Last Week: Vs. Spread (7-6-2); Straight Up (10-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (14-15-2); Straight Up (20-11)
Week 2 Review: There were only 15 games last week because of the cancellation of the Ravens-Texans game due to Hurricane Ike. I did a little better last week although I was way off picking the Falcons to beat the 9.5 point spread against the Bucs and the Chiefs to cover the 3.5 point spread against the Raiders. But overall I feel like I was a little bit closer to knowing what was going on last week.
Week 3 Preview: Even though I think I have a better grasp on things after two weeks, I feel like this is a very hard week to predict against the spread. I’m conflicted on almost every game. I could end up having a really bad week. On the other hand, I’ve been really confident before and ended up being way off so you never know. After so many close games last week, my strategy this week will be leaning towards favorites winning but not always by as much as expected.
Sunday’s Early Games
Kansas City (+5.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons win but Chiefs beat the spread.
Comment: The Chiefs hung tough against the Patriots on the road in week 1, but after getting run over at home by the Raiders last Sunday, it looks like they might be the worst team in the League. The Falcons had a tremendous opening week win over the Lions but then came crashing down to earth last Sunday in Tampa. While I think you would have to expect that the Falcons will be able to handle KC on both sides of the ball as well as or better than they did against Detroit, this is the type of game that they have lost over the years. If Mike Smith can turn the Falcons into a team that wins the games they are supposed to win, he will have done something that no other Atlanta coach has been able to do. I’m going to pick the Falcons to win but I’ll say that it will be by less than 5.5.
Arizona (+3) @ Washington
Pick: Redskins cover.
Comment: I’d like to pick the Cardinals to win this game but it might be asking too much for them to go 3-0. They had this game won last year before giving it away and losing 21-19. Washington looked like a completely different team last week after looking awful in week 1. I’m going to go with history and homefield advantage because I’m just not sure about this one.
Houston (+5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans cover.
Comment: The Titans have been too impressive so far to bet against them this week. The Texans have played only one game but in our only glimpse of them they got thrashed 38-17. With Kerry Collins now at the helm for the Titans and this game in Tennessee, I think this one will be fairly easy.
Oakland (+9.5) @ Buffalo
Pick: Bills cover.
Comment: Buffalo has been just as impressive as Tennessee this season but Oakland threw a wrench into things with their performance against the Chiefs last weekend. If the spread was 11 or 12 I would probably have to take the Raiders, but considering that Buffalo blew out Seattle at home in week 1, I have to go with them to beat Oakland by double digits.
Tampa Bay (+3) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover.
Comment: I treat both of these teams differently depending on where they are playing. I don’t think nearly as highly of the Bucs and their all-star QB Brian Griese on the road. By the same token, I don’t think Kyle Orton is as big of a liability at home.
Carolina (+3.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings win but Panthers beat the spread.
Comment: It’s tough to bet against Jake Delhomme keeping it close and I might have taken them to win if Minnesota hadn’t decided to go with a legitimate QB this week (if you consider Gus Frerotte a legitimate QB). The Vikings also need this game a lot more than the Panthers.
Cincinnati (+13.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover.
Comment: This one seems like a cinch to me. New York has been great on defense this season and the Bengals have been a total disaster. Carson Palmer has mysteriously taken a step back. The Bungals may eventually get things going offensively, as they have faced the Ravens defense and some ridiculous weather against Tennessee last week. But they won’t do it against New York, and their defense still sucks.
Miami (+12.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: I think the Pats had a good chance of covering this spread before Joey Porter popped off. They beat the Jets by 9 on the road, a week after the Dolphins lost to that same Jets team at home. Now that Porter has opened his fat, moronic mouth, I wouldn’t be surprised to see New England win by 24 or more. Tom Brady might even suit up.
Sunday’s Late Games
New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos cover.
Comment: New Orleans has been disappointing so far. They made the Bucs offense look good in week 1, and then blew a big 4th quarter lead against the Redskins in week 2. Meanwhile, Denver has been perhaps the most impressive team in the League. And it’s always tough to play at Mile High.
Detroit (+4) @ San Francisco
Pick: 49ers cover.
Comment: Detroit has gotten hammered the first two weeks, while the Niners won on the road at Seattle last week. Detroit has been a notoriously bad road team. In week 1 the Lions got smoked by the Falcons so San Fran should be able to take care of business at home.
St. Louis (+9.5) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover.
Comment: Before last weekend I would have found this to be the easiest game on the schedule to pick but Seattle’s loss at home to SF was downright stunning to me. As bad as the Rams have been, I’m just not that confident in the Seahawks right now. I’m beginning to wonder if they have enough of their team healthy to even win a game right now. Still, it’s a safer bet than going with the Lams to be competitive.
Cleveland (+1) @ Baltimore
Pick: Browns pull off the upset.
Comment: The Browns have to win at some point if they want to have a chance at the playoffs, and if they don’t do it this week I’m not sure it’s going to happen. Joe Flacco won his first game but he’s going to have some bumps in his rookie season. I just have a hunch that the new Browns are going to beat the old Browns and Art Model for all the fans back in Cleveland that he treated like dirt in the name of greed.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles win but Steelers beat the spread.
Comment: Wow, this one’s tough to pick! I’m going to take the Eagles because they’re at home, although I’m a little leery of a possible hangover from last week’s MNF contest in Dallas. This should be the game of the week.
Jacksonville (+5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Jaguars beat the spread.
Comment: A few weeks ago this looked like a matchup between the two teams that would fight for the AFC South Division Title. But with the Jags 0-2, the Colts 1-1, and the Titans 2-0, Jacksonville needs to come up with an upset to avoid falling way back in the playoff chase. Still, I’m not picking the Colts to lose twice at home in September, although I do think it’ll be close.
Sunday Night’s Game
Dallas (-3) @ Green Bay
Pick: Cowboys cover.
Comment: I know it’s at Lambeau but I don’t think that really gives the Pack any advantage in this game. Dallas should be strong on both sides of the ball no matter where they play. And at this time of the year the Boys are normally unstoppable.
Monday Night’s Game
New York Jets (+9.5) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Jets beat the spread.
Comment: The Chargers could easily be 2-0 and they desperately need to win this game but with Favre playing for the Jets I can’t see them getting blown out on Monday Night Football. I like the Chargers to finally get in the win column but I see the Jets keeping it respectable.
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