered the playoffs as the #5 seed in the East. They knocked off the favored
Orlando Magic in 6 games in the 1st round, before losing in 6 games
to the #1 seed Bulls in the 2nd round. This year the Hawks once
again entered the playoffs as the #5 seed, but this time they lost to the
Celtics in 6 games in the 1st round. That ended the Hawks modest
streak of reaching the 2nd round in 3 consecutive seasons.
If you want to judge a
team purely on how far they advance in the playoffs, you could actually go a
step further, and say that this Hawks season wasn’t even as good as 2007-2008,
for the Hawks lasted 7 games in the 1st round against Boston that
year.
I wouldn’t go that far.
In fact, I have a hard time saying that just because this Hawks team had the
misfortune of going up against Boston in the 1st round they weren’t
as good as the 08-09 and 09-10 teams that won 1st round series. But
the bottom line remains that this team once again fell short of becoming a true
contender.
I’m not even talking
about contending for a championship, by the way. It would have been absolutely
glorious if this Hawks team had somehow or another morphed into something
totally different, and in one year gone from perennial also-ran to the best
team in the NBA. But it would be no exaggeration to say that such a transformation
would be regarded as a sports miracle.
For me, the logical and
realistic (or at least it should be
realistic) goal for this franchise is to reach the conference finals. Assuming
that we don’t go from pretender to champion overnight, the next step we should
be shooting for is to make the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Atlanta Hawks have
never reached the conference finals. That is both an astonishing and embarrassing
little factoid. In many ways, it is similar to the “never had consecutive
winning seasons” millstone that the Falcons recently buried. In the NBA, where
16 of the 30 teams make the playoffs each season, posting a winning record and
simply making the postseason is not as great a thing as it is in the NFL, so
never reaching the 3rd round of the playoffs is comparable.
The Hawks have gotten
back to respectability and they’ve maintained a level of decency for a few
years now. It’s time to take that next step; or at least, that’s what the aim
should be. We don’t have to say that anything less is a total failure, but we
simply cannot call anything less a success at this point.
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