Saturday, November 14, 2009

The Baseball Blog: 2009 MLB Awards

2009 MLB Awards

With the World Series over it’s time to give out my 2009 MLB Awards. If you read this blog last year then you know that some of these awards are the traditional ones (MVP, Cy Young, etc.) and others are ones that I came up with just for the hell of it.

With a few obvious exceptions, these awards are based on the regular season. If things are really close between a few players I might lean towards a guy who played for a successful team or who also came through in the playoffs or something of that nature. As for the Most Valuable Player Awards or POY’s, etc., I base it on which player was most valuable to his team, not which player was most valuable to a winning team. For Cy Young Awards and other similar awards, I base it on the best pitcher, not the best pitcher for a winning team. For any of these awards I only go to team performance as a sort of tie-breaker in a really close case.

I don’t give out defensive awards because fielding is just too hard to grade effectively. However, I do take into account defensive performance when selecting the winner of each award. But for the most part, I’ll only use defense as a small factor unless a player is either exceptionally good or bad defensively.

Some of these selections were clear cut, no doubt winners. Others were really close. For the most part I value the rate at which a player is productive and not just the total numbers, but obviously I always take into effect things like at bats, games played, appearances, etc.

American League Most Valuable Player Award
Winner: Joe Mauer-Catcher-Minnesota Twins
Runner-up: Mark Teixeira-First Base-New York Yankees
Third Place: Kevin Youkilis-First Base-Boston Red Sox
Comments: Mauer was the clear cut winner. He missed time early on with an injury and still finished with solid totals (94 runs, 30 doubles, 28 homers, and 96 RBI in 138 games). Mauer pulled off a rare sweep of the rate stats in the AL, finishing 1st in batting average, OBP, Slugging, and OPS. He also led the AL in Runs Created and RC per 27 outs. He was tied 2nd in the AL in intentional walks; 6th in hits, tied 7th in Total Bases, and 6th in Times on Base. And he did all of this while playing catcher in 112 games.

National League Most Valuable Player Award
Winner: Albert Pujols-First Base-St. Louis Cardinals
Runner-up: Prince Fielder-First Base-Milwaukee Brewers
Third Place: Hanley Ramirez-Short Stop-Florida Marlins
Comments: Pujols ran away with the NL MVP and was a legitimate triple crown threat. A-Pu led the NL in OBP; Slugging; OPS; Runs; Total Bases; Homers; Runs Created; RC27; Extra Base Hits; Times on Base; Intentional Walks; and AB/HR. How ridiculous is that? He was also 2nd in the NL in Doubles; tied for 2nd in Games Played; 3rd in average; 3rd in RBI; 3rd in BB; 6th in hits; tied 9th in Sac Flies; 9th in Power/Speed; and 6th in AB/K. And he played Gold Glove worthy defense at first base.

American League Cy Young Award
Winner: Zach Greinke-Starter-Kansas City Royals
Runner-up: Roy Halladay-Starter-Toronto Blue Jays
Third Place: Felix Hernandez-Starter-Seattle Mariners
Comments: Greinke was the clear cut AL Cy Young. He had a remarkable season that will probably not receive the acclaim it truly deserves due to the fact that he plays for the Royals. But in reality, the fact that he did what he did while pitching for Kansas City makes it all the more impressive. Greinke led the AL in ERA; WHIP; and HR/9. He was 2nd in the AL in H/9; K’s; Complete Games; Shutouts; K/BB; Quality Starts and Quality Start Percentage. He was 3rd in the AL in K/9. Despite pitching for a team that tied for the worst record in the AL, Greinke finished tied for 7th in the AL in Wins and tied 8th in Winning Percentage. He was 5th in the AL in BB/9; 5th in Innings Pitched; and tied 4th in Games Started. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings, Greinke was 1st in the AL OBP-Against; 2nd in Batting Average-Against; 2nd in Slugging-Against; and 2nd in OPS-Against. He had 4 Tough Losses and 0 Cheap Wins.

National League Cy Young Award
Winner: Chris Carpenter-Starter-St. Louis Cardinals
Runner-up: Tim Lincecum-Starter-San Francisco Giants
Third Place: Adam Wainwright-Starter-St. Louis Cardinals
Comments: This was one of the toughest awards to decide on. Lincecum was awesome again and certainly deserving. Though Chris Carpenter missed some time with injuries and was not quite the work horse that Lincecum was and Wainwright was, I still felt that he was the best pitcher in the National League this year. Carpenter led the NL in ERA; Win%; and HR/9. He was 2nd in the NL in wins; WHIP; and QS%. Carpenter was 3rd in the NL in BB/9 and tied 3rd in Complete Games. Carpenter was also 4th in the NL in H/9; tied 6th in Shutouts; and 8th in K/BB. Among NL pitchers with at least 180 IP, Carpenter was 2nd in SLGA and OPSA; 4th in OBPA; and 5th in BAA. He had 2 Tough Losses and 0 Cheap Wins.

American League Rolaids Relief Award (Best Relief Pitcher)
Winner: Mariano Rivera-Closer-New York Yankees
Runner-up: Andrew Bailey-Closer-Oakland Athletics
Third Place: (Tie) Joe Nathan-Closer-Minnesota Twins/Jonathan Papelbon-Closer-Boston Red Sox
Comments: When I picked this one I was really stunned at my conclusion. Not because of the winner; Mo Rivera was once again the best closer in the AL for certain. But I couldn’t believe I wound up naming Andrew Bailey as runner up. More on him later. As for the Sandman, Rivera pitched in 66 games, going 3-3 and converting 44 of 46 save chances (95.7%) while posting a 1.76 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over 66.1 innings. Rivera fanned 72 and walked just 12. He held opposing batters to .197/.237/.311/.549 hitting. Rivera was 3rd in the AL in Saves. Among the 12 AL pitchers with at least 20 Saves, Rivera was 2nd in Save%. Among AL pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, Rivera was 1st in ERA and K/BB; 3rd in WHIP; OBPA; and OPSA; 9th in SLGA; and tied 9th in BAA.

National League Rolaids Relief Award (Best Relief Pitcher)
Winner: Huston Street-Closer-Colorado Rockies
Runner-up: Trevor Hoffman-Closer-Milwaukee Brewers
Third Place: Jonathan Broxton-Closer-Los Angeles Dodgers
Comments: This was a tough one because although Street was very effective closing out games, some of his numbers didn’t wow you. But he was the best closer in the National League this season when you get down to it. Street made 64 appearances, going 4-1 with 2 Holds and 35 Saves in 37 chances (94.6%) while posting a 3.06 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 61.2 innings. Street fanned 70 while walking just 13 and held opposing batters to .194/.236/.324/.561 hitting despite pitching half the time at Coors Field. He was tied 7th in the NL in Saves but among 16 NL pitchers with at least 20 Saves, Street was 2nd in Save%. Among NL pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, Street was 1st in OBPA; 2nd in WHIP; 5th in K/BB; 5th in OPSA; 11th in BAA and 11th in K/9.

American League Rookie of the Year Award
Winner: Andrew Bailey-Closer-Oakland Athletics
Runner-up: Nolan Reimold-Left Fielder-Baltimore Orioles
Third Place: Gordon Beckham-Short Stop-Chicago White Sox
Comments: This might have been the most lopsided contest of all. I had Andrew Bailey on one of my fantasy teams and I still had no idea how good of a season he had. He had a great season by any measure of standards. Compared to the rest of the rookies in the AL, Bailey was in another league. Bailey made 68 appearances for Oakland last season, going 6-3 with 2 Holds, 26 Saves in 30 chances (86.7%), a 1.84 ERA and a miniscule 0.88 WHIP over 83.1 innings. Bailey had 91 K against 24 BB. He dominated opposing batters, holding them to .167/.228/.248/.476 hitting. Bailey led all AL rookies in Saves with 26 and no other rookie had more than 2. He was 3rd among AL rookies in games pitched. Among AL rookie pitchers with at least 40 innings, Bailey was 1st in ERA; WHIP; BAA; OBPA; SLGA; and OPSA; and 4th in K/BB and K/9. Bailey’s OPSA was a ridiculous .476. Among AL rookies with at least 40 IP, the next best OPSA was .629.

National League Rookie of the Year Award
Winner: Chris Coghlan-Left Fielder-Florida Marlins
Runner-up: Garrett Jones-Right Fielder-Pittsburgh Pirates
Third Place: J.A. Happ-Starter-Philadelphia Phillies
Comments: This was a tough one to pick. One of the main deciding factors was that Garrett Jones played in just 82 games. Some people may not even know who Chris Coghlan is and his stats don’t jump off the page at you. But if you played in an NL-only fantasy league you know how consistently good he was. You really have to watch Coghlan to see how good he is. NL East fans that got to watch him 15 times or so figured out by the end of the year that he was a player and a guy you want in your lineup. Coghlan played in 128 games for the Marlins as a rookie and ended up hitting .321/.390/.460/.850 with 84 runs, 31 doubles, 6 triples, and 9 homers. Coghlan led all NL rookies in Runs, Hits, Doubles, Triples, and RC. Only 3 NL rookies qualified for the batting title and Coghlan was easily the leader in average, OBP, Slugging and OPS. He was 5th among NL rookies in triples, tied 9th in homers, 5th in RBI, 7th in SB, 3rd in BB, and 2nd in EXBH. Among NL rookies with at least 300 PA, Coghlan was 1st in batting average, OBP, and BB/K; 2nd in RC27; 3rd in OPS; and 4th in Slugging.

American League Manager of the Year Award
Winner: Joe Girardi-New York Yankees
Runner-up: Ron Washington-Texas Rangers
Third Place: Ron Gardenhire-Minnesota Twins
Comments: These types of awards are pretty subjective. In all pro sports it’s difficult to say how much influence a coach or manager had on his team. In baseball it’s even harder because managers have even less direct impact on the play of the game than coaches in football and basketball do. With all of that said, I still made an attempt. Yankee haters and many others might scoff at the idea of giving the manager of the Yankees this award or any credit at all but they’d be misguided. Being the manager of the Yankees is not easy. When anything else but a World Series championship is considered a failure it’s tough. Even if you win a championship you’re only doing what you were “supposed to do.” That’s a lot of expectation and pressure for a team and you are going to be in charge of making sure the team doesn’t wilt. You will also be the easiest person to blame if things don’t go right. Girardi came into an impossible situation, replacing the great Joe Torre, and taking over a team that had been eroding for years. The Yankees missed the postseason in Girardi’s first season as manager for the first time since the strike shortened season of 1994. This off-season the team spent hundreds of millions to bring in big name free agents. The team was opening up the new Yankee Stadium and asking fans to pay high prices for seats. Then there was all of the A-Rod controversy. Girardi held everything together and all of those egos came together to form something the Yankees hadn’t been since the early part of the decade: a real team. By midseason you would have thought these guys had been together for 15 years. Girardi might not be the best strategic manager but he’s the right coach for the Yankees and he deserves a ton of credit for their success this season.

National League Manager of the Year Award
Winner: Tony LaRussa-St. Louis Cardinals
Runner-up: Jim Tracy-Colorado Rockies
Third Place: Freddy Gonzalez-Florida Marlins
Comments: Man I hate Tony LaRussa. But he is an undeniably excellent manager. No matter who the Cardinals have on the roster, no matter what misfortune comes on the team during the season, LaRussa always ends up with his team contending. He did it again this season. LaRussa gets the absolute most out of each of his players and knows how best to utilize them. He also does what almost no other manager does: he never takes a pitch off. What I mean is that he puts a tremendous amount of thought into every minute of every game and spends hours away from the field preparing for games to come (at least when he’s not at a book signing). LaRussa’s “strategic advantage” hasn’t always translated into success in the postseason but there is probably not a better regular season manager in the game today.

Other Awards

American League Middle Relief Pitcher of the Year Award
Winner: Michael Wuertz-Reliever-Oakland Athletics
Runner-up: Darren O’Day-Reliever-Texas Rangers
Third Place: Matt Guerrier-Reliever-Minnesota Twins
Comments: This was probably the closest call of any of these awards. Wuertz and O’Day were both excellent middle relievers. In some ways O’Day was a little bit better but they were virtually equal. In the end I went with Wuertz because he was a bit more of a horse than O’Day, making 10 more appearances and throwing 23 more innings. Wuertz made 74 appearances for the A’s, going 6-1 with 4 Saves, 23 Holds, and just 2 Blown Saves. He fanned 102 while walking only 23 over 78.2 innings with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Opposing batters hit just .188/.248/.319/.567 off of Wuertz. He was tied 4th in the AL in Games Pitched and 7th in Holds. Among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, Wuertz was 3rd in K/9; 5th in BAA and OBPA; 6th in WHIP; 7th in K/BB; 8th in OPSA; and 11th in SLGA.

National League Middle Relief Pitcher of the Year Award
Winner: Jeremy Affeldt-Reliever-San Francisco Giants
Runner-up: Nick Masset-Reliever-Cincinnati Reds
Third Place: Arthur Rhodes-Reliever-Cincinnati Reds
Comments: Jeremy Affeldt was not dominant last year but he was the best middle reliever in the National League. In 74 games, Affeldt posted a 1.73 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 62.1 innings, going 2-2 with 33 Holds and 0 Blown Saves. Opposing batters hit just .197/.306/.277/.583 off him with just 3 homers. Affeldt wasn’t lights out, as he walked 31 batters, but he got the job done with help from 18 ground ball double plays. He led the NL in Holds and among NL relievers with at least 40 IP he was 1st in ERA.

American League Rookie Pitcher of the Year Award
Winner: Andrew Bailey-Closer-Oakland Athletics
Runner-up: Brad Bergesen-Starter-Baltimore Orioles
Third Place: Neftali Feliz-Middle Reliever-Texas Rangers
Comments: This one wasn’t close, although Bergensen had an underappreciated season and Feliz was unhittable most of the time.

National League Rookie Pitcher of the Year Award
Winner: J.A. Happ-Starter-Philadelphia Phillies
Runner-up: Tommy Hanson-Starter-Atlanta Braves
Third Place: Randy Wells-Starter-Chicago Cubs
Comments: My fellow Braves fans might not like this pick but it’s the right one. Happ has to be the choice over Hanson because he threw so many more innings. Unlike Hanson, Happ was in the big leagues for the entire season. He pitched in 35 games, making 23 starts and 12 relief appearances. Overall he was 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 166 innings. He made 14 Quality Starts (61%) and threw 3 CG and 2 SHO. Happ led all NL rookie pitchers in Innings, K’s, CG, and SHO. He tied for 1st among NL rookies in Wins; 2nd in QS; and 3rd in GS. Only Happ and Randy Wells qualified for rate stats as rookies and Happ was better than Wells in most of them. Among NL rookies who threw at least 100 innings, Happ was 2nd in ERA, K/9, WHIP, BAA, and OBPA. He was 3rd in OBPA and OPSA. And of course he posted these numbers while pitching much of the time at Citizen’s Bank Park. Happ also had to pitch as a starter and out of the pen and he was good in both roles. He was 10-4 with a 2.99 ERA in 23 starts and 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA over 21.2 innings in 12 relief appearances.

All-American League Team (Best player at each position)

Catcher: Joe Mauer-Minnesota Twins
First Base: Mark Teixeira-New York Yankees
Second Base: Ben Zobrist-Tampa Bay Rays
Third Base: Alex Rodriquez-New York Yankees
Shortstop: Derek Jeter-New York Yankees
Left Field: Jason Bay-Boston Red Sox
Center Field: Torii Hunter-Anaheim Angels
Right Field: Shin-Soo Choo-Cleveland Indians
Designated Hitter: Adam Lind-Toronto Blue Jays
Left Handed Starter: CC Sabathia-New York Yankees
Right Handed Starter: Zack Greinke-Kansas City Royals
Left Handed Middle Reliever: Matt Thornton-Chicago White Sox
Right Handed Middle Reliever: Michael Wuertz-Oakland Athletics
Left Handed Closer: Brian Fuentes-Anaheim Angels
Right Handed Closer: Mariano Rivera-New York Yankees
Comments: I had a more difficult time choosing this team than I expected. Mauer was really the only no-brainer among position players. At first base there were 4 legit candidates in Tex, Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, and Kendry Morales. I really had to go with Tex over Youk because Youkilis missed so much time. You could argue that I went the opposite way in choosing A-Rod over Evan Longoria, but Longoria had just 3 more homers and 13 more RBI than A-Rod in 140 more at-bats! Case closed there. The choice at short was between Jeter and Jason Bartlett. Jeter’s enormous edge in Runs Created (120.0-98.7) makes it clear that it wasn’t all that close. I was surprised that Bartlett ended up being the next best shortstop. I was just as surprised that I ended up naming Ben Zobrist the top second baseman, although it was hardly a tough choice. Zobrist’s RC27 was 8.12; the next highest RC27 for a qualified AL 2B was 6.10. Next. The outfield was tough because there just weren’t a lot of AL outfielders who had great seasons. Bay was an easy choice in left even though his numbers weren’t overwhelming. Center was one of the hardest decisions because you had to compare very different types of players. Although Torii Hunter missed a lot of time with injuries, I ended up going with him over Jacob Ellsbury. I guess the biggest thing is that I just value the power/speed game more than the singles/speed game. If Ellsbury had a .400 OBP and more walks than strikeouts that would be one thing. But if you only have a .355 OBP it makes a .415 Slugging Pct hard to defend. 70 steals is nice but I’d rather have a guy that gets on base and hits homers. I was definitely surprised that I ended up with Choo as the top right fielder but it wasn’t a tough choice. He led AL right fielders in Runs Created (total production) and RC27 (efficiency). Adam Lind as the top DH was a fairly easy choice. I’ve already discussed Greinke, Wuertz, and Rivera for other awards. CC and Jon Lester were very close but I went with Sabathia for top lefty starter because in 26.2 additional innings he had a better ERA, WHIP, BAA, OBPA, SLGA, and OPSA. He also won 4 more games. The lefty closer race was basically decided when George Sherrill was traded to the NL. Fuentes wasn’t that good. In fact, he was barley good. But the only two options were Fuentes and Sherrill, and Fuentes ended up with 23 more appearances, 13.2 more IP, and 28 more Saves. He did have 4 more Blown Saves but they came in 32 more save chances. There were a few good options for lefty middle reliever. I went with Thornton because he was better than the closest competitors in WHIP, K/BB, K/9, and OPSA.

All-National League Team (Best player at each position)

Catcher: Brian McCann-Atlanta Braves
First Base: Albert Pujols-St. Louis Cardinals
Second Base: Chase Utley-Philadelphia Phillies
Third Base: Pablo Sandoval-San Francisco Giants
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez-Florida Marlins
Left Field: Ryan Braun-Milwaukee Brewers
Center Field: Matt Kemp-Los Angels Dodgers
Right Field: Justin Upton-Arizona Diamond Backs
Left Handed Starter: Ted Lilly-Chicago Cubs
Right Handed Starter: Chris Carpenter-St. Louis Cardinals
Left Handed Middle Reliever: Jeremy Affeldt-San Francisco Giants
Right Handed Middle Reliever: Nick Masset-Cincinnati Reds
Left Handed Closer: Mike Gonzalez-Atlanta Braves
Right Handed Closer: Huston Street-Colorado Rockies
Comments: The NL team was much easier to pick than the AL. McCann, Pujols, Utley, Ramirez, Braun, and Kemp were all clear cut choices. So, to my surprise, was Kung Fu Panda at third base. Right Field was the toughest spot to pick among position players and it could have gone to a few different players. I chose Upton because I thought he was the best overall but there were probably a number of guys who would have been solid picks. I’ve already discussed Carpenter, Affeldt, and Street for different awards. There really was no great choice for top lefty starter. Clayton Kershaw and Happ had good numbers but they didn’t throw enough innings. Randy Wolf, Wandy Rodriguez, and Ted Lilly all had similar, solid years. I went with Lilly because I thought he was the best overall. Among qualified lefties, Lilly was 1st in the NL in WHIP and 4th in ERA. He was tied for 4th in Wins and QS among lefties, and he was 1st in QS%. Masset was an easy choice for righty middle reliever, as he was the only one of the top NL middle men who wasn’t left handed. Mike Gonzalez might appear a bizarre pick for top lefty closer in the NL but he actually won that distinction by default. He wasn’t really even a closer in 2009 but with 10 Saves he was the only lefty who you could even loosely be defined as a closer. Only 1 other NL lefty had more than 2 Saves and that other guy was Franklin Morales with 7. I don’t think I have to explain to you that Franklin Morales is not as good as Gonzalez. Gonzalez had twice as many appearances and was significantly better in all the important stats.

All-Major League Team (Best player at each position)

Catcher: Joe Mauer-Minnesota Twins
First Base: Albert Pujols-St. Louis Cardinals
Second Base: Ben Zobrist-Tampa Bay Rays
Third Base: Pablo Sandoval-San Francisco Giants
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez-Florida Marlins
Left Field: Ryan Braun-Milwaukee Brewers
Center Field: Torii Hunter-Anaheim Angels
Right Field: Shin-Soo Choo-Cleveland Indians
Left Handed Starter: CC Sabathia-New York Yankees
Right Handed Starter: Zack Greinke-Kansas City Royals
Left Handed Middle Reliever: Jeremy Affeldt-San Francisco Giants
Right Handed Middle Reliever: Michael Wuertz-Oakland Athletics
Left Handed Closer: George Sherrill-Baltimore Orioles/Los Angeles Dodgers
Right Handed Closer: Mariano Rivera-New York Yankees
Comments: There were a lot of clear cut choices here, even if some of them ended up surprising me. Mauer, Pujols, Ramirez, and Braun were easy picks. I was surprised by my decision to go with Zobrist for top 2B but he was better than Utley in all the rate stats and not far behind in totals. I was shocked by how clear cut a choice Sandoval was at 3rd. He had more total production than A-Rod because he Rodriguez missed so much time, but he actually outdid the Yankee cleanup man in RC27 as well. And Sandoval plays in an extreme pitchers park while A-Rod plays in an extreme hitters park. Center field was a toss up between Kemp and Hunter. Kemp had better totals because Hunter missed so much time, but Torii had better rate stats. This was one of the few choices I made that I didn’t really feel like I could defend my decision with numbers. I thought it was basically a toss up and I went with Hunter because I think he’s a better player. Once again I was surprised by my choice of Choo for top RF but once again it wasn’t that hard of a decision. Top right handed starter was very close. Greinke was better in some areas and Carpenter was better in others. I gave the nod to Greinke because he was more of a work horse than Carpenter, with 5 more starts, 36.2 more innings, 3 more CG, and 2 more SHO. The lefty starter situation was interesting because since it was the entire ML Cliff Lee’s full season was brought into play. I almost went with Lee because he had more CG, SHO, and QS. But Sabathia was better in BAA, OBPA, SLGA, OPSA, K/9, and WHIP. Sabathia was also 19-8, while Lee was 14-13. Affeldt was an easy choice over Matt Thornton for lefty middle reliever, as he had a 1.73 ERA, 33 Holds, and 0 Blown Saves, while Thornton had a 2.74 ERA, 24 Holds, 4 Saves, and 5 Blown Saves. I went with Wuertz over Nick Masset for top righty middle man and it wasn’t close. Wuertz was much more dominant, fanning 11.67 per 9 compared with 8.29 for Masset. He was also better in K/BB, WHIP, BAA, OBPA, and OPSA. With both AL and NL stats being included, the lefty closer situation was interesting. Even though Sherrill didn’t close for the Dodgers he did continue to pitch well in relief and his overall numbers were enough to negate the fact that Fuentes had 27 more Saves. Sherrill had 7 more appearances, 14 more innings, 4 less losses, and 11 more Holds than Fuentes. Sherrill had a 1.70 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP; Fuentes had a 3.93 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Opponents hit .209/.281/.307/.588 off Sherrill; they hit .254/.342/.378/.720 off Fuentes. 27 Saves isn’t nearly enough to offset all of that. Finally, Rivera as top righty closer was a no-brainer of course.

Major League Baseball Player of the Year Award (Best player in MLB)
Winner: Albert Pujols-First Base-St. Louis Cardinals
Runner-up: Joe Mauer-Catcher-Minnesota Twins
Third Place: Prince Fielder-First Base-Milwaukee Brewers
Comments: As great as Mauer was, this wasn’t even close. Mauer was better in average and OBP; Pujols was better in everything else.

Major League Baseball Starting Pitcher of the Year Award (Best starter in MLB)
Winner: Zack Greinke-Kansas City Royals
Runner-up: Chris Carpenter-St. Louis Cardinals
Third Place: Tim Lincecum-Starter-San Francisco Giants
Comments: This was explained earlier in the All-MLB Team.

Major League Baseball Middle Relief Pitcher of the Year Award (Best middle reliever in MLB)
Winner: Michael Wuertz-Oakland Athletics
Runner-up: Darren O’Day-Reliever-Texas Rangers
Third Place: Jeremy Affeldt-San Francisco Giants
Comments: Explained earlier in the AL award.

Major League Baseball Closer of the Year Award (Best closer in MLB)
Winner: Mariano Rivera-New York Yankees
Runner-up: Andrew Bailey-Oakland Athletics
Third Place: Huston Street-Colorado Rockies
Comments: See above.

Major League Baseball Rookie Player of the Year Award (Best rookie position player in MLB)
Winner: Chris Coghlan-Left Fielder-Florida Marlins
Runner-up: Garrett Jones-Right Fielder-Pittsburgh Pirates
Third Place: (Tie) Casey McGehee-Third Base-Milwaukee/Andrew McCutchen-Center Fielder-Pittsburgh Pirates
Comments: See above.

Major League Baseball Rookie Pitcher of the Year Award (Best rookie pitcher in MLB)
Winner: Andrew Bailey-Closer-Oakland Athletics
Runner-up: J.A. Happ-Starter-Philadelphia Phillies
Third Place: Tommy Hanson-Starter-Atlanta Braves
Comments: This wasn’t close.

Major League Baseball Manager of the Year Award
Winner: Joe Girardi-New York Yankees
Runner-up: Tony LaRussa-St. Louis Cardinals
Third Place: Jim Tracy-Colorado Rockies
Comments: Okay, so maybe I’m letting the postseason effect me on this one but I don’t care.

American League Executive of the Year Award
Winner: Brian Cashman-New York Yankees
Runner-up: Tony Reagins-Anaheim Angels
Third Place: Jon Daniels-Texas Rangers
Comments: Again, I don’t care that Cashman has more funds than any of the other GM’s. He got the right players and he didn’t have to give up his young talent in order to do so.

National League Executive of the Year Award
Winner: Ruben Amaro Jr.-Philadelphia Phillies
Runner-up: John Mozeliak-St. Louis Cardinals
Third Place: Frank Wren-Atlanta Braves
Comments: Amaro has built a new powerhouse in the NL East. He replaced Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez, signed Pedro for the end of the year, and managed to trade for Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco without giving up the prospects that everyone was asking for.

Major League Baseball Executive of the Year Award
Winner: Ruben Amaro Jr.-Philadelphia Phillies
Runner-up: John Mozeliak-St. Louis Cardinals
Third Place: Brian Cashman-New York Yankees
Comments: See above.

Major League Baseball Pinch Hitter of the Year
Winner: Seth Smith-Colorado Rockies
Runner-up: Ross Gload-Florida Marlins
Third Place: Wes Helms-Florida Marlins
Comments: Seth Smith’s numbers off the bench are absurd. He was 17 for 36 as a pinch hitter, hitting .472/.574/.861/1.436 with 5 doubles, 3 triples, a homer, 12 runs, 12 RBI, 1 SB in 1 attempt, and 8 BB.

Postseason Most Valuable Player Award
Winner: (Tie) Mariano Rivera-Closer-New York Yankees/Alex Rodriguez-Third Base-New York Yankees
Runner-up: (Tie) Cliff Lee-Starter-Philadelphia Phillies/CC Sabathia-Starter-New York Yankees
Comments: I was pretty non-committal here. There were other guys who had great postseasons but these 4 were the best. I couldn’t choose between Rivera and A-Rod, and I couldn’t choose between the aces. Rivera pitched in 12 of the Yankees’ 15 playoff games, going 5 for 5 in save chances and allowing just 1 run on 10 hits and 5 BB with 14 K over 16 innings for a 0.56 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. He got the Yankees out of several impossible situations and he put the opposition to bed whenever he got the ball with the lead. A-Rod went 19 for 52 in the postseason to hit .365/.500/.808/1.308 with 15 runs, 5 doubles, 6 homers, 18 RBI, 12 BB, 2 SB in 2 attempts, a SF, and 3 HBP. He had a slew of huge hits and was consistently getting on base, playing solid defense, and making things happen throughout the postseason. CC was a true ace for the Yanks in the playoffs, making 5 starts and going 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 36.1 innings. Cliff Lee was unbeatable for the runner-up Phils. In 5 starts Lee went 4-0 with 2 CG, a 1.56 ERA, and a 0.82 WHIP over 40.1 innings.


Just For Fun Awards

Best Team During the Regular Season: New York Yankees
Most Surprising Team: Colorado Rockies
Biggest in-season Turn Around: Colorado Rockies
Biggest in-season Collapse: Detroit Tigers
Most Disappointing AL Team: Cleveland Indians
Most Disappointing NL Team: New York Mets
Most Over Achieving AL Team: Minnesota Twins
Most Over Achieving NL Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Most Under Achieving AL Team: Detroit Tigers
Most Under Achieving NL Team: Chicago Cubs
Most Anonymously Decent Team: Seattle Mariners
Best non-playoff Team: (Tie) Atlanta Braves/Texas Rangers
Worst AL Team: Kansas City Royals
Worst NL Team: Washington Nationals
Luckiest AL Team: Seattle Mariners
Luckiest NL Team: San Diego Padres
Most Snake-bit AL Team: Cleveland Indians
Most Snake-bit NL Team: New York Mets
Worst Front Office: (Tie) Kansas City Royals/Pittsburgh Pirates
Worst AL Managerial Job: Ozzie Guillen-Chicago White Sox
Worst NL Managerial Job: Dave Wallace-Pittsburgh Pirates
Worst AL Home Fans: (Tie) Tampa Bay Rays/Texas Rangers
Worst NL Home Fans: (Tie) Atlanta Braves/Florida Marlins
Best Home Fans: (Tie) Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers

ML Least Valuable Player of the Year
Winner: Ronny Cedeno-Short Stop-Seattle Mariners/Pittsburgh Pirates
Runner-up: Bill Hall-Third Base-Milwaukee Brewers/Seattle Mariners
Third Place: Willy Taveras-Center Field-Cincinnati Reds
Comment: Cedeno was 71 for 341, hitting .208/.256/.337/.593 with 79 strikeouts and only 19 walks.

ML Least Valuable Pitcher of the Year
Winner: Chien Ming Wang-Starter/Reliever-New York Yankees
Runner-up: Dana Eveland-Starter/Reliever-Oakland Athletics
Third Place: Jeff Bennett-Reliever-Atlanta Braves/Tampa Bay Rays
Comment: Wang pitched in 12 games, including 9 starts, going 1-6 while allowing 46 runs on 66 hits and 19 walks over just 42 innings for a 9.64 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP.

MLB Biggest Douche of the Year Award
Winner: Milton Bradley-Right Fielder-Chicago Cubs
Comments: None needed.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 10 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (3-10); Straight Up (6-7)
Season: Vs. Spread (60-67-1); Straight Up (82-46)

Week 9 Review: Back to back horrible weeks for me. This was my worst week of the season, particularly in the straight up department where I actually had a losing record. Embarrassing; but I know a lot of people had it tough last week.

Week 10 Preview: This is a hard week to pick in my opinion. And after the last couple of weeks my confidence is totally shot. On the positive side, the holiday season must be near because the early week games are starting up.

Thursday’s Game

Chicago (+3) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: The first Thursday nighter since the season opener is a matchup of a pair of mystery teams. After a 3-1 start that included wins over the Steelers and in Seattle, the Bears have lost 3 of 4, including blowout losses at Cinci and to the Cards at home. The Niners opened the season with a win over the defending NFC Champs on the road and followed that up by beating the Seahawks. After a heartbreaking loss at Minnesota, the Niners whipped the Rams to move to 3-1. Since then they have lost 4 straight. They lost by 3 on the road against Houston and by 4 at Indy but then last week they lost by 10 at home to the Titans. Anything could happen in this game. I’ll take the Niners to win because they are at home and because I hate the Bears.

Sunday’s Early Games

Atlanta (-1) @ Carolina
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: This game scares me, but as a true Falcons fan that’s nothing unusual. The Falcons won by 8 earlier in the year but that was at home. The Panthers were left for dead by most after an 0-3 start but they have sustained life by winning 3 of 5 since. If you look at their season so far, they have 1 bad loss and 1 solid win. Losses to the Eagles, at Atlanta, at Dallas, and at New Orleans are all understandable. The loss at home to the Bills is the one that hurts. Wins over Washington and Tampa mean little but the blowout of the Cards in the desert was impressive. The Falcons have won 5 of 8 games this year but it hasn’t been pretty. They need to keep winning. I hope they do.

Tampa Bay (+10) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins cover
Comment: How did the Bucs win by 10 at Green Bay last week? I was totally convinced that the Bucs were headed for an 0-16 season. The Dolphins are not any good and yet they continue to be competitive. Tampa is horrible and I think it’ll be back to losing by double digits for them this weekend.

Detroit (+16.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: Perhaps the best team in the league hosting perhaps the worst team in the league. It should be a complete mismatch. But this is still the NFL, even if the gap between the top and the bottom is wider than usual this season. I like the Vikings to win by at least 20.

Jacksonville (+7) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: The Jags have got to be one of the weakest 4-4 teams of all-time. The Jets should come off of the bye and win by double digits at home.

Cincinnati (+7) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Bengals beat the spread
Comment: I’m definitely a believer in the Bengals but the Steelers seem to have found their stride. I don’t see Cinci winning in Pittsburgh and I don’t see them sweeping the Steelers. It should be close but I like Pittsburgh to win in the end.

New Orleans (-13.5) @ St. Louis
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: The Saints have been living dangerously in recent weeks but they could play their worst game of the year and still beat the Rams by 2 TD’s.

Buffalo (+6.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Bills beat the spread
Comment: This is one of the hardest games to predict this week in my opinion. The Titans have won 2 straight but they were awful earlier in the year and Vince Young is liable to implode at any time. The Bills have been a different team from week to week. They opened the season by essentially winning on the road at New England. I mean, I would say that their loss in the opener to the Patriots was flukier than Cinci’s loss in the opener against Denver. After losing by 28 in Miami and losing to the Browns 6-3 at home, the Bills went on the road and beat the Jets and Panthers. In their last game they were whipped by the Texans at home. Now they are coming off of a bye and who knows how they’ll play against the Titans. I think they’ll keep it close but I’ll take the Titans to win because I think they are the better team and they are at home.

Denver (-3.5) @ Washington
Pick: Broncos cover
Comment: I don’t care what anyone says, nobody knows how good the Broncos are at this point. Washington shouldn’t be that bad but they are and they are banged up on top of everything else. I like the Broncos to stop the losing skid at 2 games.

Sunday’s Late Games

Kansas City (+1) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders cover
Comment: I can’t believe I’m taking the Raiders to cover as a favorite but I’ve got little recourse because it’s a 1-point spread and they’re playing the Chiefs in Oakland. These teams are both awful. Oakland won in KC earlier this year so they should be able to win at home. And we all know that sort of logic has no place in the arena of sports betting.

Seattle (+9) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover
Comment: I’ve got no idea whether or not the Cardinals feel like winning this game but if they do they should win by double digits.

Dallas (-3) @ Green Bay
Pick: Cowboys cover
Comment: I would have doubted whether or not the Cowboys could keep it going this week on the road if Tampa hadn’t won by 10 at Lambeau last week. It’s interesting to compare these two franchises at this point in time. Everyone assumes that Jerra, Mumbling Wade, Romo and crew have no idea what they are doing, and they give off the impression that they feel the same way. Mike McCarthy, Ted Thompson, and Aaron Rogers act as if they know exactly what they are doing and people seem to accept it whole heartedly. I’m wondering if maybe things aren’t just the opposite. Maybe the Cowboys are getting it right, staying away from the flashy, expensive names, and resisting the temptation to bring in another head coach. I’m more certain about the situation in Green Bay. I think McCarthy and Thompson should be taken to the middle of Lake Superior the next time the Witch of November comes crashing and both be set adrift, together, hand in handcuffed hand.

Philadelphia (+1) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers cover
Comment: Yet another matchup of teams you can’t count on or count out from week to week. I’ll take the Chargers because they’re at home and they have more momentum.

Sunday Night’s Game

New England (+3) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Patriots beat the spread
Comment: I’m hedging here. My theory on these two giants of the sport is that neither is as good as they have been in the past but they keep on winning because that’s what they do. It could go either way. Hopefully it will be another classic.

Monday Night’s Game

Baltimore (-11) @ Cleveland
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: While I think people went a bit overboard in their praise of the Ravens during their 3 game losing streak, I do think they are a legitimately good team. That said, they’ve got a lot of work to do if they’re going to get into the playoffs. At 4-4, the Ravens are 2 games back of the Steelers and Bengals in the AFC North. They’re really 3 games back of the Bengals because Cinci owns a 2-game sweep over them. The Ravens still have to play Pittsburgh twice, they have to play the Colts, and they have to go to Green Bay in December. They basically can’t afford any slipups against weaker competition the rest of the season. They should be playing with a sense of desperation come Monday night in Cleveland. The Browns are a mess and the Ravens should win by at least 2 TD’s.

The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 11 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (0-9-1); Moneyline Upsets (0-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (40-57-3); Moneyline Upsets (7-18)

Week 10 Review: I knew my record was going to be bad but I was hoping I had gotten at least 1 game correct. Normally after a horrific weak like that I would have said something like “the record speaks for itself” but I don’t think that quite does the job (I was going to say “I don’t think that quite covers it this time” but immediately rephrased the sentence). For starters, let me just say that for one of the rare times since I started writing this blog I’m glad that I’m not doing this for a large audience. Actually, I’m not all that embarrassed for two reasons: firstly, I know that most people had a difficult time with predictions last week; second, I know that nobody reads this. With that in mind, I feel compelled to point out a couple of pathetic factoids about last week. Not only was I completely wrong save for a push in 1 game, I wasn’t really all that close to getting anything right and I really shouldn’t have gotten a push in the Houston-Tulsa game. It took Houston going on a last minute drive for a TD, then recovering an onside kick, then moving into field goal range in 20 seconds, and kicking a FG of over 50 yards just to get me a push. The other thing that I must point out is that 5 of the 7 favorites I took not only failed to cover but actually lost, and Houston would have made it 6 of 7. And one final note: Washington was exciting again and fucked me over again.

Week 11 Preview: At this point it can only get better unless I can’t find 1 push out of 10 this week. But the pressure’s off. I’ve been talking about the lack of exciting/interesting matchups over the last few weeks but last week actually ended up being a little more interesting than anticipated. Maybe that’s why I’m a bit more optimistic about this week being exciting.

Thursday

Game 1: South Florida (-1) @ Rutgers
Pick: South Florida covers
Comment: I guess I like South Florida in this one. It’s really only notable because it’s on Thursday night. Going into the season I thought Rutgers had a good chance to win the Big East and grab the BCS bid because their schedule was so favorable. It hasn’t quite worked out that way and Rutgers really hasn’t shown much. Of course they really haven’t had too many opportunities to show anything. They opened the season with a devastating blowout loss to Cincinnati at home. Over the following 5 weeks they played 4 games and won all of them. However, those 4 wins came against Howard, FIU, and Texas Southern at home. The lone road win was over Maryland. In week 7 they finally played their second game against a reasonable opponent, this one too at home, and they promptly lost to Pitt. Since then they have won on the road against Army and Connecticut. 6 wins is about the minimum they could have imagined having at this point. After 12 days off they will now play yet another home game, as South Florida rolls into town led by their redshirt freshman QB. The Bulls haven’t played a daunting schedule either and they’ve lost to both of the better than average teams in the Big East (Cinci at home; Pitt on the road) by a combined 44 points. On the other hand, they do have a decent win, beating West Virginia by 11 at home their last time out. They also have already won 3 times on the road this season, though winning at Western Kentucky, Florida State, and Syracuse is not overly impressive. USF will have had 13 days off by the time Thursday comes around. This could be a sloppy game. I’ll take South Florida because they haven’t been quite as unimpressive as Rutgers this season, and because the Knights are just 4-7 at home against teams from BCS conferences and the WAC over the last 3 years.

Friday

Game 2: West Virginia (+8.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati covers
Comment: This game would be much more interesting if we were talking about Rich Rod’s Mountaineers and not Bill Stewart’s. Cinci is coming off of an uncharacteristically close win against Connecticut at home last Saturday night. They have two quarterbacks they feel good about but after giving up 20 points or less in their first 8 games, the Bearcat defense allowed 45 last week. The good news is that West Virginia is no longer an explosive team. In the past 4 weeks they have averaged 22 points per game against Marshall, UConn, USF, and Louisville. After losing by 11 at South Florida, WV managed just a 17-9 win over lowly L-Ville at home last Saturday. Before last week Cinci had won all 8 games by at least 8 points, including 7 by double digits. I think they’ll get back to winning by double digits again on Friday night in a game that won’t be as competitive as viewers will hope.

Saturday

Game 3: Florida (-16) @ South Carolina
Pick: Florida covers
Comment: Steve Spurrier has had a wonderful career in football with numerous highs. He has also had some notable lows. His overall stay at South Carolina hasn’t exactly been one of the worst points of his career but his consistent mediocrity at SC juxtaposed with the Uber success of Urban Meyer and Florida has made it one of the low points of the Ol’ Ball Coach’s career because it is so obvious and so impossible to ignore. The Gators are basically 5 wins away from establishing themselves as one of the greatest powers in modern sports history. As it applies to Spurrier, Urban Meyer is 5 wins away from tripling the number of National Championships won by Stevie in his 12 years at Florida, and doing it in just five seasons. As much as this all pains me, I have to admit, that deserves a wow. And it has to hurt just a bit for Spurrier. And what about this? Without question, the low point of Spurrier’s football career was his eventual failure as head coach of the Washington Redskins. What if he had stayed at Florida? Do you think he wishes he had stayed? An even better question: do you think Florida fans wish he had stayed? During the 3-year long Ron Zook era this would have been a dumb question. What’s incredible is that at this moment it’s an even dumber question, but the implied response has changed. Instead of Spurrier’s departure being an end of an era of unimagined success for Florida fans and a return to the ordinary, his departure can now be seen as a necessary step towards the unfathomable (and torturous for the rest of us) level of success that they now enjoy. And Spurrier knows all of this to be true. Everyone knows that the biggest day in the history of Florida football was the day that Spurrier became the head coach at his alma mater. But the biggest day in the history of Steve Spurrier may have been the day he stepped down from that post.

At this point I find myself expecting Spurrier to announce any day now that this will be his last season at South Carolina, and presumably his last season as a coach. The Gamecocks are in the midst of another stumble down the stretch of the season. In his first season in Columbia back in 2005, Spurrier had the Gamecocks at 7-3, having won 5 straight games, all in the SEC, including an upset of a ranked Tennessee team in Knoxville. That hot streak was topped off by the ultimate win for Spurrier in his return to the SEC: a 30-22 upset of the #12 Gators—his Gators—in front of his new hometown fans at Williams Brice Stadium. Not only was this a huge win for South Carolina, it soured Urban Meyer’s first season in Gainesville, as the loss knocked the Gators out of the SEC Championship Game! It turns out that this will almost certainly be the high point of Spurrier’s 2nd coaching career in the SEC. Heading into the season finale, the Gamecocks were ranked for the first time all season and they would be at home against 6-4 Clemson, with a chance to finish off Spurrier’s great first season with a win over an arch rival who had dominated them over the last decade. It came down to a few kicks here and there but in the end the Cocks lost at home, 13-9, Tommy Bowden kept his job, and South Carolina wound up 7-4 and in the Independence Bowl. In Shreveport, the GC’s led 28-7 before Mizzu rallied for a stunning 38-31 win. With losses in the final two games, South Carolina ended Spurrier’s first season a somewhat disappointing 7-5. They had gone to their first bowl game since 2001 (remember South Carolina and Clemson decided not to accept bowl bids following the brawl on the field in the 2004 season finale) but they were just 1 victory better than their 6-5 record in Lou Holtz’ final season the year before.

The following season South Carolina began the season 5-2 but in the meat of the schedule they lost 3 straight and wound up 8-5. The season (and the fates of Spurrier, Meyer, Florida, et al) was nearly transformed when Spurrier and the GCs came literally inches from shocking the Gators for the 2nd year in a row. This time it would have been much bigger and much more damaging to Florida. The Gators were #6 at the time and a 2nd loss would have put them out of the hunt for the National Championship. But the Gators hung on in the Swamp, 17-16, thanks to some blocked kicks and some penalties. A win over rival Clemson and a victory in the Liberty Bowl helped to salvage the season for Spurrier and the Cocks, as they improved their record by a win from the year before. Then in 2007 South Carolina came in without much hype and midway through the season it looked like Spurrier was going to pull a dark horse SEC East title out of his hat. After opening the season unranked, the GCs won 6 of their first 7 games, knocking off #11 UGA on the road, as well as #8 Kentucky, and their only loss was a fairly impressive showing at #2 LSU. They were 6-1 and had risen to the #6 ranking in the country as they hosted Vanderbilt as a 13.5 point favorite. Spurrier’s offense imploded and the Cocks were leveled by a disastrous 17-6 defeat at the hands of the Dors. The Cocks would go on to lose their final 5 games—including an overtime loss in Knoxville, a 51-31 loss to the Gators at home, and a 2 point loss against rival Clemson at home in the season finale--to finish the season 6-6 and spend bowl season at home. Last year SC opened with a 34-0 win over NC State but they lost to Vandy again the next week as the #24 team in the country. But South Carolina ended with a 7-3 record after 10 games and they were ranked #24 again as they traveled to the Swamp to play those Gators again. This time there would be no upset. This time there would be no scare. This time Spurrier found himself on the other end of the type of beating he had commanded his Gators to deal out on so many teams back in his day. The final score was 56-6. The next week SC lost by 17 against Clemson and they were defeated by 21 in the Outback Bowl against Iowa, as they dropped their final 3 games to finish up 7-6.

To this point the most wins Spurrier has led the GC’s to in any season is 8; 1 less than the 9 wins that Lou Holtz directed SC to in 2001. In fact, Spurrier has yet to achieve a season as good as Holtz’s 2nd best season (8-4 in 2000) at SC. Spurrier has won 7 games or less every year but 2006 and his teams have lost at least 5 games each season. This year SC started out strong again, winning 5 of 6, including a stunning victory over preseason darling Ole Miss. SC was 5-1 a few weeks ago but they have lost 3 of their last 4 (the only win coming at home against Vandy by just 4 points). In their last 2 games the Cocks have been soundly on the road by Tennessee and Arkansas, a couple of programs that appear to have overtaken South Carolina in terms of upward momentum. At 6-4, the Cocks are bowl eligible but if they do not beat either Florida or Clemson at home over the final few weeks they may not be included in the postseason. Even if Spurrier beat Florida and then SC rival Clemson to finish 8-4, if he retired at the end of the season his time at SC would have to be deemed a major disappointment. However, if SC can figure out a way to upset Florida this Saturday, it would throw a major wrench in Florida’s plans to win another NC. This might just be the Ol’ Ball Coach’s last hurrah. But that’s unlikely. The Gators are rolling and in their last two meetings with SC they’ve won by 20 and by 50, outscoring the Cocks 107-37. I like the Gators to win by 3 TD’s or more.

Game 4: Idaho (+31) @ Boise State
Pick: Idaho beats the spread
Comment: The Potato Bowl baby! At least that’s what I’m calling it. I picked the Broncos lose exactly zero games during the regular season this year. That looks like a good call so far, as they are 9-0 and heavily favored to win their final 4 games and finish 13-0. I picked the Vandals to win exactly zero games this year. That pick looks not quite as good so far, as they have won 7 of their first 10, and have a decent chance to win 8, as they host Utah State after a bye in their season finale. The Vandals were undefeated in WAC play until they gave up 70 to Nevada in a 25 point defeat. Last week they lost by 10 at home to Fresno State and Boise State has won 4 games by at least 35 points this season so the spread is not too big. Idaho is actually 17-20-1 all-time against Boise State but they’ve lost the last 10, including the last 5 on the blue turf by an average score of 59-20. Over the last 5 years, the closest score has been a 26 point loss in Moscow in 2006. Last year it was just 17-10 at halftime but the final score was 45-10. Boise has allowed a couple of teams to hang around this season but they are almost unbeatable at home. If Idaho were to win this game it would be one of the greatest upsets in sports history. I’m predicting the Vandals to dig deep, play the best game in the history of their program, and stay within 30 points.

Game 5: Iowa (+17) @ Ohio State
Pick: Ohio State covers
Comment: Interesting spread. I wonder what it would be if Ricky Stanzi was playing. Iowa is crippled and coming off a crushing loss at home to Northwestern that killed their dreams of an undefeated season, a National Championship, and perhaps even a BCS bowl. The Buckeyes are coming off of an impressive 24-7 win at Penn State and they have another Big Ten title in their sights. After opening the season with a 4 point win over Navy and a 3 point loss to USC, the Bucks have gone 7-1, with each of their 7 wins coming by at least 17 points. I expect them to roll over the Hawkeyes and finish them off.

Game 6: Stanford (+11) @ USC
Pick: USC covers
Comment: This is almost certainly the “weakest” Trojan team since Pete Carroll’s first year at USC in 2001. With that said, they are still pretty good, especially at home. Stanford is 1-3 on the road this year, with their only win coming at Wazu. In other words, they are 0-3 on the road. It may be difficult for Stanford to come back from their huge win over Oregon and play at the same level against Troy. I like USC by a couple of TD’s.

Game 7: Auburn (+4) @ Georgia
Pick: Georgia covers
Comment: Trust me; I don’t have much confidence in this pick. Traditionally homefield has meant nothing in this rivalry. The Dawgs have won 3 in a row over Auburn but this is not a normal Bulldawg team. Auburn has been up and down and I’m just hoping they are down this week and the Dawgs get the 6th win out of the way now.

Game 8: Texas Tech (+4) @ Oklahoma State
Pick: Texas Tech beats the spread
Comment: Who knows what to make of the Big XII this season. Both of these teams have been pretty good following some early season bumps in the road. Since losing back to back games to Texas and Houston, the Red Raiders have gone 4-1, with a random 22 point loss to A&M at home squeezed between 4 wins by at least 20 points. After losing at home to Houston in their 2nd game, the Cowboys have gone 6-1, with a 27 point loss to Texas the only defeat during that time. The home team usually wins this game. I’m just going with a gut feeling here.

Game 9: Miami (-3.5) @ North Carolina
Pick: Miami covers
Comment: UNC has a chance to make this a not-so-disappointing season if they can win out and finish 9-3. Miami has been inconsistent, crushing Georgia Tech one week and getting blown out by Virginia Tech the next. They came back with a win over Oklahoma but then lost at home to Clemson and barley hung on to beat Wake. The home team has had the upper hand in this series but I think the Canes will get it done against UNC

Game 10: Utah (+19.5) @ TCU
Pick: Utah beats the spread
Comment: TCU is starting to get the respect they deserve. The Frogs are 9-0 and 7 of their wins have come by 16 points or more. Utah was not as good as their record indicated last season and the same is true this year. Still, the Utes don’t lose by 20 very often. I think they can stay within 17 points or so. They could lose by 3 scores and still beat the spread and that’s what I’m predicting.

Moneyline Special

Tennessee over Mississippi: The Vols are 5 point underdogs on the road this Saturday. This is really just a gut feeling for me. Tennessee is 0-2 on the road this year but the losers of the Civil War have yet to impress anyone this season.

Notre Dame over Pittsburgh: The Irish are underdogs at Pitt this weekend by a full 7 points. Another gut feeling, although I think ND has more talent. After last week’s loss to Navy, ND needs to win out in order for the season to be considered anything but a major disappointment. It starts with the game at Pitt this weekend. No matter what happens, I think Fat Chuck will be around at least another season.

Tulane over Rice: Tulane is a 3 point road dog against Rice this weekend. I realize that Tulane blows and that their only win in their last 10 road games was a 1 point win over Army this season. I’m also aware that Rice nearly knocked off SMU on the road last week. However, Rice is 0-9 on the season, and before last week the closest they had come to avoiding defeat was 17 points. And by the way, Tulane’s last road win prior to the victory over Army this season was their last trip to Rice late in the 07 season.

Fresno State over Nevada: Fresno State is a 7 point underdog against Nevada on the road this Saturday. Another gut feeling. After losing their first 3 games by double digits, the Wolf Pack has won 6 straight. The Bulldogs lost 3 straight early in the year to fall to 1-3 but since then have won 5 straight. Fresno has won 8 of 10 over Nevada and I like them to pull off the upset this Saturday.

Marshall over Southern Mississippi: Marshall hosts Southern Miss as a 3 point dog this weekend. I might be grasping for straws (is that a phrase?) here but Southern Miss is 0-4 on the road this year and anything can happen in the C-USA, where mediocrity is king.

The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 9 Power Rankings

Power Rankings After Week 9

1. New Orleans 8-0 (1st)
2. Indianapolis 8-0 (2nd)
3. Minnesota 7-1 (3rd)
4. Pittsburgh 6-2 (5th)
5. New England 6-2 (6th)
6. Cincinnati 6-2 (7th)
7. Dallas 6-2 (12th)
8. Denver 6-2 (4th)
9. Atlanta 5-3 (9th)
10. Houston 5-4 (11th)
11. Baltimore 4-4 (8th)
12. Philadelphia 5-3 (10th)
13. San Diego 5-3 (15th)
14. Arizona 5-3 (16th)
15. New York Giants 5-4 (13th)
16. New York Jets 4-4 (14th)
17. Miami 3-5 (19th)
18. Carolina 3-5 (22nd)
19. Tennessee 2-6 (24th)
20. Buffalo 3-5 (21st)
21. Chicago 4-4 (20th)
22. San Francisco 3-5 (17th)
23. Green Bay 4-4 (18th)
24. Seattle 3-5 (23rd)
25. Jacksonville 4-4 (25th)
26. Washington 2-6 (26th)
27. Kansas City 1-7 (27th)
28. Oakland 2-6 (28th)
29. St. Louis 1-7 (29th)
30. Tampa Bay 1-7 (31st)
31. Cleveland 1-7 (30th)
32. Detroit 1-7 (32nd)

-Previous week’s ranking in parenthesis;

Moving Up: The Cowboys and Titans were the biggest climbers in my rankings this week, each moving up 5 spots. Dallas has now won 4 straight after their impressive win in Philly on Sunday night. Their only losses on the season are by 2 points against the Giants and by 7 at Denver. The Boys moved up 5 spots from 12th to 7th this week. The Titans won their 2nd straight game last week, this time winning on the road at San Francisco. They moved up 5 spots from 24th to 19th. Carolina gained 4 spots in my rankings this week despite losing by 10 to the Saints. This was mostly due to the poor performances of a number of teams in front of them. The Panthers rose 4 spots from 22nd to 18th this week.

Going Down: The 49ers and Packers took the biggest fall in my rankings this week, both dropping 5 spots following bad losses. Admittedly, Green Bay’s was far worse, as they lost to the Buccaneers—a team that appeared destined for 0-16 infamy—at home by 10 points. The Packers dropped 5 spots this week from 18th to 23rd. San Fran’s loss at home to the Titans was no beauty either. The Niners dropped 5 spots from 17th to 22nd this week. The Broncos fell 4 spots from 4th to 8th following their 2nd straight blowout loss, this time at home to the Steelers. The Ravens fell off 3 spots this week from 8th to 11th after they were soundly beaten by the Bengals.

The Divide: It seems that over the last few weeks the bottom third of the league has shown signs of rejoining the rest of the NFL. Either that or the middle of the pack has fallen down closer to the dregs. It’s probably a combination of both. Either way, we are about halfway through with the season and it seems like the NFL can be halved as well. There are about 16 teams that could reach the Super Bowl if they made it to the postseason and about 16 teams that would be no threat to reach the Super Bowl even if they were placed into the playoffs.

The College Football Blog: 2009 Season Résumé Rankings (After Week 10)

Season Résumé Rankings After Week 10

1. Alabama 9-0 (1st)
2. Texas 9-0 (2nd)
3. Florida 9-0 (3rd)
4. TCU 9-0 (5th)
5. Boise State 9-0 (6th)
6. Cincinnati 9-0 (7th)
7. Georgia Tech 9-1 (9th)
8. Iowa 9-1 (4th)
9. Houston 8-1 (NR)
10. Oregon 7-2 (8th)

Comments: Determining these rankings got a bit more difficult this week. It’s easy to rank all undefeated teams over all other teams as long as the schedules are somewhat similar. But it’s harder to choose between 1-loss teams and 2-loss teams. The top 3 teams remained the same this week. The 4th team, Iowa, lost for the first time this year and thus they were dropped below all undefeated teams. I then had to compare Iowa’s season against the other 1-loss teams and I decided that only Georgia Tech has had a more impressive season so far. Houston was the 3rd 1-loss team in the rankings this week. It was a hard choice considering the fact that the Cougars have a bad loss (by 17 at UTEP) and a very near loss against a disappointing Tulsa team. But when I looked at the other 1-loss teams there was really no other choice. Pitt’s loss at NC State is bad and their best wins are against Rutgers and South Florida. Utah’s loss at Oregon by 7 points is nothing to be ashamed of but their best win is probably an overtime victory at home against Air Force. They have several other not-too-impressive wins over weak teams. In the end I decided that Oregon’s 2-loss résumé was more impressive than the performances of Utah and Pittsburgh.

The College Football Blog: 2009 Power Rankings (After Week 10)

Power Rankings after Week 10

1. Florida 9-0 (1st)
2. Alabama 9-0 (2nd)
3. Texas 9-0 (3rd)
4. LSU 7-2 (4th)
5. TCU 9-0 (6th)
6. Georgia Tech 9-1 (5th)
7. Oregon 7-2 (7th)
8. USC 7-2 (8th)
9. Cincinnati 9-0 (10th)
10. Boise State 9-0 (11th)
11. Ohio State 8-2 (14th)
12. Arizona 6-2 (NR)
13. Iowa 9-1 (12th)
14. Oklahoma 6-4 (9th)
15. Penn State 8-2 (13th)

Out: Notre Dame (15th).

Comments: Things had been going along monotonously for a few weeks and then all of the sudden there were a lot of surprises last week. A lot of surprises and few impressive wins. Once again the biggest thing I learned was how little I know and how poor a system for determining anything meaningful this is. One thing that I try to keep in mind (and that might help you understand the logic behind my rankings) is that these rankings are based on a matchup that would take place outside of the week to week roller coaster of the season. These aren’t the rankings of which team is hottest or playing the best right now. Nor are these the rankings of which team has had the most impressive season so far. One of the main reasons that this system is flawed is that it’s so hard to determine how big of a role things like injuries, scheduling, and location have. If Oregon had had a week off separating their huge win over USC and their tough road game against Stanford would the outcome have been any different? Would the outcome have been different if Stanford had not had a week off before their game against Oregon? Are the struggles of teams like Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, and Boise State indicative of flaws in these teams or mental/physical fatigue from having to go out and prove something every week against teams with nothing to lose who could make their season by knocking one of these teams off? There’s no definitive answer to these questions and that’s why these rankings are a lot about gut feeling.

Top 3: My top 3 stayed the same this week and the only thing I feel really certain about is that Florida, Alabama, and Texas are the 3 strongest teams in the country (or the 3 best prepared to cover up their flaws).

4-10: After the big 3, the next 7 teams in the top 10 are all very talented teams capable of beating anyone. They are all also flawed to some extent. The one exception to this is the #5 team, TCU. These guys have been destroying the competition but I really don’t know much about them. All I know is that they have a dominant defense, they have met every challenge they’ve faced, and they have demolished opponents. LSU is not really great at anything but they are hard to beat. My view of them didn’t really change at all following their loss at Bama. They were a questionable call away from stealing that game. I’ve become a believer in Georgia Tech’s legitimacy but there were some troubling signs in the Wake Forrest game. Tech has been able to overcome their own mistakes but turnovers, a lack of a true passing game, and a questionable defense could do them in against an elite team. Oregon ran into a buzz saw on the road at Stanford but because of some of the reasons stated above, I didn’t drop them in my rankings. USC struggled on the road again last week and Cincinnati struggled to hold off UConn at home. Boise State could not put away Louisiana Tech and the Broncos seem to be having a hard time dealing with the pressure to play a perfect game when they have a chance to show everyone how good they are. And while Boise State clearly has more talent than anyone else in the WAC, I don’t think they have the talent of the top teams in the big conferences.

The Last 5: After the top ten it’s basically up for grabs. Ohio State has gotten things going recently and they dominated Penn State on the road last week. They have an inconsistent QB and offense but they’re still a great defensive team. I don’t know much about Arizona but they are 6-2 and really should be 7-1 (an INT off a receivers foot returned for a TD stole a win from them at Washington). They have played well on the road, unlike a lot of others teams in the country. I still think Iowa is very solid when healthy and they would have beaten Northwestern had their QB not been lost for the game in the 1st half. Yes, I know that their starting QB isn’t great or even very good, but the drop off from Ricky Stanzi to the backup was huge. Their offense was handcuffed by injuries to the offensive line and backfield already. Without Stanzi they were virtually paralyzed. My final 2 teams may seem to have no business in anyone’s top 15. Oklahoma has now lost 4 games and they just lost to a Nebraska team which lost to Iowa State. But if any team in the country has been crippled by injuries it’s Oklahoma. Now, the biggest injuries are season ending ones, and thus I consider those players lost forever when making up these rosters. But I would still take Oklahoma’s defense and talent and coaching over most other teams in a game on a neutral field 2 weeks from now if all the non-season ending injuries were healed. Penn State has been soundly beaten in their two biggest games this year, both at home. But at this point you could swap PSU with about 20 other teams and there would be little difference. I like Penn State over most of these other teams because of their defense and because they’ve been very consistent.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Jakey's Blog: Early November NBA Power Rankings

The Horsecollar gets some much needed help: another contributor! Here's the first ever edition of Jakey's Blog.


NBA Power Rankings
Jake Espenlaub

1.) Boston Celtics - 6-0 speaks for itself. They have Pierce, they have Allen,
they have Garnett, they have Wallace, but I think Rondo is what really makes
this team go. He can score when needed but he is becoming one of the best
passers in the NBA. He locks down other teams guards as well. Don’t be surprised
to see them come close to passing the “unbreakable” record of 72-10.

2.) Los Angeles Lakers – When you have Kobe Bryant, the game is easy. When you
have Artest locking down the games best, Bynum 20 and 10 and Odom making
everything click, the game is really easy. Sure, they have had some close games,
but don’t forget Gasol is yet to make an impact. As of now, they are #2. Come
the end of the season, I think they’ll surpass #1

3.) Denver Nuggets – The only undefeated outside of the Celtics, the Nuggets are
firing on all cylinders. Carmelo Anthony is making a prematurely early case for
the MVP, but he’s doing it nonetheless. Billups is his usual self and Lawson is
more than an adequate backup. He can fly. They can go 8 deep without losing
much. They look like a definite top 4 seed in the West. Tests this weekend
against the Heat and the Hawks will tell us more.

4.) Orlando Magic - They absolutely smoked Phoenix on Wednesday. Superman is
dominating once again, Vince has been solid in the 3 games he’s played and young
run Ryan Anderson is stepping up big time. Nelson and Reddick have been
consistent as well. If Vince clicks with Nelson and Howard they’ll be tough to
beat. Oh, and Rashard Lewis has yet to step on the floor. Scary.

5.) Atlanta Hawks – I may be biased because I’m from Atlanta, but the Hawks have
come out of the gates playing well. They are 4-1 with the lone loss coming to
the Lakers. Josh Smith is playing smart basketball, something Atlantians have
yet to see. Jamal Crawford has been eveyrhting he was supposed to be and more.
Joe Johnson is his usual self. Bibby’s in a little slump, but no reason to
worry, especially with Crawford. With Horford learning to score, look for the
Hawks to contend for a top 3 see, but be in a close fourth at seasons end.

6.) Phoenix Suns - Before the blowout loss to Orlando, they looked really good.
Nash is averaging 20-10 but I’m not sure they’ll be able to replace Shaq.
Stoudemire is averaging 19-8 and Grant Hill is looking very good, especially
since he is leading the team in rebounds. Barbosa can score and defend. We’ll
find out a lot when they visit Beantown to play the Celtics Friday night.

7.) Miami Heat – Sure, they’ve played a relatively easy schedule… but 4-1 is
4-1. Dwyane Wade is playing like Dwyane Wade, Chalmers is distributing and
playing defense. Haslem is owning the boards and playing well next to the other
O’Neal. Beasley looks like he’s coming into form. He’s the key to the team. If
he can become a star, they could be dangerous.

8.) Chicago Bulls – Luol Deng is becoming what he was supposed to be –- A
playmaker. He’s averaging 17.8 and 10.5. Rose is slumping a tad but he’s still
controlling the offense well. When he heats up, they’ll only get better. They
just beat the Cavs… They are very balanced.


9.) Cleveland Cavaliers – LeBron James’ team at #9? What? He’s a one man team
now, almost averaging a triple double. He’s leading the team in the big 3
categories and Shaq has been a disappointment. Mo Williams is scoring but not
doing too much else. They are 3-3, then again, they have LeBron. They’ll work it
out.

10.) Dallas Mavericks – They looked impressive beating LA, but have not been
great outside of that game. They’re getting it done… I guess. Nobody really
deserves to be here though, it could have been a power 9, or maybe less. Dirk is
playing like an all-star. Kidd is getting his assists, but seems to have lost
his ability to score. It seems when Jason Terry scores around 20, but sometimes
he tends to hog it and the offense doesn’t click. Marion has slumped a little
bit, but that is to be expected.