The College Football Blog: 2011 Season Predictions

2011 College Football Predictions

o Specific conference guidelines for standings and tiebreakers used.

o Conference records in parenthesis: (#-#); regular season schedule records are open: #-#; final records after championship games and bowl games are in brackets: [#-#].

o Conferences listed in order of rank; ranking listed in parenthesis to right of each conference name.

o Number of bowl teams listed in parenthesis to right of each conference name.

o Bowl teams in bold; conference champions in bold italics.

Southeastern Conference (Rank: #1; Bowl Teams: 10)

SEC West

1. Alabama (8-0) 12-0 [14-0]

2. LSU (7-1) 11-1 [12-1]

3. Arkansas (5-3) 8-4 [9-4]

4. Mississippi State (4-4) 8-4 [9-4]

5. Auburn (2-6) 6-6 [7-6]

6. Mississippi (1-7) 5-7

SEC East

1. Georgia (6-2) 10-2 [11-3]

2. South Carolina (6-2) 10-2 [11-2]

3. Florida (4-4) 7-5 [8-5]

4. Tennessee (3-5) 7-5 [8-5]

5. Kentucky (2-6) 6-6 [7-6]

6. Vanderbilt (0-8) 3-9

SEC Championship Game

Alabama (13-0) over Georgia (10-3)

Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Murray-QB-Georgia

Defensive Player of the Year: Devin Taylor-DE-South Carolina

Coach of the Year: Mark Richt-Georgia

Big Ten Conference (Rank: #2; Bowl Teams: 9)

Big Ten Leaders

1. Ohio State (7-1) 10-2 [10-4]

2. Wisconsin (6-2) 10-2 [10-3]

3. Penn State (5-3) 8-4 [8-5]

4. Purdue (4-4) 7-5 [8-5]

5. Illinois (2-6) 5-7

6. Indiana (0-8) 4-8

Big Ten Legends

1. Nebraska (6-2) 10-2 [11-3]

2. Michigan (5-3) 8-4 [9-4]

3. Northwestern (5-3) 8-4 [9-4]

4. Iowa (4-4) 8-4 [9-4]

5. Michigan State (4-4) 8-4 [9-4]

6. Minnesota (0-8) 3-9

Big Ten Championship Game

Nebraska (11-2) over Ohio State (10-3)

Offensive Player of the Year: Dan Persa-QB-Northwestern

Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Crick-DT-Nebraska

Coach of the Year: Luke Fickell-Ohio State

Big XII Conference (Rank: #3; Bowl Teams: 6)

1. Oklahoma (9-0) 12-0 [12-1]

2. Texas A&M (8-1) 11-1 [12-1]

3. Texas (7-2) 10-2 [11-2]

4. Oklahoma State (6-3) 9-3 [9-4]

5. Missouri (5-4) 7-5 [7-6]

6. Texas Tech (4-5) 7-5 [7-6]

7. Kansas State (3-6) 5-7

8. Baylor (2-7) 4-8

9. Iowa State (1-8) 2-10

10. Kansas (0-9) 2-10

Offensive Player of the Year: Landry Jones-QB-Oklahoma

Defensive Player of the Year: Jamell Fleming-CB-Oklahoma

Coach of the Year: Mike Sherman-Texas A&M

Pac 12 Conference (Rank: #4; Bowl Teams: 7)

Pac 12 North

1. Oregon (8-1) 10-2 [12-2]

2. Stanford (7-2) 10-2 [10-3]

3. Oregon State (5-4) 7-5 [8-5]

4. Washington (4-5) 6-6 [6-7]

5. California (3-6) 6-6 [7-6]

6. Washington State (1-8) 4-8

Pac 12 South

1. *USC (7-2) 10-2

2. Arizona State (6-3) 9-3 [10-4]

3. Utah (5-4) 6-6 [6-7]

4. UCLA (4-5) 5-7

5. Colorado (2-7) 3-10

6. Arizona (2-7) 4-8

Pac 12 Championship Game

Oregon (11-2) over Arizona State (9-4)

*USC ineligible for conference championship game, conference championship, rankings, bowl games, and national championship.

Offensive Player of the Year: Andrew Luck-QB-Stanford

Defensive Player of the Year: Vontaze Burfict-LB-Arizona State

Coach of the Year: Dennis Erickson-Arizona State

Atlantic Coast Conference (Rank: #5; Bowl Teams: 8)

ACC Atlantic

1. Florida State (8-0) 11-1 [13-1]

2. Clemson (5-3) 7-5 [7-6]

3. North Carolina State (4-4) 7-5 [7-6]

4. Maryland (3-5) 5-7

5. Boston College (3-5) 5-7

6. Wake Forest (1-7) 3-9

ACC Coastal

1. Virginia Tech (8-0) 12-0 [12-2]

2. Miami (5-3) 8-4 [8-5]

3. North Carolina (3-5) 7-5 [7-6]

4. Virginia (3-5) 6-6 [6-7]

5. Georgia Tech (3-5) 6-6 [6-7]

6. Duke (2-6) 5-7

ACC Championship Game

Florida State (12-1) over Virginia Tech (12-1)

Offensive Player of the Year: EJ Manuel-QB-Florida State

Defensive Player of the Year: Brandon Jenkins-DE-Florida State

Coach of the Year: Frank Beamer-Virginia Tech

Big East Conference (Rank: #6; Bowl Teams: 5)

1. South Florida (6-1) 10-2 [10-3]

2. Cincinnati (5-2) 9-3 [10-3]

3. West Virginia (5-2) 9-3 [10-3]

4. Pittsburgh (5-2) 9-3 [9-4]

5. Connecticut (3-4) 7-5 [7-6]

6. Louisville (2-5) 5-7

7. Syracuse (1-6) 4-8

8. Rutgers (1-6) 5-7

Offensive Player of the Year: Isaiah Pead-RB-Cincinnati

Defensive Player of the Year: Bruce Irvin-DE-West Virginia

Coach of the Year: Butch Jones-Cincinnati

Mountain West Conference (Rank: #7; Bowl Teams: 5)

1. Boise State (7-0) 11-1 [11-2]

T2. TCU (5-2) 10-2 [11-2]

T2. Air Force (5-2) 9-3 [10-3]

T2. San Diego State (5-2) 8-4 [9-4]

5. Colorado State (4-4) 7-5 [7-6]

6. Wyoming (2-5) 5-7

7. New Mexico (1-6) 3-9

8. UNLV (0-7) 2-10

Offensive Player of the Year: Kellen Moore-QB-Boise State

Defensive Player of the Year: Tank Carder-LB-TCU

Coach of the Year: Troy Calhoun-Air Force

Conference USA (Rank: #8; Bowl Teams: 5)

CUSA West

1. Tulsa (7-1) 8-4 [9-5]

2. Houston (7-1) 10-2 [11-2]

3. SMU (5-3) 7-5 [8-5]

4. Rice (3-5) 3-9

5. Tulane (2-6) 5-8

6. UTEP (1-7) 2-10

CUSA East

1. Southern Mississippi (7-1) 9-3 [9-5]

2. East Carolina (5-3) 5-7

3. Central Florida (4-4) 7-5 [8-5]

4. Marshall (4-4) 5-7

5. UAB (3-5) 5-7

6. Memphis (0-8) 1-11

Conference USA Championship Game

Tulsa (9-4) over Southern Mississippi (9-4)

Offensive Player of the Year: Case Keenum-QB-Houston

Defensive Player of the Year: Vinny Curry-DE-Marshall

Coach of the Year: Bill Blankenship-Tulsa

Western Athletic Conference (Rank: #9; Bowl Teams: 2)

1. Nevada (7-0) 9-3 [9-4]

2. Idaho (4-3) 6-6 [7-6]

3. Fresno State (4-3) 6-7

4. Utah State (3-4) 5-7

5. Louisiana Tech (3-4) 5-7

6. San Jose State (3-4) 4-8

7. Hawaii (3-4) 6-7

8. New Mexico State (1-6) 3-10

Offensive Player of the Year: Bryan Moniz-QB-Hawaii

Defensive Player of the Year: Logan Harrell-DT-Fresno State

Coach of the Year: Chris Ault-Nevada

Mid-American Conference (Rank: #10; Bowl Teams: 6)

MAC West

1. Toledo (8-0) 9-3 [11-3]

2. Northern Illinois (7-1) 9-3 [9-4]

3. Western Michigan (5-3) 6-6 [6-7]

4. Eastern Michigan (3-5) 5-7

5. Ball State (2-6) 3-9

6. Central Michigan (2-6) 3-9

MAC East

1. Ohio (8-0) 9-3 [9-5]

2. Temple (6-2) 7-5 [7-6]

3. Kent State (5-3) 7-5 [7-6]

4. Miami (OH) (4-4) 5-7

5. Buffalo (2-6) 3-9

T6. Bowling Green (0-8) 1-11

T6. Akron (0-8) 1-11

MAC Championship Game

Toledo (10-3) over Ohio (9-4)

Offensive Player of the Year: Eric Page-WR-Toledo

Defensive Player of the Year: Roosevelt Nix-DE-Kent State

Coach of the Year: Tim Beckman-Toledo

Sun Belt Conference (Rank: #11; Bowl Teams: 4)

T1. Florida International (7-1) 8-4 [8-5]

T1. Louisiana-Monroe (7-1) 8-4 [8-5]

T1. Troy (7-1) 7-5 [7-6]

T4. Arkansas State (4-4) 6-6 [6-7]

T4. Middle Tennessee State (4-4) 5-7

T4. North Texas (4-4) 4-8

T7. Western Kentucky (1-7) 2-10

T7. Louisiana-Lafayette (1-7) 2-10

T7. Florida Atlantic (1-7) 1-11

Offensive Player of the Year: Lance Dunbar-RB-North Texas

Defensive Player of the Year: Jonathan Massaquoi-DE-Troy

Coach of the Year: Todd Berry-Louisiana-Monroe

Independents (Rank: #12; Bowl Teams: 3)

1. BYU 8-4 [9-4]

2. Notre Dame 7-5 [8-5]

3. Navy 6-6 [7-6]

4. Army 2-10

Bowl Teams (70)

SEC (10)

Alabama

LSU

Georgia

South Carolina

Arkansas

Mississippi State

Florida

Tennessee

Auburn

Kentucky

Big Ten (9)

Nebraska

Ohio State

Wisconsin

Penn State

Michigan

Northwestern

Iowa

Michigan State

Purdue

ACC (8)

Florida State

Virginia Tech

Miami

Clemson

North Carolina State

North Carolina

Georgia Tech

Virginia

Pac 12 (7)

Oregon

Stanford

Arizona State

Oregon State

Utah

Washington

California

Big XII (6)

Oklahoma

Texas A&M

Texas

Oklahoma State

Missouri

Texas Tech

MAC (6)

Toledo

Ohio

Northern Illinois

Temple

Kent State

Western Michigan

Big East (5)

South Florida

Cincinnati

West Virginia

Pittsburgh

Connecticut

MWC (5)

Boise State

TCU

Air Force

San Diego State

Colorado State

C-USA (5)

Tulsa

Houston

Southern Mississippi

SMU

Central Florida

SBC (4)

Troy

Florida International

Louisiana-Monroe

Arkansas State

Independents (3)

BYU

Notre Dame

Navy

WAC (2)

Nevada

Idaho

Conference Champions

SEC: Alabama

Big Ten: Nebraska

Big XII: Oklahoma

Pac 12: Oregon

ACC: Florida State

Big East: South Florida

MWC: Boise State

C-USA: Tulsa

WAC: Nevada

MAC: Toledo

SBC: Troy/FIU/ULM

Final BCS Standings

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. LSU

4. Texas A&M

5. Florida State

6. Boise State

7. Virginia Tech

8. Oregon

9. Nebraska

10. South Carolina

11. Texas

12. Georgia

BCS Bowl Teams

Alabama (#1)

Oklahoma (#2)

Florida State (ACC Champ)

South Florida (Big East Champ)

Oregon (Pac 12 Champ)

Nebraska (Big Ten Champ)

LSU (At Large)

Virginia Tech (At Large)

Texas A&M (At Large)

Boise State (At Large)

Bowl Games

New Mexico Bowl

California over Colorado State

Humanitarian Bowl

Idaho over Northern Illinois

New Orleans Bowl

Central Florida over Troy

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl

SMU over Connecticut

Poinsettia Bowl

Air Force over Nevada

MAACO Bowl

TCU over Washington

Hawai’i Bowl

Houston over Louisiana-Monroe

Independence Bowl

San Diego State over Georgia Tech

Little Caesars Bowl

Michigan State over Ohio

Belk Bowl

Notre Dame over North Carolina

Military Bowl

Navy over Virginia

Holiday Bowl

Arizona State over Missouri

Champs Bowl

West Virginia over Miami

Alamo Bowl

Texas over Stanford

Armed Forces Bowl

BYU over Southern Mississippi

Pinstripe Bowl

Cincinnati over Western Michigan

Music City Bowl

Tennessee over Temple

Insight Bowl

Michigan over Texas Tech

Meineke Bowl

Northwestern over Utah

Sun Bowl

Oregon State over North Carolina State

Liberty Bowl

Kentucky over Tulsa

Kraft Bowl

Iowa over Kent State

Chick-fil-a Bowl

Florida over Clemson

TicketCity Bowl

Purdue over Arkansas State

Outback Bowl

Georgia over Wisconsin

Capital One Bowl

South Carolina over Ohio State

Gator Bowl

Mississippi State over Purdue

Rose Bowl

Oregon over Nebraska

Fiesta Bowl

Texas A&M over Boise State

Sugar Bowl

LSU over Virginia Tech

Orange Bowl

Florida State over South Florida

Cotton Bowl

Arkansas over Oklahoma State

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Toledo over Florida International

BBVA Compass Bowl

Auburn over Pittsburgh

BCS National Championship Game

#1 Alabama over #2 Oklahoma

National Champion: Alabama

Final AP Rankings

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. LSU

4. Texas A&M

5. Florida State

6. Oregon

7. South Carolina

8. Texas

9. Boise State

10. Virginia Tech

National Awards

Heisman Trophy Award: Andrew Luck-QB-Stanford

Heisman Voting

1. Andrew Luck-QB-Stanford

2. Trent Richardson-RB-Alabama

3. Landry Jones-QB-Oklahoma

4. Denard Robinson-QB-Michigan

5. LaMichael James-RB-Oregon

6. Kellen Moore-QB-Boise State

Maxwell Award (Outstanding Player): Denard Robinson-QB-Michigan

Walter Camp Award (Player of the Year): LaMichael James-RB-Oregon

Davey O’Brien Award (National Quarterback Award): Landry Jones-QB-Oklahoma

Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (Outstanding Senior Quarterback): Kellen Moore-QB-Boise State

Doak Walker Award (National Running Back Award): Trent Richardson-RB-Alabama

Fred Biletnikoff Award (Outstanding Wide Receiver): Ryan Broyles-WR-Oklahoma

John Mackey Award (Outstanding Tight End): Michael Egnew-TE-Missouri

Outland Trophy Award (Outstanding Interior Lineman): Jared Crick-DT-Nebraska

Vince Lombardi Award (Outstanding Lineman): Brandon Jenkins-DE-Florida State

Rimington Award (Outstanding Center): Mike Brewster-C-Ohio State

Chuck Bednarik Award (Defensive Player of the Year): Courtney Upshaw-LB-Alabama

Bronko Nagurski Award (Defensive Player of the Year): Mark Barron-S-Alabama

Ted Hendricks Award (Outstanding Defensive End): Devin Taylor-DE-South Carolina

Dick Butkus Award (Outstanding Linebacker): Vontaze Burfict-LB-Arizona State

Jim Thorpe Award (Outstanding Defensive Back): Cliff Harris-CB-Oregon

Lou Groza Award (Outstanding Placekicker): Blair Walsh-K-Georgia

Ray Guy Award (Outstanding Punter): Drew Butler-P-Georgia

National Coach of the Year Award: Nick Saban-Alabama

Preseason Power 15

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. LSU

4. Florida State

5. South Carolina

6. Texas A&M

7. Oregon

8. Georgia

9. Boise State

10. Texas

11. USC

12. Ohio State

13. Stanford

14. Nebraska

15. Oklahoma State

The Braves Blog: Chicago Series Preview

Braves Update

The Braves return home for a big weekend series with the Cubbies after a 6-3 road trip against the 3 teams behind them in the NL East. This will be a special weekend with the various ceremonies and big crowds expected. Hopefully the Braves can handle their business after the celebrations and not overlook the lowly Cubs.

The Bravos are just 15-11 in the 2^nd half, and they are fortunate that the W-L record isn’t worse considering that they have outscored opponents by just 2 runs over that stretch. The Braves have benefited from some good luck lately, but the continued stellar work by the bullpen and a surprise offensive surge has also helped the team survive over the last month.

Despite the injuries and the struggles of the starting rotation, the Braves appear to be back on track for the first time since right before the All-Star break. They are finally on a roll again, having won 4 straight and 6 of 7. The Braves go into the series a season high 20 games over .500 at 69-49 (34-22 at home).

Despite owning the 2^nd best record in the NL, the Bravos are 8.5 games back of the Phils in the NL East. The good news is that they are also 5 games up on the Giants in the wildcard standings. St. Louis (6 games back) is the only other team within 10.5 games of the Braves for the WC.

Cubs Update

It’s been business as usual for the “lovable” losers from the North Side in 2011. That means lots of losing of course, this year characterized by horrible pitching and hideous play in the field. Chicago is 51-67 overall and 22-34 on the road. They are 18 games behind the Braves in the WC standings.

However, the Cubs have had better luck lately, going 14-12 in the 2^nd half, despite being outscored by 12 runs. They are 8-2 this month. The Cubs had actually won 7 straight before losing 2 in a row earlier this week. They come into the series having won their last 2 games and 9 of their last 11.

Even with a 1-run win over the Nats on Thursday the Cubs are just 17-19 in 1-run games, but they are 6-3 in extra inning affairs. That’s relevant because the Braves have played more extra inning games this season than any team in baseball.

The Cubbies are an average offensive club. They have some power but they don’t take walks and they don’t do much running. However, they are 4^th in the NL in batting average and 6^th in Slugging. Unfortunately for the Cub Faithful, Chicago has been awful in the field and on the mound. They are 15^th in the NL in runs allowed, 15^th in ERA, and 16^th in WHIP. They are also dead last in Defensive Efficiency, Errors, and Fielding Percentage. They are 14^th in double plays, last in quality start percentage, last in starters ERA, and 11^th in bullpen ERA.

Pitching Matchups

Friday: Carlos Zambrano vs. Mike Minor

Carlos Zambrano Update

Zambrano is Zambrano. No introductions needed for anybody here. He’s somehow managed a 9-6 record this season despite posting a 4.46 ERA and a 1.429 WHIP in 23 starts. “Big Z” has averaged 6.14 innings per start and has posted 13 QS. He is 6-3 on the road with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.429 WHIP in 12 starts.

Carlos has definitely been pitching better recently. He has thrown a QS in 6 of his last 8 tries, and he is 3-1 over his last 4 starts with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP over 24.2 innings.

The Braves have usually gotten the better of Zambrano. In 12 starts against Atlanta during the regular season, Zambrano is 2-4 with a 5.43 ERA and a 1.550 WHIP.

Mike Minor Update

Minor looked pretty good in his start last Sunday in New York even though his line didn’t end up looking that great: 5.2 innings, 7 hits, 4 runs, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts. He got a no-decision in a game the Braves eventually won 6-5.

Minor is now 1-2 in 7 starts on the year with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.590 WHIP. He has thrown 3 QS and averaged 5.57 IP per start. He is 1-1 in 3 starts at home with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.558 WHIP. Those numbers are pretty ugly but the team has won in each of his last 4 starts.

Saturday: Randy Wells vs. Derek Lowe

Randy Wells Update

Randy Wells finished 6^th in the NL ROY voting in 2009, but all of the so-called experts said it was a fluke. They looked pretty smart last season when Wells went 8-14 and had an ERA that was 1.21 higher than the year before. The doubters have continued to look smart this season, as Wells has been flat out terrible.

Wells is very hittable, he doesn’t strike guys out, and he doesn’t have good control. His 3-4 record in 14 starts this season is surprising given his 6.04 ERA and 1.591 WHIP. He has only 4 QS and averages 5.52 innings per start.

On the road, Wells is 1-2 in 6 starts with an ERA of 6.90 and a WHIP of 1.600. His last start was Sunday, at home against the Reds. He managed to go 7 innings, but ended up allowing 6 runs on 7 hits, including 3 dingers, with 1 walk and 1 strikeout.

For whatever reason, Wells had always looked like a stud against the Braves until last August when he was pounded for 7 runs and 3 homers in 6 innings, as the Braves rolled to a 16-5 win. Prior to that, Wells had gone at least 6 innings and allowed 2 runs or less in each of his first 3 starts against Atlanta.

Derek Lowe Update

Lowe got the win in Florida on Monday, going 6 innings and holding the Marlins to 2 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks with 3 strikeouts, as the Braves won it 8-5. But to be honest, Lowe could easily have given up 5 or 6 runs or more again. He’s 7-10 in 25 starts on the year with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.478 WHIP. He has just 11 QS and has only averaged 5.57 innings per start. He’s been even worse at Turner Field, going 2-2 in 9 starts with a 5.07 ERA and a 1.470 WHIP.

Over his last 11 appearances Lowe is 4-6, which is not a bad record considering his 6.18 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Batters have raked .321/.380/.430/.809 off of him during that stretch. The bottom line is that Lowe can’t be counted on to deliver even a mediocre performance, and he’s much, much more likely to get shelled than he is to have a better than decent start.

Sunday: Matt Garza vs. Brandon Beachy

Matt Garza Update

Matt Garza has not had the year that the Cubs and their fans hoped for when he was acquired from Tampa during the offseason. However, he’s pitched better than you might think given his 5-9 record, and he’s most certainly been their best starter this season. He’s averaged 6.12 innings over 22 starts while posting a 3.81 ERA and a 1.300 WHIP. Garza has tossed 13 QS and struck out 138 over 134.2 innings.

The good news for Braves fans is that he’s really struggled on the road, going 2-5 in 10 starts with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.518 WHIP. Still, Garza has produced a QS in 7 of his last 9 tries. He’s just 2-4 over his last 6 starts, despite posting a 2.72 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP during that time. This will be his first appearance against Atlanta.

Brandon Beachy Update

Beachy was dominant for most of the night last Tuesday before tiring in the 7^th and eventually having his night wiped out by a 3-run homer off the bat of John Buck. He ended up being charged with 2 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks with 10 K over 6.2 innings. The Braves eventually won it 4-3 but Beachy didn’t factor in the decision.

He is now 5-2 in 17 starts with a 3.43 ERA, a 1.186 WHIP, and 105 K over 97 innings. He has 11 QS in 17 tries. On the downside, he has averaged only 5.71 innings per start. Beachy is 2-1 in 8 starts at home this season, posting a 3.63 ERA and a 1.209 WHIP. He is 2-0 over his last 4 starts with a 2.52 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. The Braves have gone 3-1 in those 4 games.

Series Outlook

This is definitely a series the Braves can win or even sweep. Actually, losing this series would be a major bummer considering it would be at home against one of the worst teams in the league. They won’t have to face a left handed starter in the series and they’ll face one of the most ineffective starters in the NL this season in Wells. On the other hand, the Braves will have their 2 weakest starters pitching in this series (Minor and Lowe), while the Cubs will have their best starter going (Garza). This is a series the Braves definitely should win, but it probably won’t be easy. If you’ve been with this team night in and night out this season, you know by now that it never is.