The NFL Blog: Divisional Round Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (3-1); Straight Up (3-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (124-125-11); Straight Up (164-93-1)

Wild Card Round Review: I went 3 for 4 in the Wild Card games. I would have been 4 for 4 if the Colts had won the overtime coin flip. I wish I had gone 2 for 4 but unfortunately the Falcons couldn’t prove me wrong.

Divisional Round Preview: I have to think that it’s a little unusual that all 4 divisional playoff games are rematches from the regular season. 3 of the 4 are exact rematches, meaning even the location is the same as before. There’s even 1 game that we’ve seen twice this year already. I have strong feelings about who I think will win each game but I’m less sure about the spread.


Saturday’s Late Day Game

Baltimore (+3) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Ravens beat the spread.
Comment: Before I get into the matchup on Saturday, I think it’s worth reviewing the history of this rivalry. This is actually one of the more interesting rivalries in the NFL. Here’s some history: In theory, it’s one of the newer rivalries in the NFL, but in reality these two franchises have been waging war on the field for years, going all the way back to the AFL-NFL merger. But in present times, this rivalry has been between the last two “relocated” NFL franchises. Relocation isn’t a process the NFL enjoys. In 1982, Al Davis went against Pete Rozelle and the NFL and moved the famed Oakland Raiders franchise to Los Angeles. The two sides would fight it out in court. 2 years later, Robert Irsay stunned the sports world by moving the legendary Baltimore Colts franchise to Indianapolis in the middle of the night. After the Cardinals moved from St. Louis to Arizona in 1988, there were no further relocations until the middle 90’s when another rash of stunning upheavals occurred. In 1995, both LA based franchises--the Rams and the Raiders—deserted Southern California. The Rams moved to St. Louis while the Raiders moved back to Oakland. In 1996, the NFL finally returned to Baltimore, but in order to right one wrong, Art Model committed any even more unforgivable one, moving the Browns out of Cleveland and renaming them the Ravens. The move was seen as so disruptive to the League’s history that Commissioner Paul Tagliabue would eventually decide that the name, colors, records, results, and history of the Cleveland Browns would stay with the city. In the NFL record books, the Cleveland Browns’ history runs from 1946 to 1995 and then picks up again in 1999 when the expansion Browns played their inaugural season. The Baltimore Ravens have their own team history that begins in 1996. A year later, the Houston Oilers—one of the original AFL franchises—moved to Tennessee and would later be renamed the Titans. Like every other relocated franchise in professional sports that I am aware of, the Titans’ history is combined with the history of the Houston Oilers. During much of the franchise’s days in Houston the team played in the AFC Central Division along with the Cleveland Browns. The division was dominated by the Steelers in the 70’s but during the second half of the 80’s and the early 90’s the rivalries in the AFC Central were as good as and as heated as any in the NFL. In 1988, the Browns beat the Oilers at home in the final week of the season to make it into the playoffs and gain the home field advantage for the rematch between the two teams in the Wild Card round the next week. The Oilers went into Cleveland and won the rematch by a point a week later, 24-23. The two teams remained in the AFC Central as the Browns moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens in 1996 and the Oilers moved to Tennessee a year later. It was at this time that the rivalry as we know it today really began. In the 1996 draft, the Houston Oilers selected Eddie George with the 14th pick, making him the first selection of their final draft in Houston. In that same draft, Baltimore selected Ray Lewis with the 26th pick, making him the second selection (they took Jonathan Ogden with the 4th pick) of their first draft in Baltimore. The Ravens’ first season—1996—was Jeff Fisher’s 2nd season as head coach of the Oilers/Titans. During the Ravens’ first 3 years they never won more than 6 games in a season, while the Titans went 8-8 in 3 consecutive seasons (the final season in Houston and the first 2 in Tennessee. During those 3 years the Ravens lost 4 of 6 games to Houston/Tennessee. In 1999, Brian Billick took over as head coach of the Ravens and the team in Tennessee was officially renamed the Titans. That year the two teams split the season series as Baltimore had its best year yet, going 8-8, but the Titans went 13-3 to win the AFC Central. Thanks to the “Music City Miracle,” the Titans won the first ever playoff game in Nashville, beating the Bills on the famous kickoff return for a touchdown. That win started the Titans on a run all the way to the Super Bowl, where they came up 1 yard short against the heavily favored Rams. In 2000, the Titans and Ravens battled it out for the AFC Central crown. Tennessee won the first meeting between the two teams on the road, and that loss left the Ravens 3-6 all-time vs. the Titans. Baltimore returned the favor, winning the second matchup between the two teams in Tennessee, but the Titans ended up going 13-3 again to finish 1 game better than the 12-4 Ravens to win their 2nd straight AFC Central Division Title. However, the Ravens won their 1st ever playoff game in the Wild Card Round and then in the Divisional Round they went back to Tennessee and whipped their division rivals, 24-10. This was the game that turned the rivalry around. Ray Lewis would later say that Eddie George stopped running hard during this game due to being afraid of being hit or because he couldn’t take the hitting physically. The Titans had been favored by 6 but the Ravens took a 17-10 lead on a blocked FG returned for a TD in the 4th quarter. Then in the most dramatic moment of the game, Ray Lewis stole an incoming pass out of George’s hands and returned it 50 yards for a TD to put the game away. The Ravens would go on to win the Super Bowl. 2001 was the final year of the old AFC Central and the last year the Ravens and Titans would play twice during the season. The Ravens made it back to the playoffs at 10-6 and helped keep the 7-9 Titans out of the playoffs by sweeping the season series. In 2002, the League realigned into 8 divisions, with the Ravens going to the AFC North and the Titans moving to the AFC South. The two teams did play each other that season and the Ravens won at home by a point for their 5th consecutive win over the Titans. However, the Ravens missed the playoffs at 7-9, while the Titans went 11-5, won the AFC South, and reached the AFC Championship Game. In 2003, the Ravens and Titans were not scheduled to play each other for the first time. The Ravens went 10-6 to win the AFC North; the Titans went 12-4 to make the playoffs as a wild card team. The two teams met in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs in Baltimore. The Ravens were thought to “own” the Titans at this point, having won the last 5 meetings between the two teams, but this time the Titans won, 20-17, on a late field goal. 2004 was the first time that the teams didn’t play each other in the regular season or the playoffs since the Ravens’ history began in 1996. The Titans began a rebuilding process in 04, going 5-11, while the Ravens went 9-7 but missed the playoffs. In 2005, the Titans went just 4-12 but they beat the Ravens during the regular season as Baltimore went just 6-10. In 2006, Baltimore went 13-3 to win the AFC North and they beat the Titans by a point in Tennessee, a loss that would eventually keep the 8-8 Titans out of the postseason. 2007 was one of only 2 years since the Ravens history began in 1996 that they didn’t play Tennessee in either the regular season or playoffs. The Ravens went 5-11, while the Titans went 10-6 to make it back to the postseason for the first time since 2003. This year the two teams met in Baltimore in week 5. The Titans won, 13-10, to start the season 5-0, but what was most clear after this game, was that the rivalry was still alive and well. Skirmishes broke out on numerous occasions during the game and personal foul penalties played a pivotal role. The Titans were flagged 10 times for 78 yards, including a pair of personal foul calls that helped the Ravens greatly on both of their scoring drives. The Ravens were hit with 11 penalties for 91 yards. In fact, the win was a bit tainted for the Titans, in that a highly questionable roughing the passer penalty called against Terrell Suggs allowed Tennessee to continue on what would end up being the game winning drive. Trailing 10-6, the Titans went on an 80 yard drive for a TD, scoring with 1:56 left to take a 13-10 lead, and they would go on to win by that same score. Including the playoffs, the two teams have played each other 18 times since the start of the Ravens’ history in 1996 and the games have been split 9-9. This will be the 3rd time the two have met in the playoffs, the first two games being split, with the road team winning each time. The Ravens are 5-3 in 8 games at Tennessee. Tennessee has won 3 of the last 4 in the series. Though it has been 8 years—a lifetime in the NFL—there are a few members on both sides who were involved in the seminal game in this rivalry, the 2000 AFC Divisional Playoff game won by the Ravens in Nashville. For Baltimore, Ray Lewis, kicker Matt Stover, and defensive coordinator Rex Ryan are still with the team. Derrick Mason, a key member of the Titans team that played in that game, is now a key member of the Ravens. For Tennessee, head coach Jeff Fisher, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, punter Craig Hentrich, and mainstay Keith Bulluck remain with the team. DE Jevon Kearse played in that playoff game and is back with the team this season. That’s a pretty big group of guys considering the length of time between the games, the nature of the game, and the state of the two franchises involved. The Ravens are 6-3 all-time in the playoffs and now 4-1 on the road. Since moving to Tennessee, the Titans are just 5-5 in the playoffs, 2-1 at home. One last note: Kerry Collins, who is now the veteran QB of the Tennessee Titans, was the quarterback of the New York Giants when they were dominated by the Ravens a few weeks after that playoff game in Tennessee back in 2000.

Now to the present. Baltimore is coming off their complete dismantling of the Dolphins in Miami in last week’s Wild Card Playoff game. They won 27-9 for their 10th win in their last 12 games, and they are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12. They are 12-5 straight up this season and 13-4 ATS. They are just 6-3 on the road but 7-2 ATS on the road. 3 of their 5 losses this year were by a combined 10 points. Of those 3 close losses, 2 were to the Steelers (1 in OT on the road) and the other was at home to the Titans. Their only blowout losses were at Indy (31-3) and at the Giants (30-10). Baltimore is 5-4 as an underdog this year, 6-3 ATS. In games in which they were underdogs by at least 3 points, the Ravens are 2-3, 3-2 ATS. The Titans are coming off of a bye week and they are 13-3 this year, 12-4 ATS. They have won just 3 of their last 6, but they were not giving full effort in their season finale, and the week before that they smoked the Steelers, 31-14. The Titans are 7-1 at home this year, 6-2 ATS. Obviously, health is a major issue in this game. Three key Titans players, all of whom play in the trenches, are fighting injuries. And the Titans’ great success this season has been based on a great ground game, great protection, and taking care of the ball offensively, and stopping the run, rushing the passer, and creating takeaways defensively. Center Kevin Mawae, All-Pro DT Albert Haynesworth, and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch were all a big part of that and they are all banged up. They are all expected to play but it isn’t clear how effective they will be. The Ravens are in good shape health wise. This game could come down to turnovers. Will Tennessee’s defense force rookie QB Joe Flacco into mistakes or will it be the legendary Ravens defense tormenting the at times shaky veteran Kerry Collins? Despite the injury questions, I’m going to take Tennessee to win because they are rested, they are at home, they have the veteran QB, and they were the best team in the AFC most of the season. They also won at Baltimore when the two teams played earlier this year. But I don’t think the game will be decided by more than a field goal. During the season whenever it was a 3 point spread and I liked the favorite to win the game straight up, I almost always just took the favorite to cover because the chances of the favorite winning by 4 or more is so much better than them winning by 2 or less. But in this case I’m taking the Ravens to beat the spread because I just don’t think it will be decided by more than 3 points.

Saturday’s Night Game

Arizona (+10) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers win but Cardinals beat the spread.
Comment: This is the least interesting game in my opinion. Neither team is all that compelling. Not much history here. Arizona has virtually no playoff history. They are in the postseason for just the 2nd time since moving to Arizona, the first time since 1998. They are now 2-1 in the playoffs since moving to Arizona, and they are 1-1 on the road in the playoffs since moving to Arizona. Also, I don’t think either team has much of a chance to win the Super Bowl. In fact, out of the 8 teams still alive, the 2 teams that I would say are the least likely to win the Super Bowl are in this same game. Of course I could see the Panthers winning it all much easier than Arizona. The Cardinals are now 10-7 straight up and 10-7 ATS this year. They are coming off of their 30-24 win over the Falcons at home in the Wild Card Round, a result that surprised many. However, the Cards are just 3-4 in their last 7 straight up, and just 4-5 ATS in their last 9. To be fair, they wrapped up the NFC West early on and thus motivation may have played a factor down the stretch, but that rarely bodes well for a team in the playoffs. Arizona was just 3-5 on the road this year, 4-4 ATS. They were 0-5 on the road against non-NFC West teams, 1-4 ATS. The Panthers have been very successful in the playoffs in their relatively brief history. They are 6-3 overall in the playoffs, 2-0 at home. In their last two trips to the postseason in 2003 and 2005, the Panthers went 5-2. This year the Panthers are 12-4 straight up although they are just 9-6-1 ATS. They are coming off of a bye week and they have won 8 of 10 straight up. Carolina is 4-1 straight up and ATS in their last 5, and their only loss came in overtime at the Giants, 34-28. The Panthers are undefeated this season at home, 8-0, although they are just 5-2-1 ATS at home.

This exact matchup took place in week 8. The Cardinals were coming off a huge win over the Cowboys and then a bye week. Carolina was coming off a blowout win over the Saints. Carolina was a 5 point favorite but for much of the game it looked like Arizona might get a huge road win and legitimize themselves as a bona fide contender in the NFC. In the end, however, though the Cards beat the spread, the Panthers came away with a come from behind, 27-23 victory. The Cards outgained Carolina, scored the first 10 points of the game, led 10-3 at halftime, and led 17-3 midway through the 3rd quarter. But then the Panthers scored 2 TD’s in 45 seconds to tie the game up at 17-17 with 6:10 left in the 3rd. The Cardinals scored to retake the lead with just under a minute left in the 3rd, but after a missed extra point, the Panthers scored on a long bomb to take a 24-23 lead into the 4th quarter. The Panthers added a FG with 9:09 left and went on to win 27-23. So really it was a 3 point game if not for the missed PAT. Actually there were a lot of weird plays in this game. The Cards settled for a FG after they couldn’t get the ball in the end zone on a 3rd and goal from the 1 early on. The Cards scored their first TD after recovering a fumble at the Panthers’ 5. Carolina had a 1st and goal at the 4 but settled for a FG. Then on 4th and 15 from the Panthers 21 late in the half, the Cards went for a fake FG and missed. In the 2nd half, the Panthers tied the game after they recovered a fumble at Arizona’s 18. After the missed PAT left the Cards up 23-17, Steve Smith scored on a 65 yard catch and run on the final play of the 3rd quarter when it appeared at first that he was down by contact. The Cards challenged but the play was upheld. With Arizona trailing by 1 on their next drive, the Cards had a 2nd and 3 at Carolina’s 15 when Kurt Warner was intercepted at the 5. It was returned to the 49 and that set up Carolina’s FG that made it a 4 point game. The Cards drove to the 48 on their next possession but the drive stalled and the Panthers ran out the clock.

The game really could have gone either way, but that’s how a lot of Carolina games have been this year. On the other hand, the Panthers have also won 7 games by at least 9 points. Arizona has lost 4 games by at least 21 points. I think a 10 point spread is a bit much. This game is going to be played in primetime so the Cards won’t be as affected by playing on the East coast. At full strength, I think the teams are pretty evenly matched. Carolina’s strength is running the football but Arizona’s defense is solid against the run and they just handled Atlanta’s running game well last week. Jake Delhomme is a more experienced QB than Matt Ryan obviously, but I don’t think Delhomme is really a lot that less likely to make a mistake against the opportunistic Arizona defense. Carolina’s defense is really not that special against the pass or the run. Obviously Arizona can throw the ball and they are actually a capable running team when they are trying to be one. To me, health is an important aspect of this game as well. Carolina has gotten healthy, while Arizona may be without one of their major playmakers in Anquan Boldin who hurt his hamstring in the game against the Falcons. If Boldin can’t go at all it will be a major blow to Arizona but if he can at least play at 75% I think it would be a big help for the Cardinals. Arizona should be able to move the ball with Edgerrin James running and Warner throwing to the fabulous Larry Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Steve Breaston. And Arizona has other weapons. But I think Carolina will be able to shut them down at times and I think the Panthers have a good chance of getting pressure on Warner, sacking him a few times, and very possibly taking the ball from him. In my opinion, Carolina will have an easier time running the ball against Arizona than Atlanta did because they have 2 every down running backs that have shared the load all year. The Falcons, on the other hand, really had only Michael Turner who was playing the 17th game of his first season as a starter. Carolina also won’t have to deal with the crowd noise and they should be able to protect Delhomme. Arizona’s ability to jump the snap count on Matt Ryan played a big role in their success pressuring him. Delhomme may make a mistake or two but he has 1 thing that Matt Ryan did not have and that is Steve Smith. Yes, Roddy White has turned into a true #1 receiver, but Steve Smith is a game changer and a guy that can’t be taken out of the game easily. I think Carolina will stay undefeated at home and move on but I think the Cards will keep it within single digits.

Sunday’s Early Game

Philadelphia (+4) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants win but Eagles beat the spread.
Comment: Of the 4 games this weekend, this one carries the most history. These two franchises have been around since the early days of the NFL and have been in the same division for decades, playing each other twice a year. Including the playoffs, the two teams have now met 154 times. The Giants have the edge overall with an 82-70-2 record against the Eagles. They have met 3 times in the playoffs, with the Giants winning 2 of the 3 games. The New York Football Giants began playing in 1925, the Philadelphia Eagles began in 1933. The Eagles first ever game was a 56-0 loss to the Giants in New York. It took the Eagles a while to get rolling but they were one of the top franchises in the League in the 1940’s and again in the late 50’s and early 60’s. The Giants were one of the banner franchises in the NFL throughout their first 40 years of existence and they held the upper hand in the rivalry with Philadelphia during that time. At the end of the 1972 season, the Giants were 48-30-1 all-time against the Eagles. But then in the early 70’s the Giants bottomed out and would be the laughing stock of the NFL for the next decade. During that time, while the Eagles were rarely an NFL power, they dominated the rivalry with New York. From 1973 through the 1980 season, the Eagles went 14-1-1 against the Giants. The Eagles reached the Super Bowl for the first time in 1980, losing to the Raiders. From 73 through 81 the Eagles went 8-0-1 against the Giants in New York, winning 8 straight in New York at one point. From their 2nd meeting in 1975 through their 1st meeting in 1981, the Eagles won 11 straight over the Giants, including the infamous “Miracle at the Meadowlands” in 1978. After winning in New York early in the 1981 season for their 12th in a row overall over the Giants, the Eagles were 15-1-1 against New York since the start of the 1973 season and they had gotten the all-time record down to 45-49-2, cutting 14 games off the lead in less than a decade. But the Giants would finally turn the corner that season and it began with a win in Philadelphia later in the year to snap the skid. The G-Men reached the playoffs that year for the first time since 1963, and in the Wild Card Round they went into Philly and knocked off the Eagles (defending NFC champs at the time), 27-21, for their first postseason win since 1958. The following season, the Giants snapped their home losing streak against the Eagles and swept the season series for the first time since 1972. The two teams split in 83 and 84 and then the Giants went on a 6-0 run from 1985-1987. In 1986, the Giants reached the Super Bowl for the first time and defeated the Denver Broncos for their first NFL title since 1956. But after losing 12 of 14 to the Giants over a 7 year period, the Eagles grabbed control of the rivalry from 1988-1992, winning 9 of 10. This was a strange period in the history of the rivalry, during which the Eagles achieved much regular season success but very little postseason success. At the same time, the Giants were mostly mediocre but had 1 final great season in 1990 when they won their 2nd Super Bowl in 5 years, beating the Bills. The Giants broke a 5 game losing streak to the Eagles in 1993 and swept the series over the next 2 seasons. The Eagles came back with sweeps in 1995 and 1996. From 1981 through 1996 there were dramatic shifts in power back and forth in the rivalry, but the end result was that in 33 games, the Giants came away with a 17-16 edge. During the remainder of the decade, the Philadelphia Eagles would plunge into their worst 3 year period since the middle 80’s, and the Giants would hold control of the rivalry, winning the final 6 games of the 90’s. Then in 2000, were better than they had been in years, but the Giants would remain the dominant team in the rivalry, winning both games in the regular season to win the NFC East over the Eagles by a game, and then beating the Eagles at home in the Divisional Playoffs. The Giants reached the Super Bowl for the first time since 1990. The Giants would lose to the Ravens in the Super Bowl and 2000 did not end up being a spring board for New York into the new millennium. Over the next few years they would have off and on success. 2000 was a springboard into the new decade for the Eagles, as they would embark on another 5 year stretch during which they were the dominant team in the NFC during the regular season, but did not find that same success in the postseason. The Eagles would control the rivalry over the next 4 seasons, snapping their 9 game losing streak to the Giants in 2001 with a season sweep. In 2002, the two teams split the season series for the first time since 1990! The Eagles swept the Giants in both 2003 and 2004, as they won 7 of 8 over New York from 2001-2004. After losing 3 straight NFC Championship Games, twice at home, Philadelphia reached the Super Bowl in 2004 for the first time since 1980 but they lost to New England. In 2005, the Eagles missed the playoffs for the first time since 1999 and the Giants snapped their 4 game losing skid to Philly by sweeping the season series. In 2006, the Giants won at Philly for their 3rd victory in a row in the rivalry, but the Eagles won the rematch at Giants Stadium, and in the Wild Card Playoffs, the Eagles beat the Giants at home, 23-20. Then there was last season when the Giants swept the Eagles and won 3 straight road playoff games to reach the Super Bowl, where they upset the 18-0 New England Patriots for their first Championship since 1990. This year the Giants won the first game in Philly but the Eagles came back and knocked the Giants off in New Jersey later in the season. All and all since the start of the 1997 season, the Giants have held a 16-10 edge on the Eagles, and they’ve won 6 of the last 9 meetings. This is the Eagles’ 7th trip to the playoffs this decade. They are now 9-6 in the playoffs during that time, 2-3 on the road. This is New York’s 6th trip to the postseason this decade. They are 6-4 in the playoffs during that time, 2-1 at home. This decade, the two teams have met twice in the playoffs, with each team winning twice, and the home team prevailing each time.

Now to the present. The Eagles looked dead on a number of different occasions this year but they come into this game very much alive after their 26-14 win at Minnesota last week in the Wild Card Round. The Eagles are 10-6-1 straight up this year and 11-6 ATS. They have won 5 of their last 6 and they are 5-1 in their last 6 ATS. The Eagles are just 4-4-1 on the road this season, and 5-4 ATS on the road. The New York Football Giants are 12-4 straight up and 12-4 ATS. They are 7-1 at home this year, 6-2 ATS at home. It’s hard to know what to say about the Giants’ momentum. They spent most of the season as the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl for a 2nd straight season, then they were derailed by the Plaxico Burress shooting incident. They lost 3 of their last 4 (2-2 ATS in their last 4), and their only win was in OT at home. However, in their season finale they rested their regulars and lost by a point at Minnesota when the Vikings were trying to win the division. The Giants were 3 point underdogs at Philly in week 10 but they came away with a wild, 36-31 win, stopping the Eagles on 4th and short late in the game. In week 14, the 11-1 and seemingly invincible Giants were 6.5 favorites over the Eagles at home but Philly pulled off a 20-14 upset. The Giants aren’t going to get Osi Umenyiora or Plaxico Burress back but they should be as healthy as they have been in many weeks. For one of the rare times in the past few years, the Eagles are actually one of the teams looking good injury wise in January. Both Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook are healthy and that is enormous. I’m not sure how much home/away really matters in this one, but if the weather is poor I believe it will help the Giants. New York thrives in the cold/wind setting. Either way, I believe McNabb and Westbrook will be able to make plays against the Giants defense, but it’s hard to know whether Andy Reid will stick with the run enough to keep the New York D honest. I think the Philly defense will be able to slow down the New York ground game much of the day and will give Eli Manning problems with pressure and coverage. Special teams, turnovers, missed tackles, and penalties could play a huge role in this game. Manning has proven he can win in the playoffs and I think he’ll avoid losing this game for his team. I think the Giants rushing attack will eventually begin to breakthrough late in the game. I think the game will be very tight down to the very end. I think coaching, the crowd, and the Giants’ advantage in short yardage situations on both sides of the ball will win out. I like the Giants to win by a field goal.

Sunday’s Late Day Game

San Diego (+6) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Chargers beat the spread.
Comment: The final game of the weekend may be the best of all. This game has more history than you might think. The Pittsburgh Steelers history is well known. 4 NFL Championships during a 6 year period in the 70’s, a number of playoff appearances over the last 2 decades, 2 more trips to the Super Bowl and another NFL Championship in 2005, etc. The San Diego Chargers were one of the powers of the AFL, making 5 League Championship Games and winning 1. They had some success in the early 80’s with “Air Coryell” and they had a few good years under Bobby Ross in the early to mid 90’s. But for the most part, the Chargers struggled from the time of the AFL-NFL merger up until the middle part of this decade. They have been one of the contending teams in the AFC over the last 5 years, but as with their previous periods of success, postseason achievement has mostly eluded them. Not surprisingly, the Chargers have been on the wrong end of the score most of the time in their meetings with the Steelers over the years. San Diego is just 6-20 all-time in the regular season against Pittsburgh. However, on the 2 occasions when the teams have met in the postseason, the Chargers have prevailed both times, and both times they have done it in Pittsburgh. In the 1982 Wild Card Playoffs, the Chargers won 31-28 over the Steelers in Pittsburgh. That was the final playoff win for Dan Fouts and crew and the final playoff win for the Chargers as a franchise until 1992. Then in the 1994 AFC Championship Game, the upstart Chargers beat the Steelers at Three River Stadium, 17-13, to reach the Super Bowl for the only time in their history. They were throttled by the 49ers, 49-26, in the Super Bowl. The Steelers are currently in the 2nd year of the Mike Tomlin era and are once again in the playoffs. This is their 6th appearance since 2001, and they are 7-4 overall in the playoffs since then, but just 3-3 at home. The Chargers are making their 4th trip to the playoffs since 2004, and they are now 3-3 in playoff games since 04, 1-1 on the road.

The Chargers come into this game red hot. In a way, they are the Eagles of the AFC, as they were left for dead a few weeks ago but come into this round very much alive after their 23-17 overtime win over the Colts at home last week in the Wild Card Playoffs. The Chargers are just 9-8 straight up and 8-8-1 ATS, but they have won 5 in a row and they are 4-1 in their last 5 ATS. They are just 3-5 on the road this season, 3-4-1 ATS on the road. The Steelers are coming off of their bye week and are 12-4 straight up this year, despite being just 9-7 ATS. Pittsburgh has won 6 of their last 7 games and they are 5-1 in their last 6 ATS. They are 6-2 at home this year, just 4-4 ATS at home. In week 11, the Chargers went into Pittsburgh as 4.5 point underdogs but they nearly came away with a win. The Steelers had nearly 200 more yards than the Chargers, dominated in time of possession, they recorded a safety, and they won the turnover battle 2-0, but they trailed at halftime and didn’t take the lead for good until a 32 yard field goal gave them a 1 point advantage with 11 seconds left. The Steelers committed 13 penalties for 115 yards, missed a field goal, got stopped on 4th and goal from the 1, and did not score a TD in the game. A number of big plays for the Steelers were wiped out by penalties. On the final play of the game, the Chargers tried a crazy lateral play and the Steelers returned a fumble for a TD with no time on the clock. That should have made the final score 17-10, but the play was erroneously overturned on replay, with the refs incorrectly ruling that the Chargers had performed an illegal lateral, thus rendering the ball dead. So the final score ended up being 11-10 which was really more indicative of the action on the field than a 17-10 score would have been anyway. It was the first 11-10 final score in NFL history and made the Chargers 0-13 at Pittsburgh in the regular season (but still 2-0 at Pittsburgh in the playoffs.)

Both of these teams have played through injuries throughout the season and are still facing health issues coming into this game. Admittedly, the Chargers’ injuries are more serious at the moment. For the 2nd year in a row, the Chargers future Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson has been hit by a serious injury at the worst possible time. LT has a torn tendon in his groin, played only briefly in the early part of last week’s game, and probably not going to play at all in this Sunday’s game. Even if he did play he would more than likely be ineffective. Despite what some are saying, in my opinion this is a devastating blow to the Chargers chances. There’s no question that LT is a lesser back than he was a few years ago when he won the MVP, but he’s still a really good, really versatile, really experienced running back when even 90% healthy. And he was finally getting close to top speed when he injured himself again near the end of the first half in the season finale against the Broncos. Not only will the Chargers miss LT’s ability strictly as a playmaker running the ball, they will miss his pass catching ability, his blocking, and his ability to carry the load against a hard hitting defense. Last season the Chargers were able to go to Michael Turner and it worked out well because he was a really good every down back that was fresh because he had been sparingly used over his 4 years in the League. This time Turner is gone and the Chargers are down to Darren Sproles, Jacob Hester, and Michael Bennett. Obviously, Sproles is explosive as a runner, receiver, and returner, and he is a super player, but you have to wonder how the little guy is going to hold up as the main ball carrier against the Pittsburgh Steeler defense. Hester carried 8 times for 37 yards against the Broncos in week 17 but last week he did not have a carry and caught just 1 pass for 6 yards. Bennett played in only 5 regular season games, carrying the ball just 7 times for 12 yards and making only 1 catch for 2 yards, but last week he carried 4 times for 24 yards and also had a catch for 7 yards. Still, this running back corps seems overmatched against Pittsburgh’s defense. Phillip Rivers is often excellent and has proven to be a winner over the last few years, but if he is forced to do almost everything for the Chargers against the Steelers it could be trouble. He’s liable to take a beating and turn the ball over. Antonio Gates seems healthy and had a big game last week but the Chargers will need other weapons to emerge. Chris Chambers has been more effective in recent weeks but he’s normally only good for a handful of positive plays a game against any defense. Then there’s Vincent Jackson who stepped up and became Rivers’ number 1 target this year, grabbing 59 passes for 1,098 yards and 7 TD’s. But Jackson has been less than stellar to say the least over the last few weeks. He caught just 2 passes for 47 yards in the season final against the Broncos. Then he was shutout of last week’s playoff game against the Colts, making no catches. Then on Tuesday he was picked up for DUI while on probation for a DUI in June of 2006. Is he just going to suddenly reemerge and have a big game against the Steelers on Sunday? I believe Chargers defense will be able to hold down Pittsburgh’s running game and make Big Ben do most of the offensive work for the Steelers. I think Ben might make some mistakes that the Chargers could take advantage of but he’s also going to find a lot of open receivers against the San Diego’s undisciplined secondary. The Steelers suspect offensive line and Ben Roethlisberger’s habit of holding onto the ball too long has made for a ton of sacks, negative plays, and turnovers for Pittsburgh’s offense this season. The one thing that could help them against San Diego is that the Chargers have struggled to put pressure on the passer this season and they can’t be blitzing all that much or they will get burned. If Pittsburgh’s offense sputters and/or makes mistakes, Rivers and Sproles and the rest of the Charger offensive players make a few plays, and other things go right for San Diego (special teams, penalties, close calls, coaching moves) then the Steelers could lose this game. But I just don’t think the Pittsburgh defense was the thing that the Chargers needed to go up against this week without LT and on the road. If Tomlinson were healthy I might lean towards San Diego beating anybody in the AFC right now. But he’s not healthy, he’s probably not even going to play, and I think the Steelers will take care of the Chargers in this one. However, I see it being a close game, decided by 3 or 4 or 5 points, something less than a TD. 10 of San Diego’s 17 games this season have been decided by 7 points or less; 8 of Pittsburgh’s 16 games this season have been decided by 7 points or less. I see the Steelers winning another close one this Sunday.