Wednesday, February 9, 2011

The College Football Blog: 2010 Season Awards

2010 College Football Awards

Well, it’s taken me a while but I’ve finally finished my 2nd annual Horse Collar College Football Awards. When I went back and looked at last year’s awards I was shocked to realize that I had gotten them out in December, before the start of the bowl season. I’m glad I waited until after the National Championship Game this year. The downside is that I’m just now getting the awards out and college football is not exactly the topic of the day at this time. I’ve been focused on the NFL playoffs lately and it’s taken me over a month since I started to get these done.

In case you didn’t catch my awards last year, I should explain that my awards probably look different than most. For my “of the year” awards, I usually try and base my decision on who I think performed the best this year, and not necessarily who I think the best player is. On the other hand, for my All-Horse Collar Team (this is my version of the All-American Team) I’m focusing more on who I think the best player is and not putting as much emphasis on who had the best season. In addition, I try not to be overly biased against players from the weaker conferences. These various issues were not nearly as big of a deal this season, as there really weren’t many players from outside of the major conferences who warranted attention, and to be honest, not that many different players had great years.

The structure of the awards is very similar to last year. One change I have made involves the naming of my “of the year” awards. Once again, my “Most Outstanding Football Player” award will be called “The Brent Musburger Most Outstanding Football Player Award.” That’s kind of my version of the Heisman. However, this year I have decided to dedicate each of my “of the year” awards. After trying to think of something funny for quite a while, I decided that I would just name the awards after former players who have been forgotten to some extent (or at least are not talked about very often). You’ll notice that many of them were more famous as NFL players than college players. This actually makes sense to me because I tend to forget the names of college players after a few years if they do not go on to the pros. Plus, the awards that are given out in real life (like the Maxwell, Thorpe, etc.) are named after famous college players, so I wanted to go in a different direction.

As I did last year, I’m going to be picking an All-Horse Collar offensive line rather than choosing a tackle, a guard, a center, etc. The reason that I do this is simple: in all honesty, I don’t have any idea who the best left guard has been this season. Nobody does unless they somehow have access to coaching film. I don’t have access to these films, so I find it’s easier to pick the entire offensive line of one team who has done a good job this season. Finally, as I always do, I’ll be handing out some team awards just for fun and ranking some of the best and worst moments of the season.

Now this is very important. Once again this year I selected the “best game” from each conference and tried to give a brief comment about what made each game so good. As usual, I got a little carried away in some of the “best game” recaps, particularly concerning the Conference-USA. This always happens to me. I start off doing fairly succinct recaps, and then somewhere along the line I get sucked in by some sequence of events in a WAC game, and I just start going play-by-play. Before I realize what has happened I have 10 pages of material that really isn’t necessary. But I can’t bear to leave it out because that would mean I wrote it all for nothing (shut up!) and no one will ever read it (I said shut up!). I was planning on including the long recaps but eventually it got ridiculous and I decided just to make it another entry. I have brief comments about the “best games” in this entry, but if you want the hardcore, in-depth recap of the action you need to check out the “Best Games of the 2010 College Football Season” entry.

Finally, I have to add—as I seem to do in every awards entry I do on this blog—that I was nowhere near as satisfied with this year’s awards as I was with last year's. There just weren’t that many options and that meant that I couldn’t spread things around the way I did last year. There are a lot of repeats in the awards and All-Horse Collar teams, and that was a bit boring to be honest. However, it was still pretty fun. And if you happen to stumble across this blog entry somewhere out there in cyberspace, I hope that you will be entertained by my award selections as well.

Conference Awards

ACC

Offensive Player of the Year: Tyrod Taylor-QB-Virginia Tech.

Runner Up: Russell Wilson-QB-NC State.

Defensive Player of the Year: Da’Quan Bowers-DE-Clemson.

Runner Up: Jayron Hosley-CB-Virginia Tech.

Coach of the Year: Jimbo Fisher-Florida State.

Runner Up: Ralph Friedgen-Maryland.

Most Surprising Team: Maryland.

Runner Up: NC State.

Most Disappointing Team: North Carolina.

Runner Up: Miami.

Best Moment: December 31st. Florida State beats South Carolina in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. This was a big game for the ACC. They haven’t had much success against that other major conference of the southeast area in recent years. This was a battle between the losers of the ACC title game and the SEC title game. ACC fans could therefore make the case that this was a matchup of the 2nd best teams from each conference. Also, Florida State—along with Miami—is one of the most important teams in the ACC. The program has declined over the last decade and the conference has gone down with it. This was a bounce back year for FSU. To top it all off, the Noles got to beat a certain SEC coaching legend (Steve Spurrier) in this one.

Worst Moment: September 6th through September 11th. Virginia Tech—easily the conference’s strongest team since the expansion from 9 teams to 12 teams—loses the big opener to Boise State on a national stage in their own back yard, and less than a week later, the Hokies lose at home to James Madison of the FCS. In a sense, this moment would linger on throughout the year, as VT went on to go through conference play undefeated and win the conference championship, before getting blown out by Stanford in the Orange Bowl.

Best Game: 3-way tie.

Week 9: FSU @ NC State. A big Thursday night game with major conference implications. NC State overcomes a 14-point deficit and hangs on to win 28-24.

Week 10: UNC @ FSU. A back and forth shootout won by the Heels, 37-35.

Week 12: NC State @ UNC. The Heels looked to play spoiler against their in-state rivals, but the Wolfpack hang on for a 29-25 win to stay alive in the hunt for the Atlantic Division Title.

Comments: As bad as the first two weeks of the season were for VT, in reality, the worst moment of the season for the ACC was the UNC fiasco. I decided not to go with it because it’s so hard to describe it as a “moment.” It felt more like a millennium. The case dragged on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on. I’m pretty sure a few of the suspended players remained in limbo throughout the season without ever being officially declared ineligible for good.

And it wasn’t just the fact that the team dealt with both an “agent violation” and a “cheating” scandal (or whatever it was) that involved two-dozen players at the same time. The reason it was so awful was that this team was absolutely stacked, and most of the guys effected by the sanctions were either stars, starters, or key backups. This team had more talent and experience on defense than any team in the last decade and they never even played a single down together as a unit this season. What a waste.

You can almost always make the case for Frank Beamer being the coach of the year in the ACC. You would have a particularly strong case this season after the way they responded to that miserable 0-2 start. By the way: who the hell scheduled a game with a small school from inside the state just 5 days after an exceedingly hyped season opener against Boise State in primetime? That’s just asking to be “App Stated.”

Wilson and Taylor were really close for Off POY. I went with Taylor because of his excellent 24-5 TD-INT ratio. Bowers was a runaway winner for Def POY, leading the nation in sacks with 15. Hosley led the nation with 9 picks and had a PR TD.

Big XII

Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Blackmon-WR-Oklahoma State.

Runner Up: Ryan Broyles-WR-Oklahoma.

Defensive Player of the Year: Von Miller-LB-Texas A&M.

Runner Up: Jamell Fleming-CB-Oklahoma.

Coach of the Year: Mike Gundy-Oklahoma State.

Runner Up: Mike Sherman-Texas A&M.

Most Surprising Team: Oklahoma State.

Runner Up: Texas A&M.

Most Disappointing Team: Texas.

Runner Up: Nebraska.

Best Moment: January 1st. The Sooners spank UConn in the Fiesta Bowl. Kind of a weak best moment, but this wasn’t a great year for the Big XII. Still, Oklahoma needed to win a BCS game, especially against an overmatched team like Connecticut. It was important that they win and win convincingly, and they were able to do that.

Worst Moment: September 25th. The roof caves in on the Longhorns, as Texas loses at home to UCLA, 34-12. While the Longhorns were not playing great going into this game, they were still 3-0, and nothing that had occurred so far hinted of what was to come. There was no slow and steady decline. It began with a total disaster, a hideous loss to a bad UCLA team at home, and they would go on to lose 7 of 9 games. Texas was the only program left that seemed to be truly immune from having a down year, but that belief was destroyed this season.

Best Game: 3-way tie.

Week 5: Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State. A Thursday night battle between a pair of surprising 3-0 teams still looking to prove themselves. Oklahoma State wins 38-35 on a 40-yard FG at the buzzer.

Week 10: Nebraska @ Iowa State. Could it happen again? No. Nebraska breaks up a 2-point try in overtime to hang on for a 31-30 win.

Week 13: Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State. Bedlam. With the Big XII South title on the line, the Sooners win another crazy game in this rivalry, 47-41.

Comments: In my opinion, the real worst moment of the year for the Big XII came before the season even began, when Nebraska and Colorado announced they would be leaving the conference following this season, and the remaining teams made the bizarre choice of staying together as a 10-team conference without a title game. But again, this really wasn’t one moment, as all of us who witnessed the grotesque summer of conference realignment can attest to.

Another awful moment was Nebraska’s pathetic effort in the Holiday Bowl against Washington, as they lost 19-7 to a 6-6 team who they had beaten 56-21 in Seattle earlier in the season. However, considering that it was Big Red’s last game as a member of the Big XII, it’s hard to say that it really had that much of an effect on the conference.

You might question how I can have Nebraska as the 2nd most disappointing team in the conference, after they went back to the conference title game ended up 10-4. And, after all, they were having to replace one of the most dominant defensive players in recent history. Well, the first thing to understand is that there really weren’t that many disappointing teams in the Big XII this season other than Texas. Also, I thought Nebraska could have easily gone undefeated in the regular season if they hadn’t dropped 15 passes against Texas and committed 200 penalties against A&M. Then there was that inexcusable, embarrassing performance against Washington in the Holliday Bowl.

You also have to add in the problems between head coach Bo Pelini and his QB; head coach Bo Pelini and administration; head coach Bo Pelini and his AD; and head coach Bo Pelini against several hundred other people. It’s most unfortunate because Pelini has turned the program around and made the Cornhuskers winners again.

I went with Ryan Broyles as runner up for Off POY over the QB’s from Oklahoma and Oklahoma State because he had a terrific year and deserved some recognition. I have the QB’s ranked ahead of him in the Brent Musburger standings because I place more importance on leading and winning for that award, and it is my opinion that QB’s have more of an influence on the game than receivers. So if it’s a tossup between a receiver and a QB, I’d usually go with the QB for the most outstanding player award. I think offensive and defensive player of the year awards were created so that non-QB’s could be rewarded. No, I’m kidding about that, but at least in the NFL you see the offensive player of the year awards going to running backs and wideouts more than you do the MVP awards.

Big East

Offensive Player of the Year: Geno Smith-QB-West Virginia.

Runner Up: Jordan Todman-RB-Connecticut.

Defensive Player of the Year: Lawrence Wilson-LB-Connecticut.

Runner Up: Johnny Patrick-CB-Louisville.

Coach of the Year: Randy Edsall-Connecticut.

Runner Up: Doug Marrone-Syracuse.

Most Surprising Team: Syracuse.

Runner Up: Louisville.

Most Disappointing Team: Cincinnati.

Runner Up: Rutgers.

Best Moment: November 27th. South Florida knocks off Miami on the road in OT. The Bulls have had big wins before, but many saw this as perhaps the biggest in their history. They had been 0-2 against Miami going into this game (having been outscored 58-17 and outgained 752-394) but they were up to the task this time.

Worst Moment: Tie (Let’s be honest: it’s tough to narrow it down to just one moment).

September 18th. Connecticut loses at Temple by the score of 30-16. They had lost 30-10 to Michigan in the opener and the loss to the Owls put them at 1-2. Of course, they would go on to win the Big East and play in a BCS game. But again, I’m not sure that’s necessarily a great thing for the conference.

December 28th. The Mountaineers fail to show up for Bill Stewart’s last game as head coach. West Virginia ended the regular season on a 4-game win streak to finish 9-3. But I guess they weren’t too excited to be playing in the Champs Sports Bowl, because they went down to NC State 23-7, and it looked like they thought it was a scrimmage in the first week of summer practice.

Best Game: Week 14: Connecticut @ South Florida. The Huskies drive for a late FG to win 19-16 and clinch the conference title and a BCS bid.

Comments: Well, we all know what was truly the worst moment for the Big East this season. It was also the worst moment in college football this season. It was the worst moment for college football in at least the last 10 years. It occurred on October 16th during the Rutgers-Army game in East Rutherford, when Scarlet Knights DT Eric LeGrand suffered an injury to his spine that left him paralyzed from the neck down. This is going to sound naive and maybe even hard to believe, but I honestly had gotten to the point where I never thought we would see another player paralyzed.

Don’t get me wrong, I thought the possibility existed that we might see a player die on the field, but I was worried about a hit to the head causing some sort of catastrophe like we’ve seen in boxing. I thought the days of players suffering fluke neck injuries and ending up paralyzed were over. Seeing the cart come onto the field and a player stabilized and lifted on a board onto the cart no longer scared me. It was routine. As soon as I saw that the player was conscious, I figured he would be fine because training staffs and medics are so well prepared to deal with that sort of thing today, and there have been so many advances in medicine and the treatment of spinal injuries.

But I was wrong, and obviously it was ridiculous to have thought that way. I tried to limit the “worst moments” to losses and that’s why I didn’t have this up there, but this was the worst moment in all of sports that I can think of in many, many years.

The moments didn’t get any better for the Big East following the end of the regular season. Connecticut failed to compete against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and they really didn’t look like they belonged. Then Randy Edsall dipped out on the Huskies following the loss, taking the head coaching job at Maryland mere hours later. He did not mention his coaching plans to the team after the game and did not accompany the team on the plane home. He reportedly called some players but made no formal goodbye. Edsall built the UConn program and had been in Storrs for 12 years. Weeks later a major booster asked the athletic program to give back a large amount of money he had donated to the school. The booster was unhappy with the hiring of Paul Pasqualoni to replace Edsall, and he stated that the only reason Edsall left was because he did not get along with the AD.

But the Connecticut controversy was nothing compared to the Pittsburgh coaching change debacle. After forcing out the Wannstash, Pitt hired Miami of Ohio coach Mike Haywood as his replacement. This was a questionable move to begin with and it didn’t take long for things to go from disappointment to disaster. Just two weeks after being hired as the new head coach at Pittsburgh, Haywood was arrested for felony domestic abuse and fired the next day. Doh! Ten days later the Panthers hired Tulsa coach Todd Graham. He has managed to last longer than Haywood.

If you’re surprised to see Geno Smith’s name next to “Offensive Player of the Year” don’t worry; I was too. But the guy was 2nd in the Big East in passing yards per game and TD’s, and he led the conference in completion percentage and QB rating. He had a 24-7 TD-INT ratio.

Big Ten

Offensive Player of the Year: Denard Robinson-QB-Michigan.

Runner Up: Mikel Leshoure-RB-Illinois.

Defensive Player of the Year: Ryan Kerrigan-DE-Purdue.

Runner Up: Micah Hyde-CB-Iowa.

Coach of the Year: Mark Dantonio-Michigan State.

Runner Up: Bret Bielema-Wisconsin.

Most Surprising Team: Michigan State.

Runner Up: Illinois.

Most Disappointing Team: Iowa.

Runner Up: Penn State.

Best Moment: January 4th. The Buckeyes snap the SEC skid (barley). Ohio State has lost some big bowl games over the last few years, but they certainly looked like the experienced team that they were in this year’s Sugar Bowl. By contrast, this was the biggest game Arkansas had played in under Bobby Petrino. The Hogs played like a jittery and unprepared team during the entire first half of the game. There were at least a half a dozen brutal drops, and as many as 15 catchable balls that were not reeled in. Surely the Buckeyes deserve a lot of credit for hanging on and getting the win. But this was certainly one of those games where you can say that the losing team (Arkansas) “should” have won. Late in the game, it was more about the plays that Arkansas didn’t make than the plays that Ohio State did make.

In the end, the Hogs choked. It’s as simple as that. But the Buckeyes won. Ohio State had gotten a rather large monkey off of their backs the year before when they beat Oregon in the Rose Bowl. That ended a lengthy skid of BCS bowl defeats. They got another monkey off of their backs this year by beating an SEC team in a BCS bowl.

Worst Moment: January 1st. On 1/1/11 the Big Ten (or Eleven…or I guess 12 now) goes big zero. The first day of 2011 was not a good one for the Big Ten. You know, in the end, it wasn’t an absolutely awful bowl season for the Big Ten. The best team in the conference—Ohio State—beat an SEC team in a BCS bowl, Iowa got an unexpected win over a 10-2 Missouri team, and Illinois won easily over Baylor to finish with a winning record. 3-5 is not a good record, but at least the wins that they did get were fairly meaningful.

Unfortunately for the Legends and Leaders, all 5 losses occurred during about an 8-hour period, on the biggest TV day of the entire college football season. The day began with Northwestern losing (as expected) to Texas Tech in the Ticket City Bowl. This one actually could have been much worse, as the Red Raiders led by 22 at one point in the second half, before the Wildcats cut the deficit to 7 points twice in the 4th quarter. The final score was 45-38.

Things really went downhill when the Capital One Bowl began. Alabama humiliated Michigan State, who came into the game 11-1 and co-champions of the Big Ten. The Tide led 28-0 at the half and scored the first 49 points in the game before Michigan State finally got on the board with 5 minutes left. Bama won it 49-7, outgaining the Spartans 546-171. This was a very bad loss for the Big Ten because it did a lot to delegitimize Michigan State as a truly great team.

As Bama was whipping up on Sparty, another team from the Great Lakes State was being taken to the woodshed. This beating would be just about as humiliating as the one Bama put on Michigan State. The Michigan Wolverines, with all of their history and tradition, went up against an upstart Mississippi State team in the Gator Bowl and got absolutely raped. Michigan was on top 14-10 at the end of an exciting 1st quarter, but the Maroon Dogs would outscore Rich Rod’s boys 42-0 the rest of the way, putting a 52-14 exclamation point on that slimy snake’s tenure in Ann Arbor.

Penn State would also go down to an SEC team that day, as the Gators beat Joe Pa and his men 37-24 in the Outback Bowl. This one was actually closer than the final score indicated. Penn State led by 7 with about 20 minutes left, but Florida outscored them 20-0 over the remaining time. The Nittany Lions actually outgained Florida, but they committed 5 turnovers, including a pick-six that put the game away with less than a minute to go. While this loss may have expected, I thought it was a killer because it was certainly not a mismatch.

That made the Big Ten oh-for-four on the day and 0-3 against the SEC, having been outscored 138-45 in those 3 games. The conference had one last shot to salvage something from New Year’s Day, but once again they would be disappointed. Wisconsin—11-1 and a co-champion of the conference—faced TCU from the Mountain West Conference in the Rose Bowl later that afternoon. The Horned Frogs triumphed 21-19. The Big Ten finished New Year’s Day 0-5.

There’s no shame in losing to an undefeated TCU team, but there’s still something a bit different about losing to a team from a non-BCS conference. Plus, it was another BCS loss for the Big Ten. Two of the three co-champions of the conference had lost on the day, with Michigan State losing 49-7 and the Badgers falling to a team from the Mountain West. It was a most humbling opening day of the year for the Big Ten.

Best Game: Week 10: Illinois @ Michigan. The Wolverines outlast Illinois in the highest scoring game of the year, winning 69-67 in triple OT.

Comments: I guess the day that the NCAA suspended all of those Ohio State players for the first 5 games of next year was a bad moment as well. But again, off the field.

You may be surprised not to see Michigan as one of my most disappointing teams, but I really was not expecting much from them this season. I thought Iowa was one of the most disappointing teams in the entire country. And Penn State was noticeably average this season. Michigan was basically the same as they were throughout Rich Rod’s tenure.

Speaking of Michigan, I had a hard time giving the Off POY award to Robinson, even though his numbers made him the obvious choice. My issue with Robinson is over his toughness/durability. Did he ever play a single game this season start to finish? I know for certain he came out of every Michigan game that I saw. But there was no getting around it. He was the top offensive player. He had just 4 fewer rushing yards than Leshoure while also throwing for over 2500 yards and 18 TD’s. He had just 200 fewer passing yards than Terrelle Pryor on 32 less attempts, while gaining 952 more yards on the ground than the Buckeye QB.

Conference USA

Offensive Player of the Year: Damaris Johnson-WR-Tulsa.

Runner Up: Jeffery Godfrey-QB-Central Florida.

Defensive Player of the Year: Vinny Curry-DE-Marshall.

Runner Up: Bruce Miller-DE-Central Florida.

Coach of the Year: George O’Leary-Central Florida.

Runner Up: Todd Graham-Tulsa.

Most Surprising Team: East Carolina.

Runner Up: Tulane.

Most Disappointing Team: Houston.

Runner Up: SMU.

Best Moment: December 31st. Conference champ Central Florida knocks off Georgia in the Liberty Bowl. This was a tough one for me personally, but it was a big win for UCF and Conference USA.

Worst Moment: December 30th. Conference title game loser SMU loses at home to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. This was pathetic. I hate to be so hard on the Mustangs, as they have only recently been able to compete after the death penalty ruling back in the 80’s. But then again, these guys should still be hungry, regardless of the fact that they were coming off of a disappointing loss in the conference title game. I don’t know how a team that put up 24 on TCU could only score 14 on Army. Now, playing at home in a bowl game is a bit of a double edged sword. For one thing, it has to feel less special and nothing at all like a “reward.” Plus, when players have time off at home during the holidays they tend to get a bit soft. However, when you have more talent and you’re playing at home in a bowl game it should be enough to win.

Best Game: 5-way tie.

Week 1: Tulsa @ East Carolina. A typical Conference USA shootout. It’s a brutal way for Tulsa to start the season, and a great way for ECU to start the Ruffin McNeil era, as the Pirates win on a Hail Mary on the last play of the game, 51-49.

Week 6: ECU @ Southern Miss. A huge early C-USA East battle turns into one of the wildest, weirdest games of the season, as ECU hangs on for a 44-43 win.

Week 9: UAB @ Southern Miss. An unexpectedly entertaining shootout between 2-5 UAB and 5-2 Southern Miss. The Blazers go for 2 in double OT to stun the Golden Eagles, 50-49.

Week 13: Southern Miss @ Tulsa. Another shootout in the C-USA, this one in the regular season finale, with Tulsa winning it 56-50.

Week 13: SMU @ East Carolina. A shootout in the regular season finale that went into OT. SMU pulled it out in overtime, winning 45-38 to claim the C-USA West Division title.

Comments: Yes, I realize that Tulane won 4 games, but that’s twice as many wins as I expected. I know SMU made it to the conference title game but a 7-7 season was certainly a disappointment when they had most of last year’s team back. And two of their losses were two service academy teams. I hate to be hard on them, but if this season wasn’t a setback it was certainly a disappointment. I don’t like to be tough on Houston either because their season was derailed by the season ending injury to stud senior QB Case Keenum. But they had 14 starters back from a 10-win team and ended up having their first losing season since 2003.

MAC

Offensive Player of the Year: Chad Spann-RB-NIU.

Runner Up: Chandler Harnish-QB-NIU.

Defensive Player of the Year: Evan Harris-LB-Miami (Ohio).

Runner Up: Sean Baker-FS-Ball State.

Coach of the Year: Jerry Kill-Northern Illinois.

Runner Up: Mike Haywood-Miami (Ohio).

Most Surprising Team: Miami (Ohio).

Runner Up: Toledo.

Most Disappointing Team: Ball State.

Runner Up: Kent State.

Best Moment: January 6th. Surprise conference champ Miami of Ohio beats Middle Tennessee State in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. With NIU getting upset by Miami of Ohio in the MAC title game, I thought it was good for the conference that the surprise champs were able to win their bowl game. Maybe beating a 6-6 team from the SBC isn’t a big deal, but beating them is much better than losing to them. And it was nice that they were able to win despite being abandoned by their head coach prior to the game. Mike Haywood then added insult to injury by putting a cloud over his former team with his arrest on felony domestic violence charges. It was good to see the team win without him.

Worst Moment: December 3rd. Northern Illinois gets knocked off by Miami of Ohio in the conference title game. For the 2nd time in the last 3 years, a team with an 8-0 record in conference that had dominated the rest of the league during the regular season and came into the MAC title game nationally ranked, got upset in fluky fashion by a surprise team that was somewhat lucky to be there. For many reasons, NIU’s loss to Miami (OH) was nowhere near as bad as Ball State’s loss to Buffalo in 2008, but it still had to be disappointing for the conference.

The one thing that actually was worse about this year’s upset was that while BSU fell down early to Buffalo and never really came close to winning, the Huskies had this game won until an outrageously fluky play kept Miami of Ohio alive with a minute and a half to play. They would score the winning touchdown two plays later. Oh, and Jerry Kill abandoned the team before their bowl game, leaving both the winner and the loser of the MAC title game without their coaches in their bowl games.

Best Game: Conference Championship Game: Miami (Ohio) vs. Northern Illinois. A disappointing result for the conference, but a good game with an exciting ending, as Miami of Ohio stuns NIU, 26-21, to win the conference title.

Comments: Maybe I’m projecting what my feelings would be if I were a fan of the MAC when I say that Miami beating NIU was the worst moment. Maybe they would say it was a good moment because it showed they had more than one good team. If this is the case, then their worst moments came during the period of time between the conference title game and the bowl wins.

First, Western Michigan (6-6, 5-3 in conference) and Temple (8-4, 5-3 in conference with a win over Connecticut) were the only bowl eligible FBS teams who did not receive a bowl invitation. Then on December 5th, less than 48 hours after his team was upset by Miami in the MAC Championship Game, Jerry Kill took the head coaching job at Minnesota, a team the Huskies beat by 11 points on the road in week 4 of the season. Kill announced he would not coach NIU in their bowl game. On December 12th, the conference’s best coach, Al Golden, left Temple after taking the program from 0-11 to back to back 8+ win seasons in 5 years, to take the head coaching job at Miami. On December 15th, Mike Haywood took the head coaching job at Pittsburgh, announcing that he would not coach his MAC champion RedHawks in their bowl game. Finally, on December 31st, Haywood was arrested for domestic abuse and fired by Pittsburgh the following day.

I assume that the MAC schools and the SBC schools make money from their football programs, but I think it’s ridiculous to have two conferences full of teams who are little more than a minor league system from which bigger programs can pluck coaches. Those schools really ought to be in the FCS. I’m sorry but I seriously doubt that Central Michigan and Troy would dominate Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, and Montana on a yearly basis. I guess the losses in TV money would be really bad for those schools if they weren’t in the FBS, but I don’t think that’s a reason to have a bunch of teams playing on a level where they clearly don’t belong.

Maybe you weren’t expecting much from Ball State this season but I was. They had 19 starters back, including RB Miquale Lewis (remember him from ’08?), and they seemingly had 4 automatic wins with home games against SE Missouri State, Liberty, Eastern Michigan, and Akron. They only went 2-2 in those games. Stan Parish was let go after leading the team to a 6-19 record over two seasons (his record as head coach in the FBS is now 8-89-1) but replacing him with Pete Lembo hasn’t gotten anyone fired up in Muncie. Lembo has never played or coached in any capacity at the FBS level, and his Elon Phoenix never made it past the 1st round of the FCS playoffs. I have a feeling that 12-0 start/#12 ranking in the polls is going to look weirder than Steven Tyler 10 years from now.

Mountain West

Offensive Player of the Year: Andy Dalton-QB-TCU.

Runner Up: Ryan Lindley-QB-San Diego State.

Defensive Player of the Year: Andrew Rich-FS-BYU.

Runner Up: Miles Burris-LB-San Diego State.

Coach of the Year: Brady Hoke-San Diego State.

Runner Up: Gary Patterson-TCU.

Most Surprising Team: San Diego State.

Runner Up: Air Force.

Most Disappointing Team: BYU.

Runner Up: Utah.

Best Moment: January 1st. TCU beats Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl to finish 13-0. Obviously this was a huge win for TCU and the conference. It was huge for the conference, as 3 Mountain West teams have now finished undefeated seasons by beating BCS teams in BCS bowls (Utah twice, TCU once). It was even bigger for TCU, as they had finally won a BCS game and finished an undefeated season, after losing their first game in a BCS bowl the year before.

Worst Moment: November 13th. Utah gets whipped 28-3 by Notre Dame. This sort of result would have been disappointing regardless of the circumstances. What made the result especially upsetting was that Utah had just been destroyed by fellow MWC team TCU the week before for their first loss of the year. Getting crushed by a mediocre ND team for their 2nd loss just a week later took something away from TCU’s win.

Best Game: Week 11: San Diego State @ TCU. Undefeated TCU receives a bigger test than expected against upstart San Diego State, and has to hang on for a 40-35 win.

Comments: I have to think that the real worst moment for the MWC this year was whenever they realized that they were losing all 3 of their football powerhouse schools: Utah (to the Pac-10?); TCU (to the Big East?); and BYU (to Independent status: AKA, a place that quasi-religious schools go when they realize that they can’t cut it with the big boys anymore). Yes, they’re getting Boise State but in a very real sense the Mountain West Conference as we knew it no longer exists. The worst part of it all is that they seemed reasonably close to becoming another BCS conference. They had already won half the battle, as many fans, analysts, and others around the country felt that the Mountain West was no worse than the Big East. And now it’s completely blown up.

Okay, naming Utah as the 2nd most disappointing team may seem uncalled for but it was my only choice. There are only 9 teams in the conference to begin with, and we only expected decent seasons out of 5 of them. Plus, they did lose by 40 to TCU at home, by 25 to ND, and by 23 to Boise State, so they weren’t as competitive against their stronger opponents this season. And their 9-game bowl win streak was snapped.

Pac-10

Offensive Player of the Year: Andrew Luck-QB-Stanford.

Runner Up: LaMichael James-RB-Oregon.

Defensive Player of the Year: Cliff Harris-CB-Oregon.

Runner Up: Mason Foster-LB-Washington.

Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh-Sanford.

Runner Up: Chip Kelly-Oregon.

Most Surprising Team: Stanford.

Runner Up: Oregon.

Most Disappointing Team: Arizona.

Runner Up: California.

Best Moment: January 3rd. Stanford wastes Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. This was obviously a big game for Stanford but it was also big for the conference because it gave them 2 legitimately great teams. Stanford’s easy win over VT certified Stanford as one of the best teams in the country.

Worst Moment: September 17th. Cal allows 52 and loses by 3 TD’s to Nevada. Nevada ended up having a great year, but this was still a bit embarrassing for the conference.

Best Game: Tie.

Week 6: USC @ Stanford. Stanford Indians stun the Trojans for the 3rd time in 4 seasons, winning 37-35 on a last second field goal.

Week 12: Washington @ Cal. Washington goes for the win and gets it, 16-13, to keep their bowl hopes alive and end Cal’s season.

Comments: Obviously, the worst moment of the year for the Pac-10 was the day that the NCAA announced cruel and unusual punishments against the conference’s flagship program, USC. The extent of the damage caused by that ruling will not be known for some years to come. But that was off the field.

Of course, Oregon’s loss in the national title game was also a disappointment, but it wasn’t that big of a deal since they played well and the conference doesn’t have a history of flopping in big games. Stanford’s win also helped take away some of the sting from that loss. Harbaugh’s exit from Stanford certainly hurt, but surely Luck’s surprising decision to stay in school softened that blow.

Some would raise an eyebrow at Stanford and Oregon being the most surprising teams but they were really the only choices. And they make sense. Yes, Stanford had Toby Gerhart last year and won 8 games, but that is light years away from going 12-1 and winning the Orange Bowl. Oregon was ranked high in the preseason polls, but remember most people thought the surprising loss of QB Jeremiah Masoli would have a bigger effect than it did. And no one really knew what to expect from USC, and Oregon would have to play at the Trojans, at Cal, and at Oregon State. Speaking of USC, they would be the hands down most disappointing team if we factored in the sanctions and the overall fall of that program in the last 18 months. But on the field they weren’t much worse than I expected.

SEC

Offensive Player of the Year: Cameron Newton-QB-Auburn.

Runner Up: Randall Cobb-WR-Kentucky.

Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Fairley-DT-Auburn.

Runner Up: Justin Houston-LB-Georgia.

Coach of the Year: Gene Chizik-Auburn.

Runner Up: Dan Mullen-Mississippi State.

Most Surprising Team: Auburn.

Runner Up: Mississippi State.

Most Disappointing Team: Florida.

Runner Up: Georgia.

Best Moment: January 10th. Auburn gets by Oregon in the National Championship Game to finish 14-0 and win the 5th straight BCS title for the SEC. This was really big because other than Auburn it was a bit of a down year for the conference. In a year when powerhouses Florida and Alabama were both down, the streak of national titles was extended.

Worst Moment: September 4th. Mississippi gives up 49 points and loses at home to FCS Jacksonville State in double overtime. This really was a horrific and embarrassing loss. If an SEC team had ever lost to an FCS or Division I-AA team before, I can’t remember it.

Best Game: Week 13: Auburn @ Alabama. Auburn comes back from a 24-point deficit to shock their arch rivals and keep the dream season alive with a 28-27 win.

Comments: Without question, the worst moment of the year was really the long, long moment that began with the breaking of the story concerning Cameron Newton’s father and Mississippi State. Although Newton ended up remaining eligible (somehow) and the Tigers eventually won it all, this was still a major ordeal for the conference. Following years of relatively few NCAA issues, while many other programs around the country ran afoul of the rules, the SEC found itself in the worst kind of trouble: a player reportedly sold to the highest bidder.

It’s one thing for a player to take money from an agent or even for a program to be caught assisting one of its players while he was still a member of the team. It’s way, way worse to be accused of paying a player to come to your school. And this wasn’t just one SEC team. 3 different SEC schools were involved in the scandal, including a team that had won two of the past 4 national championships (Florida) and the only team that still had a chance to win the title this season (Auburn). It was not a good scene. It also came on the heels of infractions at Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia. All and all, the SEC gave detractors plenty of material to work with in the years to come.

Randall Cobb’s selection at the runner up for Off POY may seem a bit random but it’s justifiable. He’s a great player on a middling team. He’s the most versatile player in the conference and one of the most valuable. This season he had 84 catches for 1017 yards and 7 TD’s; ran 55 times for 424 yards (7.71 average) and 5 TD; completed 5 of 10 passes for 3 TD and no picks; scored a pair of 2-point conversions; had a PR TD; and finished 4th in the SEC in yards from scrimmage and 1st in all-purpose yards.

Sun Belt

Offensive Player of the Year: Jerrel Jernigan-WR-Troy.

Runner Up: Lance Dunbar-RB-North Texas.

Defensive Player of the Year: Jonathan Massaquoi-DE-Troy.

Runner Up: Jamari Lattimore-DE-Middle Tennessee State.

Coach of the Year: Mario Cristobal-Florida International.

Runner Up: Rick Stockstill-Middle Tennessee State.

Most Surprising Team: Louisiana-Monroe.

Runner Up: Florida International.

Most Disappointing Team: Middle Tennessee State.

Runner Up: North Texas.

Best Moment: December 26th. FIU bests Toledo in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. Any time an SBC team wins a bowl game it’s a fairly big deal. But this was extra special because it was Florida International, a team which has only had a football program for 9 years. This was their first ever bowl game, and for a matchup of a MAC team and an SBC team, it was pretty damn entertaining.

Worst Moment: September 18th. North Texas gets shutout 24-0 by Army. It’s hard to imagine now, but in the first few years of the Sun Belt Conference’s time in the FBS, North Texas was its best team. In fact, the Mean Green won the conference championship and the automatic bowl bid in the SBC’s first four years as a major football conference (2001-2004). Since the end of that run, North Texas has never won more than 3 games in a season. They were supposed to be back this year but it didn’t happen. NT’s hopes took a hit when they lost by a point to Rice at home in week 2. But reality was truly forced home the next week when they were blanked by Army, 24-0. Army turned out to be better than they have been in many years. Still, this was a major setback for North Texas, who ended up going 3-9 for their 6th consecutive season with 3 wins or less.

Best Game: Week 14: Middle Tennessee State @ Florida International. The Blue Raiders upset conference champion FIU, 28-27, in season finale to get bowl eligible.

Comments: The SBC had a bad moment before the year. The suspension of Dwight Dasher was a blow to Middle Tennessee State and the conference, as it derailed the season of the best team and the conference’s best player. This helps explain why I have MTS as my most disappointing team in the conference and also have Rick Stockstill as my runner up for COY. The Blue Raiders were expected to match last year’s 10-win campaign, but Dasher missed the first 4 games and never found himself. He was basically horrible all season. This was a lot for Stockstill to deal with. Despite the disappointment, he was able to rally his man to a 6-6 regular season and a bowl game.

WAC

Offensive Player of the Year: Kellen Moore-QB-Boise State.

Runner Up: Colin Kaepernick-QB-Nevada.

Defensive Player of the Year: Aaron Brown-LB-Hawaii.

Runner Up: Aaron Lavarias-DE-Idaho.

Coach of the Year: Chris Ault-Nevada.

Runner Up: Chris Petersen-Boise State.

Most Surprising Team: Hawaii.

Runner Up: Nevada.

Most Disappointing Team: Fresno State.

Runner Up: Louisiana Tech.

Best Moment: September 6th. Boise State gets a dramatic victory over Virginia Tech on opening night. This was big because there was so much hype for this matchup and Boise State came into it with so much momentum. It was a bit of an all or nothing game for the Broncos right off the bat. If they lost, their chances of breaking into the national championship game as a BCS buster would be out the window. If they won, it was not at all a stretch to say that they should go undefeated without that much trouble.

Worst Moment: Tie.

December 18th. Fresno State gets worked by NIU in the Humanitarian Bowl. This was just a bit embarrassing. You never want to get blown out by a MAC team, even one who had been as good as NIU during the regular season. Fresno State’s only losses in the conference had been to co-champions Hawaii, Boise State, and Nevada. They had beaten Cincinnati and Illinois. To be fair, they were 1.5 point underdogs, but it’s hard to explain how they got outgained by almost 150 yards, got more than doubled up in 1st downs, and lost 40-17 to the runner up from the MAC.

December 24th. Hawaii gets rocked by Tulsa in the Hawaii Bowl on their home field. Talk about embarrassing. Remember, Hawaii is playing on their home field, with their very energetic home crowd in attendance. Tulsa was 9-3, but Hawaii was 10-3 and favored by 10 points. Tulsa jumped out to a 24-7 lead, but Hawaii pulled within 6 points of the lead twice in the 2nd half, and it really didn’t turn into a rout until Tulsa closed the game on a 28-7 run. It was still fairly ugly throughout, as Hawaii threw 5 picks and turned it over 7 times, and by the time it was over they had lost it 62-35.

Best Game: Week 13: Boise State @ Nevada. Boise State’s hopes of crashing the national championship game come to a stunning end on a cold night in Reno, as the Wolf Pack come back to trip the Broncos in OT, 34-31, in perhaps the best game of the season.

Comments: I thought about calling Brotzman’s choke the conference’s worst moment. In many ways it was. Boise State’s attempt to crash the BCS title game was really the only reason for anyone to pay attention to the WAC. And Brotzman’s miss not only ended the dreams of a national title, it knocked the Broncos out of a BCS game altogether, meaning a dramatic loss in revenue for the school and the conference. Really, the only way you could see it as not a total negative would be if Nevada is able to maintain their current level and become a consistent force based on the exposure they got from this game. That doesn’t seem too likely. However, Boise State is leaving the WAC, so maybe it will eventually work out for the best for the conference, as Nevada will be the most legit program remaining.

National Awards

The Brent Musburger Most Outstanding Football Player Award

Winner: Cameron Newton-QB-Auburn.

Runner Up: Andrew Luck-QB-Stanford.

Third Place: Justin Blackmon-WR-Oklahoma State.

Fourth Place: Nick Fairley-DT-Auburn.

Fifth Place: LaMichael James-RB-Oregon.

Sixth Place: Kellen Moore-QB-Boise State.

Seventh Place: Colin Kaepernick-QB-Nevada.

Eighth Place: Denard Robinson-QB-Michigan.

Ninth Place: Andy Dalton-QB-TCU.

Tenth Place: Darron Thomas-QB-Oregon.

Eleventh Place: Landry Jones-QB-Oklahoma.

Twelfth Place: Brandon Weeden-QB-Oklahoma State.

Comments: I was not as happy with my Musburger award ranking this year as I was last year. The reason is the obvious lack of variety. Last year I had 5 QB, 4 RB, a WR, a DT, and a CB in my top 12. This year I have 9 QB, 1 DT, 1 WR, and 1 RB. But the reason I have so many QB’s this year is that there just weren’t that many stellar seasons turned in by RB’s and WR’s. At least the 3 non-QB’s in my top 12 were all in the top 5. And it’s hard to argue with Newton and Luck as the top 2.

The Christian Okoye Offensive Player of the Year Award

Winner: Justin Blackmon-WR-Oklahoma State.

Runner Up: LaMichael James-RB-Oregon.

The Doug Atkins Defensive Player of the Year Award

Winner: Nick Fairley-DT-Auburn.

Runner Up: Da’Quan Bowers-DE-Clemson.

The Tom Flores Coach of the Year Award

Winner: Jim Harbaugh-Stanford.

Runner Up: Gene Chizik-Auburn.

The Herschel Walker Freshman Player of the Year Award

Winner: Aaron Murray-QB-Georgia.

Runner Up: Ronnie Hillman-RB-San Diego State.

The Bernie Kosar Quarterback of the Year Award

Winner: Andrew Luck-Stanford.

Runner Up: Kellen Moore-Boise State.

The Bo Jackson Running Back of the Year Award

Winner: LaMichael James-Oregon.

Runner Up: DeMarco Murray-Oklahoma.

The Sterling Sharpe Wide Receiver of the Year Award

Winner: Justin Blackmon-Oklahoma State.

Runner Up: Ryan Broyles-Oklahoma.

The Brent Jones Tight End of the Year Award

Winner: Michael Egnew-Missouri.

Runner Up: DJ Williams-Arkansas.

The Jerome Brown Defensive Lineman of the Year Award

Winner: Nick Fairley-DT-Auburn.

Runner Up: Da’Quan Bowers-DE-Clemson.

The Darryl Talley Linebacker of the Year Award

Winner: Justin Houston-Georgia.

Runner Up: Von Miller-Texas A&M.

The Scott Case Defensive Back of the Year Award

Winner: Cliff Harris-CB-Oregon.

Runner Up: Ahmad Black-SS-Florida.

The Mike Cofer Place Kicker of the Year Award

Winner: Alex Henry-Nebraska.

Runner Up: Blair Walsh-Georgia.

The Sean Landeta Punter of the Year Award

Winner: Quinn Sharp-Oklahoma State.

Runner Up: Drew Butler-Georgia.

Most Surprising Team: Oklahoma State.

Runner Up: Stanford.

Most Disappointing Team: Texas.

Runner Up: Florida.

Best Game of the Year: Tie.

Week 13: Auburn @ Alabama.

Week 13: Boise State @ Nevada.

These were easily the two best games of the year, and it’s near impossible to rank one over the other.

Best Regular Season Inter-confernce Game: Week 1: Boise State vs. Virginia Tech. The magnitude of this contest has been explained several times already in this post.

Runner Up: Week 3: Notre Dame @ Michigan State. This has always been an interesting rivalry, and this year’s version was a great one, as the teams traded blows for 4 quarters and went to overtime tied at 28-28. But this game separates itself from many other great games because of the call by Mike Dantonio on 4th and 14 from the 29 with his team down 3 in the first overtime session. The Spartans lined up as if to try a 46-yard FG to tie it, but instead they ran a fake. The play clock ran all the way down to zero, but no delay of game penalty was called. Punter Aaron Bates was the holder, and he got the snap and stood up and waited for Charlie Gantt to come open from the right end position. The ND player who was supposed to be covering Gantt was taken out by the guy who was supposed to catch the ball on the play. That worked out perfectly for the Spartans, as Gantt was wide open and he made the catch and went untouched for a 29-yard game winning touchdown.

Best Bowl Game: BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. Auburn. As everyone knows by now, you’re just not going to get a well played game in the BCS NC because there’s simply too much time off between the final week of the regular season and the final bowl game. But at least this was one was competitive and compelling and it went down to the final play of the game.

Runner Up: Sugar Bowl: Ohio State vs. Arkansas. As an SEC fan, I hated this game, but it was pretty damn entertaining. Ohio State owned the 1st half but in the end Arkansas should have come out on top. They just choked.

Worst Bowl Game: Champs Sports Bowl: West Virginia vs. NC State. Trash. A boring matchup of middling teams, including one (West Virginia) that basically went at about 60% to 70% at their most energetic moments in this game. It looked like the Mountaineers were playing the last preseason game before an NFL season.

Runner Up: BBVA Compass Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky. More trash. Two boring, middling teams, including one (Kentucky) that was without their QB after he got arrested during the time off between the final regular season game and this very late bowl game. And this game was never competitive.

Comments: I picked Luck and Moore for the QB award based on their skills as passing QB’s. I mentioned how Off POY awards are often used to recognize skill position players rather than QB’s, and Justin Blackmon needed to win that award. The guy had an amazing season. Lest you think I’m favoring my Bulldogs with my selection of Aaron Murray as freshman of the year, note that he threw for 3049 yards, completed 61.1% of his passes, posted a 24-8 TD-INT ratio, ran for 4 scores, and ranked 14th in the country in QB rating playing against SEC defenses.

2010 All-Horse Collar Team

First Team

Offense

QB: Cameron Newton-Auburn

RB: LaMichael James-Oregon

RB: DeMarco Murray-Oklahoma

RB: Kendall Hunter-Oklahoma State

WR: Justin Blackmon-Oklahoma State

WR: Ryan Broyles-Oklahoma

TE: Michael Egnew-Missouri

OL: Stanford

PK: Blair Walsh-Georgia

KR: Eric Page-Toledo

Defense

DE: Da’Quan Bowers-Clemson

DE: Ryan Kerrigan-Purdue

DT: Nick Fairley-Auburn

DT: Sam Acho-Texas

LB: Justin Houston-Georgia

LB: Von Miller-Texas A&M

LB: Luke Kuechly-Boston College

CB: Cliff Harris-Oregon

CB: Jayron Hosley-Virginia Tech

SS: Ahmad Black-Florida

FS: Robert Lester-Alabama

P: Drew Butler-Georgia

PR: Cliff Harris-Oregon

2nd Team

Offense

QB: Andrew Luck-Stanford

RB: Mikel Leshoure-Illinois

RB: Mark Ingram-Alabama

WR: AJ Green-Georgia

WR: Alshon Jeffery-South Carolina

WR: Titus Young-Boise State

TE: DJ Williams-Arkansas

OL: Oklahoma State

PK: Alex Henery-Nebraska

KR: Nick Williams-Connecticut

Defense

DE: Bruce Miller-Central Florida

DE: Brandon Jenkins-Florida State

DT: JJ Watt-Wisconsin

DT: Jared Crick-Nebraska

LB: Nate Irving-NC State

LB: Victor Aiyewa-Washington

LB: Danny Trevathan-Kentucky

CB: Greg Reid-Florida State

CB: David Garrett-Kansas State

SS: Mana Silva-Hawaii

FS: Andrew Rich-BYU

P: Quinn Sharp-Oklahoma State

PR: Patrick Peterson-LSU

Comments: Recall that my All-Horse Collar teams lean more towards who I think the best player is than the other awards. This helps explain why Butler and Walsh are 1st team special teamers, and Ingram, Green, and Reid make the 2nd team despite not having the best statistical seasons. The awards ended up being a bit redundant this year because there were so many less great options to choose from. For the offensive lines I look at pass protection, rushing game, success on 3rd and 4th down, red zone success, and offensive penalties. It’s pretty unscientific. I do find it interesting that Stanford has been my 1st team offensive line each of the last two years.

20 Memorable Moments (in no particular order)

1. Boise State tops Virginia Tech.

2. Virginia Tech falls to James Madison.

3. Mississippi loses to Jacksonville State.

4. Texas goes down to UCLA.

5. Arkansas chokes vs. Bama.

6. Auburn comeback vs. Bama.

7. National Championship Game.

8. No whistle play late in the NCG.

9. Brotzman and the Broncos go down in Reno.

10. Miles eats grass and leads LSU over Bama.

11. Nebraska vs. Washington x 2.

12. Tennessee’s celebration halted x 2.

13. The year of the service academies.

14. Arizona loses to ASU on extra points.

15. Oklahoma State's "team INT" in the Bedlam game.

16. Arkansas chokes vs. Ohio State.

17. Big Ten goes big zero (for five) on the 1st.

18. Michigan State fake punt for the win vs. the Irish.

19. Miami of Ohio’s pass through the gauntlet against NIU.

20. ECU’s Hail Mary winner in the opener.


20 Worst Moments (in no particular order)

1. USC put in solitary/possessions confiscated/family deported.

2. UNC’s season in limbo.

3. AJ Green’s jersey.

4. Ohio State tattoos.

5. TCU left out in the cold again.

6. Notre Dame filming travesty.

7. Rutgers tragedy.

8. Salute penalty ruins Cuse vs. KSU.

9. Newton and son.

10. Urban Meyer channeling his inner Brett Favre.

11. The mess that is the Iowa program.

12. BYU gets help in the replay booth.

13. Temple doesn’t get the invite.

14. Conference realignment nonsense.

15. Coaches slithering and stabbing.

16. Rich Rod cries and sings “You lift me up!”

17. Ron Franklin fired for being a dick.

18. Gene Chizik claim’s god on Auburn’s side.

19. The media’s Boise State agenda.

20. Football at Wrigley Field.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

The NFL Blog: 2010 Super Bowl Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (2-0); Straight Up: (2-0)

Season: Vs. Spread (131-129-6); Straight Up: (164-102)

Championship Round Review: Well, I guess it was a good week for me picking games. But it was my least favorite Championship Sunday ever.

Super Bowl Preview: This is a free one for me, as I’ve already clinched an above .500 record. It’s an interesting matchup with two great teams, histories, and fan bases. It should be a great game as well. But for the first time in many years I have to admit that I don’t care at all which team wins.

As you know if you've reading my blog over the last month, my betting line entries have been a bit different in the postseason. Since the conference championship games are obviously special games, the summaries of last Sunday's games are fairly extensive. For those of you who aren't looking for an in depth, play-by-play account of what happened, you may want to skip ahead to the next section.

Super Bowl XLV

Pittsburgh (+2.5) vs. Green Bay

Pick: Packers win but Steelers beat the spread.

Comment: I think it’s fairly safe to expect a tight, entertaining game. It’s been a while since we’ve had a total blowout in the Super Bowl, and many of the Super Bowls in the last 15 years or so have gone down to the wire. And these teams would appear to be evenly matched. It will be interesting to see how the relatively inexperienced Packers handle the bright lights of the Super Bowl.

Records and Trends

Pittsburgh: The Steelers are now 14-4 overall and 12-6 ATS. They have a +8.6 average scoring differential. Pittsburgh has won 4 straight and 4 straight ATS.

Green Bay: The Packers are now 13-6 overall and 12-7 ATS. They have a super +9.9 average scoring differential. Green Bay has won 5 in a row and 3 straight ATS.

Pittsburgh’s Championship Round Game

The Steelers were 4 point favorites at home last Sunday, hosting the Jets, who had already won on the road against Peyton Manning and the Colts and Tom Brady and the Patriots. In addition, the Jets had just won at Pittsburgh in week 15. The game started with the Jets looking shell shocked and the Steelers making it look surprisingly easy. By the time it was all over things had tightened up and become something close to the battle we expected.

The Steelers outscored the Jets 7-0 in the 1st quarter and 17-3 in the 2nd, but the Jets outscored Pittsburgh 7-0 in the 3rd and 9-0 in the 4th. The Steelers scored the first 24 points in the game, shutting out the Jets until New York got on the board with 9 seconds to play in the 1st half. The Jets would outscore Pittsburgh 19-0 the rest of the way. In fact, the Jets ended up outgaining the Steelers in total yards, 289-287, although Pittsburgh had a 23-17 edge in 1st downs. The Steelers dominated the matchup on the ground, out-rushing New York 166-70. The Jets ended up holding a 219-121 edge in passing yards. Pittsburgh was 6 for 11 on 3rd downs (0 for 1 on 4th), while the Jets went 5 for 14 on 3rd down (2 for 3 on 4th down). Both teams had a pair of sacks and the Jets won the turnover battle 2-1. Penalties would play a big role in this contest. Pittsburgh committed 4 penalties for 25 yards, while the Jets were called for 6 penalties for 50 yards. The Steelers went 2 for 3 scoring TD’s in the red zone; the Jets were 1 for 2. Pittsburgh had almost a 9 and a half minute edge in time of possession (34:41-25:19).

The Steelers got the ball first, and right away it looked like the Jets defense had forced a 3-and-out, as Ben Roethlisberger fired incomplete on 3rd and 7 from the Pittsburgh 37. However, Antonio Cromartie was called for illegal hands to the face and the Steelers got a 1st down at the 42. That turned out to be huge. On 3rd and 5 from the 47, Big Ben hit Mike Wallace for 6 yards and 1st down in Jets territory. On 1st down from the 23, Big Ben hit Heath Miller with a completion that gave the Steelers a 1st and goal at the 2, but the Jets challenged and the play was overturned. On 3rd and 12 from the 25, Roethlisberger scrambled and got just enough for a 1st down at the 13, picking up 12 yards. On 2nd down and 5 from the 8, Hines Ward caught a pass for 7 yards to give Pittsburgh a 1st and goal from the 1. However, Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey was hurt on the play and would not return. This would have a noticeable effect on things later in the game. Rashard Mendenhall scored on the next play to make it 7-0, capping off a 66 yard drive, during which the Steelers had run 15 plays and taken 9:06 off the clock. It was just about the worst start possible for New York.

When the Jets finally got the ball they got faced a huge 3rd down right away. On 3rd and 10 from the 27, Mark Sanchez found Jerricho Cotchery for 14 yards and a 1st down at the 41. An illegal contact penalty moved the ball to the 46. On 2nd and 9 from the 47, Sanchez threw incomplete, but Ike Taylor was hit for pass interference, giving the Jets another 1st down at the Pittsburgh 43. On 3rd and 14 from the 47, Sanchez threw short to Cotchery but he only got 3 yards to the 44 and the Jets had to punt. Steve Weatherford was able to pin the Steelers at the 13 but now the new defense was back on the field.

On the first play of Pittsburgh’s 2nd possession, Mendenhall gained 11 yards for a big 1st down at the 24. Then on 2nd and 8 from the 26, Mendenhall ran for 18 more and a 1st down at the 44 on the final play of the 1st quarter. Early in the 2nd quarter the Jets were hit with another big penalty. On 2nd and 10 from the 44 Big Ben threw over the middle for Emmanuel Sanders. This was not a good decision, as David Harris was back in coverage and had the ball bounce off his hands in front of his face. It got worse for the Jets. Not only had Harris dropped a pick, but safety Eric Smith was flagged for an “unnecessary” hit on Sanders at the end of the play.

Smith and Sanders had been heading straight for a big collision, but when Harris broke up the pass, Smith pulled up, and simply stood his ground, turning his shoulder into Sanders as the receiver reached him. What Smith did was exactly what officials are taught to do if they find themselves in that situation, unable to avoid a collision. For the safety of the official, they are taught to stand their ground and lean into the hit (this was the reason for the apparent forearm shiver delivered to a South Carolina player a few years back in a clip that became a YouTube hit). The official saw the collision, saw Sanders on the ground writhing, and saw Smith standing. He threw the flag based on this, assuming that Smith had chosen to make the collision happen, when in fact, he had pulled up and tried to avoid a collision.

The penalty gave the Steelers a 1st down at the Jets 41. New York was in jeopardy of falling into a big hole, but the defense stepped up at this point. On 3rd and 1 from the 32, Mendenhall was stopped for no gain. The Steelers lined up to go for it on 4th and 1 and Big Ben tried to drop a short pass off into traffic to Mendenhall and Bryan Thomas intercepted at the 34. The Jets took over at their own 35, still down just 7-0.

The Jets needed to keep the ball away from Pittsburgh for a while, just to give their own defense a rest. Unfortunately for them, they weren’t able to do it. They ran Cotchery around the left on the first play after the change of possession and Taylor and James Harrison threw him for a loss of 4 yards. A false start penalty backed the Jets up another 5 yards. On 3rd and 12 from the 33 Sanchez threw incomplete and the Jets had to punt after a 3-and-out. Weatherford’s kick went out of bounds at the Pittsburgh 38.

On 2nd and 10 following the punt, Big Ben threw to Mendenhall and he took it all the way down to the Jets 27 for a 35 yard pickup. Then Ike Redman got a couple of carries and picked up 8 yards and then 13 yards on back to back plays. That gave Pittsburgh a 1st and goal at the 6. Here, the Jets defense again kept the team in the game. On 3rd and goal from the 2, Big Ben’s pass was batted down by Smith, and on 4th and goal from the 2 the Steelers sent out Shaun Suisham for a 20 yard FG to make it 10-0.

After hitting the chip shot field goal, Suisham committed an error, kicking the ball out of bounds on the ensuing kickoff. The Jets now took over at their own 40 with 6:51 to go in the half. It felt like a huge possession for New York. However, the Steelers again forced a 3-and-out, as Sanchez threw incomplete on 3rd and 7 from the 43, and the Jets had to punt again. Antwaan Randle-El returned the punt 10 yards to give Pittsburgh decent field position at their 34. Pittsburgh threatened again right away. On 2nd down from the 34, Big Ben hit Miller for 24 yards and a 1st down at the Jets 42. On 2nd and 7 from the 39, Roethlisberger got it to Emmanuel Sanders for a gain of 20 and a 1st down at the 19. Then on 2nd and 7, Mendenhall caught a short pass and ran to the 2 for a pickup of 14 and a 1st and goal. On the next play, Big Ben ran into the end zone for a touchdown to make it 17-0 with exactly 2 minutes to go in the half.

The Jets got the ball back at their own 33 with 1:53 left in the half. The Steelers had every ounce of momentum. It only got worse, as Sanchez was sacked by LaMarr Woodley on the very first play of the drive, dropping him back at the 26 for a loss of 7. The Jets were going nowhere fast but they couldn’t afford to be conservative. On 3rd and 17 from the 26, Sanchez snapped the ball with 1:23 left in the half and dropped back to throw. Rather than playing safe, the Steelers came with a huge and exotic blitz. Taylor got through and hit Sanchez from behind as he was trying to throw at the 20. Taylor’s hit on Sanchez jarred the ball loose but Sanchez’s fingers were still on the ball and the motion of his arm sent the ball sailing way over towards the sideline. Then William Gay made the sort of play that separates the pro game from all other levels of tackle football. Gay had also been coming on the blitz from Sanchez’s blindside, and LaDainian Tomlinson had picked him up and blocked him behind the QB. But when the ball was knocked away, Gay sprinted to it, picked it up at the 19, waited for some of his mates to pass him to his right, and then brought it back, cutting up and to his right into the end zone for a touchdown. Heinz Field was in a frenzy again. The play went to review, and it was close, but the “empty hand” rule meant that it was upheld, and the Steelers had a 24-0 lead with just 1:13 remaining in the half. The game appeared to be over.

Facing a seemingly insurmountable deficit, the Jets got the ball back at their own 31 with 1:08 on the clock. The Jets were getting throttled and Sanchez had been shaken up on the fumble. But to New York’s credit, they did not merely tuck it in and try and get things turned around at halftime. They had 3 timeouts. Sanchez completed a pass to Dustin Keller for 5 yards on the first play of the drive, and then went to Brad Smith on the next play for a gain of 16 and a 1st down in Pittsburgh territory at the 48. Smith was able to get out of bounds with 39 ticks left. On the next play, Sanchez hit Smith for 9 yards and the Jets called a timeout with 33 seconds on the clock.

Sanchez fired incomplete on the next play but Bryan McFadden was called for illegal contact, giving the Jets a 1st down at the 34 with 28 seconds left. Then Sanchez and Keller hooked up again for a gain of 9 and the Jets burned their 2nd timeout with 23 seconds to go. With only 1 timeout left, Sanchez threw incomplete on the next 2 plays, leaving 4th and 1 from the 25 with just 14 seconds to go in the half. The Jets decided to settle for a 42 yard field goal try. Nick Folk hit it to get New York on the board with 9 seconds to play in the 2nd quarter. Following the kickoff the Steelers took a knee and headed to the locker room up 24-3. It had been a surprisingly one-sided half.

The field goal just before halftime may have seemed like an insignificant gesture for pride at the time, but it did change the lead from a 4 score deficit (barring 3 touchdowns and 2-point conversions) to a 3 score deficit. This was particularly important because the Jets would get the ball first in the 2nd half. They would be facing essentially a must-score possession, and another field goal wouldn’t really do them any good. They needed a touchdown. With this in mind, things couldn’t have gone much worse on the kickoff, as Smith ended up with a net return of -1, forcing the Jets to start at their own 10. They would have to go 90 yards.

Things got much brighter right off the bat, as they finally got something on the ground. On the first play of the 2nd half, Shaunn Greene ran for 23 yards, moving the ball out to the 33. Then on 3rd and 4 from the 39, the Jets got a conversion they had to have, as Sanchez hit Santonio Holmes for a pickup of 16 and a 1st down at the Pittsburgh 45. On the next play, Sanchez rolled out and Holmes got behind the Pittsburgh secondary. Sanchez got it to him for a 45 yard TD bomb to make it 24-10. Suddenly, the Jets had life. They had gone 90 yards in 5 plays over just 2:47.

The Jets continued to gain momentum on Pittsburgh’s first possession of the 2nd half, although they missed another chance for a pick. On 3rd and 2 from the 36, Roethlisberger threw a slant to his right and Darelle Revis stepped up directly in the path of the ball, but it hit him in the face mask and fell incomplete. Still, the Jets defense had forced a 3-and-out. Jeremy Kapinos came on to punt and booted it to the 24. However, Jamaal Westerman was hit with a devastating roughing the kicker penalty, giving the Steelers a 1st down at the Jets 49.

Like the first Pittsburgh possession of the game, the first of the 2nd half had ended in an apparent 3-and-out, only to have a penalty extend the drive. Then on 3rd and 6 from the 45, Big Ben dropped a pass off to Mewelde Moore for 9 yards and another 1st down at the 36. But then the injury to Pouncey came into play. Roethlisberger fumbled the snap from Doug Legursky and fell on it at the 37. On the next play, Big Ben went deep and Brodney Poole intercepted at the 5. Poole returned it to the 14. In the end, the Jets lost 10 yards of field position due to the penalty for roughing the kicker, but more importantly, they lost about 2 and a half minutes of time.

The Steelers needed to do something to get momentum back in their favor and the defense came through. On 3rd and 7 from the 17, Sanchez threw incomplete for a 3-and-out. The Jets had to punt it right back to Pittsburgh. Randle-El muffed the punt but it went out of bounds to give the Steelers the ball at their own 30.

Pittsburgh’s offense was not able to do much in the 2nd half, in part because they backed off a bit in an attempt to protect the big lead and not make mistakes. But the Jets also played much better defensively and the Steelers weren’t as good offensively. However, on this possession, when a score would have put the Jets away for good, the Steelers were at least able to hold the ball for a while and eat up another big chunk of time. On 3rd and 4 from the 36, Big Ben scrambled for 5 to pick up the 1st down. Then on 3rd and 3 from the 48, Big Ben scrambled and picked up 5 again, and defensive holding on Cromartie moved the ball to the New York 42.

At this point the Jets defense turned things around. On the next play, Calvin Pace finally got to Big Ben for a loss of 7. Then Moore was cut down by David Harris for a loss of 3. With the ball now back in Pittsburgh territory, Big Ben dropped back on 3rd and 20 and got sacked by Trevor Pryce for a loss of 5. Kapinos punted, forcing a fair catch at the 19. There was just 50 seconds left in the 3rd quarter.

Time was running out but the Jets were still only down 2 scores. On the first play of their next possession, Sanchez hit Braylon Edwards over the middle for 18 yards and a 1st down at the 37. LT ran for 5 yards on the final play of the 3rd quarter. On the first play of the 4th quarter, Sanchez went to Keller for 19 yards and a 1st down at the Pittsburgh 39. On 3rd and 4 from the 33 Sanchez found Keller again for 6 yards and a huge 1st down at the 27.

The Jets faced a 3rd and 3 from the 20, and this time they ran for it, with Greene gaining 2 yards to the 18. On 4th and 1, Greene carried again and again gained 2 yards for a 1st down at the 16. But on the next play, Sanchez fumbled the shotgun snap and it ended up as a loss of 8, all the way back to the 24. However, the Jets crossed the defense up on the next play, with Greene carrying for 16 yards, running over 2 Steelers along the way, setting up 3rd and 2 from the 8. Sanchez went to the old reliable Cotchery with a horizontal pass to the right on 3rd down and the play was good for 6 yards and a 1st and goal at the 2.

Greene got the carry on 1st and goal and moved the ball to the 1. On 2nd and goal from the 1, Sanchez threw incomplete. This was the play that got the Jets into trouble. Had they ran Greene up the middle or even ran Sanchez on a sneak on 2nd down from the 1, they may well have scored, and if not they might have at least moved it to about a half of a yard out. That would have left them 2 plays to either sneak it or give it to a running back and have him try and jump and stretch it over the goal line. But now they were still a full yard away and it was 3rd down. So the Jets tried another pass, this time a quick inside slant to the right, but Woodley read the play perfectly and jumped up and batted it down at the line. Two pass plays hadn’t worked, so on 4th and goal from the 1, the Jets ran Tomlinson up the middle. Pittsburgh sold out completely against the run and when Tomlinson hit the line he was forced up. There was no chance to jump or try and reach the ball over the line. The Steelers took over just outside of their end zone with 7:44 remaining. Almost half of the quarter had melted away and the Jets were no closer.

On the first play following the goal line stand the injury to Pouncey factored into things again, as the Steelers fumbled another snap. Big Ben fell on it in the end zone to avoid disaster but it was a safety. The score was now 24-12 with 7:38 remaining and the Jets were going to get it back.

While the play obviously had to pick up the spirits of both the Jets and their fans across the country, in reality, it didn’t come anywhere close to making up for the failure to score after a 1st and goal from the 2. To begin with, the 2-points really didn’t help the Jets at all. Going from being down 14 to being down 12 didn’t change the fact that they would need 2 touchdowns in the final 7 and a half minutes to catch Pittsburgh. Obviously, if they were able to do it they would now be ahead of the Steelers instead of just tying them. But that didn’t really improve their chances of not losing. The Jets chances of completing the comeback had dropped dramatically from the moment that they had 1st and goal at the 2 to the moment they turned it over on downs, and the safety didn’t raise their chances very much. A TD would have made it a 1 score game with still almost 8 minutes to go. It was now still a 2 score game with almost 8 minutes to go.

If given the choice when the Jets took over at their 19 late in the 3rd, the Steelers would gladly have traded 2 points in exchange for 8 minutes of clock being eaten away. Furthermore, the safety meant that the Steelers would get a free kick from the 20. Had they simply gone 3-and-out they would have been punting from the back of their own end zone, meaning there would be a possibility of the Jets blocking the punt for a touchdown or returning the punt for a touchdown or even just getting super field position. Looking at it now, if the Steelers couldn’t get a 1st down, a safety was probably the next best option.

Following the free kick, the Jets took over with good field position at their own 42 with 7:36 remaining. On the 1st play of the possession, Sanchez hit Edwards for 22 yards. Just like that the Jets were at the Pittsburgh 36. The Steelers defense stiffened, but on 4th and 1 from the 27, Sanchez hit Edwards again for 10 yards and a 1st down at the 17. On 3rd and 4 from the 11, Sanchez found Keller for 5 yards, setting up 1st and goal from the 6. This time the Jets got it in the end zone. On 2nd and goal from the 4, Sanchez hit Cotchery for a TD to make it 24-19 with 3:06 to play.

The Jets had gone 58 yards in 10 plays but the drive had taken 4:32. From the moment they were stopped on 4th and goal from the 1 to the moment they scored the TD, the time remaining had gone from 7:44 to 3:06. They still had enough time to avoid the onside kick but obviously now they had very little room for error. The first mistake came on the kickoff. Aaron Brown fielded New York’s kickoff at the 14 and returned it 27 yards to give the Steelers good field position at the 41 with 2:56 to play. It actually would have been better for Folk to kick the ball out of bounds, as that would have put the ball at the 40 without 10 seconds running off the clock.

The Steelers gave the ball to Mendenhall on the first play as expected and the Jets stopped him for a gain of 1. They called their first timeout with 2:50 remaining. Field position came into play here, as the Steelers were able to be more aggressive on 2nd and 9 from the 42 than they likely would have been on 2nd and 9 from the 21. Big Ben took the snap and dropped back to throw. He hit Miller for a gain of 14 yards and a huge 1st down at the New York 44. The Jets had to burn their 2nd timeout with 2:43 to play.

Again, field position was huge here. The Steelers were now in a position to force the Jets to use their last timeout and the 2-minute warning, and even if the Jets held them on 3rd down, the Steelers could punt and at worst force the Jets to go 80 yards with no timeouts in a minute and change. As expected, Mendenhall got the ball on the next play, and the Jets stopped him after a gain of 2 and called their last timeout with 2:38 left. Mendenhall carried again on the next play and again picked up 2 yards. The clock ran down to the 2-minute warning, with the Steelers facing 3rd and 6 from the New York 40.

Not to be repetitive, but field position was again key here. A first down would end the game and the Steelers had the option of going for it, with the only risk being the Jets having 1:50 or so to drive the length of the field instead of 1:20 or so. They went for the win and Big Ben hit Brown for 14 yards and a 1st down at the 26. It was over and Rex Ryan knew it. Roethlisberger kneeled it 3 times to finish off the 24-19 victory.

Big Ben once again made enough plays to get the job done, but it would be tough to say that he had a good game. He ended up completing 10 of 19 passes for 133 yards, no TD’s, and 2 picks for a 35.5 passer rating. He did run 11 times for 21 yards and a TD. Mendenhall rushed 27 times for 127 yards and a score, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He also caught 2 passes for 32 yards. Miller caught 2 passes for 38 yards. Suisham was 1 for 1 on FG tries and Kapinos put his only punt inside the 20. Taylor had 3 tackles and a huge sack/forced fumble. Woodley had 3 tackles and a sack. And Gay made 2 tackles and returned a fumble 19 yards for a TD.

Sanchez was actually pretty impressive in this game. He completed 20 of 33 passes for 233 yards and 2 TD’s with no picks for a 102.2 rating. He did lose a fumble. Greene ran 9 times for 52 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. On the other hand, Tomlinson was a total non-factor. He ran 9 times for just 16 yards and did not catch a pass. Keller caught 8 passes for 64 yards; Holmes caught 2 passes for 61 yards and a TD; Edwards made 3 catches for 50 yards; and Cotchery caught 5 passes for 33 yards and a score. Folk was 1 for 1 on FG tries and Weatherford put 1 of his 4 punts inside the 20. Pool made 6 tackles and had a pick. Thomas also had a pick. Pace and Pryce had a sack a piece.

Green Bay’s Championship Round Game

The red hot Packers came into last Sunday’s game having already beaten the Eagles and the Falcons on the road. Still, it surprised some that they were actually 3.5 point favorites on the road against the Bears last week. The two teams had split the season series, and when the Packers did beat the Bears in week 17, it was at home, by a score of 10-3, when they needed a win to get into the playoffs and the Bears had absolutely nothing to gain.

The two conference championship games were remarkably similar. Like the AFC game later in the day, this one looked surprisingly easy for the favored team early on. But despite the loss of their starting QB, the Bears fought their way back into the game and made things competitive in the end.

The Packers outscored the Bears 7-0 in the 1st quarter and 7-0 in the 2nd. After a scoreless 3rd quarter, the Bears outscored Green Bay 14-7 in the 4th. It was 14-0 Green Bay until the 12:02 point in the 4th. From then on the Bears outscored the Packers 14-7. Green Bay ended up outgaining the Bears 356-301 and they had a 23-17 edge in 1st downs. The Packers outgained Chicago 120-83 on the ground and 236-218 through the air. The Pack had just over an 8 minute edge in time of possession (34:04-25:56). Green Bay won the sack battle 2-1 and the turnover battle 3-2. Neither team had much success on 3rd down, with the Packers going 2 for 11 (did not attempt a 4th down conversion) and the Bears going 1 for 13 (1 for on 4th down). The Packers were 2 for 3 scoring TD’s in the red zone, while the Bears went 1 for 1. Green Bay committed 6 penalties for 40 yards; the Bears were hit with 9 penalties for 89 yards.


As unbelievable as Aaron Rodgers had been against Atlanta, during the days leading up to the game with Chicago, many people had said that he simply would not be able to do the same thing against the Bears defense. But on Green Bay’s first possession, Rodgers picked up right where he left off the week before, making it look easy. The Packers started at their own 16, and on the first play, Rodgers hit Greg Jennings for 22 yards. He hit Jennings for 26 yards on the next play. Then James Starks got a carry and picked up 6. He picked up 6 more on the next play. On the next play Rodgers went back to the air and hit Jordy Nelson for 22 yards, setting up first and goal at the 2. On 2nd and goal from the 1, Rodgers bootlegged left and went around the end and put the ball over the line in the corner by the pylon for a touchdown to make it 7-0 Green Bay just like that. They went 84 yards in just 4:10 on only 7 plays.

After Green Bay’s impressive opening drive, the Bears got off to a good start in their attempt to answer the score. On 2nd and 8 from the 39, Jay Cutler dropped a pass off to Matt Forte and he went 29 yards to the Green Bay 37. But on 3rd and 7 from the 34, Cutler went deep for Devin Hester and overthrew him. The Bears punted and Green Bay got the ball back at their own 10.

On the first play of their 2nd possession, Starks went around left end for 16 yards and a 1st down out at the 26. Green Bay neared midfield with a 1st and 10 at the 47, but Rodgers then threw 3 straight incompletions and the Packers brought out Tim Masthay. The punter would play a key role in their victory. His first punt backed Hester up to the 13 and he only managed to bring it out to the 16. He would be contained all day.

Chicago’s 2nd drive began with a false start. They ran it twice to set up 3rd and 6 from the 20, but Cullen Jenkins and Clay Matthews got to Cutler for a sack at the 15 and Chicago had to punt after a 3-and-out. Tramon Williams returned the punt 11 yards to give the Packers excellent field position at their 49. On the first play after the punt, Rodgers found Jennings again for 21 yards and a 1st down at the 30. But on 3rd and 7 from the 27 Brian Urlacher wrapped up Rodgers at the 35 for a sack and a loss of 8. Green Bay had to punt again. This time Masthay pinned the Bears at their own 3. A holding penalty during the kick backed Chicago up to the 2.

The 1st quarter ended with the Bears facing another 3rd and long from deep in their own territory. On 3rd and 8 from the 4, the Bears gave it to Forte and Jenkins knocked him for a 2 yard loss. Brad Maynard got the punt away while standing in the back of the end zone. It looked like the Packers might have tremendous field position, but the ball bounced off of Williams at the 39 and he had to go back and retrieve it at the 50. He made it back to the 44, giving the Packers great field position for a 3rd straight possession. This time the Packers took advantage. On 2nd and 13 from the 47, Rodgers dropped a pass off to Brandon Jackson and he went for 16 yards to the 31. Starks then ran for 12, Rodgers hit Nelson for 15 to the 4, and on the next play Starks ran right and reached the ball over the goal line for the touchdown to make it 14-0.

The Bears desperately needed to answer. They began their 4th possession at their own 34, and on the 1st play, Cutler found Johnny Knox down the left sideline for 24 yards and a 1st down in Green Bay territory. On 2nd and 10 from the 42, Cutler dropped a pass off to Chester Taylor for 12 yards and a 1st down at the 30. On the next play, Cutler dropped back and had Devin Hester open near the right corner of the goal line. Had he made an accurate pass, Hester would have either scored or gone out of bounds inside the 5. But Cutler threw it out of bounds. Rashied Davis caught a pass for 13 yards on the next play, but a hold on Taylor made it 2nd and 21 from the 41. Cutler scrambled for 9 yards on the next play, but on 3rd down he was brought down after a gain of only 1, bring up 4th and 11 from the 31. The Bears punted and Maynard put it in the end zone for a touchback, meaning Chicago had gained 11 yards of field position.

It might have seemed that the Bears played it a bit too safe in punting from the 31, especially with Robbie Gould kicking. But in that weather and on that field, a 48 yard FG try would be somewhat of a risk to take when it would only make the score 14-3 and a miss would give Green Bay the ball near midfield again. Maybe they should have just gone for it on 4th and 11. In the end, it looked like a bad decision. The Packers wound up getting the ball at the 20, Starks ran for 10 yards on the first play, and then Rodgers scrambled for a gain of 25 yards to the Chicago 45 on the next play. Now it was Green Bay’s turn to play it really (really) safe. On 3rd and 1 from the 36, the Packers ran Starks to the right and he gained nothing. Leading 14-0, the Packers then punted on 4th and 1 from the 36. It turned out better for the Pack, as Masthay pinned the Bears at the 11, but clearly Green Bay was feeling confident about their 14-0 lead.

The Bears offense continued to struggle, as Cutler threw incomplete on 2nd down from the 11, but defensive holding on Williams gave them a 1st down at the 16. On 2nd down from the 16, Forte ran to the 30 for a gain of 14. Following the 2-minute warning, Cutler dropped back to throw on 3rd and 7 from the 33. Sam Shields came on a late blitz and rocked Cutler at the 25, knocking the ball free. This was the first of several big plays turned in by Shields. Forte actually scooped the ball up at the 23 and started to try and make something of the play, but due to rules concerning 3rd down fumbles with less than 2 minutes left in the half, the play was blown dead. Chicago punted and the Packers took over at their 36 with 1:44 on the clock.

The Packers had 1 timeout remaining and Rodgers scrambled again for 12 yards on the first play after the punt. On 3rd and 1 from the Bears 43, Rodgers ran again and picked up 2 yards for a 1st down at the 41. Out of a no-huddle, Rodgers dropped back and fired out to the left for Donald Driver. The throw was low and Driver bent down to catch it but it bounced hard off of his hands and right into the hands of Lance Briggs at the 38. Briggs went down at the 42 with 49 seconds left in the half. The Bears had a pair of timeouts in their pocket, and on the first play after the turnover, Forte caught a pass for 17 yards and got out of bounds at the Green Bay 41 with 42 seconds left.

The Bears still had 2 timeouts and 42 seconds to work with, but on the next play, Cutler decided to take a shot, firing deep down the left sideline for Knox. Cutler had time and protection to throw, but he threw the ball as he was backing up, and Knox—while he was matched up in single coverage—was never really open. Shields reached up and intercepted at the 3. After hitting the turf, he got up and returned the ball to the 11 with 32 seconds left. The play was upheld under replay, and afterwards, Cutler headed to the locker room with a few staff members, apparently suffering from some sort of injury. The Packers had 2 timeouts left but they decided to take a knee and head to the half with a 14-0 lead.

The Packers had basically dominated the 1st half, but they had failed to put the game away, despite numerous chances. The Bears would get the ball first in the 2nd half, and Hester returned the kick 24 yards to give Chicago good field position at their 40. On 3rd and 4 from the 46, Cutler dropped back to pass. He had time and he had Earl Bennett—who had come out of the backfield—open to the right, but Cutler went over the middle to Forte, again throwing while backing up, and it hit the dirt a few feet in front of his running back. A 3-and-out to start the 2nd half was not what Chicago had in mind, but the last pass by Cutler would have consequences beyond forcing a punt. Cutler, who had strained his MCL at some point during the first half, would not play another down.

Following Chicago’s 3-and-out, the Packers began their first possession of the 2nd half at their own 17. On 3rd and 8 from the 19, Rodgers hit Nelson for a gain of 21 yards and a 1st down at the 40. On the next play, Rodgers and Jennings hooked up again for 20 yards and a 1st down at the Chicago 40. Starks ran for 9 yards on the next play. On 3rd and 1 from the 31, Rodgers went deep for James Jones down the right sideline. He threw a perfect pass, and Tim Jennings was forced to hold Jones’ arm down in order to keep him from making the catch and probably scoring. Pass interference was called and the Packers had a 1st and goal at the 8.

Surely now they would put the game away. But two plays later they were facing 3rd and goal from the 6. Rodgers dropped to pass and stepped up the middle. He couldn’t run because it was 3rd and goal. So he looked for a place to fit the ball in over the middle and made a mistake. Brian Urlacher stepped in front and intercepted at the 6 and then headed up the right sideline. Rodgers sprinted towards the sideline, hoping to cut Urlacher off. The key to the play was that Rodgers was able to slow himself down, so that when Urlacher cut it back towards the middle, Rodgers was able to keep his feet long enough to put his arms around Urlacher’s legs and do enough to trip him up at the 45.

Had Rodgers simply gone full speed all the way, his legs would have gone out from under him when Urlacher cut. Had that happened, Urlacher may well have gone all the way for a touchdown, and the least he would have taken it deep inside Green Bay territory. As big of a play as this was, it would have been much bigger if Urlacher could have at least taken the ball back to Green Bay’s red zone, because Todd Collins was now going to enter the game at QB for the Bears.

His first series didn’t go well. He threw incomplete, then the cadence change caused a false start, than he threw incomplete again, and then on 3rd down he threw over the middle and was picked off by Nick Collins at the Green Bay 44. Chicago challenged and the play was ruled incomplete, but the Bears had to punt and the Packers got it back at their 21.

The Packers had dodged a bullet but they still hadn’t been able to put the game away. Their next drive began with Starks carrying for 8 yards, but a holding penalty wiped it out and made it 1st and 17 from the 14. On 2nd and 16 from the 15, the Packers came up with yet another soul crushing play, with Jennings making a catch for 22 yards and a 1st down at the 37. On 2nd down from the 39, Rodgers scrambled and got back to the line of scrimmage, but a holding penalty made it 2nd and 18 from the 29. On 3rd and 9 from the 38 Rodgers fired incomplete and the Packers had to punt. Masthay again did the job, backing Hester up to the 16, and he was brought down after just 2 yards at the 18.

Once again it was Collins who took the field for Chicago. They went 3-and-out again, as Collins threw incomplete on 3rd and 2. At this point the Packers nearly helped the Bears get back in it again. Williams fielded the punt at the 31 and was hit and lost the ball. The Packers fell on it at the 27. Not only that, but the Bears were actually called for an illegal man downfield, so the Packers got the ball at the 32. Bears fans had to be running low on hope.

But Chicago’s defense had settled in. On 2nd and 8 from the 34, the Packers gave the ball to Jackson and the Bears weren’t fooled. Urlacher dropped him for a loss of 5. On 3rd and 13 Rodgers fired incomplete for a 3-and-out. Once again, Masthay came through for the Packers. His punt backed Hester up to the 18 and the coverage dropped him all the way back at the 14 for a loss of 4. However, Green Bay was now hit with a costly penalty and they had to rekick. This time Bennett went back to return at the 11 and he brought it out 22 yards to the 33. Still a pretty solid effort by Masthay, but the Bears would have breathing room to work with.

It was at this point that the feel of the game changed. Green Bay’s inability to put the Bears away had to be causing their fans much disconcertment. But for unbiased observers, since the moment the Packers went ahead 14-0, there had not been a second when an eventual Green Bay win seemed in doubt. But now, with 57 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, having seen the veteran Collins fail miserably on two possessions, the Bears inserted 3rd year pro Caleb Hanie, a former undrafted free agent out of Colorado State. In 3 seasons he had played in 4 games, completing 8 of 14 passes for 66 yards, no TD’s, a pick and 2 sacks. He had not played since week 5. But he was not timid.

As you might expect, the Bears ran the ball on Hanie’s first few plays. Still, the Packers did not shut it down, as Forte gained 11 yards on 1st down, and then ran for 4 on the final play of the 3rd quarter. Haine threw his first pass on the first play of the 4th quarter, dropping one off to Forte for 8 yards and a 1st down at the Packers 44. On 2nd and 7 from the 41, Forte ran for 11 yards to take the ball to the 30. On the next play, Matthews ate Taylor up for a 3 yard loss, but on 2nd and 13, Hanie threw complete to Knox for 32 yards and a 1st and goal at the 1. On the next play, Taylor pushed into the end zone for a TD to put the Bears on the board and cut the deficit in half. They had moved 67 yards in 8 plays over just 3:55 and they were down just 14-7 with 12:02 remaining.

For the first time in the game, the pressure was now on Green Bay as they took over following the Bears TD. On 2nd and 9 from the 25, Rodgers went deep down the right seam incomplete, getting sandwiched as he released the ball. He was rocked on the play by Julius Peppers—who hit him in the jaw with the top of his helmet—and Lance Briggs—who brought his hand down on his facemask. It was a major shot, but it wasn’t all bad for Green Bay. Peppers was called for roughing the passer, so instead of 3rd and 9 from the 25, the Packers had a 1st and 10 at the 39.

After a false start, Rodgers threw over the middle for Driver incomplete, but Jennings was again called for pass interference, giving the Pack another 1st down at their 49. However, on 3rd and 2 from the Bears 43, Rodgers fired a bullet on a quick slant to Andrew Quarless and it went right through his hands. They had to punt and this time Masthay did not come through, sending it into the end zone for a touchback. Chicago took over at their 20 with 9:19 to go.

The Packers defense might have been playing soft on the previous Chicago possession but they turned things back on for Hanie’s 2nd drive. Forte was stopped for no gain on 1st down and then Hanie threw back to back incompletions for a quick 3-and-out. Maynard’s punt was not a great one and the Packers got the ball right back at the Chicago 44 with 8:22 to play. Once again they had a chance to put it away. But the Bears defense wouldn’t allow it. Rodgers may have been feeling the effects of the shot to the jaw, because on 3rd and 1 from the 35 he had Tom Crabtree open for a short completion and bounced it. Once again the Packers played it safe and punted on 4th and 1 from the 35. Masthay put this one out of bounds at the 10. The Packers had only managed to take a minute off the clock. The Bears took over with 7:22 to go.

Facing a 3rd and 5 from the 15, the Bears decided to take their first timeout and talk things over. On 3rd down, Hanie dropped back to pass and BJ Raji dropped into coverage. He picked Hanie off at the 18 and went into the end zone to make it 21-7 with 6:04 left, seemingly sending the Packers to the Super Bowl.

Things looked bleak for Chicago but Hanie wasn’t ready to give in. Davis returned the ensuing kickoff 16 yards to give the Bears solid field position at their 40. Hanie now went to work, often throwing on the run while eluding pressure. He hit Greg Olsen for 13 yards. Then he hit Bennett for 7. On 2nd and 3 he dropped one off to Forte for 5 yards and a 1st down. All of the sudden the Bears were at the 35 of Green Bay.

But it was on the next play that things got interesting. Hanie dropped back and fired a pass to the left side complete to Bennett. The Green Bay safety then turned it into a huge play, coming up too aggressively and whiffing on the tackle, allowing Bennett to go all the way into the end zone for the score to make it a 7 point game again with still 4:43 on the clock. Behind a 3rd string QB, the Bears had gone 60 yards in just 4 plays, using up only 1:21 of clock. It happened so fast it was almost as if the Bears had run the ball on 3rd down on the previous possession instead of throwing it and then punted, basically negating the pick-six by Raji.

Again the pressure was on Rodgers and the Green Bay offense as they took over at their 25 with 4:38 to play. Starks was stopped for no gain on 1st down. Then on 2nd down the play was strung out and he lost 2 and went out of bounds to stop the clock. On 3rd and 12 from the 23, the Packers put it in Rodgers hands but he couldn’t find anyone open. He tried to run but Urlacher was spying and he forced Rodgers to slide after a gain of only a yard. Masthay was called on to punt once again. Again Hester would have a chance, as Masthay boomed a punt to the 18. Hester brought it back to the 29. It was a decent return, but the fact that the Packers didn’t allow him to bring the ball out close to midfield may have been one of the more underappreciated plays of the game.

The Bears took over at their 29 with 2:53 remaining and 2 timeouts. On 3rd and 9, Hanie found Olsen for 10 yards and a 1st down at the 40. On the next play he showed his inexperience, getting called for intentional grounding to bring up 2nd and 20 from the 30. On the next play he threw short to Forte for 11 yards. That set up a reasonable 3rd and 9 from the 41. Again Hanie went to Forte and this time he picked up 8 yards, taking the ball close to midfield, as the 2-minute warning hit. It was 4th and 1 from the Chicago 49. Chester Taylor took the handoff and went over right tackle for 4 yards and a 1st down at the Packers 47. They were still alive.

Running out of a no-huddle, Hanie took the shotgun snap on the next play and hit Forte underneath. He picked up 13 yards and managed to get out of bounds at the 34, stopping the clock with 1:27 to go. On 2nd and 10, Hanie hit Olsen for 7 yards and he got out of bounds at the 27 with 1:15 to play. Despite the fact that the clock was stopped, the Bears decided to call their 2nd timeout, as they were facing a 3rd and 3 from the 27.

While this decision might appear to be based on sound thinking, it was probably not the way to go at this point. They had called a timeout on 3rd down when they were deep in their own territory and on the next play Hanie threw a pick-six. So far, much of Hanie’s success had come on plays where he just bought time and found a receiver. Much of this had been done running a no-huddle, not allowing Green Bay to set their defense. On 5 no-huddle plays to this point, Hanie was 5 for 5 for 68 yards and a TD. But the Bears decided to call a timeout to come up with a great play. The play that they came up with was not great. They decided to hand the ball off to Earl Bennett running around the left end. He was cut down in the backfield by Desmond Bishop at the 29 for a loss of 2. Now it was 4th and 5.

Now the Bears went into a no-huddle and attempted to get a play in on the fly. Hanie took the shotgun snap. He had time, and he actually had a man open to his right, but in the pressure and chaos of the moment, knowing that he could not take a sack, Hanie got rid of the ball, firing over the middle into coverage for Knox. Shields made another play, intercepting at the 12. He returned it to the 44 before going down with 37 seconds to go. That sealed the win. Rodgers took a knee to run out the clock and ice the 21-14 victory.

While he started out on fire and had flashes of brilliance at different points throughout the game, Rodgers ended up having a fairly pedestrian day. He completed 17 of 30 passes for 244 yards, no TD’s, and 2 picks, posting just a 55.4 rating. He did run 7 times for 39 yards and a TD. Starks ran 22 times for 74 yards and a TD, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Jennings had a huge game, grabbing 8 passes for 130 yards. Nelson made 4 catches for 67 yards. Masthay was huge, putting 5 of 8 punts inside the 20. Shields was the defensive star, recording 4 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, and 2 picks. Raji had a pick-six.

Cutler was 6 for 14 for 80 yards, no TD’s, and a pick before getting hurt. He had a 31.8 rating, running twice for 10 yards. Collins was 0 for 4. Hanie went 13 for 20 for 153 yards, a TD, and 2 picks, posting a 65.2 rating. Forte ran 17 times for 70 yards, averaging 4.1 per rush, and he caught 10 passes for 90 yards. Taylor had just 3 carries for 2 yards but he scored a TD and picked up a huge 1st down on 4th down late in the game. He caught 1 pass for 12 yards. Knox made 2 catches for 56 yards and Bennett made 3 catches for 45 yards and a TD. Bennett also had a 22 yard punt return. Hester was shutdown. He did not catch a single pass, had just 1 kick return for 24 yards, and returned 3 punts for just 15 yards. Urlacher had a great game, making 9 tackles, a sack, and a huge pick that he returned 39 yards. Briggs had 4 tackles and a pick.

Injury News

Pittsburgh: We can assume that almost everyone on both teams is banged up in some way. Injury reports are always confusing and they’ve been vaguer than ever this week. Honestly, the only guys we can rule out are on IR. DE Aaron Smith has been out since very early in the season with a triceps injury. The injury was originally only expected to keep him out 6 weeks or so but Smith has yet to return. Sadly, it doesn’t appear that Smith will play in the Super Bowl either.

The big news since championship Sunday has been the availability of Steelers rookie Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey. He went down early in the AFC title game and never returned. Originally it was reported that he had a high ankle sprain; a harmless sounding injury that we have all learned can take a long time to heal. Then one of Pouncey’s line-mates stated that he would not play in the big game. It was stated so casually that it was almost as if in passing. Early in this week it was reported that Pouncey had not only suffered a severe high ankle sprain but had also broken a bone. But then just a day or so later Pouncey twice stated that he would play. Mike Tomlin has refused to rule him out. Now, it’s highly possible that this has all been an elaborate scheme of deception. It’s equally plausible that it has all been a completely unintentional scheme of deception. All we really know is that he suffered a significant ankle injury that could cause him to miss Sunday’s game.

Green Bay: Again, all we can say for sure is that the guys on IR are out. LB Frank Zombo has been out since week 14 with a knee injury, but it looks like there is a decent chance he will return for the big game this Sunday. We can also assume that just about every other player on the roster is banged up in some way.

Series History: These are two of the older franchises in the NFL, as the Packers were an original NFL team, and the Steelers came along in 1933 (then called the Pirates). This series does not have a particularly rich history, as it took the Steelers many years to be competitive, and when the two teams were split into separate conferences in 1970 it limited the number of regular season (and postseason) matchups between the two.

The Packers hold an 18-14 edge in the all-time series. The first matchup was on October 15th, 1933 in Green Bay, with the Packers winning 47-0. The Packers won the first 9 meetings (through 1946), outscoring the Steelers 289-62 over that time, winning by average margin of 32-7. The Steelers have gone 14-9 against Green Bay since then. The Steelers have won the last 3 meetings and 7 of the last 9. The last meeting was in week 15 of 2009 at Pittsburgh, with the Steelers winning a wild shootout, 37-36.

Team Playoff Histories

Pittsburgh: This is the 26th trip to the playoffs in franchise history (25th since 1972 and the 7th in the last 10 years). The Steelers have a 33-19 record in the playoffs. They have won 5 straight playoff games and 9 of their last 10. This is the 3rd playoff appearance in 4 years under Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are 5-1 in the playoffs under Tomlin. This is the 5th trip to the playoffs for Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are 10-2 with Big Ben at quarterback. The Steelers are 6-1 in the Super Bowl (1-0 under Tomlin, 2-0 with Big Ben). This is the 3rd trip to the Super Bowl in the last 6 years for Pittsburgh. Their last Super Bowl appearance was in 2008, when they beat the Cardinals. With their 8th Super Bowl appearance the Steelers will tie the Dallas Cowboys for the most all-time. They already hold the record for most Super Bowl titles with 6. Among teams who have played in more than 1 Super Bowl, only the San Francisco 49ers have a better winning percentage in Super Bowls than the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Green Bay: This is the 26th trip to the playoffs in franchise history (2nd straight and 3rd in the last 4 years). The Packers have a 28-16 record in the playoffs. This is the 3rd playoff appearance in 5 years under Mike McCarthy. The Packers are 4-2 in the playoffs under McCarthy. This is the 2nd straight trip to the playoffs for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are 3-1 in the playoffs with Rodgers at quarterback. The Packers are 3-1 in the Super Bowl (first appearance for McCarthy and Rodgers). Green Bay’s last Super Bowl appearance was in 1997, when they lost to the Broncos. Their last Super Bowl win came in 1996 against the Patriots. Packers fans would surely have me note that the franchise holds 12 NFL Championships in their history (the most all-time). They won 3 NFL titles before the onset of the playoffs, and they were 6-2 in NFL Championship Games prior to the onset of the Super Bowl. The Packers are 9-3 all-time in NFL Championship Games.

History at Stake: Is this a matchup of the two greatest franchises in NFL history? I have not yet heard this question asked, perhaps because so much of the last few days has been focused around the two teams that lost on Championship Sunday (Jets and Bears). In answer to my original question, I think you can make a great case that it is. There are only so many teams who can even make a claim to be one of the two greatest in history. Certainly the Steelers and Packers are in the discussion.

If they aren’t the two greatest, who is? It’s actually a harder question than you might think, simply because the NFL is now in its 10th decade. Consider that we are coming up on Super Bowl XLV, and that NFL history goes back 46 years before Super Bowl I (the 1920 and 1921 APFA seasons are included in official NFL records). While the number of teams, players, games, and playoff games (among many other things) has greatly increased since the early years of the NFL, I’m not prepared to discount championships won before the Super Bowl Era. Nobody is going to take down banners at New Yankee Stadium or wherever the Canadiens are now playing. The Lakers just put up banners in honor of the titles won in Minnesota a few years ago. So while the explosion of the NFL’s popularity has occurred during the Super Bowl Era, that doesn’t mean that you can just dismiss the first half of the league’s history.

To make a long story short (too late), I think my original question is really a topic for another blog entry. However, this is a matchup between the team with the most overall league championships (the Packers with 12) and the team with the most Super Bowl championships (the Steelers with 6). So that is something. But there is plenty at stake in this one. Mike Tomlin has now equaled Bill Cowher in Super Bowl appearances (2 each) and with a win he would surpass Cowher in Super Bowl titles (2 to 1). Roethlisberger has a chance to join Troy Aikman and Tom Brady with 3 Super Bowl titles, behind only Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw (4 each) among quarterbacks. For Green Bay, Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers can equal the number of titles won by Mike Holmgren and Brett Favre. Think about that.

Matchups

Coaching Matchup

Edge: Steelers.

Comments: I’ve become much more of a believer in Mike Tomlin this year. Obviously he’s an excellent leader and he knows how to direct a team, as he’s taken his team to the Super Bowl twice in 4 years as a coach. But I’m starting to gain respect for him as an in-game coach as well. He just seems to know the right buttons to push at times. Also, he rarely hurts his team with his decision making.

There’s little doubt that Mike McCarthy is a great offensive mind and quarterback tutor. I’m less impressed with McCarthy as an in-game manager. I’ve been a critic of McCarthy’s decision making for years, and there were several questionable strategic moves in the NFC Championship Game that I thought helped the Bears to stay in the game. In addition, I’ve been unimpressed with the way he has handled the team during the break between the conference championship game and the Super Bowl. I could be wrong—and it might not even matter--but so far it seems like he’s losing the battle of getting his team mentally prepared to win the Super Bowl.

Both teams have excellent defensive coordinators. Dom Capers is one of the best DC’s in the game, but I think Dick LeBeau might be the best. I’m sure Capers will have a good game plan to throw at Pittsburgh. However, I think LeBeau—with two weeks to game plan—will be able to do more to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense than anyone they’ve faced in the playoffs. I would also think that the Steelers would be better at making halftime adjustments.

Quarterback Matchup

Edge: Push.

Comments: If you ask me to pick a quarterback to lead my team over the course of an entire season, Rodgers would be higher than Ben Roethlisberger on my list. However, I think Big Ben’s record in big games and his history of making plays late in the game evens things up.

Pittsburgh Offense vs. Green Bay Defense

Edge: Packers.

Comments: On paper it looks almost like a mismatch. In reality, I don’t think the Packers will be able to complete shutdown the Pittsburgh rushing or passing attack. They should be able to at least control the running game and force quite a few 3rd and longs. They should be able to put pressure on Big Ben and they have the defensive backs to stay with Pittsburgh’s speedy receivers. The problem is that other teams have been able to do this as well (the Ravens, the Jets) and Big Ben and the Steelers have been able to make plays anyway.

Green Bay Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense

Edge: Steelers.

Comments: I expect the Steelers to complete stifle Green Bay’s running game and I think they’ll limit Rodgers’ ability to make plays with his feet. I also think they’ll be able to get to Rodgers for pressures, hits, and sacks. I’m sure there will be times when Rodgers is protected and when this happens he will be able to hit open receivers. But overall, I think we’ll see Rodgers and the Green Bay offense struggle more in the Super Bowl than they have so far in the playoffs.

Special Teams Matchup

Edge: Push.

Comments: The Packers did an excellent job on special teams in the NFC Championship Game. But neither team is very good in this area.

Other Tangible Factors Matchup

Edge: Push.

Comments: By design, there should be no home field advantage in the Super Bowl. The game is played on a neutral field, with the fans of both teams having an opportunity to acquire tickets. Moreover, much of the audience is typically made up of neutral fans from the surrounding areas. A great number of tickets are bought by corporations and used for entertainment and business purposes. The price of tickets alone often excludes many of the most avid fans. In addition, both teams have large, widespread, and dedicated fan bases. Packer fans are probably equal to Pittsburgh fans in terms of loyalty and passion. However, it is my belief that “Steeler Nation” is much larger and more widespread than “Packer Nation.”

To be sure, there are Packers fans everywhere. But there are a lot of Steelers fans everywhere. There is a Steelers bar in seemingly every town in America. While Green Bay may have the highest percentage of city inhabitants watching the game on Sunday (it’s hard to imagine that there are many football fans living in Green Bay who are not Packers fans; it’s also hard to believe that there are many people living in Green Bay who are not Packers fans), I once heard of a study which claimed that Pittsburgh Steelers games draw the largest TV audience of any team outside of their home city. My point here is that while the fan bases of both teams are among the best in sports, the Steelers fan base is probably much larger. Considering that this year’s Super Bowl is expected to break the record for attendance—with perhaps 105,000 people in the building—there’s a possibility that a great number of real Pittsburgh Steelers fans could be in attendance. If that number dwarfs the number of real Green Bay Packers fans, than there could actually be a bit of an advantage in terms of noise.

We’ve seen this before in recent years. I thought there was a noticeable difference in the level of noise when the Colts were on offense against the Bears in Super Bowl XLI, particularly early in the game when the Bears had the upper hand. However, we have seen noise level have less and less of an effect on teams in recent years. Home field advantage in general doesn’t seem to be as big of a deal nowadays. The Packers have already won 3 times in these playoffs in hostile environments. The Steelers seem to draw energy from the crowd when playing at Heinz Field, and at times the opposition looks a little rattled. Even if there are 60,000 Steelers fans in attendance for this one, I don’t think that will be the case, simply because the unusual pace of the game—with longer and more frequent TV breaks and an extended halftime show—and the overall corporate/Hollywood atmosphere of the Super Bowl won’t allow it.

But there is another aspect of the location of the game that should be discussed. I have heard some people say that the fact that the game is indoors and on turf will give Green Bay an advantage. Surely this is at least in some part due to the tremendous performance of the Packers in the divisional round against the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. However, I believe it’s foolish to think that the outcome of that game would have been much different had it been played at old Atlanta Fulton County Stadium. The key to that game was that the Packers came in with an outstanding game plan and they executed it to perfection. A handful of big plays allowed the game to get truly out of hand. If the Packers are well suited both offensively and defensively to playing on the carpet, surely the Steelers are just as well suited to that surface. The Steelers have plenty of speed on defense and the speed of their receivers is perhaps their biggest weapon offensively. I don’t think the surface or the arena gives either side an advantage.

Both teams will obviously come into this game supremely confident. Motivation and experience may not be so obviously equal. In the past, some teams seemed to have been “just happy to be there.” The team we might suspect of having this attitude would be the Packers. However, I really don’t see that being an issue at all in this case. The Packers seem plenty motivated to win this game. This was not a situation where just getting to the Super Bowl was a miraculous achievement or a cause for a never-before-seen reaction from the franchise and the fans base. Furthermore, the “just happy to be there” trait really has not been commonly seen in recent years. It could be that it was never really there to begin with, and that teams who got trampled in the past were really just not nearly as good as the teams they faced.

Moving on, the Steelers obviously have the edge in experience. If the “just happy to be there” trait is a myth, I doubt we can say the same for the “effected by the magnitude of the event” trait. This seems to be a real thing. Some teams that are inexperienced and playing on this sort of a stage for the first time may be worn down by the intense coverage and build up. They may be affected by the pressure of the bright lights. We know this will not be an issue for the Steelers, who have won the Super Bowl twice in the last 6 years. We don’t know yet for sure about the Packers. If I were a Packers fan I’d be a little worried about the way the team has dealt with the stage so far. Still, I think there are enough veterans and big game performers on the team to make this a non-issue.

It seems strange to say this, but for once I think the Packers are the team less at risk of being effected by health. They lost a lot of key players early on, but guys stepped in and stepped up and the team they have right now is fairly healthy. On the other side, the Steelers have dealt with fewer injuries. The problem is that the injuries that have hit Pittsburgh have primarily hurt the same area: offensive line. They have lost starters and backups at the tackle spots and the players who are currently manning those positions are banged up. Then in the AFC Championship Game they lost starting center Maurkice Pouncey. The injury affected Pittsburgh in that game and it could be a factor again in the Super Bowl. Having said this, it’s hard for me to get too caught up in yet another offensive line injury for the Steelers, when they’ve continued to win all season in spite of all of the previous injuries and the lack of protection for QB Ben Roethlisberger.

Intangibles Matchup

Edge: Push.

Comments: The Packers are definitely the “hot” team. They’ve looked a team destined to win it all since the start of the playoffs. But the Steelers have that intangible “it” that allows them to win big games.

Overall Matchup

Edge: Push.

Comments: You might think this is weak, but it really is a push. The teams are evenly matched, and while the Packers might have a slight edge on paper, the Steelers have the experience, and again, they just know how to win. It should be a good one.