The College Football Blog: Thoughts After Week 3

Keeping an Eye on BCS Busters

Going into last weekend it looked to be a very safe bet that there would be a team from a non-BCS conference once again crashing the party and getting to one of the 5 BCS bowl games. I think there’s still a good chance that it happens again but it’s not nearly as likely as it was before BYU went out and got molested by Florida State at home last Saturday. Consider that BYU had already beaten Oklahoma at a neutral site. Their 4 toughest Mountain West games would all come at home (vs. Colorado State, Air Force, Utah, and TCU), where they had won 18 consecutive. The 4 road games left on their schedule would be against weak opponents that the Cougars have dominated. Their only other non-conference game would be at home against Utah State, who the Cougs have beaten 9 straight times. BYU was more than a touchdown favorite against FSU but they got ambushed and never really made it a game, falling 54-28 in a stunning defeat. I’m telling you, at the start of the night, BYU had a realistic shot at playing for the BCS National Title. By the end of the night, the best case scenario was a 5th straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. That’s how quickly things can change for teams outside of the 6 major conferences.

So BYU is out of the hunt for a BCS game. Utah has won 2 BCS bowl games in the last 5 years but they’re out of it as well. The Utes had their 15 game win streak come to an end with a loss at Oregon last Saturday, 31-24. The only other Mountain West team with a realistic chance is TCU, but the Horned Frogs could be out of it by the end of the week, as they are underdogs on the road against Clemson. Even if they get past Clemson this week, they have road trips to Air Force and BYU, plus a home game against Utah in November. On the other hand, if TCU did run the table you’d have to think they’d be a near shoe-in for a BCS game.

While TCU is still in the hunt, now that BYU is done it’s unlikely that any MWC team will make a BCS bowl this year. But for those folks rooting for the non-BCS conferences to crash the party, there was a backup plan if the Cougars fell. That’s where Boise State comes in. The Broncos have already defeated Oregon this year and they just survived their toughest WAC game last Friday night, beating Fresno State on the road 51-34. Boise State has 10 games left on the schedule and they will be double digit favorites in at least 9 of those games. The only possible exception is a game on the road against Tulsa on October 14th which is a Wednesday night. But they’ll have plenty of time to prepare for that game. They should roll at Bowling Green this weekend and the following week they have UC-Davis of the FCS at home, essentially a scrimmage. They’ll then have 11 days off before the trip to Tulsa. And it’s not like they’ll be preparing to take Omaha Beach. Tulsa has been one of the best Conference USA teams over the last 4 years, particularly at home, but they lost 45-0 to Oklahoma last Saturday. So Boise State has a great chance to go undefeated. If they get to 6-0 they are a near lock to finish undefeated and that would make them a near lock to reach a BCS Bowl.

There are 2 “sleepers” left in the BCS Buster race and they’re both from Conference USA: Houston and Southern Miss. I’m not sure that an undefeated C-USA team would get to a BCS bowl but I’d say they would have a better than 50-50 shot. Only one of these two teams can finish undefeated because they face each other on the final day of October. Houston has the more realistic shot, as they’ve already pulled off one of the most impressive wins of the season, winning by 10 points on the road against Oklahoma State. This week they are coming off of a bye and are facing Texas Tech at home. Should they win this week they will get serious national attention for as long as they stay undefeated. A road trip to SEC foe Mississippi State on October 10th will be a test. They host Southern Miss and even if they win that game they’ll have to get up for a road game at Tulsa the next week. If they get through the season at 12-0 they’ll still have to win the C-USA title game but at least that would provide them with another opportunity to impress voters.

Southern Miss has a tougher road to hoe (or is it “row to hoe”?). They barley got by UVA at home last week and it seems probable that they will suffer their first loss of the season this week at Kansas. If they were to win this weekend they would show up on the radar screen and would likely be 5-0 for a road trip to Louisville in week 6. There is a chance that their game against Houston on October 31st will be a battle of undefeated teams but they will be on the road. Their final two games are not going to be easy; at home against Tulsa and then at East Carolina. If they get through the regular season undefeated they would still have to survive the conference championship game.

Even an undefeated MAC or SBC team would have little to no chance at a BCS bowl. It’s a moot point now because there are no teams from the MAC or the SBC still without a loss. The independent service academy teams (Navy and Army) have both already lost this season and have no shot at a BCS bowl. Notre Dame is essentially a BCS conference team because of the tie-ins they have. If the Irish win out they will likely get to a BCS bowl game and they might even get in with 2 losses. But they will most likely lose to USC and they could also easily lose to Washington, BC, Navy, Connecticut, at Pitt or at Stanford. Hell, I’d love to see them lose against Purdue on Saturday.


Updating the Season Résumé Rankings

It’s still a little early for the Season Résumé rankings to mean all that much but it should get interesting pretty soon. With that said, here’s my Season Résumé Top 10 after week 3.

1. Florida 3-0 (1st)
2. Alabama 3-0 (2nd)
3. Texas 3-0 (10th)
4. Boise State 3-0 (5th)
5. Cal 3-0 (6th)
6. Cincinnati 3-0 (7th)
7. LSU 3-0 (NR)
8. Auburn 3-0 (NR)
9. Michigan 3-0 (8th)
10. Penn State 3-0 (NR)

I’m still having to rely some on preseason expectations since we’re only 3 weeks into the year but things are starting to take shape. With their 54-28 loss to FSU at home, BYU went flying out of the top 10 after being 3rd the week before. Previously #4 USC also disappeared from the top 10 following their loss at Washington. I had to move last week’s #9 team Houston out because they were idle. Auburn and LSU beat teams from BCS conferences and that got them into the top 10. Penn State hasn’t played anybody but they’ve won easily each week and they get some help from preseason expectations.

The number of undefeated teams is steadily shrinking. Many more undefeated teams could fall this Saturday. I don’t know if this year has been all that different from any other season but it amazes me that there are just 4 games between undefeated teams this Saturday.