The College Football Blog: 2010 Season Preview

2010 Season Preview

*Note: The season preview will not be seen this year. The ugliness of the off-season has sapped my excitement for the upcoming year and hindered my ability to create any sort of preview. Therefore, the 2010 season preview will be replaced by the 2010 off-season review.

2010 Off-season Review

As you know, I am a sports freak. Of all the different sports that I follow, I enjoy college football the most. Actually, I need to clarify that. There’s no sport I enjoy more during the season than college football. From the first game of the year to the final bowl game I am completely wrapped up in the sport and enjoy (almost) every minute. The strange thing is that from the day after the so-called national championship game to the day before the regular season begins I really don’t like college football. It’s not that my love for the game or my interest in the sport wanes during the spring and summer months. The problem is that as much as I love the on-field action of college football, I detest almost all of the off-field action. I loathe the NCAA. I have disdain for the university presidents and the conference commissioners. I wish ill will toward agents and “advisers.” I am sickened by the recruitment process. The inevitable suspensions and sanctions and ineligibilities eat away at the excitement that should be building up as the season nears.

However, the 2010 off-season was different because for once there was no turmoil or controversy, and the powers that be let everyone else be, at least for the most part. I mean, there were some exceptions...

Crusades and Imaginary Plagues

First, some sinister and meddling outfit calling itself the Rules Committee gathered together and proved to the world that they were dead fucking serious about putting an end to the thing which has been plaguing college football for the last few years: taunting. I mean it’s almost ruined the sport, hasn’t it? All of those brawls we’ve seen; the elaborate end zone celebrations; the classless showmanship that almost ever player displays, etc. It had gotten out of control.

Oh wait; we haven’t actually seen any of that stuff, have we? Now I remember: it was actually the misguided actions of officials ruling against non-existent examples of taunting that had become a bit of a problem. The good news is that in 2011 the officials will be able to affect the outcome of the game more than ever before, as any action that draws a penalty for taunting will be a 15 yard penalty from the spot of the foul…EVEN IF THE PLAY ULTIMATELY RESULTS IN A TOUCHDOWN!!! Yes, the points will come off the board. And the best part is, taunting will carry that most dreaded of all labels. Penalizing displays of taunting will be (foreboding sound effect) a point of emphasis! So we have that to look forward to a year from now.

Concussions: The New AIDS

The Rules Committee also focused on the prevention of Global Warming—er, sorry, I mean the prevention of concussions. At this point if there is even a chance that a player may be on the verge of coming close to showing the signs of what might be a possible concussion, that player must come out of the game and cannot reenter the game or ever step onto the field again until a panel of doctors who think that football is a blood sport have determined that the player is safe to resume playing. Any other player who that player may have come into contact with before, during, or after it was determined that there was a chance that the player might be on the verge of showing the signs of what might have a chance to be a concussion must also be cleared by the panel. And of course the panel’s decision has to be ratified by the Committee on Global Concussion Scare and Related Hot Button Topics at a special meeting held every other month. All of the importance placed on prevention and treatment of concussionish like symptoms guarantees that the ridiculous and disruptive penalties for touching another player’s helmet will continue and no doubt increase.

Manifest Destiny Deferred

The next few groups of boogey men to gather together and stir up trouble were the school presidents, the AD’s, and the conference commissioners. Suddenly it was determined that there would have to be some widespread realignment and expansion among conferences across college football. It was just something that had to happen. Everyone eventually came around to the conclusion that the best thing to do would be for a few teams to move conferences, and do so in a way that might improve things in their new conference, but would certainly take away from their former conferences. Just when the Mountain West had proven to be worthy of an automatic BCS bid, it was decided that Utah should move to be in a conference with a bunch of schools from California and the Pacific Northwest. Boise State, universally accepted as a true college football powerhouse, would then leave the WAC to take Utah’s place in the MWC, thereby making the WAC about as relevant as, well, the MAC.

Furthermore, it was decided that Colorado and Nebraska should both go to conferences made up of teams from completely different time zones. The Big Ten, which of course has been made up of 11 teams since the early 90’s, would now have 12 teams and could have a conference championship game. The Pac-10 would now have 12 teams, and that just made sense, not to mention the fact that it too could now have a conference championship game. Meanwhile, the Big XII, which had held a conference title for almost as long as the SEC, would now have 10 teams. Again, this only seemed logical. Plus, now the Big XII wouldn’t have a conference title game, so progress was made across the sport really. Things are now greatly improved and make so much more sense:

The Big Ten = 12 teams
The Pac-10 = 12 teams
The Big XII = 10 teams
The Mountain West Conference = 1 good team in, 1 good team out
The WAC = The MAC

The wisest action taken during the entire period of musical chairs was the Big XII’s decision to structure the conference so that certain member schools would take a larger portion of the profits made by the conference than other member schools. Essentially this move was made to ensure fairness and balance within the conference.

Continuing on the theme of fairness and logic, the most crucial outcome of all of this adding and subtracting was that Notre Dame was allowed to retain their independence and their ability to operate under a completely different set of rules and guidelines than the rest of college football. This was very important for everyone involved, because everyone realizes that Notre Dame is special and has to be treated that way. Obviously ND has been the most successful program over the last 20 years and they have earned the right to basically make their own rules. Expecting Notre Dame to join a conference and be subject to the same standards as the rest of the teams in college football would simply be unreasonable. Fortunately for everyone, Notre Dame avoided being forced to join a conference. Thankfully, they still have their own set of rules concerning the BCS which ensures that if Notre Dame manages to not suck they will go to one of the high profile bowls that they deserve to be in.

I Didn't Expect the Spanish Inquisition

Not to be outdone, just as the presidents and commissioners were completing their business, the great and powerful NCAA took the stage. After a lengthy and thorough investigation, the NCAA announced their findings on violations committed by USC in recent years. Basically the NCAA was not able to point to very many clear and proven violations by the Trojans, whether minor or otherwise. However, they were able to say that an agent claimed to have paid for property and travel expenses for the parents of Reggie Bush when he was at USC. Granted, if those allegations were true, they still didn’t have anything to do with Bush deciding to come to USC, and they didn’t keep him in school, as left for the pros as soon as he was eligible. But that’s really beside the point. The important thing was that the parents of one of USC’s players allegedly made a secret deal with someone unaffiliated with the program--which was only discovered after the agent sued the player’s parents for not upholding their end of the secret agreement—and USC allowed it all to happen by not maintaining complete and total supervision of the financial states of each and every family member, friend, and acquaintance of each and ever player on the team.

One of the most damning pieces of evidence against USC was the NCAA’s sense that there was a loose atmosphere around the football program. Another key element to the NCAA’s case against USC was a tactic which seemed simple and obvious after the fact, but was truly a stroke of genius. The NCAA was able to make it clear to everyone how out of line USC’s football program had been by pointing to all of the egregious violations committed by USC’s basketball program under Tim Floyd. The fact that O.J. Mayo’s decision to play his 1 season of college basketball for USC was influenced by money was the thing that really put the nail in the coffin of Pete Carroll’s football program. Floyd’s shady recruiting of Mayo to the USC basketball team amounted to DNA evidence linking Carroll’s football program to rampant violations of a very serious nature. It was a clear warning to football coaches around the country that if they want to keep their program from being put on probation, they better make damn sure that the school’s basketball program stays clean.

The NCAA was thus able to bring down the hammer upon the Trojan football program, drastically limiting their number of scholarships for the next few years, and making them ineligible for bowl games, rankings, conference championships, and the national championship. And as always there were wins to vacate and banners to take down. In the end it was a tremendous victory for the NCAA, as they were once again able to alter history, while at the same time meting out fair and just punishments. In one fowl swoop, the NCAA was able to muddy history and call into question the validity of the achievements of the single greatest program of the last decade, and keep what figures to be one of the best teams in the country over the next few years from being considered a part of the sport in any meaningful way. It was masterful.

And the NCAA served notice that their mission of purging the sport of college football was only just beginning. Indeed, new investigations into possible violations and infractions seemed to pop up every day for the remainder of the off-season. Numerous schools and a slew of the most impactful players in the sport were put on notice and placed in limbo. No one was safe; nothing was certain. The NCAA racked up a number of impressive achievements this off-season, but their single greatest accomplishment may well have been their ability to keep anyone and everyone from being able to look toward the upcoming season with any sort of idea about which teams or players would be eligible.

The Baseball Blog: A Few Thoughts with 50 Games to Play

A Glorious Summer or a Prelude to Baseball’s Winter?

I may be guilty of having a short memory but I cannot recall a baseball season in which there were so many compelling and tight races this late in the year. The NL West has 4 contenders as usual, including 3 teams from different parts of California. The battle for 1st place in the NL Central has been tight for months, and it just got a bit hotter with the recent words of rivalry exchanged between Brandon Phillips and Tony LaRussa, and the preemptive dustup on Tuesday night. In the East, the Braves are trying to unseat the 2-time defending NL Champs in the final season of Bobby Cox’s career.

Over in the AL, the richest and most storied franchise in history is in a dog fight with one of the cheapest and least supported in the game. And the Yanks’ hated rivals from Boston are battered and beaten but lingering. It’s business as usual in the AL Central, where we can basically assume that things will still be undecided at the start of the final day of the season (and maybe at the end of the final day of the season). The only team with a comfortable lead atop their division hasn’t won a division title since 1999 and has only 3 such titles in their 38 year history. And we haven’t even gotten close enough to the end to start focusing on the Wild Card races. The pennant races haven’t been this exciting, this late in the year since...well, since ever as far as I know.

And yet, baseball is dangerously close to being eclipsed by preseason football…almost 6 weeks prior to the start of the NFL season. Most of the stories in the sports world have faded towards the end of the summer, but baseball has still not been able to grab the spotlight and hold the attention of the nation’s sporting public. Why? I mean, we all understand that football has become king in this country and probably will be for decades to come. Baseball’s “America’s Pastime” moniker has been outdated for many years now. But it would now appear possible that baseball has moved behind basketball as well.

You can talk about attendance and you can talk about ratings, but in this day of 24-hour sports news, 24-hour sports talk radio, twitter, blogs, etc. it isn’t difficult to gauge the interest in a certain game or a certain team. Right now, baseball seems to be an automatic afterthought. If these races stay as competitive as they have been all year and go down to the wire, baseball should be the main event. If that isn’t the case, the clown who will soon have a statue erected in his honor outside Miller Park should be concerned.

Yanks still on Pace to Reach a Hondo

Going into Tuesday the Yankees had the best record in the majors and were on pace for 100.8 wins. If they reach the 100 win plateau for the 2nd year in a row they will be the first team in either league to post back to back 100 win seasons since the Yanks did it 3 straight times from 2002-2004. The Padres have the best record in the NL and are on pace for 94.3 wins. No NL team has won 100 or more games since the Cardinals went 100-62 in 2005.

More on the Year of the Pitcher

Going into Tuesday, Ubaldo Jimenez was still on pace to win 25 games. No pitcher has won more than 22 games in a season since Randy Johnson won 24 in 2002. No pitcher has won more than 24 games since 1990, when Bob Welch won 27 for the A’s. There are currently 6 pitchers on pace for 20 or more wins. That would be the most 20-game winners in a season since 2002 when 6 different pitchers reached 20 wins. Last season no pitcher won more than 19 games.

Going into Tuesday, 6 qualified pitchers had ERA’s under 2.50. That would be the most pitchers with ERA under 2.50 since 7 pitchers did it in 1992. Josh Johnson’s ERA is still under 2.00 and he would be the first qualified pitcher to finish the season with a sub-2.00 ERA since Roger Clemens in 2005. There are also 6 pitchers who have WHIP rates currently under 1.05. 3 pitchers currently hold WHIP rates under 1.00. There have not been more than 5 pitchers with WHIP rates under 1.05 in a single season since before 1990. The last time 3 pitchers finished the season with sub-1.00 WHIP was 2004.

With 8 complete games at this point, Roy Halladay has a shot to match CC Sabathia’s 2008 total of 10 complete games which was the highest total since Randy Johnson went the distance 12 times in 1999. Halladay also has 3 shutouts this season. He needs 2 more to get to 5 and tie several players for the most shutouts in a season since the turn of the millennium.

The Return of the Homer?

Going into Tuesday night, 30 players had reached 20 homers on the season. Jose Bautista hit his MLB leading 35th dinger on Tuesday night. Last year Carlos Pena and Mark Teixeira tied for the AL lead with just 39 homers. In 2008, Miguel Cabrera led the AL with only 37 homers.

Bautista is on pace to become the first MLB player to hit 50 homers since 2007. Still, runs and homers are down across the game. If the season ended today it would be the first time since 1992 that the average runs per game was below 4.50, and the first time since 1993 that the MLB average was less than 1.00 homers per game.

The College Football Blog: 2010 Season Predictions

2010 College Football Predictions

o Teams placed according to specific guidelines for standings and tie-breakers within each individual conference.

o Conference records are in parenthesis: (#-#); regular season schedule records are open: #-#; final records after championship games and bowls are in brackets: [#-#].

o Conferences listed in order of where I rank them, ranking listed in parenthesis to right of conference name.

o Number of bowl eligible teams and number of bowl teams from conference listed inside parenthesis to right of conference name.

o Bowl teams in bold; conference champions in bold italics; bowl eligible teams not invited to the postseason in italics.

Southeastern Conference (Rank: #1; 9 Bowl Eligible; 9 Bowl Teams)

SEC East

1. Florida (7-1) 11-1 [12-2]
2. Georgia (7-1) 10-2 [11-2]
3. South Carolina (5-3) 8-4 [9-4]
4. Kentucky (2-6) 6-6 [7-6]
5. Tennessee (2-6) 5-7
6. Vanderbilt (0-8) 1-11

SEC West

1. Alabama (7-1) 11-1 [13-1]
2. Arkansas (5-3) 9-3 [9-4]
3. Auburn (5-3) 9-3 [10-3]
4. LSU (4-4) 8-4 [9-4]
5. Mississippi State (2-6) 5-7
6. Mississippi (2-6) 6-6 [7-6]

SEC Championship Game

Alabama (12-1) over Florida (11-2)

Offensive Player of the Year: John Brantley-QB-Florida
Defensive Player of the Year: Cliff Mathews-DE-South Carolina
Coach of the Year: Urban Meyer-Florida

Big Ten Conference (Rank: #2; 7 Bowl Eligible; 7 Bowl Teams)

1. Iowa (7-1) 10-2 [11-2]
2. Ohio State (7-1) 11-1 [12-1]
T3. Penn State (6-2) 9-3 [9-4]
T3. Wisconsin (6-2) 10-2 [10-3]
5. Michigan (5-3) 8-4 [8-5]
6. Michigan State (4-4) 8-4 [8-5]
7. Illinois (3-5) 5-7
8. Northwestern (2-6) 6-6 [6-7]
9. Purdue (2-6) 5-7
T10. Indiana (1-7) 5-7
T10. Minnesota (1-7) 2-10

Offensive Player of the Year: Terrelle Pryor-QB-Ohio State
Defensive Player of the Year: Adrian Clayborn-DE-Iowa
Coach of the Year: Kirk Ferentz-Iowa

Atlantic Coast Conference (Rank: #3; 7 Bowl Eligible; 7 Bowl Teams)

ACC Atlantic

1. Florida State (7-1) 9-3 [9-5]
2. Clemson (6-2) 9-3 [10-3]
3. Boston College (5-3) 9-3 [9-4]
4. Maryland (2-6) 4-8
5. North Carolina State (2-6) 4-8
6. Wake Forrest (0-8) 2-10

ACC Costal

1. North Carolina (7-1) 10-2 [11-3]
2. Virginia Tech (6-2) 9-3 [10-3]
3. Miami (5-3) 7-5 [8-5]
4. Georgia Tech (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
5. Duke (3-5) 5-7
6. Virginia (1-7) 4-8

ACC Championship Game

North Carolina (11-2) over Florida State (9-4)

Offensive Player of the Year: Christian Ponder-QB-Florida State
Defensive Player of the Year: Robert Quinn-DE-North Carolina
Coach of the Year: Butch Davis-North Carolina

Big XII Conference (Rank: #4; 8 Bowl Eligible; 8 Bowl Teams)

Big 12 North

1. Nebraska (8-0) 11-1 [12-2]
2. Missouri (6-2) 10-2 [11-2]
3. Colorado (3-5) 6-6 [6-7]
T4. Kansas (2-6) 4-8
T4. Kansas State (2-6) 6-6 [6-7]
T4. Iowa State (2-6) 3-9

Big 12 South

1. Oklahoma (8-0) 12-0 [14-0]
2. Texas (6-2) 10-2 [11-2]
3. Texas A&M (4-4) 7-5 [8-5]
4. Texas Tech (3-5) 7-5 [8-5]
5. Oklahoma State (2-6) 5-7
6. Baylor (2-6) 5-7

Big 12 Championship Game

Oklahoma (13-0) over Nebraska (11-2)

Offensive Player of the Year: Landry Jones-QB-Oklahoma
Defensive Player of the Year: Jeremy Beal-DE-Oklahoma
Coach of the Year: Bob Stoops-Oklahoma

Pac 10 Conference (Rank: #5; 7 Bowl Eligible; 6 Bowl Teams)

1. Oregon (7-2) 10-2 [10-3]
2. Arizona (7-2) 10-2 [10-3]
3. Oregon State (6-3) 7-5 [7-6]
4. California (6-3) 8-4 [8-5]
5. Stanford (5-4) 7-5 [8-5]
6. *USC (5-4) 9-4
7. Washington (4-5) 6-6 [7-6]
8. UCLA (3-6) 3-9
9. Arizona State (2-7) 4-8
10. Washington State (0-9) 1-11

*USC ineligible for conference championship, rankings, bowl games, and national championship.

Offensive Player of the Year: Andrew Luck-QB-Stanford
Defensive Player of the Year: Akeem Ayers-LB-UCLA
Coach of the Year: Mike Stoops-Arizona

Mountain West Conference (Rank: #6; 5 Bowl Eligible; 5 Bowl Teams)

1. TCU (8-0) 12-0 [12-1]
2. Utah (7-1) 10-2 [10-3]
3. Air Force (5-3) 7-5 [8-5]
4. BYU (5-3) 8-4 [8-5]
5. San Diego State (4-4) 7-5 [7-6]
6. Wyoming (3-5) 5-7
7. Colorado State (2-6) 4-8
8. UNLV (2-6) 2-11
9. New Mexico (0-8) 0-12

Offensive Player of the Year: Andy Dalton-QB-TCU
Defensive Player of the Year: Carmen Messina-LB-New Mexico
Coach of the Year: Brady Hoke-San Diego State

Big East Conference (Rank: #7; 6 Bowl Eligible; 6 Bowl Teams)

1. Connecticut (5-2) 10-2 [10-3]
2. West Virginia (5-2) 9-3 [9-4]
3. Cincinnati (5-2) 8-4 [9-4]
4. South Florida (5-2) 8-4 [9-4]
5. Pittsburgh (4-3) 7-5 [8-5]
6. Rutgers (3-4) 7-5 [8-5]
7. Syracuse (1-6) 4-8
8. Louisville (0-7) 3-9

Offensive Player of the Year: BJ Daniels-QB-South Florida
Defensive Player of the Year: Greg Romeus-DE-Pittsburgh
Coach of the Year: Randy Edsall-Connecticut

Western Athletic Conference (Rank: #8; 4 Bowl Eligible; 4 Bowl Teams)

1. Boise State (8-0) 12-0 [12-1]
2. Fresno State (7-1) 10-2 [11-2]
3. Nevada (6-2) 10-3 [11-3]
T4. Louisiana Tech (4-4) 7-5 [7-6]
T4. Hawaii (4-4) 6-7
T4. Utah State (4-4) 5-7
7. Idaho (2-6) 4-9
8. New Mexico State (1-7) 2-10
9. San Jose State (0-8) 2-11

Offensive Player of the Year: Kellen Moore-QB-Boise State
Defensive Player of the Year: Jeron Johnson-SS-Boise State
Coach of the Year: Pat Hill-Fresno State

Conference USA (Rank: #9; 7 Bowl Eligible; 7 Bowl Teams)

CUSA East

1. Central Florida (7-1) 10-2 [10-4]
2. Southern Mississippi (6-2) 8-4 [8-5]
3. UAB (4-4) 5-7
4. Marshall (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]
5. East Carolina (1-7) 1-11
6. Memphis (0-8) 0-12

CUSA West

1. SMU (7-1) 9-3 [10-4]
2. Houston (6-2) 9-3 [10-3]
3. Tulsa (6-2) 9-3 [9-4]
4. UTEP (4-4) 7-5 [8-5]
5. Rice (2-6) 2-10
6. Tulane (1-7) 2-10

Conference USA Championship Game

SMU (10-3) over Central Florida (10-3)

Offensive Player of the Year: Case Keenum-QB-Houston
Defensive Player of the Year: Bruce Miller-DE-Central Florida
Coach of the Year: June Jones-SMU

Mid-American Conference (Rank: #10; 6 Bowl Eligible; 6 Bowl Teams)

MAC East

1. Kent State (7-1) 8-4 [8-6]
2. Temple (6-2) 8-4 [9-4]
3. Ohio (5-3) 7-5 [7-6]
4. Buffalo (4-4) 5-7
5. Miami (OH) (4-4) 4-8
T6. Akron (0-8) 1-11
T6. Bowling Green (0-8) 0-12

MAC West

1. Northern Illinois (8-0) 11-1 [13-1]
2. Ball State (6-2) 8-4 [8-5]
3. Western Michigan (6-2) 8-4 [8-5]
4. Toledo (3-5) 3-9
5. Central Michigan (3-5) 4-8
6. Eastern Michigan (0-8) 0-12

Mid-American Conference Championship Game

Northern Illinois (12-1) over Kent State (8-5)

Offensive Player of the Year: Bernard Pierce-RB-Temple
Defensive Player of the Year: Adrian Robinson-DE-Temple
Coach of the Year: Jerry Kill-Northern Illinois


Sun Belt Conference (Rank: #11; 3 Bowl Eligible; 2 Bowl Team)

1. Middle Tennessee State (7-1) 11-1 [12-1]
2. Troy (7-1) 9-3 [10-3]
3. Florida Atlantic (5-3) 5-7
4. North Texas (5-3) 6-6
5. Florida International (5-3) 5-7
6. Arkansas State (4-4) 4-8
T7. Louisiana-Lafayette (1-7) 1-11
T7. Louisiana-Monroe (1-7) 2-10
T7. Western Kentucky (1-7) 1-11

Offensive Player of the Year: Dwight Dasher-QB-Middle Tennessee State
Defensive Player of the Year: Jamari Lattimore-DE-Middle Tennessee State
Coach of the Year: Rick Stockstill-Middle Tennessee State


Independents (3 Bowl Eligible; 3 Bowl Teams)

1. Navy 10-5 [11-2]
2. Notre Dame 7-5 [7-6]
3. Army 6-6 [6-7]

Conference Champions

SEC: Alabama
Big Ten: Iowa
Pac 10: Oregon
ACC: North Carolina
Big 12: Oklahoma
Big East: Connecticut
MWC: TCU
WAC: Boise State
C-USA: SMU
MAC: Northern Illinois
SBC: Middle Tennessee State

BCS Teams

Oklahoma (#1)
Boise State (#2)
Oregon (Pac-10 Champ)
Iowa (Big Ten Champ)
North Carolina (ACC Champ)
Connecticut (Big East Champ)
Alabama (SEC Champ)
Ohio State (At Large)
TCU (At Large)
Florida (At Large)

Bowl Games

New Mexico Bowl
UTEP over San Diego State

Humanitarian Bowl
Fresno State over Western Michigan

New Orleans Bowl
Middle Tennessee State over Tulsa

St. Pete Bowl
South Florida over Southern Mississippi

Las Vegas Bowl
Washington over Utah

Poinsettia Bowl
Navy over BYU

Hawaii Bowl
Nevada over Central Florida

Little Caesars Bowl
Northern Illinois over Louisiana Tech

Independence Bowl
Air Force over Georgia Tech

Champs Sports Bowl
Miami over Notre Dame

Insight Bowl
Missouri over Michigan State

Eaglebank Bowl
Temple over Marshall

Texas Bowl
Texas Tech over Northwestern

Alamo Bowl
Nebraska over Arizona

Armed Forces Bowl
Houston over Army

Pinstripe Bowl
Rutgers over Colorado

Music City Bowl
Mississippi over Boston College

Holiday Bowl
Texas A&M over California

Meinike Bowl
Clemson over West Virginia

Sun Bowl
Virginia Tech over Oregon State

Liberty Bowl
Kentucky over SMU

Peach Bowl (Chick-fil-a)
LSU over Florida State

Dallas Bowl
Cincinnati over Kansas State

Outback Bowl
Auburn over Wisconsin

Citrus Bowl (Capital One)
Georgia over Penn State

Gator Bowl
South Carolina over Michigan

Rose Bowl
Iowa over Oregon

Fiesta Bowl
Ohio State over TCU

Orange Bowl
Florida over North Carolina

Sugar Bowl
Alabama over Connecticut

GMAC Bowl
Troy over Ball State

Cotton Bowl
Texas over Arkansas

Papajohns.com Bowl
Pittsburgh over Ohio

Kraft Bowl
Stanford over Kent State

BCS National Title Game
#1 Oklahoma over #2 Boise State

National Champion: Oklahoma

Final Rankings

1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama
3. Boise State
4. Ohio State
5. TCU
6. Iowa
7. Texas
8. Florida
9. Nebraska
10. Missouri

National Awards

Heisman Trophy: Terrelle Pryor-QB-Ohio State

Heisman Voting

1. Terrelle Pryor-QB-Ohio State
2. Landry Jones-QB-Oklahoma
3. Kellen Moore-QB-Boise State
4. Mark Ingram-RB-Alabama
5. Christian Ponder-QB-Florida State

Maxwell Award (Outstanding Player): Landry Jones-QB-Oklahoma
Walter Camp Award (Player of the Year): Kellen Moore-QB-Boise State
Davy O’Brien Award (National Quarterback Award): Christian Ponder-QB-Florida State
Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (Outstanding Senior Quarterback): Case Keenum-QB-Houston
Doak Walker Award (National Running Back Award): Mark Ingram-RB-Alabama
Fred Biletnikoff Award (Outstanding Wide Receiver): AJ Green-WR-Georgia
John Mackey Award (Outstanding Tight End): Lance Kendricks-TE-Wisconsin
Rimington Trophy (Outstanding Center): Mike Pouncey-C-Florida
Outland Trophy (Outstanding Interior Lineman: Marvin Austin-DT-North Carolina
Chuck Bednarik Award (Defensive Player of the Year): Robert Quinn-DE-North Carolina
Bronco Nagurski Award (Defensive Player of the Year): Adrian Clayborn-DE-Iowa
Dick Butkus Award (Outstanding Linebacker): Greg Jones-LB-Michigan State
Jim Thorpe Award (Outstanding Defensive Back): Rahim Moore-FS-UCLA
Vince Lombardi Award (Outstanding Lineman): Jared Crick-DT-Nebraska
Ted Hendricks Award (Defensive End of the Year): Robert Quinn-DE-North Carolina
Lou Groza Award (Collegiate Placekicker Award): Blair Walsh-K-Georgia
Ray Guy Award (Outstanding Punter): Drew Butler-P-Georgia
NCAA Coach of the Year Award: Chris Petersen-Boise State

Power 15

1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio State
5. Boise State
6. TCU
7. Texas
8. Iowa
9. Oregon
10. North Carolina
11. Nebraska
12. Georgia
13. Virginia Tech
14. Miami
15. Wisconsin

The Braves Blog: Houston Series Preview

After a successful week at home, the Braves will go back on the road this week with the Phillies still right behind them. Last week’s home stand would have seemed a lot better had the 2 games that the Braves lost not been heart breakers. Still, the Braves went 5-2 against the Mets and Giants, and they hung on to their lead in the NL East. The Phillies actually got it down to a game at the end of play on Friday, but the Braves managed to push the lead back to 2 by the end of the weekend. The NL East race is looking more and more like a 2-team race each day, as the Mets are now 9 games back, and the Marlins are currently 9.5 out.

Because the Phillies have been on such a great roll recently it has actually seemed like the Braves have been playing worse than they really have been. In reality, the Braves have been treading water. The Braves are now 64-47 (.577) and they have finally gotten back to a season high 17 games over .500. They are now 12-11 since the All-Star break (12-12 in their last 24 games) and 5-3 in August.

Unfortunately the Braves now have to go back out on the road where they are just 25-32 (.439) on the season. Due to offensive problems, the Braves are having to play a ton of low scoring, tight games. They are now under .500 in 1-run games (16-17) and extra inning affairs (5-6). All of the close losses and all of the work for the bullpen may catch up to the Braves at some point, especially if they don’t start scoring more runs. They need to start playing better on the road as well. Hopefully it will start this week against the Astros.

Houston Series Preview

2010 has been a lost year for the Astros. They started out losing their first 8 games. They won 8 of 10 to get back to 2 games under .500, but then went on another 8 game losing skid, and this time there was no hot streak to follow. They are now 47-63 (.427) and in 4th place in the NL Central, 16 games out of 1st. They have been outscored by 111 this season. The Astros have played much better at home, where they are 26-29 (.473). The Astros have been okay in close games. They are 10-12 in 1-run games and a freakish 6-2 in extra inning contests. However, the Stros have really struggled in blowout games. In games decided by 5 or more runs, the Astros are 9-24.

Despite seeing a number of their best players traded away, the Astros have been playing better lately. At the end of play on May 29th the Astros were a woeful 16-33. Since then they have actually gone 31-30. They are 11-10 since the All-Star break, and they had won 7 in a row before dropping their last 4 games heading into this series.

The Braves met the Astros early on in the year and used a 3 game sweep of Houston in Atlanta to save their season. The Braves had lost 9 straight to fall into last place in the East at 8-14 when Houston came to town for a 3 game series beginning April 30th. The Bravos used the Astros to regain some confidence, outscoring Houston 21-4 over the 3 games, winning by scores of 4-2, 10-1, and 7-1. It was Atlanta’s first 3 game sweep of the season.

The Astros struggle in most areas of the game, but their anemic offense is their most glaring weak spot. The Stros are 15th in the NL in runs per game; 16th in homers; 16th in walks; 15th in batting; 16th in OBP; 16th in Slugging; and 16th in OPS. There are a couple of things that the Astros do well on offense. They make a ton of contact and they have speed. They have the fewest strikeouts of any team in the NL and they are 5th in Stolen Bases. They are also 5th in the NL with a 74% success rate on stolen base attempts.

The Astros aren’t quite as bad at pitching as they are at scoring runs, but they’re still pretty bad. They are 12th in the NL runs allowed per game; 13th in ERA; and 13th in WHIP. They are 11th in the NL in starting pitching ERA and tied for 11th in Quality Starts. They are 13th in the NL in bullpen ERA and tied for 9th in Saves. However, they are 4th in the NL in Save Percentage (74%).

Houston has not been a great fielding team either. They are tied for 7th in the NL in errors, but 10th in Fielding% and 15th in Defensive Efficiency. Houston’s closer is Matt Lindstrom, but he has been suffering from back stiffness recently and was shelled in his last outing. Houston’s best starting pitcher (Roy Oswalt) was traded away and replaced by J.A. Happ. Their lineup lost Lance Berkman, but little known Chris Johnson has been powering the Houston order in recent days.

Monday

Mike Minor vs. Bud Norris

Braves fans will be watching intently on Monday night, rookie left hander Mike Minor makes his first big league appearance. With Kris Medlen suffering a season ending injury, many depressed Braves fans were encouraged by the front office’s decision to bring up Minor rather than going back to Kenshin Kawakami. Now we’ll find out if the rookie is indeed a better option. The Braves drafted Minor out of Vanderbilt with the 7th pick in the 2009 draft. At the time, the selection of Minor with the 7th pick was criticized by many around the game. Some analysts felt that the Braves had taken Minor earlier than he should have gone because they knew they could sign him easily and would not have to offer him a big signing bonus. It was thought that Minor’s “ceiling” was as a middle of the rotation starter.

So far at least, Minor is making the Braves look good and the so-called experts look bad. The biggest difference between the Mike Minor who has dominated in the minors and the guy who those experts thought he would be has been his number of strikeouts. The guys who thought Minor was a reach at #7 expected him to be a guy who “pitched to contact.” But ever since becoming a professional Minor has been overpowering hitters. In 4 starts for Class A Rome late last season, Minor went 0-1, allowing just 1 run on 10 hits with 17 K and 0 BB over 14 innings. Minor began 2010 at AA Mississippi where his record was not indicative of his performance on the mound. In 15 starts he was just 2-6, but he posted a 4.03 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP with 109 K over 87 innings. Minor was moved up to AAA Gwinnett and has dominated ever since, going 4-1 in 6 starts with a 1.89 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 37 K over 33.1 innings.

Combined between AA and AAA this season, Minor is 6-7 in 21 starts with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and 146 K over 120.1 innings. So why has Minor been so much more of a strikeout pitcher than expected? Apparently a surprising rise in velocity has been a key factor. The biggest factor may be the simple fact that scouting is an inexact science, particular when it comes to young pitchers.

Bud Norris is a stopgap right hander who the Astros would prefer not to have in their rotation. He seems like a guy who would be better used out of the pen, as he throws hard but doesn’t have a lot of stamina. Unfortunately, Houston doesn’t have many better options at this point. In 16 starts this season, Norris is 4-7 with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. He has 91 K over 86 innings but has only 3 quality starts, and the Astros are just 6-10 with him on the mound.

Norris hasn’t been any better at Enron Field in 2010, going 1-4 with a 6.10 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 8 home starts. He has struck out 47 over 41.1 innings but has only 1 QS at home, and the Astros are just 2-6 in his 8 home starts. Norris has been better lately. Going back to July 3rd, Norris is 2-2 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over his last 6 starts. 2 of his 3 QS have come over that stretch, though the Astros are just 2-4 in those 6 games. Interestingly, Norris has only 31 K over 37.1 innings during that span. Norris took the loss in the finale of the 3 game series in Atlanta back on May 2nd, going 4.2 innings and allowing 7 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks with 3 K as the Braves won 7-1.

Tuesday

Jair Jurrjens vs. J.A. Happ

Jurrjens is now 4-4 in 12 starts this season with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has 6 QS and the Braves are 7-5 with him on the mound. He has pitched well since coming back from the DL, going 4-1 in 7 starts with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has thrown 4 QS in those 7 starts and the Braves have a 5-2 record in those games. Unfortunately, Jurrjens has had some major problems on the road in 2010. He is 0-4 in 6 road starts with a 7.63 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He has just 2 QS on the road and the Braves are just 1-5 in his 6 appearances on the road in 2010.

Happ was sent to the Astros in the deal that brought Oswalt to the Phillies. Happ has spent much of the last 2 seasons on the DL. In 5 starts this season he is 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.79 ERA over just 22.1 innings. He has only 1 QS. His first start with the Astros went well, as he held the Brewers scoreless on 2 hits and 4 walks with 6 K over 6 innings at home to get the victory. His next start did not go well. In just 1 inning of work in St. Louis, Happ allowed 7 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks with just 1 K, taking the loss.

The Braves know Happ well from his time with the Phillies. And most of what the Braves know of the lefty isn’t very good. In 6 appearances against the Braves, Happ is 2-0 with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 32.1 innings. In 5 starts against the Braves, Happ is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 30.1 innings. The Phils were 4-1 in those 5 games, and Happ tossed Quality Starts in 4 of 5 tries.

Wednesday

Tommy Hanson vs. Wandy Rodriguez

There is good news and bad news concerning Hanson at this point. The good news is that he is pitching much more like his 2009 self. The bad news is that his improved performance on the mound has coincided with a downturn in the Braves’ luck with him on the mound. Hopefully that will all get straightened out over the final two months of the season. Hanson is now 8-8 in 23 starts with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and 130 K over 134 innings. He has 12 QS and the Braves are 13-10 with Hanson on the mound.

Hanson is 4-4 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP in 11 road starts this season. He has struck out 67 over 65 innings and the Braves are 7-4 in his 11 starts away from home. He has 6 QS away from Turner Field this season. In his last 7 starts going back to July 3rd, Hanson has posted a 2.05 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with 40 K over 44 innings but has just a 1-3 record. He has thrown a QS in 5 of his last 7 starts but the Braves are just 2-5 in those 7 games. Hanson pitched the opener of the 3 game series with the Astros in Atlanta back on April 30th and it was one of his better starts of the year. He went 8 and allowed only 2 runs on 4 hits and 0 BB with 7 K to get the win.

Wandy Rodriguez isn’t having as good a year as he had last season, as he is 9-11 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 22 starts. He has thrown 13 QS and the Stros are 10-12 with him on the mound. However, Rodriguez has always been a different pitcher at home. In 11 starts at Enron this season Rodriguez is 6-5 with a 3.18 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and 64 K over 65 innings. 8 of his 11 home starts have been quality starts.

Rodriguez has been much better recently. He is 6-1 over his last 8 starts going back to June 24th, posting a 1.86 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with 50 K over 53.1 innings. He has 7 QS over his last 8 and the Astros are 6-2 in those games. Going back to July 25th, Rodriguez is 2-0 in 3 starts with a 0.42 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP with 23 K over 21.1 innings. All 3 of this last 3 starts have been QS and the Stros are 2-1 in those games. Rodriguez took the loss against the Braves on May 1st in Atlanta, allowing 5 runs (2 earned) on 10 hits and a walk with 5 K over 5 innings.

Outlook

Compared with the last month or so this does not seem like such a challenging series for the Braves. However, Houston has been playing better than their record suggests over the last couple of months, and they have been a better team at home. The Braves, frankly, have not been a good road team. In addition, the Braves have a pitcher making his first ever appearance in the Majors on Monday, and Houston has a pair of left handers going for them in this series. Happ has always given the Braves problems and Rodriguez is a tough matchup at home. With all of this considered, I think winning 2 of 3 would definitely be a success.

The Braves Blog: San Francisco Series Preview

The Braves are in a dogfight. There’s no doubt about it. They aren’t playing well, the Phillies are breathing down their necks, the injuries are piling up, and there don’t seem to be any easy days on the schedule. The Braves are having to fight for every win right now, and every loss is excruciating. Even the wins have been painful lately. Last Friday they pulled out a thriller over the Reds in Cincinnati, but in the process they lost their best player to the DL. On Wednesday they took the rubber match over the hated Mets to gain a series win, but along the way they lost Kris Medlen, probably for a long time. All the while the Phillies are cutting away at that lead.

The Braves are still in 1st place but their lead over the Phils is down to just 2 games. The Marlins are 7.5 back and the Mets are 8 games out. The Braves are now 61-46 (.570) and 36-14 at home, but they are just 9-11 in their last 20 games (9-10 since the All-Star break). They have a +80 run differential, but they are just 15-16 in 1-run games and 5-5 in extra innings. The offense has stalled out and the bullpen has faltered. That pen is getting work each and every night. Any mistake made in the field or on the bases is magnified, as runs are scarce and leads precious.

Yes, the last few weeks have been stressful, and unfortunately, things aren’t going to get any easier in the near future. Prado is still 10 to 15 days away from returning. Medlen is more than likely done for the year. And now the Braves will have to host the red hot Giants in a 4-game series this weekend. Not exactly the squad you want to be facing when you’re not getting any big hits and you’re struggling to score runs. You don’t want to be overly dramatic and panicky with 55 games remaining on the schedule, but the Braves season could very well be on the line. We are going to learn something about the Braves this weekend. I feel confident about that at least.

San Francisco Series Preview

The Giants are a half game ahead of the Braves in the NL standings with a record of 62-46 (.574). They are in 2nd place in the NL West, a game behind the Padres. San Fran has a +89 run differential and they are 29-26 on the road. The Giants are 17-16 in 1-run games and 7-6 in extra innings. Unfortunately for us Braves people, the Giants are coming to Atlanta on quite a roll. Despite losing on Wednesday to the Rockies and Ubaldo Jimenez, the G-Men are 15-5 in their last 20 games. Things have changed dramatically over the last month. On July 4th, the Giants lost a heartbreaker to the Rockies in Colorado, 4-3, in 15 innings, to fall to 41-40, exactly halfway through their season. They have since gone 21-6.

The Braves played the Giants very early on in the 2010 season, going out to San Fran for a 3 game series from 4/9 to 4/11. The Braves outscored the Giants 14-13 over the 3 game series, but still dropped 2 of 3. We seemed to have the opener in the bag, but Billy Wagner had his first hiccup of the season, blowing the save, and the Braves went on to lose it 5-4 in 13 innings. The Bravos won 7-2 the next day, but they lost to Tim Lincecum in the finale, 6-3, as the Giants won the series.

This Giants team is not really that much different from San Francisco teams of the past 4 or 5 years. They are a bit challenged offensively, but they have as good a pitching staff as there is in the NL. And the Giants aren’t a terrible offensive team. They are 9th in runs per game and 9th in homers, but those numbers are affected by their home park. The G-Men are actually 4th in the NL in batting average; 7th in OBP; 7th in Slugging; and 8th in OPS. They don’t draw a ton of walks (10th in the NL) but they do make good contact (4th in strikeouts). One thing the Giants do not do well is run. The Giants are 15th in the NL in stolen bases, and their 63% success rate is dead last in the National League. They also lead the league in ground ball double plays by a wide margin.

Whatever offensive struggles the Giants have, their pitching more than makes up for it. SF is 2nd in runs allowed per game and ERA. The Giants are tied 2nd in the NL in complete games; 2nd in complete game shutouts; tied for 3rd in team shutouts; 5th in WHIP; and 1st in K/9. They are 1st by a mile in saves and they also lead the NL with a 78% save success rate. Their 11 blown saves are tied for the 3rd fewest in the league. The Giants are 2nd in both starting pitching ERA and bullpen ERA. In the field, the Giants do a good job helping out the talented starting pitchers and relievers. The Giants have committed the fewest errors in the NL, they are 2nd in Fielding Percentage, and they are 2nd in Defensive Efficiency.

Thursday

Tim Lincecum vs. Jair Jurrjens

Obviously the toughest test for Braves batters during the series will come in the opener, as they face the 2-time defending NL Cy Young award winner. Lincecum is in the midst of another excellent season. However, the Braves will not be facing the Lincecum from 2008-2009. There’s no question that Lincecum has lost a little something in 2010. His velocity is down and he’s even modified his freakish delivery. To be sure, Lincecum is the ace of the Giants staff and one of the best pitchers in the game. In 22 starts, Lincecum is 11-4 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He has 1 shutout and 152 K in 145.1 innings. Obviously those are great numbers, but they are off significantly from his dominant 2008 and 2009 stats.

The important thing is that Lincecum’s presence on the mound is still leading the Giants to wins most of the time. They are 16-6 in his 22 starts. He has tossed 16 quality starts in 22 games. And Lincecum’s numbers aren’t inflated (or deflated?) by Barry Bonds Park. In 11 starts on the road this year, Lincecum is 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. The Giants are 9-2 in his 11 road starts and he has thrown a quality start in 8 of those games. The Giants have won his last 5 starts overall. The Braves have already lost to Lincecum once in 2010. Back on April 11th, Lincecum went 7 innings and allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits and a walk while fanning 10, getting the win in a 6-3 Giants victory at Barry Bonds Park. The only run the Braves scored off of him came on a solo homer, and that’s often the only way you can score on an ace the likes of Lincecum.

Jurrjens has really been pitching well since coming off the DL. In his last few outings Jurrjens has been hurt by the reality that the Braves can’t afford to go to the bullpen in the 7th inning of every game, the way they did during much of the first half. As a result, Jurrjens has taken some lumps later in the game in recent starts which have spoiled very solid performances. In his last appearance he had allowed only 1 run through 6 before giving up 4 to the Reds in the 7th. Overall he is now 3-4 in 11 starts with a 4.62 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He has 5 quality starts and the Braves are 6-5 with him on the mound. Double J has pitched well at Turner Field, where he is 3-0 in 5 starts with a 1.71 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has fanned 27 over 31.2 innings at home this season. Jurrjens has 3 quality starts at home in 2010 and the Braves have won all 5 of his home starts.

Friday

Barry Zito vs. Tommy Hanson

Zito has quietly had a very good season for San Francisco. The veteran lefty is 8-6 in 22 starts with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has thrown 1 complete game and 16 quality starts in 22 tries. The Giants are 13-9 with Zito on the mound. As you might expect, he hasn’t been quite as good away from Barry Bonds Park. In 10 road starts he is 2-4 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, though he did pitch a complete game on the road earlier this year. He has thrown 5 QS in 10 games on the road, and the Giants are 5-5 in those 10 games.

Unfortunately, Zito has been on a serious roll recently. Zito is just 1-2 over his last 4 games, but in 28.2 innings during those 4 starts he has posted a 1.88 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with 23 K. Each of his last 4 starts have been quality starts. He has allowed 4 dingers over those last 4 starts, and the Giants are just 2-2 in those games.

I’m almost afraid to say anything, but Tommy Hanson might be starting to find his good stuff. Strangely, as Hanson has started to pitch better on a more consistent basis, the Braves have begun to have worse luck with him on the mound. Hanson is now just 8-8 in 22 starts with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He has struck out 127 in 127 innings. Tommy has 11 quality starts and the Braves are now 13-9 with him on the mound.

In 11 starts at the Ted this year Hanson is 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has 5 QS in 11 attempts at home and the Braves are 6-5 in those games. Over his last 6 appearances Hanson has been solid, despite a 1-3 record. He has posted a 2.19 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP with 37 K over 37 innings in those last 6 starts, but the Braves are just 2-4 in those games. Hanson has thrown quality starts in 4 of his last 6 appearances, though he has given up 5 unearned runs during that time.

Matt Cain vs. Tim Hudson

Cain is kind of a hard guy for me to figure out. He’s no longer the power pitcher he looked like he would be when he first came up, but he has certainly developed into very good starting pitcher. The Giants have a strange habit of underperforming in Cain’s games. He is just 9-8 in 22 starts this season despite a 2.98 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He has pitched 3 complete games already in 2010, including a pair of shutouts. Amazingly, though Cain has thrown quality starts in 17 of 22 appearances, the G-Men are just 11-11 in those games.

Cain’s numbers are not as good on the road as they are at home but they’re still solid. In 11 road starts this year he is 3-5 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He has 2 complete games and a shutout on the road this season, and he has thrown quality starts in 9 of 11 tries, but the Giants are somehow just 4-7 in his 11 road starts. Like Zito, Cain has been rolling as of late. He’s 3-0 in his last 4 starts with a 1.52 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. Cain has fanned 25 in 29.2 innings over those last 4 outings, tossing a QS in all 4 games, with the Giants going 4-0.

Tim Hudson has been absolutely brilliant for Atlanta this season. You just wonder if he’ll be able to maintain this level throughout the entire season. The problem is that he almost has to if the Braves are going to make the playoffs. I’ve said similar things in earlier blogs, but if Hudson does finish the season strong and the Braves do get back to the postseason it will go down as one of the great seasons for any pitcher in Atlanta Braves history. In 22 starts Huddy is 12-5 with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He has posted quality starts in 18 of 22 games. Huddy has 1 complete game this year and the Braves are 13-9 with him on the mound.

In 10 starts at Turner Field this season Hudson is 7-3 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. 9 of his 10 home starts have been quality starts. In his last 3 outings Huddy has gone 3-0 with a 0.87 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 20.2 innings, posting a QS in all 3 appearances. Huddy has already faced the Giants in 2010. Back on April 9th it looked like Hudson would get the victory after he went 7 innings and held the Giants to 2 runs on 3 hits and no walks, but a blown save left Huddy with a no-decision and the Braves with a 5-4 loss in extra innings.

Sunday

Jonathan Sanchez vs. Derek Lowe

It looks like Sanchez is just always going to have some problems with control, but otherwise he’s turned into a pretty solid left handed starter. Sanchez has made 22 starts in 2010 (along with 1 relief appearance, 0.1 innings, 1 K) and is 8-6 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He has fanned 136 over 128 innings. Sanchez has only 9 quality starts due to the fact that his pitch count elevates so quickly that he isn’t able to pitch deep into games. Still, the Giants are 14-8 with him on the mound.

Pitching away from Barry Bonds Park has had no effect on Sanchez in 2010. He is 3-3 in 11 road starts with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He has 5 quality starts in 11 tries on the road this year and the Giants are 7-4 in those 11 games. Sanchez faced the Braves in the opener of the series in San Fran back in April, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks with 6 K over just 4.1 innings. He appeared headed for the loss but ended up getting a no-decision as the Giants stunned the Braves in extra innings, 5-4.

Derek Lowe is…pretty much Derek Lowe. He’s now 10-9 in 23 starts with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has managed just 10 quality starts over 23 appearances this season, and the Braves are now under .500 at 11-12 in his games. On the positive side, Lowe is 7-3 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 11 starts at home this season. He has thrown 5 quality starts in 11 tries at home and the Braves are 7-4 in those games. Lowe got the “W” in the Braves’ only victory during their series in San Fran back in April, but it was a typical “he really didn’t pitch that well” Lowe start. He gave up only 1 run over 6 innings and struck out 4 but he allowed 4 hits and walked 7 men. The Braves won it for Lowe, 7-2.

Outlook

This series is a little scary. It’s not that hard to imagine the Braves getting swept. I’m not saying that’s going to happen but it’s believable at this point. The Braves are struggling right now and they are welcoming in a team that is clicking on all cylinders and has been winning constantly for a month. The Braves will see a tough pitcher in all 4 games, including one of the game’s best in the opener, as well as 2 left handers. The Giants have also been a good road team this season. Also, the Giants have both good starting pitching and a solid pen, and that combination kind of takes one of the Braves’ main strengths away, as taking pitches, working for walks, and wearing down the starter doesn’t have as much value. The Giants do not often hurt themselves either. This will be a tough one, and I’d be quite content with a split, even if we are at home, and even though that might mean we’d be tied with the Phillies by the end of Sunday.

The Braves Blog: Cincinnati Series Preview

We’ve all seen the standings change dramatically over a short period of time before. But it has still been a bit alarming for Braves fans to see just how quickly the lead in the NL East has shrunk in recent days. A couple of weeks ago the Braves were fairly comfortable atop the division. Now it seems all but inevitable that the Braves will lose their hold on 1st place.

So what the hell’s gone so badly wrong? It’s not that the Braves are playing terribly. To be sure they are struggling in a way that they haven’t in months. They are 6-8 in their last 14 games. They have lost their last 2 series and they’ve won only 1 of 4 series since the All-Star break. On the other hand, they haven’t lost more than 2 games in a row for over a month. The problem is that Atlanta’s stumble has coincided with Philly catching fire. The Phils have won 8 straight and now they have added Roy Oswalt for virtually nothing.

This isn’t exactly the best time for the Braves to be playing another 1st place team on the road. The Braves are 58-43 but their lead in the NL East is now down to 2.5 games. They are just 15-14 in 1-run games and 24-30 on the road. Over the last couple of weeks the Braves have struggled in just about every area of the game at one time or another. Against the Brewers their starters were off. Their closer blew back to back saves in 2 different series. Against the Nats this week the Braves scored just 6 runs in 3 games. There have been costly defensive mistakes in several losses. And now they go to Cincinnati where they will face 3 tough pitchers and the best offensive club in the league.

Cincinnati Series Preview

If not for the Padres, the Reds would be the biggest surprise in baseball this season. For me, it’s not that the Reds are in 1st place that is so surprising; it’s that it all seems to be completely legit. The Reds don’t have a lot of glaring weaknesses and they’ve been consistent. After a disastrous 4 game sweep at the hands of the Phillies in the last series before the All-Star break, I really thought the Reds might wilt in the 2nd half. That hasn’t happened yet. They are now 57-46 (.553) and in 1st place in the NL Central by percentage points over the Cardinals. At this point, I would say they look like a safer bet than St. Louis to hang in the race to the finish.

The Reds are 31-22 (.585) at home and they come into this series 8-5 in their last 13 games. They haven’t had great luck in close games, as they are 7-6 in extra innings and 17-18 in 1-run games. Back in May, the Braves won both games of a 2 game series with the Reds in Atlanta, taking each game by 1 run. The Braves could easily have lost both of those games. In the first game they blew a 4-0 lead, allowing 3 runs in the 8th and 1 in the 9th, before winning on a 2 out RBI double by Jason Heyward in the bottom of the 9th. The second game was of course the Brooks Conrad walk off grand slam game, when the Braves scored 7 runs in the 9th to win 10-9. The comeback could not have happened without the 4 errors committed by the Reds, along with several other defensive miscues that were not ruled errors.

For years now the Reds have commonly been among the highest scoring teams in the NL. The band box of a stadium that they play their home games in has helped in that regard, and they have usually had boppers spread throughout their lineup. The difference this season is that the Reds are not just among the best offensive clubs in the NL, they are clearly the very best. The Reds lead the NL in runs per game, average, slugging, and OPS. They are 2nd in homers and OBP. They are even 4th in stolen bases, although they have a low success rate of just 68% (hey, it’s Dusty Baker’s team. What do you expect?). They are below average in walks and strikeouts, but they aren’t at the very bottom in either of those categories. They are just solid and tough to pitch against.

Another difference for the Reds is that this season their great hitting has not been negated by terrible pitching. The Reds aren’t a great pitching team but they’ve done well enough to make the offensive support stand up. They are 10th in the NL in ERA and 8th in WHIP. They are 10th in both starting pitching ERA and bullpen ERA. The Reds have been amassing a stable of quality young pitchers for some time now and it’s starting to pay off. But the biggest difference has been in the defense. While 10th in the NL in ERA, the Reds are 7th in runs allowed per game. That’s largely due to the great glove work, as they are tied 2nd in the NL in errors; 2nd in Fielding Percentage; and 3rd in Defensive Efficiency.

For the third straight series the Braves will be going into a place where they have flat out struggled over the years. Since it’s opening in 2003, the Braves are just 12-17 at The Great American Ballpark. Actually, the Braves are 23-28 against the Reds overall during that time. With the notable exception of 2005, the Reds have been a major stumbling block for the Braves in recent years, often tripping up the Braves at the most inopportune time. Back in 2005 it was a 4 game series at the GAB in June that the Braves used as a spring board to get them rolling and on their way to a 14th consecutive division title (though even in that series the Braves blew a lead in the finale and lost a chance for a 4-game sweep). The Braves were 5-2 in Cinci that season and 7-3 against the Reds overall. In the other 6 seasons since the GAB opened in ’03, the Braves are just 7-15 against the Reds on the road and 16-25 overall.

Worse than the record has been the way that the Braves have lost many of those games. Consider, in 2007 the Braves played 4 games in Cinci and outscored the Reds 30-25, yet they lost 3 of the 4 games. At home or on the road, the Braves have lost a ton of close games to Cincinnati over the last few years. That’s one of the reasons it was so gratifying to burn the Reds in back to back games earlier this season. From 2003-2009, the Braves went 4-11 against the Reds in 1-run games and 3-7 against them in extra inning games. From 2007 to 2009 alone, the Braves went 1-6 against the Reds in 1-run games and 0-5 in extra inning affairs.

Friday

Kris Medlen vs. Johnny Cueto

The Braves have tinkered with Medlen lately, taking him in and out of the rotation, apparently in an attempt to limit his innings. While I fully understand the desire to be careful with the young righty, it’s been a bit annoying because he hasn’t responded well to the changes, and he had been one of the most consistent starting pitchers for the Braves this season. Medlen has pitched in 29 games in 2010, 12 as a starter and 17 as a reliever. He is 6-2 overall with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. In 12 starts Medlen is 5-0 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He has thrown 7 Quality Starts and the Braves are 11-1 in his 12 starts.

On the road, Medlen has a 4.05 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 15 appearances, 7 as a starter. He has a 4-1 record on the road. Medlen is coming off of his worst start of the season. Last week in Florida, Medlen went 6 and allowed 5 runs on 8 hits and a walk with 8 K. He got a no-decision in a game the Braves eventually came back to win 10-5.

Cueto doesn’t blow anyone away, mostly because, well, he doesn’t blow that many hitters away. But he has been very good in 2010. He is 10-2 in 20 starts with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has 11 QS and the Reds are 13-7 with him on the mound. Cueto has 1 complete game shutout this season. His numbers at home are not quite as good as on the road but that’s to be expected. He is 5-1 in 9 starts at the GAB with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He has thrown QS in 6 of his 9 home starts and the Reds are 6-3 in those games.

Cueto has really been on a roll over his last 7 starts. Since June 18th, Cueto is 4-1 with a 0.96 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 46.2 innings. Cueto has thrown 5 QS over those last 7 starts, though the Reds are just 4-3 in those games.

Saturday

Jair Jurrjens vs. Bronson Arroyo

Jurrjens was not great in his last outing but he has been pretty solid since coming back from the DL. In 10 starts overall this year he is 3-3 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He has 5 QS and the Braves are 6-4 with him on the mound. In his 5 starts since returning from the DL, Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 31.2 innings. He has made 3 QS over that stretch and the Braves are 4-1 in those 5 games. Jurrjens’ numbers on the road still look awful, as he is 0-3 with a 7.88 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 5 starts away from Turner Field. He’s pitched 2 QS on the road this year and the Braves are only 1-4 in his 5 road starts.

Arroyo is a hard guy to figure out. At times he looks like an average pitcher at best. He is also capable of going through stretches of dominance. Fortunately for the Reds, Arroyo has been good more often than not in 2010. He is 10-6 in 21 starts with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has tossed 2 CG and 12 QS. The Reds are 13-8 with Arroyo on the mound.

Like Cueto, Arroyo’s numbers are not quite as good at home due to the GAB being such a hitter’s park. He is 4-3 in 10 home starts and the Reds are just 5-5 in those games. He has a 4.61 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP at home. Arroyo has thrown 5 QS and 1 CG at home in 2010. Arroyo has also been very hot lately. In fact, Arroyo’s hot stretch began on June 17th, a day before Cueto really got rolling. Over his last 8 starts, Arroyo is 5-3 with a 3.29 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. 6 of his last 8 starts have been QS.

Sunday

Tommy Hanson vs. Edinson Volquez

Ugh. Watching Hanson pitch lately has been almost as unpleasant as watching Derek Lowe pitch. He’s very frustrating. He can’t quite put it all together and shut the opposition down like you think he’s capable of doing. He struggles to put hitters away at times. He loses control out of the blue. He makes mistakes that always seem to come back to bite.

Hanson is now just 8-7 in 21 starts with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has made 10 QS and the Braves are 13-8 in his 21 appearances. On the road Hanson is 4-3 in 10 starts with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He has 5 QS on the road and the Braves are 7-3 in his 10 road starts. Since July 3rd Hanson is just 1-2 in 5 starts, but he has pitched fairly well during that stretch, posting a 2.43 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 29.2 innings. He has thrown 3 QS over those last 5 starts but the Braves have managed only a 2-3 record in those games.

Hanson is the only Braves starter other than Kenshin Kawakami who has faced the Reds in 2010. Hanson has had a number of awful appearances this season but his start against the Reds back on May 20th was his worst of all. He lasted only 1.2 innings and allowed 8 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks with 2 K. Amazingly, Hanson ended up taking a no-decision in that game, as Conrad and the Braves shocked Dusty’s boys with a miracle 10-9 win.

It was the 2nd inning that did Hanson in that day, and if his 2010 season has been a bit of a disappointment so far, the 2nd inning has been the cause. To be honest about the situation, Hanson’s 2nd inning problem has gotten close to ridiculous. Outside of the 2nd inning, Hanson has pitched pretty darn well this year. In 99 innings of work excluding the 2nd inning, Hanson has a 2.82 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, with opposing batters hitting just .240/.311/.335/.646 off him. He has allowed 5 homers and hit 8 batters in those 99 innings while averaging 9.64 K/9.

And then there are his 2nd inning numbers. Over 20.2 innings of work, Hanson has allowed 26 runs (22 earned) on 36 hits and 6 walks for a 9.58 ERA and a 2.52 WHIP. Batters have hit .391/.452/.543/.995 off of him with 3 homers in the 2nd inning. He has plunked 5 batters in the 2nd inning and has averaged just 6.97 K/9. Those are pretty amazing numbers.

And the fact that his problem has been the 2nd inning makes it all the more weird. Lots of pitchers have problems in later innings, especially when they are young, as they start to lose some of their stuff after a certain number of pitchers. Some pitchers have consistently had trouble in the 1st inning but would then get loose and settled in. Tom Glavine often had difficulty in the 1st inning, particularly during the first half of his career. I’ve even heard of guys struggling in the 4th inning, as they go through the lineup for a 2nd time. But I’ve never heard of anyone consistently sucking in the 2nd inning. Nor does there appear to be any logical reason for it. In fact, the 2nd inning is usually a low scoring inning, as it’s normally the lower part of the batting order at the plate. The only inning that has averaged less runs than the 2nd in the MLB this season is the 9th. Yet for Hanson it’s been a nightmare. It’s like he’s been pitching at Coors Field pre-humidor during the 2nd inning this season.

Edinson Volquez has just recently come back from elbow surgery but he is probably the most talented pitcher on the Reds staff. In 3 starts since returning on July 17th, Volquez is 1-1, having allowed 11 runs on 14 hits and 10 walks with 16 K over just 12 innings. He has not been very effective in either of his last 2 starts. Hopefully he will not find his best stuff on Sunday.

Outlook

I’m not overly confident. You could probably say that I’m scared. I’m a little bit worried that we might all lie awake in bed on Sunday night, unable to sleep, realizing that the entire lead is gone and we are now behind the Phillies in the East. For that to happen the Braves would have to lose all 3 games, and the Phils would have to sweep the Nats. It’s not hard to imagine, is it? We need to get a win. A series win would be awesome. But at the very least we need to avoid a sweep.

The Braves Blog: Stats and Trends

A Stat-tastic Little Number

So things have gotten tighter in the NL East. The deadline is approaching. We’ve blown some leads and we’re in a bit of a rut. Oh yeah, and tonight we have to face Strasburg. But while we wait to see what comes next, here are some mostly positive numbers for Braves people to consume.


Bats heating up on Cue

The Braves bats normally spring to life around the All-Star break, and so far in the 2nd half Atlanta’s hitters are having quite a bit of success. Check out these post-break numbers.

Jason Heyward: 10 games, 17 for 39 (.436/.522/.487/1.009) with 2 doubles, 10 runs, 3 RBI, 6 BB, 7 K, and 2 SB in 3 attempts.

Matt Diaz: 9 games, 8 for 21 (.381) with 2 doubles, 3 homers, 6 runs, 9 RBI, 1 BB, and 3 K.

Brian McCann: 9 games, 11 for 33 (.333/.421/.606/1.027) with 3 homers, 3 runs, 14 RBI, 4 BB, and 9 K.

Eric Hinske: 9 games, 6 for 18 (.333) with a double, 2 homers, 5 RBI, 4 BB, and 4 K.

Alex Gonzalez: 10 games, 13 for 40 (.325) with 4 doubles, a triple, 4 runs, 2 RBI, 3 BB, and 7 K.

Melky Cabrera: 10 games, 8 for 27 (.296) with 3 doubles, a triple, 3 runs, 2 RBI, 3 BB, and 3 K.

Chipper Jones: 9 games, 7 for 25 (.280) with a double, a homer, 6 RBI, 5 BB, and 4 K.

Martin Prado: 10 games, 13 for 48 (.271) with 3 doubles, a triple, 3 homers, 10 runs, 3 RBI, 3 BB, and 4 K.


Other Batting Numbers

Brian McCann has once again become a feared and productive bat in the Atlanta lineup. Since May 11th, Mac has played in 58 games and has hit .293/.378/.512/.890 with 12 doubles, 11 homers, 42 RBI, 24 BB, and 44 K.

Chipper continues to battle injuries, but after looking totally finished for much of the first half, CJ has been much better since mid-June, even showing occasional power. Since June 15th, Chipper has played in 30 games, hitting .300/.388/.490/.878 with 7 doubles, 4 homers, 17 RBI, 15 BB, and 17 K.

No doubt Martin Prado has cooled off a bit; it was inevitable. But while Tino’s average has slipped, he has hit with power more often in recent games. And Martin’s “slump” has been more apparent due to the fact that he comes to the plate more often than anyone else in the Braves lineup. Even still, since June 10th, Prado has played in 38 games and has hit .319/.365/.566/.931 with 11 doubles, 3 triples, 8 homers, 27 runs, 14 RBI, 12 BB, 22 K, and 3 SB in 3 attempts. Pretty damn impressive. I’d like to seem him walk more, but that’s being a little picky at this point.

Troy Glaus is the one Braves hitter who is still locked in a bit of a mid-season slump (Excluding Nate McLouth of course because he just sucks). The strange thing is that Glausy is still walking and he isn’t striking out all that much. He just isn’t hitting for any power at all. The lack of power also takes a toll on the number of hits he gets, as he is mostly a fly ball hitter and he doesn’t have the speed to beat out anything on the ground. Since June 24th, Glaus has played in 23 games, hitting just .175/.323/.238/.561 with 5 doubles, 0 homers, 6 RBI, 15 BB, and 12 K. Clearly the average, the slugging, and the lack of a single homer are all discouraging. On the other hand, Glaus is still taking walks which keeps him from totally wrecking the lineup like, say, Jeff Francoeur. Hopefully Glaus will find his power stroke again soon. He could use some time off but we don’t have many other options.


Our Relief could use some Help

It’s obvious that the Braves bullpen is struggling and scrambling at this point. Unfortunately, the 2 guys with the stuff to come in and help out right now—Mike Dunn and Craig Kimbrel--are both struggling from the same inescapable problem: they simply cannot throw strikes with anywhere near enough consistency to pitch with success in the Majors.

Dunn is now 25 and is still clearly not over the control problems which led the Yankees to send him our way. Dunn’s control has been an issue in the minors and it’s a virtual cop killer-on-the-loose road block at the Major League level. In 4 appearances with the Braves this season Dunn has thrown 2.1 innings and has yet to allow a run. Good, right? Well, yes, except that he’s averaging 19.3 walks per 9 innings. He’s allowed 3 hits and 5 walks with 2 K over 2.1 innings. In his last appearance, with the Braves leading 9-0 in the 8th, Dunn came on and threw 19 pitches, with only 4 going for strikes. He walked 3 and recorded only 1 out before being pulled. In his 4 games, Dunn has thrown 29 strikes and 32 balls. I have 2 pieces of advice for the Bravos concerning Mr. Dunn. Number 1: he should be sent down now and replaced by someone who can at least make the other team swing. Number 2: the Braves should trade him to the next team that shows interest or puts any value in him. I’m sure I’m totally wrong on this, but it doesn’t seem like many guys with big arms who are too wild to pitch in the Majors at 25 end up making it.

Kimbrel’s situation is not nearly as bleak. He’s just 22 and he isn’t quite as wild. Still, he is walking too many guys at AAA, and in the Majors it has been an even bigger issue. In 8 games with the big club this season, Kimbrel has allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits and 10 walks with 15 K over 8.1 innings. Obviously he has fared better than Dunn, and once Eric O’Flaherty is healthy, I believe it would make more sense to have Kimbrel in the pen than Dunn. However, in 4 of Kimbrel’s 8 appearances with the Braves he gave up at least 2 free passes. He had just a 95-87 strike-to-ball ratio during his 8 outings. And again, the problem has persisted even at AAA.