While I was totally thrilled by the Hawks’ 10 point win in Orlando in game 1 of the 2011 playoffs, I must admit to being just as stunned and caught off guard by it. As surprised as I was by the general consensus among so-called experts that the Hawks had a chance in this series, I only allowed myself to gain a slight bit of hope from it. I chalked it up to those experts not really understanding the situation. While it would be foolish to get our hopes up too much based on the results of one game, perhaps it’s time to take a different look at this matchup.
Original Statement: It’s not even worth considering whether or not the Hawks could pull off an upset in this series.
Old Justification: Hello. Did you watch the playoffs last year?
New Argument: But wait. This is a very different Orlando team.
Evidence: What was it that had previously made the Magic the absolute worst matchup for the Hawks? Their size and their shooters. They got every rebound against us and there was always some wide open shooter who would knock down an outside shot. And this was apart from the fact that we had no answer for Dwight Howard. Howard stymied our inside game, and the length and height of the other guys limited our outside game. And then there was last year’s addition of Vince Carter. Say what you will about Carter’s value to the Magic in all other matchups, but he absolutely killed us.
Thus, the Magic won 7 of the 8 matchups with the Hawks last season, regular and postseason combined. They were 10-2 against us over the previous two seasons, including the playoffs. But that Orlando Magic team that dominated the Hawks over the previous two seasons no longer exists. The following is the roster of the Orlando team that went up against the Hawks in the 2nd round last year (notes on how player left team in parentheses):
Starting Five
PG Jameer Nelson
SG Vince Carter (Traded to Phoenix 12/18)
SF Matt Barnes (Signed with LAL during offseason)
PF Rashard Lewis (Traded to Washington 12/18)
C Dwight Howard
Rest of Rotation
PG Jason Williams (Waived 1/26)
SG JJ Redick
SF Mickael Pietrus (Traded to Phoenix 12/18)
PF Ryan Anderson
C Marcin Gortat (Traded to Phoenix 12/18)
PG Anthony Johnson (Not resigned)
PF Brandon Bass
Here’s what the Orlando roster looks like now (note: only top 9 of 12 players have appeared in series so far):
Starting Five
PG Jameer Nelson
SG Jason Richardson (Came over from Phoenix in trade 12/18)
SF Hedo Turkoglu (Came over from Phoenix in trade 12/18)
PF Brandon Bass
C Dwight Howard
Rest of Rotation
PG Gilbert Arenas (Came over from Washington in trade 12/18)
SG JJ Redick
SG Quentin Richardson (Signed as FA during offseason)
PF Ryan Anderson
PG Chris Duhon (Signed as FA during offseason)
PF Earl Clark (Came over from Phoenix in trade 12/18)
PF Malik Allen (Signed as FA during offseason)
Obviously, it’s a very different team. Turkoglu has always torched us, and the Magic were never as good without him last year as they had been the year before, but he appears to be a different player now. Likewise, Arenas has always been tough on the Hawks, but he is not the player he used to be.
The Magic simply haven’t been as good a team this season as they were last year. Last year’s Orlando team finished 2nd in the East with a 59-23 record, going 34-7 at home and 25-16 on the road. This year’s team finished 4th in the East at 52-30, going 29-12 at home and 23-18 on the road. Last year’s team went 23-5 after the All-Star break, 28-16 against teams above .500, and 39-6 in games decided by double digits. This year’s team went 16-9 after the break, 19-22 against teams above .500, and 33-9 in games decided by double digits. Last year’s team was 6th in scoring, 4th in points allowed, and 1st in simple rating. This year’s team finished 16th in scoring, 4th in points allowed, and 5th in simple rating. Finally, last year’s team ended up going 7-1 against the Hawks, playoffs included. So far, this year’s team is 1-4 against the Hawks, playoffs included.
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