Last Week: Vs. Spread (7-3); Moneyline Upsets (3-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (29-30-1); Moneyline Upsets (8-5)
Week 6 Review: Finally, after weeks of going 5-5 and then one awful week, I had my best week of the season in week 6, going 7-3 against the spread and nailing 3 of 4 moneyline picks. I’m almost back to .500 against the spread for the season. I have to complain about FAU. They gave up a Hail Mary to lose by a point or else I would have gone 4 for 4 on moneyline upsets.
Week 7 Preview: There are a ton of huge games this week but I’m really uncertain about the spreads. Actually, I don’t even feel that confident picking winners this week. There are a lot of unproven teams that are favored and that has me looking at underdogs.
Friday
Game 1: Louisville (-6.5) @ Memphis
Pick: Memphis beats the spread
Comment: Just a hunch here. I thought Memphis would be much better than they have been. They are 3-3 but they should be 5-1. Louisville has yet to go on the road this season and I think the Tigers will hang around.
Saturday
Game 2: Toledo (+17) @ Michigan
Pick: Michigan covers
Comment: If Michigan just limits their number of fumbles to 10 they will be fine. Since losing to Fresno State, 55-54, in double OT on September 20th, Toledo has struggled, losing to FIU (35-16) and Ball State (31-0) at home. Toledo is 2-11 on the road since the start of the 2006 season, and last year the Rockets were 0-5 against the spread as road underdogs.
Game 3: Texas (+7) vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Texas beats the spread
Comment: This game is played in Dallas and is usually a blowout. Last year’s 28-21 game--won by Oklahoma--was the first game in the series since 1997 that wasn’t decided by double digits. Despite this history, I just don’t think Texas will lose by more than a TD this year. Both of these teams are great and while I do think Oklahoma will win I think it’ll be closer than 7.
Game 4: Minnesota (+12) @ Illinois
Pick: Minnesota beats the spread
Comment: Illinois just won by 25 at Michigan but Minnesota is a greatly improved team and they come into this game 5-1. They lost by just 13 at Ohio State so I think it’s reasonable to think that they can stay within 12 of Illinois.
Game 5: South Carolina (+1) @ Kentucky
Pick: South Carolina beats the spread
Comment: Kentucky surprised most people by staying within 3 points of Bama on the road, while South Carolina went to Oxford and knocked off Ole Miss, 31-24. I just have a hunch that the Gamecocks will win this one. South Carolina has won 8 straight against Kentucky and Steve Spurrier is 15-0 vs. the Wildcats.
Game 6: Vanderbilt (-3) @ Mississippi State
Pick: Vandy covers
Comment: Okay, now I know that Mississippi State has been staying pretty close in games against SEC foes, but they’re not any good. This is the type of game that Vandy would lose, but they’re now 3-0 in the SEC with wins over SC, Auburn, and Ole Miss. I think they can beat Miss State by more than a FG. It’s true that Miss State lost by just 1 to Auburn and stayed within 10 of LSU but they also lost to Louisiana Tech and lost to Georgia Tech, 38-7. Vandy needs just one win to get bowl eligible. Will they choke? Maybe but I’m going to ignore the name on the uniform for now and take any 5-0 team to beat the Maroon Dogs by more than 3.
Game 7: ASU (+27) @ USC
Pick: ASU beats the spread
Comment: I don’t doubt that USC will win this game and win it big. In fact, I think the Trojans will probably be up by 28 or so at some point but I just have to take 27 points. I mean, ASU won 10 games last year. They should be able to stay within 24 or so.
Game 8: Arizona (-6.5) @ Stanford
Pick: Stanford beats the spread
Comment: Arizona is 2-6 on the road over the last two years and their only road wins are at Washington and UCLA. Earlier this season Arizona lost at New Mexico, and their two Pac-10 wins this year are against UCLA and Washington. Last year Stanford won, 21-20, in Tucson. Stanford is 2-0 at home this season, including a win over Oregon State. They’ve been competitive for at least part of each of their games this season.
Game 9: Nebraska (+21) @ Texas Tech
Pick: Texas Tech covers
Comment: After getting beaten by 35 points at home last week, the Cornhuskers are going on the road for the first time this season. If Nebraska can’t stay within 35 of Missouri at home, I don’t think they’ll stay within 21 of Texas Tech in Lubbock. The Red Raiders won by 30 over KSU on the road last week. This one could be ugly.
Game 10: Oklahoma State (+13.5) @ Missouri
Pick: Missouri covers
Comment: I think Ok State is a decent team but I think Missouri is a great team and they should win by at least 2 TD’s at home against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State will be playing its first road game. The Tigers have won 18 of their last 19 at home and the Cowboys have lost 8 of 12 on the road. By the way, is Mike Gundy forty-one now or was he just rounding off last year?
Moneyline Specials
I don’t know if I’m just getting cocky or what but I see a ton of potential moneyline upsets this week. I’m picking South Carolina to beat Kentucky but that was only a 1 point spread so I’m just using that as one of my 10 spread picks. But after going 3-1 last week (4-0 if FAU would just knock it down!!!) I’m feeling good and I’m coming out of the booth with 5 moneyline upset picks.
FAU over Troy: Florida Atlantic is a 3.5 point underdog at home against Troy on Tuesday night. You gotta love fool’s ball on Tuesday night and I’m going to keep picking the Owls until they get their second win. They should have beaten Middle Tennessee State last Tuesday but they blew a 13 point second half lead and gave up a Hail Mary TD at the buzzer to lose by a point. What the hell is Schnellenberger doing down there? He’s losing control!!! Knock it down Owls! This, by the way, is a battle between the two teams that were on top of the SBC last season. Troy went into the final game of the year undefeated in the SBC at 6-0 but FAU came into the game 5-1 and went on the road and upset the Trojans, 38-32, to win the conference and earn the conference’s bowl bid. They beat Memphis, 44-27, in the New Orleans Bowl by the way. Anyhow, Owls win if they knock it down.
Clemson over Wake Forrest: Clemson is a 2.5 point underdog on the road at Wake Forrest on Thursday night. Before the season I picked Wake to win this game but I’m going with Clemson. Wake should have lost at home to Ole Miss earlier this year and two weeks ago they lost at home to Navy. Clemson got blowed up by Bama in the opener and two weeks ago they lost at home to Maryland. Both of these teams are coming off bad losses but it seems like it’s just about time for Clemson to win a game like this so that Tommy Bowden’s seat will cool off for a while. Clemson is the only team to beat WF in each of the last two years.
Northwestern over Michigan State: Northwestern is a 2.5 point underdog at home against Michigan State this Saturday. This is really just a hunch. The last time these two played in Evanston, NW led 38-3 in the 3rd quarter but the Spartans came back to win 41-38 for the biggest comeback in NCAA history. NW is 5-0 and coming off a bye. Michigan State lost by just 7 at Cal in their opener and has since won 5 straight. I have a feeling that the Cats will stay unbeaten.
LSU over Florida: To my surprise, LSU is a 5.5 point underdog on the road at the Swamp this Saturday. I know it seems very unlikely that the Gators will lose two games at home in one season but the defending National Champs are coming to town and they’ve won 3 of the last 4 against Florida. LSU has won 23 of its last 25 games overall and the 2 losses were in overtime. Florida hasn’t played up to my expectations this year. Tebow hasn’t been anywhere close to the weapon he was last season. I’ll take the Mad Hatter over Urban Meyer.
Wisconsin over Penn State: Wisconsin is a 5 point underdog at home this Saturday. I’m really conflicted over this one. I’ve been going with PSU each week and they have not let me down yet. But I just have a feeling that Wisconsin is going to inject itself into the Big Ten race somehow. I can’t believe they are going to lose all 3 of their big games over these past few weeks (Michigan, Ohio State, and PSU). Ohio State drove down the field for a late TD to beat Wisconsin 20-17 in Madison last Saturday night, ending the Badgers’ 16 game home win streak. Are the Badgers going to lose 2 straight at home? PSU has scored just 3 points in each of its last 2 trips to Camp Randall. I feel the Badgers pulling this one off.
No comments:
Post a Comment