Bowl Season Record
Biggest 35 Games (Straight Up: 21-14; Vs. Spread: 18-17)
Overall (Straight Up: 21-14; Vs. Spread: 18-17; Moneyline Upsets: 0-5)
Season Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 122-64; Vs. Spread: 89-94-3)
Overall (Straight Up: 526-189; Vs. Spread: 361-346-8; Moneyline Upsets: 23-23)
Bowl Season Review: This wasn’t my favorite bowl season of all-time. It wasn’t my least favorite either. I thought (or at least it felt like) the bowls were more competitive on the whole this season. Even the BCS games were mostly competitive.
I also felt like there were far fewer boring games this season and that was perhaps because of all of the offense. By the end of the bowl season all of that offense had gotten to be a bit much. But I guess most audiences would rather see a 56-42 game than a 20-6 game. At least there weren’t too many total garbage games this bowl season.
But there was still plenty for me to complain about. For starters, we didn’t get to see Boise State or TCU matched up against anyone of note. And even though I thought the 2 best teams wound up in the BCS title game, it took the drama away for me.
I really wish Alabama had played Oklahoma State and LSU had played Stanford. They would have shutdown those offenses and everyone would have had to be quiet for at least a few months. Instead, all of the bitching and moaning will continue unchecked.
Plus, like I said, there wasn’t any drama in the title game for me. I felt LSU and Bama were both worthy of the title and it just didn’t matter to me at all who won. Seriously, I was bored with that game from the start.
The one-sided FG fest didn’t help matters. Don’t get me wrong: I could care less about flash and high scores. But it felt like LSU never really came out for the opening bell.
Finally, my team, blew a big lead; blew a late lead; and then blew a chance to win in overtime, before finally losing in the 3rd overtime period to Michigan State. It was not only a frustrating and heartbreaking loss; it was a terrible way to end the season. That was UGA’s final chance to beat a legitimately good team this season and they failed. So that was a bummer.
And then there was the way the bowl season ended for me in terms of my picks. The bowl season has always been a roller coaster ride for me since I’ve been making my picks on this blog. But in the past I’ve always finished strong. This year I started out slow but then it looked like I was in position to have a very good finish to the year. Then I went on a major skid over the final week and ended up having a fairly average bowl season picking games.
In the end I went 21-14 straight up in the bowl games (.600), equaling my record picking winners in the bowl games from last season. I went just 18-17 ATS in the bowl games (.514); significantly down from last year’s 19-14-2 mark.
As for picking upsets, the bowl season was a disaster. I was 5 games over .500 in that department going into the bowl season. I ended up picking 5 underdogs to win straight up, knowing that as long as 1 of those teams pulled it off I would be over .500 picking upsets for the season. I went 0-5 picking upsets this bowl season, after going 0-3 last year.
I didn’t get off to a very good start picking winners. After getting the win in the first game I lost the next 3 in a row. That rough spell didn’t last too long, however, as I then got 5 straight winners correct and 9 of the next 10.
Through the Alamo Bowl I was 10-4 straight up. But then I split 4 games on the 30th and lost 3 of 5 on New Year’s Eve. Thus, I was just 14-9 straight up heading into “New Year’s Day,” which was actually January 2nd this year.
I recovered to pick 5 of the 6 winners correctly on the big day (with only my Dawgs letting me down), bringing my record to 19-10. I then got another win in the first of the standalone BCS night games to increase my hot streak to 5 games. I was 20-10 straight up in the bowls with 5 games to go.
All I had to do to set a new personal record for picking bowl winners was go 2-3 the rest of the way. I lost 4 of 5, including the last 3 in a row, finishing up at 21-14, and only managing to tie last year’s mark.
The story of my bowl season picks ATS was similar but even more disappointing. It didn’t start off well, as I lost 2 of 3 on the first day, and then lost the next 2 nights to start off the bowl season 1-4 ATS. Already I was worrying about a potentially disastrous finish to the season, but a 4-game win streak turned things around quickly.
Through the Holliday Bowl I was 6-6 ATS. The 29th was perhaps the best day of the bowl season for me, as both FSU and Baylor came off the mat to cover, bringing my record to 8-6. But then on the 30th I went just 1-3. Oklahoma’s 11th hour and 59th minute cover in the last game of the day saved me from going 0-4 and made me feel better, but I was still just 9-9 ATS at that point.
I managed to survive New Year’s Eve 3-2 which was better than many others. Then I cleaned up on the 2nd. I beat the spread in the first 4 games and at that point I had won 6 straight ATS. I ended up going 5-1 ATS on this year’s version of “New Year’s Day.” Michigan’s cover in OT the next night was another win for me. At that point I had won 8 of the last 9 ATS and I was at 18-12 ATS for the bowl season.
I only needed to go 3-2 the rest of the way to beat my previous personal best ATS in the bowls. Not only that, but all bowl season I had been shooting to finish at least 6 games over .500 ATS so that I could end the year at .500 ATS in the “Biggest 10 Games” category.
However, Michigan’s win was the end of my hot stretch, and I went ice cold the rest of the way. I lost the last 5 games ATS and none of them were really even close. Clemson got beat by like 170 points or something; KSU looked for a moment like they might stay within a TD but it was a fairly fleeting moment; Pittsburgh might as well have declined their bowl invitation; Arkansas State got whipped by NIU; and LSU got shutout in the finale.
The 5-game skid to end the bowl season left me at 18-17 ATS, which wasn’t even my 2nd best effort ATS in the bowl games over the last 4 years.
Then there was my oh-fer bomb in the money line upsets. As I mentioned earlier, I was 5 games over .500 picking upsets going into the bowls, so I only needed to go 1-4 in order to finish over .500 for the season in that category.
I couldn’t do it. And they weren’t very close either. I thought I had it for sure with Tulsa, but BYU stole the game. Louisville, Iowa State, and UCLA were all teases. I had one last shot, as I had LSU “upsetting” Bama in the title game. That one too went awry.
I finished 0-5 for the bowl season; my worst ever mark in that category, even worse than last year’s 0-3.
For those interested (probably just me…almost certainly just me), here’s a quick breakdown of my records in the bowl season over the last 4 years.
2008 Bowl Season
Straight Up: 19-15 (.559)
ATS: 18-15-1 (.545)
ML: 3-3 (.500)
2009 Bowl Season
Straight Up: 18-16 (.529)
ATS: 16-18 (.471)
ML: 4-3 (.571)
2010 Bowl Season
Straight Up: 21-14 (.600)
ATS: 19-14-2 (.576)
ML: 0-3 (.000)
2011 Bowl Season
Straight Up: 21-14 (.600)
ATS: 18-17 (.514)
ML: 0-5 (.000)
Season Review: This was the first year that I didn’t tweak my format in some way. Just like last year I picked the winner straight up and ATS of every game. It worked last year and it worked again this season for the most part. Things weren’t looking so hot for a while early in the season but I ended up having a decent year.
I have to say only “decent,” which is disappointing because I thought I was going to end up having a better than decent season. And I’m not just talking about the disappointing end to the bowl season.
One good thing that has come out of these season reviews that I do for my CFB and NFL betting blogs is that I’ve been able to double check my math and several times I’ve discovered errors. Occasionally this has been a pleasant surprise, as my record was actually better than I thought. This time it was not a pleasant surprise, as it turned out that my record wasn’t as good as I thought it was.
The change was fairly significant. Early on in the season I had a terrible week ATS when I was 16 games under .500. Perhaps it was that horrid result that caused me to miscalculate my season total after that week. I ended up leaving out 7 losses, which I had to add to my season total when I went back and double checked my math while doing this recap.
So that totally blew, as I wound up 361-346-8 ATS overall this season (.511). I thought that I had set a personal best in this category, but I was actually slightly worse than last year: 361-444-13 ATS (.512).
Overall I was 526-189 straight up this season (.736), which was also slightly down from last year: 533-185 (.742).
I was 122-64 picking winners in the “Biggest 10 Games” (.656). Again, that was down from last year’s mark of 132-59 straight up in the Biggest 10 Games (.691).
Even after I had turned things around this season and was okay overall ATS, the black mark on my performance throughout the year was my record ATS in the Biggest 10 Games. I ended up just 89-94-3 ATS in the Biggest 10 Games (.486), and that was way off from last year’s mark of 96-89-9 (.519).
Despite the terrible finish, I was significantly better picking ML upsets this season, ending up 23-23 (.500). That was a dramatic improvement from last year’s dreadful 18-31 mark (.367).
I made picks in 16 segments this season (15 regular season weeks plus bowl season). Week 15 is a bit different because there’s only 1 big game and only 1 game total. There were 20 “Biggest Games” in week 13 and 35 “Biggest Games” in the bowl season.
Picking the Biggest Games straight up I was over .500 in 12 segments; under .500 in 3 segments; and at .500 in 1 segment. Other than week 15 (when I was 1-0), my best week picking the Biggest Games straight up was week 13 when I went 19-1 (.950). My worst marks picking the winners of the Biggest Games was in weeks 3, 5, and 12 when I went 4-6 (.400).
Picking ATS in the Biggest Games was my biggest weakness this season. I was over .500 ATS in the Biggest Games in 5 segments; under .500 in 7 segments; and at .500 in 4 segments. My best record ATS in the Biggest Games was week 14 when I went 8-2 (.800). Other than week 15 (when I was 0-1), my worst record ATS in the Biggest Games was week 4 when I went 2-8 (.200).
Obviously I was over .500 overall picking winners in all 16 segments. Other than week 15 (when I was 1-0), my best segment straight up was week 14 when I was 20-2 (.909). My worst segment picking winners was the bowl season when I was 21-14 (.600).
This year I was over .500 overall ATS in 9 segments; under .500 in 5 segments; and at .500 in 2 segments. My best record overall ATS was in week 13 when I went 34-19-1 (.642). Other than week 15 (when I was 0-1), my worst segment ATS overall was easily week 4 when I was just 15-31-1 (.326).
Picking ML upsets this season I was over .500 in 7 segments; under .500 in 4 segments; at .500 in 3 segments; and in 2 segments I did not pick an upset. My best mark was week 12 when I went 4-0 (1.000). My worst mark was the bowl season when I went 0-5 (.000).
Overall, my best segment was either week 13 or week 14. In week 13 I was 19-1 straight up in the Biggest Games; 12-7-1 ATS in the Biggest Games; 43-11 straight up overall; 34-19-1 ATS overall; and 1-0 in ML. In week 14 I was 8-2 straight up in the BG; 8-2 ATS in the BG; 20-2 straight up overall; 14-8 ATS overall; and 0-0 in ML.
My worst segment of the season had to be week 4. I was 7-3 straight up in the biggest 10 games and 35-12 straight up overall. However, I went just 2-8 ATS in the BG and just 15-31-1 overall ATS. I was 1-3 in ML.
For those interested (right, just me, I know), here’s a breakdown of my records picking games on this blog over the last 4 years. Recall that the first couple of years I wasn’t picking every game ATS and I wasn’t picking winners at all, so the 2008 and 2009 records are limited to ATS in Biggest 10 Games and ML upsets.
2008
Biggest 10 Games (ATS): 91-110-2 (.453)
ML: 21-22 (.488)
2009
Biggest 10 Games (ATS): 74-114-5 (.394)
ML: 18-32 (.360)
2010
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up): 132-59 (.691)
Biggest 10 Games (ATS): 96-89-9 (.519)
Overall Straight Up: 533-185 (.742)
Overall ATS: 361-344-13 (.512)
ML: 18-31 (.367)
2011
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up): 122-64 (.656)
Biggest 10 Games (ATS): 89-94-3 (.486)
Overall Straight Up: 526-189 (.736)
Overall ATS: 361-346-8 (.511)
ML: 23-23 (.500)
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